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Saudi Arabia needs current oil price of $60 a barrel to move up to $80 a barrel to balance its national budget. To do this OPEC needs to coordinate its oil production cuts with a group of 10 countries led by Russia that includes Mexico. These countries include countries in the former Soviet Union.  In December cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day were coordinated between the 2 groups to push up oil prices. Now the OPEC cartel plans regular meetings with the Russian led group to push up oil prices. Under a draft document an alliance between the 2 groups would last 3 years and include regular meetings. Earlier Prince Salman led Saudi government proposed replacing OPEC with a new group combining Russia and Saudi Arabia and the other countries in OPEC, yet giving most of the decision making power to Russia and Saudis. This was rejected by Russia and was received poorly by Iraq, Iran  Nigeria, Angola, Algeria. The Iraqis reminded Saudis that OPEC was started in Baghdad. ...

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Anne Applebaum describes comments of European diplomats she talked to who were strongly critical of British prime minister Cameron's efforts to win special protections for London's financial district, the City. They described this as petty, especially when the European negotiators were working to save the Euro currency. Sarkozy said recently that the British hate the euro, and have done little to help, and should shut up. And that is the sense today in European capitals even as Conservatives in Britain applaud Cameron's move. The result is to isolate Britain from the rest of Europe, even as Britain will be put in a position to having to play by rules set by the other 26 countries in the European Union, who are its main trading partner.

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The World Trade Organization is about to choose a new director-general to succeed Mr. Azevedo, a career diplomat from Brazil. The two candidates are a former finance minister from Nigeria,  Ms. Okonjo-Iweala supported by the European Union and the trade minister of South Korea, Ms. Yoo Myung-hee, supported by the U.S. Japan supports the Nigerian candidate because of its trade disputes with South Korea. The role of head of WTO is important today because of trade issues between countries particularly the trade issues between China and the U.S., U.S. and other countries. And the sense that the WTO arrangement is not working for many countries in recent years without a level playing field in many industries from improper subsidies. Before the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization not much attention was given by the U.S. to how it had changed after new elections. As a result non profit foundations like the Gates Foundation from the U.S. played a leading part in representation of American interests and China played a leading role leading to the crisis facing WHO today. During the coronavirus pandemic the WHO lacking adequate influence of U.S. or European Union countries was not able to act in a way that met the needs and concerns of these countries with advanced health systems. In the past pandemics were better addressed worldwide when the U.S. and EU played a major role from the beginning because of long experience and technological resources,  a role that was missing in the current pandemic. Ebola and other virus were tackled in Africa only when the U.S. or European countries played a leading and critical role. This role was sorely missed in the current crisis. This is why changes at the World Trade Organization matter. World trade is important for the world economy and can best operate when the concerns of U.S. and European Union about a level playing field and fair competition are met. This level playing field and fair competition also meet the interests of developing countries such as India which are industrializing rapidly and need to protect their own markets from unfair dumping, as well as Indonesia and other parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa that are part of the supply chain for the world economy. ...

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The difficult task facing Wang Yi, former foreign minister of China, of maintaining relations with the European Union in the middle of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on which China has not supported the EU. Some changes have taken place in the EU in 2022 that affect EU relations with China. Italy and Czech Republic have new governments that are critical of China. The Ukraine war after one year is taking its toll on EU relations with China, as trade between Russia and China is expected to grow to $200 billion in 2023 from $140 billion in 2021.

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The main sticking point  in Brexit talks in December 2020 is the demand led by France to impose "lightning" unilateral tariffs on UK exports if the U.S. is seen as violating existing European Union social, environmental or state subsidy rules. UK is seeking a dispute resolution procedure and redress measures based on the actual damage or extent of the violation.

The other issue is fishing with the EU asking for a 10 year period of transition for fishing in British waters followed by only 18% of the gains to EU being paid back to Britain.

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Italy and the European Union turn to former ECB president Mario Draghi for leadership of the new government in Italy. He is seen as the best choice for Italy's recovery with financial help from EU funds. Mr. Draghi has his personal reputation as ECB president for recovery of the euro currency in the face of austerity policies pushed by the German finance ministry, and the 200 billion euro funds going to Italy, to ensure a recovery. "Consciousness of the emergency entails answers that are up to the challenge," says Draghi.

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Politic magazine covers the differing views inside president Trump's trade advisers and the conflicts inside the team. Mr. Navarro publicly rebukes Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's comments about the trade war being on hold.

Ptresident Trump's nationalist allies inside and outside the adminstration applaud his action on imposing tariffs showing that he is not soft on trade. Others in the Republican side see the presidents tactical moves and negotiating tactics of continually shifting position creating confusion, and when applied with allies like Canada and the European Union doing lasting damage to relations.

 

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A government motion to delay Brexit for at least 3 months passed the House of Commons by 412 votes to 202. The large majority voting for an extension shows overwhelming support across all parties for more time to resolve the issue of European Union membership. Opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for a second Brexit referendum, saying the call was for "a public vote, not as political point scoring but as a realistic option to break the deadlock." If there is no agreement by June 30, a longer extension of 12 months could follow. 

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Germany's new president Steinmeier vigorously defends democracy and the European Union, in his first major speech after accepting the post of president. He calls for "push back together" against the foes of democracy. Passion and commitment marked the style of president Gauck, says Furstenau of DW.com, and this is true also for Steinmeier. Both also share personal conviction matched with personal experience, Gauck as a pastor in the former GDR looking for alternatives as the GDR crumbled, and Steinmeier is respected for his exceptional work in diplomacy for Germany. Both bring a striaghtforward manner but tremendous sincerity, so that the message is heard with respect from all parts of Germany. Furstenau calls him a German and European patriot. In Gauck's last speech he called for affirming Germany in the EU- "although voices may praise the fool's gold of long outdated nationalism, we will remain Germans- as Europeans, although the uncertainty of our times may be alarming, we will not flee from our responsibility." Steinmeier echoes the same message, backed up with personal conviction and long experience in serving Germany. Gauck called for a "vigilant democracy" that maintains the basic conditions for peace and dialogue, and also shows the willingness to defend the republic and the Basic Law, because " we do not want our country or other European member states to become the playthings of actors who are pursuing entirely different interests." In his acceptance speech Steinmeier called for courage, after Gauck had laid down the theme of Germans "not overlooking the potential within us.... trusting in our own strength and staying calm and composed."   ...

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The Indian government imposes a 40% export tax on onions. Tomato pries have increased fivefold and onion prices have surged with drought in some areas and floods damaging crops. Uneven rainfall is affecting grain supplies also and the Indian government is keeping a close watch on this. Prime minister Modi also stated this in his Independence Day speech.

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The wildly political nature of the events following spending cuts by Republican Governor Walker is seen in the recall elections for 6 Republican and 2 Democratic legislators. Only four such recall elections were held in Wisconsin in all the years since 1926, showing the extent to which the state is divided on the cuts and the rhetoric preceding the cuts. Interest is being shown from outside the state by unions and other interest groups on both sides. As part of the campaign about $30 million is being spent by outside groups filling the airwaves all the way into Minnesota.

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This report by James McCauley of the Washington Post, points to the uncertainties in the French presidential election. About one third of French voters are undecided. Le Pen and a surprise candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon are pulling in voters on the far right and the far left. There are questions whether Macron's effort to pull together centre right and centre left voters will work in such an environment. McCauley says the gist of Macron's approach is summarized in a line in his 2016 book- removing "the obstacles on the road," making equality of opportunity a reality in a land of elite government and business running the country, and key being " renewal of ideas and men."  It is not exactly a way forward, more about renewal in French society. His opponents are pitching exiting the European Union and different visions of a protectionist welfare state. Macron is pitching continuity with renewal and changes to bring more opportunity to young people by investing in vocational education, recreate French schools, and expand health services, lower residency taxes. A lot depends on centrist voters coming out to vote as happened in the recent Dutch election, and undecided voters looking for renewal instead of the uncertainty of drastic changes. ...

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Ivan Rogers, UK ambassador to the European Union for three years till 2017 was sharply critical of the British government and forecast some of the Brexit problems. He has a book "9 Lessons in Brexit," which appeared in Feb. 2019. Here he is interviewed by Der Spiegel. He says he expected some of the problems but is still surprised that 4 weeks before the deadline the political class in Britain has not yet figured out what kind of Brexit they want. Here he points out that Cameron and Blair represented the centre in British politics. But that centre has now collapsed after the financial crisis and the period of austerity led to widening gaps between the different parts of British society. The public is now deeply alienated from both major parties. In both parties the populists on the left and the right have gained a bigger influence, as a result there are no centre right or centre left figures who command public influence. Rogers is a civil servant of high rank who has worked with several prime ministers including Blair and Cameron. His comments are worth listening to.  Was Theresa May the right person to tackle Brexit? Her problem says ROgers is that she started with a hardline position of reducing the number of people entering the UK from inside or outside the EU. Once you do this you cannot have free movement of goods, services and capital, so you have to leave the single market. And if Britain wanted a fully autonomous trade policy then it cannot stay in the customs union. Rogers thinks Theresa May never really understood what this meant- that it was going much further out of the European Union than Norway or Switzerland, or even Turkey. Now as she is trying to go back her right wing cries betrayal. Do British prime ministers understand the single market, the customs union, or how the EU really works? Rogers worked on European issues for a long time and he says after working very closely with British prime ministers that none of them had a deep understanding of how the European Union works. Plus they lack any emotional attachment to the EU, because of the mercantile relationship Britain has had with its neighbors. About the relationships in Europe between the Germans, the French, the British, what is it and what will it be like? Rogers says he has not seen a thinner relationship in his lifetime. He thinks the European political elites are not talking to each other anything like what was done 20 or 30 years ago. He says the Brits have to take a lot of the responsibility because the British political class lost interest in Europe. What could the Europeans have done? Rogers says the chaos continues because the British don't really know where they want to go. It opaque about the relationship on purpose. Have the Europeans thought about what kind of a continent they want to see after all this is over? This interview tells you more about the Brexit problem that many reports and opinions, bringing a thoughtful way of looking at the problem. ...

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Amazon has 15,000 employees in Seattle from global employees of about 97,000. New towers being built in downtown Seattle will bring 12,000 new workers to Seattle. The development is similiar to that of other companies such as Twitter which are developing urban spaces to attract young employees with children. This means the city has to bring public schools and create residential space in the city. The area Amazon is using was bought by Microsoft founder Paul Allen for development that never started and is from the city's gritty maritime past. Northeastern University based in Boston has started a remote campus near Amazon buildings. A park next to the Museum of History and Industry provides green space. And the Museum itself was renovated with a contribution from Amazon founder Bezos. Amazon's head of global estate and facilities, John Schoelter, says the renewal of the area was apparent as soon as Amazon began work in South Lake Union area. Instead of driving through this area people now mingle in urban spaces here. ...

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Matteo Renzi, Mayor of Florence, and a candidate for leadership of the Democratic Party in Italy described the voting for presidential candidate Marini, a union leader who is 80, as "disrespectful to the country," and as "a candidate of the past century." The voting exposed deep rifts between the younger and older generations in Italy.

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US president Biden is proposing a Medicare Solvency Support plan that will increase funding to the Medicare hospital-insurance trust fund. Biden stated in the State of Union message last week that Republicans under former candidate Trump would cut Medicare for the elderly in America.

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Micheline Maynard gets diverse views on bankruptcy filing and bailout for General Motors and Ford. Out of hundreds of comments, (looking at the comments based on reader recommends from 70 to 15 readers recommend range), with over 90% of comments favoring no bailout money for automakers without coming to grips with problems and replacing management and the board, it is clear that readers cite in order of importance the following against the automakers. Complicity with Congress and lobbyists in keeping fuel efficiency low. This sent billions of dollars to mideast nations for oil, which in turn bloated liquidity here at home, helping fuel the cheap credit era in the US and building consumer and mortgage debt. This lack of conservation in gasoline use burdened economies around the world with high oil prices, and then hit the car companies in Detroit hard as sales of large vehicles collapsed. Its entirely the Detroit carmakers own shortsightedness they say. Second most mentioned is bad management, and bad decisions and arrogance. Third the unions bloated contracts, and bankruptcy as the only way to get rid of them. Fourth failure to make green cars. Fifth the lack of any idea what $25 or $50 billion given to GM and Chrysler would get the taxpayer, because if the market has collapsed then more money will be needed each year to pay salaries and contiinue operations in 2009, followed by 2010. The market has gone from 16 milllion to a 10 million rate in October 2008, if it drops to 8 million in 2009, it would require the companies to shrink by 50% as a rough guess, and the union contracts just negotiated would be totally inappropriate for the new market and financial conditions. Getting rid of those union contracts could only be done in a bankruptcy filing, as in bankruptcy everything would have to be done from scratch. Whereas in a bailout the unions would simply refuse to cooperate as they have done in the past. This is also what readers are saying when they say let the market economy work. A look at the reader comments on similar articles in the Washington Post and the WSJ also show an overwhelming number of readers not favoring taxpayer money for automakers without serious changes, and bringing a completely new management and board to get things off to a fresh start, with no legacy from the past. ...

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President Zoran Milanovic is reelected president of Croatia with 74% of the vote in Jan 2025. He is supported by Social Democrats party and is critical of the European Union and NATO.

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Plans by France's Sarkozy government to increase the VAT (value added tax) to 19% from 16%, and reduce the amount companies have to pay for pensions and social welfare costs, making this up with the extra proceeds from the Social VAT. The argument is that imported products would take up part of the burden of the social welfare system. The Socialists who oppose the move say this will lead to lowering employee pay and a push by unions for higher wages, which will offset the benefits of such a move and reduce France's competitive edge in wages. As France faces a possible downgrade in its credit rating the focus has shifted on taking action in such areas as the Social VAT, and a move to allow working hours and pay to vary with demand. German competitiveness improved with action taken by the German government in these areas. Germany raised the VAT from 16% to 19% in 2007. Sarkozy will discuss these proposals with business and union leaders on January 18, 2011.

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This Editorial Board editorial in the WSJ should be titled Ukraine Corruption and Ukrainian people's interests in good governance. The reason is that beyond ensuring that the $187 billion sent by the US is used without corruption and this editorial cites evidence that this is the case through many oversight authorites US and EU has set up- there is the larger interest of the people of Ukraine battered and fatigued by 4 years of war. Corruption becomes an accepted practice in many democracies. Nations such as India that were mired in corrupt practices in state governments are seeing major changes in the last decade with public funds dedicated to infrastructure going to build the new infrastructure India needs to modernize its economy. It is proving that this is possible in Asia, as is shown in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China and now India. There is every reason to believe Ukraine can achieve this good governance with sufficient efforts and this is the goal set by the European Union, by Germany, Britain and France, for Ukraine. ...

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Extreme German dependence on Russian oil and gas that happened under the administration of Angela Merkel and the high oil prices today from a a lack of development of alternative renewable energy resources created the situation that provided the financing for Russia's war in Ukraine. This is now unwinding as the European Union and the US set a price cap of $60 for Russian oil. This cap will in future reflect the cost of production of oil in Russia among other factors, and the lower demand for fossil fuels as renewable energy production is accelerated quickly, and the inflation fighting efforts of the US central bank. Gradually the mechanisms and environment is being created for an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

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EU measure that seeks to curb imports of coffee, cocoa, soy, beef, palm oil and wood when it is determined that it drives deforestation in the source country. To qualify as "deforestation-free" the land on which these food and other products were grown cannot have been deforested or degraded since Dec. 31, 2020. Demand from European Union countries for commodities such as beef and cocoa are strong drivers of deforestation, says Frans Timmermans, vice president of the EU. This comes after COP26 Glasgow conference where over 100 countries signed an agreement to end deforestation. The EU commissioner for the environment says "we can't ask for ambitious policies on the environment from partner countries on the one hand and support deforestation on the other."

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This report in the WSJ shows Pfizer is expected to make $8 billion in profit on its vaccine business, and Astra Zeneca barely breakeven in the vaccine business. The British-Swedish drugmaker Astra Zeneca had offered to distribute the vaccine at no profit during the pandemic. For this reason Astra Zeneca is the only vaccine that is available in 170 countries with 1 billion doses released. One of the main recipients is India with a population of 1.2 billion, which is also a vaccine maker for the Astra Zeneca vaccine that was developed at Oxford University, under Indian brand name Covishield. The Pfizer vaccine by contrast was sold to governments in the US and European Union, and Britain, who could afford the large outlay of funds and signed contracts early.

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US plans to keep up with Russian advanced artillery and rocket systems in the invasion of Ukraine by sending its shorter range MLRS rocket system to Ukraine. The MLRS has a short range system that extends for over 40 kms. compared to its long range that goes 186 kms. The US sees the sending of the shorter range MLRS as feasible and not the longer range. Denmark is sending its Harpoon system of rockets that would complement Ukraine's own Neptune system to protect a key Black Sea port of Odessa. US policy is designed to keep Russia from making any serious gains in the war which the US and European Union see as a unprovoked invasion. Popular sentiment in US and EU has backed up the Biden administration.

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After two decades of missteps by management and workers in the auto industry that led to worker concessions on wages to revive the US auto industry the labor movement in the US was weakened. Workers wages have fallen behind with tiered wages offering new workers even less per hour, loss of cost of living adjustments during a period of high inflation. Shawn Fain won the election at the UAW in March 2023 following a direct vote of the leadership by every member of the UAW under a government supervised arrangement. He is now shaking things up at the auto workers union in Detroit and midwestern states asking autoworkers to end the tiered wages, return cost of living adjustments and a 46% wage increase.