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Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the German parliament is realistic about the prospects of Minsk 2, after the failure of Minsk 1, which was negotiated in the Belarus capital Minsk in September 2014. The Russians have the upper hand militarily and the demarcation line moves further to the west in current negotiations in Minsk. The breakdown in Minsk 1 comes as Putin continues to support the separatists in Ukraine, who declared a Donestsk People's Republic with elections held recently, and have now taken territory to make their positions in eastern Ukraine more defensible. The war could end there with a de facto split of eastern Ukraine on the Russian side, or lead to further guessing of Russian president Putin's intentions if the conflict continues. Italy's foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni, points out that arms aid by the U.S. to Ukraine would only fail as Russia could respond, and it gives the Russian president the added advantage of the narrative that the U.S. and NATO are a threat to Russia at its borders. All sides say they respect the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine, but the fact remains that Ukraine is deeply divided with the eastern region bordering Russia having close ties to Russia, and the western region near Poland having strong ties to a newly emergent EU that includes much of Eastern Europe. Prudence and restraint is needed on all sides for a settlement. ...

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The parliamentary elections in Britain have changed the environment in which the first day of Brexit talks took place on June 19, 2017. There is a great deal of uncertainty as the government of Theresa May has only a thin majority in parliament. A debate is now taking place on how much support Brexit has after the parliamentary election, and what kind of Brexit should take place, what are the risks and uncertainties for Britain. As expected the European Union negotiator Michael Barnier emphasized that some issues have to be resolved first- that Britain owes the European Union between 40 to 60 billion euros over 5 years, the rights of EU citizens in Britain, for the beneficiaries of EU policies and for the impact on borders particularly in Ireland.  Only then would the EU discuss access to the EU market for Britain. Mr Barnier handed British negotiator David Davis a hiking stick, a way of saying this will be a long hike up the mountain. In Britain there is a growing sense that the talks cannot be completed by the current deadline in 2019, that it might take 5 years. Another hurdle- Britain cannot have access to the single market if it seeks to control immigration. For the European Union there is the additional problem of how to negotiate with a government that may not be there in a few months, say experts. For the European Union Brexit is now more of a distraction, as there are other issues that rank higher such as relations with the Trump administration, NATO and Russia, refugees and borders.       ...

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This letter in the New York Times questions the wisdom of the NYT report that Mr. Rosenstein suggested in 2017 Justice Department meetings the need for invoking the 25th Amendment for the removal of the U.S. president Trump. It says this would lead to departure of Mr. Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General and leaves the Mueller investigation into Russian interference in U.S. elections without support from the Justice Department. Mr. Rosenstein says today he does not see a need for the invoking of the 25th Amendment

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A CNN story on Senate investigators looking into a meeting between Anthony Scaramucci, a member of Trump's transition team, and an executive of a Russian investment fund, is retracted. Three CNN employees resigned, including Harris its investigations editor, as the story could not be reliably verified. The errors in reporting are a result of intense pressure to come up with new breaking news stories, as CNN competes with other news providers such as the Washington Post and the New York Times. Paul Farhi cites other errors at CNN. CNN.com shows the work of the CNN investigative team of about 30 thirty journalists. It has come up with other stories on Russia and the U.S. election of 2016 which have been verified. Farhi points out that the stories have led to record ratings and profits for CNN. On of the journalists who resigned was Eric Lichtblau, a veteran reporter who worked earlier for the New York Times.

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Exceptional reporting in the Washington Post on the meddling in the U.S. election by Russia and president Putin. This report provides some inside details on how the issue was handled by Trump during the period before and after the election based on 50 interviews with Trump connected officials. According to the report Trump treated any thought that he was elected by factors other than his charisma and personality as an affront. When confronted with evidence from intelligence reports by U.S. spy chiefs on Jan. 6 at Trump Tower, Trump railed at the idea that he could not have won the election without outside help. Trump's larger than life personality made him take on the challenge of winning the president from outside with unconventional tactics. Here the same larger than life personality and ego conflicts with the effort of Republican advisers who sought to put the Russian issue behind them by accepting the findings of the intelligence community.

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The Economist looks at the summary of the Mueller Report. The special counsel did not find that the Trump campaign was in collusion with the Russian government in its interference in the 2016 election. 

The Economist points out that Mr. Mueller accomplished the task of cleaning political campaigns of corruption and other questionable behaviour. In the case of Mr. Manafort campaign manager, and Roger Stone, the president's lawyer, Mr. Mueller's investigation set the precedent of how such investigations would take place in the future.  The investigation also looked into candidates business interests, including building a skyscraper in Moscow. This editorial says Mr. Mueller's conduct was exemplary.

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Steven Lee Myers provides an exceptionally good report from Russia on the 2014 Sochi Olympics. He describes an effort by the Putin administration in Russia to develop Sochi which extends for 90 miles along the Black Sea, the only subtropical seashore in Russia. Here Myers interviews Pakhomov, a Putin supporter, who is Mayor of Sochi, to get a picture of how Putin supporters see this effort. Pakhomov says this part of Russia was never developed and foreigners have a poor view of Russia, with one westerner telling him that Russia had little except vodka and bears. For the first time the entire Sochi areas has seen a massive infrastructure effort with roads, railways and a new airport. Myers gets a different picture from Yulia Naberezhnaya, a scientist who is a Putin critic and environmental leader in the Western Caucusus, who he interviews after meeting at a bus stop in Sochi. Naberezhnaya heads Environmental Watch of the North Caucusus which sees the environmental laws being ignored in construction work. The country is divided with nationalistic feeling running high before the Olympics, and a friend of Naberezhnaya finding herself on the opposite side with work in the security services. She warns her to be careful- something Naberezhnaya says has Kafkesque overtones. Myers also meets Boris Nemtsov, a senior official in the Yeltsin government, who participated in street protests during the recent elections in Russia, and is critical of the money spent in this Olympics. Estimates of the money spent run as high as $51 billion, in comparison the Olympics in Beijing, China cost about $40 billion. Dmitri Chernyshenko, president of the Sochi Olympics Organizing Committee sees the project as one that unites the nation, while critics such as Nemtsov see it as a huge overspending and corruption favoring Putin's friends in the business community. Myers is acting Moscow Bureau Chief for the NYT and has done extensive interviewing for this report, including an interview with Vladimir Yakunin, head of Soviet Railways. Yakunin says his company's investment of $1.3 billion will take 20 years to recover but puts it on the scale of the Trans-Siberian Railway build by Czar Nicholas II, which helped bring Russia its current borders reaching to the Far East. And yet the question of cost is never far from people's minds, coming at a time when growth is slowing in Russia- emerging markets currency values incluing the ruble are declining and they are having a tough time attracting foreign investment. A member of the International Olympic Committee, Gian-Franco Kasper, is reported to have told Swiss SRF radio that about a third of the spending on Sochi was lost because of corruption and excessive costs....

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It is hard to imagine that one is even writing about this, as shocking as it is- the 4 or 5 minutes between a decision to launch nuclear weapons and the end of life on this planet earth as we know it. Here Sam Nunn, a U.S. senator who was part of the negotiations for arms control and who is the leading American in this field talks about the unimaginable danger. He says the strategy from the Cold War where Russia and the U.S. put their nuclear forces in a position to be launched within minutes, 4 to 5 minutes, is outdated and needs to be changed. Hillary Clinton described the issue in the television debate. Yet this was not discussed because of the nature of the 2016 presidential election with lack of serious discussion.  And both Nunn and Clinton emphasize that once the missiles are in the air they cannot be ordered to go back. Accidental error, judgemental error, informational error in which one side thinks the other has launched a missile, a firing by mistake, are possible. In this situation Nunn says Trump is temperamentally unfit, and Clinton is fit to take on the responsibility. Yet the question this raises is as Nunn signals- is anyone but God fit to make this decision to launch nuclear weapons. Nunn says it is outdated and wrong to have only a few minutes, as such a decision cannot be made in a few hours or days, much less in 5 minutes. Nunn brings up a discussion he had in Moscow when he brought this up with Russians and president Putin. Russian president Putin told Nunn that he was fully aware of this. Putin's response was- "Senator Nunn, at some point it becomes automatic."  Nunn does not clarify what this means, or what Putin means to say. For people on the planet it is not enough to have Reagan, Gorbachev, Clinton, as Nunn mentions being responsible people for a nuclear decision. The current state of affairs is simply shocking and the lack of attention to this is also shocking. Equally dangerous is that 20 countries have weapons usable nuclear material, and sophisticated hacking of command and control processes is another danger.       ...

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Chancellor Scholz made increasing the minimum wage a key plank in his election platform. The German parliament passed a bill increasing the minimum wage to 12 euros ($12.90) per hour as of October 1- an increase of 2.18 euros per hour. The increase will mean 400 euros extra per month for people with a monthly income of 1700 euros.  Chancellor Scholz wrote on Twitter "Many citizens in our country work a lot but earn little- that must change." "For me, one of the most important laws and a question of respect." The bill passed by a wide margin with 400 in favor, 41 against, and 200 abstentions from the CDU/CSU. CDU says Scholz bypassed a commission that sets the wage increase. Unions and other parties rejected that saying the bill will reduce poverty in Germany. The Merkel years will be remembered for the lack of attention to essential infrastructure, to digitalization, and to workers and families. Mr. Scholz and the Greens under Habeck and Baerbock are working to reverse years of wanton neglect of essential needs. In fact much of the increase will go to pay for additional cost of food and energy that is a result of Russia's invasion. Merkel and her predecessor Schroeder pursued policy that led to Germany's extreme dependence on Russia for energy resulting in the jump in energy prices today. France and Britain are also taking action to provide additional income to workers to offset the higher cost of energy and food. ...

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French parliamentary election first round results show Macron's party neck and neck with the left parties bloc led by Jean Luc Melenchon. Melenchon is shown in polls to be slightly ahead. The second round of the election is on June 19. Macron is unlikely to have a majority and may need the support of the centre right Les Republicains. The voter demographic of the Macron party and the Les Republicains is older voters, centre right, who tend to vote in larger numbers than younger voters. Voter abstention is high with 48% of the voters having voted in the first round and shows deep voter dissatisfaction with the political elites in France. Before Macron two one term presidents led the government- Sarkozy of the Les Republicains and Hollande of the Socialist party. Macron was Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs minister in the Socialist party Hollande government before he formed his own party in April 2016 months before the election calling for a revitalization of French politics away from the two leading parties. His party was named Le Republique En Marche with younger people not connected to traditional parties.   Macron won a second term with the help of Mr. Melenchon's socialist supporters. Melenchon called for not a single vote for Marie Le Pen the far right candidate in the second round of the presidential election. Melenchon and Marie Le Pen were neck and neck in the first round.  Within Macron's party Louis Philippe a popular prime minister leads a faction that Macron will need to negotiate with in addition to Mr. Melenchon for parliamentary support. There is also a situation of cohabitation that would happen if Mr. Melenchon wins a majority in the National Assembly. Melenchon says the results in the first round "offer an extraordinary opportunity for the destiny of the common homeland to defeat the disastrous politics of the majority, of Macron." In 1997-2002 France went through cohabitation with the president and prime minister from different parties. Lionel Jospin was prime minister with Jacques Chirac as president. Yellow vest protests in 2018, gilets jaunes, were a result of increase in automobile fuel prices and the cost of living, and the general sense of dissatisfaction with policies of president Macron that were seen as not favoring workers and families finding it hard to make ends meet. The working class vote and vote of younger people is evenly split between the far right of Marie Le Pen which does well in rural areas, and the socialists under Melenchon in working class districts of larger cities. In providing support for the European Union and traditional French foreign policy, Macron and the socialist parties have common ground compared to the anti- EU policies of Le Pen resulting in votes cast for Macron that were really for melenchjon in the presidential election in which Macron secured a second term. Cohabitation then offers the popular alternative for a prime minister such as Melenchon for domestic policy and a president in the form of Macron for foreign policy at a critical time for Europe with the EU response to Russia including the embargo. ...

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Former FBI chief Comey tells the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee that he had turned over all his memos of conversations with president Trump to Special Counsel Mueller. It would be for Mueller to examine this for possibility obstruction of justice. Comey said Mueller would have to "try and understand what the intention was there and whether that's an offense." The matter relates to an FBI probe into Mr. Flynn, a Trump adviser, during the 2016 election year for ties to Russia.

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Venezuela faces an uncertain future after U.S. efforts to support Mr. Guaido and call for new free and fair elections have failed. With help from Russia the Venezuelan economy is showing signs of recovery from the steep decline and high inflation in 2019. Oil production is expected to reach 1 million barrels a day in 2020 after falling to 650,000- 700,000 barrels a day in 2019. Russia's oil company Rosneft provides critical help for Venezuelan oil sales and maintenance in oil fields.  National Security Adviser John Bolton is faulted for his advice to president Trump on Venezuela, that merely voicing support for 36 year old Guaido, would lead to regime change without action from the U.S. With the recovery in Venezuela with help from Russia and Cuba, Mr. Guaido's popularity has dropped by 20 points to 38%, according to a Venezuelan pollster Datanalisis. Most Cubans and Venezuelans in the U.S. are in Florida where there is support for new elections, and Mr. Trump continues to support Mr. Guaido. The lack of support for change from other countries including Europe, India, Turkey, and Mexico have led to a stalled situation in Venezuela. There is concern for the steep inflation, the migration of about 4.5 million Venezuelans, the shortages of critical supplies as a result of the economic collapse in 2019. The situation is stabilizing for the government yet the future of Venezuela with U.S. sanctions and weak economy leaves Venezuela in a precarious situation. Venezuela continues to be an example of how well meaning changes for social justice can lead to political changes that bring about economic collapse. This happens  when business and the economy flounder under mismanagement and corruption under crony socialism, a variant of crony capitalism. The old capitalist class and the privileged families who ran the country under its old two party system are gone. Replaced with a new class. The trying out of untested economic ideas in the quest for social balance leads to economic mismanagement, loss of critical human resources which leave the country, and a higher degree of poverty with shortages than before.  Today in Latin America Brazil shows how allowing generous pension benefits at the expense of basic needs and public services in the budget can hurt the economy. Argentina's overborrowing once again shows how this leads to IMF loans and harsh economic austerity. Chile shows how not financing pensions and public services can lead to collapse of public confidence and riots. Venezuela shows how the quest for social justice and reducing privilege can itself get flawed, leading to mass migration of as many as 4.5 million citizens. This happens under models that vary from free enterprise models to socialist or nationalist models showing that models can be less relevant than good sense and good management. In the beginning and for some time each of these models worked well, commodity price supported booms concealed real problems. Avoiding extremes, prudent spending, good investment and hard work, investment in education and infrastructure, building consensus, and good management, is critical for the future to avoid the bad outcomes facing much of Latin America. A lesson also for Asian and African countries that basic virtue is more important than socialism or free enterprise or nationalism when it comes to development.   ...

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Russian president Putin tells the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera, before his visit to Italy, that the failure to carry out the agreement of Feb. 2015 called Minsk II- following the eruption in fighting at Debaltseve and Mariupol in eastern Ukraine- is because of the Poroshenko government in Kiev. He called on the U.S. and Europe to pressure the government in Kiev. The Ukrainian position is that the local elections cannot move forward until pro-Russian fighters and weapons are withdrawn, and the control of the border with Russia is given back to Ukraine. As western sanctions on Russia over intervention in Ukraine are coming up for renewal at a meeting of the G-7, Putin said he was committed to the Minsk II agreement for autonomy to be given to the region of the Luhatsk and Donetsk republics, which were established in the east with Russian assistance. Putin told the newspaper in an interview: "The document we agreed upon in Minsk, called Minsk II, is the best agreement and perhaps the only unequivocal solution to this problem. We would never have agreed upon it if we had not considered it to be right, just and feasible. On our part, we take every effort, and will continue to do so, in order to influence the authorites of the unrecognized, self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics. But not everything depends on us. Our European and U.S. partners should exert influence on the current Kiev administration, We do not have the power, as Europe and the U.S. do, to convince Kiev to carry out everything that was agreed on in Minsk." That the two sides are far apart on issues is shown by Ukraine president Poroshenko's position that for an election to take place for implementing decentralization in the eastern region of Donetsk and Luhansk - "It is impossible to provide the election when the bandits and terrorists with guns are on the street. This is not free and not fair." Putin's position is that " Specifically there needs to be a constitutional reform to ensure the autonomous rights of the unrecognized republics. The Kiev authorites do not want to call it autonomy- they prefer different terms, such as decentralization. Our European partners, those very partners who wrote the corresponding clause in the Minsk agreements, explained what should be understood as decentralization. It gives them the right to speak their language, to have their own cultural identity and engage in cross-border trade- nothing special beyond the civilized understanding of ethnic minorities' rights in any European country." ...

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Russian president Putin was hoping for an end to sanctions. The interference in the 2016 election was done with the hope that a Trump administration could make a difference in the sanctions after the deterioration of relations in the last year of president Obama.The U.S. Congress has moved to extend the sanctions, with Democrats and Republicans coming together on this issue. This means there is not much that president Trump can do to improve relations. This report in the NYT by David Sanger even goes as far as citing George Kennan from Foreign Affairs publication in 1947, that a "long term, patient but firm and vigilant, containment of Russian expansive tendencies," is likely to be U.S.policy.

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Immigration and drug flows became an explosive issue in the US by 2016, yet between 2016-2024 Venezuelan people outflows added up to 7.1 million migrants including about 1 million to the US, as Venezuela collapsed and Russia intervened to keep the regime.   None of this could have happened with major powers US Russian cooperation. The Monroe Doctrine of president Monroe, 1824, warned European powers to not restore colonial influence in the Americas. By 2024 Syria sent 14 million of its population to Europe, and Venezuela sent 7.7 million migrants to Colombia, Brazil, and the US, as their economies and democratic institutions collapsed. Missing was working cooperation with another military power Russia. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Western financial interests, failed to grasp the importance of US Russia cooperation and mutual respect. Obama denigrated Russia as insignificant because of its GDP.   Russia intervened in failing states but gained little, straining the good relations mutual respect from earlier periods of its history and interactions with the US.  DJT tariff on all importers of Venezuelan oil affect China to which Venezuela sent 55% of its oil exports over half a million barrels a day. It also affects India and other importers. These importers say experts, will shift to Russian crude preferring it to heavy oil from Venezuela. This is a sore point for Americans affected by violent crime from Venezuelan gang members reflected in recent election results. This also affects the sense of safety in American neighborhoods and in towns across America. The Linken Riley Act was passed in the US Congress as action on this issue. People in China, India, and in Europe, and some even in Silicon Valley in the US fail to grasp the way this has affected communities across the US when after decades of deindustrialization and shipping jobs overseas by American business, these communities are affected by a sense of lack of safety in their neighborhoods. There is also a failure to grasp the harm done by migration of 7.7 million people from Venezuela, almost a fourth of the country's population, because of mismanagement of the economy and crippling inflation, and the failure of democratic institutions to function effectively. A failure to grasp the extent of the economic and human disaster in Venezuela. DJT says- "Venezuela has been very hostile to the US and the Freedoms which we espouse...Venezuela has "purposefully and deceitfully sent to the United States, undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals".    ...

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This report by David Sanger of the NYT shows how the Russia sanctions that president Putin hoped to remove are likely to remain in place and somewhat expanded. Russia's economy has seen slow growth of 1% as a result of a fall in foreign investment. This is likely to continue, says Sanger. American investment in privatization will be restricted to not more than $10 million, and the investments in Nord Stream pipeline are affected. Russia needs foreign investment in its economy, and this is affected. Sanger points out that even if president Trump and Secretary of State Tillerson preferred the option of having presidential authority to lift sanctions to improve relations with Russia, this now runs into Congressional opposition. At the Aspen Security Forum in mid July, Dan Coats and Mike Pompeo, senior intelligence officials in the administration, said that there was an effort to influence the U.S. election. The problems started with the opposition movement in Ukraine, leading to the collapse of the government in 2014. Before this Russia- U.S. relations followed the trajectory set early in the Putin first  and second term of improving the economy by forging better relations with the EU and the U.S. This resulted in a stronger economy and more foreign investment. Things deteriorated after the Ukraine issue came into prominence. For the U.S., the EU and Russia, an inability to come to a better understanding and resolve differences on Ukraine has created a downward trajectory, that has not benefited any of the countries involved.   ...

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The expected EU turnout in 2024 is at a high of 68 percent. Over the years since its formation the early enthusiasm and vision was replaced by dry directives issued by bureaucrats in Brussels leading to lethargy. 1979's 62 percent voter turnout contrasts with 2014's 48% voter turnout. Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have each in their way created new surge of interest in EU and the parliament in Strasbourg, says Caroline Gruyter from her conversations in France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Czech Republic. Today 74% of EU citizens polled say they support the European Union. Similar numbers even in the UK as Labor party is about to come back in a big way.  What happened? The war in Ukraine, Russia and NATO, US and NATO, the UK drift back to EU in sentiment, Italy's conservative parties called Right wing are supporting the EU under Meloni. Another reason for the sense of EU coming back to life comes from my visit to Germany, where after decades of disinvestment in infrastructure the rail station in Frankfurt is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is being built all over the city. Posters all over Frankfurt for EU parliament elections show a new spirit for Respect for workers, working families, and a sense that the FDP, SPD, CDU and Greens can take the decisions to give new vigor to the German democratic process.    ...