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MBZ Mohamed Bin Zayed's leadership in UAE, the exit from OPEC and recognition of Israel, that is changing the Middle East. India has close relations with UAE and there are 9 million Indians working in the Gulf region. MBZ and Saudi leader Salman were close until both leaders differed on oil prices. Saudis wanted to keep oil prices high to finance its ambitious projects which contrasted with the UAE interest in increasing production. Saudis have a less diversified economy whereas the UAE has tourism and finance as other business sectors. UAE has capacity to produce 5 million barrels a day, but is only allowed by OPEC to produce 3.5 million barrels a day. US president DJT says UAE's exit from OPEC should lead to lower oil prices. About 250,000 British nationals live in UAE and millions of Indians. Even though the Abu Dhabi and Dubai region of UAE is small it has a large population of 12 million with about 10 million expatriates from India. It is also amore advanced economy with the help of the British and India, and now Israel. Saudi population is about 35 million and Saudis were poised to recognize Israel in 2024-2025. Egypt, the largest Arab nation, has shifted policy to be part of a Middle East that seeks modernization and economic development after decades of war and has close relations with UAE, so does Morocco, another Arab country with close ties to Europe and India.    ...

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JD Vance and the effort to reach the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran using its neighbors Egypt, Pakistan, and Qatar, Turkey in negotiations. Seen from the perspective of Asia- of all the Middle East countries, of Asian countries India, China and Japan, all these countries were involved in different ways to get that memorandum and 90 days of talks on the nuclear and other issues for Iran to access funds to stabilize its economy now in free fall. Each of these countries have prevailed in discussions that were conducted privately but whose result are amply evident, persuading DJT and Vance, Rubio, to take a different approach. And each of these countries have a major stake in ending the state of war that led to the events including the missile attacks and the bombing that also raised the price of oil and gas, fertilizer and restricted supply to the point that each country would suffer. There is now a collective will of all these countries and of countries like Brazil and Africa/Latin America to push for a new path. This is not understood in the media, because this was never before tried by previous administrations, and comes when the world as a whole is seeking a new approach.  ...

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Reliance India Limited to build 168,000 b/d Clean shale oil refinery in Brownsville Texas, to cut US trade imbalance of $58 billion with India by $15 billion a year, about 25%. Much of the product could be exported to India from the port of Brownsville in Texas. This helps improve relations with India as the US president was looking for ways to cut the trade deficit with India. The US India trade agreement is based on increased energy exports by US to India. US has a trade imbalnce with India of $58 billion which was an issue in recent trade talks with India. US wants India to get energy product from the US under the US India Trade Agreement. The president of America First Refining Trey Giggs says- "The United States has a surplus of light shale oil but a shortage of refining capacity designed to process it." This CLEAN refinery will strengthen the domestic supply chain. For India and Reliance (RIL) this is also a way to get out of the quagmire of getting supplies from the Middle East.   ...

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Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12 and Iranian refusal on nuclear weapons development and ballistic missiles leading to collapse in 21 hours of talks. Vance leaves talks and US plans to impose a naval blockade of Iran. This report by the Guardian shows that media coverage has created a sense of delusion that the world including the poorest countries in the world in Asia, in Latin America and even in Europe, and the industrialized countries will somehow allow the free navigation for oil and other raw materials to be interrupted by any nation. There are protests all over the world about increase in fuel prices, some of this affects LPG supplies for cooking in countries with a population of 1.4 billion people (India) many times that of the entire Middle East. Tens of millions of migrant workers head back to their homes in poorest states in India as LPG cylinder prices quadruple and are in short supply April 13, 2026.It also affects China and Japan which are dependent on Hormuz,  not the US which exports oil and does not seek to gain from oil prices. Posturing by the media and European governments on this issue has created this delusion that this is about US actions, when the US is only acting in the interests of all nations to keep the planet safer from dangerous nuclear proliferation in the region most torn by repeated wars in the last 50 years. Some of the language used about attacks on power plants has become a reason to justify such reporting to present aggressive ballistic missile development and nuclear weapons development in Iran in a benign way, becoming oblivious of how it affects the lives of billions of people around the world, as the Middle Eastern region a small fraction of the world's population (less than 7%) and a small fraction of the planet's surface (less than 6%) continues to operate in a way that is destructive for the lives of people around the world.   ...

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Idea that control over Straits of Hormuz is US goal is repudiated by DJT in his Address to the Nation, yet it finds its way into the media. There is no war for US to win, it is only about removing a nuclear and ballistic missile threat, nothing to do with oil. MAGA base, US public has rejected these wars in remote countries of the Middle East, when reindustrialization is the goal, not repeating the mistakes of Bush and Obama who by fighting these wars for 8 years in Iraq wasted resources and pursued policies that deindustrialized the Nation and weakened the heartland of America. Beyond limiting the threat of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles that could hit US, Europe and other nations there is no other goal. US and DJT repeatedly pointed out that being self sufficient it does not need Iranian or Iraqi or Saudi oil. The president even said in his Address that the US wanted to supply other countries with oil as it produced more than Saudi and Russia combined, and not counting Venezuelan oil production ramp up expected by 3-4 million barrels a day. Behind this is the known fact that China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits, so it is up to these nations and India and Britain to find solutions to Hormuz not the US. ...

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Bill Clinton, a former president, is no longer a popular figure in the Democratic Party in 2025. A new generation of leaders in the Democrats seek to put Clinton in the past. Clinton's main achievement are the peace accords in Ireland and in the Balkans with Serbia and Croatia, Bosnia. In domestic policy Clinton did little to anticipate the problems of getting health insurance for all, outshoring, and increasing jobs and wages for factory workers. He was involved in the scandal with an intern that led to efforts to impeach him and resulted in much of the second term being wasted in the process. It was under his successor Bush that the egregious provision that removed the power of Medicare to negotiate prices of drugs with manufacturers was passed. Bush was pushed into the war in the Middle East after 9/11 attacks by Middle East terrorists and havens in Afghanistan, that led to a two decades war in Afghanistan. Withdrawal happened under DJT and Biden consuming resources and time leading to the affordability crisis, outshoring of jobs and lower wages for factory workers. No one talks now about Clinton, Bush, Obama, because of these wars and the loss of America's leadership in manufacturing, squandered resources of attention, time and money that would have created new infrastructure and health insurance for all, inshoring. ...

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This video and reports from the G-7 Summit in Les Bains, France is notable for one aspect that was missing throughout previous administrations and provides clues on the discussions that must have taken place for the Iran peace memorandum approach for 90 days of talks. India's Modi is at the table, so is Lula of Brazil, for the first time a G9. Both Lula and Modi are shown at the opposite side of the table from the European leaders. Another picture of the table shows Modi on the right of DJT and Macron on his left suggesting the important role that India has played behind the scenes to the memorandum approach to put the burden of talks on the details to a next 90 day phase of discussion. It makes sense after so many missile attacks and bombing to create a period of calm for discussions. It has also benefits for the US and EU/Japan in G7 now the G-9 with India and Brazil and G-9 plus 1 with Egypt brought in for discussions. This type of involvement and intense discussions to solve conflict are unknown in previous administrations and with no details about the agreement the media is left without a clue. Yet it is clear from this involvement of every major nation, as Lyrarc.com shows however rancorous the disagreements and back and forth including from Merz, Starmer, Macron to DJT, that something significant has been achieved- getting everyone to the table for frank and open discussions for a path forward. That includes G-9 as Lyrarc calls it and Russia, China where talks were held by DJT in Alaska and Beijing in 2025 and 2026. It could be called G-9 + 3 (China, Russia and Egypt). The importance of Egypt is that it is the most populous nation in the Middle East. The issues of food security (fertilizer supply), energy (oil and gas), and nuclear free Middle East are important to all these nations. In addition Pakistan serves on the Board of Peace.  This brings as collective world opinion to help the US lead in its shared goal with these 13 nations to bring about a solution for the people of the world on the nuclear issue and restore each to the path of development and modernization, including Iran with its neighbors support in the best way possible. A good insight into this is evident just from looking at the situation facing Pakistan and also India, both are nuclear powers yet both have suffered (even more so nations with military structures such as the Pakistan military and the Iranian RGC with diversion of resources to military), both Pakistan and India have suffered from the economic crisis with nuclear power making little difference in the lives of the people with shortage of energy and decline in growth.  By bringing in all nations into the discussion on nuclear free Middle East- the US and its partners India, Japan, Brazil, along with Russia and China- a first major step has been achieved to set the path for reindustrialization/infrastructure building in the US and Europe. And for modernization/infrastructure building in India, Pakistan, Egypt and Brazil, sustained development out of middle income status for China. ...

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Countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal are severely affected by the war in Persian Gulf region in other ways that access to oil and fertilizer supplies. They are affected when the Gulf economy collapses and expatriate workers are laid off or return. The situation is dire in these countties because as the DW.com says remittances exceed exports in the case of Pakistan. Is such a model viable asks DW.com. All these countries are also affected by internal strife, with new governments in place in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka after protests over economic conditions and jobs. The entire Middle East model for Gulf countries including Saudi, Iran are also facing a new situation as the Western countries, US and EU and Asia shift to nuclear energy, solar energy and find ways to conserve at an accelerated pace so that there will be less dependence on fossil fuels. Recently India announced on its national television channel that one third of peak demand is already being met by solar energy. India's PM Modi says in rallies across the country that he would make it possible for households to have zero electric bills because of solar panels on homes. Germany and Japan are further along on this path to create a renewable energy reliance and phasing out fossil fuels. ...

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Oil prices and the US war with Iran -Straits of Hormuz how much of it remains open, European supplies, and drop in production in Gulf region, how these risks are managed will have an impact on inflation. Inflation could end up at 2.9% instead of 2% says Greg Ip. Gep Ip does not take into acocunt new flexible oil policy under which India gets a waiver to buy oil supplies from Russia, China sources more of its supplies from Russia to make up for the supplies lost from the Middle East. Russia steps in for a temporary period to keep oil prices lower. US ramps up Venezuelan and its own oil production to meet the needs of other countries such as Japan and S. Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Europe. Conservation measures are enacted to reduce oil use for the same level of GDP as taken in Japan and Germany.

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Three BBC correspondents on China's 2026 National People's Congress - effort to invest in childcare and elder care services to increase consumer spending. To continue in solar, robotics, AI, EV's, and exports as before. The problems of industrial overcapacity and pushing subsidized product into the US or EU that cause trade tensions and tariffs will continue.  New 301 investigations by US Trade Representative are taking place and will complete by mid-July. Germany's chancellor was in Beijing making a similar point about industrial overcapacity and German business is now facing the same threats to their business that the US has gone through. The one other way for China to grow is to increase consumer spending- hence the effort to help young people with childcare costs and retired people with elder care. The payments to seniors is low says the BBC's McDonnell who says the increase in payment to rural and non-working urban residents of $3 per month is miniscule. No details given for housing support to newly married couples. On one aspect relevant to the Iran war-China is increasing its efforts on renewable energy to reduce imports from volatile Middle East. ...

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Iran War and rescue of pilot of downed F15-E in mountainous terrain in southern Iran April 4 2026. CSAR or Search and Rescue Missions become a critical part of the war. The pilot was a colonel trained for the mission and spent 24 hours in mountainous terrain which was monitored by US forces, after intelligence located him in a mountain crevice. For this to be possible unlike in the Vietnam War and Korean War other nations are not involved as in the earlier Cold War.  The US under DJT as president has shifted to respecting Russia as a Northern European power that it can talk with (meetings with Putin in Alaska 2025) and China as a trade partner (planned meeting in Beijing in April 2026) that it can talk with unlike with previous administrations of Biden, Obama and Bush where China had afree hand in economic matters and global trade and Russia was shut out of the world economic system by elites who ran the government in the US at that time. Russia seeks reintegration in the world political and economic systems, and China seeks acceptance as an economic power which the US respects, both points in which the US has offered to accept. US has also repeated the line to China that it was not going to do the job of keeping Hormuz open for China and Japan to get 90% of oil imports, and in oding so risk losing its soldier's lives, while China and Japan can quietly watch doing nothing to help free navigation of international waters. Note that the narrowest strip of water of 13 miles separates Oman from Iran so that a part of these waters are on the Omani side and not on the Iranian side making free use of that Omani part under international law possible- in which sense Iranian hostile activity closing the Omani side also is a violation of free navigation. This is not pointed out by Iran or Japan or even Britain who are benefitting from US action and remaining silent or being ambivalent or accusing US of being interventionist even when everyone knows MAGA base rejected Bush in the Republican party and the elites and embraced DJT for great part because they want nothing to do with interventionist adventures in the Middle East for certain. US is getting a bum rap from European allies and from China, India, Japan and the media inside the US and in those countries as if the US seeks oil from the Middle East. It was Britain where a lot of the posturing goes on about non intervention that started this oil based intervention since 1900 in Iran itself, and in artificial states of Iraq, Syria, that it created out of the collapsed Ottoman Empire in World War 1. Sykes and Picot were the US and French diplomats who set that up. US under DJT has accomplished self sufficiency in oil and US has no need for anything from the Middle East, no desire to even get involved, and MAGA well grasps that fact and wants to keep it that way. Only nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles with long range to hit US and EU are reason for US action, which is reason enough for EU, China, Russia to set their own goals so that non proliferation in dangerous areas is prevented. So that the people of China, Russia, India, Europe and the rest of the world can enjoy the fruits of their own labors after a century of severe hardships and struggles which the American people if not their elites respect, and the fruits of peaceful cooperation which the American people extend to the World, and to China, Russia and India. ...

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The broken world economy has hurt the American people, in small communities and towns across the US whose societal fabric was destroyed by a system of world trade with abuses done by China. Japan, European Union, Canada and Mexico since 2000. Shortsighted American leaders and economists allowed this to happen. Robert Lighthizer on the New World Order a new system of world trade that replaces the old in 2026. The old trading system was one in which lip service was made to free trade while all the time the system was used by Japan, Germany, China, Canada, Mexico and other nations to build non tariff barriers and other policies to support their industry  at the expense of the United States leading to disillusionment in the US. The facts are mind boggling- the loss of 5 million jobs, many small communities across the US decimated with loss of jobs. About 20 trillion in wealth transfers to China and other countries over 2000-2020, with foreigners owning $27 trillion more of US assets than the US owns of theirs. US Trade Deficits that went up by 40% in 4 years of the Biden administration from $800 billion to $1.2 trillion. Economists and weak leaders got it all wrong allowing this to happen from Geoge W. Bush to Clinton Bush and Obama. Lighthizer says "shortsighted leaders aided and abetted this process," from 1990 to early 2010. Consider that US had 17.3 million  people in manufacturing, in factories all over the US in 1970, in 1999 we had the same number of jobs, even though there were changes in technology and productivity- the US held its own with the rest of the world. The Bush, Obama years were the worst for the US industry - by 2026 we have 12.6 million - loss of 4.7 million jobs since 1999. And real median household income took a big hit growing from $72,000 to $84,000 about 17% in the last 25 years, compared to twice that in the period 1975-2000 prior quarter century. The result is the fracturing of American society- and dire consequences for healthcare as communities suffered from loss of jobs leading to drug overdoses, alcohol abuse and suicides, which are common in post industrial American communities. Think of this fact: two thirds of America's workforce that does not have a college degree, that is working class people, lives 8 fewer years than college graduates, a gap that was only 2.5  years in 1992. The wars carried on by Bush and continued by Obama in the Middle East also wracked these same communities till Biden and DJT pulled out. One has only to drive across America to see this with one's own eyes. Trade may be an abstract topic for economists and politicians- there is nothing abstract about this. And the economic growth of the US has suffered with the unfair trading system with China, European Union, Japan, Canada and Mexico. From 1945 to 2000 American growth was 3.2% a year. Since 2000 only 2 years of growth over 3%. US has not seen historically normal growth for the last 19 years and at this rate (if we continued along this path) the Congressional Budget Office says 1.8% growth for 2027-2035. There are other factors yet the the major driver of this is our trade deficit of $1.2 trillion dollars a year. It is a story of remarkable persistence in the Nation's interest through 2 adminstrations- this Lighthizer story. Lighthizer fought Japanese commercial interests as Deputy Trade Representative under Ronald Reagan, and as US Trade Representative under DJT in the first DJT administration in 2016-2020. His Deputy at the time is Jamieson Greer who is now the US Trade Representative in the second DJT adminstration in 2025. For 30 years this brave American patriot has fought to reverse the bad actions of presidents and economists that have led to devastating losses in the American countryside. He says any new trading system must be perceived as fair to working people. It will survive only if working people think it is good for them. It cannot and must entrench a small, permanent elite. The benefits going to labour must be at least as great as those going to capital. It should create fulfilling high paying jobs for the vast majority of the American people. This is America's new promise to its people, its new compact with its people. ...

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Sanae Takaichi press conference with DJT at White House March 19 2026- there is no mention of Japanese help with clearing Straits of Hormuz. US Japan relations after the meeting of Takaichi and DJT at the White House appear to be in good shape. Japan will invest $73 billion in US investment projects in 2026 as part of the $550 billion commitment made at the time of the US Japan trade deal in 2025 under the previous LDP prime minister. Takaichi is coming with strong support in Japan after winning a landslide victory in the general election. Japan's main concern is the belligerent North Korea and China's posture in Asia as it relates to Taiwan. Agreements were reached on critical issues- to develop alternative supplies of critical minerals, to rebuild the shipbuilding industry which US and Japan had given up after dominating it for most of the 20th century. This is critical to ensure open navigation on the oceans of the world. Agreements on high tech and AI, and agreement to purchase Alaskan oil to cut Japan's 90% dependence on volatile Middle East supplies. Japan has managed Middle East supply by keeping over 254 days of inventory but this looks to be very risky as Germany learned from its dependence on Russian oil which went in the wrong direction under Merkel. Japan has released about 18% of its total reserve amount of the 254 days inventory (146 days in national reserves and 101 days in private mandated reserves). It uses 3.14 million barrels a day in 2026 down from 5.8 million barrels a day in 1996, using about half today through conservation and using renewable energy showing the potential for the US and Europe. Germany has cut oil consumption by a third in comparison from 2.9 mbd in 1996 to 2.0 in 2026. And the US remains stagnant with oil demand highest in 2005 at 20.5 mbd and 20 years later at 20.5 mbd mainly because 14mbd or 70% goes to cars and trucks on the road for 347 million people over continental spaces (compared to 297 million in 2005) for a reduction of oil use of 15%. ...

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The changes taking place in Saudi Arabia under Prince Mohamad Bin Salman are the subject of this article from Prof. Mohsin Khan of Jindal Global University. Similar changes were initiated earlier under MBZ Mohamad Bin Zayad in the UAE which inspired the changes in Saudi Arabia. The effects are easy to see for Upward Mobility, Diversity, the economy, the relations with the EU and the US and other countries, the shift away from oil to renewables, women's participation in the workplace, and education in science and technology. During the last 50 years the wars in the Middle East have wasted resources in unimaginable ways, human and in trillions of dollars that could have improved the quality of life and ease of living of people. The result is that like Britain in the nineteenth century the US in the 21st shows no interest in Afghanistan or regions of South Asia which have scattered its resources. The shift now is to the seas and the region that covers the west coast of Africa through the Indian Ocean to the Pacific past Indonesia to Japan and the Hawaiian islands, the western coast of the US- called the Indo-Pacific. With the US, India, Australia, and Japan committed to freedom of navigation and international law in the region. It is all about investment, new supply chains, trade and growth, science and technology. And the UAE, Saudi now fit in within this larger framework, along with the European Union, and other countries in this region. ...

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Scott Shane of the NYT provides this exceptional account of how the ideology of Wahhabism on which the Saudi monarchy is based has influenced the evolution of Islam, but not in the way other religions have evolved into more moderate and open religions. Christianity evolved from the period of religious conflict, and evolved to the point that the basis of progress was based on education and technology in most of northern and southern Europe. Where the evolution did not take place because of more intolerant behaviours such as in Spain with the Spanish Inquisition and ideas from the medieval period, this development based on education and technology lagged severely behind.  Wahhabism developed as a result of a sect started by a religious cleric Wahhab in a poor desert region around Mecca and Medina, now the Saudi Kingdom, who sought the help of a tribal chief Ibn Saud. They used the religious-political alliance to gain tribal dominance in the region. Wahhabism sought to change Islam by banning worship and religious rites at tombs common in that period. It also as Brookings scholar William McCants cited here says, drew "sharp lines" and intolerance between believers and non-believers- all non-believers including other sects of Islam, Shiites, Christians. The movement spread throughout the region, but was crushed by the Ottoman Empire based in Istanbul, Turkey, by the 1850's, only to be revived in the 1920's following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. A Norwegian expert Heggenhammer cited here says clearly Islam did not benefit from the evolution that other religions had, and Wahhabism has slowed this evolution into and open, tolerant religion because of its "sharp lines" and intolerance of other faiths and ideas with the Wahhabism from a medieval perod. In India the British rule brought enlightenment thinkers (John Stuart Mill for example was a clerk for the British East India company). But no such change happened under Ottoman rule to inspire leaders like Gandhi and Nehru to setup a new constitution that made changes from medieval Hindu beliefs such as caste and religious practices based on superstition.  The development of an oil rich state in Saudi Arabia with the discovery of oil, and the dependence from 1950-2010 of the global economy, has led say experts to the export of the Wahhabist kind of Islam to other countries in Middle East and South Asia. This they say made the evolution to democracy and peaceful coexistence difficult or impossible in the region. ...

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Iran's economy following the naval blockade- WSJ cites assessment by Miad Maleki who led Treasury's sanctions campaign on Iran in 2025. Loss of $435 million of economic activity per day and oil shut ins in 2 weeks. As the Europeans sit out this naval blockade and US rethinks its participation in NATO, as the poorer countries in the world are affected by the shortages including Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and others around the world, the one baffling aspect is how far a nation (Iran)could let its economic prospects be affected to continue uranium enrichment. It is about the failure of another Middle Eastern nation to modernize and improve the living standards of its people, (after Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Syria and Iraq),  wasting a once in a centuries opportunity to do this wasting an oil dividend that will only last to 2035 when renewable energy may replace fossil fuels. Instead leaving the region with intermittent wars and destruction from the wars since 1950, falling behind in a world that is rapidly modernizing in China and India with about 3 billion people committed to modernization. ...

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India's 267 million farmers 44% of the workforce that make it difficult to reduce 39% tariff on imported dairy and grain. Older Americans have lost the memories of famines in India including one in Bihar in the 1960's, not to mention the Bengal famine during the British rule in 1944 in which Britannica says 3 million people lost their lives. By 1965 India depended on US grain. Dhume reminds readers that in as recent as 1966 9 million tons, a quarter of US wheat crop, was sent to India to prevent famine. China had a similar situation of famine and starvation in the 20th century. This is why India and China have focused effort on achieving self sufficiency in food, and  agricultural productivity is one of the great achievements of the 20th century ranking with electricity and other inventions. When it comes to other upscale agricultural products such as walnuts, blueberrries, and almonds, and other, India's middle class would benefit from nutritional benefits of US agriculture in these fields at low or no tariffs. This suggests there is room for opening some sectors other than dairy and grain that are staple to the Indian diet of the vast population. US 50% tariff is motivated by India going from 2% Russian oil imports in 2019, to shifting importing from Saudis and UAE to Russia so that Russia now makes up a third of it's oil imports by 2024. In May it reached 4 million barrels a day dropping to 2 million barrels a day by July 2024.   ...

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California gets 75% of its oil from imports and one third of imports from refineries dependent on Hormuz Straits. 20% of jet fuel comes from South Korean refineries, and 25% of gasoline from South Korean, Indian and Taiwanese refineries. This means things can get very tight if the war continues in the Middle East. This could happen as South Korean, Indian and Taiwanese refineries become low in their own stocks and export much less. California has not benefitted from the shale revolution in the Permian basin as pipelines do not exist for transporting that oil. Shipping oil on tanker ships from Texas to California costs more than shipping oil to California from Asian refineries. Over 20 years California lost 50% of its oil refining capacity by creating conditions averse to the oil industry, instead of adopting a two pronged approach of shifting to renewable energy with some flexibility for fossil fuels hat was adopted by the federal Biden administration, also run by Democrats. As a result Chevron which was California based for 144 years shifted its headquarters to Houston,Texas. There are no signs Governor Newsom, a Democrat is reversing his position to show more flexibility on fossil fuels during a transition phase to renewable energy.  ...

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China’s 15th Five-Year Plan recommendations set out China’s energy and climate priorities - from the Sino-German Cooperation on Climate Change. It says in its Conclusion as it relates to China's Energy Initiative working with German cooperation. It shows China is committed to cutting its reliance on fossil fuels from the Middle East particularly now with the situation in the Iran War and cutoff of such supplies. It is a broad comprehensive approach to industry, business and society's needs and how to best make the transition to low carbon emissions and renewable energy similar to what Germany is accomplishing on its own. "In essence, the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan point to three main priorities: further expanding renewable energy and modernising the power system to reduce reliance on fossil fuels; shifting policy focus from controlling energy use to directly controlling carbon emissions, including plans to peak coal and oil consumption and expand carbon markets; and integrating climate and low-carbon goals across industry, finance and consumer policies, making green development a central pillar of China’s long-term economic strategy." ...

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As Iranian Foreign Minister left Pakistan before arrival of American negotiators showing lack of interest in negotiations on nuclear issue and navigation on which US has insisted, the talks are on pause. The US goal is only for the safety of the Iranian people and the peoples of the Gulf kingdoms, and the Arab world divided into unmanageable countries in some situations by colonial Empires of the British and French in 1921 (Syria, Iraq), the wider Arab world from Egyot to Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, to be free of nuclear weapons. Because these colonial policies not of the US but of the British and French and the counter response of Arab nationalism, have created 5 decades of wars in the world. It is then to remove these nuclear materials to another country such as Russia. The misperceptions created in the media appear in some parts to cast the US as a colonial power which it never was in the way of the Spanish, the British, the Dutch, the Portuguese, the French, the Danish. In fact exactly the opposite. One cannot think of an American who felt deeply for the situation the Chinese people were left in with the Japanese invasion than Gen. Joe Stilwell, as shown by Barbara Tuchman in her book Stilwell and the American Experience in China. Stilwell amazingly risked his life in railroad cars behind Imperial Japanese Army enemy lines in north eastern China in the 1930's because of his deep ly feelings for China at that time. Ever since the US differed with the British and the French on reparations during the Boxer rebellion of 1902, with Woodrow Wilson using the funds to create Tsinghua University in Peking (Beijing), the US has been benevolent in its intentions and as shown in its policy to Africa a partner for nations in Asia and Africa- with China, India, Indonesia, a large part of the Asian population, and now with Africa as shown in the investments in Angola, Congo, Zambia on this page. FDR made it clear in his letter of reply to Gandhi's letter from Wardha whose side America is on even in the middle of World War II. ...

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For what a ruble buys in Russia , 2.7 times what a dollar buys in the US, Russia gets alot of bang out of its defense budget of $149 billion, about $401 billion (Purchasing power) compared to US $997 billion. Add to this Russia is now a war economy in the war with Ukraine and concentrates its forces in one theatre not four as the US spread out over Indo-Pacific, Europe and Middle East and Korean peninsula. This is the reason behind most of DJT's actions reflecting realities in defense. Shut down the Middle East theatre which is also what the American people want by moving everything in the direction of economic progress, turning down the revolutionary and sectarian ideologies that roiled Egypt of Suez, Iraq and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 60's and dragged the world into costly insane wars. And do this with the consensus of Russia, China and India. Wind down the war in Europe- accept the Russians as a Northern European power with a settlement of the Ukraine conflict, and let Germany lead Europe's defense. Manage the relationship in the Indo-Pacific with India and South and Southwest Asian investments in economic infrastructure that will offset China's rapid growth of the last three decades by incentivizing South Asia and South western Asia parts of which were called the Middle East by the Britons and now can be rengaged in the South /Southwest Asian group of nations led by the US. This is the policy for the next 25 years to 2050 that a Russia, Germany, US, China, India consensus sees as a constructive future for the people of the world.   ...

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Big changes are expected in energy markets after 2026 following the end of the war with Iran, the naval blockade and the Hormuz straits closure. Even when the Shipping returns to Hormuz there will be continued uncertainty and prospect of conflict. As a result China, India, Japan and the US and EU will look for new sources of supply in Latin America for oil and gas including in Guyana, Brazil, Argentina, and in Venezuela. This NYT Analysis  confirms the shift to renewables will accelerate after 2026 with 2-3 years return on investment for renewables, and in 2026 wind+solar+nuclear now generating more electricity worldwide than gas. OPEC stranglehold on oil prices is weakening with UAE's exit from OPEC, and the US+ Venezuela+UAE expanding production. This will benefit poorer countries in the world in Asia, Africa and Latin America, Middle Income countries like China and India, as well as US and EU through lower prices for the new overall energy mix, with a higher component of renewables from every year 2027-2030. Lower priced component for oil possibly at $50 a barrel holding steady to 2030. From this perspective Hormuz's importance will decline over this period to the point that the world's wealth sucked up for far too long in the Middle East through the twin mechanisms of  high oil prices and decades of wars will be shifted back to infrastructure in the EU, US, India and China, Brazil and Indonesia. For the poor countries like Pakistan, India, Indonesia, China and others this is a big deal because instead of the wealth going to princes in the Persian Gulf  it will benefit people in Egypt, Arab countries such as Morocco and Tunisia,Turkey, Pakistan and India, China. Long delayed infrastructure rebuilding in US and European Union can now take place.The shift and trend to renewable energy as a major component of the energy mix of over 50%-60% in India could be expected by 2030 and have a major impact on climate change. (India has already crossed 50% of its energy from renewable sources). China will have installed half of the new renewable energy capacity added by 2030 and this too will add to the fight against climate change. Overall this combination of events and changes underway are overwhelmingly constructive and are not anticipated in this way by most of the world's media including the NY, which see slower growth when the opposite is now the case with accelerating and steady growth expected 2027-2030, and 2030-2035. For the US and EU it could not come at a more opportune time with the determination to invest at home and reindustrialize, build new infrastructure, for India to build a modern country by 2040, and for China or Japan not to get stuck in middle income status with continued modernization to 2040. For the poorest countries to work with these major nations to improve standards of living. For the US it also means the end of the border migrations flows that happened in 2025 taken to the next stage in 2026 and 2027 ending all drug flows across its borders with Mexico- as more lives are lost to fentanyl and other illegal drugs substances (1.25 million since 1999) than were lost in the Korean War (36,000 deaths), Vietnam  War (58,000 deaths) and World War 1 (116,000 deaths) World War II (418,000) all 4 wars combined. Issues of unfair trade deindustrialized the US. This coupled with drugs destroyed small towns and communities (that were based on manufacturing and lost factories) across the US for over 3 decades. The tackling of these issues will also add to the general sense of well being of the people in the US- and also in the European Union. The modernization underway in China and India+Indonesia+Brazil is also part of these changes, promise a rising tide that will lift all boats if we continue together to carefully select the right path ahead and chart the course clear eyed and clear on purpose. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Gerard Baker of the WSJ writes about not getting involved in unnecessary wars and prudent interventions where necessary. He does not bring up the nuclear issue which is the only issue this war was about- is that a prudent intervention where necessary? The other issue is what the Anglo-Saxon,Saxon world and the Europeans think and feel about the Jewish state after the experience deeply unsettling  of World War II for western civilization itself. Throughout 2026 in Britain, UK, Australia and Canada, and in the  European Union, the people have stood by the Jewish people and the Jewish state while also respecting the rights of Palestinian people. Iran's hostility towards the Jewish state, to its elimination, is the reason for the conflict. Is prudent intervention necessary for the US in this context and what is the Anglo-Saxon and European attitude to defending western civilizations thoughts and sentiment?  What does a nuclear weapons state do to the situation in the Middle East- the Arab states and Israel? This is the main reason for the US involvement even as it is committed to no unnecessary wars. A naval blockade during Iranian closure of the Straits is not an escalation, the US did not bomb Kharg Island only imposed a naval blockade. The US is able to sustain this kind of blockade for a long period as it showed in Venezuela and shows in its backyard in Latin American particularly where it is essential that the US stop all drug smuggling on the seas. The Editorial Board of the WSJ has sent warnings to the DJT administration that it would be a mistake to not address the nuclear issue now and to separate it to a subsequent stage as mediators Pakistan and Turkey have arranged for reasons that are not in the US interest- because that would leave Iran to renege on promises and go for nuclear weapons  third time and repeat the failures of the Obama administration. It can be noted that the WSJ reflects the views of the business community in the US which is thoughtful and not prone to overreach or US interventions. Baker is not part of it after resigning as Editor in Chief in 2018. Yet the members of the Board include- Henninger, McGurn, Strassel, Riley, Finley, Noonan, Taranto, O'Grady, Jenkins and many others. It is unlikely that all of these members would have a drastic and strongly interventionist attitude. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Where do you place a winner of the Democratic primary in Maine, Graham Plattner, an oyster farmer who dropped out of college at George Washington University, served briefly in the Middle East wars of Bush and Obama, and had PTSD. Is he working class, middle working class or is he from a downwardly mobile professional class considering he has parents who are well educated and father a prominent lawyer in Maine? Plattner easily defeated a 3 term governor of Maine with his average working class demeanor and language. He is for universal health care, (Medicare for All) universal child care, affordable housing, affordable college. Politics in the US has been moving away from the simple divisions before 1950 created by the Industrial Revolution- the workers in factories and the owners of capital allied with the professional middle class. The few owners of capital mostly college educated allied with people from the non college educated workers in factories who are conservative in their values and beliefs and on the other side the college educated professional middle class now downwardly mobile because of the many recessions and high unemployment from frequent financial crises, with college costing $80,000 a year putting them in deep debt. There is today in the WSJ a story of a professional worker who at $194,000 a year salary is not able to payoff $15000 debt which owners of capital have set at 26% interest and is in downward spiral. Some of this comes from large college and other debt. There is says WSJ Analysis $1.25 trillion in credit card debt alone with highest delinquency rates in decades in 2026. Cost of living has only made things worse and some of this happened as Biden poured money into the economy to help people hurt by the pandemic, yet with some short run consequences with demand strong businesses including hotels, restaurants and grocery stores, auto dealers, jacking up their prices by over 20% in 1 year and Biden failing to respond, getting overwhelmed by open borders migrants under Mayorkas and Harris (also hit by a sudden Venezuelan migrant influx). This is the America one has today- a confusing mix. This in reality means Democrats may take issue with Democrats, Republicans take issue with Republicans, and Democrats join with Republicans on issue by issue basis. It might actually be rational than irrational. On cultural issues if the country has gone over its head and moved too fast on some issues that are not for the general public good, people of different backgrounds can come together to get the best path. On economic issues things are never so straightforward, there are unpredictable consequences and the rules of economics are really not so straightforward either.  Providing relief can mean the government shouldering the burden as during the pandemic which it should, yet with caution as businesses can use the excess demand to raise prices and one is back to square one with everybody worse off as happened with Biden. Migrant flows and fears of insecurity in public spaces can lead to a severe public "discomfort that can waylay the best intentions of a Harris or Biden, leading to public "backlash." In fact the title of a recent book is "Whiplash." Current books include Floridan Marco Rubio's "Decade's of Decadence- How our Spoiled Elites Blew America's Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity." Rubio means it. Its authentic because as Rubio says repeatedly, his parents could make a living in the 1960's working in a factory with decent wages, low cost of living and low cost of college, the arithmetic between salaries and what you needed for decent home in suburbs and sending children to good public schools, then to college, all adding up. The result is that Rubio could go to college and serve in the Florida legislature. Rubio says in 2026, after the elites under Bush and Obama and faulty economic theory shipped all of our factories to China, that the story of his parents and his education would simply be impossible. This is what he told people in India on his first visit last week. His parents were Cuban immigrants, yet he identifies with Spain and with western civilization, a devout Roman Catholic. Rubio is a Republican, and is in large contrast with Alejandro Mayorkas, also from Cuba, and Biden's Head of Homeland Security. This is the mix of people and representatives in Congress,  business people, small business owners, professionals, that we have today in 2026 in the US. Plattner and Rubio, one a Democrat and one a Republican- both have something in common. Plattner also has general disdain for "the corporate interests, the billionaires, the Washington DC elites, and the establishment politicians."  The winds are blowing in the direction of getting things right- remembering that Eisenhower continued the work of the Kennedy and LBJ administrations (Eisenhower built the Interstate Highway System for instance, and LBJ gave America Social Security and Medicare). Before that Franklin Roosevelt a Democrat built on the work of his uncle Republican Theodore Roosevelt (TR gave America the idea of good governance and built the US Navy, FDR fought the Depression and stabilized a faltering economy after mistakes made by Republican Herbert Hoover could have happened even if Hoover was a Democrat. FDR was himself from a wealthy New York family and when he first met fellow New Yorker Frances Perkins before his struggle with polio, a haughty New York gentleman. That was before Frances Perkins as FDR's Labor Secretary joined forces with Roosevelt to give New York a modernized administration governance structure by 1940 that was applied to all 51 states after 1950. It allied labor with capital with fairness for all, and was the first such modern structure of this size the world had ever seen, which was the fundamental strength of the United States of America. It was imitated in Asia, first in the Shanghai region then China, and first in the Ahmedabad region and now India. The US is faced with the challenge of recreating and rebuilding this today, as first China, then India remind America of its roots which they have followed in their own style and culture.  First good governance, then good institutional structures, alligning labor and capital with fairness for all, strong affordable + accessible educational and healthcare systems, and investments of capital and labor for infrastructure + industrial development. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT says time is on their side to negotiators so that the blockade on Iran will remain till a deal is made that cover nuclear materials. US blockade of Iran in force till a deal is reached as final deal will require going beyond Memorandum to nuclear materials -this is the situation on May 24 2026. Mediators Pakistan and Turkey have only got as far as getting a Memorandum- a written document of intentions not actions taken on nuclear materials- while all the time the IRGC Iran says nuclear is not included. What explains this? There are now two factions inside Iran that are the IRGC and the elected president of Iran, one not as committed to nuclear weapons as the IRGC at the cost to the people of Iran and the nation's economic future. This war has proved that while oil producing countries are causing great damage to their economies and productive potential- this includes Russia, Iran and Saudis-the world is moving on its goal of reduced dependence on oil followed by fossil free future in 2 stages. By the first stage if modernization does not take place in the Middle East it will lose forever the opportunity to modernize infrastructure and fall behind other countries including China, India, Brazil and other nations that have made the shift.  ...