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The European Union is making good use of the crisis in Ukraine to ramp up its shift to renewable energy. This WSJ report shows charts of where the EU is focusing its efforts from conservation, heat pumps, hydrogen, to wind and solar. Wind and solar show massive increases by 2030. By 2030 the European Union plans to increase wind and solar energy from 20 billion cubic metres to 170 billion cubic metres according to estimates from The European Commission shown in this graph by WSJ.

By the end of 2022 two thirds of Russian natural gas imports to the EU will have been replaced and by 2030 all of such imports will be replaced. 

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The work on the 760 mile Nord Stream pipeline- connecting Germany to Russian natural gas supplies from Siberia- was completed in September 2011. The natural gas flows through the pipeline under the Baltic Sea. The project was completed at a cost of 8.8 billion euros. Gazprom will provide secure longterm supples of natural gas to Germany. The secure supplies take on new significance with Germany's decision to phase out nuclear energy.

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In 2024 one third of the mortgage payment is the average cost of insurance and taxes. Insurance went up with natural disasters fires and floods, taxes go up as home prices surge as they have in 10 years without enough new housing being built.

 For half of people in 5 major Metro areas, Rochester and Syracuse in NY, Omaha in Nebraska, New Orleans, and Miami, at least a quarter of borrowers spend more than half of their mortgage payment in insurance and taxes. Nationwide in US 9%, up from 4% in 2014 spend more than half of their mortgage payment on insurance and taxes.

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The Turkish example is proving how difficult it is to get effective international sanctions against the development of nuclear weapons without the cooperation of the international community. A recent surge in gold exports from Turkey to Iran, or to Iran through the U.A.E., is the result of Turkey using a loophole in sanctions against Iran to pay for natural gas and oil imports from Iran with Turkish lira. The lira is is then converted to gold to be sent to Iran. Under sanctions Iran is frozen out of the international SWIFT banking transactions system. Turkey imports 51% of its oil and 18% of its natural gas from Iran.Turkey's deputy prime minister tells a parliamentary budget commttee- "in essence gold exports to Iran end up like payments for our natural gas purchases. Turkey is depositing the payment for the gas we purchase from Iran to Iran's account in Turkey. I don't know exactly how they then transfer it." Turkish state run bank, Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS, is in charge of processing payments. Halkbank raised 4.5 billion lira ($2.5 billion)in Nov. 2012 in a secondary share sale of a 2.8% stake, according to the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Turkey's gold exports to Iran in the first 9 months of 2012 increased from $54 millon in 2011 to $6.4 billion. This is helping Turkey's problems with its high current account deficit from an unsustainable 10% at the end of 2011 to 7% 0f GDP. This helped Turkey with short term external financing needs by getting Turkey its first investment grade credit rating in twenty years. Two way trade with Iran for the first 9 months is at $18.8 billion, up from $16 billion in 2011, the $16 billion was an increase of 50% over 2010....

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The natural gas pipeline from Egypt supplies one fourth of Israel's electricity needs under a 20 year supply agreement. The pipeline generates $300 million for Egypt. The gas deal was signed in 2005. The gas deal is expected to triple in value in the next 5 years and observers believe that economic interests will prevail. Israel is expected to get 6 billion cubic metres or half of its natural gas supplies from Egypt in 2011, as it shifts from coal to cleaner burning natural gas for electricity generation. The other half comes from Israel's Yam Thetis offshore field which will run dry in 2014. This means Israel will push ahead with the development of the newly discovered Tamar offshore natural gas field.

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Report on Climate Science put out by the US Energy Department in 2025 questioning the severity and impending nature of climate change effects. It is challenged by scientists who believe in the severity and impending nature of climate change, quite the opposite. Koonin, a Fellow at the Hoover Instituion at Stanford describes the work and its conclusions. He says the research is peer reviewed and looks at 200 years of climate research. Some of the conclusions- That climate change models claiming catastrophic situations are ultra sensitive and lead to extreme scenarios.  It talks about climate variability, and model deficiencies, data limitations. And says data for climate over continental US show no long term trends for extreme weather events. Global sea level rise of 8 inches since 1800 is not disputed but it says US tide gauge data shows no long term acceleration in warming globe.  On one point there has been agreement even in the Biden administration- what the US does to cut emissions will little effect the global changes in warming- because of coal use by China and India defended as needed for electricity for two billion people, an essential need. Thus the desire for a calculated tradeoff which lets the US take advantage of its abundance of oil and gas to reduce the cost of living for ordinary Americans, also an essential need. Because of the declining cost of natural gas vs coal, coal is in gradual phase out, and declining cost of solar means Germany, China, India are making the shift to solar, and nuclear energy provides another option. The difference is that the DJT administration is taking government out of the effort and letting the private sector work out building of renewable sources. Government is not always the answer as electric cars are likely to make more gains in 2026 than under the Biden administration because of VW, Mercedes, BYD, Ford and GM coming up with cars that can do close to 500 miles on one charge and the cost of an EV down to about $30,000 to $40,000. ...

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An important investigation by the Wall Street Journal looks at the 60 day sprint to find the origins of the Covid virus that killed about 6 million people worldwide, with excess deaths three times that. Did labs in the US and in China and scientists experiments cause this or did it happen naturally in the wilderness or in wild animal markets in China. Were other points of view excluded, asks the WSJ by NIC in it's 90 day sprint meeting with president Biden on August 24, 2021. WSJ Investigation says the FBI WMD scientist Banaan and scientists at the Defense Intelligence Council Hardham, Cutlip and Chretien were kept away from the president at a crucial final meeting of National Intelligence Council with Biden on the 90 day sprint to discover where this virus came from. Comparable is the  25 million people who died in the Black Death plague in Europe in 1348- Europe's population did not return to its pre-1348 level till the 16th century, says Britannica.  A scientist working at the FBI offices in Virginia Banaan was brought to main FBI offices for WMD to look into the origins of the virus in Feb. 2020. He and the FBI expected to be called in to see president Biden at a special meeting with Avril Haines, James Murphy of NIC. The FBI and Defense Intelligence Council scientists were not called in to see the president. Scientists on the DIC Council section on the Virus were not given a chance to share views or join the meeting by the Director DIC Scott Berrier who had his own theory on the virus, says WSJ. These scientists had done genomics research that showed a spike protein part of the virus that enable it to enter human cells was constructed in a lab, says WSJ. The WSJ investigation says the investigation sought by president Biden in a 90 day sprint was done with the National Intelligence Agency officials under Avril Haines, a State department official who joined the agency after the 90 day sprint, and James Murphy of the NIC who headed it's WMD section. WSJ report says the heads of Defense Intelligence Agency and NIC believed in what is called the zoonotics theory that the virus was of natural origins and simply transferred from animals to humans. A Lancet article in Feb 2020 by a group of scientists including Daczak of EcoHealth Alliance that supported coronavirus research at Wuhan had supported this theory in the interest of global cooperation to fight the virus but called any alternative explanations conspiracy theory, says WSJ, politicising something that should never be politicized.     ...

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Prime minister Modi's 5 commitments to get closer to net zero by 2030 will require making ambitious efforts starting from 2021. Modi cited Indian Railways as an example to be followed by the rest of industry and transportation, and homes, for the conversion to clean energy. Indian Railways, he told the COP26 conference, had set ambitious goals to achieve net zero emissions by 2030, cutting carbon emissions by 60 million tons from the 1 billion tons reduction of carbon emission Modi promised by 2030. The ambitious 2030 target of 500 gigawatts of renewable energy, mostly solar using new technologies, is another promise.  This Bloomberg report looks at India's energy mix today which is 44% coal, 25% oil, 6% natural gas, for a total of 75% fossil fuels, and the promise of 50% fossil, 50% renewable and other non fossil fuels hydroelectric, nuclear, that Modi made at COP26 Glasgow. Just as US and Europe, Japan, China have huge challenges ahead to make a massive transformation in record time, India faces the equal need to think clearly and embrace new technologies with speed and scale, and make the investments early for transformation. This is good for India to take on the challenge and venture out to seize the opportunities in new technologies that transform whole industries and a way of living that must be left behind. ...

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This report in DW.com shows that Germany is only now coming to grips with Merkel's policy to China. A policy that had no idea where the relationship was headed and no grasp of its implications for Germany in the way that Merkel's policy shaped economic relations with Russia with an overdependence on natural gas supplies. It is left to the newly elected Greens-SPD coalition to face the consequences of that policy as Germany faces rationing of gas for the winter between industry and households. Annalena Baerbock, Germany's Foreign Minister says clearly that it is unacceptable that force should be used in international relations. Baerbock told a UN conference - "We do not accept when international law is broken and a larger neighbor invades a smaller neighbor in violation of international law- an of course that also applies to China."  Clearly China and Russia are different in their economies and industry. China is the world's largest exporter and depends on international law and freedom of navigation on the oceans as a trading nation that it has become with over 1 trillion dollars in exports in 2022. It is through freedom of navigation on the oceans and respect for international law that an exporting and manufacturing nation that makes for export is able to conduct its affairs.    ...

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Seantor Dan Sullivan and the WSJ say Alaska's economic potential and its standard of living was ignored with blanket blocking of any development of its resources. WSJ says under the Biden administration the state was turned into a nature museum.  WSJ says the state's leaders know that spoiling the environment would be mistake. Yet developing some of the state's resources would help the US in sourcing natural gas and rare earth minerals for renewable energy products. This would achieve a policy balance. One of the arguments North Dakota Governor Borghum and new US Interior Secretary makes is that China is building a coal plant every 2 weeks with 12 built in the first 6 months of 2024. As of July 2024 Statista shows China with 1161 coal plants operational, 6 times the 204 US coal plants and 4 times the 295 coal plants in India, 89 in Japan- and 90% of new coal power capacity added. This means climate change issues remain no matter what the US does. By using natural gas fired electricity the US gets transition time for the shift to renewables and can attack the cost of living, export to the EU.  ...

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The WSJ's Iliff and Luhnow's interview with Emilio Lozoya, CEO of Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). Lozoya says about the new oil law that allows foreign companies to compete with Pemex, as something that should have happened decades ago. President Calderon of the PAN party pushed hard for this, but failed to get the support of the PRI during his term in office 2006-2012. It made sense for Mexico because President Cardozo (1997-2002) of Brazil already set a successful example by doing this for Brazil's state oil company, Petrobras. The main point is that competition is good for Pemex, and good for Mexico and Mexicans, and Lozoya emphasizes this. Under the law Pemex can keep oil fields it already has and have the first pick in future fields. Pemex is expected to partner in oil field exploration in deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico where it needs the technologies of foreign oil companies. Under the new rules Pemex will have 2 years in which to make the transition to a well managed business enterprise. A new tax code works to increase nonoil tax revenues, so that Mexico does not depend on Pemex profits for one third of its budget. It also gives Pemex autonomy and control over its budget, and lowers its tax burden to international levels. This frees up badly needed resources for investment opportunties to increase Mexico's growth rate. Lozoya says the investment budget could be increased from $25 billion to about $30-$35 billion as a result. He gives a list of badly needed projects not taken up by Pemex for lack of funds- developing natural gas from Mexico's large reserves where Mexico imports its natural gas from Texas increasing the cost of manufacturing, building pipelines where Mexico transports fuel by truck which is 15 times more costly, making its own fertilizer and petrochemicals instead of importing it in a country where 60% of farmland is not fertilized. There is so much to be done that Lozoya realizes his main challenge will be execution. Enormous responsibility rests on Lozoya's shoulders to get the execution right. Pemex has 160,000 employees and crude oil sales of $130 billion in 2012. He has a Masters degree in economic development from Harvard and managed investment funds in New York before this position. Cardozo also picked an investment banking professional for the job of recharting the course of Petrobras and attracting foreign investment....

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Exxon is looking for a big oil dealer in the shale patch in the US. It is considering the acquisition of shale company Pioneer Natural Resources with a market cap of $49 billion. Exxon wants to make use of its windfall profits of the last year to good use. An acquisition of Dallas based Pioneer would give Exxon a dominant position in the West Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico. Exxon made windfall profits of $56 billion in 2022 after the jump in oil prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Based in Irving, Texas, it is heavily invested in fossil fuel assets and its thinking is that fossil fuels are here for a long time as it has not made a significant shift to renewable energy. During the cutoff of Russian oil supplies Europe has depended on LNG supplies from the US and Qatar, and on Norway for increased oil and gas supplies. President Biden included drilling concessions in some of the legislation passed in Congress and Conoco plans to drill in Alaska. The transitional period has gained support in places like the US and Norway following the need to support the European Union and Germany in the crisis. This gives oil companies some time to sort out their future plans for renewable investments. ...

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The rapidly changing situation in energy is shown by the $15 billion German government rescue of Uniper, which contains the legacy fossil fuel assets of Germany's E.ON electricity maker. The war in Ukraine has made energy security a priority, leaving fossil fuel assets at risk of getting stranded. This is what happened at Uniper as Germany moves quickly to develop renewable sources to replace Russian fossil fuels. Clean energy investment is increasing rapidly as many green energy options are cost effective. Two thirds of electricity is generated in countries where it is cheaper to build new solar or onshore wind facilities than to run existing gas or coal powered facilities. Offshore wind with newer technologies will soon be cheaper also. Higher fuel and emissions prices, the cost of running older facilities in extreme weather, also increase risk of stranded assets.   To understand how quickly the situation is changing and can lead to stranded assets - solar energy is now half the cost of energy from coal or natural gas at today's prices as shown in the graphs in this WSJ article. Large investment in research and new technology will only decrease the cost of solar and wind energy to 2025 and 2030, increasing the investments in renewable energy and speeding up the curve for transition to renewable sources, with the added impetus of government support to achieve COP26 targets. ...

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Xi Jinping in his New Year speech showed an awareness of the vast changes taking place and the need for humility, listening to different viewpoints during the pandemic. It reflects the new tone after the zero covid policies were abruptly put aside. "Ours is a big country. It is only natural for different people to have different concerns or hold different views on the same issue." Xi urged consensus through communication and consultation. He has told visiting European officials that the frustration with covid policies had caused prtoests mostly by students. Today sick workers are bringing factories to a halt, service sector activity is slowing down. Hospitals are swamped with sick patients. Xi says the policy shift is a way to adapt to the evolving virus with higher transmissibility and lower fatality rate for Omicron coronavirus. He describes China's economy as basically sound and reaching 4% growth in 2022 and GDP at about $17.4 trillion not adjusted for inflation. ...

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After hurricane Helene only about 10% of FEMA workers are available for Hurricane Milton headed towards the Tampa Bay Area at 175 miles per hour.

Christopher Flavelle of NYT  points out FEMA desperately needs more funding and staff as it is responding simultaneously to many disasters. The full effects of climate change in more and more natural disasters all across the US have not been taken into account for the added funding and staffing needed. In this situation FEMA is spread thin causing other problems such as attrition and burnout and unfilled positions.

The Government Accountability Office report found in 2023 that 35% of FEMA's positions were unfilled, because of “rising disaster activity during the year, which increased burnout and employee attrition.”

There are also lot of people who are out of work in disaster areas who can be pulled in for disaster work.  

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Cities including London, New York, Paris, Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Melbourne, Milan, Caracas, Cape Town, Copenhagen, Vancouver, have pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050.

Reducing transport emissions is a big challenge. London has Ultra low Emission Zone which encourages people to switch to low emission vehicles.  Paris is creating 650 kilometres of cycling paths and plans to open up the whole city to bicycles by 2026. Buildings have a large carbon footprint - producing 38% of global carbon emissions. Of this 11% are in the construction materials of steel and concrete, Wood is an alternative material that is being tried in buildings. Passive heating is a way to heat or cool buildings by building underground canals around a building and using the natural temperatures of the earth to cool or heat the air above. This is seen in the Energon building in Ulm, Germany.

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BP took a writedown of $5 billion for the second quarter of 2012, for some U.S. refineries, a suspended Alaska oil project and shale gas resources. Of this $2.68 billion was for the U.S. refining business. And $1.50 billion was for the suspension of the Liberty oil project in Alaska because of higher costs. BP's clean replacement cost profit was $3.69 billion, a decline of 35% from the $5.71 billion the prior year. BP's writedown of shale gas assets was because of very low natural gas prices, a situation faced also by Shell and Exxon. Total oil and gas production declined by 7.4% to 2.275 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. The extended maintenance program and major repair and improvement work after the 2011 oil spill led to increased costs and lower production in the North Sea, Angola, and the Gulf of Mexico.

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These are key provisions in the biggest climate change bill in history- Tax credits that last for over a decade for zero carbon plants- these tax credits go to companies that build new sources of emissions free electricity, for wind turbines, solar panels, battery storage, geo thermal plants. Tax credits also for new technologies that capture and bury carbon dioxide from natural gas plants and industrial facilities before it escapes into the atmosphere and heats the planet. This technology is rarely used because of high costs. Incentives for electric vehicles- It extends a tax credit of $7500 for new electric vehicles. It adds a $4000 tax credit for used electric vehicles. Tax credit goes only to people earning $150,000 a year (300,000 for joint filers) for new EV's and $75,000 (150,000 for joint filers) for used EV's. Help for people to lower energy costs - $9 billion in rebates for Americans installing energy efficient electrical appliances. And a decade of tax credits for Americans installing rooftop solar, heat pumps, water heaters and electric HVAC, or electric heating, air conditioning and ventilation technologies. Investments in Domestic Manufacturing- $60 billion for investments in clean energy manufacturing in the US. This includes $30 billion for production tax credits for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and critical minerals processing. $10 billion in investment tax credits to build manufacturing facilities for electric cars and renewable energy technologies. This action is to halt the shifting of clean energy manufacturing overseas to China. $27 billion towards a green bank that would finance clean energy projects in disadvantaged communities. Cracking down on Methane- the bill places a fine on methane gas emissions from oil and gas wells and pipelines and other infrastructure. Fees of $900 per metric ton in 2024 and $1500 a metric ton in 2026 when it exceeds federally set limits.    ...

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Higher prices of gasoline in the first quarter of average $3.92 in April 2012, are offset by higher fuel economy of cars at about 24.1 mpg compared to 20.8 in 2008. Natural gas prices have fallen and this reduces household utility bills, acting as another offset. The U.S. consumer held up in the 1st quarter of 2012, with real spending up by 2.3%, according to Macroeconomc Advisors.

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Even though ambitious targets are being set by the government raising from 50 million to 80 million in 3 years the target for new LPG connections to shift rural households from firewood to natural gas use, more needs to be done. The head of the Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister Modi of India. Bibek Debroy, asks questions about the Ujjwalla program in India to shift rural homes from firewood to gas use. Is the fixed subsidy of Rs 1600 enough? Is a 5kg cylinder what the market wants instead of the 14.2 kg cylinder? Are there externalities that favor use of firewood? Will rural households replace the cylinders at this subsidy level because the costs are still high?  The PMUY, or Pradhan Mantri Ujjwalla Yojana was launched in India in 2016 in Ballia, Uttar Pradesh under the Modi administration. The target for LPG gas use for firewood using households was 15 million in the first year and 50 million for the next 3 years. The government pays Rs. 1600 subsidy for a new connection reimbursing the oil company making the connection. The refill and cost of stove, is the rural household's responsibility. Separate guidelines were made for urban households. The government website mygov.in shows 41 million households have used Ujjwalla to get LPG and stop firewood use. The new target of 80 million means the goal post is moving higher. The 2011 Census is cited showing the rural household use moved up from 6% to 12% by 2011. For All India it was from 17% to 29%. About 100 million rural households use firewood, 62.5% of all rural households in 2011. A big issue is how this affects the health of women using firewood for cooking, and who collects this firewood. Firewood is still cheaper says Debroy, and there are negative externalities associated with firewood not understood enough. Changing the face of rural India is a project in motion, with new issues to tackle, new hurdles to overcome, every bit of progress showing how much more needs to be done. ...

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Natural gas prices have declined to $3.34 per million BTU's in Jan 2013. This is about a fourth of the prices in 2006 and 2008, when prices were above $12 per millon BTU's. The result is a rebirth of industry in the midwest and other regions in the U.S. Here the WSJ's John Miller covers a Nucor $750 million investment in Louisiana for a new steel plant. Oddly Nucor did just the opposite in 2004, taking apart a steel plant and shipping it on ocean barges to Trinidad, where natural gas is abundant.

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The new plan of the Obama administration in August 2016 to tackle climate change is to cut power plant emissions of carbon dioxide by 32% by 2030 from 2005 levels. This will increase the energy from renewables to 28% of the total by 2030 from about 13% in 2014. The power industry was given more time to comply by shifting the first year to begin complying to 2022 from 2020. The final rule will also provide for generating more energy from nuclear power which provides 20% of the electricity, and which will help reach the 32% target for cutting emissions by 2030. It will also give more flexibility for the shift to natural gas from coal by giving credits towards compliance for projects starting early, rather than mandating a large shift early.

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See these pictures of the Yangtze River and the Poyang Lake in BBC to understand how the decades of hyper growth in China with use of coal and fossil fuels unprecedented in history were not good for China and the world. The Yangtze river has never recorded less rainfall than this year since records began in 1961. That hyper growth is being followed by slight or flat growth both situations China and the world could have avoided if a steady growth pattern was put in its place. Common sense and wisdom would have done better than economists and business  in the US and local governments in China that dictated a self-interested pattern of hyper growth that led to ravaging communities in the US and the EU by shipping all manufacturing to China, then starting to reverse this process as the same ravaged communities in the US and EU responded in elections in the US and EU. None of the participants in this now take responsibility for their role in the changing climate and natural disasters one sees in 2022. China now faces the task of rebuilding its entire fossil fuel driven industry along renewable energy lines, when it is at the end of a property driven, land sale driven boom, with local governments finances precarious.   ...