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Britain is too dependent on China for 71 goods that are critical for infrastructure and the economy, says the Jackson Society. This includes industrial chemicals, metal products, and consumer electronics such as mobile phones and laptops.

A group of 20 conservative MP's are seeking an amendment for a trade bill going through parliament, and calling for an audit of imported goods from China, and efforts to make trade deals that reduce this dependency. The group of MP's has written to Liz Truss, the Trade Secretary, and includes former ministers Ian Duncan Smith, David Davis, Owen Paterson. The group of MP's says that the coronavirus pandemic has made all nations reassess their approach to trade and supply chains for security.

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The British Energy Institute shows how countries are doing in fighting climate change by reducing fossil fuel use. 

Poland is poor at 88% fossil fuels in energy mix. Algeria, Singapore, Bangladesh, Oman at 98%.

In Europe Norway leads at 72% for renewqble energy in the mix. Brazil at 50% keads SOuth America, Nw Zealand 43% and Vietnam at 23% in Asia Pacific. 

Of 6525 coal fired power plants China has 3168, India 845 plants and US 408. Older plants are being retired.

Planned construction of new coal power plants 707 in China, 165 in India, 2 in the US, 23 in eastern Europe, 0 in Northern Europe and 4 in Southern Europe, 0 in Western Europe, Latin America is 6.

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Researchers at Beihang University and Tsinghua University in Beijing studied how temperatures and relative humidity affected the natural transmission of coronavirus in 100 cities across China, The looked at data on January 21, 22 and 23, before Chinese authorites stopped its spread. They calculated that the infection was more contagious in northern China, with temperatures and relative humidity low, than among the cities along China's warmer and more humid south east coast. Their conclusion- high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of coronavirus. The researchers are funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. Researchers at the Institute of Virology, University of Maryland, have found that the consistently similar weather across the Northern Hemisphere between 30 degrees latitude and 50 degrees latitude north, running through China to South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, France, provides temperatures of between 5 and 11 degrees Celsius (41 to 51 degree Fahrenheit, with relative humidity between 44% to 84% and low specific and absolute humidity. The conditions in which the coronavirus thrives.  ...

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The number of people employed in foreign firms in Hong Kong declined by 25,000 to 468,000 in 2023, according to Deallogic. Foreign advisory firms face crackdowns and are declining rapidly. Yet companies have not yet pulled up stakes in China.

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The Blinken Wang Yi meeting at the G-2- in Indonesia is the first high level meeting between US and China since March when the Ukraine war started. In the press briefing after the meeting Blinken said "more than four months into this brutal invasion the PRC stands by Russia." He pointed to Beijing support of Russia at the United Nations, dissemination of Russian talking points through Chinese state media and joint military exercizes with Moscow. One aspect of the relations that is beyond the control or good intentions of the two countries top diplomats is the tit for tat response that began with the presidency of Donald Trump. Trump may have seen this as a way to talk to the voter base fed up with two decades of one sided trade with China with manufacturing shipped out to China and local communities of families and workers in regions across the US losing jobs and in decline. Much of this shift was done by US companies during the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations over two decades. The strident tone adopted by Trump was met by tit for tat responses in Chinese media till the pandemic when it assumed a new aspect of Chinese origins of the coronavirus. The result is that Sinophobia in the US is met by a response in Chinese media and in the thinking of the Chinese leadership under Jinping that now sees the relationship as having already shifted during the pandemic. The paradox in this is that the US in its effort to get other countries on its side is only beginning to make an effort of get America's own companies and large business investors on its side. Most American companies are still continuing trade and business with China as before.  The same situation exists with the shift of manufacturing from Japan and the European Union to China, with the loss of jobs and decline of local communities that depended on manufacturing. Japanese and European companies are acting in ways that are similar to American companies. Having managed the shift of manufacturing from European Union and Japan to China these companies have done little to change this business situation in 2022 carrying on as before. This is the paradox of the current situation that business both in the US and EU, and Japan is not on the side of their governments, even as their governments attitude to China, particularly now after the pandemic and the Ukraine war has shifted drastically. Alongside this is the popular opinion that has shifted gradually over the last 10 years in the US and EU, first in these very local communities that lost manufacturing to China, and then across broader sections of the public, and now across whole regions of America, Britain, the EU and Japan. This shift in popular opinion has little interest in the way business conducts business overseas or governments conduct diplomacy in nuanced statements. As a result neither the governments of the US, EU and Japan or the business of the US, EU and Japan are in control of this shifting situation that has its momentum and pace operating quite independently of governments and business. And public opinion across America, Europe, Japan, and also in India is moving in an entirely new direction.     ...

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Saudi Arabian deputy defense minister Prince Khalid says polls show Saudis younger than 30 years old favor improved relations with Israel. As a first step Israeli planes would be allowed to fly over Saudi Arabia and control over two islands in the region would be handed over to the Saudis.  President Biden as a candidate had concerns about human rights in Saudi Arabia. Following the war with Ukraine and improving Saudi Israel relations it now appears likely that this will have an impact in improving US relations with the Saudis. Prince Khalid visited Washington and William Burns has also visited the Middle East for the Biden administration as it seeks to get Saudi Arabia to increase oil production following the EU oil embargo on Russian oil.  Saudis under Prince Salman who heads the administration are pushing to modernize Saudi Arabia and build ties for a broader relationship with the world than the traditional ties in the Middle East of Arab countries.The Saudis are improving relations with India and India was the first country to ship vaccines to Saudi Arabia. UAE and Qatar have also improved relations with the Modi administration in India. With China  engaged in trade and technology friction with the US after US investment and aid to China during the last 2 decades and the long period of aid to China during the Japanese invasion, the US is building new relationships in Asia, the Pacific and the Middle East. The new Saudi US relationship would be different from that of the old Saudi relationship as Saudi remains a monarchy but under the new administration and a younger generation of Saudis sees itself as a modernizing influence in the region. Biden sees these new factors as it looks to rebuild relationships in Asia.   ...

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Metro Detroit has 90% of the 17,000 cases in Michigan as the pandemic reaches its peak there this week.  The large Detroit airport renovated and enlarged is seen as a source of the coronavirus as Detroit is where all 3 auto U.S. auto companies are located. GM, and Ford have large manufacturing operations in China, and  Chrysler has plants in northern Italy, the locations where coronavirus has hit hard, and in the case of China where it originated. Health experts say the busy Detroit international airport connecting the Detroit hub to other auto hubs in northern Italy and China- both virus hotspots- may have contributed to the virus hitting Detroit early. This country to country transmission along some route is how the virus has traveled to over 150 countries. For instance German reports show Bavaria as the source of the early cases in Italy's Lombardy region. It could be that German auto companies located in Bavaria with large operations in China resulted in inadvertent transmission of the virus from China through airport in Munich from flights between Germany and China. A Shenyang municipal bureau report provides information on German  investment in Shenyang, Liaoning province. Munich based BMW makes 1.3 million cars here. There is also the newly built Chinese German Tiexi industrial park in Shenyang with 50 German companies BASF, Siemens, located there.  Once the virus arrives in one location its spread depends on the environment with densely packed areas and the health conditions prevailing in a particular area playing their part. Both in New York and Detroit metro area this helped its faster spread in lower income densely packed areas.   ...

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Bihar  state assembly elections win for NDA led by Modi has one astonishing fact- the average age in Bihar for 128 million people is 22 years with 58% of population under 25 years. The win of 203 seats of 243 is the path to stable government for the industrialization of India into one of the advanced economies of the world similar to Japan and China in Asia. It is also about the aspirations of youth in one of the world's ancient civilizations. Buddhist civilization of Asia (China, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia) had its birthplace in Bihar region of northeastern India. It is now likely to find its place on the world map from ancient universities to the Buddha's ancient sites and youth finding their place in the modern world. Women participation was 72% and overall participation 68% of voters in this election in Bihar state.

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The Iran Saudi talks had already taken place and there was a sense of fatigue on both sides after the prolonged war in Yemen. The Chinese mediation was able to build on this to get the two sides to discuss their differences and come to an agreement. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is very different. China's interest in ending the war in Ukraine comes from its need to not let relations with the European Union deteriorate any further, as this will affect China's economic growth. The pandemic and supply chain shift to home country manufacturing is not likely to change even if China finds a way to keep its relations with the European Union from deteriorating further, as this shift is seen by the US and the European Union as part of the new way of meeting their own strategic interests in the new world following the pandemic.

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The new Southern Wall China is building along its borders with Burma and Vietnam. The border stretches for 3000 miles. Yunnan which borders Myanmar, Vietnam, and Laos has allocated a half billion dollar fund to fortify security barriers on the border. To close the border for zero Covid-19 policy and protect China's southern gate 100,000 officials, police officers, soldiers and civilians are patrolling this border.

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Britain will offer a pathway to citizenship to 3 million Chinese in Hong Kong, British Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab confirmed an earlier statement. This applies to British National Overseas status (BNO) and their dependents upto 3 million. He stated that the new security law to control protests in Hong Kong were a "flagrant" violation of the agreement made with China 23 years ago.  He called it a "clear and serious breach of the joint declaration" of the two countries in 1997. The new arrivals from Hong Kong and their dependents will be given 5 years limited leave to stay and work in the country, at that point they can apply for settled status and after 1 year of settled status they can apply for British citizenship. The Foreign Office expressed alarm at one provision article 38 of the security law that seeks jurisdiction over anyone who criticizes China wherever they are in the world, putting them at risk if they travel to Hong Kong or China. ...

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Walmart has 438 stores in China with over $10 billion in sales. Oracle has smaller operations in China. Walmart is negotiating to take a 12.5% stake in TikTok and Oracle 7.5%. Bytedance owns TikTok. 40% of investors are from the U.S. with investments by Softbank,KKR, Sequoia, General Atlantic, Hillhouse Capital and other funds seeking high returns in internet companies making these investments. The educational value of the content on TikTok is considered to be minimal with mostly entertainment and customers in some countries such as India were reported to be mostly in rural areas. India has since banned TikTok. The huge investments in the internet companies in tens of billions by funds comes as infrastructure needs are not met in Europe, U.S. and India, including education and health, roads and bridges. The entire allocation of capital mechanisms have become out of focus to the needs of the present particularly after the pandemic. Funds sudden interest in using artificial intelligence to promote education would raise much skepticism and the use of TikTok for that purpose even more so. Apart from the concerns for national security that were expressed by the Trump administration, there is the broader issue of the value of children and young adults spending large amounts of time on such media at a time of deteriorating educational levels in all countries of Europe, North America, and in India and China. ...

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The U.S. trade dispute with China takes a new turn after tit for tat tariffs, with the U.S. president Trump claiming that China was interfering in the U.S. midterm elections. This plays into the narrative in China that the U.S. does not want to see China's ascent as a global power. President Trump and Trade Representative Lighthizer have singled out "Made In China 2025," China's plans for tech leadership as a serious issue for the U.S. President Trump made his claim in a speech at the United Nations, saying that he was "the first president ever to challenge China on trade."

Many of China's tariffs on U.S. exports are targeted at agricultural products such as soyabeans and corn in heavily pro-Trump states, and in rural areas where the Republican party has a significant base. 

 

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One negative effect of the trade war with the U.S. is an increased emphasis on energy security and increased use of coal in China. After China committed to goals for climate change coal use declined in 2014, after reaching a high in 2013. The attack on Saudi oil facilities showed risk in its reliance on Saudi oil. China's import dependency for oil reached an all time high of 72% in 2018, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review. Gradually the commitment to climate change and lower use of coal has changed since 2016 with the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Initially after the U.S. withdrawal under president Trump China made bold commitment to lead the fight against climate change but has since wavered. In an October 2019 speech Premier Li Kequiang called for the development of the coal industry to ensure energy security.  As China's economy slowed in 2019 in the face of U.S. tariffs and a trade war with the U.S. efforts are being made to increase infrastructure investment which has driven coal use higher. China's steel output reached a record of 750 million metric tons in 2019. The amount of coal fired capacity under construction in China now exceeds the rest of the world combined, much of it from plants permitted before 2017, according to Global Energy Monitor. China is also expected to become the world's largest importer of natural gas by 2020. Even the Russian gas fields from Siberia supply only a fifth of China's energy demands in 2020.  China has made large strides in renewable energy helping it meet its Paris Agreement targets. Renewable energy is about 10% of China's energy mix, but its use showed growth of 29% in 2018, making up half of the world's growth. China's use of coal in the energy mix has dropped to 58% in 2018 from 72% in 2008, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review, as a result of renewable energy investments. At the Madrid Climate Conference China renewed its commitment to the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Now it is a balancing act keeping in mind energy security and economic growth along with the need for clear skies and better air quality. ...

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The effort to shift China's economc growth away from the rampant overbuilding in housing and industrial capacity of the past to domestic consumption, and focus on meeting the demand for better medical care, quality of food, education and other quality of life products. China's leaders met at the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing in Dec. 2015 to work out ways to make this shift so that growth rate of 6.5% and other goals can be met. Plans include reducing industrial overcapacity, dealing with overinvestment and unused inventory in housing, reducing financial risks from high corporate debt to GDP ratio approaching 160% estimated by Standard and Poors Ratings Services. By comparison the U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 70%. A steep rise resulted from the huge China stimulus program of 2008-2009, when the ratio was 98% for China. Experts such as Derek Scissors of the American Enterprise Institute are pessimistic about the prospects of successfully implementing reforms, saying reducing industrial overcapacity was a goal of the new Jinping Li-Keqiang leadership in 2013, but not much progress has been made in 2 years....

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Andrew Higgins tells the story of the China Power Investment Corporation's hydro electricity generation project on Burma's Irrawady river. The project is located in the northern part of Burma, in Myitsone, Kachin state. This was to be the first of seven hydroelectric dams on the Irrawady river. Initial opposition to the project by local people turned into a national opposition movement against the projects as it became clear that the huge project which would generate as much electricity as the Three Gorges dam in China, or seven times the Hoover dam in the U.S., would for the most part benefit China. Burma's economy was too small after decades of neglect to need this much electricity. The fears of ecological damage, uprooting the people living in the area, took on a new dimension as national opposition coalesced around the issue of Burmese sovereignty. The former general, President Thein Sein, who assumed the position in March 2011, had second thoughts. One former military officer, leading one of the opposition groups, expressed fears that Burma would become a colony that helped China meet its energy needs under the arrangement with China Power Investment Corporation. China was already working with regimes in Sudan and Angola to meet its energy needs. In September 2011, President Thein Sein halted work on the project. This happens just as the country's military is relaxing its hold on the media and allowing opposition leaders to express their views. The two developments may be connected as the military sees the need for getting public support to counter China's pressure to go along with the project. Years of external pressure failed to create an opening for democracy in Burma. This event appears to create the atmosphere for a genuine expression of Burmese feeling and desire for protecting its sovereignty, which would help it join the world community, with the military finding a common ground with public sentiment....

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With China's economy contracting China is now reviving the sidewalk trade with hawker stalls, food trucks, and other types of sidewalk retailers. Chinese premier Li Keqiang says small entrepreneurs at the micro level are as important as larger business to keep unemployment low. Li says these small traders are as important "as vital to China as bigger and more high end businesses." He is now promoting these smaller business enterprises and individual business owners saying "we will support you," and praising food stalls for their contributions in the past before China industrialized to "human culinary culture."  Only when the economy took off and large companies emerged were these small businesses forgotten. This reverses the Communist party's instructions to close street vendors. Li says that in Chengdu, population 14 million, 100,000 jobs were created in a few weeks by allowing 36,000 street vendors back on the streets.  In fact the informal economy plays a big role in India and other countries in Asia and Latin America, Africa. ...

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The US has 1 trillion in trade deficits each year and it is completing the destruction of manufacturing in the US. Half of this is with China as China exports through Vietnam and Mexico, third countries, in addition to 295 billion dollars of trade imbalance the US has with China. China, Mexico, Canada and Vietnam are the largest offenders. No country can long endure with such a loss of its manufacturing base. The US Navy itself is in danger without the manufacturing to compete with China in shipbuilding. China has taken up over 50% of shipbuilding, and soon the US Navy will not be able to protect the free world if these types of economists and self serving German or other foreign interests drive a false narrative and the US acts on such false narratives.  Without the US Navy in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans no one is safe, not Germany, not the EU, not India, not Latin America or the rest of Asia and the world.

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Even as China is investing more in the economy and workers are working fewer hours, the unemployment rate is increasing to 5.3% in Feb 2024, youth unemployment at 15% previously estimated at 22% in June 2023 before a new methodology was adopted.

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By 2024 Dholera Special Investment Region airport and the expressway linking Ahmedabad to Dholera will be operational, says India's Union Minister Piyush Goyal. Developed from scratch on vast stretches of land in the Gulf of Khambat 100 kilometres from Ahmedabad it is expected to be India's best manufacturing zone,  comparable or better than any manufacturing zone in China. It is part of the industrial effort to build world class manufacturing zones in India that fit in with the shift of manufacturing from China as part of the redesign of world supply chains to avoid overconcentration in any one part of the world.

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Like Japan China is looking to wean its exporters away from dependence in the export markets- one of the steps agreed on at G-2- in Pittsburgh- and increase spending by Chinese consumers to buy more of the same products at home. Bicycle manufacturer Tandem has lost 40% of the American sales, now it is looking to the Chinese market as incomes are rising in China. As Tandem's general manager puts it in the US the shift is now to buying cheap things. Chinese exports after rising 20% each year for years, recorded a drop in August 2009 of 23% down over August 2008. In China urban household spending was up 9.2%. THe savings by American households jumped to an annualized $566 billion in the second quarter of 2009, quadruple the rate at the start of 2008. Batson gives this account from Shunde in Chinawhere Tandem has it head offices. He talks with managers at Tandem and sees the struggle within the company to some up with anew mindset, and organization, to sell bicycles in the domestic market where other bicycle manufaturers like Giant Manufacturing Company of Taiwan already have a large share in the high end market. Mr Tseng had to convince his fellow managers and the board that it was a good idea, as the domestic market is tough to pentetrate, kickoffs are common, and competition is intense. Tseng says Tandem will approach first the children's market where competitors haven't focussed, and treat as atoy for kids. Tandem will bring higher quality better built bikes into this market. And this is similiar to what it sells to American kids with lots of colors and funny names. Tandem managers aren't sure Chinese distributors or retailers will pay enough attention to their bicycles so they decided to open astore in Shunde and start small and scale up. Tseng says that Tandem will have to pay its tution first and learn about the market. This means it will still continue selling to America and Europe. Chinea's government is now encouraging these efforts to target the domestic market with tax breaks and coupons. But as China and Japn also become more inward looking economies and trade inside Asia increases, the domestic demand is not enough to make up for the loss in the American and European markets. The US and Europe each put in $9.5 trillion into the global economy, even at their current recession diminished pace, compared to the $1.5 trillion spent by Chinese households. Per capita incomes tell the story. In the US $35,486 and in China $2,270. T...

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The US under president DJT puts out a new National Security Strategy in a document which states it clearly. The days of the Middle East given importance are thankfully over it says. The focus is on the First Islands, from Taiwan, Philippines to Japan for strengthening defense in relation to China. The Monroe Doctrine is now part of US foreign policy with a DJT addition- "that the American people- not foreign nations or globalist institutions- will always control our own destiny in our hemisphere."  It also means the US has a new policy towards Russia and for NATO.  The DJT administration priority, it states, is “ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.” The new strategy is that Europe needs to “take primary responsibility for its own defense.” The Monroe Doctrine and the disassociation with NATO expansion are linked. How so? Russia's foreign policy is for winning recognition as a Northern European Power with its own version of the Monroe Doctrine, being able to control its destiny in its sphere of influence. The way the Monroe Doctrine was implemented in 1823 was by a tacit recognition gained from Britain that it would support the US in its idea of no European colonial powers (France, Spain other ) being allowed to interfere in Latin America, in the western hemisphere. In 2025 the way the Monroe Doctrine is implemented with the DJT Corollary is that the US is tacitly gaining support from Russia/China for implementing the Monroe Doctrine so that no foreign powers will interfere in US sphere influence in the western hemisphere.  Where does this leave Europe and Ukraine? European Union and NATO expansion has now gone too far and NATO which was primarily for Cold War struggle between Communism and US/UK style democracies is over, but NATO has not been disbanded, or a new alliance setup with new goals. Instead as it lingers on it has created new problems such as NATO expansion to the borders of Russia, creating security risks for Russia. This has led to the war in Ukraine and the Republican administration under DJT seeks to defuse tensions and the Ukraine war by excluding NATO expansion, removing the US from European security by delegating that back to Europe (Germany and France, Italy, UK) and by acting as a moderating influence between Russia and Germany, France, that see Russia as a threat after it's attack on Ukraine. US also upholds the policy and principle of no nation invading another country, as Russia did with Ukraine, and in anticipation of the China threat to Taiwan. This part gets nuanced but the overall policy is coherent and Russia accepts this, China is gradually coming to the idea that it has to accept this situation with Taiwan to preserve its economic advances and its exports to the US and EU.  In practice once the interference of China or Russia is removed and European powers in addition, the US has freedom of action in the Western hemisphere and Latin America to prevent crises such as with drug trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela, and unstable regimes sending people north to the US across the Mexican border as from Central America and Venezuela.   ...

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Did Kirsten Tatlow points out the different perceptions of China's anti-corruption initiative in a country with deeply rooted corruption. China's ranking dropped to 104th of 175 countries ranked for corruption in Transparency International's Corruption Index for 2014. The current campaign under Xi Jinping is lacking because it is partial, opaque and politically driven say researchers at Transparency International. For it to be effective it has to be done in a transparent manner, and with stronger laws for bribery, whistleblower protection, asset declarations, according to the researchers. China dropped 20 places since 2013. China's score declined by 4 points to 36. Denmark is highest at 92. Turkey dropped by 5 points. Norway, Finland, Sweden and New Zealand, are at the top of the list. Transparency International points out that free speech, accountable government an independent judiciary are essential to tackle corruption. These are not sufficient however as the example of India shows. A culture of corruption or lack of transparency and effective laws can enable corruption to grow even in countries with genuine democratic process. Democratic process does provides remedies through a change in administration as happened in India with the decisive defeat of the corruption scandal affected Congress government....

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It depends- only if you look at it in actual millions of people. In percent of people Voice of America and this WSJ report show that US obesity rate is much higher with 22 states above 35% and the rate overall at about 25%, compared to China's at about 14%. The fact that this was reported in this way is happening as this issue is taken far too casually in the US, when the quality of life is largely dependent on health. And such high levels of obesity in the US, catastrophic levels in some southern and midwestern states, means one is not doing things right and heading for a poorer quality of life. This report in the WSJ cites estimates of obesity in China of as high as 200 million and likely to grow by another 100 million by 2034, about 14% of the population being obese today and obesity increasing to about 20%. In China the demand for weight loss drugs is growing. The government has a program to reduce the intake of salt, sugar and oil and increase health foods in the diet. Meat in the diet has tripled and there is a need for more health conscious attitudes in China, even more so and urgently in the US. Both the US and China are too auto centric in their culture, particularly the US where public transportation has not been given high priority leading to a lack of enough exercise getting to work. ...

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A traffic jam on Highway 110, leading from the border with Inner Mongolia to Beijing for 60 miles, is now passing 10 days, with traffic inching along at 3 miles per hour. With roadwork on a highway from Beijing to Tibet starting August 13, sections of a major road which circles Beijing have been closed. Chinese bought 13.6 million vehicles in 2009, compared to 9.4 million in 2008. China is building roads, but cannot keep up with this surge in automobile use, especially in Beijing. A study by IBM puts China at the top for "commuter pain," the pain suffered by drivers as they stay stuck on roads. In fact China's media reported that average driving speeds for Beijing could go as low as 9 miles per hour, if car sales in Beijing keep growing at the rate of 2000 new cars per day. According to the Beijing Transportation Research Center, Beijing will have 7 million vehicles by 2015. Beijing was once known for bicycles in the Mao era, and this could be the pace that traffic moves says the Center....