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Claire Gatinois and Soleyn de Royer's interesting essay on the life and times of Emmanuel Macron who started as one who would bring new life to the Fifth Republic but over 7 years sees that he has made poor choices and comes across as brash and inexperienced. His Movement was formed very quickly during the waning days of the Hollande administration of the Socialist Party. By bringing in Macron Hollande did what Blair and Clinton had done for Labour and Democrats thinking they were somehow moving to the centre in tackling the budget, deficit and the economy. Clinton hired as Treasury Secretary Goldman Sach's Robert Rubin and Harvard's Lawrence Summers, Obama hired Timothy Geithner, who like Macron in the Hollande cabinet lacked all conviction for improving the life of workers and the middle class in the US. Clinton setup China's entry into the World Trading Organization without grasping or understanding the economic framework of American manufacturing and thinking of industry leaders who were in that time in the  mood for outshoring everything made in the US with the inflexibility of American labor. Geithner like Cameron's Osborne had little affinity with the working or middle class, and did little to correct the abuses of banking professionals behind the 2009 financial crisis, which in some ways is still with us today, the pandemic being the second hit to workers and the middle class, the migrant surge an addition of mental unease. ...

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Janet Yellen is nominee to be Treasury secretary in the new administration of Joe Biden. The economic rebound from the pandemic that started in the summer is faltering without additional stimulus and help to businesses and people affected by the pandemic. She is the former chairman of the U.S. central bank the Federal Reserve.  Yellen faces a divided country and likely a divided Congress on many issues facing the country. She says of these divisions and the challenging task she faces of forging compromises- "Right now we live in a country where people look at the same set of facts and come to diametrically opposite conclusions, so that is a big challenge to anyone who takes that job, to build support for your policy outcomes." Yellen believes that the slow recovery after the 2009 financial crisis was because of a lack of a big enough stimulus and policy consensus across parties and with public opinion backing this up. During the pandemic in March 2020 the first stimulus was passed for $3.3 trillion  with support from the Congress and the Trump administration. Today Congress is split on the second stimulus with Democrats pushing for about $2.2 trillion for aid to state and local governments, jobless workers virus testing strategy. Republicans calling for about one third of this or $650 billion to help small businesses and industries such as tourism, retail and airlines. Because  interest rates are near zero much depends on getting an effective stimulus for speedy economic recovery. Conversations between the Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve, America's central bank, are critical to getting things done. A lot also depends on how Democrats and Republicans can put aside differences for the sake of getting the recovery back in place where it was during the summer. The media has a role to play in not stoking differences in public opinion which was the case close to the election to an unprecedented degree. One critical aspect of American process in getting things done is to bring Congress and the public with an elected president. Without a conciliatory approach and humility few presidents have succeeded as Congress and public opinion is also critical to getting things done. The House changes every 2 years so that even with  majorities- made transient by the founders of the constitution- nothing is certain without getting the other political party on your side. For the sake of the country and the people devastated by the pandemic, the professional class, media and politicians, Congress and the president need to bring a clear and transparent willingness to look at the national interest going forward.  ...

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Ros Douthat sees the crisis only putting things more in the hands of the same elites that got us into the mess in the first place. The mess with an out of control financial sector which began under Treasury Secretary Rubin, is now being handled by his proteges Summers and Geithner. The lack of any new solutions and the continuation of the "too big to fail" era, says Douthat.

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Stephen Castle of the NYT gives an objective look at Andy Burnham of the Greater Manchester area and Labour party leader. Burnham has said that Britain has been on the wrong path for 40 years and had the courage to prove this by leaving London for his home region of Greater Manchester in the North of England, after serving as chief secretary of The Treasury and Labour minister under Gordon Brown around the time of the financial crisis of 2009. After winning in Greater Manchester he served as Mayor of this important region of Britain second only to London in importance, which after the fall of the British Empire, has led to politics focusing entirely on London. His term as Mayor involved getting transportation out of the hands of the private companies and having the government run it efficiently for the people of Manchester. His term is viewed favorably for improving the economy of the region. Compared to the people Britain has turned out previously- Thatcher, Blair,  Brown, Cameron, Starmer, he has genuine experience running a region and tackling tough problems, which none of the other leaders had, that comes from his hard work for the people of Greater Manchester as head of the local government. He has the skills to bring people together around his vision for the Labour party, similar to that brought by Clement Attlee. At Lyrarc we looked at what  Britannica Encylopedia has to say about Attlee and found that Attlee spent his first 15 years in the difficult working class district of East London, similar to what Burnham has done by moving back to his home region in the north and quietly working to understand the people, their aspirations and how to make them come true. Attlee did this in 1945-51 (setting up the National Health Service NHS and Bank of England, other revered institutions) the way Franklin Roosevelt did in the 1930's to establish the modernization of New York government that he later applied to 51 states as president. This is the kind of task similar to Attlee and FDR that Burnham has the potential to accomplish for Britain. Like Attlee Burnham is self effacing with little sense of wanting public recognition, comfortable with who he is and where he is from. Like Attlee staying away from Ramsay MacDonald's Labour government in 1931, when it failed to find a clear path ahead for Britain, (Burnham concentrated on Manchester away from London), and decided to forge his own way forward with new ideas and being creative- as it was under Attlee that the British Empire was converted into the British Commonwealth of Nations. An enormous feat that has not been fully grasped and will one day be seen as an amazing achievement of the 20th century- India independent and  creating a modernized state the size of the US, European Union or China by 2040/2047. This is our assessment at Lyrarc of the potential Burnham could have for Britain- and possibly for the world again like Clement Attlee in 1945-1951. ...

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US foreign direct investment to China goes down 40% in 2020 to 2022 compared to the period 2015 to 2020, for India this was up by 20%, according to IMF. India was the only G-20 country that received this level of foreign direct investment. Prashant Jha of the Hindustan Times correctly points out that the IMF paper and the model on which this paper is based are flawed. The paper sees countries based on alignment and India as a so called non aligned country not part of friendshoring, even though Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has openly called for friendshoring in India alongside finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. IMF experts have not caught up to Mr. Biden's remarks about the US- India relationship that it would be "the closest on earth." Closer even than America's relationship with Britain or Europe. On oil imports Biden and Jake Sullivan believe that after the pandemic India should import oil at the lowest possible cost to meet the long time denied aspirations of 1.2 billion people, and build the infrastructure that will make it a critical part of America's new supply chain. Every time there are military drills and blockade of Taiwan by China the people of America are moving a step further away from American companies that have overconcentration of manufacturing in China and closer to calling for a new supply chain that reduces concentration in China and builds new manufacturing in India.  ...

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US president Biden makes three nominations to the US central bank, the Federal Reserve. Lisa Cook's nomination to the central bank is confirmed in the Senate 51-50. Following the appointment of Lael Brainard to the central bank as vice chairwoman, president Biden has nominated Cook, the first Black woman on the Federal Reserve board from Michigan State University. He has also nominated Mr. Jefferson of Davidson College to the Federal Reserve board. A fourth nomination is of Michael Barr, a law professor, as the Federal Reserve's vice chair of supervision. Lael Brainard served under president Clinton and is on the board of the Fed since 2014. She was Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs from 2010 to 2013, coordinating economic policy at G-7 meetings during that time. Jerome Powell, the current chairman of the US central bank is being renominated as chairman by president Biden after Powell's term expired in February. Lisa Cook's research focus was on policies that promote broad economic opportunities for women and racial minorities. She served on the Council of Economic Advisors under the Obama administration, and has worked at the Treasury Department. With Janet Yellen at Treasury and Jerome Powell and Brainard at the US central bank there is a shift to policies that will promote president Biden's agenda for his first term to invest in infrastructure, supply chain renewal and working class families in America. ...

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Brenner of McGill University and Fridson of S&P say the Bernanke Federal Reserve in the U.S. is doing what President Truman and Treasury Secretary Snyder did in the war and postwar years- paying down the U.S. debt as cheaply as possible by inflating the money supply. There are no new monetary insights here, and even though the policy is maintained outwardly as one to promote economic growth and employment, the main focus is to keep the cost of paying down the debt as cheaply as possible with low rates. This hurts savers and retirees earning very little on savings. They cite Bernanke's writings that show he is imitating the policy of the war years when the U.S. held down interest rates and succeeded in doing this for a decade.

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Taxpayers not the banks are Secretary Paulson's clients and he needs to remind himself of that says the NYT editorial page. It wants to see the government bring in new more competent management and not use the management that got us into this mess in the first pace especially where that management has demonstrated poor judgement and made errors that caused the bank to be in trouble. And it does not want to see the government a passive investor. It want the government to have a sy in mergers an acquisitions. Its not saying tha the government should take on the job of running the banks but protecting its investment means Treasury has to be involved in critical decisions that affect its investment and in the way the business is run and what risks are taken. Also Treasury is asked to watch for and take steps against conflicts of interest. Many of the same banks that are selling their assets to Treasury will also be asked to help Treasury to run the troubled asset program. Treasury to take care that these banks do not end up writing the rules on one side for Treasury and selling Treasury the assets by being on the other side because it won't be good for taxpayers. See Guillermo Ortiz's advice to Fed chairman Bernanke at the recent G20 meetings which says says be sure to take ownership stakes, as there was serious, lasting and damaging political fallout in Mexico during the 1994-95 peso crisis, from conflicts of interest and the failure to take ownership stakes and dividends on preferred shares. ...

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This report in the WSJ provides details on the groundwork that was laid by the Trump administration as it worked to find a solution to the problems facing Venezuela with refugees and economic crisis, and months of protests. The plans were set in the days before Nicholas Maduro took office for the second term as president. The night before Juan Guaido, head of the National Assembly, declared himself president, U.S. vice president Mike Pence stated that the U.S. would support him if he took the reins of government from Maduro by invoking a clause in the Venezuelan Constitution that makes the head of the National Assembly take the office of president if the existing president is declared illegitimate taking office unlawfully. About 60 nations did not recognize the elections that gave Maduro a second term. On Jan 2 Mr Trump who feels deeply about the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and rising poverty, the suffering of the Venezuelan people, met with presidents of Brazil and Colombia. Colombian president Ivan Duque and Trump hinted at a plan to cooperate to help people fleeing Venezuela and respecting its democratic heritage. Mr Pompeo spoke to allies of the U.S. The National Assembly laid out its plans on Jan 15, for using a constitutional mechanism that allows the head of the Assembly to lead an interim government till new elections are held if the existing president is declared illegitimate. A leading Republican senator of Cuban origin Mr. Rubio supported the move. On the eve of protests in Venezuela Rubio and two other senators from Florida met Mr. Trump and Pence at the White House. Also present were Bolton, Pompeo, Ross and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Mr. Trump then decided to do it. He placed a call to Mr. Guiado  to tell him that if the National Assembly invoked Article 233 the U.S. president would back him.  The U.S. believes the rank and file in the military are with the opposition even though its leaders back Maduro. After the U.S. action, the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia, backed the move for an interim government. The European Union called for free and credible elections. Russia and Mexico supported Maduro.  The State Department instructed the U.S. Federal Reserve about Guiado government as the sole representative for Venezuelan assets in banks. Sanctions could be placed on Venezuelan oil exports as backup efforts proceed to support the interim government. ...

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Vigorous and eloquent testimony before Congress by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, answering questions from Republicans and Democrats. Bessent had just landed from London at 3 am in the morning and after 3 hours of sleep took the time to answer over 5 hours of questioning by members of the House of Representatives. In question after question he explained how the certainty offered by the tax cuts bill would help small business and job creation in the US. The permanence of the 100% expensing of buildings and equipment would help farmers and small business , regulations would be cut, and manufacturing would take off. Manufacturing employs 9% of the workers in the US and their wages will rise faster than for service workers. The combined effects of the improvements for small business, farmers and for manufacturing workers will help the American middle class, America's working class, and increase the growth of the economy. Bessent points out that in the original bill of which the new tax bill is an extension the top 10% paid 7% more in taxes in 2017. He also points out that workers were hurt the most by the slower rise in wages and the rise in cost of living of 21% in 2021-2022, which he says was in essential goods with the actual impact of about 30%. With higher jobs creation by small business and more investment in the economy more able bodied men can join the workforce and gain healthcare benefits under new rules. He pointed to low inflation at 2.1% and to higher job creation, and to higher growth in the economy of 2.6%, that with other savings could lower the deficit. ...

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US Trade Representative Lighthizer in the Report on China's Entry into WTO sees this as a mistake in the policy of president Clinton. Clinton has said that was a mistake. David Sacks raised this issue in a podcast with Larry Summers, an economist who was deputy to Robert Rubin and Deputy Treasury Secretary, then Treasury Secretary succeeding Rubin in 1999. Clinton on the advice of Rubin and Summers set up the framework for China to join the World Trade Organization without the safeguards and the setup that would prevent it using state capitalism and subisidies to build its own economy with exports, to ally with American corporations to support the outshoring of almost the entire industrial base of the US. Shocking as it sounds this has happened, had happened by 2016, when Donald Trump with the advice of USTR Lighthizer took the first steps to reverse this with Tariff policy, which was supported by president Biden, and continues in its new phase under DJT in 2025. Rubin and Summers had supported deregulation of financial markets and removal of the Glass Steagall Act by 1999. This was to led to the financial crisis of 2009 that was to be one of three body blows to the American working and middle class. The others China entering WTO without safeguards that led to deindustrializing US and loss of its manufacturing base, loss of 5 million jobs, tens of thousands of factories. And the third was the pandemic. “ . . .it seems clear that the United States erred in supporting China’s entry into the WTO on terms that have proven to be ineffective in securing China’s embrace of an open, market-oriented trade regime” 2017 USTR Report to Congress on China’s WTO ...

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USC Justices Roberts, Gorsuch and Coney Barrett questioning Solicitor General Sauer, and lawyer for the small business Katyal, on Tariffs by the US president DJT in November 2025. Coney Barrett says the whole thing is a big mess. Treasury Secretary Bessent who watched the proceedings in the Court benches says the issue of fentanyl is one of the reasons for tariffs on China which has played a uncooperative role on this issue of fentanyl sourced by drug trafficking gangs on America's borders. Bessent saying that it is a policy tool when unfriendly powers seek to hurt America. DJT says a SCOTUS ruling against the Tariffs would reduce America to Third World status. Most American themselves are being told by the media interests that the issue of young Americans dying from fentanyl is an issue like many others not that it is the heart of the issue that more Americans have died from fentanyl than the youth of America who died in the Korean, Vietnam and First World Wars combined. The wine import company with 19 employees whose lawyer Katyal filed a petition to SCOTUS is a tiny part of the people harmed by tariffs. It could easily be compensated from the tariffs revenue of $500 billion in 2025-2026 as could other businesses. How does the SCOTUS decide what policy the US is to use. With recalcitrant Asian nations Japan and China the only way is years of negotiations that lead nowhere on world trade. Is SCOTUS responsible or Congress to the American people when the supply chain disruptions caused by concentration of the supply chain in China led to huge price increases making life unaffordable for the low income earners,  including cost of automobiles? Large companies acting on the DJT signals are reducing this concentration in China actively, the trade deficit is coming down, the tariffs revenue is a fund to offset the cost to Americans mostly smaller businesses as large businesses increased their margins in 2022-2024 pricing moves so that today only about 30% of the tariff cost is borne by the average Americans, the rest by large businesses and some of it by exporters in China and Japan. ...

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The weaker dollar has given a boost to U.S. exports. The dollar has dropped by 9.1% compared to the prior year against a broad basket of currencies. U.S. exports have provided 1.4 percentage points of the 3.0% annualized growth since the 3rd quarter of 2009. The U.S. dollar is now 5% away from its all time low in March 2008, when tracked using the dollar index. Before the 2008 crisis the dollar had over a six year period lost about 40% of its value. Low interest rates in the U.S. and concerns about the deficit have contributed to the dollar's decline in value. While the decline helps boost exports, it also increases the price of oil in dollar terms and increases inflation. A Gallup poll in April showed 42% of Americans had no confidence in the Fed's policies for the economy, and 43% had no faith in Treasury Secretary Geithner. The decline is taking place even as Japan is recovering from the earthquake, and Greece is likely to have to restructure its debt obligations with European banks taking losses....

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US president DJT meets with Rutte of the Netherlands Jan 21, 2026. He says he has come up with a framework for US acquisition of Greenland, rights title, and ownership of the island for US security and world security. He called for immediate negotiations with the goal of US acquisition of the island of Greenland.  The political situation is evolving in this way. Germany is key in the developments for the US to acquire Greenland. Britain is standing it out with the Nordic countries as Starmer has shifted to the side of Sweden and Denmark with little to gain for the Labor government which is facing local elections and popularity of Reform UK Party. In this situation Italy and Germany have taken a posture of not making any statements. Germany facing Russian intervention in Ukrain on the east needs the US for joint security at a critical juncture when Russia and the US have agreed to respect each others area of influence. Italy is run by a northern Italy party leaning to the anti-immigration stance taken by DJT in the US. It makes little difference to Netherlands, Germany/Austria/Switzerland and Italy who controls Greenland and in the context of Russian advances and nuclear weapons technology would prefer US move to acquire Greenland and rapidly build up defenses in Greenland with large investments. To not disturb the alliance's northern countries (Britain and Nordics) Germany has taken a back seat to the rhetoric yet will be in the deciding role because of its stable government, support from all parts of the political spectrum for US control of Greenland except for the coalition junior partner the SPD. The SPD Defense Minister Pistorius may form parts of the SPD that see US owning the island as positive in the bolstering of its defense capabilities with th $1 trillion outlay in the budgeted investments. Starmer may have misread DJT and US support as the US president can make a very good case for US owning Greenland and getting Denmark to accept the offer of Harry Truman of $100 million made in 1947, updated for what that sum is today which is $1.5 billion. As DJT pointed out Macron has no longevity for his government in France, and cannot speak for that country. As Treasury Secretary Bessent who along with Rubio is part of the team that will work with the president says, Denmark is irrelevant to the issues US faces for US and world security. It is a small country, Denmark, with a population of 6 million most of it in the area near Copenhagen. Houston or Dallas has a much larger population. For Denmark to decide on momentous issues of US security for the entire eastern seaboard or world security, with ownership essential for the US,  when climate has made the Arctic important, is something the US does not accept.   ...

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US president DJT speaks at the Economic Club of Detroit, looking back at a year of rapid action on the US Border, Big Beautiful Bill, Tariffs action, Cutting Cost of Living action on several fronts, and action against drug/people trafficking by Venezuela, Mexico. Highlights of the speech which comes to a state that decided the 2016 election for DJT and which is the center of America's automobile industry started by Henry Ford in Dearborn, Michigan. He had restored the automobile industry to the days when it was the leader in the world and when names such as Henry Ford, Alfred Sloan of General Motors, were the envy of the world, by bringing auto manufacturing back from places like Mexico, Japan and Germany. Back to America after years of reckless outshoring by American business under the Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations, on the advice of equally reckless economists and advisors to these administrations. The president did not say this but this restoration continued in a different way for labor under the Biden administration that followed DJT policies but focused on the other side of the coin for the auto industry - protecting worker's wages by Biden standing on a picket line for the strike by unions for higher wages. After these wages were restored from years of outshoring and pressure on wages, the need to do the work of bringing companies back through tariffs on imports as leverage in tough negotiations with Japan, South Korea and Germany was left to DJT and his administration. The president stated clearly that the economists and predictions were proved wrong on tariffs as none of these predictions of tariffs passed on to American buyers have come true. As DJT made certain the companies not to lose their business in the US decided to avoid taking that road and acted to reduce their profit margins and costs. As Scott Bessent, a veteran of Wall Street and now Treasury Secretary who conducted these negotiations for DJT, has repeatedly pointed out the tariffs were a way to get these tough negotiators and their governments from Japan, S. Korea and Germany to cooperate. It is nowhere written in the code of fair conduct of nations that the US should helplessly after decades of letting these countries benefit put its workers out of work and its industries get destroyed, when the US was taking on the additional burden of protecting these nations from hostile neighbors. ...

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Jacob Lew, U.S. Budget Director under president Clinton and under president Obama, is Obama's chief of staff. He guides the negotiating team for the Democrats in the "fiscal cliff" negotiations with Republicans. Colleagues describe him as thorough and meticulous. He negotiated with Republicans in 2011, running into problems with Republicans and Speaker Boehner, who saw him as inflexible in the negotiations. Lew is a son of Polish immigrants living in Queens, New York, and participated actively in Democratic causes from his student days. This time the lead negotiator is Treasury Secretary Geithner. Lew was an aide to Democratic Speaker Tip O'Neill. In 1983 he helped O'Neill in negotiations for Social Security legislation when Reagan was president. In 1997 he helped negotiate an agreement with Republicans to balance the budget under president Clinton.

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A former U.S. Treasury Secretary reflects on the backlash against free trade in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and calls for a shift towards putting more emphasis on how trade affects individual workers who are laid off or work part time. In the light of tax evasion following the Panama Papers Scandal he says the time has come for the emphasis to shift in trade policy and capital movements to tax havens, so that ordinary workers do not feel their interests are being ignored as elites frame policies for elites. He says the period when it was enough to defend global integration has been exhausted, and this is unlikely to succeed without a nation like the U.S. supporting it and global institutions. A new approach is needed, and this means shifting from international trade agreements to international harmonization agreements, where labor rights, environmental protection move to the top of the list, and enabling foreign producers becomes secondary. The whole overall emphasis must shift, says Summers, to creating hope and opportunity for middle class parents that their children can live better lives....

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Limit China's involvement in your economies for reduction in reciprocal tariffs- this is the message from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who leads the negotiations with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The Trump statement read yesterday April 14 by Katherine Leavitt was as follows- “The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them. China wants what we have…the American consumer,” Leavitt said when reading Trump’s statement.  The idea is to reduce any leverage China has to ignore the US interests in restoring its lost industrial base shipped by American companies to China, in one of history's astonishing happenings that make economic theories useless. It is only a common sense and fairness that can provide a solution to this problem, the kind of fairness that the US has given throughout its history since 1800 to other nations. ...

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WSJ report shows that on the morning of the 90 Day Pause in Tariffs announcement discussions took place with the Swiss prime minister, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and watching Fox News interview of JP Morgan Chase's Jamie Dimon. Seeing the turmoil in financial markets and bond markets, US president DJT made the decision to give time to make the agreements with about 50 countries, and time for financial markets to understand the president's  policy and goals to reformulate the world trading system into one that offers a level playing field. The chart showing the Tariffs of 67% by China and US 34% imposed tariff in the Rose Garden on April 2, 2025, was say reports the result of the influence on the president of the advice of Peter Navarro.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expertise is in financial markets as a protege of Soros, Navarro's is world trade. Bessent stepped in when financial markets appeared to reflect the uncertainty and convinced the president that the 90 day pause would be the best way to implement the policy on trade. There is a vigorous debate in the administration about how to get a level playing field for trade, and get the job done without disruptions in financial markets or a recession induced by uncertainty. On April 10 as part of the effort to talk to the American people US president DJT opened up his Cabinet meeting to the media and had Bessent, Borghum, RFK Jr and Marco Rubio talk about their plans and policies. Proper implementation, gaining confidence of the people of America and financial markets, is now as important as the goals and policies in the next 90 days. Getting the trade deals with the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Britain and India would go a long way to reassure financial markets and set the right tone for the future.   ...

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US Senate increases debt limit increase to $5.1 trillion from House 3B Tax Cuts Bill debt limit of $4.1 trillion in 2025. The Big Bold Beautiful Bill as the president calls it will also make the debt limit increase permanent to avoid the brinksmanship of earlier administrations. Republicans will pass this as they assume the mantle of working for the average middle class and working class household. Republicans have taken up the cause of small businesses in the US who are supported by this bill. The bill in the view of Treasury Secretary Bessent helps growth of the economy through its 100% expensing provisions, so that the capital expenditures spending of small and large businesses on equipment and buildings that is now held up will take place  rapidly in the coming year. The 3B Tax Cuts Bill does decrease the taxes of the higher income households, yet it also decreases the taxes of small business owners, and of people in the middle income range. Similar bills in the Reagan period led to a larger share of national income going to a majority of the population, and increasing growth and investment. This bill's expensing provisions goes a step further to release capex energies. During the Carter period before Reagan and the Biden period before Trump's second term the lower income classes were cheated out of their income's propensity for a better standard of living by inflation. Republican administration of DJT has focused on inflation to help working class people and focused on capital investment to generate the growth that will increase jobs. ...

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The U.S. government sold its last remaining shares in auto company GM booking a loss of $10.5 billion- a recovery of $39 billion dollars of the $49.5 billon dollars given to GM. The Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., points out that the cost of bailing out GM and Chrysler was about $13.7 billion. The benefits were 1.2 million jobs protected in 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis. It also preserved $39.4 billion in personal and social insurance tax collections in 2009 and 2010. The Treasury Department estimate of the cost is about $15 billon, including money invested in GM's former finance arm Ally Financial Inc. President Obama says the effort helped create 372,000 new jobs in five years. Treasury Secretary Lew summed it up by saying "it helped stabilize the auto industry and prevent another Great Depression." Other intangible but larger benefits in the long run were building up the companies anew with new pay structures the auto companies could support in a globalized economy, bringing in new management and discarding of old mindsets and culture, new relationships with unions and customers, committment to achieving fuel efficiency targets with new technologies in cooperation with the U.S. government guidelines, and renewed confidence of millions of employees in the U.S. auto sector. It is also the one area in which the Obama administration scores a clear win, and in which president Obama took the greatest interest as senator. That the public did not fully appreciate the significance of the step is more a reflecion of public frustration with how the companies were run by the old management, and a continual reminder of the importance of good management for the U.S. industry and economy....

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Greg Ip in the WSJ says India is shifting towards  becoming an important partner with the US and the European Union in trade under the Modi government. This report reflects the situation upto 2021 and the changes in Indian and American perceptions during the pandemic. It does not reflect the rapidly evolving situation under president Biden.US president Biden and Jake Sullivan National Security Advisor see rapidly expanding US trade and investment in India. The recent Raisina Dialogue  brings together 26 countries- named after Raisina Hill in New Delhi where India's administration is located- in dialogue with Indian leaders. Finance Minister Sitharaman in an interview at Raisina Dialogue stated that Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, was with her during a G-20 meeting, and Yellen called for friendshoring- foreign investment in democracies that respect the rule of law and provide the right conditions for investment. The right conditions are now being created in India, including infrastructure and logistics, trade practices, and assistance to foreign companies, to invest in Indian manufacturing. The conditions are being created for shifting significant number of manufacturing facilities to India in a complete redesign of the supply chain. A look at the period 1950-2015 in US-EU India relations says little of the newly evolving situation in trade in the way that looking at the US-EU China relations 1950-1990 during the Cold War would tell one little about how that relationship evolved in trade after 1990 in the 1990-2019 period for massive trade with China. The pandemic and the inflation from existing supply chain bottlenecks has led to a realization in US-EU that the existing concentration of manufacturing in one country  was a mistake and is a serious problem that needs correction.  This means an acceleration in the effort to build rapidly over the next 5-10 years a strong US-EU manufacturing presence in India for advanced technologies. India under prime minister Modi is creating the infrastructure and logistics for this to happen with large domestic investment, the help of Denmark's Maersk in port logistics, and from other countries.  Fo India manufacturing and infrastructure building is the only way to create the jobs needed to meet the aspirations of its young population. For the US-EU the redesign of the supply chain is the highest priority to cut inflation, remove potential bottlenecks, and provide a stable supply chain.    ...

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Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs executive is the new Treasury Secretary in the Trump administration. His ties to Goldman Sachs go beyond his own work at the firm. His father joined Goldman in 1957, and worked for his entire career at the investment bank. Steven's brother Alan also worked at Goldman. During the campaign Trump was severe in his criticism of his opponents Cruz and Clinton's ties to the bank. Ironies abound, not only is the new Treasury Secretary from Goldman, his connections go back a generation. The Treasury Secretary under Clinton was Goldman Sachs executive Robert Rubin. Under Bush who followed Clinton the Treasury Secretary was Goldman Sachs executive Henry Paulson. Under Republican and Democratic administrations Goldman Sachs executives have held key positions. Mr Mnuchin was campaign finance chairman for Trump for 6 months leading to him being chosen for Treasury Secretary. Mnuchin joined Goldman in 1985. During the campaign Trump was also severe in his criticism of financier George Soros, making this a key point in a debate with Clinton for taking Soros's support. This report by Das and Ensign points out that in 2002 Mnuchin left Goldman to run a credit fund set up by George Soros. In 2004 Mnuchin founded hedge fund Dune Capital Management LP with Soros support.  When IndyMac bank collapsed a deal with the government was arranged that covered a part of any future loan losses being taken by FDIC, and Dune was one of several hedge funds and private equity funds including Soros funds that acquired it for $1.5 billion. The renamed IndyMac bank was called OneWest with Mnuchin as chairman. OneWest was sold in 2014 at a large profit to CIT Group Inc. This report says CIT Group took a $230 million charge in July 2015 for accounting problems at OneWest.  During the latter part of the Trump campaign after he joined it in May 2016, Mnuchin set up a joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee. This made it possible for major donors to give to the Republican party and Mr Trump. The head of the Republican National Committee is Mr. Lewis Eisenberg. Having run the technology division at Goldman, Mnuchin was prominent in Goldman and investment banking circles in New York.    ...

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The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Dec. 13, 2016, that it would increase its benchmark short term interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, to between 0.50% and 0.75%. The increase will also be reflected in business and household borrowing costs. The Fed also announced its intention to make 0.75% percentage point increase in 2017, possibly in 3 quarter percentage point moves. The Fed's forecast is for the fed-funds rate to reach 2.1% at the end of 2018, and 2.9% at the end of 2019. The Fed's policy is based on a sense of strong labor market with unemployment falling, and says it is based on discussion at a 2 day meeting, and "in view of realized and expected labor-market conditions and inflation." This reflects a view that there is now not that much slack in the labor market, that further improvements could trigger higher inflation. Fed forecasts for inflation are for it to increase from 1.5% in 2016 to 1.9% in 2017 and to the target of 2% in 2018. The unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2016 is forecast to go to 4.5% in 2017 and remain at that level till 2019. Economic growth is forecast at a median annual rate of 1.9% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017, only a slight improvement from last forecast in Sept. 2016. Support for chairwoman Yellen's policy decision was unanimous. See the link on views of NYT's Binyamin Applebaum and Neil Irwin on how Fed rate policy and economic growth under the Trump administration is likely to play out, and Ian Talley's report on impact on exports with a stronger dollar in WSJ. These views also are in line with the Fed's forecasts and policy decision as they reflect the concerns of the Fed about inflation, and also reflect the Fed's view that growth will be close to 2% in 2017-2019, and not the 3-4% stated by Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Fed rate policies to keep inflation at about 2% tend to counter stimulus spending by the Trump administration and effect of tax cuts. The size of the stimulus and the tax cuts are also likely to be much smaller than stated because of Republican concerns about the deficit in the U.S. Congress, according to these views. The stronger dollar also has the paradoxical effect of making trade gains more difficult while increasing trade friction in tougher bargaining supported by Trump, making the higher growth targets harder to reach.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The US Federal Reserve Report on Economic Wellbeing of US Households 2024-May 2025 gives some insights into the well being of American households. It shows food insufficiency households the same in 2023-2025 at 7%. The situation for cost of living remains a concern in 2024 as well as 2025. Retirement savings have improved for many middle class Americans, as confirmed by reports from Fidelity and Vanguard. The people earning less than 25,000 are 19% and about the same in 2024 under Biden as under DJT in 2025. 39% make $100,000 or more and 26% make $50,000 -$100,000. Combining the 19% making less than $25,000 and the 16% making between $25,000 and $50,000 shows about one third of the population under $50,000 living paycheck to paycheck. It would appear that $2000 DJT rebate putting $160 billion out of $550 billion of tariff revenues for 2025-2026  in the hands of 79 million households that make less than $100,000 would go a long way to keep the situation stable with optimism and hope arising from the restructuring of world trade that would bring trillions of dollars of investment into the US from Europe and Asia. A this investment plus domestic investment should bring back jobs and higher incomes to US manufacturing in small towns across America. The rest of $550 billion tariff revenue of $390 billion would go to reducing the deficit which would improve prospects for the economy in 2027 and produce a more resilient economy in 2027-2028. As shown on this page the popular Democratic Governor of Michigan in her op-ed in Washington Post supports strategic tariffs, and supports using the revenue for a check to American workers of $2000 per worker or per worker household and offers to work with the opposite party to get a WIN-WIN for the American People.  In the whole process of trade tariffs it must be remembered when seeing the inconsistent cases of tariff use by this Republican administration that these were special reason situations not aberrations or whimsical. First, it should be borne in mind that behind the appearance of DJT making tariff decisions is a carefully thought out process that took ten years to form under Reagan era Trade Representative Lighthizer who negotiated with Japan, and his deputy Jamieson for 2016-2024, and the economic and capital markets experience of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The two cases of inconsistent application of tariffs relate to the 50% tariff on India and the reduction of tariffs on China agreement on rare earths, and the imposition of a large tarif on Japan and the EU. In the first instance with India it was intended to give Ukraine breathing room from Russian attacks as Germany steps up its military preparedness and assistance to Ukraine. With both countries it was about saving face important in Asian or any societies and it has achieved it's purpose. Reports show both Indian and Chinese refiners have quietly cut purchases of oil from Russia leading to Russian oil selling at about $20 discount to Brent crude oil. In the case of Japan the quick action to raise tariffs was intended not to get into long drawn negotiations and show serious intent- Japan is known for dragging out negotiations for years if not decades. The same is true for the European Union. With the Swiss it was about a certain disrespect of the US coming from attitudes that Swiss products were somehow superior. Not just in the long run, in 2026-2028 history will show that the effort done right - and it takes effort to get this right- to restructure world trade so that other nations are not siphoning off the benefits and leaving the US to lose its manufacturing and factories is the right one. And taken with courage and sincere desire to create a fair distribution of the benefits of world trade for too long distorted by egregious practices of competitors. It has nothing to do with 2 senators from the 1930's who were from places like the Mountain West in the US, having no concept of world trade, Smoot and Hawley, who under a irresponsible president Hoover got everything wrong. This is a carefully set out plan to evenly balance the benefits of world trade to all nations.   ...