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Both sides hold positions unacceptable to the other in the Russia Ukraine conflict making negotiations difficult. Russia wants to hold on to annexed regions in the east including Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia continues shelling of Kherson after it was taken back by Ukraine. The conflict drags on in the winter months. The civilian population of Ukraine bears a significant burden from damage to the electricity grid, reducing heating and lighting in the winter.

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Cuts in gas transmission through Ukraine have reduced Russian gas to Europe on Ukraine pipelines by about one third.

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Reports by David Sanger and other reporters from the NYT on the situation in Ukraine as seen from the US, Russian, European, and Ukrainian sides. Russian president Putin sees Ukraine as part of the Russian cultural and economic sphere with deep ties to Ukraine in its history. The western parts of Ukraine near Poland and near the capital Kiev see their future more in relation to other Eastern European countries that have moved closer to or joined the European Union such as Poland and the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. It is not clear even to advisors to the Russian government what Mr. Putin's intentions and plans are. Russia has not yet recognized the two breakaway republics in Eastern Ukraine based in Donestsk.  Some of the key points in Ukraine's recent history- one needs to know this because Ukraine has a difficult history in its relations with Poland/Lithuania and with Russia alternating over centuries, with neither relationship providing the kind of government that would have helped Ukraine's people. Formed only in 1991 the Republic of Ukraine has a long history since 1500 of being part of Poland and Lithuania, and later part of Russia, with some parts of Ukraine under the Austrian Hapsburgs till 1900. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union in the 1920's to the 1950's in one phase in which it suffered badly with collectivization of agriculture under Communist Soviet leadership and famines. In the second phase of Soviet rule after the 1950's Ukraine made a dramatic recovery as Krushchev assumed control with Leonid Brezhnev who was from Ukraine. After 1964 Brezhnev ran the the Soviet Union till 1984 and this was a good period for Ukraine. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1990 and Russian leader Yeltsin separated Ukraine and Belarus to go their own ways as separate countries from Russia. For 1990-2000 Ukraine did badly losing about 60% of its GDP, a situation also experienced by Russia with economic instability. Russia recovered under Putin, yet Ukraine has struggled since because of mismanagement under different governments and widespread entrenched corruption.  Governments alternated in the period 2000 to 2020 between ones friendly to Russia and friendly to Poland and European Union. This happened in 2004 and again with protests in 2014. The protests in 2014 in Kiev and Lviv led to a government that favored closer ties with EU and NATO. It is this pendulum swing that is Ukraine's and Eastern Europe's experience in the 20th century and it continues into the 21st. What Russia wants is for Ukraine to not be a place for NATO operations, even if it is not allied to Russia after Russian president Putin was disappointed with the Russian allied government's performance under Yanukovich in the 2000-2014 period with corruption and mismanagement. France in the 16th and to 18th century is described by Brendan Simms of Cambridge in his new book on Europe, as needing the external danger for unity, and unity to meet external danger. This could be true also for Russia as the danger posed by NATO helps bring unity to Russia. And this could be a way to unify Russia and provide it with the confidence that it seeks in its effort for parity with the European Union and the US, China in the 21st century.   ...

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DW.com looks at the newly built in 2018 Kerch Bridge in Crimea and its importance for Ukraine and Russia. This bridge links Crimea to the Krasnodar Krai region of Russia in northern Caucasus. It cost $3.6 billion to build, runs for 19 kilometres, and is the longest bridge in Europe.It crosses the Kerch Strait that connects the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. 

It is the main route for supplies to Russian invasion forces in the Kherson region and one of only two rail freight routes connecting Russia to Crimea. 

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In August 2023 the Ukraine war is reduced to small unit tactics after a stalled Ukraine offensive. The results of the war over the last 2 years is a broadened NATO with Sweden and Finland inside NATO increasing the borders of NATO with Russia. On the Russian side some of eastern Ukraine on the Black Sea and the Dnieper river are now part of Russia in addition to the Crimea. The Ukraine offensive is stalled. Russia's economy has shifted from its western European orientation for energy exports and auto other imports to a Chinese orientation.  These changes are likely to remain with a shift of supply chains back from China and its suppliers to the US and the EU. This acts to restore the factory bases in the US and EU and revive communities built around factories in small towns across the region. This will bring back regions in the EU and the US that suffered from the loss of factory jobs and public services they supported. Overall this is a healthier situation for the people of Europe and the US. For China also the situation reverses to better quality yet slower growth, and a pause to take stock of the immense changes that happened with explosive growth in trade- the damage to the environment, floods and heat waves from climate change, the explosion in debt to three time its GDP, higher unemployment, rural poverty, and devise solutions to these problems. The war has accelerated the unraveling of the existing economic, social and trade arrangements that had stopped working for many years. ...

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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Germany will not be blackmailed. She rejected the idea that Russia is expanding its attacks on Ukraine in response to supply of longer range artillery from the US and Germany saying this was just "new propaganda from the Russian side."

Baerbock also said Germany needs to avoid a situation of being dependent on an aggressor for gas supply. Germany is now "very intensively" looking at its dependencies on China, said Baerbock. This is going to be  for "a sovereign European strategy of independence in critical infrastructure."

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Russia is planning an offensive in Ukraine, in the south and in the east, on multiple fronts.

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As the European leaders Starmer, Macron, Merz gather together, huddle together at meetings in London, Paris and Brussels, as the US under DJT and Rubio disengage from NATO and perceived expansion, Ariane Chemin gives this report and video in Le Monde on the situation in classrooms, around Square in the centrer of Kviv, at destroyed power plants, and at destroyed buildings in Kviv. Russian drone attacks on Kviv are leaving residents without electricity and without sleep. This is also what Europeans in France and Germany, and Britain, are seeing on news, video and on television.  The last peace initiative stalled after the hopes raised from the Alaska meeting of Putin and the US president. Efforts to get the Russians on board with US envoys in Moscow fail when the European leaders are absent in the talks, and when Russia insists on the 20% of the Donbass and eastern regions it does not control, and limits on Ukraine defense. Ukraine modifies the proposals and Russia insists on territorial concessions. A report in Germany's DW.com from Ukraine calls this "absurd." A new element emerges in this conflict in December 2025 when one sees this in the context of European history where such struggles between European powers happened repeatedly since 1500, with some of them in the period after 1700 involving Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Britain, France, Spain, Prussia and rest of Germany split into many states. That pattern has relevance today because when one power whether France, Austria-Hungary or Russia became dominant the other European powers acted together to keep the balance in Europe.  ...

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Russia is raising taxes on the rich, high earners and companies to keep military spending at levels not seen since the height of the Cold War of 6% of GDP. This is part of effort to keep the economy growing and standards of living stable as it pursues a long term policy of trying to push its borders further to the west in the Ukraine region and confront what it sees as unwarranted NATO expansion to its borders. Russia also with China's support is conducting its policy to show that it is undeterred by Sweden and Finland joining NATO or the early setbacks in its Ukraine war effort. This happens as China is moving to less strident positions in its relations with the EU and the US and working for some level of working relations on trade and economy with EU and the US as its economy slows down.

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The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, is at the center of talks for resolution of the crisis in Europe over Ukraine. Under the arrangement setup under OSCE with Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France as members the security arrangements in Europe are set forth- all nations as member states will respect each others national sovereignty. Russia's approach to settle its concerns about Ukraine joining NATO on its borders was to exclude European Union and deal with this entirely as a US Russia issue. For Europe turning to the OSCE emphasizes Europe's role to solve disputes in its own backyard. This opens up ways to bring all parties to the table for talks. This is because the US position remains firm not conceding on the point of Ukraine choosing its own future and foreign affairs, in effect preserving the right of all of Eastern Europe to choose its own future, something gained after the fall of the Soviet Union. The US approach is also to use an information war of sorts to deter invasion by saying an invasion is imminent. This places the ball right back in the European court in this war of nerves. ...

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Both sides cannot lose sight of the fact that about 1 million people have either lost lives or been injured in the 36 month Ukraine War. Population decline faced Ukraine and Russia before the war, the effects are now increased, depleting the available resources on all sides in this conflict during a pandemic. 

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Russian shadow fleet and about 80% of Russian oil now sanctioned after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil- Feb 2026. This is putting more oil onto a fleeet of vessels operating under Comoros, Sierra Leone and third nation flags, or even two flags, which the Americans and Europeans are tracking and diverting. Russia seeks to put this oil on an alternative tanker fleet it owns and which is insured by Russia, that goes from the Baltic and Black seas to the Mediterranean to refineries in Turkey, India and China. What thsi does is increases risks for Russia in shipping and for the Euroepans and Americans when ships fly Russian flags with military convoy. The overall effect of cutting Russian oil exports in addition to India committing to buy American oil and Venezuelan oil instead of Russian oil in its trade agreement with US, is that Russian economy may be in risky territory. Inflation is higher than official 6 percent at 16% interest rates, and this increases the risk. Budget needs within Russia may not be met as this continues. It is in Russia's interest now to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, now that the US has moved away from NATO/Europe to peaceful cooperation with Russia and competition with China. ...

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Ukraine's electricity grid makes it though a tough winter with frequent Russian missile attacks that led to power cutbacks throughout Ukraine. Kviv residents had only 4 hours of electricity and heat, water were also cut off for hours as the winter progressed. With better more advanced defense systems the attacks are fewer now, and the power grid is being repaired. Large transformers and other spare parts are being sent to Ukraine for the repairs. Ukraine is now able to resume exports of electricity in April 2023 showing that the worst of the electricity grid crisis is over.

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With Ukraine unwilling to give up the Donbass and Germany/France/UK wanting to prevent Russian favored deal adverse for Europe, US focus on Monroe Doctrine and western hemisphere, Ukraine Russia war is likely to drag on. This is what one sees in Merz, Zelensky, Rubio speeches at the Munich Security conference. In 2026 Germany+ (that includes France and the UK) does not see it in the interests of Europe to allow a Ukraine capitulation to Russian attacks and Germany has already allocated funds to rebuild its military to prevent this from affecting Germany+ interests in Europe. Even though the winter attacks on Ukraine grid and electricity infrastructure leaves Kviv and other cities in a dire situation it appears that without the 20 year security guarantee or something solid Ukraine is not willing to sign an agreement which it fears Russia could turn around and start the war again. Germany+ which is the position of the major parties in Germany 60-70 % of voters for the SDP, CDU, Greens and others except AfD with 20-30% of voters. (AfD may have reached a ceiling as CDU under Merz is tough on migrants). Which means about 70% of Germans will support a policy of joining UK and France in resisting Russian attacks. Russia may have lost so much in manpower may see the war as a vindication only if it can hold onto the Donbass which may make it harder to reach a deal. Zelensky says Ukrainians live there and is unwilling to leave the Donbas region. The net result is that Germany+ and Ukraine are not likely to concede ground, the US reluctant to commit to 20 year security condition for Ukraine as it focuses energy on the western hemisphere and the fentanyl, drug traffickers in Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia, and their support structures in Cuba, in addition to Iran and China's plan on Taiwan sees limits to what it can do beyond limiting oil's funding the Russian attacks. It is amisrepresentation to say that the US is the cause, as everything changed the moment China became an industrial power with the help of US business interests and returned to its own story of being subject to British and Japanese incursions in the 19th and 20th centuries, and sensing that it is an industrial power in its own right by 2020 and insisting on framing its own policy in the world. Europe always had its own narrative since 1600 long before the US became an industrial power under Teddy Roosevelt in 1904. In that narrative which now plays out again different European powers band together to prevent any dominant power in Europe (Russia in 2026) from gaining dominance. ...

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Ukraine's efforts to repair a power grid damaged by Russian missile and drone attacks as the Ukraine war enters its final stages before a settlement of some sort is reached.

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Steps the US has taken to not let the war escalate even as it arms Ukraine to be able to defend itself. The goal being to defend Ukraine and seek a settlement as quickly as possible with Russia. Biden, Macron and Scholz have talked to Putin in the last few weeks as the winter war drags on with no one gaining from this war. 

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A look at the views of Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and Strobe Talbott, a State Department advisor, on how the Obama administration missed signals of a more assertive policy from Russia during the period Medvedev was president. At the time Medvedev offered a softer tone from Russia and the U.S. extended cooperation. With the return of Putin as president for a second term, his more strident views on the role of Russia in the world following the collapse of the Soviet Union have emerged, especially in tems of policies in Syria and Ukraine.

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Hear the complete speech of German Chancellor Scholz to an extraordinary session of the German Parliament on DW.com. This may be the most important speech in the last 30 years of German history since reunification. An extraordinary speech that sets the tone for the new Europe that Germany leads with its partners in the European Union. Fundamentally Scholz tells the German people that Germany is fighting alongside Europe for its freedom and democracy, so that the last 30 years of peace are seen not as an exception in history. Germany will not let Putin take us back to the imperial wars of the 19th century, Putin told parliament. Scholz tells the German people sending arms to Ukraine "was the only response possible to Russian aggression." He also tells them that it was not the Russian people, it was Putin who had launched this aggression. "This is Putin's War. Putin is destroying the European security structure." "A peaceful free Europe, we will defend it." This is the way Scholz finished his speech. Scholz outlined 5 actions Germany was taking including actions on investing $100 billion in Bundeswehr armed forces, in strengthening NATO capabilities, in building up Germany's technological capabilities, in 2 huge natural gas terminals. The entire German parliament stood up to applaud for a long time as Scholz described how Germany was with the Russian people who braved arrest to protest Putin's War, and there are many, many, Russians who do not support the war. Reconciliation with Russia remains a building block of German policy he said.   ...

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Three tankers held off the coast of Mumbai by India's Cost Guard have been sanctioned for carrying Iranian oil. India stopped buying Iranian oil in DJT's first term 2016-2020. In his second term DJT wanted India to stop buying sanctioned Russian oil as a way to reduce funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine now in its fourth year. India has stopped buying Russian oil as part of the goodwill effort to reach trade agreements with the US, EU, and Germany. The seizing of the oil tankers is part of a new effort by India to support bringing Russia to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine war. Russia has demanded Ukraine turn over Donetsk region to end the war, which is a major stumbling block as Ukraine says there are Ukrainians living in Donetsk region. Germany's increase in its defense budget and investment in its armed forces has led to Germany+ (Germany plus UK and France) acting as the chief supporter of Ukraine, after the US has taken more of a neutral stand. The US basically wanting to end the war in 2026 so that the US can address the situation in the western hemisphere with drug and migrant trafficking gangs in Mexico, Venezuela and Columbia, and rebuild its economy to bring back manufacturing from China. For India the guiding principle of its foreign policy is Gandhiji's thinking and advice for fairness and peaceful coexistence - it does not believe in a British inspired NATO expanding on the borders of Russia, and at the same time does not see how a war on a neighboring Russian speaking region is in Russia's continued interest for a fourth year with bombing of energy infrastructure to leave Kviv in darkness. Non -alignment was Nehru's not Gandhiji's idea- the ideas of respect and fairness are basic to Gandhiji's thinking and India will remain true to his ideas in world relations. One aspect of this change in world affairs is missed by all and the media, that is that with the EU and US+ Japan, and India+ Indonesia there is a population of 1 billion of western peoples, and about 2 billion of Asian peoples, for a total of 3 billion people. This is a region three times the size of China, which with its access to capital and technology, labour and good governance is in a position to industrialize and reindustrialize, and bring manufacturing/science and technology to the core of this economic region by 2035. An industrialized India with 2X-3X the size of its current GDP will still be governed on Gandhiji's ideas for world relations in 2047. ...

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Israeli attack on South Pars Field and Iranian response with attack on Qatar North Field- this happens on March 18, 2026. About 10% of total global oil supplies are affected about 7 million barrels a day. Attacks on oil facilities and fields are a different order of magnitude compared to closure of Straits of Hormuz, as oil tankers can still deliver the oil when it is safe to cross the sea passage. Attacks on oil fields and facilities will take a long time to repair. The US president calls on Israel to stop such attacks. The Pars gas field supplies homes in Iran and is used for fertilizer production in Iran. It also supplies Turkey which would have to get alternative supplies from Russia or on the world market.Oil briefly hits $116 a barrel before settling at $96. The situation resembles the one in Ukraine when Ukraine grain production could not be sent from the Black Sea ports to Europe and Middle Eastern countries like Turkey, Egypt and Morocco, and fertilizer exports could not be sent to Asia. The Russian attacks on Ukraine ports led to global shortages of fertilizer and grain. ...

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Ukrainians, Russians overseas, and Russians at home, faceoff in postings on social media Facebook and other media. The discussion gets acrimonious. Ukrainian musicians in Berlin with a following in Russia from Soviet times protest Russian policy towards Ukraine and find themselves confronting Russian friends.

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G-7 leaders meeting in Italy agree on a $50 billion loan to Ukraine using interest on $300 billion of Russian assets that are frozen in the EU.

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This report from Germany in DW.com says Germany tried to build a softer relationship with Russia during the leadership of Adenauer of CDU and  Brandt of SPD. This continued under Schmidt and Schroeder. Under Merkel of CDU the emotional aspect of the relationship as Russia retreated from Bolshevism and Soviet Union collapsed was lost. Little attention was paid to East Germany and to how the fall of the Soviet Union had affected Russia negatively,and became purely focused on German industry and trade with cheap Russian gas supplies. Even as Germany did not invest in shared burden for defense with the US, and Germany under Merkel increased dependence on Russian gas supplies to 55% with the Nordstream gas pipeline from Russia, and shut down nuclear energy.  As a result the emotional or mental health aspect of the relationship with Russia of Germany was lost under Merkel. The focus on purely financial aspect of things has been proved wrong both for the economy as physical infrastructure was neglected under Merkel and social infrastructure such as child care and other social aspects of society were sorely neglected. A new broader framework that needs to be built will have to keep this in mind.  All the hard work and good intentions of the Adenauer and Brandt years has been lost with the short sighted basis of relations based purely on finance and trade under Merkel's leadership. This happened also in the US relationship with China with the relations based purely on finance and trade under Clinton, Bush, Obama proving to be too fragile as they did not protect other social aspects within the two countries as inequality widened and whole segments of society were neglected.  ...