LyrArc Article Gist
Jeff Sommer in the NYT says no one could have predicted the pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He says forecasts for the stock and bond markets over the short term for 2023 are useless. Most have missed by 12- 25% he says and compares this to forecasts that predict a cold day when it is going to be 60 degrees outside. Sommer's says in today's situation only long term horizons are relevant, looking and saving, investing over a ten year period. He cites Vanguard's approach of looking at the long term horizon in its investment outlook over 10 years on the Vanguard site as the right one based on the experience of the last 20-30 years and historical experience over long periods.

LyrArc Article Gist
The rate of people quitting their jobs to look for new careers increased in 2021. The rate of teachers quitting in education rose more than in any other industry in 2021, the WSJ reports. Many teachers were exhausted from the teaching under covid-19 protocols. The Great Resignation is then a process of shifting careers that has affected education in a big way. On Linked-In the share of teachers on the site who left for a new career increased by 62% in 2021. Many of them are going into careers in sales, IT services, consulting, hospitals and software development. There is huge potential for increase in pay and career potential. Teacher's ability to absorb and transmit information, to mutitask and manage stress make them attractive for companies.

LyrArc Article Gist
Sprint's problems are that it needs to raise capital for higher capital expenditures at a time when raising capital will be difficult. The additional capital expenditures result from the need to develop reliable state of the art 4G networks to compete with Verizon and AT&T. This is partly a result of poor decisions in choosing partners for 4G services.

LyrArc Article Gist
A charm offensive is under way following the New York primary led by Mr. Manafort to show the Republican National Committee (RNC) Trump is just "playing a part" and has another demeanor. Wiley points out that Trump would appeal to traditionally Democratic states in the midwest that have working class Reagan Democrats. This follows a parallel effort by Trump presenting an election narrative to draw voters by saying that the system is rigged, first banking, then trade, now the way delegates are chosen, to increase voter support at a time when voters have genuine concerns. Yet the fact that Trump won 90% of the delegates with 60% of the vote in New York, provides proof that it is not, says Vince Preibus, RNC chairman. Others point to the splintered vote in the early primaries as disproportionately benefitting Trump, as well as the media coverage for sensational statements, and jingoistic talk about China, Mexico and Muslims.

LyrArc Article Gist
Currently Asian-Americans make up 62% of students at top high schools in New York. Mayor Blasio aims to give 20% of the seats to students who almost reach the qualifying scores on an entrance exam for Stuyvesant and seven other specialized high schools. Under Blasio's plan Discovery program for economically disadvantaged students would get 800 of the 4000 specialized high school seats for ninth graders in fall 2020 up from 250. 

Another view is presented by Parenting While Black organization of low income parents and children, who say that more important is to improve the quality of education for the city's 1.1 million students and start at the early grades. They see the high school debate for these 7 specialized schools as taking attention from the real problem to focus on s small sliver of students. The mass of students, the vast majority, they say are left to dangle in the wind.

LyrArc Article Gist
The debate in parliament on the no-confidence motion against the Modi government in India. The speech made by Congress president Rahul Gandhi criticized the Modi government for crony capitalism and the lack of transparency in the Rafale aircraft deal. The motion of no-confidence was initiated by the TDP, Telegu Desam Party in the state of Andhra Pradesh.  It was defeated with 325 against and 126 in favor of which the Congress party had 65.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. China trade and tech rivalry continues with the arrest in Canada of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou on U.S. request for extradition. The reason appears to be a violation of U.S. sanctions against Iran. President Xi has taken steps in the past to protect Huawei, as a top priority, scuttling Qualcomm's acquisition of NXP Semiconductors NV. The merger with the Dutch Company would have threatened Huawei in its race to dominate 5G networks.

LyrArc Article Gist
Shinjiro Koizumi 44 years, and Sanae Takaichi 64 years, contending for leadership of LDP and prime minister in Japan in September 2025, as prime minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns. LDP in Japan faces problems from aging voter base and Japan's voter shifts to nationalist parties. Ishiba faced problems rallying voters as the LDP was seen as having mostly older faces, trade issues with the US, and the cost of living economic security issues.

LyrArc Article Gist
Missouri and Alaska pass minimum wage laws to raise he wage from $12 to $15. California- support for minimum wage of $18 dropped from 67% in 2023 to 44% and may not pass.

LyrArc Article Gist
With Ukraine unwilling to give up the Donbass and Germany/France/UK wanting to prevent Russian favored deal adverse for Europe, US focus on Monroe Doctrine and western hemisphere, Ukraine Russia war is likely to drag on. This is what one sees in Merz, Zelensky, Rubio speeches at the Munich Security conference. In 2026 Germany+ (that includes France and the UK) does not see it in the interests of Europe to allow a Ukraine capitulation to Russian attacks and Germany has already allocated funds to rebuild its military to prevent this from affecting Germany+ interests in Europe. Even though the winter attacks on Ukraine grid and electricity infrastructure leaves Kviv and other cities in a dire situation it appears that without the 20 year security guarantee or something solid Ukraine is not willing to sign an agreement which it fears Russia could turn around and start the war again. Germany+ which is the position of the major parties in Germany 60-70 % of voters for the SDP, CDU, Greens and others except AfD with 20-30% of voters. (AfD may have reached a ceiling as CDU under Merz is tough on migrants). Which means about 70% of Germans will support a policy of joining UK and France in resisting Russian attacks. Russia may have lost so much in manpower may see the war as a vindication only if it can hold onto the Donbass which may make it harder to reach a deal. Zelensky says Ukrainians live there and is unwilling to leave the Donbas region. The net result is that Germany+ and Ukraine are not likely to concede ground, the US reluctant to commit to 20 year security condition for Ukraine as it focuses energy on the western hemisphere and the fentanyl, drug traffickers in Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia, and their support structures in Cuba, in addition to Iran and China's plan on Taiwan sees limits to what it can do beyond limiting oil's funding the Russian attacks. It is amisrepresentation to say that the US is the cause, as everything changed the moment China became an industrial power with the help of US business interests and returned to its own story of being subject to British and Japanese incursions in the 19th and 20th centuries, and sensing that it is an industrial power in its own right by 2020 and insisting on framing its own policy in the world. Europe always had its own narrative since 1600 long before the US became an industrial power under Teddy Roosevelt in 1904. In that narrative which now plays out again different European powers band together to prevent any dominant power in Europe (Russia in 2026) from gaining dominance. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
NTT Japan's largest telecommunications company plans to pay a 41% premium on shares of the part of Docomo that it does not own. NTT owns 66% of shares of Docomo. The $40 billion deal is designed to speed up decision making and compete in world markets. New prime minister Yoshihide Suga is pushing for lowering of high mobile phone service prices. Japanese government owns one third of NTT. This move will enable NTT Docomo to act on this important step of lowering prices as Japan reorganizes its business sector so that it can compete effectively with China and the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
About 60% of the tonnage in fishing in British waters is taken by EU fishermen. Britain want to be compensated for this and have annual negotiations on fishing every year to allocate fishing rights by each kind of fish such as cod or herring. Fishing communities on the coast were major supporters of Brexit. For French president Macron it is important to win votes of fishing communities along its coastline in the next election. The European Union wants to have a 10 year period of transition and only pay 18% of the fishing taken by EU fishermen in British waters, and no annual talks. 

LyrArc Article Gist
As China shifts from an economy that was built on low cost manufacturing in factories that polluted the skies and water, to an advanced economy with modern factories the nature of industry has changed. More recently the focus is on advanced technologies and increased productivity. As a result the hours worked are declining every year with modernization following the trend in western countries. There is also high unemployment of about 20% for young people. High university enrollment of about 60% means many graduates will have a hard time finding jobs in a slowing economy in 2023. With it comes a shift in attitudes to work.

LyrArc Article Gist
This Perspectives piece in the DW.com says the German government has little option but to support the federal Leipzig court ruling in favor of banning diesel cars in cities with high pollution levels. It says the best days of diesel engine cars are over in Germany and in Europe. The downward trend after the VW diesel emissions scandal affected public confidence, the pressure from the European Union with the strict Euro 66 standards and the failure of many German cities to meet the EU nitrogen oxide standards, and this ruling by the courts, all mean says DW.com that the best days of diesel are over.

LyrArc Article Gist
Argentina's offer for restructuring $66 billion of debt to foreign bondholders is rejected by the group. Argentina originally offered 39 cents to the dollar and 3 year grace period. The new offer was raised to one year grace period and 53.5 cents to the dollar. The sources close to the negotiation say the foreign bondholders want 56.5 cents to the dollar and no grace period with bond interest starting in September. Argentina has $324 billion in debt or about 90% of its GDP a result of mismanagement of the finances happening in recurring fashion in the country, several times in the last 4 decades.

LyrArc Article Gist
Retired General James Mattis headed Central Command under the Obama administration. He is the new U.S. Defense Secretary. Mattis is critical but has said "there is no going back" on the Iran nuclear agreement. Mattis also has said any U.S. president regarding allies as "freeloaders" is nuts. This is different from Trump's campaign speeches, Yet the trait of Mattis in Afghanistan and Iraq duty is that of aggressively following the enemy, he has been called "Mad Dog,"  and the 66 year old officer brings deep battlefield experience, is highly regarded in the military ranks, and had friction with the Obama administration- traits for which he is well regarded by Trump.

LyrArc Article Gist
In this interview with Herndon of the NYT Bernie Sanders refutes the labels "progressive" or "left" and says it is simply about policy that benefits the workers and families that make up the vast majority of this Nation. Sanders says 60% of workers are living from paycheck to paycheck. The vast majority of people 60-70% support Medicare for All, improvements in Social Security, cutting pharmaceutical costs, and tution support to make higher education accessible to all. Why he asks do workers support Trump? He says it is because the truth is that the Democratic party has abandoned its roots. He does not go into this, yet it can be said that the rise of the Tech industry in the last two decades has led to tech billionaires and business people coopting the Democratic party for their agenda. In the last year of the Obama administration it was evident that Rural America and people who represent rural America such as Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack of Iowa felt ignored while Obama spent more time with tech and internet business people. Former president Trump simply stepped into this void as Democrats failed to turn up for rural America. President Biden has turned things around by making Tom Vilsack an important part of his administrations with the president listening to  him and others speaking for rural America. The passion with which Senator Pat Schumer talked recently on CBS Face the Nation about bringing broadband to rural America shows how Biden and Harris, Harris and Walz see Rural America. This Democratic ticket is fighting for Rural America every step of the way to bring hope and a better life to Rural America. Sanders reminds people of FDR in 1936 after four years of fighting the Depression and improving lives there was so much that needed to be done. It is the same today and Sanders is wading into this fight with Harris and Walz in the same way as FDR did in 1936. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Diesel prices are regulated and subsidized by the Indian government, but gasoline prices are deregulated since 2010, resulting in gasoline costing 64% more than diesel in India. As a result buyers are staying away from gasoline cars and shifting to diesel creating distortions in demand. The government is considering a tax on diesel cars and SUV's of between $3000 to $4600 to correct the distortion. Because lower income people woud be hurt by increasing the price of diesel it continues to be subsidized. Because of the uncertainty car manufacturers are shutting down production to reduce growing inventory of gasoline vehicles. High interest rates of 12% on car loans also reduces demand. Suzuki Maruti sales declined 6% in May 2012, Ford and GM showed sales declines of 14% and 20%. The year ending March 2012 shows Indian car sales growing only slightly by 2.2% to 2 million cars. Sales were rising at 29% only about a year ago. Gasoline costs 68 rupees a liter in New Delhi after a 11.5% increase in May 2012, compared to 41 rupees per liter for diesel. The increase in gasoline prices is a result of the government having difficulty paying the rising imports of oil, costing $141 billion for the year ending March 31, 2012. The sharp slowdown in the car industry and the problems in the energy sector have affected India's growth rate....

LyrArc Article Gist
To see the changes in East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall one has to go beyond the larger cities like Dresden, Leipzig, and Berlin. One has to go to the smaller towns, which are rapidly losing population as young people leave for jobs in the western part of Germany. The government says the gap is closing between the western and eastern parts of Germany. It says $60 billion was spent on infrastructure and to support businesses in 2006-2008. ANd economic activity per person is now up to 71% of western part of Germany from 67% in this last decade. But look at the smaller towns in the east and you see young people leaving, the average of the people going way up, the population dropping, and with this unneeded or abandoned apartment buildings have to be bulldozed. Unemployment is double that in the west. In some areas the number of women between 20and 30 has dropped 30%. About 1.7 million people or 12% of the population has left East Germany since the fall of the Berlin Wall. About 2000 schools have closed because of ascarcity of children. The demographics were such in the early years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, that for a number of years East Germans stopped having children, says the Director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development....

LyrArc Article Gist
After 5 years of construction the new Daxing international airport opens in Beijing. It cost 61 billion dollars. It has 4 runways, and is likely to handle 72 million passengers a year by 2025. The new airport is twice the distance from the city centre than the earlier airport. China's aviation sector has a reputation for delays from overcapacity and from military use of airspace. The new airport is expected to provide an improvement in travel.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tim Cook talks to developers at a world wide virtual and in person event. 

Apple will introduce a new 13.5 inch Macbook Air with a inhouse M2 chip for $1195 on sale in July 2022. A new 13 inch Macbook Pro will also be made.

The new iPhone with 5G capability had sales of $191 billion in fiscal year ending in September 2021. iPhone sales up 6.2% in 2022 vs 39% in 2021 when the pandemic led to remote work on Apple and other PC's.

App store and ad sales up by 17% to $80 billion, larger than Mac and iPad sales. 

Apple Pay will break payments into 4 installments as an option. Messages will have an unsend or edit option for 15 minutes.

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany's and the European Union's oil imports from Russia are undermining western sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air says Russia earned 63 billion from fossil fuel exports since Feb. 24. Germany paid 9.1 billion euros for fossil fuel deliveries in the two months since the Russian invasion. Italy is next at 6.9 billion euros in oil and gas imports from Russia. China is third with 6.7 billion euros of oil and gas imports from Russia. The European Union is the main importer accounting for 71% or 44 billion euros of Russian oil and gas. CREA has found that western oil companies continue to do high volumes of trade in fossil fuels with Russia. This includes Total. BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil.

LyrArc Article Gist
The battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the North have 83% white voters in a national election compared to 69% nationwide. It is with white voters that Mr. Biden is doing better and according to three sets of data, and this could make it possible for Mr. Biden to win these states again in 2024. In Georgia and Arizona nonwhite vote remains sturdy for Biden, while the states are moving leftward, and this could tilt these states towards Biden, says this report. Biden is losing some support among nonwhite voters but this is happening in states such as New York where Democrats would have a smaller margin in their win. These changes are observed by taking into account the 2020 national and midterms results and combining them with insights from NYT/Siena polls in recent months.

LyrArc Article Gist
It is well known that rail has a smaller carbon footprint than automobile travel. The why is Amtrak suffering neglect for so long in the US when it is well funded in Europe, Japan, China and India? It is because of deliberate neglect by many administrations and by the US Congress through lack of funding for new trains, new technological investment, and investing in its infrastructure. President Biden is changing all this with investment of about $66 billion. He used the Acela fast train service for decades from Washington DC to Wilmington. WSJ shows how a new Amtrak is emerging with many new routes, new stations,  and none of the delays that freight railroads imposed on Amtrak for decades. Amtrak is now fighting the freight railroads in court and has the support of the Biden administration.

LyrArc Article Gist
Leaders of Africa's development banks and the president of Kenya make this plea for adjustments on debt repayments and a moratorium on debt servicing before the annual conference of global finance at Marrakech, Morocco. The problems are: a 35% increase in debt repayments to $62 billion for Africa with increase in interest rates. The total debt of Africa now at $1.8 trillion. The neglect of education and health when countries such as Zambia and Ghana default on debt. The complexity of debt renegotiation with 40% of debt in private hands and 31% with China which is not part of Paris Club. It took 3 years for Zambia to negotiate its way out. And 23 nations in Africa are near default out of the 52 in the world facing this situation.