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Hillary Clinton reminds voters that DOanld Trump lies repeatedly when he says he never supported the war in Iraq. She tells voters to look at "Donald Trump Iraq" in Google, and this report in the NYT says Google Trends show a spike in Google searces for this term significantly more than other searches. 

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This report in The Times says president Trump seeks to reduce tensions with Iran and relies more on the advice of General Keane than his National Security Adviser Mr. Bolton. Mr. Bolton is seen as holding strong views on Iran that could accidentally increase tensions or conflict with Iran.

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US calls on other nations that depend the most on oil out of the Straits of Hormuz such as China and other nations to guard the Hormuz Straits, as the US considers winding down the war.

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...

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DJT says time is on their side to negotiators so that the blockade on Iran will remain till a deal is made that cover nuclear materials. US blockade of Iran in force till a deal is reached as final deal will require going beyond Memorandum to nuclear materials -this is the situation on May 24 2026. Mediators Pakistan and Turkey have only got as far as getting a Memorandum- a written document of intentions not actions taken on nuclear materials- while all the time the IRGC Iran says nuclear is not included. What explains this? There are now two factions inside Iran that are the IRGC and the elected president of Iran, one not as committed to nuclear weapons as the IRGC at the cost to the people of Iran and the nation's economic future. This war has proved that while oil producing countries are causing great damage to their economies and productive potential- this includes Russia, Iran and Saudis-the world is moving on its goal of reduced dependence on oil followed by fossil free future in 2 stages. By the first stage if modernization does not take place in the Middle East it will lose forever the opportunity to modernize infrastructure and fall behind other countries including China, India, Brazil and other nations that have made the shift.  ...

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DJT calls for Iran to end nuclear program Feb 19 2026, at first Board of Peace meeting in Washington DC. The need for a safer world without the nuclear proliferation to smaller states that increases risks of nuclear war, to North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. This also means that the US Russia's, China's and India's policy needs to shift to cooperation not just on arms limitation, but also in the area of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to smaller states. One idea needs to be dispelled the idea that a state gains from its disproportionate use of the country's income and resources to develop nuclear weapons as has happened in Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea, where this has resulted in impoverishment of the country. Another that retaining nuclear weapons would have put Ukraine at an advantage, that states are better off keeping nuclear weapons technologies and weapons for the survival of governments. The world is going through a difficult period- it took many centuries of hardship for China, India, (five centuries since 1500) and other countries to modernize and industrialize, and no one wants to see everything put at risk in the coming generations. Europe and America also have a lot at stake with the countries being poor for most of the period before the 1950's and industrialization. All the achievements of science and technology, all of modern life are at risk of disappearing with this one threat. ...

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U.S. president Trump delivers a forceful speech at the UN General Assembly. He says the U.S. would take strong action against North Korea, and called both Iran and North Korea "rogue nations." President Bush first used the language of "rogue nations" for North Korea and Iran in a speech at West Point Military Academy in June 2002. In that speech Bush also said he reserved the right for pre-emptive action. This was followed by the invasion of Iraq. Trump also said the U.S. was "prepared to take further action" on Venezuela. French president Macron offered his own view, that the door for dialogue was open with North Korea. Prime minister Netanyahu of Israel affirmed Trump's statements on Iran calling Iran's access to nuclear weapons dangerous.  Fifteen years after Bush's speech the situation has not changed. In some ways it has deteriorated with the war in Syria, and continuing war in Iraq, the refugee crisis, and the ballistic missile testing by North Korea. ...

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BBC reports on Iran protests January 2026. Protests happened with students, with women periodically over the last two decades. Iran over the years since the monarchy in the 1880's and democratic movements (parliaments) in 1900's, monarchy in the 1930's and 1960's, socialist governments 1960's. Cold War and restored monarchy in 1970's, religious theocracy 1990's till today has gone through many different governments. It was part of the British Empire (that included India/Pakistan) and Russia's buffer region in the 18th and 19th century.  After economic sanctions from US and Europe the economy depends on sanctioned oil exports. Its defense operations divert much of the funding from oil based resources away from economic development . Much of that was a result of the anticolonial socialist ideologies that spread from North Africa (Algeria, Egypt) to Iraq and Syria that led to wars in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan- which also led to Iraq's version the Baathist ideology invading Iran. Russia and the US have extracted themselves at much loss from these conflicts by 2025 and are posed at a historic rapprochement in relations. For Iran there is today no danger from the region or from European powers, and like the US the people and the country are asking questions about the economic and living conditions from so much in resources now diverted to external conflicts- like the US the people in the region of Iran and the entire Middle East apart from a few small oil rich regions with a tiny part of the overall population- maybe 5% in Qatar and UAE, and Saudi- feel the impact of little investment in rapid economic development of the overall region. A region with a population close to the European Union of 500 million but a tiny fraction of economic development investment for the vast majority of people in Egypt and other parts of North Africa and regions of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Sudan. Most of the investment of $1 trillion is concentrated in the 10% of the population of over 500 million people in oil resource Saudi Arabia, UAE/Qatar monarchies, the rest languishing in war, and now meaningless- in terms of living standards- of anticolonial ideologies or militant religious ideologies, or internecine/ethnic conflict. ...

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UK's Starmer response to DJT request for use of British bases in Gloucestershire and Diego Garcia- it "took far too long."

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US Naval Blockade of Iran - Day 10.

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Some estimates of the cost of the Iran War for the US are about $13 billion over 10 days of the war. US president DJT asks Congress for $200 billion to finance the war. Iran refuses to back down on the closing of the Straits of Hormuz. Much of the oil going through the Straits of Hormuz goes to Asia, 90% from Kharg Island in Iran goes to China. Oil from the UAE goes through the Straits to Japan and India.

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Oil price drops by $5 in one day to $65 a barrel as Iran US/Israel ceasefire June 23, 2025 following the carefully measured Iran missile strike (14 missiles) strike on Qatar airbase with early warning to the US. The move was seen as a moderation shown by Iran, and DJT pursued the option of ceasefire with Qatar's mediation. An Israel Iran ceasefire is expected in the next 12 hours.

This closes a chapter of the nuclear weapons development proliferation pursued by Iran and blocked by Israel and the US. It started with Israel's strikes on Iran nuclear sites. 

This puts the attention back to the economy and completing the trade agreements under the Trump administration's tariffs and efforts to level playing field in world trade.

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Bret Stephens in the NYT points out that the Iran Nuclear Deal did not have the support it needed to become a lasting agreement. He cites a Pew poll at the time of the deal showing 21% supporting it and 49% not supporting it. It lacked the two thirds support needed in Congress for a treaty to be passed. It was a J.C.P.O.A. or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action not an Executive Agreement or a Treaty, says Stephens. France initially called for stronger safeguards so that the Agreement would limit the development of nuclear weapons. Only later did France and the EU come into acceptance of the deal.  Stephens points out the efforts to renegotiate the deal coming from the EU, and cites this as showing that a better deal could have been negotiated. Since the deal the conflicts in the Middle East have continued to grow, so that the constructive developments of advancing Iran's economic development and reducing the role of military conflicts were not addressed, say experts skeptical of the deal. ...

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Iran Ceasefire breaks down as US escorts ships through Hormuz clearing Iranian fastboats. Iran sends missiles at oil hubs of UAE. Two US destroyers were closely followed by 2 merchant ships as they successfully transited through the straits on Monday morning. Iran sent 6 fastboats at the ships which were destroyed, cruise missiles and drones which had no effect. US Central Command says 100 Navy and Air Force planes drones, satellite imagery and more than 15,0000 military personnel are part of this Project Freedom. Trump says a South Korean ship was involved and maybe South Korea should be part of the effort to clear the waters. DJT says the Project Freedom is for the purpose of - “Meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance." WHich is to say that poor countries and middle income countries around the world are affected by the IRGC Iran actions that affect oil, fertilizer and other energy supplies. ...

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Iraq is Iran's most promising market for gas exports. Iraq needs the gas for its power stations now that Islamic State has been decisively cleared from Iraq. Yet Iraq is having difficulty making payments to Iran for gas supplies because banks are not ready to handle the payments with the reimposed tighter U.S. sanctions and restrictions. The deputy head of media at the Electricity ministry in Iraq, Sadoun Shehan, told WSJ that transfer of money by Iraqi banks is prevented because of U.S. sanctions. U.S. sanctions were reimposed by the Trump administration after they were lifted in January 2016. The new sanctions prohibit gas exports from Iran. Iran had hoped to make the sales and also export to the European Union when sanctions were lifted. Iranian exports of gas that started in 2017 were itself delayed for 4 years by the war from Islamic State.  Iran has the second largest reserves of natural gas in the world. The Trump administration's sanctions have led to a drop of Iranian crude shipments by 29% in 3 months and added to upward pressure on oil prices to take prices to $80 a barrel. This issue has implications for India and China, particularly India as it faces both higher prices for oil and the tight restrictions in purchase of Iranian oil. ...