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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he doesn't yet have the necessary votes to stop Democrats from calling for witnesses. Democrats want former presidential National Security Adviser Mr. Bolton to testify under oath about the president's motivations for freezing aid to Ukraine. During three day of presentations by Mr. Trump's defense legal team the focus of Pat Philbin and Alan Dershowitz was on the actions of the president on Ukraine policy not rising to the level of Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Justice that Democrats in the House have presented as the 2 Articles for impeachment. Earlier the White House legal team put the focus on Mr. Biden, and his son Hunter Biden's role in the Ukrainian company Burisma as a board member. Burisma was being investigated for corruption by Ukrainian prosecutors. Much of the defense presentation recalled the effort during the early days after the Civil War to impeach president Andrew Johnson simply because Republicans in Lincoln's party did not like Mr. Johnson's views on Reconstruction of the South, and his dismissal of Mr. Stanton, the Secretary of War. That effort failed because it lacked one additional vote needed for a two thirds majority in the Senate. Republicans say not only are the president's actions on Ukraine calling for an investigation of the Biden's not an impeachable offense as "a high crime," but also that Democrats dislike of Mr. Trump just as Republican dislike for Mr. Johnson was lowering the bar for impeachment by making malleable charges. They argued that one of the country's founders Mr. Mason even rejected the idea presented to him that "maladministration" as grounds for impeachment should be put in the Constitution for the very same reason, that it was malleable to a preconceived notion of what is wrong. Four Republican senators Gardner of Colorado, McSally of Arizona, Tillis of North Carolina and Collins of Maine face tight races in upcoming elections, and may decide in favor of a compromise for the calling of witnesses. This would allow Republicans to call Mr. Biden and Hunter Biden to testify, and Democrats to call Mr. Bolton to testify on his views expressed in his to be published book that the president withheld aid to Ukraine because he felt that corruption needed to be investigated.   ...

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Tourism is recovering in Kashmir as the violence in Kashmir is fading gradually with sporadic incidents, with a new democratically elected civilian coalition government in Pakistan which may not be interested in supporting violent factions inside Kashmir. 450,000 tourists visited Kashmir in 2007 but only 25,000 foreign tourists. The state is investing in golf courses in Kashmir to make Kashmir a golfer's destination for tourists from Europe, the Middle East and the USA. This shows that the mood there is changing and a new wind is blowing.

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With a democratically elected government not the real power in Pakistan and most power resting in the army and spy agency, India-Pakistan negotiations are going nowhere at this time. More tension in Kashmir and Afghanistan complicates the situation.

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The French view of the DJT administration is that it is a rupture, an "historic rupture with immigration repression, aggressive trade policy, and undermining of federal and state institutions." This is far from the reality. In fact it is not a rupture, and far from that policy that DJT brought in the waning days of a tired cautious Obama administration that extended the war in Afghanistan long after it was clearly a failure from the Bush years. DJT called it common sense during his Inauguration speech waving his hands- so obvious, stay out of wars we have no purpose pursuing. Regain America's manufacturing base shipped out to China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years 2000-2016 that helped the rise of China in phases of supply chain partner, competitor, adversary. French view Le Monde is that this is "aggressive trade policy," when in fact small towns across the US and France, and other industrialized EU nations, by losing their factory and industrial base to China have gone downhill losing jobs and standard of living. Tariffs and DJT policy was continued by Biden- there is no rupture. What French in Le Monde call "Immigration repression," is a policy of protecting border security including illegal drug and fentanyl flows and gang activity that was accepted by Biden and Biden-Republican Lankford legislation was agreed in 2024 to close the Border. There is no rupture from Biden on closing the Border.  With millions having crossed the Border illegally Republicans now have the support of Democratic Senators Gallego of Arizona and Fetterman of Pennsylvania in passing the Laken Riley Act in Congress to protect Americans and safeguard life in America.   ...

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DJT tariffs are selective and reciprocality makes them fair. This also cushions the impact on consumers and countries. Countries who have blatantly unfair tariffs for decades can then decide as in EU, China, India, Japan, S. Korea, Mexico and Canada, can decide how they will respond by looking at what they need to do for fair trade. Some tariffs are intended also as domestic policy for failure to control of fentanyl into the US as with CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China. US producers will make goods sourced from these countries at home and as DJT says about autos from Mexico this will lead to American producers in Detroit picking up production and bringing manufacturing back home to USA. Most goods Americans use were made in the US in the postwar period from 1950-1980, American manufacturing will get the boost it so badly needs after unfair trade practices from other countries in the EU, Japan, Taiwan and China. By April this policy will be in place, by June in 6 months the policies will be fully operational at entry ports in the US including Los Angeles and Long Beach. All tariffs are selective, carefully evaluated for individual countries and products and regions based on reciprocality a principle that is fair to all countries and the principle on which the world trading system is founded. Individual companies and industries that gain this or that benefit may present it differently saying is good or bad based on their interest and profits- for the US and American people the principle of reciprocality provides a yardstick that is both fair and in the long term interest of bringing jobs and higher wages to the US. ...

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This opinion by Andres Oppenheimer in Miami Herald Jan 30, 2025, welcomes Rubio's visit to Latin America starting with central American countries in the coming weeks, but says it should have a message to help these countries cope with economic crises. This would be also a way to discourage migration by reducing both the mismanagement of the economy, and gang crime with economic assistance and help in managing the economy.  The Miami Herald says the last time the US paid attention to the southern part of the American continent was in 1912. Yet it was in 1960 during the debates with Nixon that JFK asserted the importance of Latin American relations. In 1961 JFK launched the Allianza de Progreso.  Sixty four years later the page on the, Alliance for Progress in the JFK Library site says it was a failure. LBJ, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Obama Biden lost interest in Latin America. It blames the elites in Latin America and American business that showed little interest. Yet compared to 1960 a lot of progress has been made. Brazil the largest is now a more stable and growing economy, Mexico has grown and struggles with the drug trade, Argentina is still struggling with inflation. Only in Central America and Venezuela is the situation dire. Much of it from gangs and drug trade that has destabilized small countries. Venezuela was torn up because of a lack of national consciousness to bring all parties together for the common good using tested approaches to development- instead embarking on a novel socialist experiment with disastrous results for both Venezuela and the entire American continent.  ...

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Germany's DW.com says in this report- "However, economists have pointed out that the US benefits from having large trade imbalances with the rest of the world, as the dollar is used in most trade, and offers major tailwind effects to the US economy." Which economists one must ask? Most of these economists had turned their back on the working people in factories in America, on their wages turned into a downward spiral, on their jobs, their factories lost for three decades. Today the American people have a sense of the true cost of this colossal failure to protect American workers and small towns across America depending on manufacturing. The pandemic exposed the risks of supply chain shocks and inflation by overly concentrating manufacturing in China.  The US has 1 trillion in trade deficits each year and it is completing the destruction of manufacturing in the US. Half of this is with China as China exports through Vietnam and Mexico, third countries, in addition to 295 billion dollars of trade imbalance the US has with China. China, Mexico, Canada and Vietnam are the largest offenders. No country can long endure with such a loss of its manufacturing base. The US Navy itself is in danger without the manufacturing to compete with China that has taken up over 50% of shipbuilding, and soon will not be able to protect the free world if these types of economists and self serving German or other foreign interests drive a false narrative. Without the US Navy in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans no one is safe, not Germany, not the EU, not India or the rest of the world. ...

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This report from Myamar's capital Naypyidaw, says the capital with six lane highways with hardly any cars is symbolic of Myanmar since independence from the British in 1948. For most of this period it has been ruled by the military which keeps a distance from the prior capital Rangoon because of protests for democracy. He points out that western disillusionment with Aung suu Kyi comes from a failure to understand her position as a counselor not allowed to assume the presidency because her children are British citizens, that most of the key ministries are controlled by the military. She is a symbolic head following the 2015 elections and needs to work with the military in a long term effort to bring Myanmar into the community of nations after decades of isolation. Reporting from Myanmar Cohen of the NYT says it is necessary to understand this to understand Myanmar today and Suu Kyi's reticence in the face of the crisis from Bangladeshi migrants becoming one third of the population of the northern region of Rakhine. Cohen also points out that behind the image of Buddhist Burma in western eyes is a region of tropical jungles in the north with minority communities that came under British rule in Burma, and the fears of losing their identity of Burmese Buddhists in the Rangoon region. Cohen ends with a plea to give Suu Kyi more time and to remember her "letters from Burma" about the need for the rule of law and how the long traumas of military rule have affected a whole generation of Burmese children. It is easy he says for western media who have not faced down guns to de sanctify Kyi's image, but she remains the last hope for Myanmar in what he calls a game that is being played out with military rulers over a long, long period. ...

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An enormous achievement of president Joe Biden and of the Federal Reserve's Powell goes unrecognized with the highest growth of any the economically developed nations by far in the US, as groups stuck in old frayed concepts of economic orthodoxy and wanting to keep as FDR said "their place in the economic order," work to denigrate this achievement. They have sold trickle down economics, broken some common sense rules about failures in indiscriminate use of tariffs from the 1930's, which will put at risk this remarkable growth in the US economy. And does the current economic leadership respect Rural White people, Republicans in Republican States Absolutely. It is sending the largest part of the IRA Act funds to these states. It is also standing up for workers and families even on the picket lines for higher wages, a better future for America. True it is that in 4 years the effects of problems that were unanticipated from the pandemic relief and the supply chain crisis with ensuing inflation and price gouging in groceries and essential items, have affected the most depressed groups in America including blacks and Latinos and rural White Americans. These also are largely in the process of being overcome.      ...

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Stephen Moore says both Paul Ryan and his mentor had a singular grasp of the importance of faster economic growth on the deficit and fiscal problems. Though spending restraint is necessary the key to avoiding a fiscal crisis is economic growth generated by private investment. He says the increased focus by Ryan on spending restraint compared to Kemp reflects the difference between that era and this one, with the deficit much larger now. And not a reflection on Ryan's grasp of problems of the urban poor and struggling working class, something Kemp grasped. The problems are large on the spending side but says Moore this can only be solved by pushing hard for economic growth of 4% as targeted by Romney and Ryan. It is also important says Moore for the Romney-Ryan campaign to emphasize growth as the key message and not having this message lost in a back and forth with the Democrats about Obama's economic failures and voter fears about cuts that lead voters to tune out the conflicting messages....

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Under an agreement reached by EU finance ministers in November 2010, beginning in 2013 euro-zone bonds will include clauses requiring bondholders to accept restructuring measures if necessary. Germany wanted to see an earlier phase-in period. Both in the Greek bailout and in the measures taken for aiding Ireland, investors were protected from losses resulting from bank failures or government default. As taxpayers in Europe are bearing the cost of the bailouts, and with the rising anger that has resulted, Germany has insisted on bondholders bearing their share of the losses from risky decisions. France argued for flexibility, as a result this was introduced with a caveat. Bondholders could face losses, but only on a case by case basis, witht the IMF providing guidance. Germany has argued that markets need to factor in the risk in their calculations for each country, and this will increase the costs if countries engage in excessive borrowing, as bondholders will have to account for the extra risk. This would prevent the recurrence of the crisis currently facing the euro-zone....

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Thomas Hoenig, chairman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, says the five largest financial institutions in the US are 20% larger today than they were before the 2008 crisis. These five institutions control $8.6 trillion in financial assets or the equivalent of 60% of gross domestic product in the USA. He points out that whether we like it or not, these firms are too big to fail. Though these institutions survived the 2008 crisis with a bailout from the Fed as shown in the Fed's recent revealed documents, Hoenig says, little has changed on Wall Street. Two years after the crisis of 2008, these firms again operate with bonus and compensation schemes that reflect not the recent failures but a sense of success. Hoenig says this is why the American people are angry. An absence of accountability and blatant inequities with which smaller businesses and institutions were treated compared to the large ones, is why they will remain angry. Without this accountability he feels Americans cannot build a national consensus for the sacrifices needed to rebuild the American economy....

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The trial of 12 Catalan leaders for a botched secession attempt begins in Spain's Supreme Court. It is being broadcast live on Spanish television. 

The minority government of prime minister Pedro Sanchez could be toppled on Feb. 13, 2019 as parliament votes on the national budget. Sanchez needs the votes of Catalan legislators in Congress to pass the budget vote. Failure to win support could lead to a fall of this minority government and fresh elections, continuing the political uncertainty in Spain.

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Followup to yesterdays (Aug 16, 2007) wsj article on the failure of credit ratings agencies in the current crisis. This covers the European oversight of the role of ratings agencies. Conflicts of interest are being investigated by the European union's internal markets commissioner. Note the focus on the slowness of ratings agencies to respond to the deteriorating situation since mid-2006.

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Zardari is described as "very, very weak" by the administration, and his popularity is only in the double digits compared to 83% says the NYT. From the standpoint of democratically elected government it is important to note that Zardari himself was never directly elected, and is highly unpopular and weak, and known for corruption. If anew election was held today its highly unlikely that he would be elected. Even Benazir Bhutto's popularity may be aresult of years of military rule, and the efforts by General Musharraf to suppress freedoms and prolong his rule. Her party came to power in addition from a sympathy vote after the Musharraf government did little to provide the securtiy that could have prevented her from being shot at an election rally. With the lack of good alternatives -not the military which has provoked wars with India, not the Bhutto parties which have lasted for only short periods marked by corruption, and its not clear if the Sharif governments have done much better- its hard to say how the people of Pakistan can register their voice for responsibile democratic government which works diligently to bring services in healthcare, education, and build infrastructure, for Pakistan to keep up with the region's development....

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Holbrooke, special envoy to South Asia, meets with leaders and civilians in Pakistan.

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Mead points out that the world with an effective U.S. leadership based on democracy and the values we cherish is needed now more than ever, after the failures of the Bush and Obama administrations to provide the kind of balanced leadership all Americans can stand behind. A world without an effective and enlightened leadership from the U.S, is one in which the world could fall apart in regional rivalry, one in which the hundreds of millions of people in the poorer parts of India, China, Russia, Brazil, and other developing countries of the world, will have less opportunity to meet their aspirations for a better life. This is because a focus on development requires less regional rivalry and because serious missteps can reverse in a few years decades of economic progress as shown in the 2008 global financial crisis. More so because we live in an increasingly interdependent global economy. It is also the kind of world where suppression of freedoms and suppression of the opposition as in China and Russia, provides a wrong kind of message, a world in which we or our children would not want to live in. Russia, India and China, are too driven by rivalry and lack the deep experience to go it alone, multipolar is more likely to end up being multipolar rivalry leading to a race to the bottom, which would be bad for all, especially for the poor in Asia and the developing world. The 2008 crisis showed what some serious economic mistakes could do to employment and incomes in the world with output dropping by a third in most places. Political missteps could lead to a slippery slope of this magnitude but more difficult to correct. Greater participation in the political process and more enlightened leadership is needed in all countries to allow many voices and greater interaction across boundaries, focussing on the dangers of such multipolar rivalries. The world of the G-7 is already moving to the G-20 where many voices are heard and serious discussion of differences takes place, but participatory is different from multipolar....

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The language and tone of the leaders says something about what is likely to be the outcome of the G20 summit. Its a first for significant participation, as countries as diverse as Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the Netherlands are represented. The credible positions of both sides, the US, UK and Japan, and the European side of France, Germany and the Czech Republic, well presented, provide for some serious discussion and negotiations. France's Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel want to see a global regulator that would reach inside the borders of the US with stricter regulation. Sarkozy calls this "nonnegotiable." And he said that he would reject an agreement that puts off stringent new regulations on banks, tax havens, and hedge funds. He said "the compromise has to come from all countries around the world." US President Obama said that if there is going to be renewed growth it can't just be the US as the engine, everybody is going to have to pick up the pace," at the same time saying that the US had to be concerned about its own deficits. The fact is that the US stimulus will mostly help a severely impacted domestic economy recover with social safey net payments to local and state governments and unemployment insurance, as well as targeted investments in infrastructure, education, energy and health care. It will not mean anywhere near the kinds of imports the US made from other countries, especially China. And Obama made that clear when he said the US will never return to that situation, where the US had become a "voracious consumer market." For the Germans the major market for their middle companies is China, and China has its own stimulus spending on infrastructure spending, which should provide for continued imports of machinery from Germany at a much lower level. Thus Germany and France see a strong tendency to call the source of the crisis and repeat that call till the US listens, and refer to the failure of free market capitalism in its unregulated form. And to insist on fixing it through a global regulator with strict and systemwide rules. So you hear this in Merkel's words, "the foundation for this finacial architecture must be laid now, that is why we seem to be so tough." While the vivacious Sarkozy talks of compromise, and a US gesture in regulation in return for Franc's gesture of joining NATO, the mild mannered Merkel is clear and focussed about her concern. She rejects the idea of linking stimulus spending demands of the Anglo-Americans with the Franco-German demands for global systemwide regulation. "This is not a bargaining chip," she says. The media may mistakenly report lack of consensus as a failure of the summit. But in the long run in the presence of good positions on both sides, it could lead to some tough negotiations even if continued at another meeting. And result in something serious, credible and lasting in its impact, rather than something that was easy and did not in Andy Grove's useful words involve "constructive confrontation." ...

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Dugan and Spector of the WSJ take readers through efforts to push self driving technology to its limits at electric car maker Tesla. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is pushing the technology and plans to get a self driving car go from Los Angeles to New York by the end of 2017. Problems faced by Tesla include a car crash involving a driver who took his hands off the wheel of a Tesla automobile, leading to a crash with an eighteen wheeler truck. This led to an investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Board and a decision by Tesla to make driver's hands on the steering wheel required for autopilot to operate. Earlier in 2015 Tesla engineers confirmed that the Tesla cars were not ready for autonomous driving because of near crashes when the reliance was placed entirely on the technology. Ten engineers and two managers resigned from Tesla according to this report by WSJ, with problems relating to deadlines and marketing decisions. Sterling Anderson, the head of the Autopilot program at Tesla resigned to start his own company with the head of the autonomous driving unit at Google, saying he was going to do it the right way, citing concerns that Musk was going ahead with the technology without making it failure proof. The tricky thing about auto pilot driving is the behavioural factors involved, where drivers may take their hands off the steering wheel and not be prepared to act as a backup should the technology fail or something go wrong. Another aspect of this is the tendency of drivers not to pay attention to the road and rely completely on the auto pilot to do everything, more than its capabilities today. Toyota and other auto companies are including some elements of collision free driving, and reliable aspects of the new technology into cars. For Tesla the driverless technology is part of its marketing appeal, and CEO Musk has moved faster in this respect than his own engineering team, according to this WSJ report. ...

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After the hearing on November 18, 2007, in the Senate in front of the Banking Committee, most senators remained unconvinced. Prof. Morici of the University of Maryland and some senators including the senator from Tennessee asked tough questions about the automakers business model and viability going forward and some senators voiced deep concern about the automakers resistance to better fuel efficiency standards. The testimony given in advance and the remarks ahead of the questions showed the Detroit automakers CEO's were in a disconnect as they did not come forward with an acceptance of past mistakes on fuel efficiency, lack of vision on energy conservation, and failure of union and management to address benefits and work rules that were obsolete a long time ago, relying too heavily on lobbyists and on the plea by Michigan senator Debbie Stabenow for aid. Failure to do this and relying too heavily on the job losses and economic threat may have alienated many senators who are outside the midwestern region where most of the Detroit automakers are concentrated....

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Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the German parliament is realistic about the prospects of Minsk 2, after the failure of Minsk 1, which was negotiated in the Belarus capital Minsk in September 2014. The Russians have the upper hand militarily and the demarcation line moves further to the west in current negotiations in Minsk. The breakdown in Minsk 1 comes as Putin continues to support the separatists in Ukraine, who declared a Donestsk People's Republic with elections held recently, and have now taken territory to make their positions in eastern Ukraine more defensible. The war could end there with a de facto split of eastern Ukraine on the Russian side, or lead to further guessing of Russian president Putin's intentions if the conflict continues. Italy's foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni, points out that arms aid by the U.S. to Ukraine would only fail as Russia could respond, and it gives the Russian president the added advantage of the narrative that the U.S. and NATO are a threat to Russia at its borders. All sides say they respect the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine, but the fact remains that Ukraine is deeply divided with the eastern region bordering Russia having close ties to Russia, and the western region near Poland having strong ties to a newly emergent EU that includes much of Eastern Europe. Prudence and restraint is needed on all sides for a settlement. ...

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Questions readers raise about Lewis Sorley's account of wins in the latter part of the war in Vietnam. The idea presented that had the country stood behind the war effort it could have been turned around. Here President Johnson's own deputy national security advisor, Francis Bator, who is Professor emeritus at the Harvard Kennedy School, refutes this notion by saying that: "in Vietnam the goal was clear but unattainable by any means not grossly disproportionate to the American stake." He goes on to say that false inferences from that failure will not help President Obama with the hard question of deciding what feasible goals and means in Afghnistan and Pakistan and other places will minimize chances of amajor terrorist attack on the United States, whaterver its origating location. And doing this in a cost-effective way. The wording is designed to first focus on what is the minimum that America wants- safety from another attack. Second, to focus on doing this in a cost-effective way. At some point resources added become disproportionate to the American stake in Afghanistan. An infantryman in the Vietnam war describes a people in villages that he was supposed to protect who would not even alert American soldiers of bombs when they knew exactly where they were placed. People in villages who were basically indifferent to the central government in South Vietnam. Are the Afghan people any different? See the links to this....

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King Salman appoints Mohamed bin Nayef, 55 years-old, as the deputy crown prince in Jan. 2015. The crown prince is Muqrin Abdulaziz, 69 years-old. Mohamed Bin Nayef is the son of the Interior Minister, who worked under his father from 1999 till he became the new Interior minister in 2012. Nayef has pursued an aggressive program to remove Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. By taking action against all dissent inside Saudi Arabia Nayef has also jailed human rights activists, including the flogging of a blogger critical of the government. The defense minister Prince Mohamed bin Salman, is a son of King Salman. King Salman was defense minister till he succeeded his half-brother Abdullah. Ali al-Naimi continues as Oil minister, a position he has held for decades. Saudi Arabia established a panel in 2006 to work with future kings after King Salman to appoint an heir to the throne. Even with the appointment of Nayef, a grandson of Saudi Arabia's founder, Abdulaziz ibn Saud, as deputy crown prince, the leadership of the country remains within a small number of princes of the royal family. Under the Obama administration the relations between U.S. and Saudi Arabia have become strained with president Obama's failure to intervene in Syria. The Saudi have pursued their own policies since then, in first Bahrain and then Egypt the Saudis supported the monarchy and the military respectively to maintain power in the face of the Arab Spring. The danger is that Saudi policies may be contrary to the U.S. position supporting freely elected governments and basic rights, particularly when it comes to suppression of all dissent including peaceful dissent and normal criticism of government, and yet with the rise of Islamic State the U.S. puts itself inadvertently behind these very policies. The Saudis would say this has happened because U.S. president Obama failed to support the effort for freedom in Syria and a transition in Libya and Iraq (with the added complication of Maliki's sectarian policies), creating a war torn neighborhood in which the Saudis had to act on their own. These are the hidden costs of the policy of the U.S. president for the U.S. and for the Middle East- more sectarianism with Shiites and Sunnis openly in conflict, reversal of hard won gains in Iraq, reversal of the Arab Spring except in Tunisia, war torn Libya and Iraq- with a withdrawal that never truly happened because it required a firmly guided transition period of support in the region with lower cost and involvement of an extended period leaving no room for reversal of gains. It leaves both the Saudis and the U.S. in a more precarious position than a decade ago....

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The changing attitudes to regulation after serious regulatory failures in the last years of the Bush administration. The temper and mood of the new Obama administration.