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Saudi East West 750 mile Pipeline from east coast fields to west coast at Yanbu port- capacity 7 million barrels a day with average 4-5 million loading each day in April 2026. About half of this goes to India and China. It is critical supply point for the Saudis now that Straits Hormuz is restricted. The UAE has pipeline to Fujairah which it seeks to double capacity by 2027 from 1.8 million barrels a day to 3.6 million barrels a day. UAE has left the OPEC cartel that limits supplies and sets prices, which makes this critical for the US to ensure oil prices remain at levels that are moderate. UAE now favors lower oil prices while the Saudis objective is to keep prices high.

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Borg Brende, a former foreign minister of Norway, resigns from leading Davos Economic Forum over Epstein connections- astonishingly he interviewed Merz other leaders on Davos Forum broadcasts. This is one more reason that Davos or Switzerland is not where one should look to or for a real understanding of what is happening in the world that extends to places that have little in common with Switzerland, and look very different, from Japan to India and China, from Spain to Italy, and from Canada and the US to Britain and Australia, from Brazil to Chile and Argentina. So many other forums exist and so much happens there, there is also the G-20 and other world gatherings, and meetings of regional leaders where so much more happens.

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The split of the global internet into three with the emergence of a closely monitored internet in China, and Google developing the Dragonfly version to enter China in cooperation with the government. The European Union will have its own version that rivals the U.S. with its own regulations and rules. Each has its large home base. A fourth base is in South Asia where a home grown internet is still to develop. The split will be based on home versions such as Baidu in China and Google, Bing, Safari in the U.S. and the EU version with different rules for privacy and protection. Openness, limits, regulation, government rules and control in home countries, will characterize the patterns in each. This Editorial Board article in NYT says the U.S. version may not end up being the best.

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Retail sales in China dropped sharply. Retail sales dropped from double digit increases for most of 2014-2017 to single digits in 2018- sales dropping to 8.1%. Government restrictions to prevent a housing bubble restrained housing sales, and policies to control corporate debt limited growth. Higher inflation for food and housing, have led to asharp pullback in growth of consumer spending.  Trade tensions with the U.S. have hurt consumer sentiment. The feeling that China's growth would stabilize because of its connections to the world economy is fading as consumers see persistent trade tensions with the U.S. including tariffs of upto 60% in tit for tat actions as hurting China's prospects.  The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.5% for 2018 according to government estimates, which experts say is actually much less or even half that as exporters retrench in the face of slack demand in China and lower sales to the U.S.  Rail and other infrastructure projects that were considered unsuitable are now being given approval in efforts to boost the economy. More tax cuts and expanded deficit spending are policies likely to be followed.  At foreign companies no overtime, and job cuts are commonplace especially in the auto industry. ...

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A unanimous vote of the Chinese Communist Party Congress now puts "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in a New Era" into the Chinese Constitution. As the 19th Party Congress ends Xi Jinping joins two other leaders of the Communist Party Mao  Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, who were so honored. It also appears that unlike previous leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping is concentrating authority and direction for China. This Congress marks the end of Xi's second five year term as party general secretary.  Under Hu Jintao there were efforts by some Communist leaders to create new power bases. This period ended with Xi Jinping bringing a clear direction and authority under the Communist Party. This has led to China taking on a leadership role in the world economy and global political affairs after the election of Trump in the U.S. in 2017. The management of the economy also has provided a soft landing after threats of disruptions in trade relations with the U.S. ...

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China's healthcare system is overburdened and overwhelmed, says this report in the NYT. The changes in living and investment in infrastructure and housing are not matched by similar investments in the health system. Shortages of hospital beds and doctors is making tackling the coronavirus in the Wuhan region more difficult. A new hospital is being built in 6 days in late January 2020 in Wuhan for the coronavirus patients, showing how severe the situation is. 

The lack of strict regulation and lack of enforcement at the local level is leading to the situation where the virus was detected in twice- in 2003 in wild animal meat and again in 2019. Public anger and call for a ban on wild animal meat is happening today.

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Much of India's relations with Britain as a colonial power, and the US as the first real democracy (defined in a new way without colonial interests) after Britain in the modern world, were set in the period when Gandhi mentored by Gokhale and Tilak in 1900 set the independence struggle of the 1930's and 1940's. Modi merely restored the Gandhian spirit with a development focus and honest administration. This enormous contribution of Gandhi revered by all leaders including Modi is a benevolent one recognizing the important and one might say virtuous role played by the US under Wilson and Roosevelt to colonized nations such as China and India as can be seen in the personal letter to FDR written in the 1940's by Gandhi. There are two defining relations of the US, the first related to its founding as a British colony and a war of independence fought with the help of the French. And the other related to Asia, to Japan, China, and India as they modernized in 1900-2000. Of this the relationship with the most ancient of ancient civilizations in India is the dominant US relationship in 2025, because it unlocks the mysteries of westernization without the religious ethos of Buddhism in an imperialist Japan and now expanding Communist China. This religious ethos of China, Japan and Vietnam lies in Indian soil and in the ethos of the Indian people, and where Gandhi drew his inspiration. From this ethos comes the idea that India as a true friend of America and a Europe (that includes Russia) cannot ignore the devastation of Ukraine and inadvertently find itself a participant through its purchase of Russian oil at $119 billion a year (even when China under a expanding Communist government purchases Russian oil at $136 billion a year). The cost of the war is about $213 billion in a Russian wartime economy which also hurts the Russian economy and the cost of living through inflation for the Russian people. India will seek to do some soul searching and find the right path Gandhi would hold on to for Britain, America, and rest of Europe including the Russian people. ...

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The contrast between modernizing, developing East and South Asia ( from Mumbai to Shanghai) with war torn desolate West Asia (from Tehran and Baghdad to Kabul and Islamabad) is so striking today that it is something to reflect upon for wisdom and understanding. UAE support for Sudan's RSF Rapid Strike Force and Saudi support for the military - fracturing of Sudan, errors piled on errors led to the civil war in Sudan. A civil war in a country neighboring Saudi Arabia just across the Red Sea. Saudis and UAE were on opposite sides briefly after UAE pulled out of Sudan, UAE acting in this way to object against Saudis requesting US sanctions on UAE.  Once close partners have moved apart as they spread their influence in different conflicts in the Middle East.  This has not created a region that can grow economically without the disruptions of conflict in the way other parts of Asia have emerged to modernize the countries as in Taiwan, Korea, China and India. In neighboring Pakistan another conflict has emerged as partners split, with looming conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Yemeni Houthis are in conflict with the US and affect the Persian Gulf shipping lanes.  Iran with it's pursuit of weapons programs and nuclear weapons is using capital that is badly needed to improve the economic situation on arms buildup for the regime and for allies in Lebanon and Yemen, leading to protests and crisis. In this way the Middle East has failed to use oil wealth to modernize the entire region. Much of it was wasted in Iraq and now in Iran by policies that led to war and regional conflicts not modernization and technological transformation that has happened in Asia. The US has inadvertently becoming a partner to this as when the Obama administration helped fund Iran's economic rebuilding which was instead used to fund the military, and before that the Reagan administration support for Iraqi socialist ideology regime. The challenge for China was how to modernize after the Japanese invasion and civil war. In Korea it was how to modernize after the civil war. In India it is how to modernize with a smaller neighboring country Pakistan promoting terrorism and wars now with China's support. In Asia all these challenges were and are being met to steadily and persistently modernize to European standards with a singleminded focus and determination to meet the aspirations of the people with the US business working alongside Taiwanese, Korean, Chinese, and Indian governments and private industry. In West Asia various ideological (Iraq), military (Pakistan), religious Shiite (Iran), religious + modernizing (Saudi +UAE) with erratic leaders and little representation of the people, has destroyed the tranquillity of the region and destroyed democratic forms of government, destroyed bottom up education and health of the population except for priviliged groups in countries in the region of West Asia. Involvement of US and Europe or Russia in West Asia has led to distintegration of Soviet Union (Boris Yeltsin) and deindustrialization of US and Europe (Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama administrations) with business shipping out manufacturing to China while wars engaged the attention of American and European elites in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan. The entire west Asian scene for 1950-2030 has been a disaster, one massive disaster for all involved. The contrast with East Asia and South Asia reminds one of the words from Robert Frost of New England in Mowing- that reflects on the enduring value of honest labour. "My long scythe whispered to the ground. What was it it whispered? It was no dream of the gift of idle hours, or easy gold at the hand of fay or elf: anything less would have seemed too weak to the earnest love that laid the swale in rows. The fact is the sweetest dream that labour knows. My long scythe whispered and left the hay to make." ...

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A local government vehicle in China, Sixth Division of XPCC fails to make a bond payment in August 2018. This is the first such instance of failure to make a bond payment for a local government vehicle in 2018. Economists estimate China's total debt at 242% of GDP in 2017, and government efforts to tighten liquidity and reduce support for overextended local government investment vehicles.

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US president's sweeping powers to use tariffs as a tool for policy when American people's jobs, communities, health, is threatened by fentanyl and concentration of manufacturing jobs in China, unfair trade by EU and Japan, is the issue presented to the US Supreme Court. The US president presented it in this way- tariffs as a foreign policy tool, not a way to impose economic policy in the form of a tax on American importers or buyers which is the power allocated to Congress by the US Constitution. Justices who mentioned these powers called them sweeping powers but would not say the word fentanyl or look back at the recalcitrant behaviour of Asian nations Japan and China when it comes to unfari trading practices, where the US could literally negotiate forever and get no result, or to the enormous concentration of manufacturing power and supply channels in China that not only ships out American jobs but leaves Americans at the mercy of foreign powers for cost of living. Nowhere was this more evident as during covid years and now in rare earths export restrictions from China. The Justices assumed it was just alright to ignore this or leave it unsaid.  The cost to American buyers is small because most of the tariffs are borne by foreign suppliers in China, Japan and Germany, who as in the case of automobiles unfairly benefitted for decades and are now bearing most of the cost of tariffs. The large business in the US have increased their margins so much in the 2020-2024 period that they are now bearing some of the cost of the tariffs, as reported in WSJ. So that inflation in the US is at 3.0 % in the US less than anticipated, when average tariffs are at about 10% overall, not what the headlines say of 15-20% because of the product exceptions made in the tariffs for each nation. Justice Roberts may be right when he says more care should be exercized in the placing of a tariff, but even Roberts and Justices Barrett, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and others know that the US has used this as a last resort, as a policy tool to protect the American people. Sweeping powers need care and caution as Justice Roberts stated- “power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount for any length of time. It does seem like that’s a major authority."   ...

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With surplus talent, lower longevity rates and a small industrial base economy China could work for decades with a 1950's policy of men's retirement age set at 60 years and women at 50 years. This is changing as society ages rapidly, people living longer and a large industrial base economy.

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German chancellor Merz makes his frist trip to Asia starting with India. He sees India and Germany as natural partners and shifts the focus to India from China. Under Merkel Germany remained focused on China. This is changing now that Merz is chancellor. The winds of change are also blowing and the war in Ukraine, the distancing of the US under DJT, US and Chinese restrictions, require this change and Modi, Merkel step up to create anew strategic partnership. The EU and German trade is now set to increase significantly as India modernizes its economy. Merz and Modi see less dependence on Russia for oil and gas and defense needs. India seeks German technologies and capital to industrialize its economy. The scope is immense and both sides are at an historic opportunity. Merz is afar cry from the Merkel years when Germany never grasped India's potential and failed to invest in the German economy. Merz has put forward a $1 trillion plan to invest in modernization of Germany and India is the partner Germany has chosen as central to its plans. This brings the entire EU close to India and its aspirations to be a modern economy like the EU. This is a long term project that began today in Ahmedabad with the two leaders at ease at a Kite Festival in Ahmedabad after Merz visited Gandhiji's Sabarmati Ashram. And Merz showed he understood India-"We are in complete agreement in our assessment of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine," Merz said. At the same time, he understood how India's dependence on Russian oil and gas had happened only recently. "Obviously, it is not that simple in India, and I am the last person to visit other countries wagging my finger at them." The patience is there as there is a meeting of minds for what is the largest project of its kind to 2037 and 2047 for 2 billion people pooling technologies, capital and talented engineers. ...

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Havana a ghost town with little activity, garbage piling up, and population struggling to make a living- pictures as France's Le Monde sees it in Jan 2026. Was it all worth it?  A revolution happened in 1956 against Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista that lost its way over 4 decades to 2000, on life support for another 2 decades to 2026. The Cuban experiment caused Venezuela to enter the same realm of disillusionment and many insurgencies in the rest of Latin America that failed with too much rhetoric and little to back it up with in investment and growth through patient effort and inputs of capital, labor and technology, and cooperation with US and EU, the very stuff that changed lives in China and India for 2.5 billion people.

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William Galston in the WSJ says outright for the first time in the WSJ that the years from the last term of Clinton, through the Bush, and Obama administrations were an outright failure for the American people. He documents the losses- 5.7 million job losses in 2000-2010 as Clinton opened China's entry into the World Trade Organization without any precautions taken to prevent abuse of world trading rules after the experience with Japan. Worse no help to the displaced workers which fed into the resentment of workers. Sex scandals weakened the presidency and acted as the major distraction during the last years of Bill Clinton. Over the administrations of Bush and Obama almost the entire US manufacturing base was dismantled and shipped to China. Pharmaceutical companies were allowed to charge recklessly when Bush disallowed Medicare to negotiate prices for pharmacueticals placing additional burdens on the American people. Bush started long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that cost the US dearly in lives and resources wasted with no vital US interests at stake as in Europe. This distracted attention from problems simmering at home. Obama continued these wars preferring to focus on reelection. The migration crisis, the neglect of infrastructure worsened during this period. The Bush deregulation of banks led to the 2009 world banking crisis that led to large layoffs worsening a bad situation from outshoring and creating a class of unemployed, and shrinking household wealth and savings. The Biden administration, the first Trump administration and now the second have started the process of revival of the US. And yet Biden, DJT are relative outsiders who came to the presidency and were not favored in the established order of the 1990-2016 period. One can say about Blair, Cameron, Boris Johnson in Britain, about Clinton, Bush, Obama in the US, and Schroeder, Merkel in Germany that the leadership was mediocre and failed the people of Europe and the people of America.     ...

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Macron says he will visit China soon, and China can play a mediating role in Ukraine to prevent ground offensives in January and February 2023- to give peace talks a chance.