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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says of the talks with Iran in Feb 2026 - “I won’t speculate how far away they are, but they are certainly trying to achieve intercontinental ballistic missiles. And I would say that the Iranian insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles, it’s a big, big problem. And I’ll leave it at that.”

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The Obama administration makes the decision on June 13, 2013, to supply arms to Syrian opposition forces to the Assad regime and enforce a limited no-fly zone inside Syria. The decision comes as forces of the Assad regime make gains over poorly armed opposition forces and threaten the Syrian opposition's base in the city of Aleppo.

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The 2010 census reveals significant changes in the population mix in the U.S. The number of Hispanic people increased significantly, especially so in the under 18 age group. The Hispanic population went up by 43%, increasing to 50.5 million in 2010, compared to 35.3 million in 2000. Overall Hispanics make up 16% of the U.S. population of 308.7 million. One of the striking facts in the change is that children under age of 18 make up one third of the Hispanic population compared to one fifth for the white population. Texas by itself added 979,000 people under age 18, with 931,000 being Hispanic. 92% of the population growth since 2000-of 25.1 million- came from minorities of all kinds. And mixed race is another major category with nine million people. Asian American population also increased, especially in major cities such as San Francisco, San Jose and New York. Overall 63.7% of people identified as white, 16.3% as Hispanic, 12.2% as black, 4.7% as Asian, 0.7% as American Indian or Alaska natives. New York and Washington saw black populations decline. Detroit dropped out of the top ten cities replaced by San Jose. Chicago's population declined, New York's went up by 2% to 8.2 million people. ...

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US naval blockade of Iran in Arabian Sea starts April 13 2026. US destroyed Iran's larger ships 158 of them, yet Iran also has a fleet of smaller attack boats which it plans to use in Hormuz. These are harder to detect and can be hidden in coves along the Iranian coast and used against ships. The US with its naval blockade is now prepared to do what it has done also in Venezuela, stop and interdict fast drug boats on the Venezuelan side in the Atlantic ocean. By blockading Venezuela in the ocean US is using its strengths, and stopping drug boats its ability to pinpoint traffic on the ocean. Similar capabilities are well suited to Arabian Sea and Red Sea on the open oceans and away from narrow Hormuz playing to US strengths and capabilities. Aircraft carriers and destroyers and the US Air Force is in a position to do what it does best control open seas like the British did in their heyday of the Royal Navy for most of 1750-1920. This avoids options of Hormuz itself with its narrow 15 mile gap of water between Oman and Iran too close to mountainous terrain on either side, and of the Kharg Island option which would require special forces to be backed up with more ground forces. This is the most viable option and the interlude of couple of weeks has given the president an opportunity to make a better choice for positioning the US forces where the US has its strongest points. What is lacking is the individual powers of Britain and France whose leaders Starmer and Macron have popularity below 20%. Yet the US is better off making good choices and not having these nations alongside. The posturing by European nations is limited to France and UK, as Germany and Italy are in sync with the US position. Much of the media operates as if the goal of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to the Middle East is not important for long term peace for nations such as China and India with about 3 billion people and the billions of people of Asia, Latin America and Africa. For the first time in 400 years since 1600 as Asian civilizations began a long decline China and India have emerged in 2000-2030 into the kind of modern economies and societies that exist in Europe and the US. The last thing they need is the risk of destroying the Modern World with nuclear proliferation when it took centuries to get to the right opportunity after 1950 to modernize China and India. Xi's and Modi's generation are the first to experience modernization in Asia after Japan's experience. ...

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The latest Commerzbank estimates show Germany and Japan, both with large capital goods industry, showing declining GDP of about 7% in 2009. That is a steep decline stemming from the lower demand in industrializing countries like China, India and other countries. The German government has only committed so far 88 billion euros ($120 billion) or 3.5% of GDP. To get some idea what the German government is thinking look at the GDP numbers from the government, which show only a 2.25% decline. Compare this with other estimates closer to Commerzbank's estimate- BNP Paribas shows 5.4% contraction, Deutsche Bank 5%, German think tank DIW 4-5% drop. And the government estimate scheduled date for revision is April 29. This may explain the gap between what the Obama administration is saying to the Europeans: you need further stimulus, and what the Chancellor Merkel is saying: we will be just fine. The French government is saying saying the same thing the German government is saying. But France with a smaller export industry is expected to see a drop of less than 4%, the USA 4%, by Commerzbank estimates. Experts say as German elections approach in September, Merkel is going to have to respond with larger stimulus amid large job losses. And sentiment may be shifting in France as job losses mount, as evidenced by large turnout across France calling on the government to help in recent demonstrations....

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Oil prices are up and staying there longer in December 2011. The 12 month rolling average for oil prices for Brent crude oil is at $109, compared to $106 a barrel in September 2008, according to consultants JBC Energy. The situation is worse for eurozone countries because of the declining value of the euro estimated at between $1.16-$1.30 in 2012 depending on how the eurozone crisis is handled. The 12 month rolling average was 70 euros when Brent crude prices were at their high in 2008, compared to 78 euros today. France and Italy are seeing their current account surplus disappear with reduced exports and higher import bill for oil.

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S. Koreans do not like the Wal-Mart style large warehouse type of retail stores as a place to shop in. What they want is the Korean outdoor market comfortably tucked inside. A better comparison to Korea's own E-Mart owned by Shinsegae is Target stores in the U.S., where there is a a nicer spacious layout, lower shelves. Then you have to add the feeling of a Korean outdoor market with vendors in the form of girls with polo shirts showing the brands they represent calling out to customers, above the sound of butchers calling out prices of meat and fish. A senior executive at Shinsaegae's E-Mart says S. Koreans hate the warehouse format. As a result Wal-Mart and Carrefour had to withdraw from the Korean market. E-Mart's founder, Lee Myung Hee, is the daughter of the Samsung Group's founder Le Byung-chul. The company is now run by her son, Mr. Chung, who is combining professional mangement with ownership management to run E-Mart. The original E-Mart was a small operation acquired by the Samsung founder in 1963, and separated from Samsung under Ms. Lee in 1991. The first E-Mart opened in 1993. In 1999 Samsung took a 11% interest in Samsung-Tesco discount chain retail stores, a joint venture with Tesco Corp. of the UK. Shinsaegae expanded quickly after the 1998 Korean financial crisis, by acquiring land at attractive prices. With the failure of the Wal-Mart stores in S. Korea, Shinsaegae acquired the Wal-Mart operation for $872 million in 2008. ...

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Lahart says adjusting for inflation the DJIA average in early March 2013 would be about 12,900 instead of 14,254, much less than it was in Oct 9, 2007 peak. If dividends are reinvested the Dow would be at 16,600. With inflation and dividends taken together the Dow would be around 15,000. Lahart does not cite his source. Browning in a separate piece says the DJIA adjusted for dividends, inflation and taxes, according to Bespoke Investment calculations is still below the 2000 level in 1994 dollars, and provides a different view.

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Baker and Rudoren of the NYT describe how the relationship between Netanyahu and Obama gradually deteriorated over a number of years.

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Bischoff was at Citigroup since 2000 and Rubin has been there for a decade, This WSJ editorial says they should take responsiblility for the failures at Citigroup, and should have been asked to give up their positions as part of the rescue package, and with them much of the old board.

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This Journal editorial on Citigroup considers the continuing risks posed by its "too-big-to fail" status after the departure of CEO Pandit in Oct. 2012. The new CEO, Corbat, has experience in commercial banking in contrast to Pandit, yet the challenges remain at Citigroup.

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78% of people in France and 60% in Italy say they have No Trust in Politics. Germany and the UK are at the same level at 55% and 56% saying they have No Trust in Politics. This finding is from the annual barometer by Sciences Po, CEVIPOF and Opinion Way conducted in Jan 2026. 76% of people say democracy has not worked well in France. Only 23% saying democracy works well in France is compared to 54% in Germany and 52% in UK saying democracy works well a umber that is down from high sixties in 2020. In Italy 40% say democracy works well making France and its experiment with Macron particularly egregious as even in its best days Macron only had 40% saying democracy works well in France. Macron's personal popularity is at lows of 15-20% in 2026 and dropped early in 2018 to 30% and never recovered. It appears that the talent pool for France Germany, UK, and Italy, is poor to get such abysmal ratings in the governance of the country.

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Questions about how Mr Geithner has handled his job at the New York Fed and at Treasury during the bailouts of financial firms. Were there close relationships with bankers, hedge fund managers, and others that compromised the Fed's ability to regulate the financial industry? Why was Geithner advocating loosening standards for the reserves financial institutions have to hold to insure against potential future losses, as late as 2007? Inherent in the design of the job of New York Fed President was a conflict of interest, as the institution is supposed to be a watchdog over the financial industry, but the President of the NY Fed reports to a board that is comprised of the heads of banks and financial instituitons. These financial leaders also participate in the selection of the new President. Geithner was a quick learner and a listener, who asked questions, but he was an outsider coming from work at AID, the IMF and Treasury. He is described by one bank executive Sanford Weill as "a baby face," and lacked experience in dealing with the financial industry. He was brought in by Rubin and Summers, two mentors at Treasury. These two had close ties to the financial industry, and did not question practices of overleveraging and risk taking in the financial industry. Was it too much to ask of Geithner, under the circumstances, that he would rock the boat and ask the tough questions about risk and leveraging. On the other hand did he miss things completely when he was asking for even looser capital standards for banks in 2007, less than a year before the crisis hit, which were never adopted. And was he too close to the financial industry and aggressive in the wrong sort of way when advocating in a meeting as President of the New York Fed, that the government back up all the debt in the financial system. Did he too casually overlook the conditions that could easily be put in place for the government to be able to recover some of the money put into the bailouts. And was he too close to Goldman Sachs, that he brought Goldman in for advice in the AIG bailout, even though there were conflicts of interest and money that would never be recovered from the $182 billion bailout of AIG, some of which went to banks including Goldman. If Geithner had seen some of the problems in risk taking why had he not supported FDIC's Bair in her opposing view for capital reserves, and government conditions on bailouts that enabled some recovery of capital put into failing financial institutions. And did he get too close to Citi, that at one point Sanford Weill tried to bring him in as CEO even when he was already President of the New York Fed. Does it go to show that -the very idea that this was even possible- the design of the New York Fed with the President reporting to the Board of the very same bank presidents that he was supposed keep in check, makes for an incomprehensible position of regulation at odds with the structure of reporting and selection....

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Bernanke defended the Fed's QE II decision to buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds, at a central bank conference in Frankfurt. He said "the US risks millions of people being unemployed or underemployed for years and as a society, we should find such an outcome unacceptable." Rebutting the Germ, Chinese and Brazilian criticism, he said the policy would maintain a strong dollar over the long run. Senator Shelby told reporters, Bernanke estimates creating 700,000 to 1 million jobs over the next 2 years. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Posner said that he was very concerned about unemployment, but was "worried that monetary policy isn't the right set of tools at this juncture."

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Peter Coy says that as long as unemployment numbers keep going up and foreclosures keep increasing as aresult of the job losses housing prices will keep falling. He says that they may have to fall 20% more than the level they are at today. And that the foreclosure levels could become atidal wave if it becomes easier for alot of people to just hand their keys to the banks. This was what Martin Feldstein warned aginst in the WSJ oped pages several times in 2008. As more people are under water it makes sense to just hand the keys to the banks, and as long as this goes on, the economic recovery will be put off. A study cited by Coy done by Reinhart and Rogoff shows that housing crisis of this magnitude last about 6 years before all the bad effects wear off. And in addition to housing there are other things at work in this crisis especially in the job loss rate which is increasing (663,000 jobs lost in March), and the readjustment in savings rate upto 6.4% according to BW for 2009 till March, which suggests a serious drop in the consumption rate is underway and may go on for several years crimping demand and increasing unused manufacturing capacity. The stories in the media and other information reinforce this statistical information. The bit of good new from hard hit housing markets in California and Nevada and other staes has to be seen as no more than a limited play in the foreclosure markets, that does little to the broad brush strokes that are ocurring on the national and world landscapes in job losses and consumption. Coy a veteran analyst who has covered the housing market and warned during the boom of the likelihood of abust in a cover issue at the time, brings experience and reflection to the developments, and urges serious caution in interpreting signals that may have no broad meaning....

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Jon Gertner makes several critical points about the importance of supporting and investing in manufacturing. The U.S. private sector in new industries such as alternative energy, and electric cars is competing not just with the private sector in Germany, S. Korea or Japan. It is competing with the governments of these countries which are investing heavily to build innovation and jobs in their home countries. Innovation, design and manufacturing are woven together in these new industries in a manner that is different from the iPhone/ iPad/ Search algorithms /Facebook software type industries dominated by names such as Apple, Google and Facebook. The software industries are the opposite of jobs intensive industries with Facebook having 2000 employees and Google having 29,000 employees. By comparison the lithium battery industry could generate over 62,000 jobs in the next 10 years, and the electric car industry as a whole with its supplier networks could generate much larger numbers of jobs. Because of the advanced technology involved these are good well paying jobs. The finance industry in the U.S. is attracted to the quick returns in the software related fields, leaving a gap for the American government to fill a role nurturing these industries. This would be similiar to the manner that the German and Japanese governments do working with their own private sector. The private sector in the U.S. needs only the early nurturing and can operate on its own by innovating its way to competitiveness in manufacturing and cost after the early years. Because of missteps in failing to support manufacturing in the U.S., the U.S. may have to import some of the technology from countries such as Japan and S.Korea to make up for these missteps. This is happening in the lithium ion battery manufacturing technology and facilities, which experts say is being successfully imported from these countries to the U.S.. The Obama administration has provided $2.5 billion dollars from the stimulus investments to support projects of 30 companies operating in the advanced battery technology field. This includes companies such as A123 Systems and LG Chem Power in Michigan. As a result of these efforts the Department of Energy estimates that by 2015 the U.S. will have the capacity to manufacture 40% of the world production of lithium batteries for the autombile industry. In 2009 the U.S. had capacity to manufacture 2% of the batteries....

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Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the German parliament is realistic about the prospects of Minsk 2, after the failure of Minsk 1, which was negotiated in the Belarus capital Minsk in September 2014. The Russians have the upper hand militarily and the demarcation line moves further to the west in current negotiations in Minsk. The breakdown in Minsk 1 comes as Putin continues to support the separatists in Ukraine, who declared a Donestsk People's Republic with elections held recently, and have now taken territory to make their positions in eastern Ukraine more defensible. The war could end there with a de facto split of eastern Ukraine on the Russian side, or lead to further guessing of Russian president Putin's intentions if the conflict continues. Italy's foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni, points out that arms aid by the U.S. to Ukraine would only fail as Russia could respond, and it gives the Russian president the added advantage of the narrative that the U.S. and NATO are a threat to Russia at its borders. All sides say they respect the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine, but the fact remains that Ukraine is deeply divided with the eastern region bordering Russia having close ties to Russia, and the western region near Poland having strong ties to a newly emergent EU that includes much of Eastern Europe. Prudence and restraint is needed on all sides for a settlement. ...

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After a long year of uncertainty this is what it comes down to. The new turnaround plan developed by CEO Fritz Henderson and the government's auto task force will leave the government owning more than half of GM. Under this plan GM will get an additional $11.6 billion in loans from Treasury, on top of the $15.4 billion already received. THer government will get half of the ownership of the company in payment for half of these two loans. And GM will use stock instead of cash to pay off half of the $20.4 billion it owes a United Auto Workers fund to cover retiree health care. That transaction will leave 39% of GM in the hands of the UAW. This happens just as another agreement was reached to leave the UAW with 55% ownership of restructured Chrysler, and FIat SpA getting 35%, with the US government and lenders owning the rest. What happens to bondholders? They were told to swap $27 billion of unsecured debt for a 10% company stake. GM and the government give bondholders little choice, if they do not do so GM's Fritz Henderson says GM will file for bankruptcy. In 2011 hourly workers will be less than 40,000. Market share will shrink to 18% in 2014 from 22% in 2008. The number of dealers will drop to 3605 by 2011, down 42% from 2008, and GM will kill the Pontiac brand. Much of the company will have disappeared, showing how market forces are at work in our system in destroying companies, and leaving them as a fragment of what they once were, if management gets complacent and makes a series of errors. Its a big development and shows the savy shown by the government auto task force's leaders in setting up the arrangements. A smaller GM will emerge. But this is an understatement if ever there was one. Here is a company that had close to 200,000 workers in 2000, with hourly workers close to 150,000. See the graph. ...

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Looking around Havana U.S. president Obama finds a country stuck in the 1950's. His observation: "You drive around Havana and you say, 'This economy is not working' ...It looks like it did in the 1950's." Obama's view on relations with Cuba was that things have changed, with younger Cubans especially looking to integrate with the world economy for a better life. This is the same in Venezuela, in Argentina. His view: "I know the history, but I refuse to be trapped by it."

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Narendra Modi is now the choice of the BJP party in India to lead it against the ruling Congress party of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. The corruption in government and the slowing growth have improved the chances of Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat state in northwestern India, near Mumbai. Modi has done well in Gujarat state in a number of areas- from foreign investment in manufacturing, infrastructure development, and better governance. His plan is to replicate this at the national level. His slogan is minimum government and maximum governance.

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Libyan lawyer and human rights activist Azza Kamel Maghur, fled earlier this year to Canada with his 3 year old daughter. He writes about the people of Tripoli rising up against the Gaddafi regime. At the same time rebels were closing in on Tripoli in the third week of August 2011. He describes the Al Zuhur neighborhood of Tripoli on the day when the evening call to prayer from the Ben Nabi and Buhmeira mosques rang out longer than usual. This time a signal for people to take to the streets. Some of the youth were shot by snipers from rooftops of buildings. The struggle to free Tripoli was taking place. The carefully planned signal was coordinated with the rebels advance and NATO airstrikes. It enabled the rebels to advance quickly into the city.