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Wages have gone up less in Europe than in the US. In the last 3 months of 2021 wages were up 1.2 % and inflation was up 4.7% for a fall in real wages of 3.1%, which has accelerated since then with the war in Ukraine and shortages of energy and food supplies. A YouGov poll shows that 15% of Germans cannot afford basic necessities and 53% are concerned about rising prices. Because basic things like food and energy where prices have gone up the most also take up large portions of the budget for lower income households. In Germany some unions are giving one off payments for energy bills and other costs to workers till negotiations lead to a settlement on increasing wages. The situation is similar in Greece, Italy and France. In Greece the government has given $3 billion for subsidies on gas and electric bills. Elections are now focusing on cost of living as in France where the second and third place winners in the first round Le Pen and Melenchon together took about half of the vote. ...

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Kamala Harris and Tim Walz pick up support in the swing states from Michigan and Wisconsin to Minnesota and New Hampshire, from Georgia to North Carolina, and from Arizona to Nevada in different regions of the US. This happens through directly talking to the public one on one and with the unions and workers, workers families. The media's tolerance for misinformation and for not talking seriously about issues such as climate change, on whose side Harris and Walz are - that of workers and families- on the investments in manufacturing and infrastructure, investment in rural areas, that have changed the potential of the US economy, is amazing, simply amazing not to think about its credibility with the public. And the social media's appetite for misinformation as happened this week in Britain with the riots in the north and Prime minister Starmer calling them out - "social media is not a law-free zone" - shows the extent of the challenge the Nation faces. ...

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US president Biden's State of the Union speech on Tuesday Feb. 7 is much awaited as he prepares for the 2024 election. Much of the major legislation including the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act had bipartisan support. America is back and building better, and Biden hopes to continue his efforts in this direction, even as he faces a divided US Congress. Biden will also want to show the vigorous style of his leadership as America recovers its position in manufacturing, research and development, improves the lives of working families and tackles inflation.

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With the partisan politics in the U.S. Congress exceeding anything that happened before, both sides Republican and Democrats, are rarely talking to each other. During the many hours of impeachment debate in the U.S. Senate, Chief Justice Roberts had to call for civil discourse to be maintained. Republicans have remained loyal to the president throughout the debates. Following the rejection of impeachment in the vote on party lines, president Trump heads into the State of the Union speech to Congress on February 4th in which he will have the opportunity to defend his administration's record.

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With occupancy declining to below 76% on many of the downtown San Francisco buildings the value of this is decliining fast. The Embarcadero Center that once defined the downtown area is now on sale for $90 million, according to the WSJ report, down from $245 million that was paid for it in 2018. Owners of these office buildings in San Francisco are liable for payments on $12 billion in bonds, according to S&P Global. Half of the stores in the Union shopping district have closed and Amtrak ridership is down 61% over 2019.

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Paul Hannon in the WSJ tells the story of how the Swiss now support the 15% corporate minimum tax. 78% of Swiss voters support the new tax in a referendum. Switzerland is now trying to change the bad reputation it had gained as a place companies moved to shift profits to low income tax locations. Switzerland now joins 35 countries implementing the 15% corporate tax in 2024 and 2025, including the 27 members of the European Union, Australia, Japan, France and the UK. 15 other countries say they will do so in that time frame.

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The supplies of natural gas are making a huge improvement in 2023 over 2022 when the war with Ukraine led to the European Union scrambling to replace Russian supplies with LNG imports. The higher temperatures this past winter in the US and Europe have left ample supplies in storage with the unused natural gas adding to supply. The result prices are now half of what they were last summer bringing relief to people for higher energy prices. Summer prices for natural gas are expected to be about $2.84 per million BTU's.

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Civility and civic responsibilities to get work done for constituents that motivates California Republican Doug LaMalfa  is shown here in his three minute conversation with Biden after the State of the Union address late Thursday night. La Malfa is head of the House Agriculture forestry subcommittee. His task to get the US Frrest Service to speed up permits for harvesting timber. "We gotta cut some trees," he told Biden says this report in the Washington Post. Soon Interior Department officials were reaching out to La Malfa's aides. And another American tradition was set to work.

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There is widespread belief in representative democracies that officials are out of touch, and that political parties do not represent the people. Pew Research also shows that about 50% of people believe that more women, more young people and people from poor backgrounds can make a positive difference. And about a third of people feel that business people, religious figures, and labor union members could make things worse. The intuitive sense of the US and also for Mexico and Canada is that more young people, more women and more people of poor backgrounds are needed for positive difference.

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Harris-Walz campaign in Arizona and Nevada August 10, 2024. Harris gains the support of the Culinary Workers union with 60,000 members. 

League of United Latin American Citizens (Lulac), the oldest Latino civil rights group, which usually stays neutral stepped in to endorse the Democratic ticket.

“The politics of hate-mongering and scapegoating Latinos and immigrants must be stopped,” said Domingo Garcia, chairman of Lulac Adelante Pac, in a statement.

“Latinos understand how much is at stake in this election, for not only our community but our democracy.”

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Kirill Dmitriev who has a BA from Stanford and MBA from Harvard was educated in the US and worked for McKinsey and Goldman Sachs. He worked for the US-Russia Investment Fund funded by USAID during the early years in 1990's after fall of Soviet Union. And helped sell off media properties bought at that time for that Fund to the new government. He is now the head of the Russian Sovereign Fund.

He will be a key negotiator to be similar to Witkoff in the Trump team who has a background in real estate deals. 

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 DJT calls the 155 billion euro deficit the US has with the European Union "an atrocity," saying they treated us badly. 

DJT says-

"It might happen with that, but it will definitely happen with the European Union. I can tell you that, because they've really taken advantage, you know, we have over $300 billion deficit.”

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The European Commission says that 70% of adults in the European Union have now been vaccinated with 2 doses, about 256 million people in 27 countries. In the US this figure is 63% for persons 18 and over, in UK 77% are fully vaccinated for 16 and over. There is a wide variation between countries in Europe- with Portugal at the high end and Bulgaria at the low end for vaccination.

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In a meeting charged with emotion Theresa May says she will not run again as a way to get support from a pro-Brexit MP's faction in her party that includes Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Moog. Some members of this faction support exiting the EU even if it means no-deal is reached on future relations between the EU and Britain including agreement on membership in the customs union.

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French concerns voiced by Macron that Britain should not gain unfair competitive advantage by not adhering to EU environment and other rules after leaving the European Union. Macron's shows willingness to take the blame for failure in Brexit talks because of French demands.

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This editorial in the NYT says it is time for both sides to take a deep breath and agree on extending the deadline of March 29, 2019 for Britain to leave the European Union. More time is needed to work out deep and contentious issues. 

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Fearing retaliation by Chinese regulators, US executives are silent on trade issues. As a result the issue of wind energy subsidies to Chinese manufacturers was brought up not by GE, a manufacturer of wind turbines, but by the United Steelworkers Union in the US. The US filed a WTO complaint in this matter based on the US Steelworkers petition. GE has stayed silent in this matter in deference to Chinese regulators. Only Solar World, a German company, has stepped forward to strongly endorse the investigation. Solar World has manufacturing sites in Oregon and China, but no plants in China.

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BBC reports on Iran protests January 2026. Protests happened with students, with women periodically over the last two decades. Iran over the years since the monarchy in the 1880's and democratic movements (parliaments) in 1900's, monarchy in the 1930's and 1960's, socialist governments 1960's. Cold War and restored monarchy in 1970's, religious theocracy 1990's till today has gone through many different governments. It was part of the British Empire (that included India/Pakistan) and Russia's buffer region in the 18th and 19th century.  After economic sanctions from US and Europe the economy depends on sanctioned oil exports. Its defense operations divert much of the funding from oil based resources away from economic development . Much of that was a result of the anticolonial socialist ideologies that spread from North Africa (Algeria, Egypt) to Iraq and Syria that led to wars in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan- which also led to Iraq's version the Baathist ideology invading Iran. Russia and the US have extracted themselves at much loss from these conflicts by 2025 and are posed at a historic rapprochement in relations. For Iran there is today no danger from the region or from European powers, and like the US the people and the country are asking questions about the economic and living conditions from so much in resources now diverted to external conflicts- like the US the people in the region of Iran and the entire Middle East apart from a few small oil rich regions with a tiny part of the overall population- maybe 5% in Qatar and UAE, and Saudi- feel the impact of little investment in rapid economic development of the overall region. A region with a population close to the European Union of 500 million but a tiny fraction of economic development investment for the vast majority of people in Egypt and other parts of North Africa and regions of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Sudan. Most of the investment of $1 trillion is concentrated in the 10% of the population of over 500 million people in oil resource Saudi Arabia, UAE/Qatar monarchies, the rest languishing in war, and now meaningless- in terms of living standards- of anticolonial ideologies or militant religious ideologies, or internecine/ethnic conflict. ...

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Much of the reward for Labour goes to Health, Nutrition (food choices), and Education (schooling choices for children). This is the backbone for any Nation that is going to be strong and have a good future. Yet economic structures in 2026 and for decades has swung too far in one direction away from Labour and more and more for Capital, creating grave risks for the Nation, and setting the US as the wrong role model. Labour and Capital in 1980 vs 2026- increasing reward for Capital from 7% to 12% of GDI decreasing for Labour 58% to 52% in same period. In some areas this is not so because other regions have set their own priorities and this is a good thing Europe has a strong and fair access healthcare system, India has a strong and fair access pharmaceuticals healthcare system, which act as role models for the US. In 2026 RFK Jr, Dr. Oz at HHS and DJT are focused on getting US pharmaceuticals prices down to levels in the European Union. The real dangers of the skewing in the direction of Capital of rewards is creating a class that is not sensitive to the lives of ordinary people resulting in fracturing of society. Something like that happened in 1600-1800 in India and China leading to the disintegration of society and becoming overcome by foreign European powers which had more dynamic societies from the bottom up that led to discoveries in science leading to the industrial revolution. One detects something like this happening by accident by poor governance and bad decisions for wars (Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama), and the same administrations pushed by bad advice from economists to ship the productive manufacturing resources of the Nation to China. If not reversed it would lead to the kind of decline Asia witnessed after 1600- hitting all classes of society and destroying the economic structures as foreign powers get the upper hand. The surrendering of research labs and higher education in advanced science fields to foreigners at US and European universities poses similar risks as fractured society with Capital dominant and unaware of the risks. Such societies have less perception of such risk than a bottom up built social, economic and political framework with large numbers of aspiring local citizens seeking these positions in science and technology in the Nation. ...

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President Calderon takes over Luz yFuerza, Mexico's major power company serving Mexico City. This sets up aconfrontation with the SME union which by having extra workers and higher benefits raises the costs to about twice what the company earns. Money the government uses to support the electricity companyis now the same as what it uses in an antipoverty program for 25 million Mexicans and twice that it uses to support auniversity system for 350,000 students.

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Prime minister Manuel Valls pushes a highly unpopular labor law through parliament without a vote.  About 70% of people are shown opposed to it in recent polls, and it has led to months of street protests. It has also split the ruling Socialist Party ahead of elections in 2017. The law makes it easier to fire and hire workers in the interests of growth and job creation, but unions say it will not increase economic growth and withdraws worker protection.

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Slow progress of vaccination drives in the European Union has led to rising frustration. This is leading to action from the EU. The EU and Italy have halted export of 250,000 doses of vaccine bottled at a factory in Rome, that is part of the Astra Zeneca supply chain.

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People in the Midlands and poorer regions of Britain think it is the European Union's fault that the regions are lagging behind. They voted for Leave with this perception though as experts point out closing down of plants in the region as in Sunderland could hurt employment.

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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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Labor unions and some of his political allies propose increasing taxes on the rich to pay for additional stimulus that would ease the effects of the economic downturn in France as the jobless rate rises.