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U.S. Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, has balanced the rhetoric of president Trump on trade in the NAFTA debate by saying the U.S. is looking for win-win solutions in trade relations with Mexico. At the WSJ CFO network Ross says the trade regime from the post war years is now an anachronism and does not work well especially for the U.S. Many experts agree that the trade framework from that period is problematic. It does not take into account, for instance say experts, the situation where a command economy such as China could help manufacturing industries with state policies, including currency policies. The rapid growth in China was different from the rapid growth in an earlier period of Japan, in terms of its impact say experts. The U.S was the dominant economy during the sixties, and the growth in Japan was not at the accelerated pace and of the magnitude that happened in China. As a result the impact on  some communities in the U.S. was much more intense in the last two decades, as documented by prominent trade studies, leading to the sense that trade did not work for these communities. ...

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Putin's Russia year end QA sessions- "Direct Line" Marathon of 3 million questions. Two from the BBC. Answering the BBC Putin said "if you don't cheat us like you cheated us with Nato's eastward expansion", there would be no more war activity from Russia. Putin believes NATO and European leaders had promised no expansion to Gorbachev before the Soviet Union collapsed. Archives from 1950 show that NATO was formed as Soviets expanded after World War II. At the time Truman took up defense of Turkey and Greece from Soviet expansion. As Eastern Europe became part of the Soviet sphere the situation went on from 1950 to 1990 of 40 years with regional wars in Korea, Vietnam. The Russian leaders including Putin who set Russia on the path to economic recovery had a deep sense of loss of respect as Russia was treated as another European country by Netherlands, Britain and France, Germany former colonial powers that had difficult relations with Russia. It is this deep sense of loss of respect that these leaders felt after the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia suffered economic and political decline from 1990 to 2000 which was reversed by decades of economic growth. This was a period of economic growth in China. As China asserted itself in Hong Kong, Russia pushed back in Crimea and Ukraine regions that had long ties with Russia of language and culture. Had western leaders disbanded NATO and formed a new alliance with new goals with a vision for peaceful coexistence with Russia in the east the situation could have turned to be different. In 2025 the European powers Germany, France and Britain are not willing to see Russia gain points from the outright invasion of Ukraine presenting new obstacles to a peaceful settlement. Ukrainian sentiment is also a factor as giving parts of Donetsk would be unpopular.  ...

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Russian president Putin visit to China covered by NHK's Analysis. This is the first visit after being reelected for Putin. China's president visited European Union countries and Serbia, Hungary recently. China seeks to keep its relations with the EU and stabilize its economic relations with the US because of its weak economy. China benefits with supply of oil at better prices in its trade with Russia that has reached $240 billion, at a time it's economy faces a large debt burden and a collapsing real estate industry. It needs markets in the EU for surging exports of electric vehicles. Russia is also probably reassessing the situation in Ukraine to position itself for an eventual settlement, as China clearly has no interest in the war in Ukraine and seeks to limit any negative fallout from the conflict in its trade and economic relations with EU and US.

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Biden efforts to reduce the level of escalation in relations with China include a visit by Secretary of State Blinken to Beijing in June 2023. The US says it seeks "to responsibly manage relations with China." The visit of Blinken to China was planned for February 2023 but postponed after the shooting down of a Chinese balloon craft in US airspace. China's support of Russia in the war with Ukraine has further strained relations. A similar effort is under way to reduce tensions with Iran by approving 2.5 billion euros payment by Iraq for Iranian oil deliveries. China sees Biden's efforts for stronger competition with China as affecting its economic interests. It seeks economic ties in the face of a slowing economy preserving its advantages in manufacturing developed over 2 decades. The Biden administration seeks with the EU a new supply chain that corrects the errors of overconcentration of manufacturing in China. This is what China means when it refers to the Biden administration stoking "competition" with China, as affecting China's sovereignty and national interests.  ...

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China's manufacturing sector contracts in June with the PMI index dropping below 50 - to 49.0.  Exports were also coming in lower. Experts say the increase in interest rates by the US is reducing imports of Chinese goods into the US. This comes as local governments are strained in their finances by $900 billion, and a budding revolt is taking place from property buyers with developers in financial trouble, as reported in the WSJ. Psychological hurdles now loom in the loss of confidence in the public in the property sector, loss of confidence of foreign investors with many constraints in operating, mental health issues for the population in many cities with the covid lockdowns.   The growth has slowed to 0.4% and there is now a realization dawning that there was overdependence both on property sector and foreign investment that set up new factories offshored from the US and Europe that alienated the public in these countries. Unlike wih the situation of Japan in the sixties and seventies for modernizing its economy growth of the scale China was pushed into by misguided and self interested  business interests in the US including its investment banks and local government officials in China without restraint by the central government in Beijing, ultimately led to trade friction and permanent damage to US China friendly relations. Communities in the US and the EU simply could not cope with the hyper growth from hyper shift of factories from the home countries to China that pushed this hyper growth. The property sector played the same role in the domestic front with too big a burden carried by it resulting in hyper growth. This did not have to happen. It happened because of a lack of understanding that this would have consequences in the longer run which is now showing up. ...

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This Economist article looks at India-China relations and the Wuhan Summit between prime minister Modi and president Xi Jinping. It sees India's reluctance to follow a containment strategy in an historical light from the period in which India followed a non-alignment policy in the early post independence period under prime minister Nehru. During the period of the Eisenhower administration with Secretary of State John Foster Dulles India adhered to a strict nonalignment policy avoiding choosing sides in the Cold War. As a result U.S. policy tilted towards Pakistan during the Eisenhower administration. A balance was restored under president Kennedy, with Adlai Stevenson a close friend of India.  The short Sino-Indian war of 1962 led to a situation in which the U.S. backed India and improvement of relations. A semblance of non-alignment in foreign relations continued under Nehru's daughter Indira Gandhi. By 1990 with the opening of the Indian economy to foreign investment, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the integration of China into the global economy, a new period of good bilateral relations with the U.S. and Europe was maintained. In 2017 the potential for a conflict in Doklam, Bhutan revived fears from 1962 in India. In 2018 After the U.S. administration of Donald Trump and Trade Representative Lighthizer imposed trade tariffs on China and restrictions on export of advanced technologies China pursued a policy of conciliatory relations with India. China's relations also improved with Japan and South Korea as the U.S. policy was unanticipated and seen as a significant change that would seriously affect China's economy. India's response was to pursue a policy of good relations with China and the U.S., even as the economies of the U.S. and India were drawn closer in India's pursuit of modernization.  ...

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With the strong positions taken by Clinton and Trump on China in the 2016 election campaign, U.S. relations with China enter a new phase. The strident tone in the campaign on China on trade deficit, women's issues, human rights, comes with the issues relating to China's role in the South China Sea and cyber espionage already in the background.

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At the G-7 meetings in Alberta, Canada DJT said the 2014 exclusion of Russian president Vladimir Putin, from the G8 after Moscow's unilateral annexation of Crimea, was a serious mistake leading to the war in Ukraine. "He [Putin] was insulted (...) Barack Obama and a person named [Justin] Trudeau didn't want to have Russia in. And I would say that was a mistake because you wouldn’t have a war right now" in Ukraine, Trump said in a discussion with journalists on the sidelines of the G-7 meeting with the Canadian PM Carney. This is a significant observation by DJT who understood better than Bush and Obama, Trudeau, what has preserved the peace in the world and the importance of US-Russia relations even after the end of the Cold War. This is true for DJT interaction with China also because DJT also maintains that despite China's assertion of rights in Hong Kong, despite the outsourcing of industry to China and Make In America, US-China relations are important for peace in the world. ...

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There may be psychological hurdles in China's growth with the effects on mental health from lockdowns in major cities, the revolt in the property sector with home buyers losing confidence in developers, the loss of confidence of foreign investors from US and EU. The dependence on the property sector to carry so large a burden of growth for the last 2 decades in China may now look like an error. The dependence on foreign investment may also be an error as the loss of confidence could mean some withdrawal and a lack of sustained investment.  It could even be said that restraints on both sectors property and foreign investors could have created alternative paths to growth, and reduced the shift of factories from the US and Europe to China that have now caused trade friction and and a reverse shift of investment back to home countries of US and EU. Trade friction has it appears backfired in a way that extends to the overall relationship which could have been prevented by preventing the hyper growth that happened. Greg Ip of the WSJ has argued that compared to Japan's growth in the sixties and seventies from a country of 100 million the hyper growth for a country of 1 billion for 2 decades created a massive impact on communities in US and EU that were dependent on factories that were lost to China. This has alienated large sectors of the public in the US and EU which could have been prevented by restraints on hyper growth in China. Ip says the growth was too large and too fast for the US to cope. It may have permanently damaged the relations between the two countries showing that trade and globalization had unintended effects when left to business and governments staying away from keeping an eye on how it was happening. ...

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Gen. Chen Bingde, People's Liberation Army chief of general staff, leads a military delegation from China to the U.S. He made a speech at National Defense University in Washington D.C. in May 2011. In that speech he pointed out that China's military capabilities remain far behind the U.S. capabilities, which he described as "a gaping gap." He described China's military modernization as having "unfortunately aroused unfounded suspicion and exaggeration of China's defense and military capabilities." With the overstatement of the threat posed by China only "distorting China's strategic intention, tarnishing its international image, and polluting the political environment for Sino-U.S. military relations." In other remarks he said China "does not want to use our money to buy equipment or advanced weapons to challenge the United States." The meeting between Admiral Mullen and Gen. Bingde was the first in seven years between military chiefs of the two countries.

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Zeit Online shows in this article the continued efforts of the Russian government of president Putin to discredit Chancellor Merkel, following efforts to do this for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.  During the Ukraine crisis and the settlement accords of 2014 Germany was seen as a partner by Russia, following sanctions, and renewal of these sanctions Russia no longer sees Germany as a partner. This report shows Russian efforts to discredit chancellor Merkel and the use of RT German channel, WikiLeaks reports of Chancellor Merkel and the TTIP agreement, for the same purpose. The refugee crisis following what is happening in Syria with Russian involvement, terrorism, financial crisis aftermath from 2008, are being used  says Zeit Online to support a movement for "order" as the state ideology now put forward from the Russian government. This could be an early indicator for the 2017 German federal elections, says Zeit Online. Merkel has said that she supports continuation of western sanctions on Russia. It is hard to see what Russia has gained in improving its economy and the standard of living of the people from this type of political action. Putin was able to achieve economic goals during 2005-2010 using good Germany- Russian relations as shown in LyrArc. This was the earlier period of Putin's terms in office, with a broad group of advisors, including finance minister Kudrin, who set forward a prudent economic course for Russia including foreign investment. The world and Russia are poorer from the departure from this earlier set of policies which would have enhanced Russia's economic growth. Kudrin was fired in September 2011, and the economic course has gradually drifted away from what is most prudent for the Russian economy and growth, and for the global economy. Nationalism was part of an earlier period before 1950, that led to frequent wars and economic catastrophes. A new course has been set since then, especially by American presidents Truman and Eisenhower, and people in India, China, the developing world, in Europe and in the U.S., would see little to gain from the politics of that earlier period in world relations.  ...

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Xi tells Senate majority leader Schumer on a visit to Beijing that China has every reason to want stable relations with the US. Xi meets Biden at a November Summit meeting in the US.

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About 12 million Chinese viewers on Weibo look at new VP pick Tim Walz hoping for better relations with the US, reports BBC. Walz was teaching English and American history at Foshan No. 1 High School as part of a Harvard University volunteer program. Walz says it is one of the best things he has ever done, and gives him a unique insight into China and the Chinese people. Tim Walz was fresh out of college when he joined the Harvard volunteer program to teach in China in 1989. One Weibo user reflected the sentiment on Weibo- Walz's "unique background gives him a real perspective on China", and he could "promote cultural exchanges between China and the United States at a time when... relations are extremely difficult". China was different back then somewhat where India was in 2014, a largely agricultural economy beginning its transformation into an industrialized nation like the US, Germany or Britain. Walz told a local newspaper inthe US when he returned-  there are "no limits" on what the Chinese could accomplish "if they had proper leadership". "They are such kind, generous, capable people," Walz said. Walz encouraged cultural contacts and educational trips after he returned. With his knowledge of China it could improve relations with Chinese people that were affected by the pandemic. The pandemic reduced educational and cultural contacts. ...

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Sanae Takaichi press conference with DJT at White House March 19 2026- there is no mention of Japanese help with clearing Straits of Hormuz. US Japan relations after the meeting of Takaichi and DJT at the White House appear to be in good shape. Japan will invest $73 billion in US investment projects in 2026 as part of the $550 billion commitment made at the time of the US Japan trade deal in 2025 under the previous LDP prime minister. Takaichi is coming with strong support in Japan after winning a landslide victory in the general election. Japan's main concern is the belligerent North Korea and China's posture in Asia as it relates to Taiwan. Agreements were reached on critical issues- to develop alternative supplies of critical minerals, to rebuild the shipbuilding industry which US and Japan had given up after dominating it for most of the 20th century. This is critical to ensure open navigation on the oceans of the world. Agreements on high tech and AI, and agreement to purchase Alaskan oil to cut Japan's 90% dependence on volatile Middle East supplies. Japan has managed Middle East supply by keeping over 254 days of inventory but this looks to be very risky as Germany learned from its dependence on Russian oil which went in the wrong direction under Merkel. Japan has released about 18% of its total reserve amount of the 254 days inventory (146 days in national reserves and 101 days in private mandated reserves). It uses 3.14 million barrels a day in 2026 down from 5.8 million barrels a day in 1996, using about half today through conservation and using renewable energy showing the potential for the US and Europe. Germany has cut oil consumption by a third in comparison from 2.9 mbd in 1996 to 2.0 in 2026. And the US remains stagnant with oil demand highest in 2005 at 20.5 mbd and 20 years later at 20.5 mbd mainly because 14mbd or 70% goes to cars and trucks on the road for 347 million people over continental spaces (compared to 297 million in 2005) for a reduction of oil use of 15%. ...

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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's remarks to the Australian foreign minister that the US will "not leave Australia alone on the field, or I should say alone on the pitch in the face of economic coercion from China." Trade relations between China and Australia are being reduced as Australia takes on a new role in the Indo-Pacific region.

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This editorial in the Economist looks at China's relationship with Russia. It says the Ukraine conflict and western sanctions have resulted in Russia moving closer to China. Yet the two countries have competing interests in central Asia, and different relations with India and Vietnam, in the Asian region. Russia is also wary of China copying designs of Sukhoi aircraft in sales to China of advanced military technology. The major oil and gas deal signed in 2014 provides Russia with a new outlet for oil and gas with the cooling of the relationship with Europe. Yet Russia has strong ties built with Germany over the entire post war period, and differences have emerged in U.S.- German relations. Germany's relationship with Russia- cooled by sanctions and German wariness over Russian intervention in Ukraine and Russian wariness over NATO close to its borders- spans 7 decades and is likely to remain strong in the long term. This comes from the shared sense of awareness of the terrible conflicts of an earlier period, just as it has for French-German relations, and from the strong efforts made by Germany to preserve the relationship and peace in Europe. Chinese president Xi's visit to Moscow on May 9, for celebrations of victory over Nazi Germany, will be followed by a visit May 10 by Chancellor Merkel of Germany. A factor in German-Russian relations is the close trade links, cultural exchanges, and history going back to the GDR where Chancellor Merkel is from, built up over many years, that are likely to set the long term future of relations. China's dominant partner relationship in the China- Russia relations does not bode well for the future of relations, compared to the equal partner relations with its European neighbor, Germany. In this different light Ukraine is a temporary pause, in German-Russian relations and peace in Europe, a situation which is in China's long term interest as it focusses on its economy and the next phase of development for a modernized economy. Especially as China continues to build on its own vital trade relations with Germany and the European Union, the latest example being Germany, other EU nations, and India, joining the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. ...

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The meeting planned between Xi and Biden is important for stable US China relations after the Trump administration angry rhetoric, the Covid pandemic, and when imbalances in the poorly managed trade relationship with the entire supply chain shifted to China with millions of its American jobs has shaken working class communities in the US. China's and Xi's views on Hong Kong and Taiwan have also affected the relations. After the Ukraine war this will be the first meeting between the two leaders, and follows a visit by German chancellor Scholz to Beijing. Under Bush America appeared to be distracted by middle east wars, under Obama and Trump America appeared weak or angry but not resolute. Under Biden America appears resolute and sure of itself. This makes a difference for US China relations. Following the Ukraine war both the US and Germany, and China, appear to have grasped the dangers of nuclear threats such as were made in recent weeks. India has also shown its serious concerns about wars for territorial gains, and the world community of nations has expressed this through the words and actions of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres speaking for Europe, and the rest of the world.  Under Biden America seeks decent Competition with China and not conflict, and this is in the interest of both countries and of all the countries in the world. Neither China or America represent the largest share of the world's peoples, and in a world of advanced technologies other regions such as India, Europe, South East Asia and Japan, have just as great a determination and influence to seek a mutually beneficial peaceful coexistence in the interests of all the peoples of the world including the continents of Africa and Latin America. ...

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Erdbrink describes the evolution of trade relations with China which helped Iran during the period of western sanctions. Because of trade with the U.S. and western partners, China was careful to use the Bank of Kunlun, created to handle financial transactions with Iran, for import of oil and export of automobiles and other products.

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A new security law for Hong Kong is passed at the end of a weeklong session of the National People's Congress. This gives China's agencies powers to police activities in Hong Kong and removes Hong Kong's autonomous status established by a treaty with Britain that arranged the handover in 1997. 2878 lawmakers voted with one dissent. China says it is intended to control separatism, terrorism and foreign interference in Hong Kong. It bypasses Hong Kong governing authorites and the effect is that it removes the "one country, two systems" basis of the handover by the British.  This sets the stage for the U.S. to remove Hong Kong special status in trading relations. The U.S. is joined by Canada, Australia and Britain in expression of "deep concern," and Japan has also said it is "seriously concerned" and "will address the situation in an appropriate manner." Under the U.S. Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 the U.S. treated Hong Kong as autonomous for trade and economic matters. Mr. Pompeo, the Secretary of State for U.S. says this status will no longer continue. As supply chains are being reassessed during the coronavirus, the end of autonomous status for Hong Kong would mean the beginning of a new period in changing economic relations across Asia and the Pacific. ...

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Saudi Arabian deputy defense minister Prince Khalid says polls show Saudis younger than 30 years old favor improved relations with Israel. As a first step Israeli planes would be allowed to fly over Saudi Arabia and control over two islands in the region would be handed over to the Saudis.  President Biden as a candidate had concerns about human rights in Saudi Arabia. Following the war with Ukraine and improving Saudi Israel relations it now appears likely that this will have an impact in improving US relations with the Saudis. Prince Khalid visited Washington and William Burns has also visited the Middle East for the Biden administration as it seeks to get Saudi Arabia to increase oil production following the EU oil embargo on Russian oil.  Saudis under Prince Salman who heads the administration are pushing to modernize Saudi Arabia and build ties for a broader relationship with the world than the traditional ties in the Middle East of Arab countries.The Saudis are improving relations with India and India was the first country to ship vaccines to Saudi Arabia. UAE and Qatar have also improved relations with the Modi administration in India. With China  engaged in trade and technology friction with the US after US investment and aid to China during the last 2 decades and the long period of aid to China during the Japanese invasion, the US is building new relationships in Asia, the Pacific and the Middle East. The new Saudi US relationship would be different from that of the old Saudi relationship as Saudi remains a monarchy but under the new administration and a younger generation of Saudis sees itself as a modernizing influence in the region. Biden sees these new factors as it looks to rebuild relationships in Asia.   ...

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China is consulting Japanese officials to understand their experience in negotiating with Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative. Lighthizer negotiated with Japan as Deputy Trade Representative in the Reagan Administration, when Japan was seen in the same way as China is seen now by the U.S. with difficult trade relations and trade imbalance.

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China's new foreign policy team under the Jinping-Keqiang administration. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi, becomes state councilor, and senior official on the team. The new foreign minister Wang Yi, was China's ambassador to Japan 2004-2007. The new ambassador to the U.S. is Cui Tiankai, a diplomat who graduated from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the U.S. Cui was ambassador to Japan 2007-2009. Managing the China-Japan and China-U.S. relationships is critical for China because China depends on U.S. and Japanese companies for investment and new technology, for continued economic progress. The relationship has been affected by the territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea. Germany as an advanced technology manufacturer and commodity exporters Australia, Canada, Argentina and Brazil depend on the Chinese market for exports, creating an interwoven economic dynamic that is likely to be the dominant factor in relations. This is also the perception of Li Keqiang who told a press conference in Beijing that the competition with the U.S. has been overemphasized, that he "does not believe conflicts between great powers are inevitable." Foreign affairs remains subordinate to domestic policy and priorities in China, as China tackles the problem of reorienting its economy to give an important place to the private sector and consumers. Itself not an easy task, as prime minister Keqiang pointed out at his first press conference: "Talking the talk is not as good as walking the walk." One of Keqiang's main allies in this effort is Robert Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, who helped put together with China's DRC, the report "China: 2030," outlining these priorities....

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China limits the activities of the Carter Center. Contacts for village democracy are discontinued. Xi Jinping, China's president tells former U.S. president Carter to limit activities to U.S.-China relations.