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The 1.5 million people in the six boroughs of New York city where they do not always know when their next meal comes from. This was before th pandemic hit. Today after the coronavirus this has grown to 2 million says the president of Food Banks for New York city. This FR24 report looks at the deep problems in the social fabric of America that have developed over decades of misallocation of capital away from health, education, infrastructure, and manufacturing.

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Two way trade goal of $60 billion goal set for 2010 during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to China. The focus on both sides is on improving the lives of the people in their countries, where even rapid growth still leaves vast gaps in the country's development between urban and rural, coastal and remote regions in the interior, and huge challenges wherever they turn from the environmental degradation of industrialization, to health care in a capitalist economy for both countries, and worker and human rights in a capitalist economy for China, to infrastructure development in India. So the sobering tone of Wen " its not a matter of who outdoes whom" and the thrust of Manmohan Singh's "our people are united in their aspirations for a better future". See Wen's speech to the Japanese Parliament in 2007 where he referred to two temples or monasteries in China where lamps were burning continuously to promote the cooperation and peaceful development in the two countries. He strikes one as thoughtful and focussed on improving the lives of the Chinese people, but that said is part of the system of development in China which is focussed on manufacturing for export with few of the worker protections and much corruption....

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Leading business and government figures comment on the Davos forum and its effectiveness.

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Willy Staley in NYT shows how like other tech companies Netflix built its business on mountains of debt. The total debt on Netflix's balance sheet built by issuing new bonds is estimated at $14 billion. This is at a time when the budget for FEMA during climate change disasters all around the country is $18 billion.  With hurricane Milton storming at 180 mph towards Tampa Bay area just days after hurricane Helene. As Christopher Flavelle in NYT today shows FEMA has only 10% of staff available after Helene to deal with hurricane Milton on October 7 2024. 

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Takeda Pharmaceutical is negotiating the acquisition of Swiss drugmaker Nycomed for about $14 billion. Takeda has cash reserves of $10.8 billion and will be using this to fund the acquisition, as well as loans from banks. The strong yen has made acquisitions easier for Japanese companies. Takeda's Prevacid ulcer treatment and the Actos diabetes treatment have both expired. A generic launch of Actos is expected in August 2011. Takeda bought the U.S. unit of Millenium Pharmaceutical in 2008 for $8.9 billion for a significant presence in the oncology field. Takeda projects a drop in net profit by April 2013 by 35%, and sales by 11%, for the fiscal year 2013. Takeda's president says it will make investments in China of about 20-30 billon yen and target a ten fold increase in sales in China to 30 billion yen by 2015.

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Brett Arends cites several factors for his skepticism about the 4th quarter 2010 US stock market rally. Cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios that are 75% above their average value. A market value for US equities excluding financial stocks, that is within 15% of the October 2007 peak. Fed data that shows nonfinancial corporations have debt of $7.4 trillion at the end of the third quarter 2010, an increase of $250 billion in one year, and up from $5.5 trillion in 2005. This Fed data shows the debt for nonfinancial US corporations is 58% of their net worth, up from 41% five years ago. US consumers are still have the kind of debt burdens they had in 2008, with US households having reduced their debt by only about 3.5%. Arends says the leveraging is through the roof when you add up the debt that government and corporations have run up. Total debt has risen to $36 trillion, up 15% from the fall of 2007. He cites other experts who were right for the last decade who are skeptical this time- Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, Albert Edwards at S.G. Securities, John Hussman at Hussman Funds. The latest analysis by Jeremy Grantham at GMO is that large cap US stocks are not likely to beat inflation by much over the next 7 years. Arends has not mentioned global risk indicators such as the asset price bubbles developing in emerging markets, and the sovereign debt restructuring needed in debt burdened countries of the European Union. Analysis by the Economist in year-end 2010 points to the diverging directions of austerity in Europe, spending in the US and asset price bubbles in emerging markets, as a disturbing sign for 2011-2012. Risks in the US that Arends has not mentioned include problems in housing. Nouriel Roubini sees problems in housing in 2011. ...

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Landler and Haberman provide a chronological summary of the events leading up to the speech by president Trump on August 21,2017 for continuing the war in Afghanistan with troop increases. Initially Trump followed his instincts and questioned his generals Mattis and McMaster, who have experience with the war in Afghanistan. McMaster prepared the plan. Tillerson, Secretary of State, called for a civilian component for the State Department in the military's plan. The options included using U.S. troops, covert CIA operation, and using mercenaries. The key factor- learning from the experience of the Iraq withdrawal of 2011 andnot  letting things get out of control as happened in Iraq and Syria after 2011 with rise of Islamic State and intervention by Iran and Russia, destabilization of the European Union through accelerated refugee flows. In the end the costs were too significant to let a vacuum develop and the U.S. president gave an honest reflection in his televised speech which was exceptional in its candour and willingness to lay the facts out. Trump's own instincts which he has historically followed would be set aside in this case because of the evidence the generals had given, supported by vice president Pence and key members of the Republican party. The president known for impulsive behaviour could be described as having gone through a period of reflection with the key military officers on what it was all about. In the end the decision to use U.S. troops to control the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan was taken to prevent a vacuum from developing. ...

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2012 car sales in France declined by 13.9%. This was higher than the 8.2% decline in the European market, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. Analysts point to low new demand in the developed world- only 2% for U.S. and Europe compared to 70% in emerging markets. Replacement demand is also declining as younger people in urban areas increasingly use subway transportation and bicycles. Better made automobiles last longer and car owners drive less with an aging population reducing replacement demand. This reporter found few customers at auto dealerships in the centre of Paris.

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The spending on services like cable, television, internet connectivity, video games according to the Census Bureau for 2004 was $771 per year In 2008 this was $903, in 2010 $997 And add anothe $1000 for cellphone service and the average family in the USA spends as much on this as it does on dining or buying gasoline. Add extra for iTunes, texting services, music. Now buyers of Apple iPad can buy unlimited data access from AT&T for $30 a month. Are these expenses discretionary? Some experts think that it is part of the need for connectedness in today's society, and part of being functional in today's society.

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Capital outflows from China by legal and other methods tolerated by the authorites comes to $225 billion or 3% of GDP in the year ending Sept. 2012, according to research by the the Wall Street Journal. The research looked at foreign exchange reserves and factors that affect reserves such as foreign direct investment, trade surplus, interest on foreign assets and exchange rate fluctuations. Estimates by Lombard Street Research are higher- at $300 billion for this period. By comparison Journal research shows the capital outflows for 12 months to March 2009 during the global financial crisis was $110 billion. An extreme situation is the 23% of GDP in capital outflows from Indonesia during the global financial crisis. Money transfer agents are widely used by wealthy Chinese to move money overseas and are tolerated by the authorites- everything from financing tution for children to buying condos in Cyprus can be done this way. Cyprus gives EU citizenship to any person investing 300,000 euros in a property. Increased foreign investment by Chinese companies and earnings by exporters that are kept overseas are also part of this outflow....

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Median paycheck at Amazon is $28,000 compared to $50,000 at IBM, and much more at Google. Most of the half million people at Amazon work at fulfillment centres and logistics centres and make much less than computer software coders. The median pay works out to be about $14 per hour- the kind of pay for warehouse workers. Even though software is at the core of what it does Amazon is a retailer and is shown as such on the S&P 500. Logistics engineers make $50,000 in average pay at Amazon, and software development engineers make $107,000.

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Chrysler Financial ends its lease program and under new negotiations with lending banks is expected to pay a pemium of 2 percentage points above LIBOR, three times the "spread" it paid last year.

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The risks of the Fed's reinflation policy in 2010-2011. It risks increasing "bad" inflation, the kind that fall heaviest on low income households. Commodities are on fire, and the increase in the price of oil and food, would only leave consumers drowning in the new inflation, says Kelly Evans.

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The way in which the subprime mortgage crisis is affecting Germany. How mid sized German banks formed conduits like the larger banks in Europe and expanded them to the point where their conduits were as large as those of the large banks. Lacking the resources of the larger banks these banks were the first to fall in this crisis. Conduits are off balance sheet affiliates that borrow using short term commercial paper to invest in longer term securities. Its critical that they have access to capital borrowing because the commerical paper has to be renewed. In a crisis like this one if the borrowing ability vanishes because of perceived risk by lenders then the whole operation can blow up. So the German central bank had to intervene to support 2 of these institutions IKB Deutsche Industrie Bank and Sachsen LB and organize a rescue operation. The background of how these stateowned banks got into this conduit business is explained here and information available on their exposure to USA subprime mortgage securities. ...

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Cuts in benefits under French PM Bayrou's budget are highly unpopular.

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The real estate bubble in Canada in March 2012. Rental rates for office space increased by 17% in 2011, according to Cushman. Toronto office space vacancy is below 5% for 2011. Scotia Plaza of Bank of Nova Scotia draws many bidders as banks in Canada use the high demand to sell their office buildings.

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Not since the days of the Vietnam War has Madison, Wisconsin seen the kinds of demonstrations that were seen last week. This raises a question whether this creates an awakening of the progressive movement. Wisconsin, New Jersey, Ohio, seem to suggest that whats happening in the states will become more important in shaping public opinion as the U.S. elections of 2012 approach. Ohio also has a plan by Governor John Kasich that restricts collective bargaining rights of public workers. A key question is how much public support there is for reduction of pension and health benefits of public employees. Even though the favorable ratings of unions are at a low, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center, the public is divided over whether it supports unions or state governments in disputes about benefits, with slightly more support for the unions. And other states such as Michigan with new Republican governors and majorities in state legislatures say they are not taking the path of Wisconsin in limiting collective bargaining rights, suggesting caution in this respect, even as they plan cuts in benefits. Because of the intensity and passion that has been aroused something more than the calculations of the politicians, including the President, may be at play. President Obama, says the Washington Post, is playing a longer game on the budget, with a measured response, but also saying that teachers, firefighters and police officers were being vilified. The demonstrations in Wisconsin were more bottom up than top down, and have the potential to affect the political dynamic and the way the U.S. addresses its problems in unpredictable ways....

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The risks that China could be stuck in middle income status- plateauing similiar to countries like Mexico in middle income status- grow as China's remains stuck in a state enterprises driven model of growth at the expense of consumers and savers. Japan reached the level of development China is in today in 1970, Taiwan in 1980 and South Korea in 1990. Progress from now on depends on innovation and developing a more open society as shown in the experience of Japan and South Korea, which requires a shift away from most bank lending and funding investment going to state owned enterprises and towards private enterprises and tech startups. The resulting overbuilding has led to a vast misallocation of resources and starving new private enterprises of the large amounts of capital needed. Porter describes the lower level of rural education which has not kept up with the pace of improvement in urban schools, and which poses problems for the future, including a shortage of skilled workers.