LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the WSJ points to president Biden's speech to a joint session of the US Congress that providing two years of free community college would "change the dynamic" for education in America taking the first step to correct a dangerous drop in college enrollment for young men in America and ensuring working class families have access to college education. The last thirty years of skewed wealth distribution, loss of manufacturing in America, have created alarming distortions in  the access to college education for working class families. Mrs. Biden is a fervent advocate for community college access in today's America, as a community college teacher for 30 years. Biden's $45.5 billion 5 year plan would waive tution for 2 years of public community college. States would have to opt-in to participate, and federal government would provide 100% funding in the first year, decreasing contribution by 5% each subsequent year, with states picking up rest of the cost. It is quite shocking that this is being dropped from the Biden $3.6 trillion Families and Workers Plan that is now being whittled down to $2 trillion. Not because it is not badly needed for American economic competitiveness, and helping workers and families. But because following narrow parochial interests the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities opposes it. And because the US Congress is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans 50-50 in the Senate. The Association of Independent Colleges sees a shift to community colleges and a sharp drop in its enrollment. Community colleges saw a dangerous drop in enrollment of 12% to 4.5 million students in 2020 from the spring of 2019, according to National Student Research Center. Never was a program more badly needed, as American men are alarmingly falling behind in enrollment. Here are some responses to the failure to take even the first steps to broaden college access so that America can return to economic competitiveness. "What kind of world do we want to live in?" Martha Kanter, College Promise. "That's kind of a devil's choice, isn't it? The whole system has to work from infant care all the way through." Senator Tina Smith, Democrat of Minnesota. This is because child care and children's education will be funded yet a struggling generation of college students will be left out. US Chamber of Commerce opposes a $45 billion program that is critical to American competitiveness with China and other countries. US Congress drops a program that at $45 billion is only about 2% of the $2 trillion package and which is critical to economic competitiveness. Former Republican Governor Bill Haslam of Tennessee supports community college access as a pillar of economic development and it passed the supermajority in 2014. Mike Krause, Republican former director of the state higher education commission says- "I have been surprised by the lack of enthusiasm for what is really a massive workforce development concept that also provides a path to the middle class. You'd think that would hold some appeal for Republicans and Democrats." The lack of clarity and concentration, lack of unity of purpose to get all vaccinated,  is visible in America's vaccination drive. That same lack of clarity and concentration, lack of unity of purpose, is visible in America's faltering efforts at correcting serious and alarming problems for access to college and American competitiveness in the world. Julie Bykowicz and Douglas Belkins wrote this article in the WSJ.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This behind the scenes account  shows how the NATO communique with policy declaration was prepared by July 6 before European leaders and Mr. Trump set foot in Brussels on July 11. It shows to what lengths key members in the Trump administration will go to achieve American objectives in preserving the NATO alliance. Particularly now that Russia is taking an aggressive stance to NATO near its borders.  General Mattis at Defense Department pushed for the 4 30's initiative which is about preparing a rapid deployment force to be ready by 2020. This is in the communique. Also in the communique is the setup of a command post in Norfolk, Virginia, ready to act to deploy forces in Europe. U.S. ambassador to NATO, Kailey Hutchinson, received the demand from National Security Adviser Bolton to have ambassadors from all countries work overtime to get the declaration done by July 6. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General supported this effort. All were concerned that there should be no repeat of the mess that happened for the G-7 communique when at the last minute president Trump refused to sign on, leading to derisive comments about Canada's Justin Trudeau. It was seen as critical to preserve the sense of unity in the U.S. alliance with Europe. This time there was no disruption even though Mr. Trump acted unpredictably in Brussels. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Coca Cola's new Turkish-American CEO Muhtar Kent is interviewed by the WSJ's Mike Esterl. Kent answers questions about obesity and Coke, about management style, plans with Coca Cola's cash reserves of $13 billion, and his olive grove in the Aegean part of Turkey. He says he is a hands-on person and spends one day in the market every week wherever he is, keen on learning something each time. He points to the time spent on trucks during the seven and half months in 1978, when he joined the company. His response to the obesity issue is that Coca Cola is now a 500 plus brand, 3000 products company, of which 800 introduced in the last 4-5 years are calorie free or low calorie.

LyrArc Article Gist
The sense of conflict in China and US relations may not have developed in the shaping of Xi Jinping's thinking till the emergence of Mr. Trump. Jinping comes into the China shaped by Deng and Zemin after the collapse of the purely Communist experiment with modernization without access to western technologies and capital, and the experiment with American help. It is only after the realization that the Communist party had lost its sense of purpose in these years leading to the Bo Xilai episode, and the rhetoric of Mr. Trump against China, that the idea of first friction and then conflict emerged. The initial idea for Jinping before Trump was that this has worked for China- the experiment with the cooperation of the US in modernizing China. Trump's rhetoric and the Republican party's rhetoric about China stealing American jobs and technology after 2015 may have been targeted to win the election but it had an unintended effect after the tariffs of shaping Jinping's thinking about the future for China. Between the Bo Xi Lai episode in 2012 when it appeared he would be attempting to manipulate the Communist party's direction in unknown and unpredictable ways, Bo's trial in 2013 and the anticorruption campaign and the 2015 election campaign of Mr. Trump in the US, there must have been much soul searching in the party that shaped Jinping's thinking about the future for China after all the tumult of the 20th century starting with the Boxer rebellion in 1901. Stability is highly prized in China particularly for modernization. This perspective is important to grasp for world peace to be preserved with different coexisting perspectives about the world based on national as well as shared interests in issues such as climate change. US after its own disastrous experiment with capitalism that led to widening inequality of the kind not seen since Lincoln in the 1850's, the 2009 crisis, and the shift of jobs to China under a purely capitalist idea of how economies should function, had its own national interests in jobs, local manufacturing and Made in the USA. Once this process was underway after 2016 and grasped by president Biden after 2020, and supply chain reconstruction made the goal after covid, the US and China were on divergent economic and political paths.   That rethinking by Xi Jinping is not over as it may still be going on. The war in Ukraine may even convince Jinping and China's No. 2 leader Li Keqiang who studied the US constitution and American urbanization under mentors when he was in college, that Russia's prolongation of the war in Ukraine does not serve the interests of China. That risking relations with the European Union as Russia prolongs the war and finds itself in the complex problems of  a war it started, is not in China's interests in setting its own course for the future. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
October 1 is a national holiday in China  and the 75th anniversary of the founding of People's Republic of China in 1949. Youth and students in China travel across the country to visit historic sites in the Chinese Revolution in what is called Red Tourism. The perceptions of young people and students on Mao in 2024 is shown in this video in FR24. This is how China wants to remember its past- a century of conflict with European powers and the British Empire after European Powers tried to breakup China following the Opium Wars in the 1850's. This was followed by the Japanese Empire staking its claims over parts of northern China in 1900-1945, and the period in which the US under General Joe Stilwell struggled with the dilemma of China knowing the corruption and failure of leaders to modernize China.  Then followed the decades when hunger and inadequate healthcare was banished from China, yet the industrial revolution that happened in western Europe and the US was elusive. Efforts in the 1960's to do this failed. Only when China showed the spirit of humility to work with Europeans and Americans and the Japanese and opened up its thinking to adopt markets in its own context of state run operations was the industrial revolution accomplished and modernization made to happen in the 1990's onwards. Three decades of rapid industrialization transformed an ancient nation in the heart of Asia. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Lyrarc.com's Movement for Global Literacy and its knowledge site open to all has major relevance for today. That 30% of Americans read zero books is a clear warning sign for Democracy in the idea of "We the People," and the Economy benefitting all, in the US. The use of libraries follows political, income and demographic patterns is shown in a You Gov poll research. There is a gap of 10% between the 30% library use at incomes over $100,000 vs 20% at incomes below $50,000. The gap widens with political inclination to 13% when party preference is considered with 30% Democratic and 17% Republican- not a good state of affairs for the Nation.  In general the top 50% of the population gets to libraries split evenly between frequent and less frequent users. The bottom 50% with rarely using or no use at all. This is the crux of the problem- literacy of all kinds should correlate with the use of libraries and books and digital use.  Digital use happens with iPads and laptops searching Wikipedia and knowledge sites such as Lyrarc.com outside of libraries, and this is part of the picture. What library use gives is not a full picture yet one with these wide variations an indication of how the political life of the Nation should be turned in constructive ways for broad based participation in a knowledge society. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Extreme drought affected Minnesota cattle farmers leading to elimination of many cattle herds.               Wildfire smoke from Canada settled down over the cities of St Paul and Minneapolis for days.                 Lack of enough snow and ice in winter led to losses in ice fishing and cross country skiing making winters unnatural in Great Lakes Region that also includes Wisconsin and Michigan. Walz acted, and his plain spoken communication style made a difference clearing misperceptions. Pew Research shows 67% of Americans favor clean energy but misperceptions abound.          Minnesota during his two terms now produces 50% of its energy from wind, solar and nuclear. Minnesota is now likely to be ahead of California in getting to 100% wind solar and nuclear for all its energy. Walz set the date 2040 into law for this to happen with 40 climate initiatives. A bill signed into law speeds up the permits for renewable energy projects. Walz’s communication style shows that when people understand the benefits and specifics you get things done. “The surest way to get people to buy in is to create a job that pays well in their community. All of us are going to have to be better about our smart politics, about bringing people in.”        ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Turkey is reviving its relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Prince Bin Salman will visit Turkey as part of a remake of Turkey Saudi relations. Turkey's economic crisis has revived the relationship as Turkey badly needs aid for its economy. The pressure on emerging markets is increasing with US central bank raising rates reducing inflows of western money into Turkey even further. Prince Salman has already received visits from French and British leaders. He visited Jordan and Egypt this week and will now be in Ankara. In the summer he will visit Greece and Cyprus. Saudis are modernizing their economy changing culture in relationships of men and women, in women's rights and education, and broadening relationships with the world under Salman. There is an astonishing openness to science and technology in a drive to be modern. The old Saudi monarchy and conservative rule with ancient traditions is giving way to what the Saudis in the group under Salman see as the modernization of Europe and America in the 20th century using science and technology as what they would like to see in their own country. There is also a drive to think independently from the dogmatic positions of the past that have turned the Kingdom into an American dependency with no obligation or incentive to modernize its culture and be open to the world outside.  The US fought a war to ostensibly modernize a backward mountainous remote state as Afghanistan, while being perfectly comfortable with the old Saudi monarchies of the past that made little change in the ancient culture and tradition and in women's rights and education. Such were the contradictions in American policy and the failure to think anew. As president Lincoln said "as our case is new we must think anew, and act anew." President Biden will now visit Saudi Arabia to build a new relationship with an independent nation, which along with the UAE is bringing change to the Middle East through infrastructure development and modernization. Salman's modernization comes as the kingdom also faced a need to make a transition out of dependence on fossil fuels. Salman sees trips to Greece and Turkey as opening up to all sides. Saudis have good relations with Israel and Egypt another part of this openness. The US senses this, India has sensed this. India's Modi government  made sending the Oxford vaccines manufactured in India to Saudis a priority during 2021. The Indian example is also changing the way the UAE and Saudis see infrastructure development and modernization in the region. This is also changing the way the region is looking at itself. For decades Egypt lacking the resources to build infrastructure on its own has languished economically. A helping hand from the Saudis is changing Egypt. The entire rail system is being modernized with the latest technology from Siemens. The Saudis have stabilized the Egyptian economy with a $5 billion deposit in the Central Bank of Egypt. On June 21 Egypt and Saudis signed $7.7 billion in investment deals for infrastructure, logistics, port administration, food, industry, medicine, energy and technology. In the investments in Egypt some of the oil money going to Saudis with $100 per barrel oil price is going to an economy in Egypt that can easily absorb and make good use of the investment to modernize.   The influence of Saudi leverage in fossil fuels which drove the US relationship with Saudis since FDR is being replaced with an independent Saudi kingdom making decisions to modernize across the board in all aspects compared to one that favored a few American companies such as Exxon Mobil and ARAMCO or arms makers such as Boeing and Lockheed that helped recycle American money going to pay for Saudi fossil fuels back to America.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Consideration is a term being used in Detroit auto company marketing efforts, if a customer gives little consideration to a company or brand or if its not on his list of brands or companies to consider, then snap you are not even in the running. The customer does not even visit your dealer showrooms, and no matter how well you make your cars its not going to make a difference. It has to take a lot of neglect of customers for this sort of situation to arise, but its exactly the situation Detroits auto companies face. They are trying marketing ploys such as this one by Ford's advertising agency, but its impact is uncertain. The efforts at GM also focus on marketing but again efforts to put Honda Accords and Toyota Camrys in Saturn dealerships next to the Saturn Aura, for side by side test drives have not had much impact on Aura sales. So a similiar effort for the Chevrolet Malibu in Chevy dealerships has been scrapped. There is even skepticism that a lifetime warranty on engines and transmissions by Chrysler on its vehicles will have much impact, so large is the customer resistance and ingrained perception of American car manufacturers. Over time perceptions may change but it will take a while to convince the American customer who feels he was once treated with disdain, and who will give a good hard look at things before he changes his mind. The figures bear this out. Years of neglect of car buying public and focus on SUV's and trucks is showing up in a 51.3 % share of the market for the American Three companies down from 60% 4 years ago. So half the market has pretty much been conceded to the likes of Honda and Toyota. Actually in the West and East coasts the numbers probably range to 60% and 70% depending on the local area in these 2 regions. So that means more established dealerships for cars, years of marketing effort focussed on cars, sales contacts and so that may take years to dislodge to any degree. The figures behind consideration by JD Powers show that 54% of car buyers are import loyalists, a slightly higher figure than the 51.3% showing that the trend is even more defection to imports in the 1-3 years ahead. And 22% consider both domestic and import cars. With this segment there is more selection in the imports beause only now are the American Three carmakers building up their car model lineups, especially Ford, so this will be ahard fought segment with no certainty that the Detroit Three carmakers will come out on top given the lead and established networks of the carmakers like Toyota and Honda. Only 25% are domestic or American carmaker loyal. A lot may depend on the way a customer is treated from reading letters to the editor in the media by buyers of US and import cars. A car buyer treated with no respect and sincere concern for his needs and preferneces is likely to remember the treatment for a long time. Not just products but attitudes and people in sincerity will have to change....

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that even though the economy has the lowest unemployment and inflation has dropped significantly, wages of working class Americans are up significantly, there is a huge infrastructure building effort, and investment in Make in America, there appears to be a disconnect when people are asked about the economy. Many tend to say they are personally better off yet the economy is not doing so well which is not reflected in  what is happening on the ground. Part of the problem could be the pandemic and the economic difficulties of the last three years that is only now gradually changing for the better and that the benefits of the better economy have not reached all people. Part of it is also a reflection of culture and other wars where opinion on social issues is transferred to the economy whether it is real or not. The extent of the culture wars has grown and sometimes been stoked for personal or party interest to affect the true civic responsibilities of the people to offer their best judgement based on careful understanding and reflection. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Turning Open AI into for profit after starting as a supposedly altruistic tendency venture has opened new fault lines in the company with many people leaving. The AI is now becoming a kind of gold rush with companies putting huge price tags on talent and committing some of the nation's limited capital resources into directions that lead to the massive waste that led to economic crises in the 1930's. It is reported that it will put major stress on the grid and on electricity resources and that Tech companies do not want to pay for this. The government needs to act boldly with its own "bold persistent experimentation" to find solutions where the Nation keeps its edge in many emerging technologies yet does not waste resources, or divert resources from other purposes that are vital to the better lives that all Americans aspire to. These needs are in housing (3 million new homes), in small business uplift, in renewable energy and climate change action, in education to lift NAEP scores, in early childhood education, and in healthcare. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Fed and FDIC issue a report on the failure to regulate SVB and Signature bank. It says the failure to regulate stems from the law passed by Congress leaving a gap for regulation of mid sized banks, and the appointment of Randall Quarles to the Fed supervisory position by then president Trump in 2019. The result was a 40% decline in hours spent by supervisory regulators on the SVB bank even as its assets grew rapidly. Overall the supervisory hours for the Federal Reserve system as a whole declined. This led to cultural issues under Mr. Trump where less regulation the better was the prevailing attitude. Fed report in Fedspeak says- "Staff felt a shift in culture and expectations from internal discussions and observed behaviour that changed how regulation was executed." It would take a special effort by the Biden administration to bring the situation under control to keep the nation's banking system healthy and strong to support the investments the economy needs. After the 2009 crisis and the decade lost to the US economy and the American people from losses in unemployment and savings as a result of deregulated banks, another crisis was prevented. This time the Fed, FDIC, General Accountability Office are all clear about the value and role of regulation in a properly functioning economy, instead of the pushback after the 2009 crisis to regulation. Once again president Biden has shown the way.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
As David Calhoun steps down from Boeing following the stepping down of the previous CEO Muilenberg, both for quality issues at Boeing this report in Yahoo Finance by Allan Sloan shows the effects of the accounting training and lack of awareness and conviction to put Quality uppermost. Calhoun joined GE at the time when Jack Welch was running the company. The book by David Gelles looked at Welch's period at GE with concern because of the use of accounting methods and finance businesses to make results look better- "How Jack Welch Gutted the Heartland, and Crushed the Soul of Corporate America." Over the decades in which one sees American manufacturing neglected one also sees the rise of executives in finance who ran companies in America that showed little interest in the hard work of manufacturing and surrendered leadership to first Japan and then China. Boeing CEO Calhoun is shown as another of the CEO's from GE who trained  under Welch who joined Boeing and other companies.The adjoining video in WSJ points this out after the Alaska Airlines incident and other incidents of flawed plane design and manufacturing- the basic problem being a lack of Quality and Worker and Quality practices Friendly Culture at Boeing. WSJ says three layers of quality checks are essentially worthless without a emphasis on worker training, on quality culture, cost cutting to get planes out the door, and lack of investment in Quality Control and Inspection. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
When shortages of wheat following the war in Ukraine are causing a crisis in some countries such as Egypt and Africa, there are other unusual changes  as emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian Real and the Chilean Peso, South African Rand are increasing in value. Even with the strengthening of the US dollar the supply chain disruptions are benefiting exporters of soyabeans such as Brazil and Argentina, and copper such as Chile with strengthening of their currencies. The Brazilian Real has strengthened by 13%. The WSJ calls it the sharpest commodities rally in modern trading history. One analyst says this is unusual how emerging market currencies could rally in the first quarter of 2022 with war in Ukraine, supply chain disruption, strengthening dollar reaching almost parity with the euro.  Today this is a positive sign for the Free World in Latin America. Currencies weakening are ones in countries exposed to a sharply slowing Chinese economy and rising energy costs such as Thai Baht and South Korean Won.  Brazil's central bank is also increasing its lending rate to the highest level in 5 years. Other American allies in Eastern Europe such as Poland which has taken in 3 million Ukraine refugees are also seeing a strengthening currency in this new situation. The National Bank of Poland increased its key lending rate by three quarters of a point to 5.25% which has attracted investors to the Polish currency the Zloty. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the WSJ by Peterson and Hackman shows how the American Health Care Act proposed by Speaker Paul Ryan provides less financial support and allows premiums to go higher for seniors approaching retirement in the 50-64 year age group. Premiums are allowed to go up 5 times that of premiums of young people in the Ryan House  plan compared to 3 times in the Affordable Care Act. Subsidies in the form of tax incentives provide $2000 to younger people going up by age not income to $4000 in the Ryan House plan. By contrast someone 60 years old making $20,000 a year can get Affordable Care Act credit of $9874, and making $40,000 a credit of $6752, according to analysis by Kaiser Family Foundation. The Ryan plan makes health care costs lower for young people in an effort to bring more young people who use less services into the system to support its overall financial condition. Another feature of the Ryan Plan is that it allows only for CPI index +1% even if health care costs are rising faster. Deep cuts to Medicaid affect lower income seniors on Medicare. As a result the AARP organization representing seniors has come out in opposition to the Ryan bill. The GOP plan wants to reduce premium costs yet in the process it makes vulnerable seniors with lower incomes pay more, which is likely to hurt Republicans who won by winning a large part of the senior vote. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A wind farm out at sea to start in 3 years, small renovation projects across France and Germany, a couple of billion dollars from the French government for home renovations- this kind of approach is considered completely unrealistic say EU legislators. One Danish legislator asks what is more unrealistic? Setting serious targets for conversion to renewable energy or depending on Putin's gas and oil?  These EU legislators are calling for aggressive action now. The European Commission set a 9% goal for energy savings by 2030, this has now been moved up to 13%. EU legislators are calling for 23% in savings by 2030. And even this may not be enough to meet the goals for climate change to prevent the disaster from climate change with fires and floods and heat waves that hurt agriculture and food supplies. A savings target of 19% is about the gas that runs 40% of the cars and trucks on American roads in 2021 or 214 million metric tons of oil. The French government has set aside 3 billion euros for comprehensive renovations of homes to save energy with a target of 300,000 homes in 2022. This is completely inadequate as it will cost 23 billion euros say experts on the Paris city council. Renovations are only running at 60,000 a year. A big part of the conversion in Europe is converting from gas heating to electric heating. France is boosting subsidies for new electric heat pump installations.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT pulling back student lending as a way to get universities and colleges to reduce prices. This is the first time any administration has done this. Universities have increased prices to the point where costs for tution are no longer affordable by a majority of the American people, and are now beyond the reach of the middle class or the working class of the Nation. Universities through management not sensitive to the Nation's needs and the needs of the American people, have kept raising tution to the point that it can cost more than the average salary in the US of $66,000 and more than 1.5 times the after tax income of $50,000 just to pay tution for an undergraduate degree- simply outrageous that educational institutions had forgotten their mission.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in WSJ looks at the impact of the 2018 Trump tariffs retained by president Biden as the US seeks to reduce its overdependence on Chinese imports and bring back American manufacturing. This followed misguided policies of previous administrations since Clinton that weakened American manufacturing strengths. Have the US tariffs on Chinese goods worked? The WSJ graph with information from US Census Bureau shows that imports from China in 2022 going down to the levels in 2007 of about 16-17% as a share of US imports, down from a high of 21% before the Trump tariffs halted a rapidly rising curve. Imports from Germany, South Korea and Japan in 2022 were down slightly hovering around 4.5%. Imports increased from Canada and Mexico, the US's traditional partners in North America, around 13.5% as a share of US imports for each country. Also increasing were imports from Vietnam. Some of the imports from Vietnam are Chinese products shipped through Vietnam to evade tariffs, and it is not clear whether the figures from Vietnam have been adjusted for this. President Biden is looking at different scenarios in an effort to tackle inflation. One supported by Janet Yellen, an economist at US Treasury is for the US to relax some of the China tariffs. Most economists in previous administrations including Yellen failed to understand what surrendering American manufacturing to China on the scale and speed that happened would do to communities across America that depended on factory jobs. The devastation of these communities has led to increased divisions in America, weakened American manufacturing, and led to outflow of technologies vital for national security and national well being.  Republican senators, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are opposed to any relaxation of tariffs. Studies show the removal of the tariffs would have only a small impact on the consumer price inflation index reducing inflation by 0.26%. Lifting some tariffs on school supplies and summer bicycles as proposed by the US Chamber of Commerce would have little or no impact on the consumer price index for inflation. This is because the inflation is triggered by oil and gas price increases stemming from the Russian policies and invasion of Ukraine. This has also aggravated food and grocery costs  through blocking of agricultural imports from Ukraine. An additional factor was the increased demand after the pandemic easing in 2022, but that demand is already easing in July with glut in inventories at Walmart and Target, and excess warehouse capacity at Amazon. It would also send the wrong signal to China that the tariffs imposed by president Trump after a Section 301 trade investigation and based on improper loss of technologies to China are not being taken seriously by the US, says Republican Senator Hagerty of Tennessee. The Labor advisory committee to the US Trade Representative Katherine Tai also opposes any such move after the serious damage done to US workers and to US national well being and security. This happened under the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations with failed trade policies that ceded manufacturing to China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Financial markets and investors now see the uncertainties emanating from tariffs negotiations as temporary and unlikely to affect corporate profits and the US economy says this report in WSJ. When the EU requested an extension with EU president Leyen calling DJT on May 27th, Trump who had said the EU was dragging its feet on trade negotiations with the US, granted her request. Leyen promised to speed up the negotiations with the new deadline of Juy 9, 2025. Trump had called for an across the board 50% tariff on all EU products if the EU continued the lack of response. In this way DJT called the bluff the Europeans were playing seeking to portray the American tariffs negotiations in an unfavorable way.  How did markets respond? The S&P 500 increased by 2% on May 27th when it became clear that a trade settlement was likely to be reached in 6 weeks. Earlier DJT had met with Mark Carney of Canada another key trading partner and come up with an understanding on moving forward. DJT has shown flexibility with advice from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who has experience with and carefully followed financial markets. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Hancock County, Iowa, is one of those rural counties in the American heartland that did not support Mr. Trump in 2016. This county now supports Trump by a large margin because they see his policies benefitting rural America, and see him as a way for the Republican party to be back in power to pursue a conservative agenda. WSJ reports from Hancock County in Iowa. The American voting system gives more importance to states with smaller populations in the Electoral College relative to larger states. States with large farming communities such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa play a larger role in elections in the US than population alone would suggest. John McCormick of the WSJ talks to farmers in this rural county in Iowa with a higher proportion of less educated voters than the rest of the counties in Iowa. One of five voters have a bachelors degree in Hancock County compared to one in three in Iowa as a whole and 38% nationally. The median age is 44 years compared to 39 years nationally and in Iowa. This part of rural Iowa is also in farmland that is many miles away from large cities and urban areas and more isolated and homogenous as 9 out of ten people are non-Hispanic and white. About a fourth of these voters are supporting his candidacy over Nikki Haley because they see it as more likely to win because of polls, even though Haley is according to the WSJ editorial opinion the stronger candidate for Republicans across the suburbs critical for 2024, which are slightly younger, more educated, and less isolated from the rest of the country. Biden and Obama are a sharp contrast when it comes to rural America. Where his own Agriculture secretary felt rural America was neglected by president Obama, Biden truly cares for rural America and has huge investments in rural America as part of the rural infrastructure effort. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
As deflation takes hold in China, the lessons of US relations with China that were handled by business to maximize profits that caused climate change and destroyed the environment, and caused deindustrialization in the US show the need for a wiser approach on both sides. Consumer prices in China declined 0.8 of percentage point in January over previous year. People in Hong Kong cross the border to shop in city of Shenzen for lower priced goods. These are the first signs of deflation in China. This is the beginning of a repeat of Japan's experience of the last three decades. Rapid growth followed by unsustainable growth after 2000 in China created problems for the environment and climate change because the growth was compressed into a few years and China's size. The experience of Japan's growth in the 1980's was repeated but this time on a scale that reflects China's population of 1.4 billion people compared to 125 million for Japan. The result many American factories unable to compete with lower costs in China closed in 2000-2015 leading to a general decline in towns and communities across the US destroying livelihoods.The effect is magnified as the support services jobs and wages that go with factory jobs magnifies the effect on jobs by a factor of three or four. The result is a situation that did not have to happen this way hurting both the climate and supply chains, hurting both America and China as business interests in both countries made short sighted decisions. As America diversifies from concentration of supply chain in China, into India and Vietnam, the process needs to be such that it benefits both the American and Indian people not be allowed to be left to business alone to determine as happened with China. This is one of the lessons of this period. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The lack of economic opportunities for an increasingly urbanized African younger generation is a major challenge. The median age of 19 makes Africa the world's youngest continent. Megacities are growing up in places such as Lagos and Kinshasha as millions leave subsistence farming to go to cities. Unlike Asia and Latin American countries men and women are coming to shantytowns in cities at a time when Africa is much poorer for a similar level of urbanization that Asian and Latin American nations reached decades earlier. In 1993 this WSJ analysis and graphs show the Asian emerging economies and sub Saharan Africa had similar GDP per capita of $2415, by 2019 this was $4000 for Africa and $12,000 for Asian emerging economies. Latin America was at $10,000 in 1993 and in 2019 was at about $15,000. The gap widened considerably between Asia and African countries. Asian emerging economies increased GDP to 5 time from the same starting point as Africa in 1993, Africa doubled GDP over the period of 25 years to 2019. Latin America started from a much higher point and increased GDP by only 50% over 25 years. Asian economies that performed better over this period did better because of stable even entrenched governments such as in Singapore with Le Kuan Yew and in China with stable successive governments under CPC leadership of prime minister Deng. The difference in Asia was a commitment across all classes and groups to development, a sense of development as a way to make up for the years lost under colonialism of foreign powers in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. A sense of correcting historical injustice and wrongs. This is a missing ingredient in the processes unfolding in Latin America and Africa in the last 25 years. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The two incidents in July 2016 of shootings of police officers on July 7 with five killed in Dallas, and July 17 with 3 killed, have led to deep anguish among the 900,000 state and local law enforcement officers in the U.S. Videos showing shootings of African-American young men have led to protests in cities, and attacks by persons on the fringe. Police officers say they are now worried about their safety because of the ambushes in Dallas and Baton Rouge, and are taking extra precautions.

LyrArc Article Gist
Carlos Tavares runs Stellantis the company that combined the operations of France's Peugeot, Italy's Fiat and America's Chrysler right out of his living room in his Lisbon, Portugal home one week every month. He is a believer in the advantages of hybrid work model and says most of the 75,000 workers at the company can work remotely most of the time.The quality time that is generated in this new work model that allows life balance and getting fresh air walks outside is needed when you consider that auto companies such as his are embracing world of electric cars- Stellantis will have 75 models of electric cars by 2030 In this interview with the WSJ shown here he says the fact that one is giving back high quality time that otherwise goes to commuting means you get more time during the day. Carlos Tavares says remote work is an opportunity to recreate a better life balance. He doesn't see any risk in it at all. He sees how hard people are working, harder than they did before, and says giving back one half hour or two hours of quality time actually helps the process of getting good work. Look he says after a long day of remote work people need that time to go out and have a walk for an hour just to refresh one's mind, because the work was so intense. Tavares asks why shouldn't we trust each other? He believes it is the only way to go. Asked about his own work routine for remote work.He says it is the Portuguese routine of  7 am to 4 pm or 5 pm and then an hour out for a walk. He has a small desk in his living room, and he is sitting there with his iPad, grandkids are going by but nobody sees them. Does he miss the face to face contact? He does says Tavares. He still sees other employees as he does go to the office. What about mentoring for junior  employees? This does not have to be five days a week, you may want coaching one day a week, what you don't want is someone on your back five days a week. For Tavares it is all about the quality of time that is used. On company culture the much abused word Tavares makes some good points. If you say this is the culture and hand it to somebody then how do you get that creative mind to exercize his own judgement, how do you get diversity of thinking. Tavares is forthright and honest here- he says if I give you a culture and put you in that box I will get it wrong, and by killing the valuable diversity of thinking I will make it counterproductive. Actually with French, Italian and American operations under one roof and employees of 170 nationalities there is a value in appreciating the value each employee can bring. Practices at Stellantis- Tavares says if you want your people to be in game shape or in great shape mentally don't call them or email them on weekends, so that they can use the weekend to recharge themselves. He even apologizes for calling on a weekend. Or if you email your people tell them to not respond till Monday. ...