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S&P forecast is for India's economy to be the third largest by 2030 at 6.3% annual growth. Positive consumer sentiment, domestic demand and increasing state investment are increasing growth to 7.8% and 7.6% in the second and third quarter 2023. A stable government that is focused on economic growth and capital investment projects increases the economic prospects of the Indian economy into 2024. Most of the northern and northwestern, and middle Indian states have investment coming from a coordinated push by state and federal government run economic sectors. Underlying this effort is building of infrastructure, shipping, transport and logistics, that will support growth of key industries to 2030, when the Indian economy is expected to be the third largest in the world. 

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Why China India Brazil see the old liberal order discussed at Davos Switzerland, based on the world in 1947 not reflecting growth of Asia in 2026, and not serving the working class or middle class. UK's Farage says it is about people at Swiss Ski resorts deciding what the world should look like. Today the Swiss cannot even take their trade arrangements with the US for granted after US tariffs on entrenched unfair dealings in trade with the US. There is a growing perception in the UK and US and many parts of Europe that this so called liberal order is not working for the people of these countries. China and India, Brazil, see that arrangements set in 1947 as part that order that is cherished by the folks at Davos, and not reflecting the growth of these countries in 2026. The attitudes at Davos may be the most at issue, with Swiss and French attitudes not reflecting the situation in France which is deeply divided between the rural parts of the country and the urban areas about the direction of the country and the need to make life better for the working class and the middle class. In many ways the people of the US and of Europe share this huge rural vs urban divide made worse by the deindustrialization and shipping of manufacturing overseas to Asia.  Looking back at US history provides better clues- many of the same improvements made by Lincoln as Republican, Theodore Roosevelt as Republican, Franklin Roosevelt as Democrat, JFK as Democrat have created the society Americans cherished for so long and was the beacon to the world, which is not about this so called liberal order but rational step by step corrections of course and improvement after improvement, and offer a pathway to the future better than the whole host of politics and politicians that failed America and Europe. ...

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Havana a ghost town with little activity, garbage piling up, and population struggling to make a living- pictures as France's Le Monde sees it in Jan 2026. Was it all worth it?  A revolution happened in 1956 against Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista that lost its way over 4 decades to 2000, on life support for another 2 decades to 2026. The Cuban experiment caused Venezuela to enter the same realm of disillusionment and many insurgencies in the rest of Latin America that failed with too much rhetoric and little to back it up with in investment and growth through patient effort and inputs of capital, labor and technology, and cooperation with US and EU, the very stuff that changed lives in China and India for 2.5 billion people.

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A Pew Research Center poll in September 2016 finds 81 percent of Indians have a favorable opinion of Narendra Modi in 2016, compared to 87 percent in 2015. Even among supporters of the opposition Indian National Congress a majority say they have a favorable opinion of Mr. Modi. The author of the poll, Bruce Stokes, says the opinion of frustration of the Indian elites and media about the Modi administration is not reflected in public opinion. Recently the Modi government passed legislation for a national Goods and Services Tax replacing overlapping state and federal taxes that are seen as holding up growth.  Issues the Indian public ranks high are corruption, unemployment and terrorism.

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Indian exports to China declined in the covid pandemic years when China experienced little or no growth. This has worsened the trade deficit, yet this is temporary. Imports have worsened with Chinese dumping of products into the country. This should not alter India's policy of building close trade and investment relations with the US and the European Union as its main partners. This is also consistent with the prime minister's Atman Nirbhar Bharat policy. The author of this report in Hindustan Times says policy should integrate India with China and Factory Asia, yet this ignores India's growth trajectory as it is only now building up momentum and will for the next decade see the kind of growth Japan and China made in their peak growth period, even as China slows down and forms a smaller part of the global supply chain. US policy is for India to form the major part of the supply chain replacing China at some point as the leading supplier, even though it is moving gradually to get there. India should make policy as Modi has done for 2030, then 2047, and reach its own potential acting in concert with US and EU. ...

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Economic growth in India has slowed to 6.9% for the June to September period 2011, compared with the prior year, according to a government report. The sequence of rate increases by India's central bank have failed to slow inflation, and foreign investment is declining. Economists now forecast growth at 6% for 2012, a low rate of growth for India, which has a growing population approaching 1.2 billion people and serious infrastructure problems. This creates a scenario of stagflation- high inflation and low growth. The fears are now for a combination of high government debt, infrastructure issues, and lack of foreign investment. This is leading to moves by the Indian government to bring up long delayed efforts in the area of opening the retail industry to foreign investment. And lifting quotas on foreign ownership of Indian bonds, allowing foreign pension managers into India. The value of the Indian currency has declined 15%, in 3 months since August 2011. The eurozone crisis and the combination of slowgrowth and high unemployment in the U.S. are leading to foreign investors withdrawing from emerging markets, with a sharp impact on India. A combination of domestic and international factors are hitting India after two decades of high growth. ...

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World Bank projections of Indian growth rate are lowered from 6.6% to 5.8% because of DJT US administration's 50% tariff on imports from India. "It is in America’s national interest, then, for South Asia, and especially India, to grow at a rapid clip. That would create a counterweight in Asia to China’s massive economic and military expansion." This is the opinion of the Editorial Board of The Washington Post. It goes on to say that -  "But Trump is determined to negotiate a grand trade bargain with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, so he didn’t impose secondary sanctions on their purchases of Russian crude.Trump wants U.S. trade policy to be more self-interested, but it doesn’t serve America’s strategic interests to strengthen China’s position relative to its neighbors. At some level, the administration surely knows this." The Washington Post has identified a basic flaw in the US policy towards India. Both parties in America have fallen into a trap of believing that first Japan, then China with accelerated economic expansion in the 1920's and 30's and in the 2000's and 2010's  are not going to run into issues with such expansion, this being the military and the separation from US economic cooperation that enabled the economic expansion of both Asian countries. Another aspect is that in 1950 China was similar in size of economy to India at 1.18, in 1903 and in 1962 at 1.18, and the gap between China and India is only a story of the last 2 decades. By 2047 India surely has the potential to close this gap with economic and technological integration with the US and European economies that were the pillars of China's economic expansion in an earlier period.  There are other aspects of culture and size- The Bhagavad Gita and the Bible provided Gandhi with an integrated view of western civilization. With its interactions and adoption of western institutions and government, of law, the new Indian state and its neighbor Indonesia represent 1.7 billion people in Asia, with Japan and the Philippines 2 billion people twice the size of China.   ...

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US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

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Young people in the job market and retirees making less than Rs 60,000 a month will not pay any tax under the Budget for 2023 for India. Growth will be generated through capital spending on infrastructure improvements that is 33% higher in 2023 than in 2022. By keeping the fiscal deficit under 5.9% the government is encouraging private industry to invest for growth. This report in The Indian Express says the Modi government and finance minister Sitharaman are acting with fiscal prudence and yet maintaining momentum for future growth.

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A good look at the Indian economy is provided in this year end review by The Hindu. India navigated through a difficult environment with fluctuating oil prices and inflation in the international economic environment, and yet maintained investment in infrastructure for future growth.

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India is an attractive place for foreign investors with the country moving up 23 places in the ease of doing business rankings of the World Bank. Growth is faster than China since 2015, and GDP is expected to double to $5 trillion by 2030, according to government think tank NITI Aayog. Corporate deal making from foreign investors exceeds that in China. Mergers and acquisitions targeting Indian companies reaching a total of $93.7 billion in 2018, up 52% from last year, according to Dealogic. Overseas purchases were $39.5 billion for India in 2018 compared to $32.8 billion for China. In comparison to China where trade tensions are increasing, India under the Modi government has improved the ease of doing business- implementing a new bankruptcy code, easing foreign direct investment rules, introduced a nationwide goods and services tax to replace a hodge podge of taxes in different states. In the consumer sector Unilever NV made purchase of a malted drink brand Horlicks from GlaxoSmithKline PLC as part of a $3.75 billion deal. Softbank led a $1 billion investment in OYO Hotels. In infrastructure Tata Steel made a $8.3 billion acquisition of steelmaker Bhushan Steel. Reliance Jio's aggressive push in mobile with low prices is leaving the telecom industry ripe for mergers and consolidation- Bharti Infratel acquired Indus Towers for $6.5 billion. Closely held family companies are also selling out their controlling stakes. ...

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India's new bankruptcy law is a big step forward in letting credit markets function normally and drawing in new capital. The new law says the bankruptcy should be completed in 180 days after a default. Indian banks hold about $105 billion in non-performing or bad loans, according to the Reserve Bank of India. It is essential that India cope with the bad debt to attract new capital investment and increase growth. Asset reconstruction company being formed by Ambit and J.C. Flowers & Company was approved in late 2016 by the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. So far Indian banks have showed unwillingness to take a loss on the loans and take a big discount. Only $3 billion in asset reconstruction has taken place in 2016 through selling bad loans, according to Credit Suisse. Indian industry has relied heavily on bank loans and sale of stock for capital investment as the corporate bond market is undeveloped. This is about to change to finance growth, with the bankruptcy law and transparency as a first step. Larger foreign firms are teaming up with local partners to tackle distressed debt and bad loans, with locals knowledge of risks making it easier to profit from capital invested. ICICI bank won the first ruling of the new bankruptcy law by the National Company Law Tribunal against Innoventive to recover assets, providing the first test of the law. In the past such action would drag on for years, showing India is now serious about getting rid of bad loans in the banking system, and to revitalize credit markets to finance new growth. ...

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India's GST tax collections - which finance infrastructure -reach the 1.40 lakh crore mark  (about $20 billion) for 3 months in a row in 2022. Increase in tax compliance culture, audit analytics, and actions against tax evaders, helped increase GST revenue collections. Revenues from import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions were 44% higher than the same month in the prior year. The increased economic activity and creating tax compliance culture are good indicators for economic growth in addition to the GDP numbers showing about 8% growth in 2021, the highest in the world surpassing China by a wide margin.  The growth slowed to about 4% increase in GDP in the 1st quarter yet the events of the first quarter such as the war in Ukraine increasing food and oil prices, depressing economic activity, have some other indicators unique to India that are entirely positive and hold promise for a surge in economic growth in this decade to 2030. With the pandemic years 2020-2021 pointing to shift in supply chains of US and Germany away from China towards India and other Asian nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support of China will only make this shift move faster. At a time when Indian logistics and infrastructure improvements under the PM's Gati Shakti Master Plan will create the right conditions for massive foreign investment in the Indian economy. ...

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Next 5 year plan should see 10% growth in India, Finance Minister predicts.

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The Vice Chairman of the NITI Aayog, which replaced the Planning Commission, says his work in the government led to significant progress with the Indian economy reaching nearly 8% growth.

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Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman meets IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva to discuss impact of the geopolitical situation on world growth especially oil prices. Sitharaman said India was pursuing a policy of strong federal spending with capital expenditures increasing by 35% for fiscal 2022-23 to continue a public investment led recovery, raising capital expenditures from 5.5 lakh crore rupees to 7.5 lakh crore rupees. Indian GDP growth is now expected at 8-8.5%, the highest of large economies. Sitharaman also met with Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on the sidelines of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting and discussed the current global situation.

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British prime minister Boris Johnson will visit India in January at the invitation of Indian prime minister Modi. It is the first bilateral visit of Mr. Johnson since taking office. Johnson says he really looks forward to the trip and delivering on the quantum leap to create jobs and growth for the two countries. He has invited Modi to the G7 Summit in London as a guest nation along with Australia and South Korea. Mr. Johnson will also host a climate change summit. This is the first visit to India by a British prime minister since John Major. Because of the historical relationship and the British Commonwealth of nations, and as leaders in the English speaking world, both countries have a lot in common. The parliamentary system India adopted comes from Britain. India's role in the Indian ocean as a maritime power alongside Britain and Australia also comes from the period when Britain was the preeminent maritime power in the world. Indian companies in UK have $41 billion pounds in sales and half a million British jobs come from Indian companies. India also is UK's biggest partner in pharmaceuticals, making 50% of the world's vaccines. ...

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Indian Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal says India represents only 2% of overall global exports. This means there is a great opportunity today to double this even as global trade slows because of the small size it is now and the policy of resilient supply chains sought by the US and EU. A country India's size and technological capacity would in normal situation have 10% or 15% of global exports he said, so that there was a huge opportunity for growth.

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Vindu Goel of the NYT gives this report on IBM's expansion in India including an interview with Vanitha Narayanan, chairman of IBM India. In 2017 IBM had 130,000 employees in India, at operations in Pune, Calcutta, Chennai and Bangalore and other cities, double that in 2007. The U.S. operations have about 100,000 employees. As IBM's revenues have declined with technology disruptions, it has concentrated on expansion in India with its vast base of knowledge workers and costs of about one half to one fifth of what it would cost in the U.S. IBM has 380,000 employees worldwide, with 26% in the U.S. and 34% in India, and 40% in other countries. Microsoft employs 8000 employees in India and 124,000 total worldwide, Google has 1800 in India and 72,000 worldwide.  IBM removed operations in India in 1978 after a dispute with the Indian government. In 1993 it started operations in India in a joint venture with Tata. By 2004 the operations had expanded and IBM took full control. A $750 million 10 year contract was signed in 2004 with an Indian phone company Bharti Airtel. As Goel points out the shift is happening towards expansion in India with the growing demand from industry and government in India. The Watson venture has expanded in healthcare in India with contracts including one with Maniphal Hospitals. In 2016 this had reached $38 billion in hardware and software, services, to Indian industry and the government agencies. IBM's work is not simply in offsourced work from American companies. High tech and cutting edge research is also taking place and expanding. IBM is now uniquely positioned to get an expanding share of the business as more tech services are provided to the hundreds of millions of people in India who did not have access to tech and tech services before. Research concentrates on doing this at a fraction of the cost and in new ways suited to the local region, so that services can be delivered with a wider reach. This report provides a new perspective on how the next decade could see American companies with a long term focus take advantage of the rapid growth in the fastest growing large economy in the world, with advantages for both the U.S. and India. ...

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Key points emerging from Xi's 20th Party Congress for the Chinese Communist Party are shown here in the Indian Express including its attitude to India. The Jiang Zemin and Youth League factions are shown to have lost influence and Xi has his people in the Political Bureau and the Central Military Commission. GDP growth is no longer the priority to be replaced with more balanced development and reducing the wide disparity in wealth that developed in China over 3 decades of hyper growth. State control over  development becomes the preferred model.

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India's economy is at 2.597 trillion dollars at the end of 2017according to World Bank figures, surpassing 2.582 trillion for France. India's economy has doubled in a decade and is expected to pass Germany and Japan in GDP by 2032, to become the third largest after the U.S. and China.

As China's growth has slowed India's is growing. It recovered by July 2017 from one time events designed to actually spur growth such as the effort to implement a nationwide tax for GST. Demonetization also contributes to growth by accelerating the shift away from cash to recorded and taxable transactions. The tax revenue is increasing as less of the economy is in the black market sector. Higher tax revenues enable larger investments in health, education and infrastructure.

New bankruptcy law and speedy resolution of bad debt of banks is also laying the ground for future growth with new investment.

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The Chief Economic Adviser to the Indian Government Mr. Anantha Nageswaran, makes these comments on the economy of India before the presentation of the new Budget for April 2023 to March 2024. The Economic Survey of India states that "India is prepared to grow at its potential once the one-off shocks of the Covid pandemic and of the supply chain recede." He sees the sweeping effects of the reforms across multiple dimensions taken from 2016 to 2022 having a lag effect and now making their impact. This means that potential growth can go up to 7 or 8% with macroeconomic improvement, fiscal improvement, infrastructure efforts, women's employment, and getting rid of LIC (License, Inspect and Compliance) across local, state and central levels. He says the central bank estimate of 6.8% retail inflation for 2022-2023 is outside its target range but yet not high enough to deter private consumption, and no low enough to weaken the inducement to invest. He says slower growth in the world including the US will bring two advantages for India- low oil prices and a better current account deficit situation.  ...

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The title of this BBC report is a misnomer as the content of the report is that India and the US are actively negotiating a Trade Agreement after some disagreements on Indian oil purchases from Russia bumped up from 2% before 2019 to about one third to 40% of its imports by 2024. This is being rapidly reversed and some estimates by consultants CLSA show India only made $2-3 billion from Russian discounted oil sales, a miniscule amount. On American interest in agricultural exports India can take in some products other than grain which it sees as important to feed 1 billion people and food security.  DJT says the "special relationship" between India and the US is important, and says "there's nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion". India has much bigger stakes in trade with the US. In fact it's growth into the third largest economy in the world means doubling or tripling its trade with the US and the European Union in the next few years. This would narrow the difference in GDP and per capita between India and China, as India and China started at the same GDP and per capita in 1950. Only in 1990 with China's trade with the US has the Chinese GDP and per capita income increased to create the huge gap with India. ...