LyrArc Article Gist
A 12% drop in Russia's RTS stock index on March 2, 2014, as Russia occupied the Crimea in Ukraine. The Russian economy was slowing down before the crisis. This is likely to reduce foreign investment in the economy. The ruble has declined 9% aginst the dollar in Jan-Feb. 2014. As a temporary measure the Russian central bank made a rate hike on March 2, 2014 of 1.5% to 7%. This is a difficult act for the central bank as raising rates could push the economy into recession.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia's agricultural production is surging as farms are becoming larger, attracting domestic and foreign investment, and being modernized with machinery and modern techniques and methods of running these farms. As a result productivity is jumping and it may be a bright spot on the world map because of higher food prices and shortages of grain and food earlier in 2008.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ukraine's conflict flares up again in Feb. 2014 with the flow of Russian arms and fighters into eastern Ukraine. The U.S., Germany and France call on Russia to respect an agreement made in September 2014 to end the conflict. Russian president Putin's proposal is for a new agreement that takes into account the new territory captured by the separatists, in effect creating a new conflict zone with which to influence the government in Kiev. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry says the great technology available today makes it possible to see the flow of Russian forces and arms into eastern Ukraine, refuting Russia's claims that it is not involved. Germany's Merkel and France's Hollande plan to visit Russia to discuss the crisis with Putin as the Americans consider sending arms to the Poroshenko government in Kiev. In Brussels NATO chief Stoltenberg announces the preparations for the new Rapid Response Force to counter Russia's aggressive posture in Eastern Europe.

LyrArc Article Gist
Many Russians in Moscow and other cities do not support the invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24 on multiple fronts. There are also 3 million Ukrainians in Russia, and Ukraine neighbors with whom Russia has a close relationship. In this sense the invasion is a strange event, coming more from the failures of leaders from Merkel in Germany, leaders in the US and Russia. And leaders at NATO and the EU (Stoltenberg of Norway and Leyden at EU), the US and Russia, who stuck to positions of strict sanctions and buildup of forces at the border, and did not explore other new approaches for building common ground other than trade and finance. Trade and finance are too fragile and complicated for enduring relationships, the emotional relationship that Adenauer and Brandt built, that post war Russian leaders and American leaders built during those years offered a stronger basis for peace and a better future.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lengthy conversations between Scholz, Macron and Putin for over 80 minutes on Saturday last week in which German and French leaders tell Russia that it is getting deeper and deeper into a situation that is bad for Russia. At the same time Scholz and his chief of staff Schmidt emphasize that Russia should not be winning the war. With Russian gains using artillery in the east the situation is again moving in a direction where additional US military assistance would be needed for Ukraine to defend itself. The WSJ Editorial Board says today that such additional assistance should be given to Ukraine.

Germany and France see a shortening of the war as a way to reduce the impact of a sharp recession. Macron and Scholz are making an effort to get Russia to talk directly with Ukraine to reach a settlement to end the war. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Italy which imported 40% of its gas supplies from Russia has shifted rapidly to Algeria as a source of its gas replacing its own supplies from Russia and even sending supplies north to Austria. Algeria, Africa and other gas producing countries Azerbaijan and Turkey are winners in the closing of the Nordstream pipelines to the EU from Russia. Algeria is making the largest contribution to EU gas supplies. Low Russian gas prices for a decade kept Algerian gas in the ground. Algeria is expected to send 100 billion cubic meters of gas to the European Union making up 65% of the 160 billion cubic meters the EU imported from Russia. Much of this gas is produced by the Italian gas company Eni and Sonatrach, Algeria's oil and gas company. Pipelines from Azerbaijan and Turkey deliver gas from that region to the EU. Azerbaijan plans to double its gas production.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Pope describes the Ukrainian people as a brave people fighting for self-determination and condemns the ferocity and cruelty of Russia's troops. He also says he met a head of state who months before the start of the war had told him about the dangers of NATO too close to Russia's borders and risks of a serious conflict. He seemed to suggest that not enough was done to prevent the conflict, that EU and NATO could have found imaginative ways of addressing Russian fears of NATO's presence at its borders.

LyrArc Article Gist
President Biden and Russian president Putin held a two hour virtual meeting on December 7, to discuss Ukraine. Biden stated that the US would take action to support defense arrangements in Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and other Eastern European countries, if Russia invaded Ukraine. He urged Russia to return to diplomatic talks to settle differences over Ukraine. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan described the virtual meeting in this way- "There was a lot of give and take. No finger wagging. But the president was crystal clear about where the United States stands on all of these issues." 

LyrArc Article Gist
Paul Waldman reports in the Washington Post that a lawyer for Michael Flynn, former National Security Advisor to president Trump, has ended communications with Mr. Trump's legal team. This marks a new turning point for the Mueller investigation. Waldman says this could mean Flynn is cooperating with the Mueller investigation, though this is not yet certain. He says president Trump may respond differently to Flynn as the investigation proceeds. 

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ Editorial Board view of the situation in eastern Ukraine in the Donbas region is that Russian forces aim to secure the whole southern region including port of Odessa and its link with global commerce. It says Russia seeks to also control Moldova, close to Romania, and would then be a threat to other NATO countries with significant Russian population. It calls for a vigorous program of military aid to Ukraine to prevent such a situation from happening before some sort of ceasefire takes place.

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ report looks at the work of Alexei Miller as head of Gazprom which supplies Russian natural gas through the Nordstream pipeline to Europe. Mr. Miller is shown to have put too much reliance on the European market which is now shrinking with the European decision to cut dependence on Russian gas. compared to alternative markets in China Russia has invested too little in pipelines to other regions in Asia. He has also not invested in LNG which could be shipped to China and other countries leaving Russia too dependent on pipelines that run mostly to Europe such as Nordstream 1 and 2.  Russia was sending 160 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Europe and only 11 billion cubic metres to China in 2021. A major shift requires much new infrastructure. Miller also did not grasp how shale oil and gas would boom in the US. Mr. Miller started as a 39 year old economics PhD in 2001 when Putin made him head of Gazprom. Both had worked together in St Petersburg local government, and Miller was Deputy Energy Minister for 1 year, briefly head of a pipeline system to the Gulf of Finland. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The story of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city only 25 miles to the border. Santora and Hicks give this report on life in the city which faces constant missile and other attacks with much of its power and other infrastructure destroyed, and schools operating deep inside subway stations. Nothing like this destruction has been seen in European cities since 1945. Europe had only the Balkan conflict limited to Yugoslavia 1991-1995 as the country split into several states, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Slovenia and the US settlement in 1995 following NATO bombing in Serbian Bosnia. The Ukraine conflict stretches back decades starting in 2014 with the Maidan protests in Kiev and fall of the pro-Russian Yakunovych government. After a brief war and Russia taking Crimea it ended with the Minsk Agreement in 2015. Russia had supported separatists in Donbas region. Russian is the language in Russia and Ukraine and both countries share a common historical heritage. It started again with Putin's complaints about NATO enlargement in 2021, followed by an attack on Ukraine in 2021 bringing Finland and Sweden into joining NATO, and US support to Ukraine's defense.  ...