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WSJ's Vibhuti Agarwal and Shan Li describe the situation of families in New Delhi during the coronavirus surge that is affecting India in April, 2021. WSJ says the outbreak in India has implications for the world- threatening to extend the duration of the pandemic into 2022, with the possibility of new mutations bringing new dangers from the virus. Public complacency, relaxation of restrictions and failures in compliance with covid protocols after weariness with the long social and economic isolation, elections, and the force of a new variant, have led to the situation in India, with over 300,000 cases of infections daily.

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A Pew Research Center poll in September 2016 finds 81 percent of Indians have a favorable opinion of Narendra Modi in 2016, compared to 87 percent in 2015. Even among supporters of the opposition Indian National Congress a majority say they have a favorable opinion of Mr. Modi. The author of the poll, Bruce Stokes, says the opinion of frustration of the Indian elites and media about the Modi administration is not reflected in public opinion. Recently the Modi government passed legislation for a national Goods and Services Tax replacing overlapping state and federal taxes that are seen as holding up growth.  Issues the Indian public ranks high are corruption, unemployment and terrorism.

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According to the American Society of Civil Engineers over 10% of the 607,000 bridges in the U.S. are structurally deficient. And 42% of U.S. highways are congested. A poor transportation system makes the U.S. less competitive. The cost to U.S. businesses from a poorly funded and maintained transportation system is about $430 billion more in operating expenses by 2020 and $1.7 trillion in lost opportunities, according to ASCE.

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This NYT report follows other reports about the inefficiencies and mismanagement in the New York Subway System. As a result it cost $3.5 billion for laying one mile of subway track on the Long Island Rail Project- 7 times what it costs in other parts of the world. It cost $2.5 billion for the Second Avenue Subway just to lay one mile of subway track on the Upper East Side of New York. In this way cost for the Long Island Rail Project jumped to $12.5 billion. What this means is that there is less money for regular maintenance, a topic covered in another NYT report. With less required maintenance there are costly delays for people using the subways. Worse the NYT reports politicians have not hesitated to do what they should not have done- burden the MTA with debt and divert money away from things that are badly needed such as maintenance. 

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Gerard Baker in the WSJ points to issues of transgender, illegal migrants in US cities, and race in politics as issues on which the "correct" views were causing anxiety for the American public. Parental anxiety on transgender at school for their children, public anxiety on illegal migrants in American cities, and anxiety about race as a defining factor in political life. The illegal flow of fentanyl and loss of life in the US is a basic issue- how could the US as the largest advanced economy in the world become so feeble that it cannot stop illegal flows of fentanyl and human smuggling. Baker also says that he doubts that the new Department of Government Efficiency will work and eliminate waste, that he thinks imposing tariffs will depress domestic productivity and reduce living standards of the people. And that installing what he calls "oddballs" will work except to create chaos. On the issues of infrastructure, cost of  manufacturing revival in the US which were issues in 2016 and turned into the agenda of the Biden years little is said, and on cost of living nothing tangible about reversing the 20-30 percent of price increases in housing and groceries that have happened in the pandemic years 2019-2023. ...

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Lonely Planet and other travel books contributed to all the travel overcrowding we see today. Tony Wheeler a co-founder has some advice- "go two streets over" and you can avoid a touristy spot for other attractive options. The Washington Post's Andrea Sachs talks to Lonely Planet travel books cofounder Tony Wheeler who started the company with his wife Maureen in 1972 after trips from London to Turkey and Iran by car. Their first book was Across Asia on the Cheap and started a new period of travel using hostels and cheaper accomodations and distant locations not travelled before by earlier generations such as Brazil and Argentina, distant parts of Asia and Africa. Wheeler is now 76 and lives in Melbourne and London. He sold his company in 2011, and it is now run by Red Ventures.

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David Reilly warns that though the U.S. Federal Reserve's stress tests of U.S. banks showed they passed- including approval for dividends and share buyback- except for Ally Financial and Citigroup, this can be deceptive. True, the Fed used 13% unemployment and sharp drop in stock market prices as conditions. The problem is with capital ratios. The Fed used a leverage ratio of 3%. It should not be forgotten that the financial crisis of 2008 was caused by excessive leverage and risk. Tested on this measure the banks fail to achieve safe levels of leverage and risk. Under the Fed's highest stress scenario Citigroup ratio was at 2.9%, Morgan Stanley's at 3.4%, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan at 3.8%- what ths means is that the leverage for these banks was at 26-29 times capital. Reilly raises the question- how is this so different than the leverage used by these banks before the crisis. The stress tests in the U.S. by the U.S. Federal Reserve are lauded for being better than the European Banking Authority's stress tests, but is this a standard by which to judge them? Before the collapse of Lehman in 2008, experts including Anil Kashyap at the University of Chicago, pointed out that for every $1 of bank losses in a deleveraging cycle bank lending goes down at banks by $10, and for investment banks at $20-$30 depending on leveraging- in David Henry and Matthew Goldstein, Business Week, July 16, 2008, How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street? Lehman's leverage ratio was between 24-31 times capital before the crisis. Worse, by saying banks are now safe compared to the situation before the crisis, is the Fed giving the green light to banks for some of the same leveraging behaviour that ocurred before the crisis?...

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At a time in Jan. 2022 when 73% of Americans have received two dose vaccines and 39% have a booster shot according to the CDC, the US Supreme Court is deliberating on the Biden vaccine mandate that seeks to get the rest of the people vaccinated.

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Consumption at 88 retailers in Japan from shoes to glasses increased by 20.5% in March 2014 and decreased 1.8% in April, according to brokerage firm CLSA. This suggests the Japanese economy can ride out the effects of an increase in the consumption tax and stay on the growth track in 2014-2015.

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Eventually China's stimulus efforts and efforts to build up its reserves of commodities like its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, may not boost demand for oil, iron ore and other commodities enough to offset the recessionary impact on the industrialized economies. And China's demand is large but not that large that it can tilt prices one way or the other. In the first quarter China accounted for 9% of global oil demand, compared with 55% for the largely recession impacted industrialized world. Stockpiling of resources is a temporary factor. Sanford Bernstein estimates the first phase of China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve may have boosted imports by 400,000 barrels a day in March and April. Another factor is consumption. Stimulus dollars pushed fixed asset investment by one third in the first quarter, yet consumer spending went up less than 10%. Consumption will remain weak. Ultimately China's stimulus efforts may act as a brake on sudden falls in commodities prices, and not support continual upward pressure on commodities prices right smack in the face of a deep recession and large underutilization of manufacturing capacity in the industrialized world....

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Harris attended the Munich Security Conference 3 years in a row and met with world leaders in the last 2 years. She has also learned from working with Biden who was over a period of 30 years chairman or senior most member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. No other president comes close. Harris has as foreign policy adviser Phillip Brown who did his PhD. on French Gaullist security policy. Her close links and great understanding of India are also an asset as India is a key part of US policy in Asia with Japan and Australia, and is expected to be the third largest economy in the world over the next decade. This will help in setting economic policy along with foreign policy. Under Biden domestic policy worked hand in hand with foreign policy to achieve domestic policy goals of industrial strength and manufacturing in the US. Harris is likely to continue this policy approach. Harris is a close observer and learner of the conduct of economic policy under Biden, and can add in some ways to bring fresh look at foreign policy. ...

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Eminent climate ecologist Nicholas Stern says India's commitment by 2070 demonstrates real leadership from Mr. Modi of India.The Guardian says India's commitment to net zero emissions by 2070 is realistic considering that it is decades away from its peak in economic growth and energy consumption compared to US or even China. Energy consumption is expected to grow faster than any other country in the next few years. India's population is also expected to pass that of China as the largest in the world. The Guardian says climate experts who did the modeling have said this was the most realistic scenario for India - to achieve net zero emissions by 2070. This also means India's peak energy emissions will be reached by 2030. Eminent climate ecologist Nicholas Stern says - "This was a very significant moment for the summit. This action might mean India's annual natural greenhouse gas emissions could peak by 2030. This demonstrates real leadership from a country whose emissions per capita are about one third of the global average."  Also significant is Mr. Modi's pledge to deliver on 5 commitments 1. 50% of India's power to be generated by renewable energy by 2030. 2. Increase of 500 gigawatts of renewable energy including solar by 2030. 3. Reducing carbon emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030. 4. Reduce carbon intensity of the economy by 45% by 2030. This relates to how efficiently energy is used to generate 1 unit of economic GDP. With 1.3 billion people India is the third largest emitter of carbon dioxide- at about 3 billion tons- after the US and China. In growth terms this means India is going to grow very differently from the way China did in 2000-2020 with its many highly polluting industrial plants. The head of the US Renewable Energy Agency Mr.Birol says in a BBC intervew that the cement and steel plants alone of China have more emissions than the whole of the European Union's total emissions. Much of this comes from old plants and old technologies with surplus production of steel from what is now a bygone era of excess, inefficiency and chaotic growth. India plans to bring climate change emissions and energy efficiency through renewables into its Gat Shakti master plan for the country's economic.development. ...

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Comments by Seidman, Volcker, Shiller and Soros on thie mortgage crisis. How will it afffect economic growth and for how long. Soros points to a complicating factor the dollar if the Fed has to cut interest rates and the current account deficit. Volcker points out that its to early to tell not knowing what will happen in 2008. Volcker says its potentially approaching the scale of the savings and loan crisis.

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"The Manual of Parliamentary Practice" by Thomas Jefferson, first published in 1826, sets the practice of providing Congress the negotiating records for a treaty including correspondence, as a normal "usage for the Executive." This creates public confidence through the necessary transparency and openness.