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Lee Kuan Yew, passes away at the age of 91. He led Singapore for 31 years after becoming prime minister in 1959. During this period he helped transform Singapore's economy into a centre for international trade and finance by attracting foreign investment. To do this he developed infrastructure, setup training colleges for the workforce, and provided tax breaks for investors, using Singapore's strategic location on the sea lanes in Asia to best advantage. Singapore became a export hub for Japanese electronics companies, and U.S. companies such as HP and General Electric established regional headquarters there. Strategic investments were made in high tech industries and Singapore's sovereign wealth fund took stakes in companies overseas. He retired in 2011 after opposition parties won 40% of the vote in general elections. His son is now the new prime minister.

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Total's new CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, is moving ahead with plans for the $27 billion Russian Arctic Yamal LNG project. As China shifts away from coal with increased imports of LNG and pipeline natural gas, it is keen on providing financing for the project. Chinese banks will provide the bulk of the financing. Pouyanne disclosed in an WSJ interview that this would be $15 billion in Chinese bank financing to be arranged in 2015. Most of the LNG will go to meet China's needs. Partners in the Yamal project are OAO Novatek of Russia, and China National Petroleum Corporation. OAO Novatek's major shareholder is on the western sanctions list making it difficult to obtain financing from western banks. This makes the project riskier because of foreign exchange risks taken on by Total SA which are to hedge against.

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PFASs class of chemicals used in pizza boxes, carpet treatments and other consumer products. Experts describe the increased risk of cancer, asthma and other diseases from products that are everywhere in today's world. The NYT's Lipton and Abrams provide useful insights into the use of harmful chemicals in everyday life in 2015. Ms. Birnbaum, the head of the national toxicology program of the Department of Health and Human Services in the U.S. questions this widespread use in consumer products of PFASs and the need for alternatives in commentary in Environmental Health Perspectives, a NIH publication. 200 international scientists signed a statement urging countries to restrict use of PFASs. More public awareness is needed for the extensive use of chemicals in consumer products, so that consumers ask questions about which chemicals are in products and look for safer choices.

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A detailed look at the limits of the November 23, 2013 nuclear deal at Geneva negotiations with Iran. David Sanger of the NYT points out the limits of the deal and any future deal reached with Iran. Experts and negotiators of deals with North Korea point to the difficulties and the reversibility of such deals. Only a deal that takes the centrifuges and the nuclear fuel out of the country would be complete, say experts in Israel. In the period since 2009 when Obama took office Iran has increased the amount of low-enriched uranium to 9000 kilograms from 2000 and centrifuges from a few thousand to 18000, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, showing the difficulties of achieving such an agreement. The reactor at Arak is another pathway to nuclear weapons using plutonium. Any hidden facilities also present risks.

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Thomas Sargent of New York University and Christopher Sims win the Nobel Prize in Economics for 2011. Sargent, a professor at New York University, is best known for his work on "rational expectations theory, " which points out that people base their actions on their expectations about the impact of government policies in the future. The implications for today are that monetary policy by lowering rates cannnot permanently lower unemployment, as people will expect higher future inflation and insist on higher wages for labor and higher interest rates for capital. Sargent did most of the signifcant work on the theory of rational expectations at the University of Minnesota from 1971 to 1987. Sims work is in statistical relationships and use of vector autoregressions to study the economy. He taught at the University of Minnesota from 1974 to 1990.

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Texas regulators approved a new wind transmission project which will add a network of transmission lines from west texas to the big cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. These lines will handle 18,500 megawatts of power, enough for 3.7 million homes on a hot day when air conditioners are running. It will add to the 5300 megawatts of already installed capacity. The project will cost $4.93 billion and will come on stream by 2013. Texas now leads the nation in wind energy with twice the capacity of the next leading state California. Texas is unique because it has its own transmission grid so it can move faster without needing approval of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Transmission is a big problem because in west Texas some of the wind generators have to be turned off because of lack of transmission capacity.

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Industrial profits are down, but lending by banks is up dramatically for the stimulus. China's banks made $757 billion in new loans in just 4 months of 2009, more than in all of 2008. With corporate profits decliningthere will be more bad loans in the future. After the recapitalization of banks with about $475 billion at the time between 1998-2006, according to the Bank of International Settlements, Chinese banks are in better shape. Nonperforming loans account for about 2% of the loans. ANd China's deputy central bank governor Yi Gang says- " in a situation of financial crisis, rapid growth in leding does more good than harm. We should also consider the sustainability of the rapid growth of credit and the possible adverse impact." Banks for their part say they are not loosening their standards for lending.

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The WPost editorial says more money may be needed in the future than the $50 billion the government has already committed to GM. A lot of the basic steps have been taken in the Obama restructuring, closing brands and dealerships, cleaning up the balance sheet, bringing costs and benefits in line with foreigh nonunion plants. But, says the Post. the auto task force wanted to see 16 plants closed, the agreement will close 14 plants and three of them will be idled instead of shut down, with GM paying maintenance and other costs. Breakeven is at 10 million vehicles per year market but this depends on GM's market share. If the market at 9.5 million vehicles per year at present shrinks further in 2010, and GM's market share faces more pressures from competition, the prospects of GM making money will dim.

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Note the shift to internet based access and use of software. this is happening already in information access, which Google does over the internet. When it comes to applications we see the traditional model of installed software for Microsoft and Oracle. So there is a gap for someone larger and with the resources to make it work to come into this gap and use it to get a lead over its competitors. This maybe what SAP is about to do. The pricing of the software is at $149 oer user per month and the target is to increase customers to 100,000 by 2010 double its present customer base. The project is called Business ByDesign and 12,300 out of 61,000 developers at SAp are working on this new software. About $560 million will go into marketing and getting it off the ground to users.

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Iraqi production now up to 2.5 million barrels a day according to International Energy Agency, helping to ease some concerns about supplies worldwide for winter. About 2 million barrels a day in the southern province by South Oil Company is fairly stable. Its in the north where a lot of the supply has been erratic because a pipeline that carries the oil through Turkey to the Mediteranean has faced repeated sabotage. As security has been beefed up along the pipeline production in the north has reached 500,000 barrels a day. Poor oil field maintenance and lack of security and underinvestment are the main problems. For example even though about $2.4 billion is set aside for capital investment for 2007 only 30% of it has been spent so far. And the $2 billion allocated for 2008 is way short of whats needed.

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In a time of relative prosperity in the first months after the boom years uptil 2007, in April 2008 to be specific, it is strange but true that food crisis is overshadowing the credit and housing crisis in the USA. At the G7 meeting, World Bank president, Zoellick, made a passionate statement about the crisis that is developing across Asia and developing countries elsewhere as food prices go through the roof. The World Bank and the IMF are stepping in, but the focus at the G7 meeting was on the US dollar and the world financial system. There have been serious problems about food shortages in Philippines, Indonesia, Haiti and Egypt, and even in other countries like China and India the increase in the price of rice by 146% makes for a serious food crisis. See the link to this.

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Sometimes a story gives clues to what might be happening in a way political reports and warime reports cannot. This is the account of a girl who as a teenager grew up in Tshkinvali, the Ossetian capital, at a time when Georgians and Ossetians intermarried, who has relatives in Georgia and Ossetia and in Russia. She sees the first signs of Georgian nationalism in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union and in the years following 1991, things getting worse as Ossetians felt themselves treated differently from Georgians and felt isolated. Around 1991 the anti Ossetian pro Georgian mood was promoted by an antiSoviet dissident named Gamasakhurdia. Ms. Androva leaves Ossetia for study in Toulouse, France, in 2001, she returns in 2008 to see Tshkinvali and what has changed. She also recalls her own experiences.

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The best that can be said about all the efforts to stabilize the housing markets is that they help in the context of the credit crisis that hit the economy hard with the Bear Stearns crisis and help to provide an orderly retreat for housing prices and ways to soften the blow to homeowners and lenders caught up in the wave of foreclosures. But housing prices themselves have not declined anywhere near what one would expect. In fact BW, p17, April 7, 2008 shws percentage changes for existing homes from Feb 2007 to Feb 2008 with data from the National Association of Realtors. And they are surprising when you consider sales for the northeast down 26% and prices up slightly 0.4%. Elsewhere the sales are down 29% in the Western states for a 13% price decline, sales down 20% for a 7% price decline in the Midwestern states, and sales are down 22% for a 9% decline in the Southern states. Jobless rates are 3.9% in Austin, Texas and Birmingham, Alabama and only Detroit, St Louis and Cleveland have jobless rates above 6%. What this suggests is that the unemployment situation has not seen the brunt of this credit tightening and drop in capital investment. As house prices have not declined much declines over 10% mostly in the western states and places like Detroit but not in the northeast and across the south, and unemployment still low across many regional communities, consumption spending has not seen the brunt of this credit tightening. Once tightened credit conditions hit payrolls as companies cut their workforce and unemployment moves up then expect to see greater housing price declines as more houses go into foreclosures, and then expect consumption spending to feel the impact which would reduce sales and further trim payrolls as companies run their factories at less and less production capacity. This sequence would continue and bring the economic crisis to more and more parts of the country in a manner that we have hardly see upto this point. What we have seen is the unfolding of a collapse of mortgage securities firms and of mortgage securites insurance providers like ACA, and with it the huge writedowns about $150 billion taken by the investment houses and the banks. And this has happened as a wave of foreclosures took place in 2006. And the collapse of Bear Stearns with the effects felt in global stock markets. In the communities themselves in the areas of consumption spending and in jobs the conditions will only now begin to be felt and the real impact not felt till the end of 2008 and into 2009 with the Fed action to shore up confidence adding several months in slowing the process. See the link to BW, Bernanke the Reluctant Revolutionary, where the BW estimate is that Americans took on about $3 trillion in additional debt between 2000 and 2006 from what they would have taken if they had followed the trajectory of spending patterns that had prevailed upto that point, with their recent free spending ways. It would take abot 3 to 4 years conservatively for Americans to work down all that debt. Another way of saying this is that consumption spending is going to take a big hit and with it sales of companies and consequently higher unemployment and more part time labor force with less benefits, which would tend to depress consumption even more. The winds of housing, credit, consumption and unemployment would all hit the economy in about 12 months time. Credit will further tighten as BW estimates about $130 billion of additional writedowns still expected....

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Scotland joined with England and Wales to form Great Britain in 1707, at a time of increasing opportunities for Scottish people in the expanding British Empire. Britain's shipbuilding industry had a major base in Glasgow. During the Thatcher Conservative government Scotland suffered, and decades of globalization led to gradual deindustrialization for Scotland, the demise of the shipbuilding and other industries. The Labor Party under prime minister Blair pursued a "devolution of powers" policy, creating the first Scottish parliament following a referendum in 1999. Ironically this has changed the fortunes of the Scottish Nationalist Party led by Jack Salmond, a economist first elected to the British parliament in 1987. Salmond became head of the party in 1990 and led it to second place in 1999 elections, followed by a win in 2007 and 2011 elections. Salmond is seen as a vigorous campaigner, who can speak above others and not seen as a good listener. The party gained the confidence of Scottish voters by running a competent administration led by businessmen who were well aware of problems in local communities. Programs such as free prescriptions for medicines were popular with voters. The Labor Party stands to lose its voter base in Scotland (former Labor prime minister Gordon Brown is from Scotland), and the Conservative Party will also suffer a blow with a yes vote to independence. Polls show voters don't fully trust Salmond, but a majority 39% support an yes vote to 38% no vote, with 23% undecided. Britain just emerging from a deep recession would lose Scottish oil revenues of about 6 billion pounds, and the economy would suffer as business waited to see how things would turn out before making investments. Scotland now manages health, education and transport. Even without independence Scotland now stands to gain more powers and control, and control a higher percentage than the 60% of Scotland's budget that the Scottish government manages today. Scotland represents about 148 billion pounds or 9.2% of the UK GDP....

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Exchange of remarks between Ben Bernanke of the Fed and James Dimon of JP Morgan Chase Bank on regulation and new capital reserve requirements for large U.S. banks. Fed governor Tarullo has proposed a 14% requirement of capital reserves for banks that are "too big to fail."

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With his dwindling popularity and failure to support the socialist parties alliance Macron has made the party En Marche his own creation, a failed project. Macron started out in the Socialist Party in Amiens, France, was a minister in the Socialist government of Francois Hollande 2012-2017. Socialist voters twice voted for Macron in 2017 and 2022 elections to keep the Le Pen National Rally out. After the last election 2022 Macron faced union protests on pension age changes and on issues related to fairness for workers as he failed to take cost of living action and protect workers. He now faces a divided parliament and becomes a lame duck president till the next presidential election in 2027. He called the party he created during the last year of socialist Hollande's term as president initially En Marche, later En Marche El Republique and Renaissance, initially tapping into support for reviving France with younger people in political life. Yet he failed to live up to this instead put himself at odds with working class people and families and the problems they face across rural and urban areas of France. He has run out of support after the yellow vest protests, union protests, and protests over the pension age during his first and second terms. By calling the socialist parties of which he was a member in derogatory terms Macron increased his isolation and created a situation in which the RN of Le Pen is vying to be the leading party in the National Assembly. Only by making large investments in the French economy of $140 billion that the Socialist parties alliance proposes can France's economy and infrastructure be revived, not by the programs of either the RN or En Marche which make no effort to increase investment in the French infrastructure and economic strength. A modest tax on the top 1-4% of the wealthy finances this investment of $140 billion which RN, En Marche and Macron seek to avoid calling this program in derogatory terms to protect a tiny minority of the affluent who in the right way would want to contribute a fair share to the growth and revival of France. ...

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Clive Crook points to the dangers of complacency in 2010. He reminds readers that the critical thing is as Charles Goodhart mentioned in the Financial Times, that capital and liquidity requirements must be time varying and strongly anti-cyclical. He points out that in good times when lending is expanding quickly and financial institutions are least concerned about capital, liquidity requiremets must tighten, something that is not happening under current rules. Repairs in areas of "too big to fail", separating investment banking and commercial banking, and others, will not succeed unless this principle is adopted. And this he says will be opposed by financial institutions because it reduces their growth. But this fight has to be won. It goes back to William McChesney Martin's idea of taking away the punch bowl before the party gets going.

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Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, wants to see stricter requirements than Basel III on capital reserves for U.K. banks. The Bank of England has expressed its strong disapproval of UK banks lobbying activities in Brussels to push for a dilution in Basel III standards. The British government and the Bank of England want to have the flexibility to set their own stricter standards and not to be bound by a relaxed standard set by the EU. The risk to British taxpayers is a principal concern. In the U.S. Fed governor Daniel Tarullo is pushing for capital reserve requirements stricter than Basel III's 7% requirement- calling for a requirement of 10-14%.