LyrArc Article Gist
Labour party in Britain is removing a never used anti-labour minimum services law that tended to worsen industrial relations and make it difficult to negotiate and resolve disputes over wages and conditions. The minimum services restricted the ability of 5.5 million workers to negotiate wage increases- it affected ambulance services, fire and rescue, teachers and rail services, border security to take industrial action, by requiring that a minimum level of service had to be provided. It was adversarial in nature and Angela Rayner call its effect as "poisoning industrial relations." We’re consigning it to history,” she said. “Scrapping this toxic legislation is our first step in ending the scorched-earth approach that has blocked negotiation and compromise to resolve disputes and prevent disruption." “This government’s new deal will create a new partnership between business, trade unions and working people and is fundamental to our growth mission.” A White Hall (British Civil Service) source says it was never used, Business did not want it, the legislation never worked, and Britain still lost more days to strike action than France or Spain. He says "it is the first major step in terms of resetting our relationship with the trade unions of this government." Jonathan Reynolds the Secretary for Business and Trade says- "The strikes act has not worked; it was a gimmick which inflamed tensions and only made serious negotiations harder, ultimately harming our public services and economy. It is telling that no single business ever used this pointless legislation. Putting an end to costly strikes that impact people’s day-to-day lives is key to getting our economy moving again and ending the chaos for our public finances.” ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Angela Rayner, Secretary of Housing and deputy prime minister, removed the "beauty" requirement that was unnecessary and blocking new housing development in Britain. 62% of Britons support the aggressive housebuilding program of Labour government, 9% don't know and only 29% are opposed. Britain has a crisis in housing with a shortage of 4 million homes and 20% price increases in housing. Rayner's response on the change in the wording of housing requirements set by the government-  "This is ridiculous. Beautiful is so subjective. Actually, within the planning framework, there is a lot of specifications about in keeping with the local [environment]. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder anyway. It’s actually about [being] in keeping with the area, it’s about protecting nature and having access to nature, it’s about making sure that buildings are safe, they’re warm, they’re sustainable. So there’s a number of guidelines and rules that a developer has to follow. Beautiful? Beautiful means nothing really, it means one thing to one person and another thing to another." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
With 5.7 million jobs lost since December 2007 fewer people are paying payroll taxes to support Medicare and Social Security says Labor Secretary Solis. As aresult Medicare will run out of funds by 2017, 2 years earlier than predicted last year. Medicare and Social Security issued their annual report yesterday, suggesting the nation cannot afford the cost of Medicare at the rate of current expenditure growth. Social Security will run out of money by 2037 four years earlier than predicited before. The only way to keep Medicare solvent says Mr Geithner is to reduce the rate of growth of health care costs.

LyrArc Article Gist
As the deadline of July 22 approaches for the 160,000 members of the UK Conservative Party to elect a leader, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and the current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt are running for the leadership position. Boris Johnson has 68% member support with Hunt at 23%, according to YouGov survey. Both candidates are in favor of Britain leaving the European Union without an agreement. Hunt has stated he would cancel leave for Britain's 16,000 civil servants in August to prepare for the departure of Britain from the EU by October 31.  Only 27% of Conservative Party members believe Mr. Hunt can do the preparation needed for an abrupt exit after 45 years of economic integration with the European Union. By contrast 90% of members think Johnson would do the preparation needed. Preparation is needed because of food and medical supplies trucks and in flights awaiting customs at border points. The result could be chaotic without adequate preparation. Under a Johnson government many ministers would leave the government including Mr. Hammond who runs the finance ministry. He is expected to join rebel ranks in the Conservative Party that does not think an abrupt exit like this is good for Britain. If these members in the House of Commons join Labour party members they could vote to block this from happening. Britain's opposition Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn has finally decided to call for a second referendum if Johnson pushes to leave the EU abruptly, and to campaign wholeheartedly this time for staying inside the EU. During the last referendum Labour leaders did not push hard for Remain, and David Cameron as prime minister and head of the Conservatives proved to be a weak and ineffective leader using the promise of a referendum as a ploy to win votes for the Conservatives in an earlier election and then finding himself stuck with promises made in the election with his party's right wing led by Johnson. Years of austerity policies promoted by Germany in the EU after a flawed entry of southern European countries with faulty not transparent finances such as Greece too early  into the eurozone had soured Britons on the EU. The friendly migration policies of German leader Merkel for economic as well as war torn country migrants from North Africa finally not just soured Germans on Merkel policies but also soured British working class families struggling to make ends meet and seeing migration as taking British resources that were needed at home. This has split most of Europe including Britain along lines of the major cities and the rural areas plus smaller towns, and in Eastern Europe, East Germany region along the lines of the old Soviet bloc countries which with deeply conservative thinking do not favor such migration policies. These divisive changes have taken place over along period of decades and will take time to heal through economic recovery and a fairer distribution of wealth, better investment in infrastructure, health, education, public services, neglected during the Tech driven flawed investment diversion of economic resources. Yet the hope of this type of change if grasped by Britons as well as Europeans could bring new life and revive the vision of a Europe with shared benefits for all Europeans, not just a French-German project. For this to happen new leaders have to rise to the challenge inside Britain and the rest of Europe.      ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Jorg Asmussen, Germany's representative on the ECB'S Executive Board, will take the position of deputy secretary in the Labor Ministry in the new coalition government of Angela Merkel with the SDP. He moves to Berlin from Frankfurt to be close to his two small children and family, who continued to live in Berlin after Asmussen moved to Frankurt ECB headquarters. Germany is likely to nominate Sabine Lautenschlager, member of the executive board of the Bundesbank, to Asmussen's position on the executive board of the ECB. The ECB Governing Council, including the six member executive board and the heads of 17 central banks, will now have the first female member. Ms. Lautenschlager's expertise is in banking regulation, which is relevant today because of the ECB's new role as regulator of banks in the eurozone. Asmussen, who is from the SDP, assumes a position under Labor minister Andrea Nahles. He will be responsible for introduction of the national minimum wage, which was a key demand of the SDP for joining the coalition with Merkel....

LyrArc Article Gist
Jeremy Corbyn is reelected leader of the Labor Party with the support of young people. He is seen here from the European viewpoint as a disaster for Britain. The parliamentary group of the Labor Party opposes Corbyn, and is critical of him for not supporting the Brexit no vote the way he should have. Corbyn did not come out strongly in favor of staying in the EU, giving it a 7.5 out of 10 score when asked how he would rate the EU. Only a fifth of British voters support the idea of Corbyn as prime minister. He is good at bringing people's concerns for attention at prime minister's questions, rides a bicycle to work, and is honest about his convictions. Yet this is not enough to be effective as a leader of the opposition who lacks the support of his party's members in parliament. Corbyn has also dropped people with different opinions from the leadership in the Labor party in a nasty fight with people who disagree with him, which is bad for the Labor Party. This has weakened Labor to the point where it cannot function as an effective Opposition Party, especially now that Britain enters Brexit negotiations and needs an opposition to act as a check on the government's policies. The Economist magazine in London shares these concerns in an editorial. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
An alarming rise in mental health condition about 50% higher than before the pandemic is causing a surge in UK Disability Benefit costs. Wes Streeting, Secretary of Health and Social Care says there is overtreatment for mental health in hospitals and clinics. An overmedicalizing of everyday problems, is how The Times describes it. Streeting says- “Definitely … over diagnosis” and people being described as mental health patients when benefit can be gained from training in “resilience and coping skills”. UK Disability sickness benefits jumped from 46 billion pounds to 65 billion in five years from 2019 to 2025. By 2030 it could reach 100 billion pounds. Labour's reforms intend to tackle this with savings of 5 billion pounds setting a new direction for Disability benefits. Already there are 1 million more claimants than in 2019 in Britain. There are 3.3 million claimants in 2025, projected to go up to 4 million in 2027. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After meeting with Rishi Sunak, the Finance Minister and the Business Secretary Alok Sharma prime minister Johnson is keen on getting things to as normal as possible in the summer to save jobs. About 3 million jobs could be lost, some permanently if businesses cannot open by summer, especially in the hospitality industry. This could push unemployment up from 1.3 million  to 2 million. The Times reports that at one point in the meeting Johnson said "Christ!" In mid March after he had the virus and Britain saw a surge in cases Johnson made health a priority even quoting Cicero in Latin that the health of the nation was the priority. Now this is changing with the jobs situation becoming a major risk. Much of the loss of jobs is likely say experts in the red wall districts that Johnson took from the Labour party in the election, and the prime minister feels a special responsibility to these districts. Johnson also said at one point about youth unemployment 18 to 24 years that is bleak, that he wanted to have an apprenticeship for every young person. The critical R rate is higher in the northwest and the southwest of England, compared to London. In England overall it is between 0.7 and 0.9. It needs to be around 1 to avoid spreading the virus.  As part of the social distancing guidelines ministers are also discussing changing the distancing on public transport so that it is 1 metre instead of 2 metres, so that reopening to get back to close to normal can be done sooner.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A former U.S. Treasury Secretary reflects on the backlash against free trade in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and calls for a shift towards putting more emphasis on how trade affects individual workers who are laid off or work part time. In the light of tax evasion following the Panama Papers Scandal he says the time has come for the emphasis to shift in trade policy and capital movements to tax havens, so that ordinary workers do not feel their interests are being ignored as elites frame policies for elites. He says the period when it was enough to defend global integration has been exhausted, and this is unlikely to succeed without a nation like the U.S. supporting it and global institutions. A new approach is needed, and this means shifting from international trade agreements to international harmonization agreements, where labor rights, environmental protection move to the top of the list, and enabling foreign producers becomes secondary. The whole overall emphasis must shift, says Summers, to creating hope and opportunity for middle class parents that their children can live better lives....

LyrArc Article Gist
The new government of prime minister Enrico Letta takes office in Italy in April 2013 following the reelection of president Giorgio Napolitano. Letta is 46 years old and represents a new generation in Italian politics. He is a former Christian Democrat and member of the European parliament. Letta studied at the University of Pisa, and did graduate work in international affairs. In the 1990's he was president of the European Young Christian Democrats. He was associated with Beniamino Andreatta, a Christian Democrat economist and founder of research group Arel. Letta was his chief of staff when he became foreign minister in 1993. In 1998 Letta was minister for European Affairs, and the following year Industry minister. In 2009 Letta became deputy secretary of the Democratic party. The firm European connections, a good sense of how Italians feel about the economic changes, a connection with young people, and his grasp of the needs of business and labor in improving Italian competitiveness, make him an excellent choice after the inconclusive parliamentary elections in Italy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Friedman looks at the situation for inner city kids in cities like Baltimore. Education Secretary, Arne Duncan, tells him most of these kids suffer from a lack of parenting. Duncan says, that with the lack of parents around them, the only presence round the clock is that of gangs which make an influence on these kids. One solution discussed is using the boarding school option to save these kids from the pernicious influences around them in the absence of adequate parenting. Other experts suggest tackling the source of the problem by economic revival of these communities. As a separate article in the NYT (Patricia Cohen, May 24, 2015) shows this is not easily done- black communities depended heavily on public sector jobs which were hit hard in the last decade, as the hollowing out in manufacturing was also hitting these communities and the industrial labor force. Blight such as that in Detroit from bankrupt cities unable to provide public services has added to the strains on these neighborhoods. William Galston (WSJ, May 6, 2015) points to the revival of Pittsburgh, and says cities such as Baltimore could do more with their medical technology and university assets. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In commenting on Rishi Sunak, a former hedge fund manager's sudden rise from anonymity three years ago when Boris Johnson became prime minister to leadership of the Tory party and prime minister, The Hindu cautions that it is of limited symbolic value, this kind of connection between India and the UK. The Tories are a house divided against itself, with many factions. Truss was brought down by Gove and others on the backbench who were not included in the government. Other Conservatives on the backbenches today, and Johnson, Jacob Rees Mogg, represent factions that are not represented in this government as was evident in questioning by Opposition leader Starmer in QA in the House of Commons. Other problems remain also evident in Starmer's questioning for Labour in parliament, including questioning about non domicile status in the family for tax purposes. Privileged Tories with connections to free markets such as Jacob Rees Mogg or Sunak without an awareness of the pain of ordinary working families, are not what a country with a cost of living crisis sees as leaders who can point to the way forward for Britain. As The Hindu points out he faces the same difficulty that Johnson with his style and personality was able to sidestep, that Truss naively tackled with quick unraveling of tax cuts for the upper incomes, and which Sunak with his experience with financial hedge funds may appear to have grasped but find escaping his grasp. This is the difficulty of matching traditional Tory policy of tax cuts and austerity, at a time when all major countries of Europe and the US are providing significant cost of living assistance to working families. Even small bits of austerity policy, or lack of conviction to help working families may now be seen by the Opposition, Labour, and even within some part of the Tory party and the vast majority of working families as oppressive.  Starmer is keen to remind working people of where Sunak stands as he did with the question in parliament Q&A about the comments made by Sunak at a small gathering that he had transferred money from poor districts to more affluent Tory districts. Would Sunak correct these erroneous funding formulas, Starmer asked. The Hindu also mentions Suella Braverman's appointment as Home Secretary only weeks after her resignation. It was poor judgement shown by Johnson in an appointment that cost him Tory support a few weeks before his resignation. Starmer brought this up from the beginning of parliament Q&A- asking whether a deal was made for her appointment to get far right wing Tory support from Braverman's faction in the party. For India and the Indian people there are so many genuine connections with Britain and the British people, some set when Mohandas Gandhi won the hearts of English working families during his visit for negotiations with the British that are are a better basis  and that will be remembered forever in the hearts and minds of the British people. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Janet Yellen preceded Mr. Powell as Fed chairman, to head the U.S. central bank. Mr. Powell has warned that it took 8 or 9 years for the Fed policies to work to get tighter labor markets where minorities and other less advantaged groups could find employment. A better solution has to be found. Crises should be anticipated and prevented such as the mortgage crisis of 2009- banks, business, regulators in government, bank policy and political leaders all have a responsibility to ensure this. A mediocre leadership in each field alone could have led to the crisis of this magnitude in 2009. The pandemic is a second blow to these same groups in society struggling to make a living and has added many more. Two large whole sections of society were hurt in the rescue from that banking debacle with shoddy mortgages. The rescue involved low interest rates and the offshoot effect of this was to reduce the return on savings of people in retirement or close to retirement who in the past could depend on interest rates of somewhere between 5 to 8% annually to increase their savings over a decade. The high costs of medical care as a result of artificially inflated medical costs and poor managing of this cost are a burden for this section of society- with diminished savings from both low interest rates and loss of employment from the financial crisis. The young people with high tuition burdens were the other section of society hit hard. Tuition costs are also out of control similar to medical costs, putting great burdens on whole sections of society in an unconscionable way for a society that claims to be "for the people." Mr. Mnuchin, Mr. Trump's Treasury Secretary, did not have a close understanding with Mr. Powell. As Mr. Powell enters the last year of his term as Fed chairman, his close relationship with Ms. Yellen at Treasury is seen in a positive way by the WSJ. Powell worked at Treasury in the 1990's. After 2012 to 2018 both Powell and Yellen were at the Federal Reserve, working closely and having adjacent offices. Will this duo make a difference? ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Responding to criticism of the Clinton Foundation which has affected Hillary Clinton's ability to win voter support in her contest with Bernie Sanders, the Clinton family has decided to take action in August 2016. The Clinton Global Initiative will be discontinued in 2017. Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton will stop raising funds for the Clinton foundation. The Clinton Foundation will not accept funds from foreign donors. What started as a do-good effort to raise funds for worthy causes such as world health, poverty and hunger turned out -because of its very success in raising large amounts of money from corporate donors- into a distraction for the election campaign of Hillary Clinton in 2016. It opened up Hillary Clinton to charges of having conflicts of interest from outsiders Sanders and Trump. Hillary Clinton discontinued her association as a board member of the foundation in 2015 when she began her campaign. Bill Clinton continued to give paid speeches and raised $2.6 million. All that fund raising appears to have been a big mistake and not even fair to the candidate, as it gave rise to misperceptions about the candidate going far beyond what the Clintons ever understood about was happening. As former Labor Secretary Robert Reich put it, it gives rise to accusations of impropriety that may affect an election, without the voters getting a chance to evaluate the candidates on the basis of what each candidates program or agenda is. In this the Clinton family may have realized that in retrospect the entire foundation activity appears to be a small matter, when put next to the choices facing the U.S. and the world in 2016 for the next decade and beyond. The Clinton Foundation in future would be managed by people independent of the Clinton family and circle. The next step would be setting it up as a public foundation, a new board and professional staff. Was it all worth the problems it has created for voters being able to get a clear idea of what each candidate offered, an not acting as a huge and dangerous distraction which Hillary Clinton and the country and the world could do without, considering the significance of making good choices in a general election- very much so. The foundation and the fund raising made it possible for outsiders Sanders and Trump to turn this election into one of slogans and accusations, to which the Clintons were unprepared to respond, acting as a distraction  which was bad for the country and the world. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is interviewed by Ashok Malik for the Economic Times in this videocast. On what India did right and lessons learned from addressing the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, inflation, Sitharaman says-Getting input and listening to people about what was needed and the pain, was critical in developing the financial plans. On the realization of India's potential in manufacturing, exports, and industrializing its economy, Sitharaman says-India's strength is its rule of law, so that the country is tolerant of criticism including of the prime minister, and there are democratic institutions that protect ordinary citizens, the business and other sectors. Also important is friend shoring as expressed by US Treasury Secretary Yellen alongside Sitharaman, that sees India as a favored destination for the US and the EU. The efforts to develop first rate infrastructure and logistics removes impediments to foreign investment. Training and education of workers is part of this effort to create a supply of trained labor for foreign investment factories in India. The competition between states is also part of this effort to build attractive locations for foreign investments in manufacturing in India. On 20th century financial institutions transforming into 21st century institutions for the IMF, the World Bank and other international financial institutions Sitharaman says- India has full support from all G-20 countries on debt crisis of countries in Asia and Africa, Latin America to change the way in which help is provided. And the skills are put in place to access financial markets on terms that help meet the aspirations of the people in poor countries or middle income countries, including some G20 countries such as Argentina. Sri Lanka she says, is an example where India is the governor and representing the country at the IMF and World Bank for its financial needs. India took up the interests of Sri Lanka with the G20 and the US, so that the loans are not delayed or given in ways that lead to the country exiting the program, unable to meet the aspirations for development of its people. Sitharaman says the G20 found complete agreement on 15 issues facing the world out of 17 issues, these two related to the war in Ukraine and that too from only 2 countries. This suggests that the media focus creating a general perception of lack of unanimity does not reflect what happened at the G20 meetings in India, and is distorted. What really happened is that all countries agreed on the substantial economic issues facing the world- of food insecurity, of development needs, and of climate change impact.  Sitharaman's responses showed optimism based on the hard work put in at the Finance Ministry and connected to all ministries and agencies of the government. And of a resilient attitude, of concentrated effort on the issues facing India and its partners in growth in the US and EU.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Robert Reich, a former Labor Secretary, says that instead of "rebalancing" with Chinese consumers buying more American goods and China exporting less to the USA, things are headed in the opposite direction. Why? Because at the macroeconomic level China is devoting more of its country's resources to production capacity. Chinese consumers are taking home a smaller proportion of the total economy. In 2008 personal consumption amounted to 35% of the total economy, whereas in 1998 it was 50%. Capital investment in the same 10 years went up 35% to 44%. Chinese continue to save and these savings are going into infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. There is even a social twist to the savings, with fewer young Chinese women than men parents with boys have to compete in the marraige market and save assets for this. Households are also saving to support more elderly people as population is aging quickly with population policies. All this means that with all the talk (see links to Niall Ferguson and Krugman), the situation will likely roll on in this manner till things reach an impasse, or there is a strong political backlash in the USA which leads to stronger trade actions by the government, or there is a crisis. Meanwhile the trade deficit is headed higher and Chinese foreign reserves will go far above the current $2.3 trillion. And the Europeans will also be getting restless with their trade imbalance, as the euro edges higher and the yuan remians pegged to the dollar, leading to trade distortions. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A joint article by Robert Rubin, Clinton era Treasury Secretary and Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute. Rubin was senior adviser to Citigroup during the period that Citigroup leveraged itself and invested in lower quality securities that have left the firm exposed to substanital losses, and led to hiring a new CEO Vikram Pandit to clean up the mess. And this may explain the joint article with a less well known economist Jared Bernstein, and the tentative nature of their advice as the two differ on the important issue of long term fiscal deficits and still agree on investing heavily in healthcare, education infrastructure, worker training and energy. In a short recession they may be complementary and you could have the best of both worlds as in the other postwar recessions. But this is unlike any of the postwar recessions and is shaping up to be a long and deep downturn unlike anything seen in the postwar period. That Rubin does not even mention this shows that probably he is out of touch, as he was during his years when Citigroup was acting much like the other banks that were in serious trouble this year. Some of the decisions for lax regulation during the Clinton years were taken with the support of Rubin and Greenspan. What Rubin calls the longest expansion could have been for the most part good fortune and a steady period for the economy with Rubin's contribution being fiscal discipline, stewardship of the Mexican rescue package and committment to free trade policies, but not facing upto huge headwinds in the economy that required challenging leadership and judgement. Here Rubin mentions nothing that suggests bold vision and judgement, instead hoping that old policies that worked during the good times would somehow work today. And on some issues like labor being squeezed and getting a smaller portion of the economic pie with no support for unionization, a drop in the number of unionized workers and weakened labor bargaining strength, Rubin who now sees this as a bad trend for the working middle class incomes, did little in his years in the Clinton administration to reverse or slow this trend. He cites productivity growth of 20% from 2000 to 2007, and yet the real income of working age middle class households was falling $2000 or 3%. ...