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Saudis unilaterally cut prices of crude oil without consultation with other members of OPEC at the beginning of Oct. 2014. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi says there is not much point in talking to other members of OPEC as everyone does as they please. The old cooperation between Gulf states Qatar, U.A.E., Kuwait and Saudi Arabia is breaking down with each country backing different rebel factions against the Assad regime in Syria-Iraq. Ali al-Naimi who normally comes in ahead of the OPEC meetings in Vienna, which meet twice a year, arrived this time at the last minute. He said meetings should be conducted only once a year and consulting can be done remotely. The old style when he guided discussion at OPEC meetings is gone. OPEC now produces about a third of the world's oil, has large spare capacity of 3.8 million barrels a day in 2014 or 4% of global oil supply in a crisis, according to IEA. Yet it faces pressures from the increasing shale production in North America and the decline in demand from Asia. Brent crude is at about $92 in October 2014. OPEC production in August 2014 was split as follows- Saudis 9.6, Iraq 3.0, Iran 3.0, U.A.E. 2.9. Kuwait 2.9, Venezuela 2.3, Qatar 0.7, Libya 0.5, Algeria 1.2, Nigeria 1.8, Angola 1.7 (millions of barrels a day, source: OPEC)...

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The Financial Stability Oversight Council puts out a study and recommendations on the Volcker Rule that will serve as a guide to drafting the rules for implementing it. The overall tone of the report is that regulators must be vigilant for ways in which banks may try to evade the rule. Mr Volcker said after reading the report that it is clear and straightforward in its effort to let banks know that you cannot hide proprietary trading in other activities.

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The smaller iPads like the Apple Mini 5S iPad are gaining in popularity. Apple has 32% of the iPad market. Samsung is gaining market share moving up to 18% in 2013 second quarter, up from 7.6% the prior year quarter, according to IDC. Apple is making the new iPad Air thinner and lighter from 1.4 pounds to 1 pound. The iPad Mini gets the high-resolution Retina display and goes for $400, $70 higher than the previous mini ipad which will now go for $300. Both iPads get faster processing chips, the A7 and the M7, and better antenna wifi connections. The new products will go on sale in Nov. 2013. Gartner estimates smartphone shipments at 1 billion and tablet shipments at 184 million for 2013. Tablets are expected to outsell PC's in 2015, according to IDC. The growth is rapid paced, with 2012 sales at 120 million tablets, increasing from about 17 million in 2010 when the iPad was first introduced.

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Bank of Scotland stands to lose close to 90% of the value for a 1500 acre luxury golf-course property and homes it financed in Hawaii called Hokuli'a. From its peak price of $600-800 million it is now going for $50-100 million after the developer based in Phoenix defaulted on the $1 billion loan from Bank of Scotland, which is now part of Lloyd's Banking Group.

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The May 6 episode of the stock market plunge of 900 points in the U.S. and then recovering had the effect of rattling investors nerves especially retirees. The impact of this episode is recorded in the experience of one Charles Schwab broker office in Englewood, Colorado. By the end of that day this broker had 50 calls on his answering machine from a fifth of his clients, all seeking to know what happened. Charles Schwab, who helped launch a period of individual investing in the U.S. after 1982 by cutting fees and going after the average investor, (along with others like Jack Bogle of Vanguard Funds), is also on edge. He says he has not seen anything like this since his early days. Schwab confirms Yale Prof. Shiller who says (see link) that his index for markets shows a lot of nervousness. Saying that 98% of people are still very concerned, coming after the May 6 incident, and the Greece and eurozone crisis that impacted US stock markets. One other factor he points out is the constant flow of headlines that suggest certain business people engaged in fradulent practices, something that fuels a lack of trust. Charles Schwab ponders from his office across the San Francisco Bay Bridge, whether words like safety and soundness mean anything anymore. Another factor of concern, Bogle points out, is that institutional investors now own 70% of American corporations, up from 35% in 1975. And the advantage has veered sharply in their direction as institutions, hedge funds, and investment banks trade on their own account, with wealth moving in that direction. This leaves the individual investor and especially the retiree or those about to retire in a severe predicament....

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Pearlstein touches on the main issues raised by Obama's regulatory reform proposals. A thorough and independent analysis by a panel of seasoned regulators and independent experts would have done better, Pearlstein says. It would take more time, but the regulatory reforms need to be thorough, considering the damage that has been done to the financial system, and considering the opportunity to do something serious about this. It would have also shielded the administration from criticism if tough action was needed in some areas. Hearing all sides of the matters at hand, and weighing the pros and the cons on each issue is helpful, but there are gaps in this approach when some of the key actors like Geithner and Summers have worked too closely in the past with the financial firms that are being regulated, and may have a tendency and bias in that direction. The President's lack of expertise in these areas, and a desire to keep the regulatory hand as light as possible, and intense obying by financial firms, can tilt things away from serious regulatory reform. The danger is that the opportunity to fix things with major structural changes where necessary, and some tough actions where needed may be lost. Some of the obvious gaps are mentioned by Pearlstein. There is no measure to tackle the situation with the ratings agencies. There will be more transparency than before but complex derivative trading can take place prettty much like before. Credit default swaps will continue as before. If you set up acouncil of regulators, then why not bite the bullet and consolidate them into a single agency, asks Pearlstein? Banks will continue to have their proprietary trading desks, from where they ran up huge losses, these act like in-house hedge funds. Ultimately a lot depends on who is running these agencies, or the Fed, and what is the prevailing opinion about markets in the country. The prevailing opinion that the less regulation the better for free markets, and the lack of independent regulators, and poor appointments, had a lot to do with the capture of the regulatory agencies by the the firms they were supposed to regulate. And on this point the President is on safer ground, as he can ensure that he appoints tough regulators and create a new culture that puts regulation right where it should be, as a necessary ingredient for free markets, just like rules of the road. And in one area the President has created a new structure, a new agency with powers- this is where consumer protections are at stake- so that the abuses that took place with mortgages do not take place....

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This report in the WSJ gives an inside look at recent events in Venezuela. Venezuela's Opposition was fractured without a common strategy to deal with Mr. Maduro for the last 3 years, until Jose Guiado and a small group called Popular Will decided to take action. On Jan 23, 2019 very few opposition leaders knew that the leader of the National Assembly, Jose Guiado, would declare himself president in front of a crowd of 100,000. Venezuela is enduring horrendous inflation of over 1 million percent for the year. After 3 years of setbacks a small group of opposition leaders decided to take action seeing the National Assembly as reflecting democratic voice in the country. In December leaders discussed strategy and a breakthrough came on Jan. 4th when the Lima Group of 14 Latin American countries and Canada called on Mr. Maduro to hand over power to the National Assembly. Most countries have not accepted the results of the recent election of Mr. Maduro. As recently as Jan. 22 even Mr Guiado was not convinced. It was only after Mr. Mike Pence the U.S. VIce President called to express support that he came around. ...

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How the outmoded computer systems at China's brokerages are the weak link in China's stock markets. Even though the Shanghai stock exchange computer systems are modernized the brokerages computer systems are falling behind and have not seen the level of investment and attention as the major exchanges. this could be a real problem in a downturn without access to terminals in crowded facilities investors not able to get out of the market may create panic. And overloaded computer systems have crashed in the past and could do so again. In China investors are responsible for executing their own trades rather than leaving orders with a broker so having access to a terminal and for it and computer systems to function properly are really important to investors in the market. This could be a aggravating factor if there is a severe loss of confidence in the market.

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Total household debt in Thailand at $306 billion in the second quarter of 2014, or 80% of GDP, is twice what it was in 2010. A assistant governor of the central bank expects sharp decline in spending rates. Low water level in dams is likely to affect the agricultural economy. The slowdown in China is lowering Thai exports. The result is a sharply slowing economy with growth expected at 1.5% for 2014.

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News on several fronts in June 2009. On housing, a month to month improvement but still stuggling compared to a year ago levels. The Commerce Department said that an increase in multifamily units led to housing starts jumping 17% in May from April to a 532,000 annual rate. Compared to ayear ago level housing starts was down 45% from May 2008. There were 10 times more homes for sale in April as sold that month, with the typical ratio at 6. With layoff, tight credit and rising mortgage rates laying aheavy hand on these markets, even as developers cut prices deeply to clear unsold homes. On Manufacturing. Industrial production fell 1.1% in May from April, according to the Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization fell to 68.3%. See the graph for the steep drop for auto and auto parts manufacturing. On inflation. The producer price index showed its largest decline in 60 years, according to a Labor Department report. The PPI was down 5% from one year ago, the biggest decline since 1949. It went up from April to May by 0.2%. Part of this was rising oil prices. The core PPI which excludes food and energy dropped 0.1% in May from April. Rising oil prices, a falling US dollar and stabilization in the economy are reducing defaltion risk. At the same time the sign that inflation is not taking root are clearly evident in the slack that is building up with the drop in the capacity utilization rate to 68%, and further declines expected as the auto industry shrinks in 2009, with the huge overcapacity worldwide in that industry. ...

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The migrants moving north from Central American countries is a result of gangs taking control of neighborhoods with extortion rackets and little control from the authorites. In one country San Salvador gangs control most of the nation's municipalities. Unlike the drug gangs these gangs a residual of the guerilla wars in these countries and other gangs, operate in their own neighborhoods. As  this report points out the gangs employ about three times as many people as the largest 2 employers in San Salvador Hanes Brands and Fruit of the Loom. The cost of this is about $4 billion or 16% of GDP according to the country's central bank with a major loss being human, losing the best people and lost investment.

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The collapse of the zloty, losing half its value against the Swiss franc is proving to be traumatic for Polish consumers who took out loans in Swiss francs for property, cars, consumer goods. In the past the zloty had soared in value and it was cheaper to pay off the loans in Swiss francs which had lower interest rates. Now with the zloty losing so much value it is proving very difficult to pay off these loans. What was once seen as a win-win game, says a economic advisor to Poland's President, now is turning into a risky currency gamble. He says that people were taking risks without knowing the consequences and what they were getting into, much like homeowners in the US getting into risky subprime loans.

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The U.S. experienced a net increase in jobs of 69,000 in May. The average for the March-May 2012 period is 96,000 jobs, which is down from the figure of 245,000 net jobs added in the previous three months December- February 2012. Increasing auto sales did not increase jobs by much- only 12,000. Job gains were in health care, transportation and warehousing, with cutbacks in construction and at the local government level.

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The suicide note left by CFO Wauthier of Zurich Insurance in August 2013. This followed heated and tense exchanges with chairman Josef Ackermann of Zurich Insurance, who joined the company in 2012. Wauthier says Ackermann created a very stressful working environment and treated managers disrespectfully, putting pressure on the finance department. Ackermann joined Zurich Insurance after a career as investment banker and CEO of Deutsche Bank AG. Zurich Insurance's board said an internal investigation will be conducted on cultural issues about whether excessive pressure was placed on the finance department by senior management. Ackermann resigned immediately. Ackermann had tried to change the culture at Zurich of courteous and quiet internal meetings. His position was non executive chairman but he took a vigorous role. Zurich Insurance was facing a difficult macroeconomic environment and missed three year operational targets set in 2010. Wauthier was a 53 year old dual French-British citizen who joined the company in 1996. He worked in southern California for the company in one position, where he improved his surfing skills. The differences between the hard charging investment banking demeanor of Ackermann and the quiet demeanor with engagement in sports of Wauthier, suggests serious differences in management styles leading to conflict that ended in tragedy....

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Mysteriously Catherine Ojha, a European anthropologist, is cited here for what the word Bharat means to Indians. One only looks to the movement for freedom of hundreds of millions in southern Asia under Gandhiji to realize that it was for the freedom of Bharat that they were fighting for against the British Empire not the entity that was British India. It was the people of British India that financed Britain's defense in the Napoleonic Wars around 1800. Juan Mascaro the Cambridge historian who completed the translation of the Penguin Classics Bhagavad Gita had better grasp of India than an obscure except for French and other European language readers such as Ojha. 

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This view in the Economist shows that president Trump actually represented the instincts of the Republican party base by 2018- anti-immigrant, anti-elitist, and to the right on social issues. As a result it says it is no surprise that he has taken over the Republican party. As the elections for Congress get closer most candidates are trying to get Trump's support and many of the older senators and Congressman from the earlier period of the party are retiring. It cites polls showing Trump has support of 85% of the Republican party base. In 2018 Mr. Trump appointed new members of his cabinet who more closely represented his views on China, Iran, NATO, and business issues. Remaining party leaders such as Mr. Romney running for Senate seat from Utah are now seeking and getting Trump's endorsement. The Republican National Committee is also run by Trump supporters. On issues of foreign affairs Trump has combined alternate shifts between demands and pragmatism in relations with China, Iran, and other countries on trade, politics, coming up with a new way international relations are tackled. Part of the reason for their appeal is the nature of the intractable problems such as the imbalances in trade, nuclear weapons, and the idea that an alternative approach might work when other approaches have failed.  On social issues such as issues facing workers in globalization and free trade the parties to the left in the U.S. and countries in western Europe have failed to deliver, leading to the appeal of Mr. Trump, Brexiters, National Front in France.  The immigration issue has also worked against the socialist parties.  In Britain dissatisfaction with Theresa May and hard core Brexiters is growing, leading to Labor Party getting 40% of the vote in the recent election. Suggesting that the changes induced by the Brexiters and the Trump administration may lead to other changes in the future that may shift the focus back to basic issues and delivery on infrastructure, health and education which are fundamental for the future.   ...

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Andrew Ross Sorkin of the NYT interviews Bill Gross, former head of PIMCO, in May 2015. Gross says the separation with PIMCO was hard, like a painful divorce, especially because he is sensitive. He continues working at 71 because he wants to show PIMCO made a mistake.

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Eric Bellman's intervew with Rajiv Lall, chief executive officer of Infrastructure Development Finance, India's largest infrastructure financing company. Lall says the conditions are right for power development to be the next telecom of India's growth story, with some of the same impact that telecom has had bringing mobile phones to hundreds of millions of people in India. IDFC expects 20% growth in net profit in 2010 and 30% in 2011.

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Mexico sends 80% of its exports to the US, and China a significant $439 billion in additional exports to US, which makes it incredible that for so long it did not take effective action to stop fentanyl flows, and Mexico allowed migrant trafficking across it's borders through 2016-2024. Even in the face of this becoming an explosive issue in the US with DJT elected in 2016 and the Border Wall being built. A silent but still existing in plain sight idea that the US would tolerate such flows became part of the culture in media outlets in the US and Europe and China and other parts of the world, even when there was a storm of discontent building about manufacturing shipped overseas hurting communities in the US since 2010, with added burden of safety endangered in these neighborhoods from fentanyl, drugs and illegal migrants. What worsened this situation and pain in the US was the idea that somehow it was the US's fault, an incomprehensible disdain for the US, US that enabled the modernization of China, Mexico, and Canada's economies. China sends $439 billion in exports more than the US does to China (US exports $143 billion China $582 billion in 2024). It is only surface presentation of indignation of face saving that these trading partners are showing when the real facts point to an extraordinary and incomprehensible disdain for the US as a nation in decline. There is a feeling in parts of Europe of American disdain for  Europe, without mention of the disdain for the US in Europe, China, Mexico and Canada and other parts of the world. Particularly disdain for neglected communities in the US that have suffered for far too long under previous administrations of Clinton-Bush-Obama with shipping of manufacturing and jobs overseas and inaction on drugs and illegal migrant flows. The EU Canada retaliatory approach has not worked. When DJT proposed doubling the tariffs imposed by US in the face of Canada EU retaliatory steps, the EU and Canada pulled back. Part of the reason is that in the case of Canada it is an economy one tenth the size of the US. The other is that there are real concerns on the US side that Canada EU are not playing fairly in trade. And Canada, Mexico, China, have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US.  ...