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Some subway stations in New York city are very quiet, others are busy as people have to go to work. Overall subway capacity is used at about 30% on December 2, during the second wave of coronavirus,

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Jenkins sees risks to Apple's closed ecosystem and decline in margins of $300 on devices priced at $600.

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WSJ's CEO council advocates a goal of 10% electric cars by 2020 and upto 50% of the fleet by 2030. Other top priorities of the CEO's from Google, Intel, Time-Warner, Fedex and other companies at a recent 1 day conference were obesity, a stimulus program in excess of $300 billion, and restarting the Doha round of talks for global trade.

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California's governor Jerry Brown has put forward his budget plan for fiscal 2013 showing a budget surplus of $851 million. Brown was able to get Proposition 30 passed in the November 2008 elections. Higher income earners pay more in taxes for several years and the sales tax is increased. An improved economy with unemployment down from 11.3% in 2011 to 9.8% in Nov. 2012 is helping with higher tax revenues. General fund revenues are expected to increase 3.3% to $98.5 billion in the 2013 fiscal year from $95.4 billion the prior year. Brown has accomplished a remarkable feat of balancing the budget for 2013 and still continuing to invest in education and healthcare. Spending will increase 5% to $97.7 billion in fiscal 2013 from $93 billion in fiscal 2012 with higher spending on education and health care and lower spending in other areas. Brown's path to achieving this was eased after Democrats won control of both houses in the the state legislature. Says Brown: "Right now, for the next 4 years, we'll be talking about a balanced budget, we're talking about living within our means... This is new." Even Republicans praise this effort from a veteran of California politics- his father was governor in the Kennedy years, and he was governor in the 1980's....

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The drop in the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, hits ordinary Turks as it pushes up the price of food, medicine and other essentials. The lira has dropped by over a third of its value against the dollar in 2021. This is leading to a decline in living standards in Turkey, says this report in WSJ. President Erdogan is pushing an unconventional strategy to increase growth, by having the central bank cut interest rates as the value of lira drops sharply. This could lead to further drops in the lira making it difficult to make dollar debt repayments says this report in WSJ. The problem extends beyond drop in standard of living for average Turks. The country's banks are affected and companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars and foreign currency denominated debt. A large mismatch between foreign currency debt such as dollar debt and the country's foreign exchange reserves has led to countries such as Argentina falling behind and seeking IMF assistance. WSJ points out that Turkey has about $160 billion in foreign exchange assets, and $280 billion in liabilities as of August 2021, according to the Turkish central bank. Bank lending in foreign currency is 24% to 45% of their total loans in the first half of 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. This could lead to dollar debt rollover difficulties as debt repayment comes due in April 2021. ...

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Will a war in Ukraine affect the world's food supplies? Yes here is how. It would affect mainly the countries of North Africa that depend on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia. Egypt is the largest importer. Many of these countries depend on imports to keep their people fed. The cost of shipping it is less from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and Russia than if this wheat came all the way from America or Australia.  Much of Ukraine's wheat grows in the Kharkiv Oblast region in eastern Ukraine close to the border with Russia. With Russia putting 100,000 troops and prepared for an invasion of Ukraine both sides could be affected. Of the approximately 200 million metric tons of exports of wheat each year Russia and Ukraine make up about 29% or about 65 million metric tons. About two thirds of this from Russia and one third from Ukraine. Prices of wheat are already at an high of $310 a metric ton. Experts say this could double in the case of war or go up 20% even in a minor incursion. Western sanctions would affect Russian exports of wheat on top of the effects of war and devastated agriculture in Ukraine. When there are wars there are ripple effects- in this case all the way to North Africa.  ...

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The European Union goes forward with $39 billion for Ukraine aid. The aid is backed by interest from the $300 billion in Russian assets in Europe frozen when war began. Another $15-20 billon is expected from the US when legal questions about frozen Russian assets are resolved- the US asking for a 36 month review of sanctions to replace 6 months in place in 2024. The European Union offices in Brussels have done a poor job of communicating how the EU is  aiding Ukraine with its own resources. Lyrarc.com had to point out that Ukraine aid from EU was about twice that of the US at about $200 billion compared to about $95 billion for the US. Former president Trump stated that this was just the opposite the US spending twice what the US was spending. Media in today's world means little or nothing because it operates highly fragmented and organically outside the control of any particular source online, television or print. And established sources apart from bias are spread so thin many important matters for the betterment of people's lives or giving a true picture from which to make observations, are left to wither or distort. The highly formal  corporate environments of the EU are impervious to the outside so that institutions such as the ECB, European Union headquarters are out of touch with the people worldwide.  ...

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The drop in oil prices in 2014-2015 leads to a decline in the value of Nigeria's currency, the Naira, by over 10% in 2014. The Naira dropped to 186.9 to the dollar by Dec. 2, 2014. The foreign exchange reserves drop to $2 billion in Dec. 2014 from $20 billion in 2008. Investment in infrastructure and the electricity grid is badly needed. Imports of arms for the military add to budgetary strain as the government tackles the Boko Haram terrorist threat in the Kano region. The central bank puts out a revised budget based on an oil price of $73, as Brent crude dropped to $68. Like Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone dependent on iron ore exports, Angola and Mozambique on oil revenues, Zambia on copper, and South Africa on mining exports, much of Africa's economy is dependent on commodity exports. About 80% of Nigeria's government revenue is from oil exports, according to the IMF. And the entire budget for the nation with the largest population in Africa is only $30 billion.

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Argentina's presidential election on October 25, 2015, offers an opportunity for new leadership. President Christina Kirchner is limited 2 two terms by the constitution, she served 2007-2015, following her husband who was president 2003-2007. The candidate of Kirchner's Peronist Party, Daniel Scioli, governor of Buenos Aires Province, has 38% support in the polls, followed by Buenos Aires mayor, Mauricio Macri, of the centre-right PRO party, who has 30% support. The other candidate is Sergio Massa, former mayor of the city of Tigre, who leads the Renewal Front party, with 21% support. The election rules require the winner to win 45% in the first round or a 10% margin over the second place candidate, if not it goes to a runoff. Both Scioli and Macri are seen as being new faces with different policies to tackle the country's economic downturn, who would give Argentina a fresh start after the Kirchner years. A devaluation of the peso which has an official peg of 9.4, but trades unofficially at 15, and restoring trust of foreign investors, are some of the problems facing a new president....

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It is true carrots are good for eyesight and to prevent macular degeneration. Sunglasses help prevent ultraviolet rays from affecting the eyes. Reading without taking your eyes off the page is not conducive to good eye health- take time out every 20 minutes to look outside for at least 20 seconds. It is a good idea to relax the eyes by looking at Nature, what is good for mental health is also good for the eyes. Move the eyes to the left the right and draw large imaginary visualization circles with the eyes, large squares, for 30 seconds as away to exercize the eyes. Closing the eyes and concentrating on an imaginary visualization candle is a form of meditation that is also good for resting the eyes. 

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Climate Reset Berlin, a coalition of climate change action groups, has introduced a referendum that brings forward climate change action goals put off till 2045. The referendum makes 2030 the new target date for 95% reduction in carbon emissions consistent with the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement. Berlin is 80% dependent on fossil fuels for energy needs in 2023. Proponents say there is great potential for wind and solar energy. Opponents say that it is too costly and will take up funds now allocated for childcare and education. The outgoing Greens SPD government of Berlin opposes it, as does the new expected CDU government. The Green senator for Berlin supports it, as do other private groups. Buildings need to be renovated and private transport curbed.

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Disagreements on how much to fund an education recovery effort in the Toy government of Mr. Johnson. Sir Kevan Collins resigns after his program designed to help students recover from the loss of study time from coronavirus at a cost of 15 billion pounds is rejected. The government plans to put 1.4 billion pounds, which Sir Collins calls too narrow, and not doing enough, delivering too slowly. Sir Collins had hoped to give 6th Formers and extra 100 hours of schooling and help prepare students for GCSE exams. He would have extended school time by 30 minutes in 2022 and setup a 35 hour week for students.

Netherlands plans to spend 2500 pounds per student, the US 1600 pounds per student, the UK 50 pounds per student. 

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The attempted shooting of De Gaulle's car was part of the OAS effort to prevent the granting of independence to Algeria, a course of action that De Gaulle like Lincoln for emancipation relentlessly pursued, in this case for North African Arabs colonized by the French. De Gaulle also modernized French agriculture and changed the living conditions of French farmers that had not changed for centuries with poor conditions. It was during this period under De Gaulle that France emerged as a truly modern nation with the infrastructure built under De Gaulle and continued by his assistants who succeeded to the presidency. This report says 30 attempts were made on his life and it shows the resilience and character of the leadership in the early post war period.

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One survey in 2021 shows that about 73% of workers in all age groups are feeling burnout since the pandemic started says this BBC report on Work Life. The situation is the worst for young workers in their twenties who have the least work capital and the most work. For these Generation Z workers the burnout rate is higher at 80%. This presents a huge problem for mental health. Across all age groups volume of work is up over 50% with the highest for young inexperienced workers who are pushed to the limit, working late hours and not able to say no. 

This situation shows that so much has happened during the pandemic that mental health is a major priority in 2022 and beyond.

 

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Heavy foreign borrowings from Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, help sustain the Turkish economy in 2022. Private companies reduce their non lira borrowings after dollar borrowings became unsustainable. Inflation reaching a high of 80% is likely to ease in 2023 to 20% in line with global inflation in other countries. Turkey's current account deficit is about 0.3 billion in November, down from 2.9 billion the prior month as global energy prices decline. The dollar is coming down from its peak and central banks are expected to bring rates down with slowing inflation. The net international reserves have reached $23 billion. A 60% drop in the currency has increased tourism revenues. Mr. Erdogan is likely to run again for president in 2023, which will be his last run for the presidency. 

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Jeff Sommer in the NYT says no one could have predicted the pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He says forecasts for the stock and bond markets over the short term for 2023 are useless. Most have missed by 12- 25% he says and compares this to forecasts that predict a cold day when it is going to be 60 degrees outside. Sommer's says in today's situation only long term horizons are relevant, looking and saving, investing over a ten year period. He cites Vanguard's approach of looking at the long term horizon in its investment outlook over 10 years on the Vanguard site as the right one based on the experience of the last 20-30 years and historical experience over long periods.

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Tankersley of The Washington Post looks at a 30 page analysis of Trump's economic policies by his two senior advisors Peter Navarro, UC Irvine economist, and Wilbur Ross. In it the authors say Trump will be able to increase economic growth from 2% to 3.5% by providing a better and even playing field for American companies in the way they compete with other countries. It means the renegotiation of treaties with these countries will lead to better trade for the U.S. This would include they say the U.S. saying it would leave the WTO unless changes are made. The authors say that with Trump in the White House unfair trading practices would end, instead of it leading to trade wars as some other economists believe.

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It was Doctors, the Bankers, Consultants, now it is Law Firms imposing outrageous costs on the economy. Law firms indirectly adding to the cost of doing business with outrageous per hour rates ($2500 per hour?), costs sure to be transferred to consumers and buyers in today's Cost of Living crisis. Another instance of price gouging in a different context that pushes up costs and prices, something Harris talked about in the debate.

There is a 30% jump in lawyer fees from $190,000 to $250,000, for junior associates since 2018. It is just not sustainable. Part of the problem is  hourly rates and companies such as Shell are looking for alternative arrangements- ones that make the final costs predictable and transparent.

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Toyota revised its profit forecast downward for the current fiscal year ending March 2012, by 54%. The revised forecast is for net profit of 180 billion yen ($2.32 billion), down 54% from a prior estimate made in August, and half the 408 billion yen earned the prior year. The strength of the yen has impacted the price competitiveness of Japanese exports. It has also affected the value of overseas profits on Japanese financial statements. Toyota makes half of its global production in Japan compared to a third for Honda and Nissan, leaving it more vulnerable to the value of the yen. Also affecting Toyota are the severe floods in Thailand which led to shortage of parts from component suppliers in Thailand. The new forecast uses an exchange rate of 77 yen to the dollar and 105 yen to the euro. That compares with the exchange rate for the prior fiscal year of 86 yen to the dollar and 113 yen to the euro.

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Women in rural Zambia celebrate when they get new bicycles. Things that one takes for granted in urban areas in Zambia is really a struggle in rural areas. About 80% of Zambia's people live in villages about 2 kilometers from a road. Bicycles help people to cover a distance of several kilometers easily. A woman in Zambia uses it to make the trip of 7 kilometres with a milk delivery in half the time. She makes more money making this delivery by bicycle. For her this is making a world of difference. With bicycles come mobile phones shrinking the distance and making communication possible in areas that have struggled with ease of living for hundreds of years.

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Next to what Brzail is doing under President Da Silva with a program to aid the poorest in Brazil pay for food and necessities, this program is a commendable one and could turn ou to be a big achievement as it becomes popular with the poorest people in India. It certainly will be true over the next 5-10 years that by improving the conditions of the poorest 300 million people it will go a long way towards creating and enhancing the conditions throughout India, and bring millions of people who could become new markets for the nation's consumer and other companies. The task of providing better nutrition along with hospital care could also be tackled with similar programs and also schooling so that the lives of the next generation can be significantly improved and children do not have to live the drudgery and difficult lives of their parents who are struggling for a living. Important thing is for a small cost of $1 billion people it carries the whole nation and its poorest 300 million people forward....

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The vast Permian Shale Basin is becoming more of a factory with disciplined large producers in 2024. More than one third of the production is from three producers Diamondback Energy, Exxon Mobil and Occidental compared to 30 mostly wildcatter companies in 2014. These companies are not likely to increase production in the way smaller companies did over the last decade when they increased production by over 10%. 

Over the period from now 2024 to 2030 production increases will be limited by geologic limits, older shale fields. Most onshore basins outside of Permian in the US are actually declining in production and production there is at about 4 million barrels a day.

Total production is about 13 million barrels of oil a day under president Biden and will only reach 13.5 million barrels a day by 2030. Employment 200,000 at the peak in 2014 is now a little over 100,000.

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The U.S. is moving quickly to gain access to an effective vaccine by September or October 2020. It is doing this by providing the money for companies to conduct trials and ramp up manufacturing in a big way. The U.S. government has agreed to give Astra Zeneca upto $1.2 billion to secure supply of a Oxford University developed vaccine which could be ready by October. Astra Zeneca has agreed to make the vaccine under a licensing deal with Oxford University's Jenner Institute and promised it will not make a profit on this. U.S. has also given $483 million to Moderna in Cambridge, Massachusetts, for making the vaccine. Both Oxford and Moderna are testing the vaccine on humans. Oxford uses a tested older technology, Moderna a new technology. UK has given Astra Zeneca $79 million to secure 100 million doses of the vaccine, with 30 million ready by September. Oxford is also in negotiations with Gavi the international vaccine alliance, and Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations on further deals to boost production. Oxford began a 1100 person study in April, and is  doing a 5000 person trial in late May.  ...

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Lilith Verstrynge, former party secretary of Podemos, and daughter of a Belgian politician, describes the rise and collapse of Podemos, a popular party in Spain in a coalition duringthe Covid years with the Socialist party in Spain led by Pedro Sanchez. A 31 year old who now teaches in Paris describes Podemos- a social movement based on online support and no organization under Pablo Iglesias which collapses in Spain by 2024. Podemos or translated into Spanish as "We Can" emerged from the 2009 banking speculation caused financial crisis and the years that followed with the Eurozone financial crisis which entangled the economies of Spain, Ireland, UK, Greece, and other nations in the European Union. As he crisis receded and with action taken under Pedro Sanchez's Socialist government in the areas of housing, support services, and the economy, as the economy improved the movement gradually fizzled out. Under Sanchez the Catalonian independence movement also receded with elections in Barcelona and Catalonia brining to power a socialist government. This period in Spanish political upheaval is described by Verstrynge in The Guardian, who retired from politics in her early 30's as a result. She says without any organizational structure to support such online movements once the initial surge in interest is passed there is no way to sustain it. ...

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Even though E-Bay executive Meg Whitman has outspent Jerry Brown by $130 million, much of it her own money, she trails Brown by 8 percentage points in an Oct 20 survey by nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. That survey showed Brown leading 44% to 36%. She had a hard line stance on illegal immigration in her ads for the primaries, which changed later in the campaign to attract Latino voters. Her campaign crafted by consultants focussed on three themes- cut government spending, create jobs, and fix education. Brown is a former Governor of the state and current attorney general. Experts attribute the lagging Whitman campaign to voters leery of 2 kinds of politicians- the first is the career politician and the second is longtime corporate executives. In other polls Senator Barbara Boxer is leading Ms Fiorina, former HP executive, 43% to 38%. Because of last minute surges in the polls, a lead of 8 points or more is considered necessary for the governor's campaign, for a candidate to win. Another factor is that Governor Schwarznegger came in with no political experience, and was beset by the state's fiscal troubles, with his poll ratings now at 28%....