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 WSJ interviews Burton Malkiel 50 years after Malkiel published "A Random Walk on Wall Street," putting forward the efficient market hypothesis. That hypothesis he says is till more true than ever, that the market senses information and reflects what that information says in the stock price. This means one would do better than active investors by investing in an index that reflected the broader stock market with a wide ranging basket of stocks that reflected it. By 1974 Vanguard's Bogle started the first index fund for passive investing. It did not gain support till 2 decades later, yet today half of all US investing is in index funds. Malkiel supports the index fund investment and says equities play an important role even in retirement, and says the next decade will give returns closer to 5-6% for equities. He says the important thing is not fancy shots just hitting the ball back, not making mistakes. 

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David Enrich of the NYT looks at the collapse of Signature bank and SVB Bank and the role of lobbying that led to president Trump setting up new legislation raising size of banks facing Fed regulatory scrutiny from $50 billion to $250 billion. Signature Bank and the author of the regulatory law after the financial crisis of 2008 caused by faulty bank practices -who in one of the anomalies of Congress joined the bank's board for 7 years and resigned this week-  lobbied with SVB bank for less regulation and government oversight. President Biden has learned from the mistakes of this Obama period, as shown by Jim Tankersley in his reporting in the NYT. this week. And made clear from Biden's State of the Union address in 2023, his effort to focus on cutting the deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years by getting everyone to pay their fair share of taxes.

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US inflation drops to 6% in February 2023 from 6.4% in January. It is the smallest increase since September 2021. Shelter costs rose at 0.8% matching the largest gain since the 1980's. Elsewhere costs increased at at a lower pace for food and gasoline, consumers paid less to heat homes, and prices for used cars, medical services fell. A significant impact on growth is shown for Europe from the drop in oil prices to $77 from a peak of $121 adding as much as 1 to 2 percentage points to growth. A similar impact is expected in the US by keeping prices of oil lower through increase in alternative sources of oil, US increasing oil production, and significantly increased investment in renewable sources. This will help reverse the effects of the Ukraine war on world food and energy supplies and prices through constructive action by the US and its partners in the European Union.

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The Iran Saudi talks had already taken place and there was a sense of fatigue on both sides after the prolonged war in Yemen. The Chinese mediation was able to build on this to get the two sides to discuss their differences and come to an agreement. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is very different. China's interest in ending the war in Ukraine comes from its need to not let relations with the European Union deteriorate any further, as this will affect China's economic growth. The pandemic and supply chain shift to home country manufacturing is not likely to change even if China finds a way to keep its relations with the European Union from deteriorating further, as this shift is seen by the US and the European Union as part of the new way of meeting their own strategic interests in the new world following the pandemic.

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The G20 declaration from Indonesia says that it "is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability." It called the threat of use of nuclear weapons "inadmissable." It said "most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine." Overall this was a major step forward with meetings between Biden and Xi, Trudeau and Xi of China, and discussions that led to Macron of France announcing his intention to visit China to get China to mediate for peace in Ukraine. It sets the path forward after Covid pandemic for peaceful cooperation in places other than Ukraine and efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to a close. The midterms in the US Congress also set the stage for Mr. Biden to offer a stable US participation after the volatile Trump years in peaceful competition with China, and growth in India, Africa, and other parts of Asia and Latin America.

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Democrats lost 6 Congressional districts won by Biden in 2020. This is more than any other state in the US. Wolfson, a former deputy mayor of New York City says it may have cost the Democrats the House of Representatives in 2022. It all started with redrawing of districts by Democrats in the House that was thrown out by the courts, leading to it being done by someone appointed by the court, and redrawing that was unfavorable to the Democrats. Democrats also failed to grasp the effects of laws passed that change the way judge set bail for offenses which Republicans pointed to as creating a larger crime situation. A 30% rise in crime in New York City was made an issue by Republicans in the midterms, which Democrats failed to address. The Republican majority in the House is thin and there is a sense that New York state played apart in Democrats losing the House.

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For years Apple concentrated all its iPhone production in a few factories in China. The Zhenzhou factory with 300,000 employees is one of the largest of the Apple suppliers. These suppliers including Foxconn and Luxshare work witn Apples NPI process in which manufacturing is designed around Apple designs and prototypes. For the first time WSJ reports on protests at the Zhengzhou factory over Covid controls and wages, conditions. Young people in China are no longer keen on working in these conditions and protested. Apple finally recognizes the need to reduce concentration in one country and plans to bring 40 to 45% of the production of iPhones to India. Initially it plans to bring NPI trained suppliers such as Luxshare that have facilities in Vietnam to assemble outside China. Over time suppliers in India will have to develop the needed skills, planning and engineering concentration of people to Make in India what is now Made in China.

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This WSJ editorial cites French president Macron on the provisions in the Biden Inflation Reduction Act that favor Make in the USA and how it affects foreign automobile manufacturers. WSJ also says the actions taken by Japanese, Chinese, Canadian and German governments favor their domestic industries. For decades Make in the USA was neglected hurting American workers, American communities, and creating serious even dangerous (for democracy) social gaps in society. The Biden administration is following a Make in the USA policy that is now being followed by the EU and Germany of bringing supply chains closer or back to home ground after the pandemic showed the serious shortcomings of shipping American or European manufacturing overseas. After the hollowing out of Detroit over two decades Detroit now gets a chance to come back with the rebuilding of the car industry in the renewables age.

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This means Lal Bahadur Shastri as much as Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi in her own way, other prime ministers such as Atal Bihari Vajpayee till today. In a way this would include all of the leaders such as Govind Vallabh Pant and Sardar Vallabhai Patel, Subhas Bose and presidents Rajagopalchari, Rajendra Prasad, and Sarvapalli Radhakrishnan, southerners and northerners alike, westerners like Babasaheb Ambedkar and northeasterners like Syama Prasad Mukherjee. And above all Mohandas Gandhi and his mentors Tilak, Gokhale. It all started with Dadabhai Naoroji, a member of the British parliament in the Victorian period of prime minister Gladstone, who wrote the classic "Poverty and UnBritish Rule in India" which inspired Gandhi to write his own Hind Swaraj in 1910 on a ship from South Africa to London to negotiate for the rights of overseas Indians. Naoroji and Gokhale provided the tactical approach for Gandhi to learn and combine with his own ideas for Swaraj.

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The Editorial Board of the WSJ says the vote in the German parliament 586 in favor and 100 opposing for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine brings Germany and the US, Britain and France closer in efforts to turn back the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The resolution of support for Ukraine clearly states the German parliamentary position says WSJ- efforts for a ceasefire that will be agreed to by Ukraine and western allies. The Scholz government is asked in the resolution to support "all efforts by the a Ukrainian government to reach a ceasefire in direct negotiations with the Russian leadership." It also states "it must be clear that there can be no negotiations over the heads of the Ukrainians." WSJ says it hopes chancellor Scholz listens to the German parliament with 586 out of 686 calling for efforts to turn back the invasion in coordination with allied efforts.

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The fight for electing a new Speaker that led to 5 days of voting could lead to month of turmoil in the US House of Representatives. Kevin McCarthy made concessions that could lead to more fractiousness among Republicans says this report in the WSJ. A single House Republican can challenge the Speaker under one of the concessions. Other concessions would make it harder to pass legislation. The WSJ Editorial Board says some Republicans who agree more with Democrats than positions taken by the 20 Republican holdouts in voting for Speaker, such as spending on infrastructure and support for Ukraine may actually join Democrats in future voting.  This brings in a new period in which party affiliations will be only one of the factors deciding how members vote, other factors being where they stand in the US support for Eastern Europe against Russian threats, and on issues such as spending on fixing broken American infrastructure .

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It was not till 1.39 am in the early hours of the morning of January 7, 2023, that the just elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy swore in all the new members of the 118th House. This ended a week of voting that went into 15 rounds before five Republican member holdouts of 20 rebels voted "present" to make it possible to elect Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker. A bitter fight led to concessions being made to Freedom Caucus members who wanted to limit spending and cut spending on infrastructure and defense. McCarthy opted for the route of repeated ballots to avoid making concessions on who controls key committees and to limit concessions to ab out 20 rebel members of the Republican Congress. The vast majority of remaining members do not share these views including Democrats who make up about half of the House and many Republican members of Congress.

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Mikaela Shiffrin is now one of the best downhill skiers of all time. After she failed in four races in the Beijing Olympics she lost some of the spirit she had. Rachel Bachman describes a visit to Roger Federer's home in the Alps that helped restore Mikaela's spirit and gave her some important advice on longevity in sport. First it was time to take a look around you notice things and breathe it all in. As Federer put it- "You need to take the moments to look up and around you, to appreciate where you are, breathe it in." It is when you are in the depths of your career and it is difficult to do this, that when it is the most important to do this, Federer told Mikaela Shiffrin and her mother Eileen on that day at lunch in the Federer home in the Swiss Alps.

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English parents struggling to feed their children even this preschool teacher in London, as Emma Bubola reports for the NYT from London, UK. It is atrocious says a church minister running a food bank in Derby, in central England, that working families are having to come to food banks. Prince Charles talked first about people at food banks in his Christmas message this year. One estimate is that a fifth of familes are from families with jobs but unable to keep up with the cost of living. Warm spaces are being set up in Methodist and other churches. One food bank worker says you see ambulance crew, teachers, and asks what does this say about the community, about the country? Ten years of Tory austerity policies have made things worse. On a recent night a nurse walks into a food bank in the east London neighborhood of Hackney. This isn't a normal Britain.

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WSJ's Christopher Mims shows the failure of tech startups in low margin industries in which the startups added little real innovation. What he does not say is that these so called "tech startups" have caused a massive capital misallocation and poor productivity of capital for trillions of dollars of American savings. This  happened when the productivity of capital for infrastructure and manufacturing industries in which the US has fallen behind is increasing. It has also caused "crowding out" of essential government investments in infrastructure and manufacturing in the US. In food delivery, used car delivery, online streaming and a whole range of business startups sales are falling as consumers hit by high inflation are budgeting carefully for all expenses. Many are disappearing after years of losses leaving a trail of destruction that includes the unrealized infrastructure and manufacturing that America's communities so badly need.  ...

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Arthritis drug Humira from Abbvie is shown in this NYT report as having made $114 billion from Humira using the US patent system to delay the introduction of competing products that would have lowered prices for Americans suffering from arthritis. NYT says the114 billion was made just since 2016 when competing products were coming to market. In 2022 this is ending as nine competitors including Pfizer come up with their competing products. In many ways the system of market competition does not operate in the way textbooks or free market advocates say. It is considered ok to engineer advantage within what is a supposedly a market competition system and to turn a blind eye to it. Is it acceptable when it comes to health products and when prices increase from the exorbitant to the outrageous. The Inflation Reduction Act of president Biden included efforts to prevent just such abuses of a market competition system to restore fairness after years of egregious behaviours.

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Henrik Bohme says not just Putin is responsible for the situation Germany faces of a cutoff of supplies of gas from Russia if the Nordstream pipeline never comes back on after maintenance. Bohme says that in September 2018 at the UN  General Assembly Donald Trump told Germany to look in the mirror, saying that Germany would become completely dependent on Russian energy if it did not change course immediately. In return Trump only got laughter and head shaking from the German delegation says Bohme. Over that period the response was the same from Merkel and the CDU - a smugness and condescending attitude to the US. When the US imposed sanctions on Nordstream 2 Germans suspected a backhanded trick to get Germany to buy dirty fracked gas. Today it is buying the same fracked gas from the US and asking for more. It is similar to the situation for coal as coal is being brought from Colombia.

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Putin's statement that Nordstream would resume supplying gas after maintenance in July but could have cutbacks with further maintenance, leaves Europe where it was before the statement. EU has no choice but to prepare vigorously for a complete cutoff of Russian gas supplies now when there is time than to be caught in serious trouble in the winter. The EU plans to require 15% reduction in gas consumption over 8 months and detailed plans have to be shown to the EU Commission by each member country. Some of this will be conservation in use including better insulation, turning down thermostats in winter, and some of it will be cutbacks of industrial use. This is considered to be enough to meet the needs in an event such a complete cutoff of supplies of gas from Russia. Russia has reduced supplies on Nordstream pipeline of natural gas to 30% of the average sent in the last 5 years.

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This WSJ editorial looks beyond Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. It says for decades during which China modernized its economy with US investment and technology, Chinese policy remained peaceful reunification and no set date. The US under this agreement for peaceful reunification agreed that it would follow One China policy and not follow the earlier policy during the Cold War of close defense ties with Taiwan. Now it appears from Chinese policy under Xi Jinping that Chinese plans are for reunification of Taiwan by any means and with a date of the next decade or even in the next 18 months, says WSJ. This is a change of previous Chinese policy says WSJ and the US response should be to act with a change in its policy to provide Taiwan with the ability to defend itself during an invasion of the islands around Taiwan or other invasion.

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Extreme mismanagement of the economy led to the situation of currency notes of 100 trillion in Zimbabwe being issued by the central bank of this African country, unbelievable as it may sound. The situation has deteriorated over two decades. Before independence this country was called Southern Rhodesia run by a small community of white British settlers from the nineteenth century. After a independence war by a liberation front organization this country entered a new phase in which the mismanagement of the country's economy became a serious problem for all communities, in a nation of 15 million people which could attract tourists with diverse African habitats and Victoria Falls. It is an example of how the hopes of a generation  that experienced independence in 1980 in these parts of British East Africa have been waylaid by autocratic leaders and mismanagement. This region includes Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, Tanzania and Kenya. 

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Shorter work hours can provide time for yoga classes, time with children, travel overseas, and other activities for a healthier and more satisfying life. This report in WSJ shows people in different professions from medicine to environmental engineering taking a different approach to life. After the pandemic there is a rethink of what is a better way to work and combine work with attention to healthier living. Healthier living provides the concentration power that enables doing a lot more work in fewer hours creating a new way of working with time for healthy activities outside work. WSJ shows how this works in the lives of 5 workers and their families. For many workers it is possible to earn close to what they made with longer hours by utilizing the time more effectively, with all the added benefit of healthier lives- this adds up over the years reducing many of the health problems that come from neglecting healthy activities during prime work years. 

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Grant is remembered for his humility in talking to a black union soldier who as a member of the police force stopped him for speeding. What is less known is the story about the sudden reversal in his health and finances after he left office, his effort to finish his memoirs in the last year of his life stricken with cancer. Noonan has left it to readers to draw meaning, wisdom and virtue, from Grant's experience. Grant, who led the Union forces in the last years of the American Civil War in the 1860's was next only to Lincoln in the country's estimation as the war ended. Humility is the main part of virtue and Grant was all the better for having it. This applies to all past and future presidents. Divine providence and the power of Nature has its own ways and there are no exceptions.  

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A sharp increase in the price of used cars of as much as 36% during the pandemic when supply chain problems made it difficult to find new cars, puts lower income buyers under greater financial stress. This meant buyers tended to have much older cars, from 2013 or 2014 that were over 10 years old with close to 100,000 miles. And more likely to breakdown costing a lot to repair. Combined with this need for major repairs the cost of repairs went up 13% in the last year, with a shortage of mechanics plus costlier parts. As a result some buyers of older used cars are unable to make their car payments and are falling behind. This WSJ report looks at the growing problem with some buyers simply stopping payments on loans taken out to buy used cars they could not repair because of the size of the bill.

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China's military drills around Taiwan have an unintended effect of creating a shift in American and European sentiment on the overconcentration of US and EU investment in China. Business in Germany and in the US has operated for a long time in the Merkel and Bush-Obama-Trump administrations a if this overconcentration which hurt workers and communities in both the EU and the US did not matter as long as the interests of the individual companies was met. Mr. Biden's policy takes an entirely different approach to protect American workers, rebuild American manufacturing, rebuild infrastructure, and to build America's leadership in the world. The military drills only increase the awareness in America of the risks and dangers of the positions taken by previous administrations. Shifting sentiment to back president Biden's strong steps to rebuild America and American leadership.

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A tipping point happens when a small push can create a large outcome. Energy experts say we are at tipping points for renewable energy because cost of renewables solar and wind plants is now lower than fossil fuel new plants. Another tipping point is when new renewable energy plants have less cost than old fossil fuel plants. Another tipping point is when storage and production of renewables cost less than new fossil fuel plants. The first is already here and the second and third points are being reached in 2023 and 2024. Another tipping point is the confidence point and this is when it is no longer necessary to use fossil fuels because the costs are just too high. Once this is reached renewables are the first choice around the world. The world is now reaching this confidence point. Germany's Energy and Economy Minister Habeck says Germany will be 80% on renewable energy by 2030.