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Mike Atherton on India vs England Test cricket series in June-July 2025. It is seen as a Test series for the ages, India vs England 2025. Looking back at the series Australia vs West Indies in 1960 when the Test ended in a tie when Gary Sobers and Richie Benaud were players for their teams, one finds this one drawing the same level of excitement and suspense. The whole series of 5 tests was filled with suspense, Pant's theatrics, Gill's brilliant batting matching world records set by Don Bradman and Jadeja's all rounder performance with bat and ball matching that of Gary Sobers. Bowling was not far behind with Bumrah, Siraj and Stokes.  The England team and the Indian team were evenly matched with Ben Stokes,Root and Woakes, Atkinson, English players giving it their all. Woakes was injured dislocating his shoulder in an effort to save a boundary, such was the fielding effort on the Oval grounds in the final test. Woakes turned up to bat in much pain, but did not face any balls thanks to Atkinson. Stokes bowled overs almost to exhaustion to miss the last Test.  ...

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Gerald Seib of the WSJ says president Biden is coming back with new actions to revive the Democratic agenda after a challenging period in the first year. Yesterday's first formal press conference of 2022 gave Biden an opportunity to respond. Why the WSJ, NYT, did not cover on their online edition front pages president Biden's first formal press conference on Jan. 19, after 1 year of the Biden administration, will remain a mystery. With the American press acting this way it did not take much for Germany's DW.com to run the story with the title "Biden's first year weighed down by disappointment," with a thoughtful Biden at the press conference replaced by a picture of Biden staring downwards.  This is only the first year of the Biden administration. Actions are planned to ease the supply chain situation and bottlenecks at ports. Much is made of inflation, Afghanistan, Ukraine, by Republicans assailing the Biden record. President Biden responded to this by asking at the press conference what Republicans are for. On Afghanistan Biden held firm on not investing billions of dollars every week when there is so much need in America and the rest of the world at this time of the pandemic after a failed adventure for 20 years in "a graveyard for empires."  Biden pointed to the bright spots in 2022- vaccination and testing achievements in the face of anti-vax sentiment with 200 million vaccinated, the job creation in the economy with unemployment way down and wage increases by employers, and the $1 trillion in infrastructure spending tackling much needed projects state by state with immediate impact. Rarely has a president faced so many challenges in the first year as Biden pointed out- vaccination drive in the face of the Delta variant and anti-vax sentiment, the Ukraine crisis with a president Truman period like event of the Berlin Wall coming up just potentially around the corner, and efforts to tackle problems left untackled for a generation in infrastructure, for working families and climate change. Scoring on infrastructure spending, one of the three, with the other two for working families and climate change to be tackled in the remaining three years and beyond.  Biden also told the American audience at the press conference that he was reminded of what his father used to tell him- that if all goals are equally important, nothing is important. In saying this he said help for working families through child tax credit, child care assistance, community college education funding, health care costs, climate change investment were priorities for his administration that would be tackled step by step. And he pointed out from the outset of the conference that only one or two senators were blocking the party's plan for children and working families. All 48 other senators were united in the Democratic party behind his plans for workers and families. As were 5 Republican senators who he said he would not disclose because of confidentiality. In that sense president Biden already has the majority he needs in Congress. This is not happening because of the peculiar situation of the 2016 and 2020 elections in the US and also in Europe- the historical problem of administrations of Democrats in US, Social Democrats in Germany, and Labor in Britain having give up on their working class families and middle class roots. Tech revolution and internet has further complicated the situation with economic changes, tech companies not paying taxes normally due, and tech workers shifting to Democrats yet living in a world distant from working class families fracturing social cohesion. This is changing in Germany with Scholz in Germany with the help of the Greens determined to restore the dignity of working class families, for Biden with a similar coalition, and a process underway in Britain as Labor returns to its roots. In essence Biden was saying- the process of unwinding decades of unwise policy that hurt America as a nation and leader of the free world would take time, requiring a patient step by step approach. To bring America closer to its own roots and Jefferson's immortal words of "all men are created equal and endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, and among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness." Jefferson went on to say in the Declaration that when government becomes destructive of these ends it is the Right of the People to alter it.   ...

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With the change in U.S. position on climate change, carbon emissions, and the move to raise tariffs on China's exports to the U.S. China faces a new dimension in its global relationships. Against this background China is shifting to a long term view of its relationship with India. China's new foreign policy leaders after the recent party Congress, vice president Wang Qishan and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, now see the need for new partners in a multipolar global world for the long term as China and India countries with large populations and a need for stable world trade share common interests. Wang steers the Central Foreign Affairs Commission with Yang Jiechi as director. China now sees " a lot of shared interests, concerns and positions," in the words of China's Representative Lu, in the long term issues of globalisation, urbanization, pollution, and concern for achieving stable development with high growth rates.  China now takes the long view looking back at the unprecedented change of the last 100 years, as it maps out its plans for the future. The U.S. has challenged the ideas in the blueprint for development of "Made in China 2025," particularly as it relates to western transfer of technology to China. This has created a new situation for which China is still looking for answers, and ways to come up with new strategies for development without the nearly unrestricted access to western technology of the last 2 decades.  Shared positions on world trade with India and India's close relations with the U.S. add credibility in China's  negotiating positions with the U.S.                  ...

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As with so much in life too much of anything is bad. Obsession for dealing with inequality without grasping the potential of new technology and people with skills, has hurt both China and India, with both moving to correct this in the last 20 years. Allowing too much inequality disturbs the balance in society damaging democratic processes and creating new dangers for democratic processes.  Today Piketty, and other Western and Asian leaders are presenting the argument for fairer societies principally because this is the only way to generate the kind of cycle for growth seen after the second  world war in the 1940's, 1950's and 1960's  following FDR and Truman, De Gaulle and Adenauer. At some point the curve for growth simply drops with extreme disparities in society- something that happened with disastrous consequences in the history of China and India in the 1500's and the long descent into colonial or semi-colonial rule. That pattern is documented in Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations. And it is a drop no nation or society would want to repeat because of the immense suffering, and the decline of Asian societies in a social and cultural sense, leading to a closed outlook to science in general and knowledge accumulation behaviours based on scientific observation of Nature over the course of the 17th to 19th century.  Some traces of this in the early stages are evident in the US and Europe which is why all well meaning people and people of goodwill for their countries seek a way out of this endless fracturing, the rural-urban divide, the society blind and morally neutral views of tech, and the starving of resources which benefit the broad segments of society for infrastructure, health and education through the misallocation of resources to other places. In the long run what is important is not the long theories which can fail, but to "Just Do," follow good common sense, do the right thing as Modi has done for women in essentials such as water, toilets, cooking gas, digital bank accounts, dignity, safety, access to education. And what Xi is attempting to do for Common Prosperity in China. And what Biden and Scholz are setting out to do in the US and Germany. ...

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Compare AI models for versions v2 v3 by DeepSeek that cost $5.6 million with Anthropic AI model that cost $100 million+, and one gets the order of magnitude in cost for the new DeepSeek China model vs its US counterparts.  The hundreds of billions of dollars that OpenAI and big spenders such as Google, Meta, and Microsoft would have to drain capital markets would be a disaster for workers and families in the US and the standard of living, the infrastructure improvements that don't get done, and the investments in transportation and other vital needs such as schools, education and healthcare that directly impact the cost of living and the standard of quality of life in America and other countries. This is where competing models from China, from India, and from European countries can get us back to where we want to be to continue improving the cost of living and standard of living, quality of life in America for workers and families. This is the choice workers and families made in 2020 and in 2025, rejecting the wasted resources in wars that serve no purpose, and rebuilding the Nation's infrastructure, its water, schools, transportation, healthcare, childcare.  ...

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The People's Bank of China says that it will track the value of the renminbi against a basket of currencies, not just the dollar as it has done previously. It did not say when this would happen. Experts say this shift would lead to a weakening of the currrency relative to the dollar. This follows the decision by the IMF to add the renminbi as one of the leading currencies with the dollar, pound, yen and euro.

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A major example of how the Ukraine war has pushed the financial situation to the brink in other parts of the world is Egypt. Egypt has borrowed $20 billion from the IMF and is turning to the IMF again. Egypt imports two thirds of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia and the war has sent prices of wheat soaring with shortages. This wheat is subsidized by the Egyptian government for decades as part of the social contract. In recent years foreign money entered the short term debt market, with the crisis some of these inflows have reversed. The Egyptian currency was devalued recently in response to financial crisis with significant part of earnings going to finance interest on loans. On June 24 the IMF approved a standby arrangement for Egypt. Because Egypt has borrowed $20 billion in 3 loans since 2016, and has now reached the limit allowed by its drawing rights Egypt has sought a cosponsor for additional borrowing. This comes through Saudi Arabia which deposited $5 billion in the Egyptian central bank recently. Saudis, Qatar and UAE have offered to invest in Egypt in a show of solidarity. Of this $10 billion were offered by Saudi public wealth fund and $5 billion by Qatar public wealth fund. In addition UAE plans to invest $2 billion by taking stakes in companies listed on the Egyptian stock exchange. ...

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PM Narendra Modi addressed a World Bank organized "Making it Personal: How behavioural change can tackle climate change" conference. Modi called it part of democratising the battle against climate change. "Simple acts in daily lives are powerful, there will be a very positive impact on the environment. The people of India have done a lot in this matter in the last few years." "People driven efforts improved the sex ratio in many parts of India. It was the people who led a massive cleanliness drive. Be it rivers, beaches or roads, they are ensuring public places are free of litter. And it was the people who made the switch to LED bulbs a success. Nearly 370 million LED bulbs have been sold in India. This helps in avoiding 39 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions every year." The Mission Life Modi introduced with the Secretary General of the United Nations has achieved much in India- "The farmers of India ensured the coverage of nearly seven hundred thousand hectares of farmland by micro-irrigation. Fulfilling the mantra of 'Per Drop More Crop', this has saved a huge amount of water. Under Mission Life our efforts are spread across many domains such as: Making local bodies environment-friendly, saving water, saving energy, reducing waste, and e-waste, adopting healthy lifestyles, adoption of natural farming, promotion of millets." ...

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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

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China's BYD started in electric batteries and expanded into electric cars. It has emerged as the dominant electric car company in the world as China now has half of the electric cars on the road in the world. 35% of exports of electric cars are from China. Keith Bradsher of NYT reports from Shenzen that its first car was made in 2007 of poor quality, similar to Toyota in the 1930's as it tried car manufacturing for the first time. It has surpassed Tesla in making electric cars. In each of the last 2 years it has increased electric car sales by one million to reach electric car sales on 3 million. EV sales in China were up in 2023 to 9.49 million cars giving BYD the largest share of 31%., by comparison US electric car sales were 1.2 million. New assembly lines are being built in Brazil, Hungary and Thailand. And new lines are planned for Mexico and Indonesia. This kind of growth was seen only by General Motors in 1946 after the end of the war. It also shows the progress China is making. In solar panels something like the addition of 900 million solar panels meeting the entire increase in electricity demand for each year, so that emissions targets can be met earlier than planned to tackle climate change.  The same changes are happening in electric cars. China now has 40% of electric cars or gasoline/electric plug in cars going up to 50%. For export China is building large carrier ships, the first that will take 5000 cars for export to the Netherlands. The lowest priced electric car model the Seagull was priced at $11,000. BYD's lowering of manufacturing costs have given it the ability to price the cars to attract new car buyers.  Wang Chuanfu who studied at Central Southern University in Changsha known for its battery research, was an engineer who started the company in the 1990's to make batteris for Motorola. Between 2003-2006 he experimented with making cars in the hope of making electric cars. Stalled efforts in 2009 and 2011 were met with arenewed effort in 2016 trying a new approach to cut costs by developing a battery where supplies of lithium or cobalt would not be a constraint. He developed a new battery using iron and phospate to replace lithium cobalt batteries. A big break came in 2020 with the Blade battery that increased range to the level of cobalt lithium batteries at a much smaller cost. BYD hired German Audi designers for new model design. This time BYD was in the right position to build a car company matching all others with costs lower by about 35% than VW for some models. This comes from- lower costs to make in China, making its own parts inside the company for 75% of parts compared to VW only about 35%, and by the savings from its battery research.  BYD has shown ability to shift with market needs and opportunities. In 2022 assisted driving was facing hurdles, BYD had second thoughts about the new technology, by 2023 as it was increasing in use BYD committed $14 billion in autonomous driving technology. Driving range is a problem for people in urban areas going back to their villages in China. BYD has an advantage here compared to Tesla- it makes hybrid plug ins that account for half its sales. Toyota has also had emphasis on hybrid plug ins where it missed the opportunity was that it moved very slowly on all electric cars not realizing how fast things were moving outside it's world. This is the situation America also faces in 2024 and beyond who can deliver on the infrastructure capabilities, new research ,and tap American potential to compete in this new world where one innovation will follow another. ...

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NYT's Thomas Edsall does a great service to America by pulling together different views on the causes of the alienation of the rural population in the US from the Democratic party. The situation in Wisconsin with Ron Johnson winning in that state on the back of resentment of the rural population is shown. It all started say experts with the the so called Third Way that turned out not to exist of Tony Blair in Britain and Bill Clinton in the US that quietly accepted the Reagan view of the world and moved the Democratic party in a different and unknown direction. Obama made things worse by embracing Tech and tech companies into the Democratic party, and ignored the concerns of rural and agricultural parts of the US. The Obama period continued the Clinton policies of letting China takeover America's position in manufacturing, and allowing the offshoring of much of American industry to China. By not closing the chapter of America's wars in Afghanistan and Iraq president Obama lost many critical years. Mr. Biden now has the extraordinary challenge of not meekly accepting what has happened knowing that it is not in the spirit of the party of FDR and Truman, that the Democratic party will stand or fall with the common man, that it will take some time to recover from these missteps, that it is in the interests of America and the American people, and for what America stands for in the world. It is all embodied in what Carl Sandburg once wrote- "The People, Yes!" ...

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The title says it all from BBC China Correspondent Laura Bicker. China is listening even as it is presenting itself as a nation that is putting up with an unfair tariffs war started by DJT. It has delayed tariffs till Feb 10 says this report and put tariffs on items which Europe needs from the US such as LNG and coal which China can get from Australia, saying that it wants to come to an agreement. My Fellow Americans, Canada, Mexico and China are putting themselves as aggrieved parties when there are two issues here one about fentanyl flows where none of the three nations have taken the needed action to stop all flows and control borders. The reader will find that much of the media titles blame the US for starting a tariffs war are misleading such as one in The Guardian-"In this era of Trump shakedowns everything has a price."  Or even in a Business friendly WSJ site- "The World has Changed since Trump's First Trade War. Other Countries are Ready to Fight Back." Or in Times of London sensational "World Watches as Trade War looms between China and the US," when US demand for effective action on borders and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico and China has little to do with trade. In fact it is incomprehensible that these three nations as neighbors and trade partners of the US have waited this long to act on fentanyl flows and controlling their border with the US.   ...

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The important thing is doing the right thing- building America, building jobs and wages for average Americans. All Americans. Dionne writes in The Washington Post that Biden investments  in renewable energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing, are promoting growth in all parts of the country, many of them rural, Republican leaning, that have experienced decades of neglect. And others once part of the 50's and 60's Truman Kennedy period Democrat leaning- parts of the northeast, the midwest that had suffered badly from outsourcing and sending of jobs to China. A rising tide lifts all boats, in the words of John Kennedy, and Biden tells a Philadelphia rally of union workers that looking back 10 years from now it would be seen that this is when it all started.

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Jeremy Corbyn is elected by a landslide in a vote of party members to the leadership of Britain's Labor Party. Like Bernie Sanders in the U.S. Corbyn started out as a fringe candidate, but his campaign gained momentum as he barnstormed the country this summer and was able to draw large enthusiastic crowds. Corbyn has represented the Islington North constituency of London in Britain's parliament since 1983. Corbyn opposes the austerity policies of the Conservative Cameron government and military adventurism. He proposes what he calls "a people's quantitative easing" which would finance new investments in infrastructure, large scale housing, energy, transport and digital projects. He has apologized to students about the restoration of fees for education and loans replacing grants in universities, and would scrap tution fees, restore student maintenance grants, introduce universal childcare, support adult learning.The Bank of England would print money to support a national investment bank to provide the funding. Other funding would come from reducing corporate tax loopholes, and cutting into 20 billion British pounds of tax avoidance and 80 billion pounds in tax evasion. He favors immigration, and staying in the EU, opposes NATO membership on grounds that it has expanded too far to the borders of Russia....

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Shinzo Abe had a vision of a broader Asia. In Abe's own words- " A broader Asia that broke away from geographical boundaries is now beginning to take on a distinct form. Our two countries have the ability - and the responsibility - to ensure that it broadens yet further and to nurture and enrich these seas to become seas of clearest transparence." He added "By coming together in this way, this 'broader Asia' will evolve into an immense network that will span the entirety of the Pacific Ocean, incorporating the United States of America and Australia. Open and transparent, this network will allow people and goods, capital and knowledge to flow freely." It is this vision that is taking shape today in 2022. And India's unique role in Asia was grasped by Abe. Abe reminded Japanese and Indians of the unique contribution of Vivekananda, calling him a great spiritual leader India gave to the world, and stretching back to many others way back in time to Bodhidharma, and then way back from that to one whose name all know.  During one of these visits to India Abe said- "Vivekananda came to be acquainted with Tenshin Okakura, a man ahead of his time in early modern Japan and a Renaissance man, Okakura was then guided by Vivekananda and also enjoyed a friendship with Sister Nivedita, Vivekananda's loyal disciple and a distinguished female social reformer. Many people are aware of all that." Praising India's spirit of tolerance Abe said- "From the reign of Ashoka the Great to Mahatma Gandhi's Satyagraha movement of non violent resistance the Japanese people are well aware of the unbroken spirit of tolerance in Indian spiritual history." Vedanta and Buddhism went from India through Bodhidharma to China and then from China to Japan with Dogen and other spiritual leaders from Japan bringing it from China then called the Pure Land in the 13th century. Vedanta and Buddhism now finds it way centuries later from India to Japan- from where it moves onwards to China and East Asia. ...

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The last West Indies captain to lead a formidable West Indies team was Richie RIchardson. Sandip G of the Indian Express writes from Antigua about Richardson's early batting experiences at school and how he evolved facing fast bowlers. RIchardson started out idolizing legendary batsmen like Rohan Kanhai who were steady batsmen and batted in Test matches for days.    It was an early experience with his coach who put on fast bowlers at school to Richardson at bat, that got Richardson started on his trademark cut shot. Fearing for his life Richardson closed his eyes and hit one out of the field that was lost forever. Soon he became known as "the fastest blade in the Caribbean," for the way he could strike at fast bowling. Richardson says its not like he became good at the cut stroke overnight. He would practice the shot 1000 times a day.  It was Rohan Kanhai from Guyana who once said that you have to put every poor delivery away to the boundary and some good ones too, making the bowlers think. Flashing blade and canny, were words used for Kanhai. This was true for Richardson too with his cut shot. Today as he is perfecting his golf game or when his motivation dips he has only to look back over his shoulder to the high walls of his house, to his backyard where he practiced the cut shot, and all that drive and energy from that time would come back to him. ...

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Eliud Kipchoge is one of the rare runners from Africa for his outlook on life. He is from Kenya, and holds the world record for running the Marathon. At the Berlin Marathon he set a record of just over 2 hours, with an improvement of 78 minutes the biggest in 50 years.  How does he do it? He wears a wrist band that says "No human is limited." He believes it is in the power of the mid to do what it sets out to do and what it believes. As he trains in the Kenyan highlands his idea of life is living simply which "sets you free." There at training camp he shares in the chores, including cleaning toilets, and always maintains the discipline that is part of his daily routine. Being disciplined is about not just the two hours running but the other 22 hours as well. A simple life means no distracted mind. Says Kipchoge: "My mind is always free. My mind is flexible. The mind is what drives a human being. If you have belief-pure belief in your heart- that you want to be successful you can talk to your mind and your mind will control you to be successful." This 34 year old Kenyan runner won the 5000 metres at the World Championships in Paris in 2003, won silver in Osaka in 2007, but failed to make the 2012 Kenyan Olympics team. He then switched to marathon running and won ten marathons, three in London. As part of the NikeBreaking2 project Eliud is taking on the challenge of running a marathon under 2 hours, 63 years after Roger Bannister set the 4 minute mile record. ELiud believes there are still beautiful things in store, some cool things to do. And his dream is to build a running world that brings joy and peace - "There is freedom in running. Go and run and your your mind will be free."    ...

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The NYT editorial questions the wisdom of letting the banks like JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs repay money to the government to avoid the executive compensation and other government restrictions. THe NYT says it fears that things may unwind, and the banks face more losses on commercial real estate and the effects of rising unemployment would affect economic conditions and the banks balance sheets adversely. The government bailout money was one of several supports that were provided to the banks, and this includes favorable loans fromthe Fed, debt guarantees and incentive payments for modifying mortgages. The whole exercize appears a bit phony as without those supports these repayments would not have been possible. The pay restrictions were a result of excessive compensation that incentified risk taking. The Obama administration's credit reform, says the NYT was an apparent trade-off for the administration's hands off approach to a larger proposed reform that would have allowed bankruptcy judges to help homeowners facing foreclosure. The heavy lobbying by the banks which continues and may not be in the best interests of the country as a whole, and the administration's willingness to let it affect decisionmaking and policy, is an unhealthy sign. ...

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The Guardian gives this story of Khamanei's rule in Iran after 1989. He was made president in 1981 in a landslide win at that time just 2 years after the revolution in 1979 that toppled the Shah of Iran's monarchial regime. Khamanei comes from a the family of a modest cleric in the town of Mashaad who was immersed in the anticolonial writings coming out of Arab North Africa's liberation movements. His policy towards Israel and the US, difficult relations with Arab countries in the neighborhood, and pursuit of nuclear weapons technologies, led Iran to become isolated and face sanctions that hurt its economy and its oil industry for three decades. It created its own version of governing and in setting up proxy militias but this resulted in huge investments diverted from the economy of Iran, neglect of its oil industry and production under western sanctions, that led to economy collapsing and student protests every decade. This expanded in 2025 to broad sections of the population calling for a new direction. Protests were suppressed leading to a disconnect with the people by 2026. To truly understand Iran one has to step back to the 1900's ( as one must also do to understand China or India), as Iran was ruled by the Qajar dynasty at the time. The first Majlis parliament was set up in Iran in 1906 -with the help of "good" Britishers like the British agent in Rajkot who helped send Gandhi to London to study law- wished to see a constitutional setup similar to Britain and limit the powers of the monarchy so that reforms in agriculture and in the civil service could be made. It lasted until 1908. At the time other Britishers in the British Empire both in India and in London sought to maintain British influence and keep out Russian influence. It was not a coincidence that the Majlis lasted only till 1908. That year in 1908 the first discovery of oil in West Asia was made in Khozestan province by George Reynolds, with investor backing of William D'Arcy. The following year 1909 the Anglo-Persian Oil Company( later Anglo Iranian Oil Company and later British Petroleum) was formed. The oil concession was given by the Shah from Qajar dynasty. From that time on Iran became the scene of oil company interests, monarchial interests first under Qajar dynaasty and then under Pahlavis dynasty (which set itself up like Napoleon II in France from humble origins, after 1925 to replace the Qajar dynasty), and the emerging middle class lawyer and civil service, agricultural landowners class, all competing for power and influence in a Asian region with Shihite Islamic embedded in the fabric of the society. Power swung to different groups from 1925 onwards for 5 decades to the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Pahlavi temporary replacement monarchy that worked with British oil interests. West Asia became a meeting point for anticolonial writings emerging from Arab North Africa and other places that took the form of and led to a socialist style anticolonial Baathist influnce that overthrew a monarchy in Baghdad Iraq in the "Free Officers" coup of June 14, 1958 led by Karim Kassem. Out of that Pan Arabic Iraqi mood emerged S. Hussein who with weapons systems imported from the US and Europe initiated the war with Iran in 1980. The Iranian counterrevolutionary movement to Iraq began from that time with the leadership of Khomeni and Khameni from 1981. This is what one has seen swing back and forth in the West Asian region for about 5 decades to 2026, the regional Arab states mostly Sunni monarchies ranged against Iran with its Shiite and also modernizing population. US oil interests in Arab monarchies of the West Asian region from the time of FDR's meeting with Saudi's Faisal in the WWII period clashed with Iranian public interests competing with oil interests (US and British) allied to monarchial interests, and the emergence of Shiite Islamic authority in Iran in these clashes. Iranian public interests that started out with the Majlis and parliaments set up by the "good Britishers" never got a chance in Iran just as the modernizing effort of Sun Yat Sen in China in the 1900's never got a chance in the middle of the surviving monarchy in China by 1910, and the Japanese colonial interests in China from that time competing with the Nationalists Koumintang and the Communist Chinese workers movements emerging in the 1930's, all competing for influence during the Chinese civil war and in its aftermath the emergence of Mao and the CCP of China. This is the situation we in the world face today. ...

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The New York Times editorial page on the day following the passage of the second bailout or rescue plan of $700 billion in the Senate after it was voted down in the House of Representatives. It points out that the bailout bill does little to prevent a wave of foreclosures which the NYT estimates at six million people expected to default in the rest of this year and 2009. It faults lenders unwillingness to reduce the loan balances amount. At a Congressional hearing for the Hope for Homeowners program in which the governmet wold insure upto $300 bilonin new affordable loans for troubled borrowers if the lenders voluntarily refinance delinquent mortgages by reducing loan balances to 90% of the homes' current market value, lending banks were lukewarm about taking these losses in exchange for bigger losses in foreclosures. These lenders include Wels Fargo, Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup. The FDIC's Sheila Barr has also advocated reducing loan balances in her proposal for tackling the housing crisis presented after the Bear Stearns crisis. She is taking this approach to banks that like IndyMac were taken over by FDIC. But the numbers are not large letters were sent to 28,000 delinquent borrowers of IndyMac recently to reduce loan balances. This is a serious problem and either Congress and Treasury are leaving this problem to the next administration taking office 3 months from now as there is no real consensus on this issue even today or they are missing the impact this has in dropping home price values even further in neigborhoods across the nation as foreclosures drive prices down even further compounding the problem. For the financial institutions it would appear that they are letting this drag out because their capital is at frighteningly low levels and taking losses at one time is harder than taking the foreclosure losses dragged out over 1-3 years and they are also looking for a way in which they can let the government bear the burden of losses as the crisis intensifies which can make sense from the point of view of each institution. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal on September 29, 2008, Sheila Barr told Congress this month that in recent years troubled loan portfolios have yielded about 32% of book value, compared with more than 87% for loans in which the borrower is current. These are strong statistics in favor of lenders taking an informed decision to lower loan balances voluntarily with some government help along the way but the fact that this is not happening leads one to think that something is falling between the cracks, initial lender reluctance to take losses through voluntary balance reduction at the time of Bear Stearns crisis given taxpayer reluctance and lack of government initiative to help lenders in doing this, sort of what Martin Feldstein suggested in a series of articles during the time before and after the Bear Steans crisis. And then as the credit crisis worsened with collapse of Lehman, WaMu, Freddie, Fannie and Wachovia in September 2008 fear gripping the markets and LIBOR interbank lending rate at close to 8%, banks gripped by the fear prevailing in the market, frozen practically about any steps other than preserving their hammered capital, and reluctant to take losses which would further impair their capital. Also in the WSJ Sept 8, on help for homeowners, Deutsche Bank estimates 40% of homeowners or about 20 million households will owe more than their home is worth by the time the housing market stabilizes. This will lead to some homeowners making the rational decision as Martin Feldstein argued to walk away from their homes, leading to more foreclosure losses for th banks. This article Rescue Includes Steps to Help Borrowers Keep Homes by Ruth Simon also has some information that confirms the NYT editorial. An analysis it says of 144 mortgage modifications by the Massachusetts Attorney General's office found that none reduced mortgage balances and onoly a handful reduced monthly payments. Even with interest rate reductions, the study showed borrrowers wound up paying more because of missed paymmets penalties and fees. Another study by Credit Suisse mentioned in the same article points out that the percentage of borrowers who were behind 6 months after loan modifications dropped to 17% when lenders reduced the loan balances and 13% when mortgage companies froze the interest rate of adjustable rate mortgages. A bigger problem is the effect on consumption, if 40% of homeowners end up owing more to the bank than their home is worth as Deutsche Bank estimates, combined with higher unemployment and higher parttime employment, by the time things stabilize. And this is the big looming problem for a new administration in January even if the bailout plan passes Congress this week after revisions and eases the crisis in the credit markets. ...

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Argentina's new president takes over a failing economy in 2019. Mr. Fernandez declared a public emergency until 2020. A legislative package recently passed includes tax increases on the wealthy, tax relief for the poorest, a 30% tax on foreign currency transactions abroad, and a currency cap of $200 per person per month imposed by the previous Macri administration.  About 70% of new revenues will go to social programs, including free food vouchers for two million of the poorest Argentines. About 40% of the people in Argentina are in poverty, according to the World Bank, a shocking figure for a country that should be doing better given its natural resources and agricultural resources. The economy is suffering from hyper inflation at over 50%, jumping external debt at 90% of GDP. Total debt is $332 billion including a $57 billion IMF loan. About half the total debt is in foreign currency and is hard to service now that foreign currency reserves have fallen from $66 billion to $43.5 billion. The debt restructuring strategy now is to delay as much of the $70 billion of repayments due before the end of 2020.  ...

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As the American banks were better capitalized before the global financial crisis than the European banks, and they were recapitalized with taxpayer money during the crisis, the Europeans and the French in particular feel that they have alot of catching up to do. Geithner at U.S. Treasury is pushing for higher capital requirements for the banks, with agreement by the end of 2010 and implementation by 2012. The way these new rules work the Europeans feel would put their banks at a disadvantage, because their banks would have to raise more capital and constrain their ability to provide credit to their local economies. Capital requirements for banks were part of the previous arrangement called Basel II, which covered USA and European banks. Basel II capital requirements rules measured capital compared to assets weighted on the basis of how much risk they carried, but this relied on credit rating firms which were discredited in the crisis. On the subject of bonuses the large banks are trying to influence the discussions. As a result the Financial Stability Board, an international advisory committee of financial regulators is going to make its own recommendations....

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Paid Leave for caregivers, parents, is a missing part of America's progress into a society that cares for women, children and elderly parents. America is the only nation among developed countries that lacks paid leave. Biden's Families and Workers Plan was designed to make this part of the fabric of American society. The 12 weeks paid leave originally planned is particularly needed for caregivers, mostly women, and is now down to 4 weeks. It was then taken out on the resistance of 1 senator from West Virginia out of 50 Democratic party senators. Women are hard hit during the pandemic and are unable to get back into the work force. Most Republicans if in the shoes of women as caregivers, or mothers needing maternity leave for children, would support this essential feature of a modern or well developed society, yet this is often missing as the nation is divided because about a third of Americans have paid leave and the rest lack paid leave. This piece of the bill for paid leave is now back in the bill in Congress, in another effort to get this through. ...

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The Dutch parliament approves a free trade area with Ukraine. Netherlands was the last country to approve this agreement. Populists of eusoskeptic views won a referendum in April 2016 leading to the agreement passed by the other 27 countries of the EU being modified to accomodate the euroskeptics- who pushed the view of Ukraine as another corrupt country that Netherlands tax payers would have to support. The agreement for a free trade area for EU and Ukraine itself was a result of the popular sentiment in Kiev and western Ukraine in favor of closer ties to the European Union, that led to protests in 2013-2014 and the election of pro-EU Petroshenko as president. Russia opposed the move, leading to the support of a Russia rebel movement in the eastern part of Ukraine. The Dutch elections of 2017 led to Dutch voters supporting prime minister Rutte's effort to support the European Union in helping Ukraine with economic ties. This puts Netherlands back into the core EU nations such as France, Germany, Spain and Italy, that back Ukraine and oppose Russian moves. ...

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In some countries such as Tanzania and Chad the vaccination drives have not even begun says this report in the DW.com. A new surge now underway in Africa as cases increase by 30% in June comes at abad time with African vaccination drives stalled. Only 31 million doses adminstered in Africa for a population of 1 billion people. Less than 1% of world vaccine supplies are going to poor countries in Africa and Latin America.

Vaccine companies chose to sell their vaccines to the highest bidders, putting Covax  behind. Aims of Covax are also coming down and watered down to vaccinating 20% or 30% of the population in poor countries, says this report in DW.com.

This means new variants could develop and move back to Asia and Europe, the US in 2022. It means the coronavirus could affect African economies in 2022 and beyond.