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Global smartphone shipment sales are dropping with sticker shock over new smartphone prices, dropping 7% worldwide, and 15% in China in third quarter 2018, according to Canalys. Apple sales have stagnated in China at 8% market share, and shipments volumes have declined by 11% in 2018. Apple gets 20% of its sales revenue from China. Apple is now in fifth place behind Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi in China. Each of the Chinese brands gained from 2 to 5% increase in market share while Apple with its high pricing has stagnated. Apple had high hopes for the Apple XR priced at $945 and ordered large volume of the phone for sale in China. It now has excess unsold inventory of that phone as Chinese competitors with prices at little over half the Apple price the Huawei Mate 20 are proving to be strong competitors. The fact that the Chinese market has declined by 15% in smartphone shipments hurts Apple, even though trade tensions have not created anti-Apple sentiment.   ...

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There is a mixed picture behind the drop in investment in new oil exploration. The IEA estimates that overall investment will be down 15-20% in 2009. The number of drilling rigs in use globally fell 32% in the year to April 2009, to 2055, according to Baker-Hughes, an oilfield services firm. In America the number of rigs in use is down by 50%, and OPEC countries are cancelling 35 big projects, according to the OPEC secretary general, Salem Al-Badri. Cambridge Energy Associates estimates that 5.5 million barrels a day of capacity additions may not take place in the next couple of years, which is a third of expected net increase by 2014. Examine this a bit more closely and you find that the oil majors despite lack of access to oil in inhospitable terrain or foreign countries, are still holding up well in investment. Exxon increased capital spending by 5% in the 1st quarter 2009, and Shell and Chevron plan to invest the same in 2009 as in 2008, $31 billion and $23 billion. BP plans to go from $21 billion to $20 billion. Canadian Tar Sands investments are being reevaluated in the light of prices, and smaller companies like Devon Energy are cutting back, for Devon from $9 billion in 2008 to $4 billion in 2009. From the national oil companies the investments are holding up in Saudi Arabia, whereas they are faltering in Russia and cash strapped Venezuela. Saudi Aramco recently completed a 5 year project increasing capacity from 10m b/d to 12.5 b/d at cost of $70 billion. And another $60 billion is set aside for more investments which will be less vigorously pursued as Saudis have 4.5m b/d of idle capacity after production cutbacks by OPEC. Petrobras plans to increase its investment by 55% to $174 billion in the next 5 years in offshore discoveries challenged by deep waters and thick layers of salt. The oilfield services companies like Schlumberger are cutting back, with Schlumberger cutting investment in 2009 by 13% to $2.6 billion and shedding 5000 jobs. Baker Hughes shed 3000 jobs. Mature fields are also receiving less investment, so that the drop from mature fields will be 9.4% according to IEA instead of 7.7% projected earlier with larger investments. The picture described above shows investments by the Saudis, the majors, oil field services firms, investments in recovery improvements in mature fields, not in a precipitious decline. The picture is of cautious and careful investment and some pullbacks as the economies of the US suffered decline in GDP of 6% in the 1st quarter 2009 over prior year and the German and Japanese economies suffered decline of 15-16%. Even the most optimistic forecasts for China do not go above 8% for 2009. In the light of these growth estimates the moderate drop in investments in new oil exploration may match the moderation in growth in Asia and the drop in growth in the USA and Europe and Japan. The forecasts of steeply higher oil prices or spikes like those in 2007-2008 are based on the notion of a quick economic recovery. See the links to economic recovery on this. These links suggest that the current surge may not last as the basics for a recovery are weak. In the US foreclosures, toxic assets, housing, consumption and savings, and unemployment all indicate a weak economy for several years down the road. And it is this weakness that the oil investment exploration budgets may be responding to in amoderated manner. The latest sign of this weakness is the spread of foreclosures to prime borrowers with job losses, link NYT May 24, 2009. The Saudi king thinks that $75 is a fair price for oil. Current prices have taken oil to $60 a barrel, even as inventories remain strong with over 60 days of supply. No spikes like those in the past are realistic in this economic environment....

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Compared to 2008 Hillary Clinton is now very clear that she will stand up for woman's issues openly- "it is about no ceilings, no limits, for any of us." About playing the women's card she says "deal me in." One of the paradoxes of this election season is that white women registered voters 35 to 64 years of age have shown less enthusiasm for Hillary, around 34-36 percent in polls such as the NBC-WSJ poll. Interestingly the figure climbs to 66 percent for ages 18-34, and to 56 percent for ages over 64, for all women. Experts attribute this to the fact that women over 35 are facing fewer barriers than the women over 64 who remember the hard won battles for women's rights when it was hard for women to get a credit card or run for office, or be promoted in business. Traditional career choices were being teachers or nurses. A lot has changed in the last 20 years, and this has left some women who are no longer facing such barriers turning to other issues to choose their candidate such as happened in their enthusiasm for Bernie Sanders. Overall for all women registered voters  Hillary gets 52 percent support, Trump 37 percent, according to a July 2016 NBC/WSJ poll.   ...

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The "Burning Platform" memo by CEO Stephen Elop, seeks to confront Nokia with the reality of what is happening, as it has fallen years behind competitors who have completely changed the space Nokia was in. Apple's iPhone has redefined the space for smartphones and Apple now owns the high end market. In 2008, Apple's market share in the $300+ price range was 25%, by 2010 it was 61%. Newcomer Android has in 2 years created a platform that by attracting application developers, service providers and hardware manufacturers, is winning the mid-range down to 100 euros. And in 2008, MediaTek provided complete reference designs for phone chipsets, so that Chinese manufacturers in Shenzen could produce phones at an astonishing pace. They now own the low end of the market, producing an estimated one third of the phones sold globally. A crtical part of the memo is about ecosystems. He says it is no longer about hardware and device to device competition, but about ecosystems that include not just hardware and software. It includes developers, applications, ecommerce, advertising, search, social applications, location-based services, unified communications and so on. And Elop says the decision confronting Nokia, is how to build, catalyse or join an ecosystem....

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The good mix of rain and sunshine is leading to higher estimates for wheat production in US, Europe and Australia. Australian production is up by 3 million metric tons over last year. Russia is exporting more than it did last year by 80% in April and by about 25% in May through Black Sea ports. This is easing pressure on wheat prices which are down to $9 a bushel. Russia exports to countries in the Middle East. US production of wheat is expected to be 8% higher this year. 

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The U.S. and India see a surge in coronavirus cases. Per day cases surged to 40,000 on June 25 in U.S. and 17,000 in India. Alabama, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona, California, Florida are seeing a surge in new cases. Texas, California and Florida all recorded more than 5000 cases each. In California cases for hospitalization surged 32% with more than 4200 in hospitals.

India now has 490,000 cases with death toll of 15,301. Indian Railways cancelled all bookings. In the U.S. Texas is paused reopening plans.

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Behaviours of young people going to beaches and bars, ignoring social distancing guidelines and not wearing masks is leading to a rise in the number of daily cases in Europe. This includes an illegal rave in a Berlin park. The incidence of coronavirus is now 19.6 per 100,000 people for persons ages 20 to 29 compared to 9.7 per 100,000 for the French population as a whole. Germany has recorded 900 new cases daily, France 1000, and Spain 2000 as a result of these youth behaviours during the last week.

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The lessons from Italy, the epicenter now of the coronavirus pandemic, are clear- act early and decisively, impose quarantines and lockdown quickly to prevent intermingling. These steps need to be put early, with absolute clarity, and strictly enforced. This report in the NYT shows how decisive action early is the only way to prevent the crisis from becoming a large one that threatens the health system and millions. German states such as Bavaria and others now have a $25,000 euro and some have jail time. Singapore has jail time and fines for violating the stay home quarantine orders which it imposes after contact tracing. Taiwan has similar measures. Enforcement and strict control are part of the tools that have worked in these places and in China, South Korea.  Britain has still to close flights from Iran, Italy, which The Times reports on March 20 are still landing at Heathrow. This is after the U.S. weeks earlier banned flights from China, Iran, Italy, and last week from Europe after EU nations failed to take action early.  ...

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David Reilly warns that though the U.S. Federal Reserve's stress tests of U.S. banks showed they passed- including approval for dividends and share buyback- except for Ally Financial and Citigroup, this can be deceptive. True, the Fed used 13% unemployment and sharp drop in stock market prices as conditions. The problem is with capital ratios. The Fed used a leverage ratio of 3%. It should not be forgotten that the financial crisis of 2008 was caused by excessive leverage and risk. Tested on this measure the banks fail to achieve safe levels of leverage and risk. Under the Fed's highest stress scenario Citigroup ratio was at 2.9%, Morgan Stanley's at 3.4%, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan at 3.8%- what ths means is that the leverage for these banks was at 26-29 times capital. Reilly raises the question- how is this so different than the leverage used by these banks before the crisis. The stress tests in the U.S. by the U.S. Federal Reserve are lauded for being better than the European Banking Authority's stress tests, but is this a standard by which to judge them? Before the collapse of Lehman in 2008, experts including Anil Kashyap at the University of Chicago, pointed out that for every $1 of bank losses in a deleveraging cycle bank lending goes down at banks by $10, and for investment banks at $20-$30 depending on leveraging- in David Henry and Matthew Goldstein, Business Week, July 16, 2008, How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street? Lehman's leverage ratio was between 24-31 times capital before the crisis. Worse, by saying banks are now safe compared to the situation before the crisis, is the Fed giving the green light to banks for some of the same leveraging behaviour that ocurred before the crisis?...

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Turkey's elections for parliament and for president are on May 14, 2023. President Erdogan is running again after two decades in power. Turkey faces high inflation of over 57% which has created a serious cost of living crisis in Turkey. Erdogan has issued a wide range of stimulus measures- energy subsidies, a doubling of the minimum wage, pension increases, and a chance for 2 million retirees to retire immediately. A kilogram of tomatoes used to cost 8-10 liras and now costs 25 liras. Rents are going up with steep increases. Turkey has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine as it depends on Ukraine for grain supplies. A popular mayor of Istabul Ekrem Imamoglu from the Opposition is shown here as an alternative for president. Erdogan started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul with the military opposing him. His management of the economy helped him win two terms as president, which is now in a severe crisis.

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The average price of a smartphone in India in 2022 was $206 excluding taxes, Apple's smartphones go for $898. With discounts Apple is now bringing the price down to below $500. In 2019 phones over $500 made up 3% of the market. This has increased to 6% in 2022. Apple is counting on this share of the market going up and prices being brought down below $500 to build a larger share of the market. Its market in 2023 is about 5% in India compared to 22% in China.

In China Apple has its own stores. It is only now opening its first store in Mumbai. This and building manufacturing facilities in India could be the way to increase its share of the market in India to where it provides an alternative comparable to the Chinese market. This is the first time after the pandemic and the supply chain issues, the idea of friendshoring, that Apple is reorienting its policy for making India a key part of its supply chain and market. 

 

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Mike Clancy of The Prospect writes in The Times of London that he has found that two thirds of remote workers working from home would like to have the right to unplug from work and not be expected to connect with the office at some point in the day, and that this would have a hugely beneficial impact on mental health.   The biggest problem that workers working from home have found during this pandemic for one year now is that it blurs the line between work and life outside of work having a negative impact on one's mental health. Surveys have found that about half of remote workers like the idea of working from home, having time from commute and being able to be have more freedom from being tied down to the office space. Companies are looking at cutting about 25 to 50% of office space but have not looked at the problems workers have and not set new rules about when the line for work is set and workers can cut off from work and not be expected to be reachable by the office. Clancy even goes on to say that companies have looked at the problems of the last century not this one and largely stayed away from tackling the real problems of workplace- stress, burnout and surveillance. Lyrarc recommends readers look at the way Germans approach this idea of blurred distinctions between work and life outside of work in the idea of "Feierabend" that literally means breaking away from work at some point say 4.00 pm or 5.00 pm to take a bike ride or walk or do something else. ...

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Since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis Ford Motor Company has added $8 billion in unsecured debt and $15 billion in credit lines. It now has $35 billion in cash as it faces the loss of $5 billion in the second quarter. Ford idled its plants in U.S. and Europe since mid-March.  Ford plans to reopen production on May 18.

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The first round of France's parliamentary elections show president Macron's party, La Republique en Marche, winning 28% of the vote. The turnout was low, below 50%, below the turnout of 57% in 2012 and 60% in 2007. The Republican Party gained 22% and the National Front 13%. The Socialist Party lost heavily gaining only 7% of the vote.

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The Bernanke Fed's low interest rates are hurting seniors and savers who are earning very little on their savings. This is taking money away from millions of savers and reducing consumption spending by seniors and savers. According to the Labor Department average annual investment income for 24.6 million American households headed by seniors over the age of 65 was $2,564 in 2009. This is down significantly from prior years. A survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute shows that one in three retirees have had to dig deeper into their savings to cover basic necessities in 2010. With inflation at an annualized rate of 5.6% in the first quarter 2011, interest rates of 0.24% on savings accounts do little to cover inflation. There is a sense that this is hurting retirees who have lived prudently and worked hard and on savers of different ages. This actually discourages healthy savings that would protect Americans from job losses and build a safer future. American contributions to bank and 401 (k) accounts is only 4% of disposable income in 2010, according to the Fed. Another danger is that the smaller 401 (k) accounts of the average American family after losses in earlier stock market declines, will again be exposed to the fluctuations and risk in the stock market. This could happen as money is shifted to the stock market in the hope of earning better returns. Seniors are an active voting group, and voting patterns show a shift to Congressional candidates who question Fed policy....

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This interview of president Trump by Matthew Bender of the WSJ is following the release of John Bolton's book. Mr.Bolton says Mr. Trump was willing to make compromises in China policy to win reelection. Mr. Trump says Mr. Bolton's statements are not true. Mr. Bolton says in the book and in a WSJ article that Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Pence also called for Mr. Trump to censure China for its treatment of minorities in Xinjiang province. Instead he says Mr. Trump told Xi Jinping that he could go ahead with the building of camps In Xinjiang province for minorities. Mr. Trump says he signed the deal for censure of China passed by Congress because he wanted to. The reporter from WSJ say Pompeo and Pence had called for it earlier,  but that this was signed only today. Mr. Trump does say that he has changed his views on China after what he calls the Chinese plague. Mr. Bender says he is wondering if Mr. Trump thinks differently about the trade deal now. Mr. Trump says he thinks that the trade deal is a great deal but that "But ever since we got hit with the Chinese plague.I feel different about everything having to do with China." He says he is hardline on China. And he believes Bolton had no idea he could get tariffs payments by China. In his view Bolton just lacks the economic sense. Bolton is a hard liner but stupid says Trump. That he Trump is also hardliner, but with economic sense. Early on in the interview Mr. Trump says he sees a V type recovery is likely after the good jobs numbers 17.7% increase in retail sales. He also says he left a lot of tariffs in the deal, a big portion about 25%.. In any case Mr. Trump says repeatedly since the virus hit America his view his perspective has changed, a very different perspective on China, views it very differently.  Mr. Trump says he had hardly signed the deal and soon after the virus hits. So now he views the whole deal differently today, he now views the relationship with China differently. The conversation started with Mr. Trump signing about 254 nominations for new judges. He says 75% of small business is now open.  Mr Trump says his goal for a second term is to have a strong powerful economy. Mr.Bolton agrees that Mr. Trump was doing the right thing here to build a strong economy to support its policy. Only that he was making him, Pompeo, Pence and Lighthizer on trade issues, think that Trump would give in on national policy issues to China, on issues of U.S. national interest.  ...

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This self portrait by Vladimir Putin about his growing up years in Leningrad and the life of his father and mother during the siege of Leningrad by Germans may offer a better sense of the mind and thinking of the Russian president than the Dresden years when he was a junior Russian official in Communist East Germany (the GDR). It is an interview of the Russian president in 2000 by Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov over twenty years back. Putin's father suffered severe injuries during the war in the fighting around Leningrad, twice being given up for dead and being dragged wounded across the frozen Neva river to a hospital by a neighbor. His mother was half dead from starvation and his father passed on his food given to him at the hospital. Having gone through the memories of this period affected Vladimir Putin's view of the world and no amount of US or German assurance about NATO's intentions may have erased these memories from childhood. The long period in power and the Covid isolation may have led to  perceptions that were less likely to change so that Putin did his own research and wrote a long paper on Ukraine in 2021 that reflected Russia and Ukraine's long history but did not reflect the changing national aspirations of Ukraine's people in 2022. This may have led to the miscalculation and the errors by both Putin and the leaders Merkel-Bush-Obama that the detailed WSJ report of 20 years of events show to have happened. The WSJ report of April 1, 2022, was titled "Vladimir Putin's 20 Year March to War in Ukraine and How the West Mishandled It." The Social Democrats in Germany under Schroeder and Steinmeier mishandled it by deepening economic integration with Russia as a way to make up for what had happened in the German invasion of Russia, and the Christian Democrats under Merkel with business interests never really grasped the different thinking of the Russian president relying solely on deep economic integration of the EU and Germany with Russia as well as China as an answer. Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama from a distance even less so.  This has led to the miscalculation by Russia under Putin leading to invasion of Ukraine, and the US and Germany being unprepared about taking action to prevent it.  Beyond the key participants and the war damage, there is the enormous damage that is taking place in the mental health around the world after Covid with constant barrage of images of war and refugees streaming into Poland. There is the problem of food imports, of food scarcity in the Middle East, and inflation in food prices for Africa and the Middle East. As Brendan Simms, a Cambridge historian has shown in his book "Europe The Struggle of Supremacy 1453 to the Present," which is now being read by German chancellor Scholz, this has happened before with the UK, Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia engaging in these conflicts that led to prolonged wars and eventually to only small shifts in power. Yet with huge effects for ordinary people caught in the wars such as today's refugees and people struggling to feed their families in Africa and Asia after the effects of Covid on income. Food prices have gone up by 50% to almost double in these countries.   ...

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The economic crisis in Turkey in 2022 wiped out half of the value of the lira. Inflation surged. The war in Ukraine hurt Turkey as it is dependent on Ukraine for grain supplies. The surge in fuel prices and the weaker currency meant higher inflation and more of its scarce foreign reserves going to imports of oil and gas. Net foreign reserves dropped to $6 billion in July, coming back up to $26 billion by December 2022.  President Erdogan maintained close relations with Russia to have access to  Russian oil and gas. Turkey has increased exports to Russia by 45% including clothing, household appliances and electronics. Russia is considering postponement of $20 billion owed for natural gas imports. And Russia transferred $5 billion to Turkey in July for a nuclear plant, with $10 billion expected later on. This helps cover the more than $100 billion the Turkish central bank used in 2022 to support the currency Lira. Erdogan's foreign policy has been to act as an intermediary in a UN negotiation for opening the Black Sea shipments of grain from Ukraine and fertilizer exports from Russia. This helps Arab countries in North Africa including Egypt which depend on Ukraine for vital grain supplies.  Everything Erdogan does says a former foreign minister is designed to push up his poll ratings which have risen about 5 percentage points from a low of about 39% in January of 2022 to about 44%. Inflation at 57% in Jan 2023 is still hurting ordinary people in Turkey and the outcome of the May 2023 election after 20 years of Erdogan in power is uncertain.  ...

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As Arnold Schwarznegger's time as governor of California comes to a close, the state is still short of $20 billion to pay for all the services that it provides. Arnold's popularity is down to 27% and he has failed to bring financial order to the state- the state is simply broke. Hikes in tution for the state's university system and other moves haven't been enough. And Arnold is down to warning the federal government that California's safety net faces further shredding- with more pain for the elderly and children, and in the schools.

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View from Le Monde in France on the visions of Macron, Merz,, and Rubio for rebuilding the transatlantic alliance.  France under Macron sees less hope for the rebuild of the transatlantic friendship. The Germans under Merz and Soder of Bavaria see it differently. As shown in Nina Haase's interveiw with Johann Wadephul Germany's Foreign Minister, he sees Marco Rubio's speech very positively and like Merz wants to rebuild the relationship. It is not fully understood in Europe that Vance was also. partly reflecting his own views and his own tendency to sound and act like DJT. RUbio was once a candidate for the presidency in 2014 whom DJT had to defeat in the primaries. Rubio's recent book on how the elites have failed US and Europe shows a man of his own convictions. He and DJT agree because he brings out the best that is in the Republican party today to look back at its heroes from the past, Teddy Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln with a profound belief in western civilization and America's role in it. When seen in this context it changes everything- all that talk of Vance means little because Vance is a much less experienced politician from the midwestern state of Ohio compared to Rubio with his long years in the Florida legislature and in the Senate in Foreign Affairs. Rubio speaks for the United States so much more so than an inexperienced and very young politician from Ohio who has emerged only in the last 5 years, compared to Rubio's 20 years in public service. ...

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China is closing energy inefficient aging factories. The Chinese government plans to close 76 factories in cement, 279 in paper, 175 in steel, and 84 in leather as part of this effort. This still leaves China with a lot of work to do to acheve the 20% reduction per unit of economic output in 2010 compared to 2005, that its current five year plan calls for. Efficiency went up by 14.4% in the first four years of the current plan, but went down by 3.6% in the first quarter causing serious concern.

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WSJ analysis of NatCen data from whatukthinks.org show much has changed since the last general election in Britain. Boris Johnson's popularity is at a negative 20% and Theresa May's at negative 35% in July 2019. By the time of the general election May's popularity was at negative 1%.  Another major change is that the popularity of Leave has dropped.  By July 2019 the situation is reversed Remain now has 52% support and Leave is at 48% support. During the referendum it was just the reverse.  Also significant is that some of the claims of Leave's Mr. Cummings that were used in the campaign such as $436 million going to the EU in Brussels that would be diverted to National Health Service are now not credible. The migration issue has also become less important as migration into the EU is now down to a trickle and Germany has reversed its policies to trying to keep migrants at home in Africa through aid and other means. The migration issue was played up in the campaign. Germany was seen as pursuing the austerity policies that hurt the working class as these policies made headlines daily for Greece and other countries during the period of Britain's referendum. In 2019 Germany is taking a less active role in the European Union and the leader of the CDU Kamprauer has openly called for Britain to remain in the EU alongside other Germans from all walks of life. In short the mood is now different in Europe as there is disillusionment with leaders from the far right or the far left and the centrists on the right (Merkel)and the left (Blair) who had used politics to stay in power instead of tackling the tough problems of wages, middle class decline, infrastructure and family friendly policies. The Irish backstop is now in the picture when Brexit comes up as Mr. Johnson wants to drop it. The Irish backstop is the term for the agreement reached with the EU so that Ireland's return to peace with open borders ending Catholic vs Protestant conflict would not be disturbed by Britain's leaving the EU. This could also swing voters who are undecided to maintain what has been achieved so far. The Labour party leaders who were fed up with the austerity policies of the European Union driven by Ms. Merkel and the CDU now have a situation where the issue of Brexit can be seen not in terms of the past- austerity, dependence on Brussels for Britain's economic future and working class decline. Other issues such as unity of the UK, the end to austerity policies in the EU and in the U,S. with the Trump economic policy of dropping deficit targets in budgetary outlays, also signal a different climate for the Labour party in which to campaign for remaining within the EU and continue Britain's policy of working to improve conditions for the working class and middle class after the Blair/Clinton/Merkel years.    ...

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What Peter Bernstein, 90, remembers about the Great Depression. He says one was conscious of it evertime you walked outside on the stree, and people looked so threadbare. A mass of policy errors made the situation worse. And life was different then, more like a developing country as the USA went through the throes of urbanization and industrialization. Food took up about a quarter of disposable income compared to one tenth today. About 20% of the jobs were in agriculture in 1930, compared to 2% today. Less than half of the jobs were in service industries in 1930 compared to 75% today. And there were no food stamps, no unemployment insurance, no social security, no medicaid and medicare, none of the automatic income things that maintain income in the USA today for people out of work. Economist Robert Solow, 90, remembers growing up in Brooklyn, New York, and how his parents constantly worried about the next month's money. Paul Samuelson, another economist, 93, remembers attending classes at the University of Chicago during the depression years. And he says the economics lecures were on laissez-faire principles, which stopped making sense when he looked out the windows and from what he saw and heard on the street. Showing how out of touch policies were in the early years when the depression's worst chartacteristics took shape. However we are in the early stages of this, and it can still be very painful as people make it through the storms ahead. What will things look like as the nations unemployment rate hits 10% by 2010,? Which means things are much much worse in parts of the country like the midwest, where industries like the automobile industry depend on sales of vehicles which have seen sales go down from 15 million vehicles down to 9 million annualized in 2009, and may see further declines in 2010....

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Jean Raspail is the French author  of "Camp of the Saints" and of "Me Antoine de Tounens King of Patagonia," winner Grand Prize of the Novel 1981 Academie Francaise. Written by Raspail, the son of the Founder of Le Figaro French newspaper in 1973, Camp of the Saints is a book describing Raspail's extraordinary vision of how boats from Bengal would suddenly appear at French shores carrying millions of people from Bengal fleeing conditions of squalor and extreme poverty. 1971 was the year of the Bangladesh war with millions of refugees from Bangladesh at the time called East Pakistan pouring into India from Bangladesh, hit by massive floods the year prior, and then facing an army of occupation from West Pakistan's Punjab ethnic group dominated Army. While calling Raspail's Camp of the Saints "openly racist" Le Monde does not show the events described here as being entirely real- the squalid and the squalor into which Bengal had been plunged by a over a century of British rule in India that as Gandhi showed in the 1920's in "Young India" magazine spent most of the budget on policing, and very little on development except rail for logistics to hold the Empire together. On this the French Left or French Right or the European Left or Right is silent, preferring not to open up the similar situation facing China Hongkong, Shanghai as Treaty ports and Beijing after the Boxer rebellion, the Middle East with Sykes and Picot creating artificial states of Syria and Iraq, and controlling states of Iran and Egypt, and Indochina as French colony. It is not "racist" it only shows what Raspail might have seen on television at that time of the truly squalid conditions, including a famine in Bengal in 1944 that was aggravated by British policies. If Raspail imagined that boats from Bengal would arrive at the shores of France it is not something that is not connected to reality, it is the squalor and squalid conditions- except the reality the so called Right and the Left failed to say was a result of the centuries of colonization that made the region miss the Industrial Revolution. Western India around Bombay and Ahmedabad was far more developed by the 1970's and more so by 2003 when Camp of the Saints was republished. In 2026 Camp of the Saints is outdated. Northern India, Western India and Central India is in the kind of rapid modernization that happened in China, with bullet trains, ports and new highways, new industrial infrastructure, housing, going up every year under the Modi Government. In the paradox of today the Modi government is referred to as racist or religious right without reference to its essential condition, its very spirit of modernization based on science and technology acknowledging and revering the contributions of European nations and America. Bangladesh is eastern Muslim part of Bengal. West Bengal is part of the federal Union of Indian States, and has fallen into disrepair and industrial backwardness within Indian states because of the lack of the rapid modernization that India is going through, under mismanagement of the scale of Venezuela. Much of the media in the west does not report the scale of the mismanagement of some of the states in India that were built on the legacy of the early decades after independence of policy to slow down industrialization and corruption that destroyed infrastructure investment. The federal government of India and the states run by the party at the federal level in northern, western, central and north eastern India oppose migration to the US and Europe and are now growing at the fastest pace in the world, faster than China, growing at 10-12 percent a year. Bihar state in India is the home of Lord Buddha and the origins of Buddhist civilization of China and Japan. It has a population of 130 million and is growing at 22% a year in 2026. India needs its young people at home, even though it is willing to loan some of its technical people to Germany and Europe and the US. The Indian federal government policy and policy of these Indian states run under federal policy is to oppose migration and find jobs for millions in a rapidly modernizing economy at home. This then is the reality in India, as well as China, with 2.8 billion people. No one in India, not Gandhi if he were here today, not the government in the Indian federal union and states faults Raspail and others and calls them "racist," because of the extraordinary help first Japan, then China and now India receives from America and the European Union to develop and modernize quickly. In fact Indians look with admiration on the western leaders in science and technology, the scientists and inventors of Europe and the US, and are eager to emulate them in the future. And this is true also of the people of China, and reflects the aspirations of the new generation. ...