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Nouriel Roubini sees a very difficult period ahead with political risks larger than ever.

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Shrinking GDP, tax revenue declines, and government aid to business and workers, is pushing U.S. debt to record levels. The Congressional Budget Office report shows federal debt to exceed 100% of GDP for 2020. It was 106% of GDP in 1946 after the financing of the second world war. Because the coronavirus pandemic is comparable to the second world war in scale of threat the government approved $2.7 trillion in aid relief.

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Speech by European Union President von der Leyen on her visit to India and signing Major Partnership Agreement : ‘The Consequential Partnership: Reimagining and realigning EU and India ties for today's world'-   "This world is fraught with danger. But I believe this modern version of great power competition is an opportunity for Europe and India to reimagine their partnership. In many ways, the EU and India are uniquely placed to respond to this challenge together. India is the largest democracy and soon to be in the top 4 of the world's largest economies. It is the leading voice of the Global South. Europe is a unique cross-border democracy and open economy. The largest trading partner for some 80 countries around the world. But this partnership makes sense not only because of our shared values or our close ties. Or even because of our respective geographies, demographies or economies. But it is because our interests in this hyper-competitive world align more often than not. We both stand to lose from a world of spheres of influence and isolationism. And we both stand to gain from a world of cooperation and working together. Because we can offer each other distinctive alternatives and tools to make ourselves stronger, more secure and more sovereign in today's world. The kind of offer that cannot really be replicated by others. This is why the EU and India have the potential to be one of the defining partnerships of this Century. And it is why it will be a cornerstone of Europe's foreign policy in the years and decades to come. So, I want this visit to be the start of this new era. Prime Minister Modi and I share the same view. It is time to take our EU-India Strategic Partnership to the next level. For our own security and our prosperity. For the common global challenges that we face. And for the benefit of our respective regions and our partners around the world." ...

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The concerns that China was going to overtake the US and become the largest economy is a misconception of how countries have developed through industry and technology. Britain and the other countries of Europe, Germany and France, went through rapid development in the 1930's and 1960's then at some point after saturation were relatively stagnant. China for the first time in 250 years of the Industrial revolution began to develop rapidly and urbanize in the 1990's. China is at that same point of saturation and it's economy moving to relative stagnation with 4% annual growth in 2026-2030 and 2-3% annual growth beyond to 2047. India is taking place of China as parts of India (large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra with population 500 million) can achieve 15-22% annual growth in 2026-2030. A quick idea of this can be seen here in the WSJ. China as a percentage of the global economy was 18.5% in 2021 and has since declined to 16.5% of the global economy in 2025. China was three fourth of the US economy when it peaked in 2021 and has since declined in 2025 to two thirds of the size of the US economy. As a percentage of the global economy China will go down to 12% over the next 5 years as India advances, and the population of US, Canada, Australia with their continental spaces continues to grow and with it GDP growth. This is validated from the Japanese experience of peaking at becoming 18% of the world economy by 1996 and then dropping by 2006 to about 11%, 2016 to 6% and 2025 to 4%. The combined effect is to reduce the size of China's economy as a percentage of the overall global economy at a point of time in the future 2030, 2040, 2050. Japan is a good example. There are other factors in play including technology and capital access as technology and capital shifts to other parts of the world where it can be better deployed and conditions are suited for rapid development as in India/Indonesia and in the US/Canada/Australia regions of 1.6 billion people and 450 million people from China (saturation overbuilding), the Middle East (wars and mismanagement). ...

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Merz at ease at Gandhiji's Sabarmati Ashram with Modi in Ahmedabad, India. An historic opportunity for the European Union and India, two of the world's great civilizations and with 2 billion people taking the first step to modernize the German and Indian economy by 2037 and 2047. 

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Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

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During the campaign and in the crucial Iowa primary Obama used newspapers, small and large, to get his ideas across. At one point he gave six interviews to one columnist for the Daily Times Herald of Carroll, Iowa, (circulation: 6,000). He chatted with reporters from papers like the Mason City Globe Gazette, Fort Dodge Messenger, and met with editorial boards of papers throughout Iowa. Some of these media may just be curious to hear a new kind of message, and Obama could use the communication skills developed in years of writing to express his ideas and his vision all in a casual setting, seeing faces, expressions, feeling the way the way people responded, and all the time listening to what they had to say. Now the same approach is to take world newspapers as another outlet through the Tribune Media Services which enables him to run an oped column in 30 papers around the globe. Here is the list: Arab papers are Al Wataan (Gulf States) Asharq Al Aswat (regional paper in Arabic), Gulf News (Gulf States), Saudi Gazette. European papers are: Corriere della Sera of Italy, Die Welt of Germany, International Herald Tribune of Paris, Eleftyropiea (Greece), Kristeligt Dagblad of Denmark, Le Monde of France, Lidove Noviny of Czechoslovakia, NRC Handelsblad of Netherlands, Svenska Dagbladet of Sweden, WPRost of Poland. South American papers: El Mercurio of Chile, Estado Sao Paulo of Brazil, Clarin of Argentina. South Asian and Asian papers: Hindusthan Times/ The Hindu of India, The News of Pakistan, South China Morning Post of HongKong, Straits Times of Singapore, Yomiuri Shimbun of Japan, Bangkok Post of Thailand. In South Africa the Sunday TImes, in Australia the Sydney Morning Herald, and The Australian, and in the USA, the Tribune papers which are Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Baltimore Sun. These are all distributed through the connection and means of the Tribune Media Services. The key point inthis communication effort is to signal something that may not have sunk in, in many parts of the world. A deep and all pervasive truth that is emerging from this crisis. We are all in this together in ways you can't imagine, as were in one boat and we float or sink in it together. Leave language, culture, borders aside, its aprofoundly new world in which the Obama story itself of multiculturalism may just be scratching the surface of really deep pervasive changes that are happening. Obama may actually not have hit this point hard enough. "Once and for all, we have learned that the success of the American economy is inextricably linked to the global economy.There is no line between action that restores growth within our borders and action that supports it beyond. If people in other countries cannot spend, markets dry up- already we have seen the biggest drop in American exports in nearly four decades, which has led directly to American job losses." This is dramatically proven by the latest Commerzbank estimates that show the 2 largest export based economies, Germany and Japan will see a contraction of GDP of 7%, USA 4% contraction and China, Eastern Europe and other parts of Asia and Latin America will also be impacted severely by the same phenomenon of markets drying up around the globe. And Obama offers the simple message that the United States is ready to lead, and asks its partners in the G20 to join with a sense of urgency and common purpose. Obama goes on to say that " we need not choose between a chaotic and unforgiving capitalism and an oppressive government-run economy. That is a false choice that will not serve our people or any people." ...

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This article in the Atlantic Council September 17, 2024, shows that the world may be fixating on the Straits of Hormuz when it should really be focusing on the Red Sea shipping for the Suez Canal. The Iranians ship 1.5 million barrels a day of oil through the Straits of Hormuz, and closing it off would close off the oil revenues that sustain its economy. Wald writes that even if the Iranians in a crisis would clsoe off its waters to shipping another route exists in the Straits of Hormuz through UAE waters when needed by oil shipping and it has been used by British ships. The Red Sea and Suez presents risks coming from Houthi rebels supported by Iran, who have attacked the US Navy ships in the region.

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The Iranian protests on getting the country's resources to focus on the standards of living, the economy and improving economic conditions led to crisis. A whole range of issues that include the development of nuclear weapons that divide the region and the world, a sense of lost direction in whole parts of West Asia for peaceful cooperation and development.

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China's GDP growth for the second quarter of 2012 was 7.6% from the prior year. China set a target of 7.5% GDP growth in March 2012. About half of the GDP growth in 2011 was generated from investment spending. As part of a new Stimulus China is increasing bank lending and moving forward development projects in energy and infrastructure. Bank loans showed an increase from 793 billion yuan ($124 billion) in May 2012 to 920 billion yuan ($144 billion) in June 2012.

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Modi BJP Win in West Bengal 2026- full speech on the future of Bengal, India, Indian democracy, India's modernization - May 4, 2026. For the first time most of India is now being led by state and federal governments that are aligned for rapid modernization, rapid development of infrastructure, industry and the economy. Madras, Bombay, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Vizag, Kolkata, Bhubaneshwar, Delhi, Noida, Bhopal, Dehra Dun, Srinagar,most of India's cities and urban areas, and the rural heartland of India all aligned for accelerated development under a Master Plan for the economy for the next two decades. This will close the gap with China to make India the third largest economy in the world, and a key support for the United States and the European Union. Seen through this lens many of todays reports and concerns fade into significance. The US and the European Union are not alone- they have the support of 2 billion people of India, and Indonesia and adjoining regions.

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“The world needs more energy. The world needs more resources, and U.A.E. wanted to be unconstrained by any groups” says UAE energy minister, Suhail Al Mazrouei. On May 1, 2026 UAE with 12% of OPEC cartel production (3.6 million barrels a day) will leave OPEC. It is a change in strategy of where and how to sell oil production in the future. UAE including Abu Dhabhi oil company says it is time for it to pursue its own national interests. As its economy is diversified including tourism and other sourcesd of revenue, UAE puts volume before price support. Saudis are not diversified and seek to maintain price support and keep fossil fuels way into the future. Qatar and Ecuador have already left the cartel. Since the old days of OPEC US has emerged as the largest producer, Venezuela is coming back as a major producer, changing the situaiton now that UAE is  also not betting on and supporting efforts for keeping prices high. This is good news for India and China, Japan, major buyers of oil and with large populations increasing demand. It also helps the US because of its diversified economy. ...

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In extended diplomacy Carney visits Beijing, China and says middle powers are seeking ways to interact and trade in a world of big power rivalry. His visit is followed by visits by UK's Starmer and Germany's Merz, and preceded by Macron. At the same time Merz visits Ahmedabad for a kite festival and signs a new trade agreement with India, followed by Leyen and Costa of the EU who sign a EU-India trade agreement for 27 countries of the European Union. All this suggests carefully planned effort in Europe to create new channels of trade and reorient existing trade relationships that will be more resilient with the US shifting to focus on Monroe Doctrine idea of the Western hemisphere as its region of influence and security. This report shows pictures of Starmer and Xi meeting at the Plough Pub in UK in 2015 and reflects on how this has changed 11 years later with China now  a dominant power with the world's 3rd largest economy and a third of world's manufacturing and logistics. How does this change the relationship with China in 2026 for UK and Canada, and the EU? At the same time Germany-India and EU-India relationship creates a 2 billion people market with capital, technology and labor potential to create the largest potential driven economic group in the world, combining EU's 20 trillion to India's $4 trillion economy and mutually complementing, which has potential to rival the US at $30 trillion by 2030 as India grows rapidly in the new EU/Germany/India market and the EU gets a new boost with the complementarity of the two regions by 2035. This suggests that something new is happening and Germany after a lot of soul searching have hit on something we should see blossom by 2030 in the way China has grown since that picture with Cameron of Xi at the Plough Pub in UK. A problem China faces as it continues to push exports is that EU/ India and US will take in less exports and there is only so much it can put in Latin American and African market, UK/Canada market leading to industries with massive oversupply. Major economic redirection may result from the Merz/Leyen/Costa visit and firming up trade agreements with India if the EU, Germany and India have the determination to seize this opportunity in the 21st Century. As Leyen said it has the potential to create a stable world with values of the Bible, the Bhagavad Gita, and Mahajima Nikaya of the Buddha supporting the industrial states that emerged from the Industrial Revolutions. ...

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A draft of the "Common Vision of the World Bank Group," posted online by Government Accountability Group provides details on how the World Bank sees its mission in 2013. The question relates to what the World Bank's mission should be in a world where develping countries such as China and India have made signficant progress. The fragile and conflict ridden states in Africa and in parts of Asia and Latin America will be critical parts of this mission. Yet a lot remains to be done in China and India, and the World Bank sees its role as facilitating the development of needed infrastructure in India and efforts to control pollution in China, better manage the growth of cities in both countries, and also work in the poorer parts of Europe such as Greece. World Bank president Kim sees the World Bank working with the private sector to ensure that infrastructure projects have "a transformational outcome" to help improve incomes of people struggling to join the middle class.

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EIA says half of the benefit of higher fuel efficiency standards for Automobiles 2010-2020 in US was lost because of SUV's and the incentivizing of SUV's in the 2006 CAFE standards have made things worse. The first SUV's came in the 1980's. By 2004 SUV's made up half of car sales and by 2025 outsold cars 2 to 1. What if we took all SUV's and large cars off the roads, or even some of these SUV's by deincentivizing of SUV's in the US CAFE corporate fuel efficiency standards? What would be the savings in crude oil and in carbon footprint? Would it be about the same as releasing an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the markets in addition to the 400 million barrels that are now released through EIA and member countries? This New Yorker essay touches on this idea. During the Iran war the volatile Middle East as a source of oil supplies is a major problem for countries. Some are rationing supplies and in one country 40 million children are not going to school for 2 weeks starting this week because of the sources of oil are so precarious, government offices will only have half of the employees, the rest working from home (almost like Covid pandemic). Many other countries face that situation. The International Energy Agency recently reported that, if “SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.” The agency says governments must redesign their CAFE standards and their policies so that it would reduce S.U.V. sales, tax gas guzzling vehicles. EIA cites governments in the EU doing this- “Some governments have already started introducing relevant measures, such as France and Germany, which have put a tax on large and high-emissions cars.” Within SUV's also there is an opportunity to reduce the size and make more efficient space utilization designs. Small savings also add up. One has to realize that the current freedom to use energy freely in places like the US with self sufficiency in oil comes with a sense of responsibility for using it wisely so that it can be exported to cut the trade deficit, precisely what the president is doing with India, to cut a trade deficit of $58 billion before it gets to $100 billion. Section 301 is already in place for investigations by the US of 18 countries for a new basis to use tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. A similar approach is taken with EU for hundreds of billions of reductions in trade deficit that will only strengthen the US dollar and the US economy in the long run , and be good for stock markets and jobs as it reduces oil prices and increases the manufacturing capacity/cost for the Nation. Europe, India and China can do the same. Remember that in 2010 SUV's made up 17% of total world sales, and by 2025 SUV's made up 46% of world vehicle sales. This would create another 400 million barrels for the oil markets, which would triple what was released through EIA  this week to 1.2 billion barrels and this would create 120 days of supply replacement for the 10 million b/d lost from Straits of Hormuz, and effectively end the Iran War as it would be clear that prices can be kept low even in the $50's. Essentially buying time till the SU can get more production in Venezuela and other parts of the world to replace much of the Middle Eastern oil that is ending up in a quagmire. This is the best way for the US and Europe, India, China to ensure jobs growth, economic growth with low cost crude oil in the $50 range and ensure much of the poorer countries like Egypt and Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, have access to oil at prices they can afford and eliminate poverty. ...

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In a shift from statements at earlier summits which focussed on fiscal restraint, the Camp David summit continued the "firm committment to fiscal consolidation," yet emphasized jobs and economic growth as "imperative." There is new flexibility to address needs for economic growth and no specific timetables for fiscal balance as in previous summits. Obama had many one to one encounters with the other leaders. He discussed the euro crisis with Cameron while working out on a treadmill, and watched the Champions League soccer final between Chelsea and Bayern Munich with Merkel and Cameron. Each leader of the G-8, Harper of Canada, Monti of Italy, Hollande of France, Medvedev of Russia, Cameron of Britain, Noda of Japan, Merkel of Germany, was assigned a cabin in the rustic wooded setting of Camp David's mountains. A special effort was made to see that Germany's Merkel did not feel isolated in the setting because of the growing sentiment that austerity policies pushed by Germany are not working. On Iran, Obama stated that he was "hopeful that we can resolve this issue in a peaceful fashion that recognizes their sovereignty, but also recognizes their responsibilities."...

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Kevin Warsh is a former governor of the Federal Reserve 2006-2011, becoming governor at age 35. He is a partner at the family office of investor Stanley Druckenmiller. Scott Bessent also had connections with the office of Druckenmiller. He is also a lecturer at Stanford Business School and a scholar at the Hoover Institution. He is married to Estee Lauder heiress Jane Lauder, and has spent the years since 2011 at the Stanford School.  Current Fed chairman was appointed by DJT in 2017 and retires in May 2026. If Powell continues as a Fed governor Warsh would take the seat vacated by Stephen Miran when he retires as Fed governor this week. Meantime the Fed under Powell faces an investigation by the Justice Department regarding renovation of its buildings and Senator Thomas Tillis on the Banking Committee says he will not support Warsh until that issue is resolved in favor of Fed retaining its independence. What is unique about Warsh and his selection by DJT? He is a Republican of long standing and his current views are that interest rates can be lower if the Fed reduces its holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage securities it holds. DJT's frustration is that Powell raised interest rates to fight inflation and after DJT became president was slow in cutting rates to boost the economy. DJT's resort to tariffs as a tool in world trade to ensure a level playing field with China when all other tools had failed means more uncertainty in the economy and DJT wanted the Fed to support his policies by lowering rates. ...

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US DJT Tariffs impact 1 year later- global trade has held up well with US unemployment at 4.4% and economic growth at 2.1%. China imports down from 20% in 2016 to 10% ten years later in 2026. For DJT that was a promise kept leading to a sharp decoupling of the US economy from the Chinese economy that was leading to huge trade deficits of 1 trillion dollars. Too much of the world's supply chain was tied up with manufacturing in China. It got so bad under Reagan, the two Bushes, Clinton/Obama that the US and EU were facing deindustrialization with huge risks to the future of the US and Europe as industrial powers. 150 years of industrialization and scientific advancement, the great achievements of Europe and the United States since 1860's was going up in smoke over reckless policies of Republican and Democratic elites who gave little thought and barely understood the long run effects of their policies and textbook theories of the economy. Most economists from ivy league universities got it completely wrong. ...

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Iran's economy following the naval blockade- WSJ cites assessment by Miad Maleki who led Treasury's sanctions campaign on Iran in 2025. Loss of $435 million of economic activity per day and oil shut ins in 2 weeks. As the Europeans sit out this naval blockade and US rethinks its participation in NATO, as the poorer countries in the world are affected by the shortages including Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and others around the world, the one baffling aspect is how far a nation (Iran)could let its economic prospects be affected to continue uranium enrichment. It is about the failure of another Middle Eastern nation to modernize and improve the living standards of its people, (after Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Syria and Iraq),  wasting a once in a centuries opportunity to do this wasting an oil dividend that will only last to 2035 when renewable energy may replace fossil fuels. Instead leaving the region with intermittent wars and destruction from the wars since 1950, falling behind in a world that is rapidly modernizing in China and India with about 3 billion people committed to modernization. ...

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Zeit Online shows in this article the continued efforts of the Russian government of president Putin to discredit Chancellor Merkel, following efforts to do this for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.  During the Ukraine crisis and the settlement accords of 2014 Germany was seen as a partner by Russia, following sanctions, and renewal of these sanctions Russia no longer sees Germany as a partner. This report shows Russian efforts to discredit chancellor Merkel and the use of RT German channel, WikiLeaks reports of Chancellor Merkel and the TTIP agreement, for the same purpose. The refugee crisis following what is happening in Syria with Russian involvement, terrorism, financial crisis aftermath from 2008, are being used  says Zeit Online to support a movement for "order" as the state ideology now put forward from the Russian government. This could be an early indicator for the 2017 German federal elections, says Zeit Online. Merkel has said that she supports continuation of western sanctions on Russia. It is hard to see what Russia has gained in improving its economy and the standard of living of the people from this type of political action. Putin was able to achieve economic goals during 2005-2010 using good Germany- Russian relations as shown in LyrArc. This was the earlier period of Putin's terms in office, with a broad group of advisors, including finance minister Kudrin, who set forward a prudent economic course for Russia including foreign investment. The world and Russia are poorer from the departure from this earlier set of policies which would have enhanced Russia's economic growth. Kudrin was fired in September 2011, and the economic course has gradually drifted away from what is most prudent for the Russian economy and growth, and for the global economy. Nationalism was part of an earlier period before 1950, that led to frequent wars and economic catastrophes. A new course has been set since then, especially by American presidents Truman and Eisenhower, and people in India, China, the developing world, in Europe and in the U.S., would see little to gain from the politics of that earlier period in world relations.  ...

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Rep. Wesley Hunt is flown to Washington from campaigning in Texas to get the vote in the US House of Representatives to 215-215 on a War Powers Resolution on the president's action in Venezuela. He was driven directly to the House with escort from the Washington Dulles Airport by Capitol Police. Such is the drama in the House nowadays as Democrats look for ways to restrict the president's action in the international arena on the Monroe Doctrine. The resolution if passed would require Congress to authorize the action to deploy troops. The Venezuelan action was taken quickly in a few hours bringing Maduro to the US. The US set a naval blockade of the country which has fallen apart with high inflation and mismanagement, corruption and drug trafficking after Chavez entered Venezuelan politics with a military coup in 1998 and set up an authoritarian government. When he died the power was handed to a person who lacked experience tackling a complex oil economy and inflation reached 1000 percent destroying the economy. The Monroe doctrine had fallen into disuse since 1824 and its revival in 1904 by Teddy Roosevelt which made it difficult for the US to take action in the interests of peace and security in its neighborhood free of European colonial powers. Russia withdrew from Venezuela after the Trump administration set a new start for US Russia relations based on "respect" for Russia as a power in Northern Europe. In 1824 the situation facing Venezuela and other South American countries blocked by president Monroe was intervention by France, Spain to collect debts.  President Teddy Roosevelt affirmed the Monroe Doctrine during his term 1900-1909 to ensure fairplay, democratic governance and good governance in the western hemisphere free of European powers. In 2026 much of this is being misrepresented in a torrent of what TR called "mendacity." The issue of Greenland and security for the Eastern seaboard of America from foreign powers is also getting the same treatment by the US and European press with no mention of Admiral Perry's discoveries in Greenland for the US Navy in 1890's, and Denmark as a colonial power which had no belief in representation of local people having transferred its colonies in Asia and other parts of the world to other nations for payment or in exchange of territory. The entire population of Denmark of 6 million is smaller than the Houston area and the entire population of Greenland of 50,000 would not fill a baseball stadium, and yet it seeks to block US security for the entire eastern seaboard of  North America from foreign powers in 2026 after it did so in 1947 when Harry Truman offered $100 million for Greenland, as the Cold War intensified in Eastern Europe. ...

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For 2025 US stocks S&P 500 returns 19%, foreign stocks in Europe 36%. An extraordinary year for foreign stocks with Germany's big investments in the economy. Actually the average S&P stock was down 3.7%. It was the large investments in AI that propelled the US stock markets S&P 500 to the 19% gain.  AI investment may take a long time to be profitable and some companies may lose money yet the building of data centers creates demand for construction activity, and tariffs are bringing larger investments into the US economy. Media skeptical about tariffs led to many missing the surge in stocks. It was the same overseas after years of Merkel and limits placed in the constitution on needed spending, and the SPD coaltition struggling to get through FDP obstruction to investment spending. Chancellor Merz of CDU joined the SPD to make a big $1 trillion investment in German infrastructure and defense, and removed the constitutional brake on investment Merkel had unwisely put in, with so much of Germany's infrastructure and digital in bad shape. This pushed up European stocks that had languished under the austerity logic of Cameron/Johnson-Merkel. This also was missed by many as the old logic was suddenly and quickly taken out with Russia emboldened in Ukraine taking over much of the eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. Defense is now a rapidly growing part of the German economy. 2025 was a year of sudden and rapid change in the world economy with tariffs, US investment deals, and Germany taking on defense and infrastructure, which few could predict. And in which the media created confusion by saying the opposite of what was required from investors. ...

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Modi's BJP party wins in West Bengal, Assam and Pondicherry, with new TVK party in Tamilnadu. It is avcotry for good governance as the BJP and TVK promise good governance. The BJP has brought good governance since it won the national election in 2014 and 2018, 2022, 2026. And gradually won state elections in Delhi, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Bihar, Orissa last year. This enables the whole Indian economy to advance rapidly in industrialization, modernization, and Vikshit or Developed Bharat vision for 2047 (the 100th year of independence). In the years ahead India's economy is likely to close the gap with China to become the third largest economy in the world. In 1950 India's and China's economy were the same size. This situation is likely to happen in the next two decades. Yet this win today gets no media coverage in the WSJ, in Washington Post, The Guardian and only lower down in the page on the NYT without grasping the significance and BBC covers it only marginally. Only the German DW.com has non stop coverage. The established media is ignoring what is happening to 2 billion people, bigger than the story in the Gulf with 7% of the people in South Asia which is cluttering the pages of the established media, and coverage of the teapot refineries in China that get most of that oil on China's coastline. Ignoring the enormous enthusiasm and energy that has been unleashed across India in the last 12 months for a modernized India Vikshit Bharat 2047 built on good governance, infrastructure building and technological innovation, scientific advancement after 1000 years of waiting. ...