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In an effort to normalize trade relations Pakistan's government plans to move forward with a step by step approach that will end the restrictions on Indian imports by Jan 1, 2013. The first step is ending a system that allows a list of 2000 import items from India and replacing it with a list of 600 items from India that are banned, allowing the flow of all other goods. This negative list will be eliminated by the end of 2012 leaving in place restrictions on sensitive defense items and some staple goods. Ashfaque Khan, dean of Pakistan's National University of Sciences and Technology Business School advises the government on trade issues. The trade between India and Pakistan stands at $2.7 billion for the year ending March 2011. This is much smaller than the $60 billion in trade between India and China which is growing. The trade between India and Pakistan is likely to grow significantly in the next ten years as trade barriers are removed and normal trade is established.

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India's Foreign Minister told a conference that China's forward deployments at Galwan in violation of 1993 and 1996 agreements was an attempt to change the Line of Actual Control. China after years of peaceful development under previous administrations, during which China had gained from the trade relationship with the US and foreign investment from the US business community, sought  to put India at a disadvantage using its larger economy and technological assets obtained through American business assistance. This was done by making forward deployments right at the Indian border to change the Line of Actual Control in progressive steps. Jaishankar made it very clear. "It is hard work, very patient work, but we are very clear on one point, which is we will not allow any unilateral attempt by China to change the status quo or alter the LAC. I do not care how long it takes, how many rounds we do, how hard we have to negotiate- this is something we are very clear of." Going back to the period of independence with Nehru in 1947- China's occupation of Tibet was an occupation of a peaceful country that led to the situation that India faces today of a border stretching from east to west on the Himalayas that faces China. Faced with the partition and refugees from that partition India under Nehru was not in a position to respond effectively to that occupation. Does China gain anything from being at that border through the occupation of Tibet is a serious question? Why? Because it faces a Vedanta and Buddha driven culture and people with population of 1.8 billion stretching to the Indonesian islands that were and still are the fundamental source of  China's own Buddhist culture and tradition.  US business has allied with one country after another Japan, China and now India. The US has faced wars with Japan, and sometimes in a failed attempt to understand the aspirations of  Southern Asia allied with British ideas of the region which were based on the policies of British Empire to divide the region on religious and language, caste based barriers. US business also lacked a true perception of the importance of working class and families in the US as it sent factories and surrendered its own manufacturing to China. The world is now changing following the pandemic and new supply chains and manufacturing policies of the US are being structured. It is in this context where India's pace of economic growth and technological advancement will change its capabilities and its capacity to meet the aspirations of 1.8 billion people in Asia with a common tradition and culture. It is in this context that one can ask the question does China have anything to gain from the occupation of Tibet and being on the border with a country and cultural tradition of 1.8 billion people stretching across South and South east Asia?  ...

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Arun Jaitley is Finance Minister and minister for corporate affairs in the new Modi cabinet. He is a lawyer who practiced before the Supreme Court of India and has represented foreign companies. Under the Vajpayee administration (1999-2004), he was minister of commerce and headed the disinvestment ministry. Jaitley believes in removing bureaucratic hurdles for business and improving governance. He emphasized creating a climate of predictability for business as a priority, and said during the election campaign that the results would send a strong signal to the world business community and domestic investors. The new cabinet is much smaller and brings together related ministries under one minister to improve speed of decisionmaking, coordination and accountability. Piyush Goyal, is the minister in charge of the power and coal ministry. This ministry brings together power, coal and renewable energy under one minister. Goyal is one of the younger ministers with advanced education in American universities. He has a CPA and a law degree, and is a member of the Board at the State Bank of India and Bank of Baroda. Other ministers are Sushma Swaraj as foreign minister, and Rajnath Singh as Home Minister....

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In a first Vietjet Air will connect Hyderabad, India to Da Nang, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam by November 2022. Direct flights will also be set up from Ahmedabad and Bengaluru to Vietnam.

This will build the connectivity for business and tourism as the new supply chain is set up by the US and EU in Asia with Vietnam and India.

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The Hindu's Piyush Pandey describes the fire sale of assets that is planned as the Reserve Bank of India pushes forward with the effort to clean up the balance sheets of Indian banks. Indian banks have an estimated 5 lakh crore of bad loans. Separately Crisil ratings agency cited the bad loans in the banking system as a hurdle that must be cleared for India to make the necessary investments in infrastructure in the next five year period 2018-2022. The Hindu's own review shows a startling amount of debt in the ten largest corporate business groups in India-  500,000 crore of debt to the banks. Anil Ambani's group alone owes 121,000 crores to the banks, with some of the businesses not able to service the debt. Canadian pension funds, Nippon Life Insurance and other foreign companies are taking stakes in business as this process takes place. The Mukesh Amani Group alone has increased the debt load as a result of the 150,000 crore rupees spent on Reliance Jio. Other investments that have led to losses is the steel business of Tata Group in Britain, which is down to zero value, says the Hindu. This report gives details of the fire sale for the other leading companies in India. ...

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The renewable energy and coal projects of India's Gautam Adani are shown here in this report Emily Schmall and Hari Kumar in the NYT. The Financial Times looked into Mr. Adani's projects and financing and found that much of it comes from a scale of risk taking and business innovation, timely delivery that few businesses in India have an affinity for. As a result he has taken on a role of lead innovator for projects of scale in both coal and renewable solar energy for India.

 

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Deep in the jungles of Indonesian Borneo one finds Bayan Resources coal complex. In 2025 Indonesia is the world's largest coal producer. Bayan Resources was founded by Low Tuck Kwong a Indonesian businessman who started out with his father's construction business in Singapore and switched to start his own business in mining in Indonesia in 1972. Bayan is now one of the largest coal producers in Indonesia and ships the coal to India, Vietnam and Philippines which depend on coal for electricity and modernization.  Coal demand will actually increase instead of decrease from 8 billion metric tons in 2013 to 9 billion metric tons in 2027. India and Vietnam are taking on the role of manufacturing that once belonged to China in the supply chain. The combined population of India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines is about 2 billion people with a huge need for 100% electrification of rail and transport, and for homes and industry. India is accelerating it's renewable energy production, yet coal will be needed in the interim transition to renewable energy. Coal production is about 1 billion metric tons in 2024. About 20% of coal is imported from Indonesia and Australia. India depends on coal for 75% of electricity needs says Anil Kumar Jha former head of Coal India Limited. He predicts coal to increase to 1.3 million metric tons produced in India by 2031.   ...

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NYT reporters show China is continuing to crack down on what it sees as companies that break the law. This adds to risks of companies operating in China leading to companies not adding to investments in China and looking at options of manufacturing or doing business in other friendly locations such as India and Vietnam for manufacturing. New deals are also being done with South Korea, Japan instead of China as China's surveillance of business grows and risks increase of operating in China.

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The deteriorating business environment in China is shown in this report in the WSJ. An April 2022 survey by the EUropean Chamber of Commerce in China found 23% of companies were considering shifting current or planned investments in China to other parts of the world. This WSJ report says even before the latest covid lockdowns over one third of American companies told the American Chamber of Commerce they would reduce investment in the country due to the policy environment there. WSJ says there are serious question about the future growth of the Chinese domestic market and the stability of the overall policy environment for business. The distinct advantages of India and South East Asia are now becoming clear including growing youthful labor forces, and governments that as in India are part of the Free World democracies allied with America and the European Union says WSJ.

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The Rupee is moving close to 80 to the US dollar with increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. The IMF expects the Rupee to go past 94 to the dollar in 2029. India's Reserve Bank is interested in carefully managing the steady decline so that business decisions can be made with some measure of stability. The weaker rupee will help increase exports at a time when India's is raising its logistics capabilities and creating the capabilities on the ground that will give India a key role in the new supply chain the US and the EU are building in Asia.

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Competing oligopolies or Competition? American capitalism in reality is a mix of both. Government's role in American economy shifting from higher in the Great Depression to low in Globalization and now back to supporting business to compete with China/India/Germany's Subsidized Capitalism. This WSJ piece that take a circle around the bases for a home run is in reality not a true reflection of America's management of it's economy over the last 200 years since 1825. There is a high degree of individualism, yes because it is a land that is forever expanding on sparsely populated Indian territory in the west starting under Jefferson and Washington at the Ohio/Pennsylvania frontier. By 1900 there is the emergence of the great corporations and monopolies, oligopolies with TR's busting of monopolies by 1920, and much of that structure is still there in 2025, with some obsolescence for changing technology. Oligopolies in information technologies simply absorb the small companies, and government is itself run by powerful lobbying as in the pharma industry to the sheer and alarming detriment of all Americans. ...

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The Agnipath scheme for Indian Army, Navy and Air Force is explained here in The Indian Express. The scheme is for 45,000 to 50,000 people between about 18 and 21 years to be hired each year. These trainees will be kept for 4 years, and only 25% of those in training will be selected to continue for another 15 years. The recruits will receive between Rs 30,000 and 40,000 a month. 30% of this will be retained for benefits trainees will receive.  The idea behind it is to lower the average of soldiers in the armed services from 32 years to 26 years to reflect India's youthful population and to help those returning to the job market to find jobs in business or as entrepreneurs starting new business with government help. The experience gained in the armed services is seen as also becoming attractive to businesses that are hiring good disciplined employees. The circulation of people joining the services also makes the army a leaner force of about 1.3 million and keeps the cost of pensions at reasonable levels. With India's rapid growth in coming years the trainees leaving after 4 years will have better job opportunities and can contribute to the economic development of the country in many ways. Upon leaving the armed services the trainees will get about Rs. 1.2 million as a package to make a new start in the economy. If there was a death then Rs 1 crore would be given by the government. The government will offer skill certificates and bridge courses so that the quality of trainees remains high and this would provide a skilled workforce for the economy during a period of high growth. A modern armed services like that of India constantly being filled with next generation technology should be able to offer these new recruits the skills and training in advanced electronics, computers, and other technical fields with field training to supplement courses, and the motivation to excel, that would be valuable to many companies. This is the idea behind Agnipath. It is also a tested path as the US armed services also provides this kind of training and many people who have joined and left the US armed services have performed at high levels in American companies in technical and managerial positions. Another feature is "All India All Class" which will make it open to all caste, all region, all religion, and free up the armed services from the current situation of regiments having a caste and region bias. This is a constructive and well thought through aspect of the plan. ...

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Srinivasa Raghavan reviews 3 books in the Business Standard on Periyar, Kamaraj, and MGR. Brahmins are a caste in India that held sway under the British rule in Madras in the Madras Presidency and dominated the professions and local government. Madras presidency was named Tamilnadu after independence. Think of Brahmins like the Boston Brahmins as upper caste, and the Irish as another deprived caste the Vanniyars in Madras state.  Madras was a very caste conscious state Periyar led a movement of Self-Respect for the lower castes improving their social condition. Kamaraj was from the entrepreneurial Nader case and was part of Gandhiji's satyagraha in Tamilnadu in 1925, going on to lead the Indian National Congress Madras wing by 1940. Madras state was very poor in those days- with 80% of the population illiterate under British rule and with agriculture based extreme poverty. Kamaraj changed the face of Madras, adding schools and high schools, midday meals in schools, and set up industry with large public sector projects, brought dams and electricity to the state, between 1954 to 1963, 13 years of transformation, may be the biggest in India in the period 1950-1975. ...

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Trade between South Korea and India is growing rapidly and will have exceeded $30 billion by 2022. Samsung and Hyundai have expanded investments in India. India has strong cultural and Buddhist connections to South Korea. Cultural connections should be stronger than what they are considering the historical roots of Buddhism in India and Asian Buddhist regions such as Korea, Vietnam and China rediscovering their roots in Buddhism and the Ancient Path historical sites in India after the pandemic. This will happen now that India is like South Korea and Japan a rapidly modernizing country that has not lost its connections with Vedanta and Buddhism. South Korea has close ties to Japan. During the first phase of modernization it expanded its ties to Japan. During this phase of modernization both Japan and South Korea can increase exchanges of students and visits by tourists, and business exchanges between the countries, as there is great potential for this and the time has come to do this. ...

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The NYT covers the GAESA tourism enterprise of Cuba (that operates independent of the government of Cuba) that overinvested in Tourism at the expense of agriculture industry and infrastructure during the Obama administration, leading to collapse with Trump's 2014 embargo on Cuba. GAESA controls about 50% of Cuba's economy, run by military and people from Castro's family.  That left 121 hotels built in the boom years of tourism at 30 percent occupancy. The Iberostar high rise hotel is one of these hotels that rises over dilapidated housing in Havana, the Cuban capital. The investment in tourism by the GAESA enterprise that runs about 50% of the Cuban economy is 13 times what is spent on healthcare and education, says the NYT. The Castro family, Raul Castro family, runs this business venture that was started when the Soviet Union as sponsor of Cuba had collapsed by 1991. The NYT says this 'devolved' the ideas and promise of the revolution. "Devolved?" What kind of word to describe a complete loss of faith, and enormous failure with severe hardship for the Cuban people? It means the whole idea of communism or Marxist revolution has been proven false, even as it survives in Mexico and parts of Latin America. One can be against the Batista regime- similarly against corrupt regimes in Latin America or Asia- that ruled Cuba before the Castro Cuban revolution and still look for better choices and alternatives than what Castro came up with as an answer to Cuba's needs. Much of Latin America is suffering from the same problems of dictatorships and turning to Marxist alternatives - particularly the alternative put forward by Castro in Cuba- that has also destroyed the Venezuelan economy with Chavez's turn to Castro's Cuban revolutionary slogans and ideology. That came up with temporary solutions for the poorer sections of society, yet failed badly for all sections of society in the long term. How else can one explain one fourth of Venezuela's population and about the same of Cuba's leaving the country, some of those who left the critical human capital that would form the core of the human input to combine with capital and technology for advancing the economy. If Cuba were like the Dominican Republic or other parts of the Caribbean to depend on tourism for its national income then would it not be better to have friendly relations with the US, the main source of tourism revenue. The Obama administration was only holding up a failed idea by holding out a helping hand to tourism in Cuba knowing full well that a change to a Republican administration would simply lead to heavy investments in tourism at the neglect of infrastructure, public services and the economy, of health and education, to become large economic losses. This is what has happened.  As China and India have proven and are proving there are no magical ways to economic development- the same route that was traveled by the nations of Northern and Western Europe with scientific advances, technological advances, have to be taken, the same route that was traveled by the US in its industrial revolution and building of infrastructure, that same route has to be taken by all nations. It does not have to take a time period of centuries as in Europe. The US accomplished it faster with new technologies and vast human and natural resources over 100 years, Japan in 50 years, China in 30 years. India in 25 years ongoing.There is room for intelligent solutions to problems, for speed and tapping into new technologies, yet the same inputs of land, labour, capital and technology have to be put together for development. For states or regions, cities, within China and India, the same inputs, the same access to foreign investment and new technologies is the only route to rapid development. Long range plans are set in motion, decades of stable efficient, clean governance is put in place, and alliances are built with the nations of Europe and with the US. This road is traversed though hard work as Japan and China have done, and India today is thoroughly engaged in. ...

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Raghuram Rajan, former chief economist of the IMF, is appointed the chief economic advisor to Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh. He says his focus is on increasing foreign investment, including letting foreign banks operate in the country, reducing waste in food storage and distribution, and promoting new business so that growth does not depend largely on the large companies in the country.

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Studies show an increasing concentration in Indian capitalism, with a few entrenched firms or business houses dominating many industries in India since 2000.

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PM Modi closes the 100th episode with the words- "Charaiveti, charaiveti, charaiveti, chalte raho, chalte raho"- from the Vedanta and Buddhist period in India is about life's endless journey and to keep moving, to keep moving, a whole country and about a billion and a half people on the move. Ideas become popular movements and the radio talk show every month by prime minister Modi takes on new meaning for hundreds of millions of young people in India. Ideas about "Swachh Bharat" or Clean India Mission, about the environment, health, about technology and education to transform the country, about women becoming a part of the economy, about the dignity of workers, about starting small business that creates jobs, about renewable energy. 

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Angela Merkel left Germany dangerously dependent on Russia for energy supplies that may simply be shut off after maintenance on the Nordstream pipeline. She did even worse on China says this report in The Times that says that it leaves Germany on the hook for billions. There are $200 billion of German investments in China and German business concern is snowballing with new restrictions on operations in China and the deteriorating business sentiment. Worse the entire supply chain for solar energy and other renewable energy products to tackle climate change is dependent on Chinese components. Another failure to prepare for the future under different scenarios. And 46% of German business have supply lines that include components made in China. By grossly underestimating the risks of such dangerous dependence on Russia and on China, and ignoring warnings from the US, Merkel has hit Germany's new elected government of Scholz, Baerbock and Habeck with very serious problems that may take the next five to ten years to sort out. On energy and how to build a whole new supply chain in Asia with the US and its allies Japan, India and other countries. The ultimate irony was that Merkel felt that she was the leader of the free world, and a free world that excluded the US and India. Such is folly. And how she was presented as a good leader in the media is today hard to comprehend. ...

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Barkha Dut says it is unacceptable that the Modi government- elected after corruption scandals in the previous Congress party government- allow the cronyism and collusion between business and government that existed under the Congress party in India. The $1.8 billion fraud at state owned PNB bank has drawn attention to banking and bad loans in India. Dutt  cites an Indiaspend report that shows in 2016 and 2017 5200 "wilfull defaulters"  made up bad loans given by the state owned banks of $8.65 billion, larger than the government allocation for farmer and agricultural welfare. Agriculture and rural farmers still make up a large part of the Indian economy and national elections results can be determined by how well the farmers are doing. In the recent Gujarat elections in Modi's home state the lower farm support prices for cotton farmers in Saurashtra region of the state led to Modi's BJP party losing that region in the state, and barely winning the election in the state with a thin majority. As a result the farm support prices for an extended list of farm crops was increased to 1.5 times the cost to farmers in the new 2018 Modi government Budget. To maintain a  steady industry and business policy for industrialization and modernization any Indian government needs the support of farmers. Modi has raised the issue of bad loans in the state banking system as being generated under the previous Congress government in a speech to parliament. A cleanup of bad loans in the banking system is needed to generate growth and investment for the Indian economy. Good governance in the country's banking system and vigilance of regulators is needed along with this cleanup of bad loans, as public confidence is shaken. ...

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WSJ's reporters Meichtry, L, Pokharel, and Soon look at the extraordinary rise of Gautam Adani through his efforts to develop reclaimed land at Mundra port in the state of Gujarat. Adani who started with a small family owned plastics maker in Ahmedabad developed Mundra port around 2001 with the help of the Modi administration. Modi saw the electricity shortages in Gujarat as an opportunity to tackle India's chronic electricity shortages. Adani's early development of a deep water port at Mundra offered both Modi and Adani the opportunity to tackle the electricity shortages by bringing coal in large ships to Mundra in the way that China was already doing by 2005 in its own efforts at industrialization. So deeply immersed was India under the Congress Raj of licenses and closed economy that India's established business failed to see what China was doing to break into the ranks of industrialized nations. India's first prime minister Nehru had build a command economy where not much happened without government licenses and approval often riddled unwittingly with corruption. Modi needed someone outside the established companies operating under the Congress Raj command economy and with a vision of an India with abundant electricity to take the risks Chinese companies were taking to build an entirely new economy. By 2005 Guangzhou was importing coal with large ships from Indonesia and Australia. State owned companies moved slowly and would take years to develop the port capacity. Using China's example Modi pushed ahead with Adani on a rapid time delivery making Mundra a Special economic Zone and helping to connect Indian Railways to the port of Mundra for coal deliveries. Adani Enterprises built the thermal power plants near Mundra and build electricity transmission lines on a rapid mission mode giving Gujarat abundant electricity supplies and giving Gujarat state in northwestern India a great leap forward in the way China was already doing right in front of everyone's eyes by 2005 with world class ports built at Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzen, Hong Kong and logistics connections set with the help of Maersk.  Maersk is now doing the same for modern logistics in India in collaboration with the Modi administration.  Modi and the younger generation of aspirational youth in India see a New India that can break into the ranks of the largest industrialized nations with world class infrastructure in the way China has done, and use new technologies with innovation that will speed up the process in a way that the world has never seen. A quick look at Mundra Port in Wikipedia shows the timeline, It starts in 1998 when Adani Port Ltd was setup and Mundra port work began, 2002 the port integrated with Indian Railways, 2003 when it was made a Special Economic Zone by the Modi government in Gujarat, 2007 when IPO of 40 million shares at price band of around Rs 400 was done.  The Biden administration and the Trump administration support India's efforts to build a new modern economy with a rapid shift to renewable energy. As India is building the ports and logistics with the help of Maersk and other companies in the European Union, president Biden is working with prime minister Modi to build a new supply chain that removes the overconcentration of manufacturing and supply chain logistics in China. This means new ports with the latest technologies in India to handle shipment to the US and the EU. Jake Sullivan set out the goals for president Biden to accomplish this task in meetings with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval this week on iCERT. President Biden and Republicans, Germany and the EU, see India as a critical part of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, and the new supply chain. For the Adani Group the IPO pause offers an opportunity to do what Nirmala Sitharman has done in the Indian Budget this week- build a stable growth path ahead for the long term in line with India's Amrit Kal the next 25 years to centenary of freedom in 2047. Nirmala Sitharaman set a goal of rapid capital spending and investment increasing capital spending in 2023 by 33% in 2023 over 2022, yet maintaining a stable fiscal path by keeping the deficit below 6%. ...

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A potato farmer in the Himalyan foothills is able to buy his first refrigerator using his Jio smartphone, even though he lives in a remote part of  India with no paved roads or indoor plumbing. Jio is the company founded by Reliance Industries head Mukesh Ambani, that is changing the way India shops and how it accesses the internet. Jio brings 4G technology to India and dramatically brings down data prices. To do this Reliance used its past success in executing big projects. It was designed to be a network that reached 18,000 cities and towns, and 200,000 villages, some lacking electricity, requiring 200,000 cell towers and 150,000 miles of high tech fiber optic cable. The project is now essentially completed, according to the company. This may be the biggest one it has tackled. Starting in polyester yarn and textile business, and in oil refineries, the company sought to diversify into digital platforms to compete with the likes of Google and Netflix. Ambani sees Jio not as a telecom business but as a digital platform and plans to use it to sell advertising, sell content, and financial services, also selling high speed broadband services. Ambani's project was designed to give India the opportunity to leapfrog into 4G and high speed internet and do this along with expanding the access through lower prices in the market to reach millions of people in remote regions of India including rural areas. Low cost access to data helps level the playing field between the rich and the poor. There are about 390 million internet users in India, penetration of 28%. This is now changing rapidly as prices drop - the potato farmer who bought his first fridge did this on his phone, connecting online with Jio which built a tower nearby that beamed nearly unlimited 4G data for about $2.10 a month. Jio has now signed up 215 million subscribers with its low cost service. Bharti Airtel and Vodafone are larger competitors but it is Jio that has revolutionized the market in India, and which now enables companies like Amazon to use the new 4G services to build its retail online business.   ...

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India follows the U.S. and Britain in beginning the restructuring of the social media business to remove monopolistic behaviours, diversion of profits from print and online media content creators, and other behaviours that limit openness and place control in the hands of 3-4 companies.