LyrArc Article Gist
The Cruz campaign depended on its success in Iowa on a well organized grassroots campaign, and the large turnout of evangelicals estimated at about 62 percent. The record turnout of about 185,000 for the Republican caucuses showed the depth of participation in this election. About 46% of the voter turnout was from Republicans participating for the first time. Trump's poor grassroots organization, missteps including controversial statements by Trump denigrating women- leading to him opting out of the last Republican debate raising doubts about his candidacy- combined to put Trump struggling for second place, with Rubio finishing only one percentage point behind. Cruz had 28%, Trump 24% and Rubio 23%. One of the results of this election is the poor performance of governors Jeb Bush, Christie and Kasich, who combined polled less votes than a neurosurgeon Carson. The anti-establishment fervour was evident with the support for Cruz, Trump and Carson of about two thirds of the vote, reflecting anti-establishment views. Cruz's win was remarkable, say analysts, considering his opposition to special interest lobbies, including the ethanol lobby in Iowa supported by Governor Branstad. It was also remarkable because of the months of media coverage for Trump's statements and exaggerations, and the tacit support for Trump from the establishment Republican party, including Senator Grassley of Iowa and Governor Branstad. Cruz now heads on to the other states, including the six southern states voting on March 1, where he will be favored, with a well financed campaign using grassroots contributions....

LyrArc Article Gist
Petrobras plans investments of $224 billon over the next 5 years 2010-2014, up from $174 billion planned in the 2009-2013 plan. The focus is on development of large offshore oil reserves in the presalt area in the Atlantic ocean.

LyrArc Article Gist
Only 1.9 million hourly workers in manufacturing now earn more than $20 per hour, its down 60% since 1979, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of all hourly workers in every sector of the economy the percentage of people earning more than $20 per hour shrunk to 18% in 2008 from 23% in 1979, thus losing some of the gains the US made since World War II which helped build the American middle class. One can see this unwinding clearly in the auto industry as wages are being reduced to match nonunion Japanese plants, and the industry itself is going through a huge downsizing fast. The hourly work force totals 76 million or 52% of all workers ranging from managers and professionals to factory and construction workers to technicians, educators and sales people. The wages of salaried workers show a similiar trend but are not converted into hourly amounts. As the numbers for 2007 are at the point where the economy was still booming, the path ahead as things go through a steep downturn can only have serious implications such as a slow recovery for demand in 2010. If a number of trends converge, employers shift to part time employment, auto related workers downshift to lower wages and benefits, shift to nonunion plants in the south or the midwest, and work is offshored or outsourced, this could worsen effects on consumption for years ahead especially with the credit remaining tight and consumers paying off old debt. Frank Levy, a labor economist at MIT, says that all this is happening wihtout a political debate or discussion, as people are worried more about having a job, and only secondly about what it pays and whether they are losing ground. Even the Pennsylvania primary debate, says Levy, between Hillary Clinton and Obama was conducted without quantifying the decline, and no one mentioned the eroding of the $20 per hour wage. What happened to support the consumption and support imports, was to pay for consumption by going into debt or refinancing the home. This has implications that range from the future of export industries in China's booming coastal sector, to how long the recovery drags on, and to what the future would look like....

LyrArc Article Gist
Michael Powell of the NYT shows what is wrong about the Olympics model of the IOC having host cities build costly facilities just for a two week period. Cities that have suffered paying for the Olympics in recent memory are most strikingly Athens, Greece, and some observers say the Greece crisis started about the time the Olympics were held there. In Greece as in Rio, corruption, and mismanagement, are major issues. In the case of Rio the Olympics were held following a time of widespread protests as the economy hit a recession, and corruption scandal at Petrobras and in the government led to public anger. Most striking is the fact widely reported that the Rio government does not have enough money to pay salaries and much of the investment in Olympic infrastructure is not going to be available to the working class, middle class, at a time when basic public services such as clean water, good bus services, environmental pollution, significant shortages in affordable housing remain unaddressed. Bolsa Familia program of the socialist Workers Party helped the poor, yet the middle and working class have suffered with misspent funds, and mismanagement of the economy. Powell does well to show how things could be done better than they are now. He says he applauded the Bloomberg plan to build swimming pools and kayak routes in different parts of the city, in city parks further away where the middle and working class could use these facilities. This did not happen at the Rio Olympics. It also shows that the IOC could also get into this instead of being some distant organization, that simply hands out this gift called the Olympics and stringent requirements. What if the IOC also says it wants to see ways in which the facilities will be later available to the broad public, so that swimming pools and other athletic facilities, including housing and transportation systems are then available to the people in different parts of the city. Rio de Janeiro University has seen large cuts in pay and services. It took Montreal decades to pay for the Montreal Olympics. Sochi facilities will not be used for the large part by the Russian public, more painful because of the Russian deep recession similar to the Brazilian deep recession. Olympic host cities should be required by the IOC to show that the facilities built will be usable to the maximum degree by the broad mass of the public, finances are stress tested for recession in a country. At this time citizens of cities such as Boston and Oslo have taken up these things- as the IOC takes no responsibility and host governments are giddy about showing off their country- and pulled out. Least valid of all is the notion that the developing countries are being discriminated against. Look at all the empy stadiums in the far north of the country of Brazil in the World Cup, and you realize there are better ways to take pride in a country- how about matching your transportation infrastructure with that of China, some bullet trains, some new subways in large and midtier cities, done so as to give broad access to the public at affordable prices for transportation? India is a large and now forward looking developing country, a young population with tech and infrastructure dreams and 4 medals in all in the Olympics. Does it make more sense to match China's success in transportation infrastructure with bullet trains, new subways and road building programs, and to build athletic facilities in every high school and college in the country matching the U.S. and Britain,  especially for girls, or to seek pride in putting up an application for a gift from the IOC? ...

LyrArc Article Gist
It is very important at this time of the global pandemic not to be hard on yourself. It is best to have a positive mindset and to think positive. It is important to always be kind to yourself. This is the advice from experts in good mental health. Other advice- 1. The old advice of counting your blessings each day in the morning when we wake up or when we go to sleep is more true today than ever. 2. Staying in the present. Doing 10 or more minutes of meditation in the morning. Yoga teaches one to meditate in the early morning hours so if you are up early try this. Try sitting and place a candle light that you can concentrate on. Simply repeating OM with deep inhalations is suggested in the Mundaka Upanishad, the highly venerated book from yoga. If you want to read about it try searching for Swami Sivananda on Kindle. The Sivananda Companion to Meditation can be downloaded on Kindle from Sivananda Yoga Vedanta Centre. 3.  Thinking of the needs of others and less of one's own- as it says here experts have found that we are happier when we think of the needs of others. The self focus today is simply the wrong way of going about the task of pursuit of happiness.  4. Don't overwork. Studies show the German idea of Fierabend works that is of breaking off the work day at 5 pm, then doing something completely different, going out for a bike ride, a walk outside, cooking, friendly conversation, relaxation, exercize, hobbies. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
President Trump escalates the trade battle with China by increasing tariffs on $200 billion Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. The U.S. says China went back on its commitments in a 150 page agreement at the 11th hour or last minute, by deleting these commitments in all 7 chapters of this agreement. These are firm commitments sought by the U.S. in a number of areas of deep concern to the U.S. and the U.S. Trade Representative Mr. Lighthizer had already conveyed the determination of the U.S. to not relent on this. In the past China was seen to go back on its commitments and the U.S. side now wanted to ensure promises were kept. The U.S. concerns cover- theft of intellectual property and trade secrets, forced technology transfers, competition policy, access to financial services and currency manipulation.  The situation has been building up fro a decade with the Trump campaign honing in on this issue of China stealing U.S. jobs, and factory closures in the U.S., because of unfair trading practices. It also led to Mr. Trump's winning election campaign in the American midwestern states. With China seen as gaining an unfair technological advantage over the U.S., most recently over 5G telecom networks, the U.S. is not likely to back down. The U.S. is less dependent on trade with China. China is more dependent on the U.S. and a lot of manufacturing jobs in China are affected by the U.S. tariffs. This is why president Trump has decided to take a strong stand, including putting on tariffs on and additional $300 billion of Chinese goods.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The cultural shift as jobs in investment banking are not the status jobs anymore.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia's Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, says Russia's economy contracted in the first of 2014 compared with the prior quarter. Intensifed capital flows and lack of new investment could lead to the economy and GDP declining by 1.8% in 2014, according to the ministry forecast. Russia experienced capital outflows of $60 billion in the 2014 1st quarter, almost as much as for all of 2013. Russian law caps spending not covered by direct revenue at 1% of GDP. He called for tapping the rainy day fund for spending on infrastructure and investment to revive growth. Currently much of the revenue from high oil prices goes into building up the rainy day fund, used to cushion the impact of financial crises, after learning from the disaster of the 1998 financial crisis when the ruble collapsed.

LyrArc Article Gist
Problems of declining production at the Cantarell oil field in Mexico have been known for some time. Now President Calderon is trying to take on this issue. Brazil's Petrobras reached an impasse also some years back but was able to make the reforms, see the link to Petrobras. See the link in the WSJ for 8/30/07 on Petrobras . In 1995 President Cardozo of Brazil pushed through reforms after a oil workers strike at Petrobras. Upto that time Petrobras had problems similar to Pemex with underinvestment, state meddling in its affairs and finances, and too much bureaucracy and inefficiency. Can Calderon get reform for Pemex. Which amount of Pemex revenues should go to the government, how much should Pemex have so that it can adequately fund investment in new oil field exploration offshore, how to overcome bureaucracy and inefficient management, and how to arrange board representation so that Pemex can transform itself like Petrobras did. Some of the answers to these questions are emerging. Calderon wants to prepare his political position as the reform of Pemex is something that previous Presidents have failed to tackle. To do this the Senate's Energy Committee is holding a private debate on the issues. Calderon may try to forge a consensus with the Institutional Nacional Party, as he did with pension reforms if an all party consensus eludes him. Already in reforms of public finances that Calderon has pushed through Pemex will pay 71.5 centavos on every peso of oil extracted by 2012, instead of 79 centavos as royalty payments to the government. One reform being considered is to givePemex control of its own budget. At this time $10 billion a year goes back to the government on top of the royalty tax payments. Another reform would open up refining, transport and distribution to private enterprise. A think tank expert at CIDAC in Mexico City thinks that this can be done without reforming the constitution as was done to allow private investment in electricity generation in the 1990's. The same methods could be used to promote risk sharing contracts with other companies to bring in new technology for oil exploration, including companies from emerging countries like Petrobras, Petrochina and others, given Mexican's bias against the western oil majors. Especially because Petrobras has proven expertise in deep water drilling offshore. There is no question that Mexico is falling behind. One energy expert at the National Autonomous University estimates that the density of drilling rigs in the American portion of the Gulf of Mexico is 20 times greater than in the Mexican part, with Mexico having drilled only 20 exploratory wells in water deeper than 980 feet. in other areas like refining Pemex has not built a new refinery in 20 years, and imports 40% of its gasoline from US refineries, and its 7500 gasoline stations need expansion as Mexico's economy expands. Cardozo's transformation came with setting up an independent Board of Directors and putting an investment banker in charge. International oil companies were allowed into Brazil as a way to get Petrobras to compete with western oil companies and increase efficiency. And Cardozo got Petrobras listed on the New York Stock Exchange selling some 16% of Petrobras in the capital markets. This listing ensured transparency and improved corporate governance, as about 50 analysts now tracked Petrobras. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In China since 1981 the poorest people making below $1.25 a day fell to 207 million in 2005 from 835 million in 1981. In India the number of people below $1.25 a day increased to 455 million in 2005 from 420 million people in 1981. The share of the people in poverty fell to 42 percent from 60 percent during the same period. Corresponding figures for East Asia including China show a drop from 80% of the people in poverty in 1981 dropping to 18% in 2005. The proportion of people living below the $1.25 a day poverty line worldwide fell over the nerarly 25 year period from 1981 to 2005 from 52% in 1981 to 26% in 2005. In subSaharan Africa, now the poorest region half or 50% of the people live under the poverty line of $1.25 a day in 2005 almost where it was in 1981. In absolute numbers the region had 380 million people living below the poverty line in 2005 compared to 200 million people in 1981. Note that the World Bank this year changed the poverty line from $1 to $1.25 a day, to make allowance for the inflation that is hitting the poorer countries. Is China a rich nation after the Olympics? Some parts of China, the coastal regions and the regions around big cities like Shanghai and Beijing are relatively affluent with pockets of poorer people but in the rest of the country there is poverty as defined perhaps in terms of deep poverty, poverty, poor middle class without health insurance or any kind of savings for emergencies. With 200 million people in 2005 below the poverty line a question could be asked how many people in China below say $2.00 a day which could be seen as being poor at a time when inflation in food and fuel costs has been significant in developing countries. If its somewhere in the range of 300 and 400 million people in China this explains why in relative terms China would identify with India and the rest of the developing countries and it also explains its stand in the WTO trade talks acting as a developing country protecting the rights of agriculture and farmers within China. And it also explains the reasons why China sees a long transition before it ceases to be a poor developing country and why there is real concern that these 300-400 million people as well as others adversely affected by the rapid industrialization and exercize of state authority, corruption and increasing gaps between rich and poor, adverse effects on environment, that these people adversely affected are listened to and accomodated in the interests of stable progress and fairness. Much of recent history has shown that countries open to foreign trade have done better given the right conditions and careful policy measures. China opened up around 1981, and India around 1991. Also progress and gains are more significant in infrastructure building and in poverty reduction in the latter phases of development as the synergies increase, capital pool increases, and the development accelerates, this shows why China's gains look significant compared to India's at this point in time. In ten years or fifteen years a better assessment could be made and then some points may favor China and some India, and the results will be a result of different history, experiences and problems faced and routes taken because of prior developments in each region and varying complexity. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Michael Porter who is an authority on competitiveness and national strategy, is a Professor at Harvard University. He last servedin a national economic strategy advisor capacity in 1983, as a member of the President's Commission on Industrial Competitiveness. His view is that the USA badly needs an economic strategy. And the political system of the USA discourages developing such a strategy. The political dialogue also discourages the discussion from focussing on the key aspects of a strategy and because of the ideological slant the discussion between Republicans and Democrats tends to cancel each other out leaving the important work undone. What is an economic strategy? Its thinking clearly what are the advantages or strengths America as a nation has and how best to preserve these advantages in the future? And its thinking clearly about the weaknesses, and how to address the weaknesses, and where money and other resources should be allocated and what actions need to be takento get results. As strategy is a long term thing, it requires patient and perseverent effort and allocation of resources. The strengths he goes on to list are, an unparalleled environment for starting new companies and the science and technology, and the regional universities and clusters of high tech workers and resources in different regions of the country,the educational institutions for higher education, and the committment to competition and free markets, efficient and deep capital markets, and the acceptance of the uncertainty and cost in the huge job churn (restructuring of industry that destroys millions of jobs per year with net positive job creation). The problems that have arisen with these advantages have compromised some of them. Free markets are not really free as anti-trust enforcement has been lax resulting in mergers dominating markets and weakening compeititon. Many times the "free market' talk has become rhetoric and distorted for individual purposes. And regulatory oversight has been weakened in the name of "free markets", as if the market system could be run with no government regulation at all. The weaknesses are: remaining an energy inefficient nation even as countries like Japan have become increasingly and way more energy efficient, and doing nothing about it, not having any policies to fix this and assign a big priority to it. In the area of access to education, which is critically important to national competitiveness, the US ranks poorly in the number of college graduates and in the opportunties for access to college across the middle and working classes. Says Porter, the US ranks 12th in the college or higher educational attainment for 25-34 year olds. And the US he says has made no progress in this area for 30 years. This is a disturbing trend in a economy that must have the education and skills to justify its high wages, and how will Americans compete for jobs that can be moved elsewhere in these circumstances he asks. Strategy requires honesty with ourselves in identifying and addressing the strengths to be preserved and the weaknesses to be fixed. Solutions have to go to the heart of the problem, with the patient effort needed for longer term solutions, when problems have become embedded in the system, and in the habits, culture, and way of doing things, that will produce disaster down the road. Wen it comes to spending on priority investments, Porter prefers to tax rebates the spending that goes into educational assistance and into logistical infrastructure. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Paul Ryan, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, wins the Republican primary in his house seat of Janesville, Wisconsin, defeating his challenger Nehlen, by 84% to 16%. The Republican nominee Donald Trump earlier had refused to endorse Ryan, and only reluctantly endorsed Ryan following the vice presidential nominee Mike Spence's endorsement of Ryan. Senator Susan Collins, senior Republican senator from Maine, joined other leading Republicans saying she would not support Trump. Paul Ryan has split with Trump on trade, immigration, Mexico, and other issues. He has insisted on decency and fairness in politics, and has won his seat in a working class town that had a closed GM plant in 2008 after Ryan voted to support rescue of the auto industry and worked hard to keep it open. Even though some of his policies have not directly helped working class families, he has won increasing support from his district as the economy recovered with unemployment down to 4.4% in Janesville, according to BLS for May 2016. Much of that support since 1998 has been based on Ryan's decency, faith and family. He made it a condition that he would go back on weekends to Wisconsin to stay in touch with people, when he accepted the position of Speaker of the House, and he listens to local concerns. Ryan said about the national discourse- "It's simple to prey on people's fears. That stuff sells, but it doesn't stick. It doesn't last. Most of all, it doesn't work." His job in today's deteriorated national discourse is as vital as ever, both for Wisconsin as representing the best in the national spirit, and for the country.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The positive influence for the Romney campaign on conservatives, independents, seniors and working class voters of the selection of Paul Ryan. Ryan gives a well received speech at the Republican convention in Tampa, at one point referring to college graduates facing a tough job market "staring up at fading Obama posters."

LyrArc Article Gist
A 2011 survey by Universum shows technology firms such as Google, Apple and Facebook as the most preferred choice of university graduates during campus recruiting. Financial firms lag far behind, with J.P. Morgan Chase ranking 41st in that list. At Harvard Business School only 17% of the class went into investment banking and finance. Students from the University of Texas at Austin to Yale, say they want to build something tangible or follow their dream project.

LyrArc Article Gist
Syria after the Houla massacres and the sharpening divide between Sunnis and Alawites in Syria. Pro government thugs called shabiha using small arms are said to be responsible. The Houla area is predominantly Sunni and villages near it Alawite. The army is predominantly Alawite in a largely Sunni country. This risks bringing in other Sunni Arab countries into the conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Clinton tells students at the Royal Library in Copenhagen that China and Russia, mainly Russia, were obstacles for the Security Council to taking strong action, and this could lead to civil war.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Partido Popular party wins the most votes but loses its parliamentary majority in most of the country's provinces. Ada Colau in Barcelona, and a retired judge Manuela Carmena in Madrid supported by a left wing party, Podemos, are likely to become the new mayors. Spain's ruling Partido Popular party faces national elections in November 2015.