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US-China relations shift from adversarial to peaceful cooperation after the Busan meeting in South Korea in October 2025 between Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi. This is how the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC presented the meeting- a turning point in relations. In April 2026, 6 months later it appears that this is certainly the case as shown in the WSJ Analysis in the adjoining article. Both leaders have decided that they will avoid any actions that disrupt peaceful cooperation and maintain friendly relations in anticipation of the May 14-15 visit to Beijing of DJT which will be followed by a trip by Xi and Wang Yi, He Lifeng to the US. The spirit of cooperation is reflected in this statement- "China will host APEC 2026, and the U.S. the G20 summit next year. The two sides can support each other in making both summits productive to promote world economic growth and improve global economic governance. President Trump said that it is a great honor to meet President Xi. China is a great country. President Xi is a well respected great leader, and has been my good friend for many years. We have always got along well. The United States and China have always had a fantastic relationship, and it will be even better. We will make both China and the U.S. even better. China is the biggest partner of the U.S. Together, our two countries can get many great things done for the world and have many years of success. China will host APEC 2026, and the U.S. will host the G20 summit next year. We expect both to be successful." ...

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Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

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CPC Central Committee Proposal on Formulating the 15th FIve Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (4th Plenary Session 20th Central Committee October 23 2025). It gives the outline of main ideas in domestic and foreign policies that China adopts for the next 15th 5 year Plan to 2030. It shows how China wants to navigate the next 5 years in the world. It gives the first signs that China wants to do Socialist Modernization, Chinese style Modernization of its economic and social structures in this phase. The first impression from this and the 2026 National People's Congress is that China is seeking to work with Germany, with EU and with the US to modernize its economy, not as in the past, but now more sensitive to all the changes taking place in the world. The goals are comprehensive yet presented in modest manner ( no China Dream ambitiously worded goals that had ruffled feathers in the US) presenting China in a way that would win acceptance and integration into the world's leading powers.  ...

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Improvement in the managing of India's trade deficit with China. Merchandise exports from India to China increased from $11.93 billion in 2014-2015 to $21.6 billion in 2021-2022, an increase of 78% over the last 6 years. Imports from China from $60.41 billion in 2014-15 to $94.6 billion in 2021-2022. The trade deficit with China during 2021-2022 is at $73.31 billion compared to $44.03 billion in 2020-2021. Most of the goods imported from India were in equipment and intermediate parts to meet the needs of electronics, telecom and power sectors in India. 

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The US Federal Reserve Report on Economic Wellbeing of US Households 2024-May 2025 gives some insights into the well being of American households. It shows food insufficiency households the same in 2023-2025 at 7%. The situation for cost of living remains a concern in 2024 as well as 2025. Retirement savings have improved for many middle class Americans, as confirmed by reports from Fidelity and Vanguard. The people earning less than 25,000 are 19% and about the same in 2024 under Biden as under DJT in 2025. 39% make $100,000 or more and 26% make $50,000 -$100,000. Combining the 19% making less than $25,000 and the 16% making between $25,000 and $50,000 shows about one third of the population under $50,000 living paycheck to paycheck. It would appear that $2000 DJT rebate putting $160 billion out of $550 billion of tariff revenues for 2025-2026  in the hands of 79 million households that make less than $100,000 would go a long way to keep the situation stable with optimism and hope arising from the restructuring of world trade that would bring trillions of dollars of investment into the US from Europe and Asia. A this investment plus domestic investment should bring back jobs and higher incomes to US manufacturing in small towns across America. The rest of $550 billion tariff revenue of $390 billion would go to reducing the deficit which would improve prospects for the economy in 2027 and produce a more resilient economy in 2027-2028. As shown on this page the popular Democratic Governor of Michigan in her op-ed in Washington Post supports strategic tariffs, and supports using the revenue for a check to American workers of $2000 per worker or per worker household and offers to work with the opposite party to get a WIN-WIN for the American People.  In the whole process of trade tariffs it must be remembered when seeing the inconsistent cases of tariff use by this Republican administration that these were special reason situations not aberrations or whimsical. First, it should be borne in mind that behind the appearance of DJT making tariff decisions is a carefully thought out process that took ten years to form under Reagan era Trade Representative Lighthizer who negotiated with Japan, and his deputy Jamieson for 2016-2024, and the economic and capital markets experience of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The two cases of inconsistent application of tariffs relate to the 50% tariff on India and the reduction of tariffs on China agreement on rare earths, and the imposition of a large tarif on Japan and the EU. In the first instance with India it was intended to give Ukraine breathing room from Russian attacks as Germany steps up its military preparedness and assistance to Ukraine. With both countries it was about saving face important in Asian or any societies and it has achieved it's purpose. Reports show both Indian and Chinese refiners have quietly cut purchases of oil from Russia leading to Russian oil selling at about $20 discount to Brent crude oil. In the case of Japan the quick action to raise tariffs was intended not to get into long drawn negotiations and show serious intent- Japan is known for dragging out negotiations for years if not decades. The same is true for the European Union. With the Swiss it was about a certain disrespect of the US coming from attitudes that Swiss products were somehow superior. Not just in the long run, in 2026-2028 history will show that the effort done right - and it takes effort to get this right- to restructure world trade so that other nations are not siphoning off the benefits and leaving the US to lose its manufacturing and factories is the right one. And taken with courage and sincere desire to create a fair distribution of the benefits of world trade for too long distorted by egregious practices of competitors. It has nothing to do with 2 senators from the 1930's who were from places like the Mountain West in the US, having no concept of world trade, Smoot and Hawley, who under a irresponsible president Hoover got everything wrong. This is a carefully set out plan to evenly balance the benefits of world trade to all nations.   ...

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India and the race in Himalayas road buildup on both sides with China and India responding to each other's efforts on ground that is 11,000 to 14,000 feet high. In the latest buildup India in 2026-2028 is building the Zojila Tunnel in Ladakh to cut travel to 20 minutes across mountainous terrain for supplies to frontier outposts in some of the most forbidding terrain on earth. Much of this region of Ladakh and Kashmir is tens of thousands of miles from Shanghai and Beijing, Tibet is far far from China proper, yet the experience of the Sino-Japanese war in the 1930's and the attempted colonization of China by Japan is alive in the minds of the PRC's leaders, see Tibet as a buffer region. Who see India not as as the land of Gandhi and the Buddha Land that has remained that way since the year 1000, see instead a legacy regime of the British Empire of the 1800's that attempted partial colonization of China.

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In this video DW.com looks at China with its CO2 emissions making up 30% of the global total and addition of coal power capacity. Yet China is also the country with a huge effort to build solar energy and is at the forefront in electric cars. What does this mean and how does it affect the search for reaching a limit to the use of fossil fuels? DW.com's Christian Pricelius takes a look.

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Deterioration in China- Japan relations after prime minister Sanae Takichi of Japan says Japan will intervene if China launches an invasion of Taiwan. China discourages Chinese tourists from visiting Japan. Japan tells Japanese in China to be cautious of surroundings when going out in China.

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Olaf Scholz of Germany has to balance the need for continuing trade with China with the effort to diversify its supply chain and increase manufacturing in Germany as he visits China. Germany is entering a new phase in its trade relations in Asia, one very different from the Merkel era.

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The UN Biodiversity Conference will now be held in Montreal in December 2022 instead of being postponed to 2023 for its Kunming, China location. China has delayed large events including the Asian Games to be held in the country because of its zero Covid policy. China has faced repeated lockdowns in 2021 and 2022 even as the world was opening up after vaccination campaigns and milder symptoms for Omicron cases.

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Iran Proposal that asks $2 million per ship to be split with Oman for opening the Hormuz Straits- April 6 2026. China, Japan can pay this amount to get the 90% of the oil they need from Hormuz, which would go to reconstruction of war damage in Iran. India would shift some of its purchase of oil and gas to the US and so will Japan over 2027-2028. This would result in a shift away from the Persian Gulf dependence to renewable energy and to buying oil and gas from US+Venezuela as more reliable sources. European Union and Britain would also make this shift as shown in the adjoining article by Prof Geoffron of Universite Paris Dauphine in Le Monde. The proposal also requires US and Israel to commit to no future attack on Iran, and Israel to stop its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US and DJT call the new regime under a Speaker of the Iranian parliament, an elected president who had to respond to people sentiment in the election, and a grandson of Khomeini, one that is easier to talk with than the earlier regime. The problem remains nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles development that the US has as its sole objective which is what the war is about than Hormuz as the US and DJT say Hormuz is China and Japan's problem where for some strange reason these industrial powers import 90% of their oil from Hormuz and have done this after 40 years of disruptions, a mystery they can solve on their own. ...

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Both the EU and US see another wake up call from China's position of on again off again diplomacy using rare earth as a bargaining chip. US and China separately and in coordination work to develop policy and actions to secure access to rare earth and technologies that is independent of China. China sees it's action on rare earth diplomacy as robust diplomacy in response to DJT tariffs, yet this is getting the US to move quickly to develop its own rare earth access including working with Australia, and taking action to support US industry. The European Union is not far behind in doing the same. This and the action taken by the US to restructure world trade for a level playing field, and getting Asian partners to acknowledge their abuse of the international trading system for two decades and accept some level of temporary tariffs is changing world trade. The US can regain the position it has held for the better part of the period 1900-2000, overcoming periods that included the rise of Russia and Japan after 1945. ...

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A change in the tone of how the US sees China's military and nuclear weapons buildup in December 2025 from the US War Department as the US and China work to preserve a trade truce and better relations with planned US president DJT visit to Beijing in 2026. US has 3700 vs about China's 600 nuclear weapons growing to 1000 in coming years. US sees the Monroe Doctrine as its major foreign policy goal in 2026- US setting rules in the Western Hemisphere for Peace and Progress without the lawlessness of drug and people trafficking in Venezuela and Mexico of the last 2 decades across the Bush, Obama and Biden administrations. This is a major change in policy to ensure the safety and well being of American communities in 51 states of the Union, in addition to jobs and factory expansion across America by fighting unfair trade practices in the world economy.

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By taking action in Venezuela in a way that benefits the Venezuelan people (and similar action in the long run interests of the Iranian people to dedicate most of the resources for development and increase share of oil revenues without discounting and removing sanctions ill effects on economy and quality of life) major new changes can improve quality of life in the world.  Venezuelan production which was 3 million barrels a day has declined to 900,000 without US investment and technological upgrades. With US investment this can be increased to put additional oil supplies on the market lost in the war with Iran and smaller traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. Venezuelan crude is best suited to US refineries which frees up shale oil for export to meet needs of India and Europe. China which had hyper growth through massive oil consumption would reduce its growth rate and its impact on climate change as it adjusts to the loss of 3 million barrels a day it no longer gets from Iran. Slower growth rate in China is good for the climate as it is the hyper growth of China that put the most pressure on climate even as Europe and the US had cut  fossil fuels consumption over the last decade. China made 2 coal plants a week and 95% of all new global coal construction in 2023. India needs additional oil supplies as it increases its growth rate from a much lower point of development (and electricity poverty) than China. By simply settling for normal development compared to hyper development targets( China has reached a point of Oil Fairness Percentage where each country gets to use the same percentage of oil as its population is as a percentage of world population- the number being about 17% for China for both, with the number being 18% for India and it having a shortfall of 12% based on its oil consumption being only 6% of the world total). China can reduce oil and coal consumption reducing pressure on oil prices and absorbing most of the impact from the loss of Iranian oil. China and Russia + (old Soviet territory) Canada, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, make up about 40% of the world's territorial landmass, would be large beneficiaries with improved climatic conditions from burning less coal. They are now highly developed countries and do not need hyper growth which requires China to build 2 coal plants a week and consume excessive amounts of crude oil and coal based on artificially set targets that make no sense by destroying the climate when no child in China lacks electricity to read. Marathon Philipps Valero with over half a million barrels of refining capacity for heavy Venezuelan crude can now put this to use using the imports by US of lower priced (by $9 to Brent crude) Venezuelan crude oil. In a few months of 2025 US has imported 280,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude in February 2026 alone some of it going to the large Valero refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. American oil refiners make larger margins using the Venezuelan crude than they make on light crude from shale oil producers in the US. What this does is to increase the supply of crude and refined oil products on the market as the light crude get shipped overseas to India and Europe- including countries like Spain which took in 100,000 barrels a day of shale crude from US in February 2026. ...

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China surge in electricity generation to 3 times US- 3.3 terawatts to US 1.3 terawatts in 2025. A push for electricity advantage by China that has taken place over two decades.

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Both the Tories in Britain and the Democrats in the US were caught by surprise by the sudden surge after the pandemic of illegal migrations flows in 2023-2024 which dropped to all time lows in 2019-2021 with the covid lockdowns. Tories with factional infighting and Democrats falsely believing they were virtuous humane could not take effective decisive immediate action costing them the defeats in 2024. The size of the illegal migration problem to the UK was underestimated in 2023. Tory rhetoric alone failed to convince the British public. In the US Biden not confronting it head on also failed to reassure the American people as the US Border also meant destructive Mexico/China fentanyl flows. Even today the action proposed falls short and new US bipartisan legislation is needed to make it the law of the land, closing three decades of stealth in immigration policies. ONS now estimates that it missed 166,000 people. The real figure for the year ending June 2023 for net migration was 906,000 not 748,000 as previously estimated. In the year ending June 2024 this figure for net migration was 728,000. Labour party under Keir Starmer made setting up the new structures for tackling alarming rise in migration the top priority in 2024. That lesson was not learned in the US and the issue not confronted head on to win public confidence- the Biden support for Republican Senator Lankford's legislation on illegal migrants and the border came late in 2023 and the issue was left to fester for 2 years eroding public confidence. In the US the issue of illegal fentanyl flows at the US Border and from China makes the Border and China relations issues that required effective and immediate action overriding everything else. In the end Tories confusion and internal factions, other controversies, led to lack of vigilance and lack of effective action as net migration deceptively hit lows of 254,000, 111,000, and 254,000 in the pandemic years 2019, 2020, and 2021, only to surge tremendously to 634,000 and 906,00 in the years 2022 and 2023.  Labour's Starmer took action to make it No. 1 priority in the platform going into the 2024 election winning public confidence. A similar surge in migration happened in the US after a deceptive slowdown in the pandemic, compunded by Venezuela and central American states collapsing. ...

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A scandal in China over cooking oil transported in fuel trucks that is shown in DW.com

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Walter Mead of WSJ offers this view- expect more action from DJT in 2026 not less, than 2025. The president took the US Supreme Court's decision in stride, noting that it lets him do the same thing on tariffs- charge tariffs on countries doing unfair trade with the US- with other tools in trade legislation, just not IIEP rules. On the practical side every country wants to keep its trade agreement with the US said the president- Britain, Japan, South Korea, Germany, China, India. China and India have increased exports in 2025 even with tariffs rules that allow some exemptions. Large trading nations do not want the uncertainty that comes with renegotiating agreements arrived at with much difficulty with the US. This is not mentioned much in the media such as WSJ and NYT which instead  focus on the tariff revenue already collected of $130 billion and its use or refunding. What is relevant is that the purpose of splitting powers beteen the executive branch and the Supreme Court and Congress is preceded to a great extent by the public's ideas about what is fair, of rights of the US to fair trade, and preventing the deindustrialization of US and Europe. Which is why the Supreme Court has tried to tread warily on issue of illegal migrants by millions entering the country, and is trying to tread warily on issue of rebuilding American industry and infrastructure using tariffs to reduce concentration in China and act to restore a fair trading system for the US and the world. ...

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Saudi East West 750 mile Pipeline from east coast fields to west coast at Yanbu port- capacity 7 million barrels a day with average 4-5 million loading each day in April 2026. About half of this goes to India and China. It is critical supply point for the Saudis now that Straits Hormuz is restricted. The UAE has pipeline to Fujairah which it seeks to double capacity by 2027 from 1.8 million barrels a day to 3.6 million barrels a day. UAE has left the OPEC cartel that limits supplies and sets prices, which makes this critical for the US to ensure oil prices remain at levels that are moderate. UAE now favors lower oil prices while the Saudis objective is to keep prices high.

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Modi's BJP party wins in West Bengal, Assam and Pondicherry, with new TVK party in Tamilnadu. It is avcotry for good governance as the BJP and TVK promise good governance. The BJP has brought good governance since it won the national election in 2014 and 2018, 2022, 2026. And gradually won state elections in Delhi, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Bihar, Orissa last year. This enables the whole Indian economy to advance rapidly in industrialization, modernization, and Vikshit or Developed Bharat vision for 2047 (the 100th year of independence). In the years ahead India's economy is likely to close the gap with China to become the third largest economy in the world. In 1950 India's and China's economy were the same size. This situation is likely to happen in the next two decades. Yet this win today gets no media coverage in the WSJ, in Washington Post, The Guardian and only lower down in the page on the NYT without grasping the significance and BBC covers it only marginally. Only the German DW.com has non stop coverage. The established media is ignoring what is happening to 2 billion people, bigger than the story in the Gulf with 7% of the people in South Asia which is cluttering the pages of the established media, and coverage of the teapot refineries in China that get most of that oil on China's coastline. Ignoring the enormous enthusiasm and energy that has been unleashed across India in the last 12 months for a modernized India Vikshit Bharat 2047 built on good governance, infrastructure building and technological innovation, scientific advancement after 1000 years of waiting. ...

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Although the Russian economy has weathered the Ukraine war with 3.6% growth estimated by Rossstat and 3% by IMF in 2023, this comes with the economy dependent on heavy military spending. Military spending on defense budget increases to $119 billion in 2024, and increase of an astounding 90% from 2021. It has boosted wages in construction and aided certain industrial regions near Moscow and St Petersburg, and boosted manufacturing with more products made at home. The oil and gas revenues decreased by 23% in 2023 over 2022. After 2 years of war and particularly after contraction in 2022 the Russian economy is recovering and has surprised most forecasters. The problem with military industrial complex growth is that it leads to uneven growth with negect of some areas. In Russia the reduced access to western advanced technology is compensated by increase in technological capacity of countries such as China. A bigger problem is the loss of human resources during the war in Ukraine, and Russians who left the country seeking better lives in other countries.  ...

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US trade deficit of $46 billion with India and DJT call to buy oil and gas from the US, to shift away from purchases of $50 billion of oil from Russia, of 2 million barrels a day. India only imported $1 billion of oil from Russia in 2020 and this is a call from the US to India to stop financing Russia's increasing air attacks on Ukraine in August 2025. For India this oil came at $70 a barrel when prices were around $90-$100 a barrel in 2022-2024. In 2025 oil prices are at $60 a barrel, and even if prices increase to $70 a barrel India can make the shift. US and Germany, the EU, Britain which seek negotiated end to the war in Ukraine will continue to pressure India in 2025. Russia could shift some of the oil to other places but the huge demand from a country India's size will not then be seen as a factor in prolonging the war. India needs to think ahead for the next 20 years and its goal of modernization by 2047 like China has done in 2000-2020. And not get into a nationalistic mode that may not be in the best interests of the Indian people seeing that this may serve the interests of all nations including Russia to phase out this European war. ...