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Both the Tories in Britain and the Democrats in the US were caught by surprise by the sudden surge after the pandemic of illegal migrations flows in 2023-2024 which dropped to all time lows in 2019-2021 with the covid lockdowns. Tories with factional infighting and Democrats falsely believing they were virtuous humane could not take effective decisive immediate action costing them the defeats in 2024. The size of the illegal migration problem to the UK was underestimated in 2023. Tory rhetoric alone failed to convince the British public. In the US Biden not confronting it head on also failed to reassure the American people as the US Border also meant destructive Mexico/China fentanyl flows. Even today the action proposed falls short and new US bipartisan legislation is needed to make it the law of the land, closing three decades of stealth in immigration policies. ONS now estimates that it missed 166,000 people. The real figure for the year ending June 2023 for net migration was 906,000 not 748,000 as previously estimated. In the year ending June 2024 this figure for net migration was 728,000. Labour party under Keir Starmer made setting up the new structures for tackling alarming rise in migration the top priority in 2024. That lesson was not learned in the US and the issue not confronted head on to win public confidence- the Biden support for Republican Senator Lankford's legislation on illegal migrants and the border came late in 2023 and the issue was left to fester for 2 years eroding public confidence. In the US the issue of illegal fentanyl flows at the US Border and from China makes the Border and China relations issues that required effective and immediate action overriding everything else. In the end Tories confusion and internal factions, other controversies, led to lack of vigilance and lack of effective action as net migration deceptively hit lows of 254,000, 111,000, and 254,000 in the pandemic years 2019, 2020, and 2021, only to surge tremendously to 634,000 and 906,00 in the years 2022 and 2023.  Labour's Starmer took action to make it No. 1 priority in the platform going into the 2024 election winning public confidence. A similar surge in migration happened in the US after a deceptive slowdown in the pandemic, compunded by Venezuela and central American states collapsing. ...

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GM is willing to sell amajority stake in Opel to the German government. Opel employees want to see that happen, as they say GM never understood Opel's potential. The unions favor this with IG Metall saying about 400,000 jobs will be affected in the car and related businesses with an Opel collapse. And directly at Opel in Russelsheim near Frankfurt the plants employ 29,000 German workers. This is now a big issue in Germany. The bailout of German banks is as unpopular in Germany as it is with Americans, with their own bailout of banks and financial institutions. And Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats are seeing polls showing voters shifting allegiance to the Free Democrats, which reflects opinion of people in smaller independent businesses unhappy with the bank bailouts.

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Armin Laschet is an affable journalist from Aachen, Germany. He is premier in North Rhine Westphalia in a coalition with the FDP. He is seen as a likable person who can win over others. Support from the Greens or the FDP in a future coalition is seen as one way to form a government. He was part of the Pizza Connection, a group of Christian Democrats and Greens who met in the wine cellar of an Italian restaurant in Bonn, to pull together people in areas that they agree. He has the dual qualities of being on Merkel's side in the crises she faced and also having a nuanced approach to tough issues to bring together different people.

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The fiscal 2016 U.S. budget of president Obama proposes government spending at 7% or $74 billion above the caps set in a bipartisan deficit reduction deal reached in 2011. It proposes $561 billion in defense spending with an increase of $38 billion, and $530 billion in non defense spending with an increase of $37 billion. Across the board cuts known as the sequester were set in 2013 following a 2011 bipartisan budget deal plan to take $2 trillion out of the federal budget deficit over 10 years. Spending caps were set at the time and a supercommitte was setup to look for ways to trim $1.2 trillion from the federal budget. With the failure of the supercommittee the sequester went into effect until Sen. Murray (Democrat) and Sen Paul Ryan (Republican ) agreed to ease cuts through fiscal year 2015 ending in September. The Democratic president's effort is to remove the caps in 2016 to invest more in infrastructure, medical research, other strategic priorities and defense.

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The important thing is doing the right thing- building America, building jobs and wages for average Americans. All Americans. Dionne writes in The Washington Post that Biden investments  in renewable energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing, are promoting growth in all parts of the country, many of them rural, Republican leaning, that have experienced decades of neglect. And others once part of the 50's and 60's Truman Kennedy period Democrat leaning- parts of the northeast, the midwest that had suffered badly from outsourcing and sending of jobs to China. A rising tide lifts all boats, in the words of John Kennedy, and Biden tells a Philadelphia rally of union workers that looking back 10 years from now it would be seen that this is when it all started.

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Instead of killing the NAFTA trade agreement Trump and his advisors prefer renegotiating the treaty. Priorities for the Trump administration are reducing the U.S. deficit with Mexico of $61 billion. Trade with Mexico and Canada is worth $1.1 trillion and the complex supply chains works such that product components cross borders more than once to become finished products. Mexico promotes its auto and other industries as duty free access to the U.S. for foreign investment. Special tariffs would reduce the trade deficit with Mexico and firms that moved production to Mexico would pay additional taxes. A provision that allows Mexican and Canadian companies to challenge U.S. regulations would also be removed. Rep. Brad Sherman (Democrat) says he supports the renegotiation so that duties of 4% are imposed to reduce the deficit to $25 billion.

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John Fetterman Democrat of Pennsylvania has maintained a friendship with Katie Britt, Republican freshman from Alabama, and even turned up in Congress to show Britt's son around the House and Senate buildings. It shows how some senators in the US Congress are taking stances independent of their parties different factions and staying true to their authentic selves about what they see as right. For example Fetterman and Britt are introducing legislation requiring children to be 13 years of age to use social media platforms. Texas Senator Cornyn and other Republicans are at ease talking to John Fetterman. It is the kind of bipartisanship that is emerging in 2024 in the US. Fetterman says he is behind president Biden and is campaigning in 7 states calling Biden "a decent, good guy," and a tough guy.

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Counting only people who voted in 2020 Biden is ahead 2 percentage points. 2024 Biden campaign is complicated by irregular and disengaged voters. Will disengaged mostly younger voters stay home or will they vote? What will happen with the churn- how many of the irregular voters from the last election will turn out and how many stay home. Many are Democrat leaning and as the election campaign progresses they may become more aware and vote but this is by no means certain. Many are younger voters or minority voters who are disengaged and do not follow what is happening. The economy not abortion or the border is important to these voters. President Biden has secured the vote of only 75% of these voters and has to find ways to reach them all. 

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The huge task of getting across policies to voters in the US who have been left out either through the presence of social media distracting attention or the busy lives of voters keeping them less informed as they struggle to get by. The message on the White House Biden and Harris site does not get through to these voters. The television and newspapers have only now gone into the policies Harris has announced at Wake Tech community college in Raleigh, North Carolina. This reaches a Democrat audience but what about it reaching the voters who are unaware in rural areas, of North Carolina and the rest of the 51states, in other areas and parts of the country where it is still fuzzy fuzzy with misinformation or counter advertising muddying up the clear picture of Harris policies. 

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Most of Kennedy's supporters who were Democrat leaning have gone back to the Democratic party and Harris. Only the ones remaining are likely to support Trump. Some of them are vaccine sceptics, the one issue on which Kennedy initially opposed Biden as he was against the vaccination campaign that Biden implemented to get America back on to recovery and on its feet again. The former president Trump also made light of the vaccination campaign and in doing so weakened the response to the Covid pandemic that destroyed 1 million American families. Only the vaccination campaign with full government support and educational effort on the importance of getting vaccinated made it possible for America to recover by 2021.  Hear this America- more lives could have been lost, million more without an effective vaccination campaign.

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Over half of all Americans don't care about age, and many voters see it as benefitting the country because of the experience. In Biden's case the longest serving Senate record in the US means getting things done. It all depends on the choice voters have. With Trump 78 years old as Election Day approaches, and Biden 81 years, the difference between the two becomes slight- result a wash. If Mr. Trump brings it up as "sleepy Joe" as he did in 2020 it may sound as old hat. A polling research firm Navigator showed Mr. Biden to a group and found 35% approval on the grounds of age, after being shown the State of the Union address with a feisty Biden energized to take on the Republicans the approval jumped to 55% on age alone. Other experts point to the deciding factor being not age but accomplishment. It is true for all Democrats and for the significant voting group of Independents and Moderates. Biden's list of accomplishments in making trillions of dollars of investments in the US trump all other concerns.  ...

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This WSJ Editorial Board article says Ron DeSantis has strong support in Florida with his 19 percentage point margin win in Florida. As a national candidate he is seen as conservative with a ban on 6 week abortion and cultural stands on a number of issues, and a sense that there is what it calls "cultural brawling." His position on Ukraine as simply "a territorial dispute" is questioned. This gives Mr. Trump an opportunity to show DeSantis is too conservative, says the WSJ. Mr. DeSantis 44 years, is praised for the way he handled the pandemic by opening up schools earlier than New York and other states, and opening up the economy. Yet he is seen as lacking a larger vision on how the country can build a stronger economy, and reduce social divisions, for American Renewal.  WSJ's views on Biden are that he leans too much towards Progressive Democrats. And on Trump that he is stuck with the idea of national retribution leading to 4 more years of trench warfare that it finds unacceptable. ...

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US aid to Ukraine shifts to the long term. Republicans ask the president and Democrats to leave Ukraine aid on a stand alone basis and not mixed with other health or budget requests where there are differences. Republicans want to move quickly on aid to Ukraine as the invasion on the east of Ukraine builds up. In comments earlier this week Mr. Biden told a national audience in a televised speech that he wants to make Ukraine aid to be ongoing as this could be a long effort to resist the Russian invasion. Ramstein now has a new symbolism - US Joint Chiefs head Gen. Mark Milley was clear about it- "The outcome of this battle, right here today, depends on the people in this room." The battle is one in eastern Ukraine. Defense Secretary Austin was clear about also clear- "the war had galvanized the world." About 40 countries were represented at Ramstein base, some virtually. There was a sense that the previous symbolism with Anglela Merkel and Mr. Steinmeier and Mr. Schroeder may have emboldened Russia into invasion of Ukraine. ...

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This report in the NYT says a little known donation raising method used by the Republican National Senatorial Committee may affect Republican chances of taking control of the Senate in the US. The method is considered part of hyper aggressive methods that ask people provocative questions such as "Should Biden resign?" in millions of text messages sent out and asked to reply click YES to Donate, the amount is then processed immediately, says NYT. It was so controversial that WinRed the main Republican donation processing platform banned the practice. It appeared to be working earlier but with the cost of living crisis in 2022 donors are holding back. NYT says the digital ads to get these donations cost more than the donations in some situations. It cost $23.3 million for digital ads and expenses and raised only $6.1 million leading to a $17 million deficit, according to NYT. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell now thinks it could affect chances for the Senate. The NSRC Republican group has $23 million about half what the Democrats have. ...

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This WSJ editorial sees president Biden's speech at Independence Hall in Philadelphia as intended to give the Democrats the advantage in the midterm elections for Congress. It says Vice President Pence and other Republicans opposed Mr. Trump when he claimed he had won the election. Seen from outside the US in Europe, and Asia, other parts of the world there was a real sense that democracy was facing a critical time in the US. Mr. Biden's speech about the struggle for the soul of America is very real considering that the Republican party is today for the most part pro-Trump and lessons learned from the traumatic experience of 2020 are sometimes set aside. There were real issues with the future of democracy during the transfer of power to Mr. Biden in 2020, and the future of America's leadership in the world as the place where the Declaration of Independence inspires the whole world for 200 years, which cannot be ignored and will always be remembered, as much in America as in the world to which offers hope and acts as a beacon. ...

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Fei Fei Lee and John Etchemendy co-founders of Stanford Univeristy's Institute for Human-centred Artificial Intelligence the public sector needs to lead AI development.  Acceptance and advocacy by the people at Stanford University that AI is too important to be left to the private sector. That like space exploration conducted by NASA and the Hoover Dam and Tennessee Valley Authority during the Depression, the Erie Canal in the mid nineteenth century, some work is better done by the public sector. For this to happen Stanford needs to accept its position as one of the many great educational and cultural institutions of this country not what Silicon Valley and the Reagan era hand it to being its preeminent beneficiary and representative. This marks a change at Stanford after thinking long and hard about the dangers to America that have emerged from the Reagan era thought that took in its fold Democrats like Clinton and Obama- the 2009 financial crisis fueled by deregulation and defunding of infrastructure and manufacturing, that laid the seeds for America's downward spiral.  ...

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President Biden made the decision to allow about half a million Venezuelan migrants who cannot be deported because US has no diplomatic relations with that country, to work legally. In New York half of the 100,000 migrants who arrived there in 2023 are putting too much pressure on the social safety net, a crisis for the school's shelter system, schools and budget. New York Democrats lobbied heavily for a change in the system. Mr.Biden made the decision to allow the Venezuelan migrants to be able to work legally. NY Mayor Adams and NY Governor Kathy Hochul lobbied heavily. The city had to house 60,000 migrants and it imposed a strain on the system. It was estimated to cost $12 billion for the city over a number of years. In the long run it will help New York State and the US with shortages of workers, yet in the short run the Republicans and immigration skeptics are protesting the arrival of migrants. Migrants arriving here after August will not be covered to not increase migration over the Mexican border.  ...

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President Trump has listened intently to Dr. Fauci and Dr. Brx of the White House team led by Vice President Pence, as he shapes policy decisions on tackling the epidemic. The White House team met again March 30 to see the data  about the coronavirus impact without lockdown and strict social distancing measures extended to April 30. Following this Mr. Trump extended the lockdown till April 30, 2020. This WSJ report shows how Mr. Fauci has forged a relationship with the president at a time of public health crisis. Dr. Fauci wins the respect of Democrats and Republicans, and the American people for the work he has done against epidemics, the valuable experience gained and how he is bringing this experience to the current crisis. It is also true that this is a team bringing different strengths and with mutual respect for each other- the calm demeanor and grip on data of Dr Brx, the experience of Dr. Fauci fighting epidemics for 30 years, the patience and hard work of Vice President Pence, and the president's fighting spirit and listening skills. ...

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Ann J. Selzer who does the polling for the local Iowan Des Moines Register for three decades says- “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.” Yet the process does drive results. The only time Democrats did poorly in Iowa with reason was under Hillary Clinton, and it was clear that Obama did not have Tom Vilsack's back. Vilsack the three time popular governor of Iowa was Agriculture Secretary, yet Obama distracted by Silicon Valley did not give the support he needed. Joe Biden as president made Tom Vilsack one of, if not the most important part of his Domestic Agenda, underlining also to all that foreign policy would be driven by domestic agenda, and by domestic is meant in large part long neglected Rural America. Growing up as an adopted child in difficult childhood, Tom Vilack represented the best of Iowa and America in his public service in the state and the entire Great Prairie states that form the heartland of America's breadbasket, and for the world.   ...

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DJT administration 25% tariffs on Canada Mexico for not stopping fentanyl flows as domestic policy go ahead on March 4, 2025. This lays the ground to tackle aproblem that has led to 490,000 American deaths and devastated communities across the US - the flow of fentanyl into the US from Mexico, Canad and China. Separately an additional 10% tariff is going to effect on China on top of earlier tariffs on China.  The media keeps talking about this tariff as a economic action, not as action to stop all fentanyl flows as is repeatedly stated by DJT and the Administration. Most of the media has failed to talk about the fentanyl deaths over 12 years referring as one of the prominent media states as the "death of thousands" not giving the staggering number and the scale of the devastation of communities in America after the damage from the 2009 financial crisis caused by banks, the deindustrialization of America that was allowed to happen under Bush Republicans and Obama Democrats, and the covid pandemic crisis.  ...

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House Democrats in the USA want to require all steel to be used in stimulus infrastructure projects come from the USA. Some of these moves may result in moves by other countries to require that their stimulus spending use made at home only provisions.

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About half of all Democrats are unhappy with the news media's focus on Biden's age, while not covering the former president Trump's age in the same way. This shows a gap is opening up in how the voters perceive Biden and how the media is presenting Biden. This increases the probability of errors in the polling, and the questions worded in a way that distorts the results. 

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This may be the most important work of the DJT administration by 2027 into 2028 elections.  WSJ calls it the soda wars, when it is the slow destruction of America. As JFK and RFK well knew when they made fitness a goal for America in 1960- health is not built on sodas. Today with such high obesity, sodas and its likes, it is about the slow destruction of America.  MALA make America Live Again starts here. “When a taxpayer is putting money into SNAP, are they OK with us using their tax dollars to feed really bad food and sugary drinks to children, who perhaps need something more nutritious?” Right now it is the biggest item for schools in most states for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Plan. Passed by Congress in 1964 the original bill for SNAP excluded sodas and luxury drinks, but had Sodas added back in by the Senate. By lobbyists even in 1964? SNAP schools program falls under the Agriculture Department. Democrats as well as Republicans appointed Agriculture Secretaries and not one took the action to get sodas excluded, to let states request sodas be excluded and approve it, not the Democrat a Carter, a Clinton, or an Obama, or a Republican a Reagan, a Bush, or a Trump (first term) took the necessary action. In 2025 Brooke Rollins is Agriculture Department Secretary. Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee has seen the damage sodas can cause in her family. Rollins on her first day in office has finally acted- after 61 years when the original intentions of the SNAP bill's creators were confounded in the Senate.  On her first full day in office, urging them to propose pilot programs testing changes to food aid. Rollins sent governors a letter to ask for the removal of sodas from schools food aid program.   ...

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Talks on June 28-29 in Rome between President Francois Hollande of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. They will be joined by the Italian and Spanish prime ministers, Mario Monti and Mariano Rajoy. Hollande has invited the opposition Social Democrats in Germany for talks in Paris to win support for his approach to the eurozone crisis. The growth initiative proposed by Hollande is fairly modest and Merkel has expressed her support for this. The tougher issues revolve around some acceptable form of mutualizing of eurozone debt to tackle a loss of confidence in financial markets without a surrender of sovereignty by France and other eurozone nations- a particularly sensitive issue in France. More Europe, would mean more German influence in decisionmaking. Germany rejects eurobonds and direct aid to banks from the ECB. Centralized banking supervision and close regulation by a new European regulatory authority would be needed as part of a new eurozone financial architecture. The immediate issues are of some form of deposit insurance for the eurozone banking system so that there is no run on the banks in Spain and other countries....

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Samuelson warns that turning seniors into a protected class making no sacrifices whatsoever, will mean shrinking all other social programs, defense and investments in education and infrastructure. This is the reality of the budget deficits facing the U.S. He cites the Congressional Budget Office projections that even with cutting defense and non defense discretionary spending by a third, the U.S. risks a deficit in 2023 of about 6.75% of the economy or gross domestic product (GDP). To cover this would require $1 trillion in higher taxes, an increase of a third above the 1970-2011 average. He says Democrats are using demagoguery and intimidation on this issue, and ironically even Paul Ryan's proposal reflects a desire not to touch seniors benefits and willingness to pass on the costs to the young to pay for these programs. Social Security and Medicare are a critical part of the American fabric, and no one wants to dismantle them, it is about modernizing them to reflect higher life expectancy and larger wealth accumulated by the elderly compared to previous generations, and to reduce the burden on the young. ...