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Japan's effort to improve defenses in the South China sea and around the Senkaku Islands.

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Taiwan adds new spending of $8.7 billion over 5 years to its military spending to fund acquisition of home developed precision missiles, naval ships, and weapons systems for existing warships. The military budget will grow by 4% to $15.1 billion in 2022. China's PLA air force flew 19 warplanes into Taiwan's air defense zone on Sunday, September 14.

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Six companies including Beiing Nanjiang Aerospace are among six nearspace aerospace companies connected with China's military that face restrictions on import of technology from the US. This is part of the American response to the Chinese spy balloons hovering over US airspace.

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China's Defense Minister Gen. Wei and Mr. Austin, US Defense Secretary are to meet on the sidelines of a conference in Singapore in 2022. Mr. Wei last met Defense Secretary Mark Esper in 2019 in Bagkok. No meetings have taken place since then. Gen. Wei is seen as an outspoken leader who told a conference in 2019 that the use of the military to stop the Tiananmen protests in Beijing in 1989 was the right step as this gave Chine three decades of peaceful development.

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New U.S. sanctions on two large Chinese companies, China National Offshore Oil Company, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, two of the largest companies in oil and chip industries, for ties to the military. The Trump administration is closing its term with sanctions on 35 of China's largest companies.

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China's military drills around Taiwan have an unintended effect of creating a shift in American and European sentiment on the overconcentration of US and EU investment in China. Business in Germany and in the US has operated for a long time in the Merkel and Bush-Obama-Trump administrations a if this overconcentration which hurt workers and communities in both the EU and the US did not matter as long as the interests of the individual companies was met. Mr. Biden's policy takes an entirely different approach to protect American workers, rebuild American manufacturing, rebuild infrastructure, and to build America's leadership in the world. The military drills only increase the awareness in America of the risks and dangers of the positions taken by previous administrations. Shifting sentiment to back president Biden's strong steps to rebuild America and American leadership.

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The Biden administration has set new rules for restricting leading edge chip manufacturing in China. The policy is intended to prevent military use of advanced chip technologies by China, a policy adopted by Xi Jinping in China. US and China have differences on Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific region. Companies making chips will have to decide if they will invest in the US or China. Any leading edge manufacturing in China of chips over $100,000 or increasing manufacturing capacity by 5% will lead to restrictions being placed on these manufacturers for working with the US. This sends a clear message about US policy for leading edge chip technologies that the US seeks to protect from misuse by other countries.

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Although the Russian economy has weathered the Ukraine war with 3.6% growth estimated by Rossstat and 3% by IMF in 2023, this comes with the economy dependent on heavy military spending. Military spending on defense budget increases to $119 billion in 2024, and increase of an astounding 90% from 2021. It has boosted wages in construction and aided certain industrial regions near Moscow and St Petersburg, and boosted manufacturing with more products made at home. The oil and gas revenues decreased by 23% in 2023 over 2022. After 2 years of war and particularly after contraction in 2022 the Russian economy is recovering and has surprised most forecasters. The problem with military industrial complex growth is that it leads to uneven growth with negect of some areas. In Russia the reduced access to western advanced technology is compensated by increase in technological capacity of countries such as China. A bigger problem is the loss of human resources during the war in Ukraine, and Russians who left the country seeking better lives in other countries.  ...

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Chris Buckley of the NYT looks at selected speeches of president Xi of China to military officers during the first 5 years 2012 to 2017 but fails to look at the China Xi Jinping faced in these years. It was a period of change in China when it was not clear which direction China would take after the messy experiment with free markets under a socialist state controlled system led by the CCP. That period from 1990 onwards led to hypergrowth in China that modernized China yet shifted American and European manufacturing to China alienating working class communities in the western countries. It hurt China also through widespread contamination of air and water, and widespread corruption and decline of the CCP. The Bo Xilai demagogic effort to subvert the system from inside happened by 2012 endangering the system itself from the inside while it responded to the pressures created by the experiment with free market from corruption, regional inequality, and other problems. ...

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Andrew Higgins tells the story of the China Power Investment Corporation's hydro electricity generation project on Burma's Irrawady river. The project is located in the northern part of Burma, in Myitsone, Kachin state. This was to be the first of seven hydroelectric dams on the Irrawady river. Initial opposition to the project by local people turned into a national opposition movement against the projects as it became clear that the huge project which would generate as much electricity as the Three Gorges dam in China, or seven times the Hoover dam in the U.S., would for the most part benefit China. Burma's economy was too small after decades of neglect to need this much electricity. The fears of ecological damage, uprooting the people living in the area, took on a new dimension as national opposition coalesced around the issue of Burmese sovereignty. The former general, President Thein Sein, who assumed the position in March 2011, had second thoughts. One former military officer, leading one of the opposition groups, expressed fears that Burma would become a colony that helped China meet its energy needs under the arrangement with China Power Investment Corporation. China was already working with regimes in Sudan and Angola to meet its energy needs. In September 2011, President Thein Sein halted work on the project. This happens just as the country's military is relaxing its hold on the media and allowing opposition leaders to express their views. The two developments may be connected as the military sees the need for getting public support to counter China's pressure to go along with the project. Years of external pressure failed to create an opening for democracy in Burma. This event appears to create the atmosphere for a genuine expression of Burmese feeling and desire for protecting its sovereignty, which would help it join the world community, with the military finding a common ground with public sentiment....

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Kristof of the NYT writes about DJT Action in Venezuela January 3, 2026.  Some of the least understood aspects of the US president's language on Venezuela- The president's reference to oil resources is not for the US to benefit from the oil reserves. It is about oil in the sense that the oil industry in Venezuela is in total disrepair and broken from years and decades of nationalization followed by lack of investment, lack of western technology.  Sanctions put a huge price on the Venezuelan economy with the brunt of it borne by ordinary people- the same people that a socialist like Hugo Chavez thought he could help with his erratic ideology. As China, and now India has learned the only way to get ahead in this world for nations is to invest, invest, invest with larger and larger pools of capital, technologies and labour. By alienating the US or EU there is a loss of technologies and of investment so that one is going to bat with only one strike and you are out, so that from Day 1, China under Mao, India under Nehru had lost the race, so did all the "socialist" regimes in the world. Conversely China under Deng and successors, and India under Modi are breaking development records. How does the US change this? First it removes the sanctions on the Venezuelan economy. Second it gives Chevron the green light for increased production. Oil facilities of the Venezuelan oil company will get foreign investment and US investment from American oil companies with returns for both and the state oil revenues invested under a government that is able to invest it free of corruption or it being funneled out of the country to support other regimes in Latin America. This will rebuild the country's health system, its broken infrastructure, restore its finances, and make it in a decade one of the advanced economies in Latin America. But only if- the gangs and other private militias, the other military elements from the two decades of utter mismanagement and drug trafficking are  removed. A new way will have to be devised that the US as to work out ad hoc meaning in the process of doing, invented that meets the conditions of getting this done and the process of reconstruction of Venezuela under the Monroe doctrine of keeping the entire western hemisphere free of such elements. The US achieved this with the help of Great Britain in 1823 when it was only 50 years since it's founding in 1776. The US has the resources in 2026 to make this happen in the interests of the people of the western hemisphere, in the quality of life of people in the western hemisphere. It does not seek any country's resources, it seeks the development of the countries in the western hemisphere in the great tradition of Jefferson, Monroe, Lincoln, FDR and JFK. ...

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China's role for World War II defeat of Imperialist Japan given prominence in 2025. China made huge sacrifices in fighting the Japanese just as Russia made huge sacrifices fighting the Nazis in Germany, yet US help was crucial in helping China stay in the war to the end in 1945. Roosevelt sent one of America's best soldiers personally selected by Gen. George Marshall, Joe Stilwell to China. The best documented writing about this period of the war and the role of Stilwell is in Barbara Tuchman's book- Stilwell and the American Experience in China. Stilwell starts his knowledge of China in the period of the First World War when he decides to take the position as military attache to the American consulate in China. Tuchman is the only writer who was welcomed by China's revolutionary leader Mao to write about China during the renewal of US relations. She gives the best account there is of how Stilwell in his different trips to China learned the language and lived with the ordinary people, embracing the conditions of China's backwardness and war torn countryside as Japan invaded. No American or European in history could be said to have done what Stilwell had done in restoring the morale and giving self respect to China at an extremely difficult time of poverty, backwardness and war. To read it is to realize how America and Americans fought all the colonial ideas of the British and the French and Dutch and embraced the dignity and culture of the Asian people. Gen. Joe Stilwell was the best of America- of whom it could be said in all races, especially in China, he defended justice and protected the weak. ...

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With Ukraine unwilling to give up the Donbass and Germany/France/UK wanting to prevent Russian favored deal adverse for Europe, US focus on Monroe Doctrine and western hemisphere, Ukraine Russia war is likely to drag on. This is what one sees in Merz, Zelensky, Rubio speeches at the Munich Security conference. In 2026 Germany+ (that includes France and the UK) does not see it in the interests of Europe to allow a Ukraine capitulation to Russian attacks and Germany has already allocated funds to rebuild its military to prevent this from affecting Germany+ interests in Europe. Even though the winter attacks on Ukraine grid and electricity infrastructure leaves Kviv and other cities in a dire situation it appears that without the 20 year security guarantee or something solid Ukraine is not willing to sign an agreement which it fears Russia could turn around and start the war again. Germany+ which is the position of the major parties in Germany 60-70 % of voters for the SDP, CDU, Greens and others except AfD with 20-30% of voters. (AfD may have reached a ceiling as CDU under Merz is tough on migrants). Which means about 70% of Germans will support a policy of joining UK and France in resisting Russian attacks. Russia may have lost so much in manpower may see the war as a vindication only if it can hold onto the Donbass which may make it harder to reach a deal. Zelensky says Ukrainians live there and is unwilling to leave the Donbas region. The net result is that Germany+ and Ukraine are not likely to concede ground, the US reluctant to commit to 20 year security condition for Ukraine as it focuses energy on the western hemisphere and the fentanyl, drug traffickers in Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia, and their support structures in Cuba, in addition to Iran and China's plan on Taiwan sees limits to what it can do beyond limiting oil's funding the Russian attacks. It is amisrepresentation to say that the US is the cause, as everything changed the moment China became an industrial power with the help of US business interests and returned to its own story of being subject to British and Japanese incursions in the 19th and 20th centuries, and sensing that it is an industrial power in its own right by 2020 and insisting on framing its own policy in the world. Europe always had its own narrative since 1600 long before the US became an industrial power under Teddy Roosevelt in 1904. In that narrative which now plays out again different European powers band together to prevent any dominant power in Europe (Russia in 2026) from gaining dominance. ...

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Admiral Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, says it is is good for the U.S. to be talking to China at top military levels. The way to make the U.S.-China relationship better is to keep talking, to keep up the dialogue. This is why Mullen invited China's Gen. Chen Bingde to the U.S. in May, and why Mullen visited China in July 2011. He says helathy skepicism can coexist with a healthy exchange of views. This relationship is too important to be allowed to managed through blind suspicion and mistrust, and Mullen says this was tried and didn't work. The dividends from such a policy are better understanding and willingness to live with differences, more transparency, and ability to address common challenges. Both Bengde and Mullen feel the future depends on the younger officers, who are ready for closer contact.

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China's civilian and profit oriented enterprises now work for the military and the People's Liberation Army. The spy balloon program has one individual behind it Beijing academic Wu Zhe, who is a member of the Communist party and has formed several private companies to develop balloons, with several patents on the technology, says this report in WSJ. Four of six companies blacklisted by the Commerce Department have ties to Wu Zhe says this report.

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In this interview with France24 Foreign Minister Joseph Wu of Taiwan says his country is a front line democracy fighting an authoritarian regime. He warned that after Hong Kong "Taiwan might be next." He also said the mood of the European Union was changing and perceptions had changed after observing the situation in Hong Kong, the escalation at the India-China border, and in the South China Sea. He sees the threat of military intervention against Taiwan as having "intensified."

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Prof. Mohammad Ayoob of Michigan State University looks at the tit for tat military responses of India and Pakistan and tries to interpret the mixed signals of the Pakistan military and civilian president Imran Khan. He says Imran Khan had the difficult task of being in line with the top generals of the Pakistan military and at the same time responding to international pressures to de-escalate the crisis. Imran Khan asked India not to take the confrontation further or Pakistan would have to retaliate, and at the same time emphasized de-escalation as the goal with pressure from Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and China. The nuclear doctrines of the two countries which differ from the manner in which the U.S. and Soviets operated during the Cold War, also make escalation dangerous. Prof. Mohammad points out that the military in Pakistan plays a different role in the state since it was created in 1947. With military control of nuclear weapons any danger of losing control of the state and its position in the state since 1947 could lead to reckless strategies, says Prof. Mohammad. Mr. Imran Khan had to speak in different terms to different audiences in a kind of double speak in this situation. Mr. Khan spoke in terms of development and the need for Pakistan to fund the needed infrastructure always at the back of the mind in the current situation at the outset of the crisis. Much of this was lost in the ensuing hours of the crisis. Yet this remains the dominant need in South Asia as Mr. Imran Khan faces the challenge of meeting his promises for development as much as Mr. Modi faces the challenges of development to catchup with Asian neighbors South Korea and China who have shown how this can be done. A longer memory does show China and South Korea falling behind in the fifties and sixties before making great progress in the last 3 decades by pursuing peaceful cooperation with earlier adversary Japan,  and in the case of China the U.S.  Anyone familiar with the role played by the U.S. in China's civil war, and the Japanese invasions of Korea and China, during four decades of conflict,  followed by the cooperation offered by Japan and the U.S. to first South Korea and then China can see that progress is possible and lays the foundation for development. A recent article in The Guardian reports that China now lays more concrete every 2 years than the U.S. did for the entire twentieth century. None of this would be possible had Chinese leaders in their wisdom and passion for development not pursued development first and foremost, setting aside historic wounds. ...

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What a change DJT's first 100 Days and actions on immigration and tariffs , Ukraine and Russia, have made in China's and World relations in Asia, and in Europe - all for the better, significantly better relations worldwide.  China has worked out a peace settlement in Ladakh frontier with India. It has come together in Tokyo with Japanese prime minister Ishiba and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi holding hands, and South Korea joining, all three nations vowing to remember history and work together. In Europe Russia is being brought back into the community of nations for big power cooperation with the US after 3 years of war in Ukraine. And Germany has removed its constitutional brake on spending that frees up $1 trillion in funding for infrastructure to replace much of its rail and other infrastructure built in 1900. One would not know this reading the NYT on democracy or the WSJ on tariffs or the Washington Post on assault on federal workforce, or the Atlantic, Politico, DW.com or FR24, Der Spiegel, nor Le Monde, much of the world media slanted on way or another. One does not hear about military exercises so often as the world realizes that so called large economies China, Germany, Japan and India all depend on American goodwill and willingness to give rather than take for most of the post war period since 1950. For the last 6 years in the latter half of the Trump administration and the 4 years of the Biden administration during the pandemic relations between China and the US deteriorated and China first retreated into its own then opened up a bit. The initial idea that it could manage the DJT trade actions evaporated as Biden continued the DJT first round of tariffs. Now Navarro, Lighhizer, and his deputy Jamieson are all back advising DJT for anew round of reciprocal tariffs and tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China for not stopping fentanyl flows.  In 2022 in eastern Ladakh China's PLA had a big standoff with Indian forces in eastern Ladakh at Galwan and Pangong Lake. The Quad was active with Australia India and the US in Indo Pacific and China conducted military exercises close to Taiwan.      ...

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Chinese views on the India war of 1962 are shown at the Beijing Military Museum in a display effort "One Hundred Questions on the China-India Border Self-Defense Counterattack."  China's PLA on its 95th anniversary looks at the 33 day war and calls it a "counterattack." It also says China withdrew because its goals were accomplished of getting back the territory it lost since August 1959 to India, that on the Indian side "the decision making was in the hands of civilian officials who did not understand the military at all," and called it "chaotic." It also brings up the international situation that Russia supported both China and India in the conflict and India had the US on its side. It says PLA withdrew because of the difficulty of supplying the military in the Arunachal region at a great distance from China particularly after the famine that resulted from the Great Leap Forward. Today there is a clear chain of command and joint work by the Indian Air force and the Army, infrastructure to support mountain operations being built at rapid speed, and building of modern defense manufacturing capabilities for the airforce and army as shown at the Defense Expo in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, this week.  One of the first aspects of the border that one sees in the region is how close it is to large population cities and towns in India and how remote it is from large population towns and cities in China. In this sense China after the experience with Russian conflict before 1900, later a large Japanese invasion in 1931and 1937 appears to have responded to its period of semi-colonialism with an aggressive policy of extending its frontiers to regions that were throughout history acting as large buffers between India and China- such being the case of Tibet which was occupied in the 1950's leading to the war with India and a border dispute that had never existed before in history. Other aspects today are that in 1962 the PLA had fought the war against the Japanese and the war agains the Americans in Korea all within a 20 year period. In 2022 China has focused for 50 years on modernizing its economy. The supply chain in the Ukraine war showed shortcomings in the Russian army, and the difficulties of supplying forces at great distances. There is also the question of morale when it is about  miles of icy terrain at heights over 10,000 feet, thousands of miles away from major population cities and towns in China- for reasons of Russian and Japanese semicolonialism behaviour not to be found in regions that had never seen large armies in history such as Tibet or Arunachal or the Himalayan border regions. The distances tell much of the story- the distance from Shanghai, Shenzen or Beijing, to Tibet is over 4000 kilometers and the border region with India additional thousands of kilometers over some of the most rugged terrain on earth with only remote mountain communities existing in the most difficult environments.       ...

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China sees the situation in Hong Kong spiralling out of control after two months of protests and leading to a loss of China's sovereignty in Hong Kong. The Chinese official in charge of Hong Kong Affairs in the State Council, Zhang Xiaoming, met with the Hong Kong government representatives in Shenzen and made it clear offering a dire assessment and the most severe since China resumed sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 from Britain. Zhang stated- "If the situation worsens further, and there is turmoil that the Hong Kong government is unable to control, the central government absolutely will not just watch without doing anything." He also stated that the central government had enough strength to end the unrest, that the Party center and military force if necessary is behind the Hong Kong government. Wang Zhmin, China's top official in Hong Kong gives a better view of how this is seen in the Party in Beijing. He even called it a "life and death war" comparing it to the "color revolutions" the democratic movements that unseated governments in Georgia, Ukraine and Serbia. China sees this differently than western countries. With its long struggle against colonial rule in the territory controlled by Western powers along China's coastal region, China's ruling party leaders have a very different perception of the situation than is shown in most western media, particularly during the two decades of China's reconciliation with Japan and the U.S. in its effort to catch up. In the rest of the world the perception is very different. The use of a military garrison or riot police from other parts of China would affect China's image carefully built up over two decades of a peaceful developing country working hard to catch up in living standards and technology. As the economy slows to 5-6% the damage would be to business confidence and investment, and to Hong Kong's status as a world financial center. This could also affect China's relations with the U.S., European Union and Britain. with criticism on action by China. Unlike negotiations with Japan by Mr. Lighthizer for president Reagan, when Japan enjoyed a trade surplus such as that of China today (where there were no such issues with Japan as the U.S. had offered security guarantees to Japan), negotiations with China on trade could be affected by issues such as status of Hong Kong. This could lead to a worsening of trade relations, indefinite duration of tariffs and lack of any settlement on trade, further slowing the Chinese economy and hardening positions. ...

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The India China border clashes in the Tawang area of Arunachal are covered in this discussion by experts in United States Institute of Peace. The Tawang area it says is unique because of connections with the Dalai Lama of Tibet and China has special concerns about this area that go back to its invasion of Tibet in the 1950's soon after the British left India and the civil war in China ended with Mao and Communist China in 1949 taking control with the defeat of the Japanese. That chaotic period and Indian unpreparedness along a border that stretches for as long as the US border with Mexico. The lack of Indian infrastructure and roads and military modernization from that period to the last decade is now being corrected on the Indian side in an accelerated effort. Global trade and the economic needs of China in relation to the US, and India's efforts to focus on modernization, common challenges of climate change and pandemics, are leading to a new dimension that is being recognized by all sides. This limits the extent of the clashes and the swift return to normalcy of sorts. ...

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The Kashmir Valley and the Kashmir region had a multiethnic community of Sikhs, Muslims and Hindus in the hundreds of years before 1947. It all disappeared after the cabinet meeting of Liaquat Ali Khan on 12th September 1947 when the plan to attack Kashmir using armed Pathan tribesmen and supporting military forces was approved. By the end of that year the surprise invasion had split Kashmir into two regions and led to a large scale dispersal of Sikhs, Hindus and other ethnic communities. This BBC report shows how this happened and how it changed a once peaceful region with a multiethnic society. Till the 15th century this region was Hindu and Buddhist with influences of Tibetan Buddhism and a center of creativity for Sanskrit culture and language. It changed with the Afghan and Persian invasions by 1580 and conversion to Islam of some of the Hindu population. By 1700 the Mughal empire decline and Afghan, Durrani dynasties ruled till about 1800 when the Sikhs under Ranjit Singh included Kashmir in the Sikh Empire based in Lahore, Punjab. This lasted under British patronage of the Dogra dynasty of Sikhs till 1947. In the 1901 Census of the British Indian Empire, the population of the princely state of Kashmir was 2,905,578. Of these 2,154,695 were Muslims, 689,073 Hindus, 25,828 Sikhs, and 35,047 Buddhists. The Muslim population was not homogenous and contained many tribes and the Gilgit Baltistan region was Shia Muslim, the Kashmir Valley Sunni Muslim and the mountainous regions had Pathans and many other tribes. This is why the region may have had Sikh and British rule for 150 years with even the Muslim communities existing with many different sub religions and living in amulti racial multi ethnic fabric that was upset by the invasion from the newly created state of Pakistan based in Islamabad using Pathan tribesmen and supporting military forces. What changed this was that after Kashmir was split in two by this invasion, China entered the northern border region of Kashmir called Aksai Chin and parts of Ladakh by building roads in 1956-57 and the occupation by China of this region including Tibet thousands of miles from Beijing in a remote region expansion by Communist China. ...

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Key points emerging from Xi's 20th Party Congress for the Chinese Communist Party are shown here in the Indian Express including its attitude to India. The Jiang Zemin and Youth League factions are shown to have lost influence and Xi has his people in the Political Bureau and the Central Military Commission. GDP growth is no longer the priority to be replaced with more balanced development and reducing the wide disparity in wealth that developed in China over 3 decades of hyper growth. State control over  development becomes the preferred model.

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Britain's prime minister Johnson has gained approval for 16 billion military buildup for naval and other buildup for the next 4 years. It was apparent for some time during the administrations from Blair through the financial crisis driven by banks under Cameron, that Britain had lost its resolve to have a strong military capability. This was evident in its handling of Hong Kong, from the transfer to its weak response to the situation in Hong Kong as participatory democracy failed in Hong Kong. During the period after the second world war Britain failed to bring participatory democracy in Hong Kong under its rule. Labour and Conservative administrations made no effort even as participatory democracy was brought to large parts of Asia and Africa through independence, following democratic elected legislatures in the period between two wars in India and Ceylon. No such effort was made in Hong Kong leading to questions about its own commitment to the principles when China introduced its own government in Hong Kong by changing legal structures.  Britain lacked the military capability and its partnership with France and the U.S. was also weaker because of other distractions from middle east conflicts and internal problems. This is now changing with the military capability buildup for the next 4 years. This is happening as France under Macron takes a new posture in its battle to defend the ideals of its Republic, and rebuild its manufacturing capabilities. ...