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The basic architecture to support the euro currency is being proposed in a seven page report prepared by presidents of the EU Council, the ECB, the EC and the Eurogroup. This includes deposit insurance to protect against a run on banks, a European bank supervisor with possibly the ECB in that role, and the European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone rescue fund, acting as a backup if deposit and resolution funds need support. Currently the European Banking Authority setup after the 2008 crisis works with central banks of the individual countries to regulate the banks. In contrast to sanctions imposed for overspending under prior EU agreements the report says new powers would be transferred to a European Authority on the fiscal side so that overspending can be controlled at the European level and budget deficits are set at the European level.

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Efforts being made to convince the Spanish government of Mariano Rajoy to accept IMF aid to recapitalize its banks. The IMF released information showing Spanish banks would need to raise at least 37 billion euros or $46 billion to prevent a worsening of the banking crisis. The report was released before the meeting of EU finance ministers on June 9-10 to persuade the Spanish government to accept IMF aid. The eurozone bailout fund was given powers in 2011 to make loans to governments for the purpose of recapitalizing banks, with conditions and terms set for the financial sector not for the government's spending plans. According to people aware of the discussions taking place in the European Commission and the IMF, one option is to have the European Banking Authority and not the IMF oversee the program. This avoids the usual stigma of accepting aid coming from the IMF with strict conditions attached including restrictions on the government's fiscal plans.

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The problems in Chase bank's Investment Office unit were first reported in the WSJ April 5, 2012. Large positions were taken by Mr Michael Iksil, a trader in the London office that ruffled credit markets. Iksil reports to Achilles Macris, head of the European operations of the Investment Office unit, and Macris reports to Ms. Drew. At the time CEO Dimon and other executives reviewed trading positions and made no changes in strategies. After April 13 earnings call losses increased to $200 million a day, and review teams assigned to look into this found errors in the way the hedges were conducted. In early May Chief Risk Officer John Hogan and Europe head Daniel Pinto monitored the situation. The hedges were designed to reduce risk in the eurozone financial crisis, but the complex transactions based on relationships between a number of derivative indexes for investment grade and junk grade corporate bonds in U.S. and Europe worked in ways that led to large losses, and were so complicated that they were poorly understood....

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The Economist warns in this editorial and cover issue that if Germany and the European Union do not act fast the Greek crisis could have a Lehmann like effect on Europe's banking systems, with a sovereign default. This would threaten the weaker economies of Portugal, Spain and Italy. As Simon Johnson has done on the pages of the New York Times, the Economist calls the German government and Chancellor Angela Merkel's handling of this crisis filled with ineptitude. Instead of leading the German people and giving a true account of things she followed public opinion- to see that Greece was punished for its mistakes and to provide a lukewarm show of support. A true account would have shown how Germay has gained from the euro, the huge portion of Greek debt that German banks hold, and the losses that the government would have to step in and avert in its banking system if Greece defaulted. Waiting till after a big regional election in Germany on May 9, was to show a lack of grasp of how such a crisis could explode if Greece in the meantime was shut out of capital markets (yield on Greek bonds shot up to 20%). Helping Greece was more in Germany's interest than an act of charity that public opinion in Germany seems to think it is. Other mistakes the Economist cites are- the idea that going to the IMF would be humiliating thus not bringing in the IMF actively much earlier. In the view of these experts it is the ineptitude that led to the loss of confidence in financial markets that now necessitates a much larger aid package for Greece, from $60 billon to $150 billion. The other is to have a slow decision making machinery in the Eurozone and knowing this not to have taken more aggressive action. Suggestions from the Economist as an adhoc measure- set up a single crisis management committee to make quick decisions. Set up a firewall between Greece and the other states like Spain and Italy so that contagion does not spread, with these countries also being shut out of financial markets at some future date if the situation deteriorates. The other is that the European governments should setup inter-governmental liquidity lines, and the European Central Bank act using the new arrangements....

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A lucid account of the reason why Germany, Netherlands, IMF, and the ECB, took a firm stand not to allow Cyprus to continue in the EU with a banking system many times the size of its economy. The role of a casino economy, an off shore tax haven, was anathema to these leaders, and German leaders in particular in an election year. The Estonia president, Mr Ilves, makes clear his disgust with the Cypriot model when he says its too much to ask for solidarity with thugs and money launderers. It became clear to some EU leaders that the effort to protect depositors with larger accounts of over 100,000 euros from a larger contribution was an effort to protect Russians, and Russian oligarchs who were using Cyprus to launder money. The lack of the same support from the EU bureaucracy may be because of the implications elsewhere in the eurozone, such as in Spain, where about 700,000 depositors were offered assurances that they would not have to bear losses if they were misled into taking equity in the banks. The finance minister of the Netherlands, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, followed Jean-Claude Juncker as Eurogroup president in Jan. 2013. He was on the job for only 5 months as finance minister and lacked experience, the Cypriot president in his position for one month, leading to a lack of communication and absence of coordination in this crisis. Experts say the crisis should have been managed better without denting confidence in financial markets....

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A Flash Eurobarometer poll before French elections in 2017 show 56% of Europeans in the EU saying the euro is a good thing, only 36% saying its not, those saying its good at 64% in Germany, and being 57% in Spain, and 53% in France. Walker of the WSJ says the euro has survived the crises of the last few years, with some but not all the steps taken to avoid a repeat of the problems, and public opinion still favoring the eurozone as it looks forward to economic growth in coming years. The middle class is not attracted to risking its savings in euro denominated assets, costs of the turmoil that might be caused by leaving the euro act as a signal for caution, and in Southern Europe countries remember the days before the euro with devaluations and high inflation. With gradual economic recovery it appears that the euro is still the best option there is. Surveys show three fourths of the French oppose leaving the euro, and experts say the euro is not to blame for France's slow economic recovery- more confidence and political stability with economic renewal are seen as the ways to get France going again. This may be why the national elections in France will likely bring a president who is pro-EU. ...

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Rapidly decling support for Mr Westerwelle and the Free Democratic party he leads in Germany. In the September 2009 elections the FDP won 14.6% of the vote. A Dec 27-30 Stern opinion poll shows only 4% support the FDP. This threatens the Christian Democrats-FDP coalition led by Chancellor Angela Merkel in the coming regional elections. Merkel and the CDP have held onto their support, with 34% saying they support the Christian Democrats, compared to the 33.8% of the vote the CDP won in the Sept 2009 national elections in Germany. Some of the problem lies with Westerwelle who is seen as arrogant and out of touch.The major reason is that in the Merkel coalition the FDP could not implement the tax cuts and other pro-business promises it had made earlier as an opposition party. Merkel is reluctant to move on tax cuts because German help may be needed in the eurozone financial crisis. The 4% showing in the poll puts the FDP below the 5% threshold required to hold seats in Parliament. Losses in regional elections for the Merkel coalition would give the opposition parties and the Social Democrats a bigger majority in the upper house, which would further weaken Merkel's legislative agenda and the credibility of the coalition....

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The Journal profiles the small company of Dell'Orco & Villani in Prato, in the Tuscany region of Italy, in the context of the eurozone financial crisis in Greece, Italy and Spain. The Italian economy is dominated by such companies that have remained small and decided not to grow because of the difficulties facing them in the form of red tape, the slowness of courts in enforcing contracts, and labor laws that make it harder to hire employees and retrench in a recession. Today Italy's economy is only 3% larger than 10 years ago. Companies with less than 20 workers dominate the economies of southern European countries, employing 60% of the workforce in Italy and Greece, and half the workforce in Spain and Portugal. This compares with 30% in Germany and 20% in the U.S., according to the O.E.C.D. Businesses face an average of 258 days to get permits to open a new warehouse in Italy, compared to 26 in the U.S., according to the World Bank. Enforcing a contract in court could take as long as 1210 days in Italy compared to 300 days in France and the U.S. Italy's postwar economic recovery was based on these small firms around cities like Turin, or textile locations such as Prato. But building economies of scale has eluded these firms, and businessman from that period such as the elder Dell'Orco are content with remaining small. The Dell'Orco family firm makes machines that recycle plastics, rubber and other junk into fibers that can be used for carpets or clothing. The firm has trouble making a decision to hire a new younger worker to do work after four older workers retired. The company makes the machine that only does the first stage of the processing, referring customers to another firm in Prato for the second machine. Most decisions including a tiny showroom are made in excruciatingly slow fashion because they go through the family patriarch, the 91 year old founder. The son and granddaughter defer to him in all decisions. An unsold machine costing 400,000 euros sits in the factory after one buyer decided to delay the purchase, making it risky to grow. During the pre-euro period of the last two decades Italian businesses could take advantage of the regular devaluations of the lira to price below their competitors in Germany and other countries. During the last two decades competition from emerging market economies S.Korea, China and India have added to problems competing in global markets, without the advantages of scale. The inability to hire younger workers hurts unemployment for the young- youth unemployment in Italy is 29% in 2011....

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Annalena Baerbock is leading the Greens Party in Germany to a new poll high. Almost all parties lost points in the poll for Bild Am Sonntag and the Greeens gained. Coming at a time when the German public is weary after the eurozone financial crisis, the migrant crisis and now the coronavirus pandemic Annalena Baerbock brings a fresh approach to issues in Germany. Her call for a broad tent and the solidarity in the party with co-leader Robert Habeck are getting a good response from the German people.  Greens are ahead by 2 percentage points to 28%, CDU/CSU down by 2 points to 27%, SDU down by 2 points to 13%, AfD and Left Party both down by 1 point, AfD at 10% and Left Party at 7%. Greens present the idea of a new departure for Germany to protect the climate, reduce inequality and start a new Europe. Annalena Baerbock talks about this in her campaign as chancellor candidate for the September 2021 German elections- "we must make changes to create a fair country." The German people are listening after years of disappointment with the SPD under Schroeder, the Merkel years when Germany tackled crises of eurozone and migrants with no new direction for a brighter future,  the AfD creating new divisions and waning in approval, the lockdowns leading to social divisions, rising inequality.  ...

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Signs that the consumer credit boom in Turkey is reaching alarming proportions are evident from the surge in credit card use. Credit card debt has increased by 20% in 2011, after an increase of 23% in 2010. There are an estimated 3.7 million delinquent cardholders and 2.5 million cardholders who only make the monthly payments. The Turkish regulators are now requiring cardholders to payoff at least half of the balances before they can use ATM's for cash. Banks charge interest rates of about 29% and cardholders who are using credit cards for the first time -as more of the Turkish people are joining the middle class during the country's decade of high growth- do not understand the risks. Turkish banks, Garanti, Yapi Kredi, and Isbank, are in the list of top ten card issuers in Europe, according to Nilson Report. Card purchases average $3,500 per year, in a country with per capita income of $12,300. Turkish banks have pushed card use, with Garanti Bank's website giving users cash for frequent use of cards, and asking users to show the card even if they are buying an apple at the grocery store. The volume of personal consumer loans has doubled since 2009, because Turks use the consumer loans to pay off the high interest rate balances on credit card debt. Analysts at ING Group in London who follow Turkish banks say the delinquency rates will be above 9% in 2012. The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report of Sept. 2011 has identified the credit growth to GDP ratio as one of the key factors leading to an economic crisis. This was true for the U.S. before 2008, for Portugal and Ireland before the eurozone crisis. China's credit growth was up 29% in 2009 and Hong Kong's up 30% according to the IMF Report. Turkey and Vietnam also have high credit growth to GDP ratios according to the IMF. Turkey's high capital inflows can quickly reverse in a crisis increasing the risks facing the country....

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So far the Italian government has already recovered $15 billion for 2011 in its fight against tax evasion. The fight includes an advertising campaign depicting tax evasion as anti-social activity and vigorous enforcement by tax officials and the financial police. Italy has already banned cash transactions to reduce possibilities for evading taxes. This problem is severe in Italy because the underground economy is about 17.5% of GDP. An estimated $150 billion is lost to the Italian treasury from tax evasion. As a result Italy has a chronic budget deficit problem and is not able to make necessary investments in improving competitiveness to keep up with other countries. This may be one of the lasting achievements of the new administration of Mario Monti, along with its efforts to change the way the public thinks about other issues including labor laws that place large burdens on small companies in hiring practices. Italians sense the need to change the way they think about taxes because this is one way to reduce the burden of austerity measures- higher tax revenues could enable lowering taxes. It would also enable investing in improving competitiveness that would the economy grow and provide the jobs to reduce the high unemployment rate among young workers. One of the lasting positive aspects of the eurozone crisis is the change in the way the people and society think about many issues....

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Malaysia's debt to GDP ratio increased to 242% in mid-2012 from 192% in 2008 according to McKinsey. As export growth has slowed the Malaysian government is relying on credit expansion to consumers and large capital projects such as the planned subway project in Kuala Lumpur to sustain growth. Similiar credit expansion is seen in other Asian countries- Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong. The period 2008 to 2013 has seen a rapid acceleration in credit expansion in these countries and especially in China. China's debt to GDP ratio increased to 183% in mid 2012 from 153% in 2008, according to McKinsey. Nomura Holding's economist Zhiwei Zhang, and other economists say it is above 200% when government data on "shadow banking" lending institutions such as trust companies is included. IMF economist Giovanni Dell'Ariccia has studied of debt expansion and credit booms since the 1970's. He and other economists at the IMF have found that credit booms- the rapid increase in credit to GDP ratios- end up in crises one third of the time, result in below par growth in another third of the time, and only in one third of the time does growth continue at the high pace. Alex Frangos talks to government officials in Kuala Lumpur who do not take seriously the high vacancy rate for office buildings in the capital of about 20% even as new office towers are being built. Bob Davis gives the example of government owned Hunan Expressway company in China which has a huge road building program and doubled its 2009 debt levels. Another state owned company in shipping China Cosco Holdings increased total debt from 85 billion yuan in 2009 to 123 billion yuan in 2012. As export growth slowed in China in 2009 credit expansion is driving growth. The normal restraints of the market are absent in China's state owned companies. Charlene Chu, senior director of Fitch Ratings Inc in Beijing, says 2012 demonstrated that the Chinese government cannot slow credit growth without risking a decline in growth. China's GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2013 slowed to 7.7% from 7.9% in the 4th quarter of 2012. This poses a serious problem for China. China has never experienced the kinds of problems seen in Asia after the 1997 banking crisis, in the eurozone today, and in the U.S. following the financial crisis of 2008, making government officials prone to complacency about the risks....

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Prof. Jeffrey Wasserstrom of UC Irvine reviews Henry Paulson's "Dealing With China." Paulson was head of Goldman Sachs investment bank and Secretary of the Treasury 2006-2009, the period of the global financial crisis. He made 70 visits to China since his days at Goldman Sachs and calls Chinese leaders Jiang Zemin and Jinping "old friends." He established the Strategic Economic Dialogue in the Bush administration for dialogue on economic issues with China, and setup the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago to focus on China-U.S. relations. One of Paulson's points is that China's financial system faces a day of reckoning, with large losses and many restructurings. Wasserstrom's review looks at Paulson's view of dealing with China and points to a sense that it needs updating because by the time the book is published a lot has changed with the new Jinping administration. The new administration in China is more assertive in foreign affairs, and less tolerant of both the corruption that became part of the Chinese capitalist development inside a state run one party system, and of the voices for more openness. It also has placed tight controls on the Internet. Jinping sees a constructive role for the Communist party in the future as China makes economic reforms away from state run enterprises, and is working to strengthen the party through discipline and anti-corruption initiative. The reckoning Paulson mentions, Krugman and other experts have described in other language- not as a reckoning but that China was no exception and would face the same problems that the U.S. and the eurozone faced since 2008 from financial excesses. In this sense Paulson's views and interactions with the Chinese leadership may represent another era, a period of exuberance when some of these financial excesses were being built up. Today's economic team of Jinping and Li Keqiang is more focussed on making sure the transition through a economic crisis is managed carefully, keeping in mind the risks for China considering its history, and the situation where China is still a "middle income country" with aspirations for further development to improve incomes and living standards. Their view is that tight control is needed as China makes this transition to a less state enterprise dependent, and more consumer economy, so that there is no loss of the gains made so far. A different set of skills and deft management of the economy is needed, making Paulson's views from another era less relevant. External influences such as managing the complex China-Japan relationship as both countries become more assertive are creating another dynamic in Asia, which Chinese leaders may see as requiring careful management, making Paulson's experience less relevant for a new period with new challenges. For the U.S. the economic cooperation with China now occurs with an added political dimension. Of concern for the tight control, seen as not forward looking and not bringing more constructive voices into the system, and the new complexities of carefully managing the changing U.S.-China-Japan relationship in Asia. ...

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Sheila Bair, former head of the U.S. FDIC, points out flaws in the rules for capital adequacy ratios and risk weighted assets which allow banks to increase their capital adequacy ratios. The ratios show the financial strength of the banks and their ability to absorb losses, which makes their accurate calculation very important for the safety of the U.S. banking system, especially with large "too big to fail" banks. Bair says the 2013 U.S. Fed stress tests showed Bank of America as having a capital adequacy ratio of 11.4%, when it should actually be 7.8% without the risk weighted adjustment. The mortgage banking crisis showed how the risk wieighting can be flawed and give a distorted representation of the acutal risks facing the banks in its assets. For Morgan Stanley the 2013 stress tess by the U.S. Fed showed the capital adequacy ratio at 14%, taking out the risk weighting adjustment this drops to 7%. Bair says its not the idea of risk weighting that is the problem, but the way it is applied- for example considering sovereign government bonds in the eurozone as zero risk, or that only 20% of the accounting value of debt one banks buys from another bank is to be taken into account in setting the ratio. Go back to the drawing board she says, it makes no sense that Citibank debt be shown as having one fifth risk of IBM's. ...

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Europe's 750 billon euros plan to defend the euro currency, including 60 billion of EU backed bonds, a $440 billion euro fund guaranteed by euro-zone countries, and upto 250 billion euros of IMF money. The plan buys time for the troubled economies of Portugal, Spain and other EU countries, but does not address the fiscal and structural flaws that are endangering the European single currency experiment. The "no bail-out" clause and the stability and growth pact proved worthless in implementation. Sanctions for a country with growing problem of deficits did not work and had soon lost credibility, with the financial markets themselves recognizing the serious problems of some deficit countries only when things had spun out of control. Some other forms of sanctions will have to be figured out and mechanisms of dealing with financial panic such as sovereign debt restructuring need to be put in place. The German emphasis on too sharp budget cuts may have the danger of pushing deficit countries into deflation as well as creating strong popular unrest. ...

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The Finance Ministers of Germany and France, Wolgang Schauble and Christine Lagarde, support a reprofiling of Greece's debt. This is a form of restructuring of Greek debt under which Greece's private creditors would be expected to take repayment over a longer period. This would help Greece cover its fiscal gaps in 2012 and 2013. Luxembourg premier Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the group of 17 finance ministers of the EU also supports this move. This is opposed by the ECB Executive Board member Jurgen Stark of Germany, Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank President, and Christine Noyer, head of the French central bank. The ECB's view is that there would be contagion effects from a restructuring which would affect Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Creditors such as Societe General bank support this view. The finance ministers have a political constituency and recent elections in Finland and Germany show lack of public support for additional financial support to Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The ECB is pushing for Greece to exhaust all options include privatization and further spending cuts, and for European governments to come up with the money. The ECB position including a threat by ECB officials to stop accepting Greek bonds as collateral for loans is coming under criticism. Sony Kapoor of Brussels think tank Re-Define, says the ECB is following anarrow interest and considering the political opposition has an untenable position- forcing Greeks and the people of the eurozone countries to bear the entire burden of the crisis with no contribution whatsoever from the banks that made the decisions to make these loans. Not even to the point of a milder form of restructuring that reprofiling would accomplish, that extends debt repayments to creditors over a longer period. Krugman and and an editorial this week in the Wall Street Journal also take this view....

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Finally after prolonged dithering Angela Merkel had her cabinet approve 22.4 billion euros of loans to Greece over 3 years, with parliamentary approval the next step. And the ECB followed this with its announcement that it would accept Greek debt as collateral regardless of downgrades. This follows the approval of a $110 billion rescue plan for Greece from the IMF and other European nations announced over the weekend. That ECB decision comes in the wake of Standard and Poors decision to downgrade Greek debt to junk status.

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The IMF currently has $202 billion in basic resources and an additonal $41 billion it can tap in international financial crises, for a total $243 billion, according to IMF documents. Under a G-20 initiative a new lending pool will replace the $41 billion and add about $250 billion of new money. This money will be needed to address the new committments required in the current euro-zone crisis. Seven Europen countries are expected to ratify the lending program with parliamentary approval so that it can be put into place in 2011- Austria, Belgium, Italy, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Norway and Sweden. This will bring the IMF's lending capacity to over $450 billion. The US has approved the increase and is committing about $106 billion, larger than its 17% ownership stake in the IMF.