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Israel informed the US 6 hours before military target strikes on Iran. This followed 180 ballistic missiles launched by Iran against Israel. This report says Israel has followed president Biden's advice not to strike oil targets. Biden said if I were the Israelis I would not strike oil targets. 

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This exceptional report by Chulov in the Guardian shows the changes in the war in Iraq and Syria in 2015-2016 since the downing of a Russian jet by Turkey in late 2015. It says that the Syrian government's future was uncertain in late 2015 with Turkish support for rebel forces in the north. During this period Russia curtailed trade and tourism relations with Turkey, and improved relations with the Kurds. Russia intervened in northern Syria directly to prevent a collapse of Syrian government forces in the north. Kurdish forces were already controlling large parts of the Syrian territory adjoining Turkey, and Turkey was concerned about the support to Kurds within Turkey from Kurds in Syria and a historical movement for  Kurdish independence. In April 2016 Russia made a move to win Turkish support by saying it would support the territorial integrity of Syria, so that no support would be given to the Kurds. As the U.S. consistently supported the Kurds in the fight against ISIS, Turkey under prime minister Erdogan changed its policy of support for rebel forces in Syria to focus on what it perceived as the threat fom Kudish control of the region at its Syrian borders. Rebel forces were told to focus not on the Syrian government forces but on ISIS, leading to withdrawal of support in Aleppo. What remains now of the war in Syria and Iraq is Iranian influence in Iraq, the Russian influence from support of the Syrian government in Damascus, and for the first time U.S. ground forces in the north with 900 troops supported by artillery on the side of the Kurds. The next stage in the war to take ISIS controlled Raqqa is being negotiated between Russia, Turkey and the U.S., according to this report.  ...

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Israeli strikes in response to a Iranian ballistic missile attack were expected. Yet the Israeli attack was done by informing the US and by Israel exercizing restraint that Biden had asked for, says this BBC report.

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A look at the daily life of ordinary Iranians closeup by the NYT's Kristof in Iran. A picture different from that presented about Iran in the daily media about ayatollahs and nuclear weapons.

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Rockets fired by Iran close to the U.S. aircraft carrier U.S.S. Truman in December 2015 could lead to a shift in sentiment in the U.S. following the nuclear deal with Iran in 2015 by the Obama administration. Ballistic missile testing was one of the issues in the negotiations leading up to the nuclear deal with serious differences between Congress and the Obama adminsitration on the issue. Recent ballistic missile tests by Iran may reinforce differences on this issue.

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Steven Mufson reports in the Washington Post that oil exports from Iran will only gradually increase by 400,000 barrels a day in the next 6 months, because Iran does not want to depress prices further than $30 a barrel. Foreign investment in Iran is also likely to improve gradually because of the remaining sanctions and the slowly improving economy.

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G7 Finance Ministers plan to release 300 million barrels of oil (2 weeks worth of Straits of Hormuz lost oil production ) to keep oil prices in check. Oil Prices reach $101 a barrel after 1 week of the US Israel war with Iran. Oil going through Straits of Hormuz are 20 million barrels a day, if 300 million barrels are released that would cover another 15 days of the war. By that time safety has to be reestablished, and additional production brought from Venezuela, from Russia for use by India, so that maybe 50% of the 20 million barrels can be produced from other locations in the world to make up for the loss. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency says-  "In addition to the challenges of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a substantial amount of oil production has been curtailed. This is creating significant and growing risks for the market. "IEA member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation."       ...

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Impact of $100-$138 a barrel oil prices from Iran War on US economy is modest - stable unemployment inflation at 2.9% instead of 2.7% and decline by 4 tenths of a percentage point in GDP growth. This is the view of 50 economists at banks, companies and research consulting gorups surveyed by WSJ March 16-18 cited in both the WSJ and her inthe NYT. NYT says unless the prices reach $200 which is unlikely, there won't be a recession. The reason is that the US is self sufficient in oil needs and exports oil and gas to Europe, and now to India and Japan. In fact in the domestic economy oil producing states in the Permian Basin including Texas, Wyoming, New Mexico and state of Alaska will actually see more growth. US will also generate more revenue from oil exports. US will also be able to leverage the situation to bring Venezuelan production with additional investments in upgrading the Venezuelan oil fields from American oil companies. This will be more attractive at higher oil prices and revenue generated will be sent to benefit the Venezuelan people. What it does affect lis ow income people with long commutes to work in the US. ...

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In Asia hardest hit are India for LPG gas used for cooking by most people in a country of 1.4 billion people. Australia is hardest hit for oil and gas with only a 32 day supply and Vietnam. Australia, Vietnam, Japan all three getting 90% of their oil supplies from the Middle East, an untenable situation. These three need to diversify out of the Middle East for their oil supplies. India has the option (now supported by the USA in a 180 degree U turn during the Iran War) of getting supplies from Russia for oil and gas with its good relationship with Russia. Japan has managed Middle East supply by keeping over 254 days of inventory but this looks to be very risky as Germany learned from its dependence on Russian oil which went in the wrong direction under Merkel. Japan has released about 18% of its total reserve amount of the 254 days inventory (146 days in national reserves and 101 days in private mandated reserves). It uses 3.14 million barrels a day in 2026 down from 5.8 million barrels a day in 1996, using about half today through conservation and using renewable energy showing the potential for the US and Europe. ...

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Three BBC correspondents on China's 2026 National People's Congress - effort to invest in childcare and elder care services to increase consumer spending. To continue in solar, robotics, AI, EV's, and exports as before. The problems of industrial overcapacity and pushing subsidized product into the US or EU that cause trade tensions and tariffs will continue.  New 301 investigations by US Trade Representative are taking place and will complete by mid-July. Germany's chancellor was in Beijing making a similar point about industrial overcapacity and German business is now facing the same threats to their business that the US has gone through. The one other way for China to grow is to increase consumer spending- hence the effort to help young people with childcare costs and retired people with elder care. The payments to seniors is low says the BBC's McDonnell who says the increase in payment to rural and non-working urban residents of $3 per month is miniscule. No details given for housing support to newly married couples. On one aspect relevant to the Iran war-China is increasing its efforts on renewable energy to reduce imports from volatile Middle East. ...

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China’s 15th Five-Year Plan recommendations set out China’s energy and climate priorities - from the Sino-German Cooperation on Climate Change. It says in its Conclusion as it relates to China's Energy Initiative working with German cooperation. It shows China is committed to cutting its reliance on fossil fuels from the Middle East particularly now with the situation in the Iran War and cutoff of such supplies. It is a broad comprehensive approach to industry, business and society's needs and how to best make the transition to low carbon emissions and renewable energy similar to what Germany is accomplishing on its own. "In essence, the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan point to three main priorities: further expanding renewable energy and modernising the power system to reduce reliance on fossil fuels; shifting policy focus from controlling energy use to directly controlling carbon emissions, including plans to peak coal and oil consumption and expand carbon markets; and integrating climate and low-carbon goals across industry, finance and consumer policies, making green development a central pillar of China’s long-term economic strategy." ...