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Navdeep Puri, India's former ambassador to Egypt, discusses the importance of India's relationship with the United Arab Emirates and particularly its relationship with the leaders of Abu Dhabi. Indian prime minister Modi has visited UAE 3 times and has built a close relationship with Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ). Interviews with MBZ in the NYT and indepth articles show that MBZ is a different leader in this part of the Arab world who has inbuilt in his nature both old Arab values and tradition that he respects with the modern world that he saw in Britain, and is simply striking out for a different path that sees modernity in the British way as a way forward for the entire region. MBZ is also seen as a mentor for Mohamad bin Salman of the Saudi country. MBS is also striking out  for a different path for the region. Saudis are financing development agenda for Egypt by helping rescue the Egyptian economy with investment and assistance at a critical time of the pandemic. This also extends to aid and assistance to Turkey. For MBZ and MBS the British approach to modernity and the American approach to modernity, with science, technology and both respecting and modernizing traditional ways, offer a way forward for the entire Gulf region. When these countries look around them they see India as also striking out in the same or similar direction. Both Arab and Indian traditions are being seen in a respectful way, without ever losing sight of the development goals and fully accepting the modernity that Britain has brought not just to Asia but long before that to Europe and the US. This may be the true foundation of the new relationship of the Gulf region with India - seeking a common path to modernity and development for all the people of their countries after the failures of the last 75 years. ...

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Turkey's trade deficit increased to $10.2 billion in June 2011, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. This is almost twice the trade deficit only one year ago in June 2010 when it was $5.7 billon. Imports went up 42%, and exports showed annual increase of 19%. Warnings of a "hard landing" were made by Standard & Poor's. Turkey's economy is on a unsustainable path with the economy growing 11% in the first quarter. The IMF forecast is for the economy to grow at 4.6% in 2011, compared to 8.9% in 2010, which suggests a sharp slowing down of growth for the remainder of the year. Concern is also rising because Turkey has fallen behind in competitiveness. The manufacturing sector depends on large inputs of imported raw materials and semifinished products. A breakdown of the trade figures show 71% of the $10.2 billon deficit was from intermediary goods including raw materials, and 28% from capital and consumption goods. Efforts to reduce the current account deficit were expected by analysts after the recent presidential elections, but this has not happened. It appears that the Turkish government is taking a wait and see attitude for possible sluggish growth worldwide and not taking actions of its own that are necessary....

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Prospects for the global economy in 2016- debt to GDP ratios high in Turkey, Brazil and China lead to problems and slowing growth. India an exception in emerging markets with growth rate above 7%, benefitting from increasing foreign investment and halving of oil prices. U.S. recovers slowly, and the eurozone emerges from the debt crisis with need for further quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Russia recovers gradually after a steep devaluation of the ruble. Ironically just when a slow recovery is taking place in 2015-2016, the private sector governance improvements, and serious tackling of debt problems, lead one to conclude that prospects for the long term are better today than in 2005 when the optimism was not well grounded because of weak governance and debt buildup.

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Venezuela faces an uncertain future after U.S. efforts to support Mr. Guaido and call for new free and fair elections have failed. With help from Russia the Venezuelan economy is showing signs of recovery from the steep decline and high inflation in 2019. Oil production is expected to reach 1 million barrels a day in 2020 after falling to 650,000- 700,000 barrels a day in 2019. Russia's oil company Rosneft provides critical help for Venezuelan oil sales and maintenance in oil fields.  National Security Adviser John Bolton is faulted for his advice to president Trump on Venezuela, that merely voicing support for 36 year old Guaido, would lead to regime change without action from the U.S. With the recovery in Venezuela with help from Russia and Cuba, Mr. Guaido's popularity has dropped by 20 points to 38%, according to a Venezuelan pollster Datanalisis. Most Cubans and Venezuelans in the U.S. are in Florida where there is support for new elections, and Mr. Trump continues to support Mr. Guaido. The lack of support for change from other countries including Europe, India, Turkey, and Mexico have led to a stalled situation in Venezuela. There is concern for the steep inflation, the migration of about 4.5 million Venezuelans, the shortages of critical supplies as a result of the economic collapse in 2019. The situation is stabilizing for the government yet the future of Venezuela with U.S. sanctions and weak economy leaves Venezuela in a precarious situation. Venezuela continues to be an example of how well meaning changes for social justice can lead to political changes that bring about economic collapse. This happens  when business and the economy flounder under mismanagement and corruption under crony socialism, a variant of crony capitalism. The old capitalist class and the privileged families who ran the country under its old two party system are gone. Replaced with a new class. The trying out of untested economic ideas in the quest for social balance leads to economic mismanagement, loss of critical human resources which leave the country, and a higher degree of poverty with shortages than before.  Today in Latin America Brazil shows how allowing generous pension benefits at the expense of basic needs and public services in the budget can hurt the economy. Argentina's overborrowing once again shows how this leads to IMF loans and harsh economic austerity. Chile shows how not financing pensions and public services can lead to collapse of public confidence and riots. Venezuela shows how the quest for social justice and reducing privilege can itself get flawed, leading to mass migration of as many as 4.5 million citizens. This happens under models that vary from free enterprise models to socialist or nationalist models showing that models can be less relevant than good sense and good management. In the beginning and for some time each of these models worked well, commodity price supported booms concealed real problems. Avoiding extremes, prudent spending, good investment and hard work, investment in education and infrastructure, building consensus, and good management, is critical for the future to avoid the bad outcomes facing much of Latin America. A lesson also for Asian and African countries that basic virtue is more important than socialism or free enterprise or nationalism when it comes to development.   ...

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Corio NV, a Dutch shopping centres company, has invested 600 million euros in Turkey after entering that market in 2005, with a strategy of introducing modern shopping centres to Turkish consumers. It has concentrated on secondary locations outside of Ankara and Istanbul, and encountered different cultural pattern of consumers there; with Turkish women in these cities not doing much driving, and mostly male shoppers. And women in these secondary cities do not buy the same forward fashion as women in Istanbul or Ankara. The Turkish real estate market and the economy is also relatively weak, and Corio is expected to take a loss of 15% on its investments since 2005, according to analysts. This also shows how markets in the bigger cities in emerging markets do not reflect life in the secondary cities. And competition is already intense in the bigger cities. Corio had to provide transportation to help women get to the malls.

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Turkey's constitutional amendment to centralize powers in the office of the president was approved by 51.2% of voters with 48.8% voters saying "no." About 85% of 55 million eligible voters voted in the election. It was seen as not offering a level playing field for opposition parties to organize and have freedom of assembly, after action taken by the president against the media and opposition following the coup attempt in 2016. The opposition Republican Party says about 2.5 million votes may have been compromised. Also showing the wide split in the country between urban and rural, a majority of voters from the largest cities of Istanbul and Ankara voted against expanding the president's powers. The constitutional amendment now becomes effective in Nov. 2019 after new elections. Turkey's electoral boards are adminstered by judges, yet the integrity of the system of justice has suffered from the dismissal of about one third of all judges since July 2016.

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Scott Shane of the NYT provides this exceptional account of how the ideology of Wahhabism on which the Saudi monarchy is based has influenced the evolution of Islam, but not in the way other religions have evolved into more moderate and open religions. Christianity evolved from the period of religious conflict, and evolved to the point that the basis of progress was based on education and technology in most of northern and southern Europe. Where the evolution did not take place because of more intolerant behaviours such as in Spain with the Spanish Inquisition and ideas from the medieval period, this development based on education and technology lagged severely behind.  Wahhabism developed as a result of a sect started by a religious cleric Wahhab in a poor desert region around Mecca and Medina, now the Saudi Kingdom, who sought the help of a tribal chief Ibn Saud. They used the religious-political alliance to gain tribal dominance in the region. Wahhabism sought to change Islam by banning worship and religious rites at tombs common in that period. It also as Brookings scholar William McCants cited here says, drew "sharp lines" and intolerance between believers and non-believers- all non-believers including other sects of Islam, Shiites, Christians. The movement spread throughout the region, but was crushed by the Ottoman Empire based in Istanbul, Turkey, by the 1850's, only to be revived in the 1920's following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. A Norwegian expert Heggenhammer cited here says clearly Islam did not benefit from the evolution that other religions had, and Wahhabism has slowed this evolution into and open, tolerant religion because of its "sharp lines" and intolerance of other faiths and ideas with the Wahhabism from a medieval perod. In India the British rule brought enlightenment thinkers (John Stuart Mill for example was a clerk for the British East India company). But no such change happened under Ottoman rule to inspire leaders like Gandhi and Nehru to setup a new constitution that made changes from medieval Hindu beliefs such as caste and religious practices based on superstition.  The development of an oil rich state in Saudi Arabia with the discovery of oil, and the dependence from 1950-2010 of the global economy, has led say experts to the export of the Wahhabist kind of Islam to other countries in Middle East and South Asia. This they say made the evolution to democracy and peaceful coexistence difficult or impossible in the region. ...

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Compromise reached at the October 2010 G-20 meeting in S. Korea to reduce trade imbalances, and for countries with current account surplus exceeding 4% of GDP (China 4.7% and Germany 6.1%) to bring these balances down by 2015. Countries with large current account deficits, Turkey 5.2% and South Africa 4.3%, were expected to bring their deficits down and increase national savings. The US is at 3.2%. The US proposal for a target was accepted by Japan as long as it was not a fixed target but a reference point. Germany was opposed, saying it was a return to planned economy thinking. China did not comment on the issue. Canada, Australia and the UK supported the US position. The compromise was an effort to continue pressure on China to redirect its policies away from exports to increasing domestic consumption, while still refraining from a fixed target. It also takes some of the pressure off a fast track currency rebalancing, with China expected to increase the value of the yuan, but given more flexibility than the rhetoric would suggest....

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Friedman on the ouster of president Morsi after only one year in office following large scale protests. He sees this as the beginning of a fallback of political Islam, with the protests of secularists in Turkey, the shift to a moderate candidate Rouhani in Iran's presidential election, the shift of the Emhada Islamist party in Tunisia to work with center-left parties in writing the constitution, and the election of a western educated political scientist to lead a coalition government in Libya. In each country the secular and liberal leaders and the young people felt the revolution was being stolen from them by Islamist parties and are asserting themselves to gain a voice in government. The Islamist party in Egypt has older leaders, an authoritarian structure and hierarchy, which failed to incorporate liberal and other opinion in writing the constitution and in forming the government. A more tolerant and open Islamist party needs to be part of a broad based government with other parties, which can focus on the economy, unemployment, infrastructure and public services....

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GDP expanded at 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Turkey Statistics Office. This follows a contraction by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016. For the full year the GDP growth is 2.9 percent, a decline from the 6.1% in 2015. In 2015 Turkey gained from lower oil prices. This was offset in 2016 by the politics in the region- the increased instability in the country following a crackdown on the opposition and media, internal conflict in the Kurdish region which appeared for a time to be leading to peaceful settlement. As a result tourism revenues declined by 30% and this was offset by increased government spending. The uncertainty before the referendum also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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DW.com takes a deeper look at the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, an autonomous region of Azerbaijan now populated and controlled by ethnic Armenians. It has grown rapidly in the last decade at around 10% annual growth and 17% in 2017 with an influx of ethnic Armenians who have settled in the region with its higher average incomes. Karabakh has a large mining industry which provides employment for Armenians moving into Karabakh.  During the 1920's Azerbaijan and Armenia were part of the Soviet Republics which lasted till 1991. The Soviets made Karabakh part of Azerbaijan SSR with considerable autonomy. Since 1991 several wars have taken place with the largely Armenian population declaring itself independent of Azerbaijan.  Azerbaijan is three fifths Shiite and one third Sunni with close ties to its southern neighbor Iran, leading to efforts by Iran to mediate the conflict. There are social and political overtones for the conflict. Azerbaijan oil exports have been hit hard by the drop in the oil price and drop in global oil demand. Armenia has seen remittances from its 11 million Armenians living overseas drop by about 40%. Both countries face endemic corruption. Azerbaijan get 90% of export revenues from oil which is 40% of GDP. EBRD estimates exports fell by 25% in the first quarter and GDP will decline by 3% this year. Strict lockdown has also hurt the economy hard. Armenia expects a decline of 3.5% in GDP in 2020. Armenia is trying to tackle corruption with reforms since the Velvet Revolution in 2018. The conflict is a distraction from the economic and political situation, says Caucasus region expert Sylvia Stober. It could be politicians making a point as economic and social conditions deteriorate, with outside influence. Turkey has backed intervention in Libya and now supports Azerbaijan a Muslim neighbor.  Russia has a defense pact with its Orthodox Christian neighbor Armenia. In 2018 a short war lasted only 4 days when Russia intervened. This time Russia which has a defense pact with Armenia is looking to have Armenia join its Eurasia Economic Union. Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan looks to Europe for closer ties. Russia supplies both warring parties in this conflict and acts as a mediator in a ceasefire. Outside influence is aggravating the conflict which has now displaced about half the population in Karabakh.   ...

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This editorial in the New York Times points out that the new president of the ANC party -that runs South Africa and has a monopoly of power in the post Apartheid years, under Mandela, Mbeki and Zuma- faces a uphill task as the ANC remains deeply divided after supporting Mr. Zuma in office till the very end. Apart from the stagnant economy, there are challenges the ANC faces in the lethargy of the post Apartheid years, and the culture of corruption, and patronage management that led to mismanagement of state enterprises.

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India agrees to an immediate ceasefire after a call from Pakistan's head of military operations for a ceasefire. The conflict started with attack on tourism that was reviving the Kashmir economy after three decades through a terrorist attack killing 26 tourists in Phalgam, Kashmir on  April 22, 2025 in the mountains near the Pir Panjal range. 24 million tourists visited Kashmir in 2024. Indian response was swift on May 7 early morning hours attacking 18 terrorist camps inside Pakistan occupied Kashmir and inside Pakistan. India called it a act of self-defense to Pakistan sponsored state terrorism going back to 1947. What is different in this brief 4 day war is that India made it economic with efforts at IMF to make terrorism an issue for loans to Pakistan, and ending the Indus Waters Treaty on water sharing. Pakistan economy is struggling with no debt relief from China, making it turn to the IMF, a politically split population with Opposition leader Imran Khan in jail, and continued domination by the military over civilian govenrment. On May 9 drone attacks were launched from Pakistan using Turkish made drones in large numbers on cities and towns in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab. Blackouts were placed in India by May 8 in all cities in the north and in Pakistan. India responded with its own drones and missile attacks on three military airbases as the war broadened to military targets on May 10. US mediated a ceasefire through Saudis and Turkey. Earlier Saudis and Iran were in New Delhi with whom India has good relations to get a ceasefire. Mr. Trump's efforts behind the scenes secured an agreement. VP Vance had cut short an Indian trip in Jaipur on April 22. India and the US are allies in the Indo-Pacific, and India and Russia have decades of friendly relations. China now uses Pakistan as a proxy state, but does not provide the economic aid it needs, for which it has turned to the IMF.    ...

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This Spiegel report looks at how far Germany has come in tackling the refugee crisis one year later in September 2016. It looks at the progress in several areas- housing, integration through language training, jobs and the labor market, school age children, crime, deportation, political scene and elections. Maintaining public support in the face of incidents such as the ones in Cologne and some terrorist incidents, the protests in cities such as Dresden, was tackled by negotiating a treaty with Turkey to turn back new refugees, and by letting countries in southeastern Europe such as Hungary to close routes used previously. Internal agreement with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the CDU, led to a reduction in refugees granted asylum for each month in 2016. About 220,000 migrants were newly registered in the first half of 2016. Germany's EASY registration system shows 92,000 migrants registered in January and the number dropping to 16,000 in July.  Here are some of the figures on progress as cited by Spiegel. On BAMF, the Federal Office of Migration and Refugees- It has increased staff from 2300 employees in early 2015 to 8000, with many new offices opened, significantly more efficient than before. Housing- about a million refugees have found housing. Thousands of empty beds in emergency shelters and 1000 repurposed gyms are no longer needed. Smaller cities and towns have done better than large cities like Berlin, with hangars at Tempelhof Airport still housing refugees. Barbara Hendricks, Federal Environment and Building Minister of SPD party, has tripled funding for subsidized housing to 1.5 billion euros for 2018. Hendricks wants to repeal a constitutional amendment that shifts housing responsibility to states, so that the federal government is actively involved. Integration- BAMF head Weise estimates a shortage of 200,000 slots in language and integration courses. About 80,000 Afghans are not eligible for the programs. So far estimates by KMK representing education ministers of the 16 federal states, shows 325,000 children and young people integrated into school system in 2014 and 2015. Spiegel estimates 12,000 teachers were hired for this, and an additional 20,000 are needed says GEW. 58,000 daycare spots are needed for children arrived in 2015, and 9400 additional daycare personnel are needed. Wages have been raised. Jobs- The Federal Employment Office says 322,000 refugees were registered and seeking jobs in July 2016. Crime- Police crime statistics show 4% increase but when the asylum and visa related offenses are taken out the crime has not increased as it has appeared in the media. The events in Cologne had started a debate on this issue after teenagers harassed women near the Cathedral square. BKA Federal Criminal Polic Office says 1031 assaults on refugee accomodations happened in 2015, 665 in 2016. Incidents of Islamic terrorists happened in Wurzburg and Ansbach, and authorites have become more vigilant.  Deportation- the central register of foreign nationals has about 220,000 people who have to leave Germany. Because of wars in home countries 172,000 are still in Germany. Political scene- CDU and CSU sister parties have disagreements on immigration policy. There is fear about the country changing. Yet the new children in schools are only about 2% of the school children in Germany. As immigrants are mostly young people who will be required to take language training and integrate in schools and workplaces, the situation is different from the first wave of workers coming in from Turkey in early postwar period. Also lessons have been learned and integration is being required.   So has the most difficult period in this immigration crisis been put behind for Germany? It appears that this is the situation. Germany's economy was strong during the "wilkommen refugees" and it has helped the country deal with it better. The volunteer support certainly helped. State, city, and business leaders responded. What about the claims of Islamization. Because so many of the refugees are from a relatively progressive country such as Syria, and many from urban literate areas, combined with a policy of integration, this could prove to be a different experience for Germany. Because many left because of religious sectarianism or corrupt governments the immigrant mentality as a whole barring some exceptions, is likely different, seeking integration in a different modern culture that prizes the individual and respects his development. Over time and sooner than many realize, Merkel may be proved right when she says- "Germany will be Germany, with everything that is near and dear to us." When it comes to politics the CDU and CSU are taking the "homeland" theme as their own. Across the Atlantic Germany's example is being followed- as the number just a trickle about 4000 refugees admitted in 2014, has been increased to 110,000 for 2017 by president Obama, showing the power of the example in the face of adversity and skepticism. German culture and society tended to be insular and the experience of this type, difficult as it has been, and not something that was actively sought out, may have a positive effect. Particularly with the scarred immigrants who may want to embrace the new culture and not look back at what they left behind.   ...

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John Taylor on the dangers of a loose U.S. monetary policy and the effects this had in fueling a housing bubble in Spain, Ireland and other EU countries. Taylor points to the bubble ocurring in emerging market economies from low interest rates. Taylor says the ECB's interest rate moves in 2003-2005 were affected by the Fed's low interest rates. He estimates the ECB set rates about two percentage points too low leading to housing bubbles in EU countries. A similiar process is taking place today with the Fed's near zero interest rate policy. Taylor points to interest rates in a group of 18 emerging market economies- including Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Turkey, which have held interest rates on average about 5 percentage points below widely used benchmarks fueling a doubling of global commodity prices between 2009-2011. The U.S. Fed's policies make it harder for central banks in emerging market economies to take aggresssive action against bubbles developing in these countries. Taylor says his does not mean that the Fed should not pay attention to the U.S. unemployment rate and long term unemployed, but should keep in mind the negative effects of slowing demand in emerging market economies and in the EU as a result of its monetary policy of keeping rates at near zero for long periods of time. This feeds back to the U.S. economy at a critical time....

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Turkey's transition to democracy and a growing emerging market. Turkey's example provides a pathway for modernization in Egypt.

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This report by Goodman in the NYT shows that the ANC has lost most of the moral authority it had under Mandela. After 9 years under president Zuma, and after the term of his predecessor Mr. Mbeki from 1999-2008, South Africa remains stuck with stagnant economy, and about two thirds of young people in the townships being jobless. The challenge is how to change the economy to where growth is generated and benefits go to a broader section of the population. Problems the new president Ramaphosa faces are how to change the protections given to conglomerates that dominated the economy under Apatheid, and the patronage network that evolved with the ANC in the post Apartheid era. Growth performance of the South African economy is dismal. According to the World Bank the South African economy in 2016 was about the size of the economy in 2009. Many warnings about the economy and the operation of the state run electric utility appeared during Mr. Zuma's presidency, including one by former president De Klerk. Growth in 2018 is expected to be only about 1.1%. The economic gains by the largely black population have suffered with lack of growth and mismanagement of the economy. Official unemployment is at 27%, with about two thirds of the young people in the townships being jobless.  ...

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Steve Lee Myers reporting from Moscow and St. Petersburg, Jo Becker from Washington and London, and Jim Yardley from Nicosia, Cyprus, provide this extraordinary and exceptional report on the rise of a small group of friends, mostly from Mr. Putin's time in St. Petersburg, into a new sort of oligarchy replacing the old one under Mr. Yeltsin. This includes more familiar names such as Sechin at Rosneft, but also less familiar names such as Mr. Kovalchuk, chairman of Bank Rossiya, which owns major television and radio stations and newspapers in Russia. M. Kovalchuk is described as having acquired many of these media properties at a fraction of their real value. Bank Rossiya assumed management of assets of Gazprombank, and Gazprom bank purchased Gazprom Media with five television and a number of radio stations for $166 million, when Medvedev, a Putin associate put the value at $7.5 billion 2 years following the acquisition, according to this report. Other assets acquired in this manner include Channel 5 and Ren TV, giving Putin's inner circle control of the media and reducing any critical or different views on issues facing Russia. Many of Gazprom's assets were transferred to Bank Rossiya, say critics, including insurer Sogaz which was acquired for $100 million, later valued at $2 billion, says the report. Names on the this inner circle also include Yakunin, head of Russian Railways, also include names like Fursenko and Timchenko. Most of the people in this inner circle are now targets of western sanctions. Missing in this report is mention that that this inner circle of the second term as president replaces the larger circle of the first terms as president and prime minister, with Putin benefitting from experts and advisors in the first terms. That circle included Finance minister Kudrin known for his successful management of the economy, and others who left the administration after flawed parliamentary elections. Even prime minister Medvedev is not mentioned as part of this inner circle, suggesting a degree of isolation which could be perilous for the Russian economy as it deprives the Russian president of different opinion and useful advice. This is a pattern seen in many emerging market countries which experience corruption during the period of industrial development. A pattern seen also in China under the Communist Party. And in Venezuela where a new Bolivarist class was created. In emerging market democracies such as India and Turkey the problem is also present, except that in India the recent open election led to the ouster of the Congress led government with many cases of corruption in its second term. A similiar election led to a new government in Indonesia, showing that there is another way beyond the Putin Way. Behind the protests in Hong Kong and in Russia, as well as in India, were the huge gaps in wealth and the growing inequality, corruption, lack of responsiveness of ruling governments. In Russia this takes another dimension with efforts to control the internet and media, and efforts to spread this style of democracy. This has created problems in the Putin government's relations with western nations having open societies and free media, and unwilling to accept a distorted model of democracy. Another less noticed aspect of the evolution of these emerging markets is that upto a point development proceeds even accelerates even in the presence of corruption, and then reaches a point where development and growth slows with problems of corruption, mismanagement of resources, declining productivity, economic and political errors, or unfavorable external environment. India faced this problem in 2012-2013, Russia is likely to face this in 2015, and China faces the prospect of growth slowdown by 2016. This feature of emerging markets also reminds one of the frequently quoted old English saying by Lord Acton- "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." An idea also attributed to William Pitt the Elder who said- "unlimited power tends to corrupt the minds of those who possess it." ...