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China's trade surplus increased to $18.4 billion in April from $5.4 billion in March. Exports were up 4.9%, slower than expected and down from 8.9% in March. But imports went up by only 0.3%, much lower than March's 5.3% increase. The hopes for improving the trade balance in recent months may be dashed because of slowing imports for infrastructure development, as economic growth slows in China, even as export growth declines from its earlier high levels.

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The effort to shift China's economc growth away from the rampant overbuilding in housing and industrial capacity of the past to domestic consumption, and focus on meeting the demand for better medical care, quality of food, education and other quality of life products. China's leaders met at the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing in Dec. 2015 to work out ways to make this shift so that growth rate of 6.5% and other goals can be met. Plans include reducing industrial overcapacity, dealing with overinvestment and unused inventory in housing, reducing financial risks from high corporate debt to GDP ratio approaching 160% estimated by Standard and Poors Ratings Services. By comparison the U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 70%. A steep rise resulted from the huge China stimulus program of 2008-2009, when the ratio was 98% for China. Experts such as Derek Scissors of the American Enterprise Institute are pessimistic about the prospects of successfully implementing reforms, saying reducing industrial overcapacity was a goal of the new Jinping Li-Keqiang leadership in 2013, but not much progress has been made in 2 years....

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President Trump wants to see China lower fentanyl exports to the U.S. because of a worsening opioid epidemic. The trade disputes extend into areas that have no direct connection but affect the U.S. and Mr. Trump's commitment to tackle this issue.  This report says president Trump expressed dismay on this issue.

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Landers and Gale of the WSJ show how undersupplied conscript soldiers, high inflation and industrial breakdowns during wartime have led to major upheavals in Russia. Three conflicts led to such changes in Russia's domestic situation. The Russo-Japanese war in 1905 led to Russia seeing one fourth of 340,000 Russian troops killed in a battle near the Chinese city of Shenyang, and loss of most of its Baltic fleet in a Japanese attack on Port Arthur. The war ended with a peace treaty arranged by president Theodore Roosevelt of the United States. The Russian czar gave up most of his absolute powers in 1905.  In 1914 Ukraine was involved in regime change as the Germans fought to take Ukraine. The czar wanted to keep Russia's expansive sphere of influence. Without Ukraine's agriculture and industry and its population Russia would not be a great power, says an expert on Czarist Russia. At the time the Russian military was ill prepared in motorized vehicles and communications equipment, and industry lacked the ability to resupply the military. Inflation jumped leading to unrest and protests. Fighting in the First World War led to millions of refugees. In 2022 experts see the same old problem of seeking spheres of influence leading to wars, and the lack of sufficient ability to cope with prolonged wars when short wars were expected by the regimes in power in Russia. Dissent inside Russia and protests led to the abdication of Czar Nicholas in March 2017, and Bolsheviks led by Lenin seizing power in November of 2017. By 1979 Ukrainian leader Leonid Brezhnev was leader of the Soviet Union as Russia's economy could not keep up with modernization. Seeking spheres of influence Brezhnev pushed into a long war in Afghanistan in the mistaken idea that a quick strike on Kabul with a change in government would achieve Soviet goals in central Asia. By 1989 the Russian army withdrew from Afghanistan and in 1990 the protests led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of Russia as a separate country. Landers and Gale of the WSJ see these events in Russian history showing how wars have led to domestic changes and upheavals in Russia when leaders projected power beyond Russia's capacity to handle the results of conflict. Russia's economy is about the size of Italy or Britain say experts and its industry much smaller than the European Union economies and the US, Japan combined.  ...

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A look at countries in Europe shows different strategies for tackling coronavirus Delta variant as schools reopen in September 2021. Italy requires all teachers to carry a covid digital certificate that shows vaccination or PCR test results. France, Germany and Spain do not require vaccination for teachers to go to schools, and rely mostly on social distancing and mask requirements in schools. Britain not only does not require vaccination digital certificate, but also has not made masks and social distancing mandatory. Health experts say there are serious risks in this approach with mass return to schools and offices after August 2021, and the fall weather with more time indoors. This could lead to a surge in coronavirus as in the US where the reopening of schools and Delta variant has led to surge particularly in states such as Texas, Florida, California. In UK 65% of total population is now fully vaccinated, in Italy 62%. Teachers in Italy fully support the new rules. In Lombardy region with Milan as the capital, only 300 out of 300,000 workers returned to schools without the green pass, according to regional officials. Britain remains an outlier says this report in the WSJ, taking more risks than is proper at this time, and simply hoping for the best. Not the best strategy in this situation.   ...

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This Wall Street Journal editorial on August 18, 2011, says Texas Governor and U.S. presidential candidate Rick Perry made a poor choice of words when he called the Fed chairman's policies "treacherous or treasonous." While admonishing Rick Perry for the use of the wrong words, it says Perry has done a public service to draw public attention to Fed policies. These policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve- Bernanke's and Greenspan's- which allowed the tech and mortgage bubbles to develop and then engaged in loose monetary policies to correct its errors over a ten year period since 2000, should be the subject of debate. Current monetary easing has also added a large element of inflation, and some experts such as Kenneth Rogoff are calling for inflationary levels of 4-6%. Critics of Fed policy such as Allan Meltzer and some Fed governors of regional banks, including Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed, say the Fed has not given enough thought to the long term consequences of its actions. The U.S. needs to address these major changes in policy as serious issues with the public and presidential candidates engaged in the debate. They have everything to do with a vision of a future America....

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Arne Duncan describes the improvements in K-12 education in two regions of the U.S.- the District of Columbia and Tennessee between 2011 and 2013, shown by the 2013 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). The hard work of educators, parents and school officials is paying off and offers examples for other parts of the country, says Duncan. Lessons include facing the facts, not dumbing down by setting low standards. With higher standards Tennessee students were only 34% proficient in math and 45% in reading compared to the 91-92% with lower standards. Republicans followed up on the work of Democrats in the state. Soliciting feedback from critics and experts- the feedback was used to improve systems and learning to help teachers and students. Schools chancellor Kaya Henderson says improving teacher quality was critical, and so was academic rigor. Still Duncan says more needs to be done, this only shows the right direction for states lagging behind, and one should not get complacent. The other areas college enrollment and dropout rates need to be followed carefully. International PISA results still show the U.S. at 27th in math and 14th in reading of 65 countries- making this only the beginning in setting the future course for U.S. educational improvements....

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Hilsenrath points out that Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan's holdings of securities and loans has increased by 35% in 2008-2013 compared to an increase of 2, 3 and 5 times respectively in the assets of the ECB, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Experts in Japan say what was considered commonsense by Bank of Japan chief Shirakawa and others, that aggressive monetary policy doesnt work, is considered nonsense in other parts of the world. They say aggressive monetary policy was never tried and Shirakawa diluted its impact by saying he did not think it would make much of a difference. Communicating the right message to financial markets was part of the approach taken by Draghi at the ECB, Bernanke at the U.S. Fed and King at the Bank of England. Anil Kashyap of the University of Chicago agrees. He says the Bank of Japan missed its inflation target for 15 years. BOJ also bought shorter term bonds in its bond buying efforts, with maturities of three years compared to the average maturity of nine years for bonds being purchased by the U.S. Fed. This reduces the effect. The Abe administration is careful to present the approach as similiar to that in other countries, and intended to spur growth in Japan, which in turn should spur global growth. U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke has supported this effort. Prime minister Abe was on a visit to the U.S. communicating Japan's approach and winning support, something never done before....

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Amazon expands during the pandemic when retail on line delivery has helped people reduce trips to the grocery or retail stores. Amazon hired 427,000 people to expand its workforce to 1.2 million people by November 2020, 9 months into the pandemic. Almost doubling the employee workforce. These workers are mostly at warehouses, with some software engineers and hardware specialists. This includes hiring in India and Italy and is worldwide hiring. This does not include 100,000 temporary workers for the holidays, and 500,000 delivery drivers working for contractors.  Only hiring of 230,000 people by Walmart about 2 decades a ago in one year comes close. Walmart hired 180,000 people during the pandemic. Walmart has 2.2 million employees. With the expansion underway Amazon looks to become the largest private employer in the world in 2 years, say experts.  Amazon pay is $15 an hour after an increase of $2 recently. Its coronavirus safety practices have been upgraded after early criticism in April and May. Recent expansion in Italy and in India are also part of worldwide expansion after Walmart has pulled back from its worldwide expansion. This also shows how quickly major aspects of life are changing during the pandemic as some companies in online business are becoming more prominent than others. Target and Walmart have also increased in size. Best Buy has changed its focus with its conversion into a company that leads with personal service in online plus store hybrid retail and a focus on seniors and older people for healthcare service and product delivery. Companies are changing the way they run or getting a new life in remaking their business. This is also a time when other aspects of business such as social media are becoming evident. Subtle aspects such as reports of higher rates of mental depression through use of social media platforms. There is also the awareness that information technology companies in Silicon Valley generate most of their money in advertising and this advertising of $100 billion is only a small fraction of the $12 trillion U.S. economy. Should Silicon Valley based in California decide priorities on where capital allocation should go through the part it plays in moving startups based less on America's priorities than other considerations. Healthcare, education, cities, and infrastructure have not received funding they need and capital allocation by financial markets has failed the American people, as it has failed in Europe and other parts of the world for similar reasons. This has hit hard communities and people across the U.S. and Europe and also in Latin America, Africa and Asia, with the loss of manufacturing to China and other countries from the U.S. India and Europe. ...

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The story of how prime minister Naoto Kan's distrust of TEPCO, the electric power company operating the nuclear power plant at Fukushima, and of the bureaucrats in the government, played out in the first days of the nuclear crisis in 2011. Kan bypassed the crisis management system set up for just such a situation because of a deep mistrust of the collusion between industry and bureaucrats. Instead he relied on a close group of advisors, who felt that the company was not sharing all the information but could do little about it. This led to lack of direction in the crisis from the highest levels of government, including a lack of response to U.S. offers of support and assistance with nuclear experts and technology.

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Legal experts say Lufthansa faces significant liability claims from the 150 persons killed in the crash of Germanwings Flight 9525, beyond the $150,000 per crash victim established by international airline rules. The claims could be much higher in countries such as the U.S. and lower in Germany. Lufthansa's insurer Allianz would pay out the claims, with Lufthansa incurring higher future premium costs. Lufthansa said it was initially paying out 50,000 euros per person to relatives of victims. Airline insurance premiums were about $1.65 billion for the industry in 2014, according to Ascend Worldwide, with premiums down by over 50% since the Sept. 11, 2011, terrorist attacks, and were not affected by the loss of two Malaysia Airline aircraft in accidents recently.

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Experts point to several factors favoring a lawsuit by the EU against Google. Google's dominance in Europe is higher than in the U.S., with Google used for 90% of web searches in Europe. The case is easier to build in Europe because the EU commission acts as prosecutor, and EU judges in Luxembourg rarely overturn the commission's major decisions. The EU competition commissioner, Margrethe Vestager, who took office in Nov.1, 2014, sees the need to give smaller internet companies room to compete with Google as a definite priority. She favors setting a legal precedent through a formal court process, and says that "citizens and companies should see that we are willing to go to court if that is the right thing to do."

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This piece in the Hindusthan Times reminds us that it is not failure or success that determine our future and the quality of our life, but the way we respond. It takes the lines from Rudyard Kipling about both being impostors- "if you can meet triumph and disaster,  and treat both impostors just the same..." Experts say the important thing in both success and failure is to understand what one did wrong, and take corrective action. Some go as far as to say failure is an event, and it ended yesterday. This is the way athletes and other people who overcome challenges that we read about have approached a failure or disaster. Some overcome physical handicaps with such grit that we find our failure to be tiny by comparison. Take for instance an athlete with burns on his feet from a fire, who is told he can never walk again, and he comes back to win an Olympics gold medal in running. This is a true story from the 1936 Olympics of Glenn Cunningham who won the 1500 metres gold medal. ...

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Domestic tourist trips up 19% over 2019 in China as China opens up to tourism are leading to only a 1% increase in total tourist spending, as tourists are just plain thrifty. Food inflation that is 10-15% in the US is about a catastrophic 40% in Europe with creeping higher margins of grocery stores. Compare that with China where inflation is less than 1%. WSJ looks at Zibo a city in China that was like hundreds of smaller industrial cities in China until a government publicity campaign got about 4.7 million people to visit it for its barbecue pancakes. The prices were relatively inexpensive with two people eating for $20. Yet this type of tourism is not boosting the Chinese economy when exports are slowing and the construction sector is in poor shape financially. 

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The Trump campaign still operates on the basis of the idea "Let Trump be Trump." It is only now beginning the effort to set up a campaign organization for the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, intending to do this with with lean structure at the top. On policy proposals Trump says he will rely on experts in each field. For a tax plan he has asked advisors to come up with a plan that simplifies and cuts taxes, aids the middle class, tackles abuses such as corporate "inversions" and to "tax the paper pushing hedge-fund guys." Jeb Bush has adopted a similiar position in the tax plan he has announced. Trump appeals to voters with anti-establishment rhetoric appealing to the average voter, mixed with a dose of individual bravado. The political organization has Corey Lewandowski as campaign manager, Michael Glassner as national political director, Daniel Scavino as head of social media, and Hope Hicks as press secretary. Lewandowski's only experience is heading the 2002 re-election effort for Republican Bob Smith to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire, in which John Sununu was elected. The campaign lacks the experience and ground support for a long effort in the Republican primaries, and experts say it would face a vigorous television ad campaign from opponents as the primaries get closer....

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Krugman on taxes, Simpson Bowles and "low rates." He describes the U.S. under Dwight Eisenhower, a Republican president and war hero. A period which he describes in which unions had bargaining power, a third of workers were union members, and in contrast to to the 1920 business executives lived modestly and paid higher taxes. And yet the U.S. registered high rates of growth. There are several aspects to this period in contrast to the present that also need to be kept in mind. The post war booming economy after two decades of slow growth and war. Much of the present infrastructure in the U.S. was built during this period including the interstate highway system started under Eisenhower. The workers of developing countries of China, India and other parts of the world were not a part of the global labor force till the 1990's, with technology and transportation making global manufacturing a reality. The major factor in lowering wages and creating lower levels of unionized workers in the automobile as in other industries is the competition from lower wage labor in China and other Asian countries, and the presence of non unionized plants in the U.S. The choices made by economic decisionmakers of both parties in the last two decades, say experts including Fed chairman Bernanke, created a huge inflow of capital from Asia that led to housing and other bubbles, creating economic crises such as the one in 2008 and aggravating economic inequality. ...

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Experts in the U.S. say the U.S. made a mistake in not supporting the idea of a new financial institution to meet the urgent needs of development and infrastructure financing of Asia's developing countries. India, Australia, S. Korea, Britain, Germany, France and Italy are joining as founding members in 2015. China has offered leadership in providing resources for the new bank. Jane Perlez says China is looking for the best talent worldwide to help write the charter for the bank and to run it. It is a project pushed forward by China's president Jinping, and was discussed at the 2013 G-20 meeeting in Moscow as a critical part of the agenda. Laurence Brahm, who supported Chinese premier Zhu Rongji in 2001 for entry into the WTO, says it is natural for China to look for ways to use its extra capacity in steel, concrete and pipes to build projects in other parts of Asia, which would mutually benefit China and the region. Paul Haenle of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, says the U.S. lack of support is shortsighted, as the existing U.S. sponsored institutions World Bank and the Asian Development Bank are sorely lacking the resources to deal with the huge infrastructure challenges in Asia. China's Finance Ministry is looking for the best talent worldwide to write the charter and run the bank. Natalie Lichtenstein, a lawyer with 30 years experience working at the World Bank will write the bank's founding charter. ...

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ICBC's strong performance is largely because of the leadership of Jiang Jiangqing. Jinagqing was reluctant to engage in the large scale lending encouraged by the government during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. For this reason he is not popular with the leadership in the government and the Communist party. This could change considering the large number of loans from that period which are expected to go sour in coming years. The U.S., Spain, U.K. and other countries suffered from the effects of bad loans in the banking system and experts say China is not likely to be an exception. Especially considering the excessive lending during that period and slowing growth in China. When this happens Jianqing's banking skills and conservative approach is likely to gain increasing respect within China. Jiangqing has expressed the view that the last thing China needed was to go back to the situation in 2000 when China's banking system was weighed down with bad debt. One has only to look at the change in Spain where once respected senior IMF officials like Rodrigo Rato are now looked at very differently. Jianging's push for expansion overseas- so that ICBC does not end up being a regional bank- is not viewed favorably by the government, which looks for a domestic focus. ...

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Friedman describes the lack of decisionmaking, initiative and courage in the Eurozone, India and China to tackle difficult problems. During his visit to India he describes the problems India faces. A serious problem with lack of good governance within the democratic framework. India also has a growing population that will soon surpass China's population, which makes the task of development that much harder, with the small steps India is taking to move forward not making a serious impact. Azim Premji, chairman of Wipro, described it this way: "There is a complete lack of decision-making among leaders in the government. If prompt action is not taken, the country will face a setback. You must appreciate how serious it is." Friedman sees a similiar situation in the eurozone countries as new governments are being formed in Greece and Italy by Papademos and Mario Monti, both technocrats from the European Union. This has the added complication because these experts have not been elected. The fact that they have support and goodwill is because of the failure of the political class in Greece and Italy. The failure of the political class in the U.S. is evident from the stymied negotiations over the deficit, and the lack of leadership from President Obama....

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Under a new law going into effect on Oct. 1, 2017 and supported by Angela Merkel's government, all social networks will be required to delete within 24 hours "all illegal content." This is an effort to take immediate action against hate speech, libel and other illegal content. Companies could be fined upto $57 million. Germany's Justice Minister Heiko Maas said "we cannot accept that social networks ignore our laws." Mr. Maas says the voluntary effort setup earlier had not worked as the social media companies were too slow. The law now means the networks will devote more resources, with Facebook increasing the staff for this purpose doubling it almost from 4500 to 7500, showing that the problem had not been addressed the way it needed to be. The new law details 22 sections of the criminal code that social networks need to enforce. Including laws banning libel, character defamation, hate speech, insults against religions, offensive statements and privacy violations. Britain's May and France's Macron have also called the efforts of the networks insufficient. A similar law in the U.S. before the 2016 election could have saved the country from many of the problems arising from illegal content being posted, including damage to the image of the U.S., inciting deep divisions, racial tensions, hate rhetoric and defamation leading to coarsening of public dialogue and debate.  During 2016 many European leaders were exposed to hate speech including Angela Merkel. The social networks were slow to respond and did not take their civic duty as seriously as they should have considering the grave damage to the social and political fabric of the U.S. and the European Union countries. The governments also took time to act, studying the problem carefully before taking action leading to further damage, one reason the current legislation was passed quickly and decisively. Experts say other countries will act following the German example to preserve civil dialogue and strengthen democracy. ...

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The 2018 election in Mexico brings to power a party called The Movement for National Regeneration or Morena created in 2014 by Manuel Lopez Obrador, after he left the PRD. Obrador ran on the PRD ticket for president in the last two elections. Obrador won with 53% of the vote, about 30% above the vote gained by the next leading rival.  Elections for the lower house of parliament showed a steep drop from 204 seats to 45 seats for the PRI party which was in power under president Nieto. The next leading party PAN which ran the government before the Nieto term in office, and the centre left PRD, were badly weakened. PRD now has 21 members in lower house of parliament compared to 53 before. So deep were losses for the opposition parties such as PRI and PAN which alternately ran the government, and particularly the PRI which dominated Mexican politics since 1950, that experts see Mr. Obrador as replacing the PRI's dominance of politics with the centre left Morena. Morena's rise is a result of work at the grass roots level in Mexico just when the PRI was discredited for corruption and failure to maintain the rule of law. PRI candidate for president Antonio Meade was a U.S. trained former finance, foreign and social development minister who lacks grass roots activism support base. ...

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The Obama administration denied approval for the TransCanada Keystone pipeline. President Obama made it clear that the decision was made because of the "arbitrary" February approval deadline imposed by Republicans in Congress, and said this "is not a judgement on the merits of the pipeline." The administration suggested that TransCanada reapply. TransCanada CEO Russ Girling says the company is "fully committed to the construction of Keystone XL, and that it "will reapply for a presidential permit and expect a new application would be processed in an expedited manner to allow for an in-service date of late 2014." Experts say the U.S. could reuse some of the studies and analyses and that the process would take 18-24 months. Alberta's premier, Alison Redford, says she believes the project will get approved.

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GE's decision to exit the banking business ends a period of aggressively reducing taxes using GE Capital operations. This ended in disaster in the 2008 global fianncial crisis with GE shares down to $6 and GE needing a government rescue. GE reported in its securities filing that its tax rate of 10.3% in 2014 would have been 17% without the use of GE Capital operations to reduce taxes. Experts say GE's tax rate is lower using GE Capital because of doing business in lower tax jurisdictions overseas and global funding base. In 2013 securities filing cited in the Washington Post show GE taxes were an astonishing 4.2%. GE will repatriate $36 billion in overseas earnings as the first step and pay taxes to the U.S. Treasury of $6 billion.

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During this swine flu epidemic in Mexico a number of experts and organizations in Mexico and the U.S. worked well together and acted quickly. Dr Sada, a respected epidemiologist at Mexico's health ministry, Dr Lezana a top government epidemiologist, the director of the National Insititute of Respiratory Diseases in Mexico City, Dr Ruiz, chief of Epidemiology at a Oaxaca hospital, Dr Gerardo Lescas in Oaxaca, Mexico, who treated some of the patients, Frank Plummer a Canadian scientist who analyzed samples at a Canadian lab, and the Centers for Disease Control of the USA, moved rapidly to take action. This helped contain the swine flu epidemic in Mexico, and created a model for other countries faced with a similiar situation. This is a detailed account of how Mexico responded.

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Medvedev set up athink tank last year with Igor Yurgens as head , which was to come with new ideas for Rusian economy and foreign relations. He called for Russia to change course and work with the US and Europe t o work its way out of the crisis. T do this he told a seminar organized by the American Chamber of Commerce in Moscow, that Russia should create dialogue with the people, and experts should be brought into the discussions, and the government guys need to dialogue with both the people and these experts inside Russia and abroad. The suggestion is that policy should come out of vigorous discussion, and the government guys should consult, listen and they should win honestly in the discussions in this policy debate or change course as necessary. On Georgia and Ukrainian gas supplies cutoff, these wounds he says should be healed by making symbolic gestures to Europe and the USA, like the one that Vice President Biden made, in saying in Munich that the US needed to press the reset button in its relations with Russia. The Russian government says that the economy will contract by 2.2% in 2009....