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Largest flyover in Israel's history as 200 aircraft  strike 500 targets in Iran on February 28, 2026. Talks to get Iran to stop its nuclear program and antiballistic missile program fail to produce any results. US joins the strikes using aircraft carriers in the vicinity of Israel.

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WSJ Editorial Board says US targets should not be ones that hurt the people of Iran such as power plants.

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Naval blockade of Iran cutting off oil exports and securing the Hormuz for navigation April 12 2026. Speaking on Hannity TV show General Keane and South Carolina Senator Graham say the goal is to get the enriched uranium out of Iran. Senator Graham says the Pope is a good man but he has no idea about the danger posed by enriched uranium in Iran and the development of a "dirty bomb" and ballistic missiles. The US Navy is able to control the seas around the Gulf and the Red Sea to check all sea traffic in the area and has all the capabilities to do this.

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Deteriorating China Iran relations as the oil imports from Iran for China face US tariffs of 25% on China's exports to US, and US economic relations far more significant for the Chinese economy. China gets somwhere between 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels aday from Iran (80% of Iran's oil exports) into Shandong refiners at $10 below Brent crude prices. Another 400 mbd comes from Venezuela to China. This means $30 billion comes to Iran from oil sales to China at $59 a barrel, and $8 billion for Venezuela from oil sales to China. This has financed much of the bellicose policies towards the US in the western hemisphere and in the Gulf region. Iran's bellicose policies in the Middle East, its nuclear policy, are now seen by China as a distraction and  detract from good economic relations with the US. China $400 billion oil deal 25 year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 was signed under the Biden administration and China today faces a completely different situation in 2026. Even China's relations with Russia are not the same as the US builds better relations with Russia. A wind down of the Ukraine war would change the situation completely and ensure peace in Europe including Russia, as the US works with the EU to meet future challenges having learned from this experience in Europe (Ukraine dividing Europe) and in the Western hemisphere (drug/ migrant. trafficking). When historians write this chapter of the inflows of capital from advanced West to Arab countries and the Gulf region they will write about the huge contrast between China/India's efforts to modernize and these nations where much of that capital was wasted in wars and conflicts and in grandiose projects that made no material difference to the standard of living and quality of life of the vast number of ordinary people. Once the oil dividend is gone with fossil fuels replaced with renewable energy by 2035-2040 this opportunity to advance is lost for the Arab and Gulf region. ...

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 Iranian drone attacks and French British interception efforts - a report from the French armed forces staff about shortages in munitions. Drone attacks by Iran in first 2 weeks of Iran war are as follows- 590 on Qatar and Kuwait, 500 and 550 on Saudi and Israel, 1700 on UAE. A flood of low cost Shahed drones intended to overwhelm defenses is used by Iran. Drones can be launched from all parts of Iran including from the countryside in a country 3 times the size of France. The drones also cost little to produce in large numbers in Iran. Munitions cost and cost of aircraft usage, other costs of Navy, run to $12.7 billion for the US and US asks for another $200 billion from Congress. France uses 24 Rafale jets Britain 8 Typhoon jets in this report from French armed forces and French munitions supplies are an issue as the war progresses. France uses MICA missiles for interception made at a factory in Bourges central France, with limited supply.

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"All I want is freedom for the people,” DJT says said in a phone interview with the Washington Post at around 4 a.m.“I want a safe nation, and that’s what we’re going to have." The nuclear threat from Iran has been the subject of negotiations for years with no tangible results. This nuclear weapons development has led to sanctions and shortages in the economy of Iran with the situation deteriorating and protests in Iran.

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DJT and US diplomacy given a chance, patient waiting for Iran to make a unified proposal with split in Iran government, while the US naval blockade goes on- April 21 2026. About 2 million people lose their jobs in Iran as inflation exceeds 50% and economic activity, steel, car making and petrochemical industries are affected with major disruptions and supply chain issues.

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20 million barrels a day  of oil flow through Straits of Hormuz. 2.6 million barrels a day by pipelines to Oman. 70% of it going to Asia- China, India, Japan, South Korea. Iranian exports go through these Straits also making it difficult for Iran to generate oil revenue if the Straits are closed to shipping. Would Iran risk closing the Straits and what would it take to open the Straits? The answers are given in the adjoining article by Wald in The Atlantic Council publication. It says even if Iranian waters are closed in the Straits of Hormuz oil can still flow through the longer route in UAE waters. Wald says the bigger risk is for Suez and Red Sea shipping which is restricted by the Houthi rebels supported by Iran, with the US Navy operating in that area to keep shipping lanes open.

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South Pars Field and Qatar North Field, the largest natural gas fields in the world, are Explained in DW.com. The two fields are divided by a maritime line and form an island divided between Qatar and Iran. Israel attacked the South Pars FIeld and Iran retaliated with an attack on Qatar North Field on March 18, 2026. South Pars field natural gas supplies homes in Iran and is used for fertilizer inside Iran. It also supplies Turkey and Bahrain with natural gas. In the absence of this gas Turkey would have to source gas from Russia or buy it on the world markets. Qatar's gas goes to world markets.

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The foreign ministers of Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia meet in Riyadh March 22-24 to discuss ways to give more time before a US effort to open the Straits of Hormuz to shipping by a proposed attack on Iranian energy infrastructure as a last resort. Speaker of Iranian parliament and other officials do not support a move to end the war at this time, says the WSJ reporting. The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt do not support a Suez Canal type solution that gives Iran a fee for the shipping in the Straits. Other solutions are being looked at that are acceptable to all sides.

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US sending signals of 'very strong talks'  with Iran delaying attack for 5 days March 23 2026.

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Iran missile attack on Diego Garcia UK base in the Indian Ocean, March 22 2026. This is a ballistic missile attack 2500 miles or 4000 kilometers from Iran. One missed and one was intercepted by an American destroyer ship near Diego Garcia. 

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Israeli attack on South Pars Field and Iranian response with attack on Qatar North Field- this happens on March 18, 2026. About 10% of total global oil supplies are affected about 7 million barrels a day. Attacks on oil facilities and fields are a different order of magnitude compared to closure of Straits of Hormuz, as oil tankers can still deliver the oil when it is safe to cross the sea passage. Attacks on oil fields and facilities will take a long time to repair. The US president calls on Israel to stop such attacks. The Pars gas field supplies homes in Iran and is used for fertilizer production in Iran. It also supplies Turkey which would have to get alternative supplies from Russia or on the world market.Oil briefly hits $116 a barrel before settling at $96. The situation resembles the one in Ukraine when Ukraine grain production could not be sent from the Black Sea ports to Europe and Middle Eastern countries like Turkey, Egypt and Morocco, and fertilizer exports could not be sent to Asia. The Russian attacks on Ukraine ports led to global shortages of fertilizer and grain. ...

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Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China says DJT and XI have "set an example" through their efforts and communication and "put [China-US] relations back on the right track after ups and downs." This sets the stage for the US president to visit China on March 31 -April 2, even as the US and Israel are at war with Iran over its use of ballistic missile programs and development of nuclear weapons. The US president also says he has talked to president Putin of Russia recently on March 9, saying that Putin has offered his help.

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Germany imports hardly 6% of it's oil from the Middle East compared to 13% for the European Union. This makes it possible for Germany to take its own position on Iran independent of oil supply considerations.  More important for Germany is Iran's support for Russia in the Ukraine war, a sore point for Germany and the EU considering the enormous damage done by Iranian drones in Ukraine including civilian targets. Merz says" the threat posed by this regime stretches far beyond the region. It must be shut down."  A breakdown of German imports of oil shows mostly all from outside the Middle East, after the shift away from Russia Germany has made a decision to stay away from the volatile Middle East for supplies. (Germany had a deal with Qatar for LNG but the EU has already done a deal with the US for LNG and Germany has followed the EU with its own trade deal to import LNG from the US.) Norway, 2.5 million tons, United States, 12.4 million tons Libya, 10.4 million tons, Kazakhstan 10.3 million tons The UK, 8.7 million tons, Guyana, 4.2 million tons ...

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Iran War talks in Islamabad on Day 12 of US Naval Blockade of Iran April 25, 2026. Kushner and Witkoff go to Islamabad.

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What the US wanted in the initial hours- use of Diego Garcia base and RAF base in Haverford Gloucestershire. UK's Keir Starmer first denied use of the bases and till he could verify US attacks were within international law. When Iran responded with a a barrage of drones and ballistic missiles 840 drones and 340 ballistic missiles and attacked the British base RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, suddenly Starmer saw the opportunity to justify US use of British bases on defensive grounds. DJT called the British response "very disappointing." Starmer told parliament-  "To be clear, the use of British bases is limited to the agreed defensive purposes; we are not joining the US and Israeli offensive strikes. The lessons of history have taught us that it is important when we make decisions like this, that we establish there is a lawful basis for what the United Kingdom is doing. That is one of the lessons from Iraq, and that there's a viable thought-through plan with an objective that can be achieved or has a viable prospect of being achieved.That is the principle that I applied to the decisions that I made over the weekend. This government does not believe in regime change from the skies." The situation Starmer faces domestically is that voters for Reform UK and Conservatives support full use of the airbases. Voters who vote for Liberals, Greens and Labour do not support use of the British airbases. Local elections in which Labour is seen losing a large share of its 2024 vote to Greens and Liberals is one factor the premier had in mind, in addition to issues in the war in Iraq.  Another is the consideration that Britain has a large presence in the Gulf from the days of the Empire when they were British colonies.Already in 24 hours 100,000 Britons have registered for help in the Gulf region. Britishers run much of the tourism, airlines and other business in the Gulf region as the Gulf states are small in area, with small populations and a large population from South Asia for certified migrant labor, and British managers at the higher levels. When Iran attacked UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia with drones and ballistic missiles it was clear that Britain was also being attacked though the attack on the RAF base in Cyprus was cited. ...

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BBC's look at Andy Burnham, whom it calls "King of the North" having won 60% of the vote as Mayor of Greater Manchester for three successive terms. A brief look at Andy Burnham's life. His father was a BT enginee and his mother a GP receptionist both strong Labour party supporters. He studied for a Masters degree in English at Cambridge. BBC says he was inspired to join Labour at age 14 years after seeing a documentary "Boys from the Blackstuff,"' about life in the city of Liverpool for the disadvantaged. He is a soccer player and Everton soccer team fan, who played for Lancashire schoolboys cricket team. He starts out as ajournalist working for trade magazines, then as researcher for the MP for Duwich, later joining the Blair movement that returned Labour to power. Under Blair he was junior minister, then MP for Leigh in the Manchester area. He moved to Cabinet Minister under Gordon Brown as chief secretary to the Treasury and Health Secretary. With Conservatives in power he was Shadow Home Secretary under Jeremy Corbyn in the Opposition. He ran against Jeremy Corbyn and Ed Milliband for the leadership of the Labour Party before being elected as Mayor of Greater Manchester three times with 60% of the vote. As Mayor he put the bus and transport system back under government control and built the Bee Network, which is one of his success stories in Manchester. He is seen as the only Labour leader who enjoys confidence of the British public from the way he ran the large local government of Manchester. With UK Reform winning local elections he is seen as the leader who can bring confidence back to Labour, and to Britain as it navigates the post Brexit environment and strives for renewal of Britain, its economy and role in Europe. ...

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Iran's financial collapse cause- Shutting down of Ayandeh Bank with $5 billion in bad loans and printing of money to cover bad loans by Iran's central bank. A lending mechanism was started by the central bank to give loans to well connected private banks that serve a small sliver of the population without collateral. This money was wasted and loans turned into bad loans which the central bank covered by printing more money. The result inflation of over 40%. 

The protests reflect financial distress, and deep discontent among ordinary people.as the money has gone to a well connected elite. 

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US shifts to Naval Blockade strategy, says ceasefire on, no war powers authorization needed from Congress. Naval blockade started on April 13 on its 18th day on May 1. It means Iran's economy is affected by lack of oil revenues to finance the economic needs the longer the blockade goes on, with US goal to remove danger of nuclear materials inside Iran requiring ti to be shipped out to Russia or a third safe country. This is a goal that is supported by all nations that do not want to see nuclear weapons in a dangerously volatile region with 5 decades of wars by 2025.

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says of the talks with Iran in Feb 2026 - “I won’t speculate how far away they are, but they are certainly trying to achieve intercontinental ballistic missiles. And I would say that the Iranian insistence on not discussing ballistic missiles, it’s a big, big problem. And I’ll leave it at that.”

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US-Iran Ceasefire breaks down as US escorts ships through Hormuz clearing 6 Iranian fastboats.

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Peter Navarro who has advised the DJT administration on world trade says even when there is no war the perceived risk from the narrow straits at Hormuz and the threats posed by militant groups financed by Iran had led to a premium being baked into oil prices. Navarro says on the Iran Premium (perceived threat risk premium) thatis is about $15 in oil prices. That it reduces growth in global output by 0.4% or $10 trillion over 25 years or $4 trillion over 10 years. As this perceived risk comes down oil prices will come down even further - even into the $50-$60 per barrel range, says Navarro. He cites different economic studies that show even in normal times the ballistic missiles and militant threats posed add up to $15 premium in oil prices to reflect this risk. What this means is higher oil prices and lower growth across the world- in poorer countries and in the US and Europe as a result of this. The current war he says gives the opportunity to reduce or remove this premium paid for perceived risk. The loss in global output he cites is about $450 billion a year adding upto $4 trillion in a decade and over 25 years about $10 trillion. Confronting the threat is not just a matter of national security, it also means this drag on growth on poor and better off countries from Sri Lanka, Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan to UK, Spain, Germany, and Italy, countries that can be so much better off with much of that $10 trillion tax or burden on world economies removed. ...

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Iran Ceasefire breaks down as US escorts ships through Hormuz clearing Iranian fastboats. Iran sends missiles at oil hubs of UAE. Two US destroyers were closely followed by 2 merchant ships as they successfully transited through the straits on Monday morning. Iran sent 6 fastboats at the ships which were destroyed, cruise missiles and drones which had no effect. US Central Command says 100 Navy and Air Force planes drones, satellite imagery and more than 15,0000 military personnel are part of this Project Freedom. Trump says a South Korean ship was involved and maybe South Korea should be part of the effort to clear the waters. DJT says the Project Freedom is for the purpose of - “Meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance." WHich is to say that poor countries and middle income countries around the world are affected by the IRGC Iran actions that affect oil, fertilizer and other energy supplies. ...

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Europe behind the scenes support with its bases in Iran War, March 2026. French, British, Portuguese, and Greek bases used by American aircraft.