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Content Links 1. THE MISSILE ASPECTS OF THE LEBANESE CONFLICT OF 2006. The missiles have a reach of 10-20 upto a 100 miles. Most of the missiles are portable and can be moved from place to place and stored in wooden crates that can be easily transported. And the missiles are stored deep inside Shiite villages and towns, where the Shiite parties run the local government and provide social services and medical services, so that the resistance is kind of embedded in these areas. Considering that Lebanon is 40% Shiite and the backkground of oil rich Shiite Iran and its economic support of the Shiites here this becomes a difficult problem for Israel as it involves a door to door search to prevent the missiles from being launched. A senior Israeli military official: "Its a big problem for us, the launchers pop up for only a few minutes before the rocket goes... We just can't get them all."

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Reited Gen Gantz appears to be the likely head of a new government after winning the most seats in parliament. Policy towards Iran is not likely to change. But a Gantz led government is likely to reduce the divisiveness in the country, and provide a more unifying effort in Israeli society. The role of religious groups in daily life would also be held back. Better relations with Jewish people in America would result and peace negotiations with Palestinians would be encouraged. The prime minister would concentrate less power in his hands. By temperament Gantz is a quiet leader who preferred not to engage in the back and forth attacks in the election campaign even when Mr. Netanyahu  did not hesitate to do so. As the head of the military from 2011 to 2015 he also has the confidence of people in Israel looking for a new start after a long period of Netanyahu rule. The current prime minister could be indicted soon after a hearing next month on charges of bribery and fraud. Mr. Trump has said that U.S. relationship is not with any leader but with the country Israel. Gantz makes it clear after Netanyahu's style of politics has rocked Israel for many years- "We will bring about a real change in priorities, and heal Israeli society in all its parts." Mr. Gantz has said that he think the Obama administration could have done more in securing a better nuclear deal with Iran. Yet at an event in 2015 when the deal was being set, Mr Gantz said he also saw "the half full part of the glass." That the deal would keep Iran 10 or 15 years from making a nuclear weapon "with the right price." At this juncture in world affairs this is important because Mr. Trump has shown flexibility in dealing with Iran following the firing of National Security Adviser Bolton. Trump held back on a response at several points during the attacks in the Straits of Hormuz and the taking of ships hostage by Iran and the UK. The attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the difficulty of protecting oil installations in the region, Iran's increasingly difficult position under tight U.S. sanctions and pressure on Asian buyers of Iranian oil to cut back purchases, the efforts of Japan and India dependent on Saudi and Iranian oil to reduce tensions, all point to a new policy in the region with a new Israeli government playing a useful role to keep policy control in the hands of Asian countries dependent on oil supplies for their economies, and in the hands of a U.S. president better informed about a policy course that is in U.S. interests of avoiding unnecessary engagements overseas when there are other pressing priorities. ...

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Patel's speech on August 15 1948, provides a point of reflection for Gandhi's project of Hind Swaraj announced in his book Hind Swaraj written on a steamship voyage in 1909 returning to South Africa from England, and this week's Vikshit Bharat 2047 vision taking shape 75 years after 1947. Hear this audio podcast from All India Radio of Indian Deputy prime minister Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel's broadcast to the Indian Nation on Aug 15, 1948. It  is a point for reflection just one year after independence when the "paramountcy of the British inIndia came to an end," yet it was not clear that India would be pulled together as one Nation or be in pieces "Tukda, tukda." 75 years ago Patel talks about the situation in China where civil war raged- on that day the NYT showed Koumintang and Communist armies facing each other near Nanking and in Shantung province. Hyper inflation had already hit Shanghai a sack of rice cost 6.7 million yuan and the highest denomination currency was 180 million yuan, the Kouminatang decided to print money to fight the civil war.  Malaysia had riots and communist insurgency was about to take place. Synghman Rhee was made president of South Korea with US Gen. Douglas McArthur present in Seoul and the invasion by Communist North Korea on June 25, 1950 was around the corner.  Israel's Ben Gurion asked the UN to have Arab armies withdraw or it would have to go to war. In India the Kashmir invasion in the Himalayas starts on 12 September 1947 with Liaquat Ali Khan approving plans for tribals and Pathans to attack Kashmir.The states of Hyderabad, Travancore and Junagadh among princely states(which were one third of the British Empire) that had not been integrated. In Europe the Berlin Blockade had started in June 1948. This is the Asia and Europe that Patel saw in 1948 as he pondered on the meaning of Gandhi's success and what had still to be achieved. It is also a point of reflection in advance of  August 15, when India gained its freedom from British rule and set the stage for the decolonization of Indonesia from the Dutch, of Vietnam from the French, and Malaya from the British, followed by decolonization in all of Africa. ...

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Comments on X that cause difficulty for DJT chief of staff Susie Wiles to keep a clear narrative and the loss in the Wisconsin SC election are leading to a sense that Elon Musk could be a political liability. DJT focus is on the midterms and keeping the majority in the House, which is also why Elise Stefanik was asked to not accept the job of UN Representative and remain in the US Congress. The immediate focus is on tackling the Tariffs Liberation Day action April 2, 2025 so that followup negotiations with about 50 countries including major ones with Japan, Taiwan, Israel, Britain followed by European Union, South Korea and other nations. This would reassure markets as country after country is developing a new trade relationship that respects US manufacturing goals. China could then be tackled as a special case with America limited to loss of $146 billion in energy and grain sales which would be diverted to Europe's energy needs and farmers could be given a $50-100 billion support package. China would then have to find a way to preserve its $1 trillion surplus without the American market  which would require it to find other markets, and create a domestic market, if it chose not to negotiate and accept American manufacturing goals. ...

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Israel vaccination drive has now reached 2 million people for the first dose and 400,000 for the second dose. What do early results show? As the effectiveness is only 52% after the first dose, according to Pfizer for its vaccine, vaccination drive is only one part of the solution. The number of cases in Israel are high at 10,000 a day. There is concern about the ultra-Orthodox community following the protocols and rules for prevention. Ben Gurion International Airport may be restricted to only essential flights. A mutation variant of the coronavirus, a UK detected variant, is seen as making up about 30% of the cases and could make up the bulk of cases in the future. Lessons being learned are that Pfizer vaccine is effective at about 52% for the first dose. Only after the second dose are enough antibodies triggered to resist the virus effectively. This can be as much as 6 to 12 times the increase in antibodies for second dose, compared to what happens after the first dose says the Sheba Medical Centre at Tel Hashomer, Israel.   ...

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Over 50 countries have asked for negotiations with the US over reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US on April 2, 2025. US president DJT says- “There will be fair deals.” DJT says a number of foreign leaders have contacted the White House since April 2nd.  Israel, Japan, Taiwan are beginning negotiations with the US over tariffs. Britain, South Korea and India will follow. The European Union is waiting for an opportunity to do the same. “They’re offering things to us that we would have never even thought of asking them for, Nobody but me would do this.” With China the situation is different and China is unlikely to negotiate. "We have stressed more than once that pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage with us,” says the Chinese embassy in Washington DC. After DJT said he would impose a 50% tariff on China over and above the 34% of April 2nd if China does not take back its retaliatory tariffs. This would happen on Wednesday April 9. China says it would f"ight this to the end." A sign that the USTR will try to get other nations to come up with deals and tackle China separately. ...

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Airlines are placing placeholder schedules full of flights 6 to 9 months ahead of travel dates. The 2 months before the travel date the real schedule will be placed. At the time of travel some flights with few passengers will be cancelled. Airlines are also flying directly to travel destinations from smaller cities, new flights are setup for destinations such as Israel because of vaccinations, Reykjavik, and other destinations such as Greece that are opening up for vaccinated people in the US. In 20 years there has never been a time when airlines are planning flights in this way. A vacation surge is under way as vaccinations increase. Federal money to aid airlines recovery is helping airlines bring back planes and new flights, retrain pilots. Business travel is down and likely to stay that way, so that the surge is expected mostly from vacation travel. Delta has the unique situation where it can increase capacity by 30% by ending its block on middle seats on April 30, 2021. Delta's available seat miles are expected to be 80% of 2019 showing that a recovery is underway as more people book airline travel. ...

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After 5 months as president of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, issues decrees giving the president powers to dissolve the current deadlocked constitutional assembly. Liberals and Coptic Christians in the constitutional assembly had walked out in disagreement with the majority of about 75% appointed by the newly elected Egyptian parliament, which has an absolute majority for the Muslim Brotherhood party of Morsi. The deadline for the constitutional assembly completing its work was extended 2 months. A key demand of the opposition was that the work of the constitutional assembly was being rushed. Morsi also replaced the Mubarak appointed public prosecutor with Ibrahim Talaat, a leader for the movement for judicial independence, and ordered a new trial of Mubarak and others involved in the death of democracy protesters. The decrees were announced just as a ceasefire arranged by Morsi and U.S. president Obama has taken effect in the Israel-Gaza conflict. Morsi placed his actions above judicial oversight saying they were temporary. This came under heavy criticism from the opposition to Morsi in Egypt, as a threat to the gains from the hard fought freedom fight by creating a situation where too many powers are concentrated in one person....

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Electricity recharging stations instead of gas filling stations that would use the existing electricity grid by extending it and use existing battery technology is an idea that is being tried by a group of companies with a $100 million investment by the Israel Corporation, and $100 million from other sources. It would also provide for swapping batteries for instant refilling. It is estimated that assuming a lifespan of 1500 battery recharges energy cost of all electric cars would be 7 cents per mile according to Mr. Agassi's company Better Place which is behind this investment.

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The Republican party has split shows the New Hampshire and Iowa Republican  primaries says WSJ in this video that is essential to understand 2024. Demographic expert that the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) talked to in this video say Donald Trump has brought in working class voters into the Republican party, no question about that. Yet in doing so and with his style he has alienated what are suburban Republican voters, higher educated with college degrees, the country club type that was long been associated with the Republican party since 1900. Taking the Iowa and New Hampshire voters the WSJ shows in visual dynamic graphs that half of voters in both states did not vote for Trump. There are no differences between Republican voters who voted for Trump and who voted against Trump when it comes to gender, age, they are evenly divided for gender and age. Difference is in education and suburban. Higher educated, suburban Republican voters acted to vote against Trump. This means says WSJ is that the Republican party has now effectively split up. Immigration is not as important to these Republicans who voted against Trump, foreign policy is also important which is not so for Trump voters. Ukraine matters for these voters who voted against Trump. Abortion also matters and the economy matters for these Republican voters who did not vote for Trump. In the backdrop of all this is the advisers who surround the president, the chief of whom may be Jake Sullivan, not just for foreign policy but also on issues such as immigration. Where Michael Shear of the NYT who has covered the White House for 30 years shows Jake Sullivan actively pushing to close down the asylum and parole avenues that are surging migrant flows, and to get Biden to close the US Mexico border under a bipartisan deal worked out by Lindsay Graham and Chuck Schumer in the US Senate. Sullivan, Michael Burns and other thoughtful, careful advisers are helping the Biden administration navigate the Israel Palestinian conflict and the Ukraine Russian conflict. The Middle East is what tripped Jimmy Carter with the Iran hostage crisis, leading to the Reagan period and Reagan economic culture that is unwinding today with huge gaps in incomes and educational opportunities that never existed before in the US. What also tripped Jimmy Carter was the split with the party that John Kennedy and LBJ built on the foundations of the FDR Truman period, and his handling of the Kennedys that effectively split the Democratic party. This is the situation that is now happening in the Republican party as the Reagan era and its culture of extremes comes to a close. Of extremes not seen since the Great Depression of a working family struggling to live on wages near the poverty level in a automobile factory in Michigan before the UAW settlement that Biden was on the picket lines for, and the $55.8 billion pay package that was put forward for Mr. Musk at Tesla. ...

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ElBaradei's father was a president of the Egyptian Bar Association. ElBaradei studied for his law degree and doctorate at New York University and was an adjunct professor of law at NYU. He joined the UN and wasn not the choice of the Egyptian government for the position of head of the UN Atomic Energy Agency. He was a compromise candidate supported by the US. As a young diplomat in the Egyptian Foreign Ministry he was part of the team that negotiated the Camp David Peace Accords with Israel. Because of his background, a nuanced understanding of ElBaradei is necessary to understand his criticism of the Obama administration's hesitant support of the protests, and his statements saying Egypt's foreign policy was a failure. For his role in the future ElBaradei says, all I want to do is share and deliver this country to catch up with the rest of the world." To understand what this means for a backward country like Egypt with a growing population of 80 million of mostly young people, which has failed to keep pace with economic progress in other parts of the world, see the article by Henando de Soto. Soto describes his effort working on a project for reforms in Egypt from 1997-2004 with the support of members of the Egyptian cabinet and the US Agency of Intenational Development, which were blocked in a cabinet shakeup by interests wanting to preserve the status quo. Failure to grasp this central fact that alone among large developing countries Egypt has failed to deliver on the rising expectations in the developing world, makes it impossible to understand Egypt. This is why De Soto describes the situation in Egypt as Egypt's Econmic Apartheid. In New York City enjoyed his time in Greenwich village, going to the opera and Knicks basketball games....

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The reduction in tensions between the U.S. and Iran after the beginning of talks in Istanbul in April 2012. Other factors include differences within Iranian leadership and government leading to more flexible positions and differences within the Israeli leadership. Iranian and Israeli public opinion is moving in the direction of moderate positions.

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WSJ looks at the 75 years of the US Saudi Arabia relationship that started when US president Franklin Delano Roosevelt met Saudi king Ibn Saud at Bitter Creek, Egypt, on a US Navy destroyer ship in 1945. It has gone through many phases over this period and mainly involved the Saudi kingdom maintaining its supply of oil to the US and Western Europe. This relationship went through an oil embargo during tense periods of Israeli Palestine conflict as in 1983 with an oil embargo that pushed up oil prices. What is different this time is the situation in Yemen where Iranian supported Houthi rebels near the border with Saudi Arabia are engaged in a conflict with the Saudis. Democratic administrations under first Obama and Biden today support reaching a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons development and limit US military support for the war in Yemen. The Saudis for their part are not keen on a regional war and turned down efforts by president Trump to respond to attacks from Yemen. Mr. Biden's envoy has arranged for a deal to reduce tensions between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudis. The diplomatic impasse in relations stems from the Kashoggi incident and president Biden's concern for the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia. Other factors making relations difficult are the economic interests of the two countries diverging. The relationship Roosevelt started in 1945 has changed in its fundamental character. Oil supplies for imports into the US is no longer a factor for the US which was the original interest of president Roosevelt in Saudi Arabia. This changed by 2015 as the US fracking industry enabled US to become self sufficient in oil and able to supply LNG to western Europe. Instead of the US Saudi oil now goes to China. Russian oil also goes to China as its industry expanded with American investment. This has led to a new Saudi relationship with China which has changed the dynamic of the American Saudi relationship. Some of the new aspects of this can also be seen in Saudi relationship with South Asia. Saudi ties have increased with India and India in 2021 was the first country to provide vaccine supplies to Saudi Arabia. Saudis, Qatar, United Arab Emirates are building relationships with India as a close neighbor in the region. Relationships are in some ways improving in the Asian region compared to the period when oil was simply exchanged as a commodity for defense supplies from the US without regard to cultural, educational and other changes in Saudi society. In a sense US and Western Europe paid little attention to the huge democracy of over 1 billion people right in the middle of Asia and followed policies that led to major investments in China and little or no investment in India, and without realizing it followed a policy that the British had pursued in the British Empire of treating different communities and religions as separate as opposed to one community of people in South Asia that were engaged in modernizing, building infrastructure and changing centuries old ways of living. The British Empire was sustained by this kind of thinking, and as long as Indians were complacent and lacked the will to make their aspirations for a better life and infrastructure for modernization this kind of thinking prevailed. The economic crises in Asia have reinforced the idea that there is one community entirely focused on development and modernization in South Asia. The people in South Asia care most about the cost of living and the infrastructure and services for the quality of life they live and their children can aspire for- same in European Union that chose the Greens and chancellor Scholz, and same in the US that chose president Biden to invest infrastructure and people, the same in China and the same in India and the rest of Asia. This is the situation that the US and Britain, and the European Union are now beginning to learn and adapt to that is a constructive aspect of these changes to rebuild the connections and supply chains that were sorely neglected before now. ...

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This NYT editorial is critical of the election campaign run by the Likud and Netanyau for deepening tensions in Israeli society.

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Even China has not campaigned the way Canada, Mexico and British, American media have against DJT Tariffs because China knows it is basically about getting an even playing field when it is the only country with $1 trillion in trade in its favor in 2024, 12 times the Japanese high of $82 billion trade surplus in 2007. But why should China campaign when the American and British, German media are going to do the job for China? A simple quiz to K-12 would ask school children when is the last time a country has a $1 trillion trade surplus? Answer: Never. Greg Ip has written a few years back that the devastation of China outshoring of American factories and jobs was unlike the 1980's Japan trade invasion because of first China's size, second by the speed with which it happened at 10-14% Chinese GDP growth. There is a third Japan was an ally needing US for security and backed down, China's case is different it is challenging the US for control of the world economy and will fight this one over the long haul. Greg Ip of WSJ on the 53 countries asking to negotiate US Liberation Day April 2, 2025 Tariffs. These countries include Allies of the US in full support asking to negotiate Israel, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India Allies of the US in partial support asking to negotiate Britain Allies of the US not in full support asking to negotiate Germany, France Allies of the US in the past campaigning against the US, asking to negotiate Canada, Mexico Not Allies of the US, not in full support, not campaigning against the US China A look at his list tells one only one thing, mostly all trading partners except for the $146 billion exports of the US which represents exports to China are the exports that are at risk if things don't work out on tariffs. This is what the media today WSJ added this last week to the NYT, Wash. Post and the BBC, Guardian of UK, German media will not tell the reader.  The DJT Tariffs and Tariff negotiations are Lighthizer Tariff negotiations which won the fight with Japan in the 1980's over unfair trade and gaining a level playing field. Lighthizer as Deputy US Trade Representative conducted the tough negotiations with Japan. He was USTR in 2016-2020 and his Deputy Jamieson is now USTR in 2025       ...

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Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post cites the Pew poll of September 3-7, 2015, on the Iran nuclear deal of July 2015, showing increase in skepticism about the deal's provisions by people who are informed to some extent (a little or a lot) about its details- 57% opposing to 27% supporting. The strongly partisan opinion on the issue, and the lobbying on both sides, including bringing Iraq WMD into the picture as noted by Dana Milbank in another column in the Washington Post, overstates each case. This draws attention away from the actual provisions. About 30% have no opinion it appears because the issue of this magnitude involving nuclear weapons proliferation has become politicized when it should be examined only on its merits, where public opinion would be shaped by the details of the deal itself, not who has negotiated it. The Pew Research Center poll shows 21% support the agreement negotiated with Iran, 49% disapprove, 30% offer no opinion. This compares with a poll taken 6 weeks before in July 2015 showing 33% supporting it and 45% opposing it. ...

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Pulitzer prize winning journalist reporting on the Middle East and Saudi Arabia, Karen Elliott House, describes the changes in Saudi society and politics against the backdrop of the changes in the Middle East. Her exceptional reporting and insights provide a look into the Middle East at a time when young people make up the largest demographic and are looking for jobs and economic opportunity, with political structures lagging far behind in meeting the growing aspirations. The larger backdrop of the region extends into South Asia, with large Muslim populations unable to make the right choices for freedom and economic progress because of internal divisions, widespread illiteracy and lack of education of the rural population, and poor leadership. The lag affects western society in different ways, including the threat of terrorism, sporadic involvement in the region's conflicts, and a sense of not being able to do the right thing by its own ideals.

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How capital is flowing all over the middle east from oil rich countries to other countries in the middle east. See related article on GE infrastructure orders in the middle east WSJ July 25,2007, one of GE's fastest growing markets after China and India. What opportunities are available to other companies in other industries in the middle east? Private equity firms, including one run by a Pakistani and Carlyle Group, state companies in oil rich companies funding cross border investments, special econmic zones of Israel in Egypt and Jordan, dismantling of protectionis barriers, having executive of Unilever as Egyptian trade minister to overhaul public sector and regulations, increased foreign investment which brings with new knowhow and ideas (about $40 billion a year including Turkey).

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Richard Haas and Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations suggest a path of negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the Iran crisis. Haas points to the difficulties in solving the impasse in the crisis through solutions based entirely either on military options or on expanded sanctions. The merit of this approach, says Haas, would also be to demonstrate that the U.S. and the E.U nations have done their best to come up with a negotiated outcome.

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Friedman highlights the importance of an interview with President Obama by Atlantic magazine's Jeffrey Goldberg. In this interview Obama gives a thoughtful understanding of what it means if Iran acquires nuclear weapons. The greatest danger is in nuclear proliferation. Obama brings to this an understanding of this issue from the time he focussed on this issue as a student at Columbia University, when he described the risks of nuclear proliferation in the Columbia student newspaper. There is the risk of an escalation in the development of nuclear weapons in the Middle East first, and then elsewhere. And there is the risk that nuclear weapons fall into the wrong hands. The situation would create problems like that faced in North Korea or in the India-Pakistan region, but increased by many times the current dangers. The entire nuclear de-proliferation effort and the efforts to de-nuclearize weapons stockpiles that took decades to accomplish with the Soviet Union could come undone- and it would then be necessary for all countries to invest in advanced technologies for defending against nuclear weapons, setting in motion another arms race. The current situation reminds people that the issues raised by nuclear weapons development will always be with us, and require a worldwide concerted effort, at official and public level, bringing in scientists, public opinion worldwide, and educating the public in all countries of the larger danger to mankind. The issues need to be put in the right context beyond nations and politics, beyond international conflicts and competing interests or ideologies, including Israel, Iran and any other nation looking for nuclear weapons as a solution for conflicts. Shultz, Perry, Kissinger and Nunn after a series of meetings at the Hoover Institution called for the update of the old policies of nuclear deterrance based on mutually assured destruction used with the Soviet Union, to reflect the new threat of terrorism- in an op-ed NYT 3/7/2011. The focus of this effort is on a new Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, with all nations giving up nuclear material to an international nuclear material bank. Senator Obama strongly supported the efforts of Senators Lugar and Nunn in de-proliferation work after the collapse of the Soviet Union and joined the senators on one of their trips- Broad and Sanger, NYT, 7/5/2009. A major effort to reduce NATO, U.S. and Soviet nuclear weapons is called for to lead by example, providing a framework for other means of settling regional conflicts and educating public opinion in these countries, and moving forward the negotiating of the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty. In many ways public opinion will have to lead the way in all countries as governments can lag behind- the efforts of Sam Nunn and Dick Lugar and the many unnamed people in the Soviet Union who aided their efforts show the importance of this....

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Iran will discontinue the second phase of the subsidy reduction program as the currency depreciates drastically in October 2012.