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Under an agreement reached by EU finance ministers in November 2010, beginning in 2013 euro-zone bonds will include clauses requiring bondholders to accept restructuring measures if necessary. Germany wanted to see an earlier phase-in period. Both in the Greek bailout and in the measures taken for aiding Ireland, investors were protected from losses resulting from bank failures or government default. As taxpayers in Europe are bearing the cost of the bailouts, and with the rising anger that has resulted, Germany has insisted on bondholders bearing their share of the losses from risky decisions. France argued for flexibility, as a result this was introduced with a caveat. Bondholders could face losses, but only on a case by case basis, witht the IMF providing guidance. Germany has argued that markets need to factor in the risk in their calculations for each country, and this will increase the costs if countries engage in excessive borrowing, as bondholders will have to account for the extra risk. This would prevent the recurrence of the crisis currently facing the euro-zone....

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MaC Group, a risk advisor to Spanish banks, says Spanish banks hold about 30 billion pounds of distressed real estate and unsellable land. Prices are down 28% from the peak in 2007, according to a report by the IESE Business School, and are expected to fall a further 15-20 percent in the next 2-3 years by some experts. Much of the bank owned land is far from city centers and there is no demand for this. One Madrid based consultant R.R. de Acuna Asociados, says 43% of bank owned land is poorly located and there may be no demand for unfinished residential units for decades. The new government of Mariano Rajoy plans to take action to cleanup the banking system. Louis de Guindos, director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and IE Business School Center of Finance is expected to become the new finance minister. Guindos says strict rules need to be implemented, with some banks able to handle this and others that won't. MaC Group's Cantos, a managing partner, says the gap is huge between prices offered by banks and what investors will pay- as much as 70%. Prime assets can be sold for 30% discount but the land, residential and commercial real estate will require discounts of 70%. Banks have made provisions for losses of 30%, and are now facing the prospect of another 40% in losses. As a result many of the medium and small sized banks which operate only inside Spain may have to be shut down or consolidated by the government of Mariano Rajoy. Only the larger banks like Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao, La Caxia, and Bankia are likely to surivive....

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The encouraging sign is that bank by bank results -with how the exposure plays out for sovereigh default risk- will be released in the European bank stress test resullts. Access to funds from private capital and a degree of transparency helped banks in the US recover their footing.The same access to private capital could help recapitalize European banks, in addition to the access they have to public funds.

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The European Central Bank headed by Christine Lagarde is ending its 8 year experiment with negative interest rates. It will increase rates from negative to zero as a first step. The US Fed and central banks around the world are increasing rates with inflation and supply chain disruptions leading to higher prices.

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Francesco Guerrera of the WSJ interviews Sergio Ermotti, CEO of Swiss bank UBS, and Andrea Orcel, the head of UBS investment bank. He asks Ermotti why the drastic restructuring at UBS, especially the downscaling of its investment banking operation. Ermotti says its because it was time to stop throwing money away on activity that did not cover the bank's cost of capital and the unhappiness of shareholders with the way UBS was operating. The string of bad news from UBS with legal settlements, trading scandals and huge losses have created a special situation at UBS which required drastic action. UBS was able to take the action also because of its successful wealth management business, which will become the core of its future business. Other banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley with large fixed income, currency and commodity (FICC) businesses, get more of their earnings from this unit and are less likely to follow UBS.

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Macron says all of Algeria's problems are blamed on France and Algeria's rulers are in a tough system. He says Turkey's ability to wipe away the period before 1830 when Algeria was under the Ottoman Empire does not impress him. His point is that France was not the only colonizer when it took over Algeria in 1830. Macron also says French rule created the Algerian nation as an entity, that Algeria we know today did not exist before the French.

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Blackston and Karnitschnig describe the European Central Bank's role in the current crisis and buying of bonds of troubled eurozone countries. And the resistance in Germany to the ECB's purchase of bonds of eurozone countries to prevent contagion effects in the eurozone. ECB President Trichet only reluctantly pushed the ECB into bond purchases in the recurring crises, and saw the ECB's role as strictly limited to controlling inflation and maintaining a stable euro currency. There is resistance in Germany to the ECB printing money to cover eurozone debt of Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain. This comes from the searing experience with hyperinflation, an economic crisis similiar to that of the U.S. with the Great Depression, when the Reichsbank printed money in the 1920's to buy large quantities of government bonds. The Bundesbank that ensured Germany's postwar recovery focussed on a single mandate to control inflation, and this is a key part of the ECB's charter. The first president of the ECB when it was founded in 1998, was Dutchman Wim Duisenberg, who would tell politicians: "I hear you, but I don't listen." When Frenchman Trichet became the second ECB president, he focussed on inflation fighting efforts. He warned against the extravagant spending and fiscal irresponsibility of some eurozone countries saying "we are dancing on a volcano."...

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The U.S. Fed, America's central bank, barrs bank buyback of shares and limits dividend payouts to quarterly profit. The Fed does this as it warns banks they could sustain heavy losses of $700 billion for soured loans if the economy is slow to recover over several quarters, and unemployment remains high. The Fed's latest stress test for banks included the impact of the coronavirus epidemic. At this time the Fed says banks are healthy and this is protective action to keep the banks in safety.

Another sign of the changes taking place in finance and banking- swift action by the U.S. central bank leadership to stop early any potential improper behaviour of banks to do debt buybacks or dividend payout not meeting rules related to profit. 

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This article in the Economist magazine points out that official data do not accurately show the health of the banking sector, with large number of bad loans at smaller banks. Bank shares it points out are priced in a way that reflects bad loans at 5-10% of loans.

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Areas in the "too big to fail" part of Dodd-Frank U.S. financial reform legislation where work remains to be done to prevent a future crisis include: the creation of living wills by the largest banks so that they can be dismantled in an orderly fashion, and the designation of which banks are systemic risks by the Financial Oversight Stability Council. The FDIC and the Federal Reserve have yet to finalize the rules for creating "living wills" for large banks. The rules are expected to be finalized by fall 2011. The FOSC is working on the designations and what criteria to use for selecting the non-bank firms that pose systemic risks. Progress has been made at the FDIC by finishing several rules for implementing a new system to wind down a large failing bank. The FDIC is hiring staff for a new office that focusses specifically on large complex financial firms. Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo has led the effort for higher capital reserve requirements for U.S. banks, requirements that would be closer to 14% for capital reserves. In an editorial on June 16, 2011, the Wall Street Journal said that if the Federal Reserve is serious about controlling systemic risk then it should support capital reserve requirements of 14%....

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In its performance review for Pakistan the IMF says growth estimate is 2.8% for 2014. The IMF sees a poor outlook for the balance of payments situaion, and has raised the issue of critically low foreign exchange reserves. Inflation is increasing and is at about 11%. Foreign currency reserves have declined from over $6 billion in 2013 to less than $4 billion. Yaseen Anwar resigned as head of Pakistan's central bank in Jan 2014, as Pakistan begins its second quarterly review with the IMF representatives in Dubai. The IMF has only released $1.1 billion from a $6.7 billion bailout in Sept. 2013. The quarterly reviews are designed to see that Pakistan meets the bailout conditions. The new administration of prime minister Nawaz Sharif is making an effort to bring the security situation under control in Karachi and other cities to generate business confidence and expansion.

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Nobuyuki Hirano, a banker with international experience and a former director at Morgan Stanley, becomes the new president of Japan's largest bank. Hirano has 13 years overseas experience and this is expected to be an asset as Mitsubishi UFJ increases its global business. The European debt crisis has opened up opportunites for asset sales to Japanese companies.

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Worl Bank lowers China's GDP growth rate for 2009 to 6.5% and inflation at just 0.5%. It sees problemaic deflation risk further ahead. It says it is not in CHina's interest to depreciate the yuan as it will not gain much in the way of exports by doing this. Chinese exports fell by 26% in February.