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With a low voter turnout estimated at 25% the United Russia Party which supports President Putin wins regional elections in Russia.

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Just before the general elections of Feb 24-25 in Italy, the centre left PD party of Luigi Bersani sees its 12 point lead over the coalition of Silvio Berlusconi go down to 6 points. Former EU commissioner and prime minister in 2012, Mario Monti, has 14 points. The maverick Five Star Movement of comedian Beppe Grillo has the support of younger voters looking for a break from the past in Italian politics with 15 points. Italy's election rules automatically gives the coalition with the largest number of votes a 55% majority in the lower house of parliament. In the Senate a similiar rule gives a majority on a regional basis. For the eurozone the best outcome is for a Bersani win. Bersani looks to the Monti coaliton, which has the support of Italy's business community, for credibility and backing. The Economist provides an insight into how Italy lost competitiveness and income per capita stagnated in Italy in the last two decades. The dynamism of the sixties and seventies is missing, Italy's infrastructure is old and needs to be modernized, the productivity growth is negligible, and application of new technologies for productivity in many sectors is lagging. Political mismanagement under Berlusconi and other administrations before him has led to an entrenched stagnation and Italy badly needs to get out of this. Italy and Portugal are the only two countries with a lower per capita real income in 2013 compared to 1999, when the euro was launched. Unit labor costs have risen, and productivity has declined in the last two decades leading to lost competitiveness. The inability to resort to devaluations, and the lagging application of technology in many sectors, has increased the lack of competitiveness, with the economy becoming dependent on higher public spending, higher public debt. The result is higher unemployment at 11% and youth unemployment at 36%, infrastructure that is old and badly needs modernizing. Foreign investment is small, and the cost of doing business higher, including electricity rates 50% higher than the European average, R&D spending low, all of which need to be reversed for Italy to grow. But there is hope. The Economist cites an OECD report that shows the Monti government's reforms in regulatory, labor-markets, product-markets, can generate 4 points of GDP growth in the next decade. An IMF report of Jan 2013 looks at proposed reforms in energy, transport, professional services, judicial system and public services and more labor-market improvements, with the larger impact when done in combination, could add 5.7% to GDP growth in 5 years, and 10.7% in 10 years. Adding changes to taxation and shifting public spending towards investment for growth increases the figure to 21.9%....

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This NYT report looks at the 20 counties within 5 battleground states in the midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, eastern state of Pennsylvania, southern state of North Carolina and western state of Arizona. It shows the percentage of votes gained by the Republican and Democratic parties in the last 3 presidential elections. A look at the trend and direction of vote percentages gained by each party in each of the 20 counties in different states may be a better indication of the final result than polls alone as both parties are pushing hard in the 2020 election down to the last day. The Republicans strong in the ground game and organized effort, and Democrats in television advertising outspending the Republicans. Because of the clearly delineated positions the Democrats and Republicans stand in sharp contrast to each other both in image and substance.  Because of the Electoral College and states assigned electoral votes based on size the U.S. system is not based on the total vote count in the country. Who wins each state by vote count and gets the assigned electoral college votes assigned to that state, an builds up more than 270 Electoral College votes wins the election for president of the USA.  In Michigan there is the impact of the resurgence of the auto industry, with president Trump pulling out of TPP agreement and renegotiating NAFTA in favor of the U.S. auto industry bringing back jobs from Mexico. This puts the union vote in the auto industry- with Ford, GM and Chrysler located in Michigan- favoring these auto friendly policies from the current administration. The resilience of the auto industry sales during coronavirus is part of the economic story in Michigan. The renegotiated NAFTA treaty also helped dairy farmers of Wisconsin increase sales to Canada. In Pennsylvania the coronavirus and economic impact has hit harder than in Michigan with the decline in oil prices and effect on fracking industry. Closure of coal plants is also having a negative impact on the state. Tariffs on Chinese steel by the administration are helping the steel industry. Offsetting these economic stories is perception of how the coronavirus pandemic has been tackled by the administration. Added to this is the suburban women's vote and the shift of out of state liberal voters to suburbs in North Carolina (Wake county), and in Arizona (Maricopa county and Tucson area). States not covered here but also relevant are Minnesota which could be a battleground state in the midwest and Iowa. Racial protests in Minneapolis add another dimension with controversies about the policing in cities such as Minneapolis and recently Philadelphia. The sharp contrasts in image as well as policy, the coronavirus pandemic and the handling of the pandemic as well as the way rallies are being conducted differently by both candidates, and the economic stories, present an election like no other since the 1960's. The contrast is as sharp as between Gen. Dwight Eisenhower of the wartime allied effort and Adlai Stevenson a liberal and humanist in the 1952 election. That election saw some of the highest turnouts since the second world war, and this is now happening today. That election also determined the direction of postwar growth and dominance of American industry, the setting up of the National Highway system and important changes that were later continued under the Kennedy administration. It also marked the beginning of the Cold War following the Korean War under the Truman administration, a situation that is emerging in a different way today with the free world and the tension from relations with China. ...

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Vladimir Putin presents his views on democracy in Russia, on prevalent corruption, and ways to introduce democratic processes through internet referendums on legislative initiatives, the election of governors and local officials. He says democracy cannot be built overnight, that sovereignty of the people of Russia is the true basis of democracy and this was achieved through the fight with the oligrachy and anarchy of the 1990's. Rights that Russians want to see democracy ensure are: right to work, free medical care and education for children. In addition with the development of civil society and the advance of the middle class in Russia democratic processes have to keep pace. But he doesn't see democratic processes working with what he calls " a circus of candidates making unrealistic promises" with "spin doctors and image makers controlling politicians." And he does not see modern democracy limited to casting votes, and calls for internet based democracy and referendum based democracy to be integrated into the overall development of institutions, particularly at municipal and regional levels. He calls for a change in the mindset of Russians away from corruption in public service, saying that as long as the mindset is there one set of thieves are unmasked only to be replaced by another set of thieves. And cites polls that show teenagers aspire to be public servants because of the easy money to be made in public service. To correct this he proposes salaries that are high enough and at the same time have absolute transparency, declaration of expenses and family purchases, residences, vacations etc. Other steps include separating executive power and property and separating executive power from the system of checks over it....

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The NYT's Thomas Erdbrink makes a road trip from Mashad in the west to Tehran, just before elections in 2017. He sees abandoned factories and other signs of the impact of sanctions particularly on small businesses. Iran's economy has not rebounded from the sanctions period in the way it was expected. Lower oil prices have had an impact. Signs of decay and the effect of sanctions on people's lives can be seen, including the isolation from the outside world. It reminds one of a road trip across Cuba following the lifting of sanctions recently.

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United Russia gets about 50% of the vote, with the Communist Party at 19%, Just Russia at 13%, and the Liberal Democrats at 12%, according to the Central Election Commission. President Medvedev says the results in Parliament will mean the formation of "coalition bloc agreements." He said "the result is real democracy."

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Russian president Medvedev offers his view of the protests in Russia, that Russia is entering a new stage in the development of its political system. Medvedev told his United Russia party: "We are entering a new stage in the development of our political system and we should not close our eyes to that. It has already begun... It began because the old model- which faithfully and truly served our state in recent years, and did'nt serve it badly, and which we all defended- it has exhausted itself." He wanted to see United Russia take a leading role in reform. He warned that "it is categorically inadmissible that the political system be delegitimized." And warned Russians that the consequences of this were disastrous after the last time this happened in 1917. He was also critical of the U.S. government for its criticism of the elections.

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This Journal editorial says Romney is cautious and conservative in his politics, and finds his ideas for a value added tax problematic. It sees the need for Ron Paul's supporters in a successful Republican campaign in 2012 and critical for governing in 2013, because of Paul's genuine desire for change to the status quo. Of Santorum the Journal says there is need to broaden the economic message beyond reducing taxes for manufacturing companies, and going beyond the moral fervor to show how he would revive the U.S. economy and jobs growth.

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As he assumes the presidency for the second time, Putin is under pressure from insiders in industry and others in government who have benefitted from the Putin regime to take a tougher stand against the democracy activists. At the same time progressive members of his government are urging him to let the democracy activists vent their anger at flawed elections.

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David Brooks on the change in Romney as he breaks away from tea party orthdoxy to be the man Brooks believes he truly is.

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NYT fails to see the importance of delivering on infrastructure building in scale, reshoring, wages and jobs for workers, and climate change action that president Biden is achieving to build a better America. NYT looks at the 2023 and the midterm elections and points out a well known fact that women (and men) in the suburbs care about legalized abortion rights for women, and this extends to states that vote Republican in the south. No attention is given to the importance of infrastructure building, increasing wages and jobs for working class and middle class Americans, bringing factories and investment back to the US, three issues that brought Mr. Trump into office in 2016 coming out of nowhere. Mr. Biden is old is the refrain. Yet it is president Biden who has delivered on infrastructure where Mr. Trump merely talked about it -Building America Better- as Biden pointed out in the State of the Union address in 2023. Biden has delivered in support for wage increases for workers, even joining the picket line at the UAW auto workers strike in Detroit. He was able to do this because he has spent more years in Congress than any other senator, and like Lyndon Johnson for the Great Society programs and desegregation in the 1960's was able to win support from moderate Republicans. Being older, having the wisdom and experience was and is indispensable in the American project started by Washington and sustained by Lincoln, who nurtured wisdom, experience, fully comprehending the people's problems, and mindfulness in the way Mr. Biden does. ...

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The Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow was prescient in predicting problems of declining support for Mr. Putin before the December 2011 parliamentary elections. Work with 32 focus groups by the Center in May 2012 shows a continuing erosion of support for Putin as efforts to open the political system have faded. The discontent focusses on the delivery of basic services such as healthcare, education, law enforcement, infrastructure.

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Romney and Santorum in a tie, with Romney winning by just 8 votes in Iowa's Republican caucuses. Romney got 23.6%, Santorum 23.5%, Ron Paul 21%, Gingrich 13% and Perry 10%. Romney received almost the same number of votes he won in 2008.

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Spain's Mariano Rajoy loses a no confidence motion in parliament and resigns as prime minister in May 2018. He is replaced by Pedro Sanchez of the opposition Socialist Party. It has only 84 seats in the 350 member parliament making his government short lived and paving the way for new elections. Rajoy came in after the 2009 financial crisis assuming the prime minister position in 2011. He has governed throughout the period of the economic crisis and high unemployment in Spain during the eurozone debt crisis, the collapse of the housing boom, the banking bailout and austerity programs in Spain. Economic growth resumed gradually since 2013.

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Elliott Abrams quotes former President George Bush from November 2003 when he asked the question: "Are the peoples of the Middle East somehow beyond the reach of liberty? Are millions of men and women and children condemned by history or culture to live in despotism? Are they alone never to know freedom and never even to have a choice in the matter?" Abrams, former deputy natonal security advisor for President Bush, says the autocratic regimes and dictators of the Middle East have offered a false choice to the US- its us or the Islamists. Roger Cohen also points this out in a recent article in the New York Times. For Tunisia he says this was never defensible. It is a largely secular nation with a literacy rate of 75% and per capita GDP of $9,500, and Ben Ali, the dictator of Tunisia, jailed moderates, human rights advocates, editors, anyone who represented hope and change. Abrams says Mubarak has done the same in Egypt. And he warns that if you make moderate politics impossible as Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia have done, then you make extremism more likely. Ruling by emergency decree for decades creates a real emergency, as has happened in Egypt. Bush made that speech at the 20th anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy, and he reminded Americans that "sixty years of Western nations excusing and accomodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe- because in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty." He admits that the Bush administration did not always conduct US diplomacy in this vein, but the President took the lead and the Obama administration's abandonment of that mindset is nothing short of a tragedy. Obama's policy of "engagement" actually endangers the US position as a supporter of liberty and freedom wherever it is stifled or muffled, because it turned a blind eye to the people themselves as it engaged with the dictatorial regimes in the Arab world and other countries. When the elections in Iran were stolen the Obama administration hesitated, waffled in its committment to liberty, fearing that it would affect nuclear negotiations. Obama did not -as of late Friday night Jan 28, 2011- call for free elections or clearly demand democracy. The law school analytical processes that Obama brings to the presidency and the demands of geopolitical diplomacy are impervious to the loud voices demanding freedom in countries denied liberty. Obama has forgotten the very same voices he passionately heard when he wrote in his first book that in the words "we hold these truths to be self-evident" he could hear the spirit of Douglas and Delaney, as well as Jefferson and Lincoln, the struggles of Martin and Malcolm and unheralded marchers to bring the words to life. He could hear the words of interned Japanese families, the voices of Russian Jews in lower East side sweatshops, of dust bowl farmers during the depression, all these voices clamoring for recognition and asking the question about what is community and how it can be reconciled with freedom. This failure to recognize these voices clamoring for freedom and economic opportunity is all the more striking because it was vision and a bold sense of purpose that energized the Obama campaign and both the vision and the bold sense have eluded the administration. Abrams calls for a clear unequivocal committment by the US government in favor of freedom and peaceful efforts to achieve it in the Middle East, because he says that as the demonstrators are telling the world outside supporting freedom is the best policy of all. ...

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Bill Keller of the New York Times, reflects on his experience in Moscow during the fall of communism, and the Russian youth then and their children in the protest marches in Moscow today. He sees a new generation with different expectations, not limited by the past in what they think is possible, should be and is normal.

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What is the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and what does it mean for the US in the current protests? The Muslim Brotherhood was started in Egypt in 1928, in the colonial days, by an imam and schoolteacher named Hassan al-Banna. The intent was to act as a grassroots organization to promote the reform of Egyptian society through a greater adherence to Islam, by preaching and social services. Scott Shane talks with Reidel of the Brookings Institution and Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Quatar Center about the Brotherhood and Israel. Reidel was the Egypt desk officer at the CIA when Mubarak came to power in 1981, and is an experienced observer of the Muslim world at Brookings. Reidel says if we want democracy in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is going to be a big part of this, and we should be engaging and talking to them now. Hamid responds to a question about terrorism by pointing out that the Al Quaeda hates the Brotherhood and the Brotherhood hates Al Quaeda, that for counterterrorism engaging with the Brotherhood would be helpful to the US. On Israel, Hamid says years of accomodation to the real world has brought a knowledge that the Brotherhood has to live in the real world and the geopolitics of the Middle East. Carrie Wickham, a political scientist at Emory University, is author of "Mobilizing Islam," a 2002 book on Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood. Carrie says it was analogous to evangelical Christians and their goal of sharing the word of God, but Banna also referred to Jihad as a struggle against colonialism and Zionism. Some leaders such as Sayyid Qutb, who was imprisoned by the Egyptian government and executed in 1966, advocated violent jihad, but after the 1970's the Brotherhoods formally renounced violence as a means of achieving power. In 1984 the Brotherhood reached another point in its evolution when it competed in parliamentary elections. And estimates of its actual support begin at about 20% of the electorate. Another development is the relative youthfulness of the April 6th and other movements in Egypt, where two thirds of the people are under 30 years age. The Muslim Brotherhood leaders are much older and hesitated to join the popular movement in its early stages. On the question of the Brotherhood's future evolution and winning a large role in a future government, Carrie says that a system of checks and balances has to be established to ensure that the Brotherhood operates as a democratic party committed to the democratic process. The Wall Street Journal in an editorial on February 4, 2011, emphasizes the need for institutional checks and balances. Carrie says rewriting the constitution and electoral process to ensure that this happens and no one party can take abslute control is crucial. ...

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The unemployment rate in Germany declined from 6.9% in November to 6.8% in December 2011. The average number of unemployed workers in Germany averaged less than three million for 2011, the lowest level since 1991. Changes in the German labor markets with the Hartz reforms under the previous Social Democratic government to introduce more flexibility and increase incentives to look for work have helped reduce unemployment. The German "Kurzarbeit" program of retaining workers in a downturn has helped reduced unemployment. Other changes include the expansion of the low wage sector.