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South Korean president Moon Jae-in sees his popularity drop from a high of 83% with the outreach efforts to North Korea, to 60% by July 2018 with concern about the economy. Presdent Moon-Jae-in made a campaign pledge for $9 minimum wage by 2020. Recently the minimum wage was increased by about 11% for 2019 after a 16% increase for 2018. Job growth slowed from 836,000 in first 6 months of 2018 compared to 2.15 million for the prior year.

Critics say the increase affects mom and pop small business and results in slower job growth. Youth unemployment is at 9%.

Moon's 83% approval rating is still unusual for South Korea. The opposition conservative party has only 14% approval rating and the previous democratically elected presidents left office with 30% approval.

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Gerald Seib of the WSJ says don't be shocked at the resignation of Mattis at Defense after the withdrawal decisions on Afghanistan and Syria by president Trump, the shutdown of the government in Washington D.C. over Mr. Trump's demandsfor $5 billion to build the border wall with Mexico on grounds of security. As president Trump prepares his reelection bid he is going back to his own sense of what the public and his support base want. The border wall issue was popular with his supporters, and by withdrawing troops from Afghanistan Trump is lowering the troops number to below that when president Obama left office, for a war that is unpopular in the country. Mattis is looking at it from the perspective of sacrifices made in Afghanistan by U.S. soldiers. 

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David Reilly points to the growth rates used by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office as too optimistic in the light of recent figures from the Commerce Department that show growth was only 0.8% for the first half. The CBO deficit reduction projections are based on a 3.1% U.S. growth rate for 2011 and 2.8% in 2012. This means the $1 trillion in initial spending cuts under the August 2 Debt Ceiling and Deficit Deal are likely to have a negligible impact on U.S. deficit reduction. Bank of America's revised forecast is for 1.7% U.S. growth for 2011 and 2.3% for 2012. The Office of Managemet and Budget estimates that a one percentage point drop in growth in the forecast for 2011 can lead to a $750 billion increase in cumulative deficits over 10 years. Former Treasury Secretary Summers also points this out in his op-ed piece in the Washington Post, August 2, 2011.

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The dangers of a second term as president in the history of the U.S. The difficulties and sometimes disastrous experiences of Adams, Jefferson, Grant, Wilson, Truman, Nixon, Clinton. Truman's popularity rating dropped to 22% during the last years of his second term. He was largely ignored when he left office, as was president Hoover. In addition there is the lame duck effect in the last two years when little in the way of new initiatives are undertaken and the president merely continues in office to finish up his term. Missteps are common- Jefferson with the blockade of trade with European powers, Grant and corruption scandals, Wilson with a tragic effort to get public support for the badly designed Versailles Treaty having a stroke, Nixon and Clinton with the impeachment process for the Watergate and the Lewinsky scandals, Truman's missteps in the Korean War and the firing of Gen. MacArthur leading to precipitious drop in ratings.

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The record shows that like other industrial states such as Illinois, Michigan and Ohio, Massachusetts lost many manufacturing jobs during the period 2003-2007, when Romney was Governor of Massachusetts. At the end of 2002 there were 338,000 manufacturing jobs in Massachusetts, by 2007 this had declined by 12% to 298,000, according to Andrew Sum, an economist at Northeastern University. Romney cites a drop in the unemployment rate from 5.6% to 4.7%. Prof. Sum who heads the University's Centre for Labor Market Studies, says this was people left the workforce during this period in large numbers. He says only Louisiana of all U.S. states had a bigger decline in the labor force when it was hit by Hurricane Katrina. The dot com bubble burst during the period before Romney took office. Massachusetts had already lost 158,000 jobs in 2001-2002 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Romney was unable to do much to reverse the job losses that continued during his term in office.

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The failure of the Jacob Zuma government of the ANC to imorove economic and living conditions for black people in South Africa. The gap between incomes of black and white South Africans is wider now than when Apartheid ended in 1994. It is also wider now than when Zuma took office three years ago.

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Gordon Brown before a packed room of foreign journalists enjoys a brief moment of satisfaction as he reminds a Swedish reporter who asks him if he is Flash Gordon, "no, just Gordon, just Gordon" and his whole face lights up. Running for public office he says means you take the ups and downs with equanimity.

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The LDP's landslide victory in the Dec. 2012 elections is not seen as a mandate for Shinzo Abe, the new LDP prime minister. Abe acknowledged this when he said: "We recognize that this was not a restoration of confidence in the Liberal Democratic Party, but a rejection of three years of incompetent rule by the Democratic Party." The LDP won 294 seats compared to the 308 seats won in the landslide win by the Democratic Party of Japan three years ago. Abe campaigned on a stronger stance in Japan's disputes with China. Yet he is committed to maintaining relations with China, a key trading partner. On China Abe says: "Our goal is to stop China from making these challenges, but we do not intend to allow an overall worsening in relations." Osaka Mayor Hashimoto's Japan Restoration Party was expected to do well but his campaign lost momentum after joining with Shintaro Ishihara, a nationalist politician. The Tomorrow Party which campaigned on the nuclear issue and anti-nuclear sentiment petered out after voters sensed the impact of electrical shortages and prices. The LDP is pro-nuclear and plans to reverse some of the anti-nuclear steps taken by the DPJ. The Democratic Party of Japan gained only 57 seats, and the former DPJ prime minister during the earthquake and tsunami, Naoto Kan, lost his parliamentary seat. Just as the PRI, a party that held a long monopoly of power was returned to power in Mexico in 2012, the LDP is returning to power, but very dependent on voters aspirations for good governance and its performance in office....

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Theresa May faces a no confidence vote from within her own Conservative Party. The head of the 1922 committee of Conservative party members of parliament said he had letters of protest from 48 MP's opposing May's Brexit deal, the number needed to call for a vote whether she should remain in office. May needs 158 votes to win. If she does not gain this number of votes a new Conservative leader will be elected prime minister. May's Brexit deal negotiated with the EU does not have the support of enough members of parliament for a vote.

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Deutsche Bank's image takes a hit in a criminal investigation of alleged tax fraud at Deutsche Bank involving cross border trading of carbon emissions certificates by traders. Co-CEO Jurgen Fitschen called the Governor of Hesse to protest a raid by 500 German police officers and investigators of the headquarters of Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt. The officers arrested some executives and confiscated data. Fitschen and co-CEO Jain were in a supervisory role for the trading and not directly involved. Fitschen signed a tax declaration that is part of the case. Over 20 Deutsche Bank executives are under investigation in the case. Because Fitschen was also being examined in the case this is being viewed in Germany as placing himself ''above the law," by interfering in a criminal investigation. Christopher Frank, head of the German Association of Judges, a senior prosecutor in Freiburg, said in an interview: "Its disturbing that a bank executive believes he can influence the independence of the judiciary through a phone call...This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the principle of separation of powers."...

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Risk averse leaders are hurting the German economy with little or no growth in the last 5 years. See articles alongside. Anglela Merkel's debt brake inthe German Constitution and the attitude for debt brake of Lindner's FDP in the Scholz coalition since 2021 have led to underinvestment in public infrastructure. Merkel's lack of investment in digital technologies, overdependence on Russia for oil and China for markets during the decade in office are all leaving Germany in bad shape in 2015.

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Britain's unemployment rate edged up from 8.1% to 8.3%. Youth unemployment- joblessness among young people ages 16-24- went up to 1.02 million in October 2011, the Office of National Statistics reported. This takes youth unemployment up to 21.9% The ONS says that noncomparable and nonseasonally adjusted data show youth unemployment exceeding one million in 1984, 1985, and 1986.

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A top executive level merger and integration team has been setup for the planned merger of Continental airlines and United Airlines. Under the integration management office which also has been setup there will be five groups for the main functions of the two airlines: commercial, operations, corporate, information technology, and planning for a single operating certificate from the FAA.

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Michael Cavanaugh, a former CFO of JP Morgan Chase, who was moved to the treasury and securities unit in 2010, will now head the Chief Investment Office (CIO) unit to replace Ms. Drew. He is a trusted aide to CEO Jamie Dimon, having moved with him when Dimon was fired by Sanford Weil at Citigroup in 1998.

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The Obama healthcare law is expected to reduce the total number of hours Americans work by equivalent of 2.3 million full time jobs in 2021, according to Congressional Budget Office projections. Earlier forecasts for this were 800,000 equivalent full time jobs. Some of these hours will be taken up by other workers looking for jobs, according to CBO's report.

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U.S. States faced a shortfall of $86 billion during the 2011 budget season, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. This was after a rise in tax collections during the last year from an improving economy, and about $30 billion of tax increases passed in 2009 and 2010. States faced the end of $66 billion in federal stimulus aid, and their share of Medicaid costs are expected to go up by $16 billion in this fiscal year, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers. The political mood has shifted with worries about the deficit and fears that tax increases could make the states less attractive for employers. As a result there is a focus on spending cuts with very few tax increases. Forty six states began a new fiscal year this week after legislatures focussed on spending cuts, mostly avoided tax increases, and some states placed restrictions on the pay and benefits of public employees.

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The deputy chief medical officer, Dr. Jenny Harries, asks people in Britain to limit themselves to what is sensible and not what is possible, to use common sense, so that reopening works. The Housing Secretary, Mr. Jenrick says the room for maneouvre is limited with the reproduction R ratio for Britain at somewhere between 0.7 and 0.9. There is also a lag period for data making it so that the current situation is not known. Germany's after reopening is now estimated by Robert Koch Institute at 1.14 so that there is some shift to be expected as the opening happens, the idea being to limit this to around the 1.0 figure. Britain reopens cautiously and in  in a patchy way with primary schools reopened, and people from different households allowed to meet in groups of six as long as they stay 2 metres apart. Outdoor markets and car showrooms are also reopening. Also stated is the need to be sensitive to geography as areas such as London which were hit early and with severity are now better off than areas in the north of England. ...

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This report cites experts in California that mask use was less than 50% in the state beaches and parks after it reopened. The medical officer of Orange County an affluent community near Los Angeles even resigned after mandating the use of masks in public after protests. On one day June 20, the day after bars reopened in Los Angeles County a WSJ report shows 500,000 people went to bars in the county. As of July 17 the state has 365,000 cases and about 10,000 a day. At one time it was much lower than Michigan at less than 50,000, adding to the complacency in California and a false sense that California had somehow come up with a new way around the virus. Michigan today is at about 70,000 cases, showing that careful attention to the process is important more than anything else, not some new strategy or approach that someone comes up with to beat the virus that does not meet the essentials and common sense. Even adversity can be overcome with sound attention to the basics, where complacency and a lack of fellow feeling can lead to disaster. ...

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Jean Brunel, chief investment officer at GenSpring, says expect returns of 2-2.5% on bonds and 5% on stocks and not much higher in the next 5 years. He points out that with low rates the whole investment environment has changed. The consensus among investment managers is that it is a good idea to lower expectations and not chase risky returns in the next couple of years.

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Henrique de Castro, chief operaing officer, leaves Yahoo after only one year on the job following poor performance in generating advertising revenue in 2013. He was hired from Google by CEO Marissa Mayer. Yahoo's share of display ad revenue in the U.S. declined in 2013 to 5.8% from 6.8% in 2012. Google's increased to 39% and Facebook's share increased to 7% in the U.S.

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The last successful coup attempt was in 1997, so the coup attempt in July 2016 by the military comes as a surprise. DW.com  discounts reports that the coup attempt was clumsy, or that Erdogan himself was involved in a fake coup to consolidate power. It says the coup involved about a third of the military officers, who would have been successful if Erdogan himself had not escaped just a few minutes before an airborne team was supposed to take Erdogan. The prime minister Yildrim also was not taken, and private television broadcasters also continued to broadcast. The other failure was to not being able to control the police which remained neutral, and to gain the support of the religious establishment, as mosques broadcast appeals to resist the coup. As a result had the coup succeeded it would have meant a struggle to control the country. The business and upper class that have strong differences with Erdogan and his authoritarian style also failed to support the coup, as they saw this as an incorrect move. ...

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Climate change study from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany published in Nature magazine retracted in December 2025. The study is an example of how such research when not done right can misrepresent situations leading to policy errors. Policy error under such misrepresentation can lead to errors such as a policy that excludes adjustments and a dual response to climate change and cost of living crisis attacking both on two fronts necessary today so soon after a disastrous pandemic and people living in scarcity not able to meet heating bills. What happened is that the study made predictions for 2100- which is impossible to do. Studied 1600 regions in the world. Showed decline of economic output by 62% in 2100. Did not mention that excluding Uzbekistan would make the reduction in growth 23%. It shows how overzealous work in one direction or the other can actually hurt the fight to address climate change and also tackle everday concerns like cost of living crisis. Recent reports in WSJ show how the approach of single focus has hurt economic growth in Germany and hobbled its industries. Other reports show how deprived and less deprived areas in the UK (also in the US) sit by side showing how decades of neglect of manufacturing and outshoring of factories have destroyed jobs and destroyed communities across Europe and the US, making them open to scourge such as fentanyl in the Nation's neighborhoods, and creating a climate of despair that feeds into other fears. Such as the fears of the surge of illegal migration promoted by traffickers and the influx of drug trafficking gangs in the Nation's neighborhoods. Such reports are then used by the World Bank and the Congressional Budget Office and central banks of 90 counties in the coalition Network for Greening of the Financial System, leading to distortions in policy actions, destroying the social consensus needed among wide sectors of the population in democracies in the EU and US and worldwide to address climate change and cost of living crises.  Leonie Wenz, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany says-“We broadly agree with the issues raised, and have made corrections to the underlying economic data and to our methodology to address them. These changes are too substantial for a correction of the original article in Nature.”   ...

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Vanguard's Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis, says there is a 40% chance of a recession in the U.S. by 2020, and that the prospects for the stock market have worsened quite a bit. U.S. stocks are expected to return 3.9% down from the earlier prediction of 8% in 2013 over 10 years annualized. In Europe the stocks are expected to return 6.5% down from 8.7% earlier prediction in 2013.

Bonds and cash offer safer alternatives with attractive rates.

Vanguard's 10 year annualized returns for a diversified portfolio of U.S. bonds is up from 1.7% in 2013 to 3.3%, for Treasury bonds 3.0%, and for international bonds up from 1.8% to 2.9%. Money market funds also offer relatively attractive returns as safe haven on 10 year annualized basis of 2.9% up from 1.5%. For the lower risk money market funds are attractive to investors for making adjustments.

 

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The culture clash of Mike Lynch and managers at Autonomy with officers under CEO Meg Whitman, after the acquisition by H-P, leads to the departure of most of the Autonomy managers.

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Media accounts have given so much attention to the Nixon Feb. 1972 visit to China that most people may be unaware that this was just an important yet small beginning. The significance of what happened after 1972 is not fully understood. In 1973 the US liasion Office was setup in Beijing and China's liasion office in Washington DC.  Beyond this not much happened. Why? In 1972 election year the Watergate scandal started in June of that year only 4 months after the Nixon China visit. Nixon was too engaged with fighting impeachment that there was not much followup to the visit to China. In 1974 Nixon resigned and Gerald Ford became president. Till Carter became president in 1976 and in 1977 negotiations began to upgrade relations with premier Deng Xiaoping visiting the US in 1979. In China too a lot was happening. Mao was hospitalized in 1972 during Nixon's visit to China, the reason for the urgency on the Chinese side. In 1976 within a few months first premier Chou en lai and then chairman Mao passed away. A power struggle led to the head of the Military Commission Deng taking control. It was not till 1977 under Jimmy Carter 5 years after 1972 that China began full normalization, gained diplomatic recognition as the People's Republic of China and trade, cultural contacts were started.   ...