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Iran Ceasefire shaky May 11 2026 with no willingness on the part of IRGC Iran (Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps) to send all nuclear materials out of the country. Past experience has shaken American confidence in IRGC Iran's willingness to give up nuclear weapons development. Under president Obama some nuclear materials were sent to Russia, some left inside Iran which were after an agreement used by IRGC Iran to develop weapons grade enriched uranium, putting the situation back to where America started before the agreement. This is behind the DJT Republican administration's effort to get all nuclear materials out of Iran. This has wasted another decade for Iran, diverting resources needed for improving standards of living and cost of living to the weapons programs. The result is internal protests that were widespread in Iran including the middle class, not just students. So that today Iranian people are divided on the issue whether Iran should against all prevailing Middle Eastern and World opinion go for a nuclear weapon. The situation of clandestine development in North Korea and Pakistan of nuclear weapons is not existent today as the US is monitoring it constantly. Israel sees these weapons programs in Iran as a threat to its existence close to its borders in Lebanon and Iraq, which makes it unlikely that clandestine development is possible for nuclear weapons development anywhere in the Middle East. The UAE has also shifted its stance in favor of the US, Saudis want assurances, and India, Pakistan Egypt are in different ways seeking a denuclearized Middle East. This means the American DJT administration is NOT ALONE on this issue as the media in the US and Europe are presenting. Germany's Wadephul and Merz are closer to US thinking on this issue than the media says. Macron and Starmer are at popularity of less than 20% in France and the UK and do not reflect the opinion in France and Britain, and in Europe on this issue. In this sense the US is doing this for a safer world, for China, India, Brazil and EU, all the nations in the poorest parts of the world in Africa, Asia. These poorest nations which are bearing the brunt of this obsession with nuclear weapons development by IRGC Iran in a Middle East torn by 5 decades of wars from Kabul to Damascus, Baghdad to Tehran, by IRGC Iran (Revolutionary Guard Corps), as these poor nations confront lack of oil and fertilizer supplies. It does not come at a good time for even the largest nations about 3 billion people in China, India and Indonesia, Egypt which are suffering from the effects of oil shortages and fertilizer shortages when possibly at most about 40 of 90 million people in Iran support weapons programs, all others in Iran seeking a way out for better standards of living and living at peace with neighbors and the world. In that peacetime Middle East the Palestinian people could find solutions like the Irish people with the goodwill of all neighbors. ...

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Eurobarometer Survey conducted by the European Commission on what people say about staying inside the European Union show increasing support inside the UK and inside member countries of the EU. In a survey done in March 2019, Eurobarometer Survey involving 1000 people in each of the 28 countries of the EU shows 53% of respondents in the UK supporting Remaining in the European Union, 35% Leave , and 12% undecided. Asked whether Britain had made the right choice to leave the EU in the referendum 54% of respondents said Britain made the wrong choice, only 38% said yes. There is a definite shift in sentiment that reflects the way the changes in the EU since the referendum was held- with only a trickle of immigration to Europe and now return of some refugees to their home countries, economic aid to African countries to reduce migrants. The economies of Europe that struggled through austerity policies such as Spain have show strong growth of 3% over 3 years, and of Portugal and Greece recovering. News at the time of austerity policies, uncontrolled immigration to Europe, affected public sentiment at the time of Britain's first referendum on EU membership. In the EU countries there is a definite upturn in sentiment- 66% would vote to remain in the EU, only 17% would vote to leave. The chaoic Brexit process in the UK has also led to the upturn. 68% of respondents in the EU countries said their countries had benefited from membership in the European Union, the largest support seen in 25 years. ...

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Most people are not aware that EU had 10% tariff on US car imports into the European Union over many decades. US tariff was only 2.5%. The US tariff of 15% on EU car imports into the US in 2025 comes after EU recalcitrance for decades in lowering its tariffs on US car imports.  German carmakers have prepared for the higher tariff and EU car stocks were up as this is a lower tariff than the initial tariff of 25%. German car makers export luxury cars with higher margins which offers some offset as well as increasing efficiency in car making so that only a small part of this will be passed on to the US car buyer. An offset to the US car buyer is in the One Big Beautiful Act of 2025 which lets car buyers deduct the interest costs of leasing a car. The result is that US car industry will have the advantage it has long been deprived of and American car buyers will not be affected in the way the media has presented, or not at all. Over time German car industry will also do well with its access to the growing American market. Germany will lower its tariff on US car imports to 2.5% from 10% which makes it profitable for BMW and Mercedes to make SUV's in the US to export to Germany and EU, making this a win-win for US and EU. ...

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As the August 1 deadline approached first the Japanese and then the Europeans who held out till the end sometimes treating the US with disdain and ridicule, realized that the US was dead serious about tariffs. Even the US business community tended to treat DJT tariffs with disdain not realizing that the tariff battles were first fought against Japan by Deputy USTR Robert Lighthizer under Reagan in the 1980's always to get a fair deal for the US. The recalcitrance of the Europeans and the Japanese can be understood by the non tariff barriers Japan placed on US products and the 10% tariff on US autos the European Union had in place for decades when the US only had a 2.5% tariff on German car imports.  The media in the US and Europe has utterly failed to tell the US side of the story. Here at Lyrarc we remain committed to bring out all the facts so that readers can better understand both sides. Initially the EU adopted an adversarial approach as shown in this report in WSJ by Kim Mackrael and Brian Schwartz. How is it that the Europeans and the Japanese took such a position when since 1980 there was no level playing field for the US on world trade clear for all to see? Not till late May as negotiations dragged on did Japan and the EU take stock of their own positions, DJT having to say US would impose a 50% tariff to get the EU to understand, saying "our discussions with them are going nowhere." In the end in Scotland Leyen and Sefovic for the EU accepted 15% tariff on EU imports to US. Akazawa of Japan had accepted this the week before. ...

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...

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The EU will put up 50 billion euros for a 200 billion euro planned AI investment by Europe, with the rest coming from providers, investors and industry. This was announced at the AI Action Summit in Paris, Feb 2025.

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European has a completely different perception of events in Europe than the US which has distanced itself. EU president Von der Leyen says- “A new era is upon us. Europe faces a clear and present danger on a scale that none of us has seen in our adult lifetime … We are living in the most momentous and dangerous of times.” And it is has the room in its budgets and the willpower to back it up without US help. $30-$40 billion in EU aid to Ukraine when US aid to Ukraine ended this week by the DJT Trump administration. Part of the $650 billion in new defense spending found in the space left from lower spending for decades of less than 2%, from an increase of 1.5% in spending on defense. And the $150 in loans from joint EU borrowing on capital markets.

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Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel says she will not support the moves by the EU commission to impose export bans on export of Astra Zeneca vaccines made in EU countries to Britain. A Dutch factory has 4 million doses of this vaccine ready for shipment.  Merkel says, "there are a huge range of international interdependencies when it comes to vaccine production. You have to be very careful when it comes to imposing export bans. You have to take a close look at supply chains."  Merkel's action comes as Britain makes an effort to talk to German and French leaders for a fair way to allocate supplies of vaccine. France and Germany see the need for the principles of "reciprocity" and "equivalence" to be covered in settling the differences on vaccine supplies. Equivalence refers to the sense that there should not be a big gap between EU and non EU countries in vaccine access. On March 24, Britain had vaccinated 45 of 100 people in the country, and EU had vaccinated only 13 people in a hundred. ...

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By winning 30% of the vote Pete Magyar of Tisza party in the EU elections 2024 emerges as the second largest after Viktor Orban's Fidesz. This gives Hungary a strong opposition party to the Fidesz. It broadens the centrist parties trying to hold European Union together from the challenges presented over migration issues by AfD in Germany and Wilders party in Netherlands. It is expected to join Leyen's EPP.

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European Union elections are the largest elections after India. 450 million people elect 720 members of the EU parliament based in Strasbourg, France near the border with Germany. The elections are happening just as India completes its voting with results out by June 5 for 1.4 billion people. The EU and Indian elections have similarities. India has 28 states with different languages in most states. This is similar to the 27 independent countries in the EU and 27 national elections for EU parliament, 28 state elections for 543 members of the Lok Sabha, the Indian parliament. EU parliament does not run a government, it approves members of the European Commission that conducts affairs of the EU. Parties are from the Socialists, the Greens, the Right win parties and Centrist parties. Germany has 96 seats based on its population.

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Denmark's Mette Frederiksen and policy of no asylum in EU for illegal migrants is becoming the norm in Europe- as Germany's Merz supports this policy- and the US. Britain under Starmer's Labour has struggled with it's justice system unable to deal with the situation of asylum because it was never designed for people of other countries entering the country in this way. Simply fixing the justice system as Yvette Cooper plans to do, which was never intended for this purpose ignores that there are 111,000 asylum cases as reported by the Times of London in June 2025 compared to 7000 in 2022.  Mette Frederiksen is a Socialist and has shown that this has nothing to do with politics, only common sense application of the laws of Britain, Denmark, Germany, US and other countries that only way to enter the country is legally. 

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This report in The Times shows 2 charts. One with how much of the population has been vaccinated with Israel and the UAE at about 33%, UK at 12% US at 7%, and EU countries far behind. The second chart shows how much of the western world's vaccine supplies have been purchased by US, UK, and EU. 

European Union appears to be lagging behind in arranging purchases of vaccine supplies, with UK and US ahead. The shortages in Europe of vaccine, and limited supplies of the Astra Zeneca vaccine to the EU, is resulting in a nasty argument with the UK. At one point the EU planned to limit vaccine exports from the Pfizer Belgian plant to the UK, including closing off the Northern Ireland border.  That move came under criticism from EU's Michael Barnier.

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Not a cash sinkhole- Apple generates 25% of its revenue of 383 billion from the EU. A $13 bill tax bill is for taxes due and a $1.4 billion fine insignificant fine for Apple's size. Apple is not just device maker. Also an apps platform taking a percentage of revenues on its Apps store.

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A virtual meeting for 2 hours with premier Li Keqiang and president Xi for one hour by EU president Leyen leads to no assurances from China that it would not support Russia's position in the Ukraine conflict.  As part of the Merkel administration in Germany Leyen deepened economic ties with China and Russia. This combined with the fraying ties with China and Russia under the Trump administration and continued under president Biden may have led to the situation today where these ties are being reversed. The situation of assertiveness by Russia and China on territorial issues such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Ukraine, and competition with China while US and European business is heavily engaged in China may have created the situation faced today where abrupt changes are happening. This report by the WSJ says European Union is seen as a buffer in its heightened competition with the US, and China is making an effort to salvage its ties with the European Union. ...

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British prime minister Theresa May's EU withdrawal agreement was defeated in the House of Commons by a vote of 344 to 286, a margin of 58 votes. 5 Labour MP's voted in favor, and 34 Brexiteer MP's in the European Research Group voted against. The Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland voted against. The vote did not include a declaration on the future relations with the European Union. The vote happened on March 29, the deadline for Britain to leave the EU. A new deadline of April 10 has been set to seek a longer extension.

Options going forward are to use a longer delay of a year to come up with consensus, have a second referendum, or hold a general election. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for Mrs. May to resign and hold a general election. Britain will hold European parliament elections in May.

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Polls on Deutchland opinion trends show Merkel has gained support with her careful handling of Brexit, and the AfD has lost support. Only a month ago media reports covering the immigration issues had put AfD in the light of gaining using this issue. The infighting in the Conservative Party and the lack of any plans of ministers in the British government favoring Brexit for leaving the EU have Germans questioning this kind of politics compared to Merkel's promise of a "calm and composed manner" in dealing with issues of people's lives and the future of Europe. The extensive coverage in Germany of the vote for Brexit, the EU referendum in Britain, increased awareness in Germany of the benefits of the European Union. Merkel and other leaders offered their assessment of how the European Union has brought peace to Europe and improved the lives of the people during the pre Brexit media coverage. Now Infratest Dimap polls show the popularity of Merkel has increased to 59%. Compared to a June poll before Brexit things look better for Merkel-  the AfD Alternative for Germany has lost 3 percent of support dropping to 12 percent, the Christian Democrat party of Merkel is up by 2 percentage points to 34 percent in popular support, the Social Democrats also increasing support by 1 percent to 22 percent.The vast majority of people said the European Union provides security (74 percent) and prosperity (79 percent). Germans are skeptical about the value of referendums on such major decisions as EU membership because of swings in popular opinion such as that on immigration that swayed British voters- 49 percent saying parliament does better in these situations than a referendum, 42% saying referendums are better. For voters who said Germany was hindered by membership only 11% supported that proposition and 52% said the EU is beneficial for Germany. Over 75% actually favor more cooperation on refugees, data policies and energy, setting the prospect for a stronger European Union. Also proving the importance of responsible politics, and honest, flexible leadership, responding to people's concerns yet not pandering to swings in opinion for temporary advantage. A separate piece in the Guardian by Yonge points out that Cameron actually won only 23 percent of the eligible voters for Conservatives in the 2015 elections in Britain, reflecting a two decade slide. Brexit only made this failure widely visible, and did not escape the attention of the German people.   ...

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The EU has agreed to allow a new Brexit extension, this time till January 31, 2020. According to the paper agreed on by member states the UK can leave on the first day of the month that a deal is ratified if a deal is ratified in parliament before the new extension date. The EU has also put in a declaration attached to the agreement that it will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. EU leaders did not have to meet to do this as it was done by a written procedure used by EU council president Donald Tusk.

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Automakers taking a charge for bets on EV's encouraged by Biden- Stellantis $26 billion follows Ford $19.5 billion, GM $6 billion.  Stellantis Chief Executive Antonio Filosa says about the write-downs- It “largely reflects the cost of overestimating the pace of the energy transition that distanced us from many car buyers’ real-world needs, means and desires.” The Biden administration took climate change seriously but failed to get Congressional support for the EV charging stations needed and infrastructure needed across the US to keep pace with automakers shift to EV's. Stellantis took the change as an opportunity to develop many new EV models under CEO Carlos Tavares. Also overlooked by the Biden administration is the cost of cars which increased by about 20-30% during the 2022-2024 period. The lack of charging infrastructure, lack of battery technology advances for powerful batteries, and the costs involved pushing up prices of all automobiles, acted as severe bottlenecks when the Republicans fought the election on cost of living action. Biden era incentives were removed and gas prices were brought down by DJT extending the life of gas powered vehicles and making them the average man's choice. Of the $26 billion 65% is for canceled vehicle platforms for EV's for Dodge Ram and Jeep Wrangler. Another $8 billion is for cash payments to suppliers for canceled orders.   ...

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The $2.3 billion pounds (2.6 billion euros) the UK paid to the EU for not collecting legitimate customs duties for imports from China, could finance a UK travel pass like the popular 9 euro travel pass in Germany. That 9 euro pass was a sixth of the cost to travel in Berlin, one way the German government helped people face the cost of living crisis. It cost the German government 2.5 billion euros. One more missed opportunity in Britain by the Tory government to help people with the cost of living crisis. The UK gets hit first with a loss of the customs duties revenue that would have been collected as well as any penalties for fraud from importers. Add to this the $2.3 billion pounds in settlement with the European Union for not collecting legitimate customs duties from imported textiles and shoes into Britain from China. Blunders and missed opportunities to help people  with cost of living crisis is a mark of the Conservative government in Britain. The Guardian reports that the case goes back to 2017 when the EU anti-fraud office said British authorites had allowed criminals to evade customs duties by making false claims about imports of clothes and shoes from China. It says that the EU found over half of all textiles and footwear imported from China were below the lowest acceptable prices.  ...

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At this point in May (May 22, 2026) a glimmer of hope appears for settling both the crisis in Hormuz and the Ukraine war. Pakistan, Turkey and China following DJT visit to China may be pushing Iran to lower the scale of the conflict. China's first priority was to be accepted by the US at the Beijing meeting as an equal power with the US, and keen to show its willingness to bear responsibility for peaceful resolution in conflict zones as a sign of its maturity as a world power. Much of this is not shown in the media as it is mostly done behind the scenes in communications that the media knows nothing about. Note that even in the depths of the Cold War during the Hungarian revolution of 1956 and Soviet action in Budapest, the US and the Soviets when their economies were not intertwined as the US and China are today, were still talking to each other to limit the conflicts to low level conflict. Hong Kong takeover, China's actions near Taiwan, China's presence in Latin America, Chinese cooperation with Iran, and Russia on Ukraine, China's economic competition in rare earths, are relatively smaller levels of friction considering 1950's Soviet's and the US. At the same time China and the Us are aware of a new bloc emerging in Oslo in May, where India is merging its economy with the Nordic economies of Sweden, Denmark and Norway, and of the European Union and Germany, creating a new bloc of 2 billion people that can only grow rapidly with India's potential to exceed growth rates of 20% in the 600 million Eastern region for a decade. EU would make the shift to strategic partnership with India displacing the vital role the European Union has played in China's growth and economy. This would create new pressures for Russian president Putin to decide it is time to listen to a friend India and de-escalate lower the level of conflict with an initial peace deal that would lead to more talks on a final settlement. Because Russia would have a harder time tackling both India and Germany at the same time. NYT shows on the same day May 22 a report on Russia and a report by the Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Sonegard that say the elites in Russia and Putin were by January 2026 having very serious discussion to change the administration, bring Igor Sechin as negotiaor to end the Ukraine conflict before serious, possibly irreversible damage, to the Russian economy. Sweden's Sonegard says that between 2020 and 2024 Russian economy declined by 8%, not grew by 13% as official figures show, inflation is much higher than 5% as official figures show, and credit is tightening, bankruptcies expected, growth even with oil prices up down to 0.4% for 2026. During 20 years running Russia Putin's No. 1 priority, his life's mission was to restore, then exceed by a large margin the living standards of the Russian people. Having at such great cost accomplished the goal of gaining recognition as a Northern Power in Europe, having gained much of Russian speaking eastern Ukraine, Putin could wisely with self respect wind down Ukraine conflict for good. The US gains something similar to Northern Power status for Russia in its recommitment to the Monroe Doctrine, with Russia withdrawing from any involvement- and China tacitly doing the same-  in the western hemisphere. With that the US can tackle its own losses that match Russian losses in lives- loss of more American lives than in the Korean and Vietnam and WWI combined to drug smuggling from Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and restoring rule of law in Cuba, Venezuela, and through drug cartel free Mexico good governance in Mexico.  ...

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EU Commission president Leyen announces Pfizer will supply EU with 1.8 billion doses of Pfizer vaccine to 2023. The increased supplies will include booster shorts to increase immunity. Another change is the new date for 70% of European Union population to be vaccinated, which is now advanced to end of July instead of end of September. With new waves of the coronavirus affecting Europe, and criticism of the EU's earlier effort in securing vaccine supplies, more urgency has gone into the new effort in 2021. Leyen told Pfizer CEO Albert Bouria- "If I may say so, engineer the mRNA in a way that it can adapt to potential escape vaccines," at a joint press conference. Leyen thanked Pfizer for its enormous effort in boosting vaccine manufacture and delivery. This will help accelerate the vaccination effort in Europe after the slow start in March and April of 2021. Bringing much needed optimism and new hope of a lasting recovery both in economic activity, health and in the mood in Europe, which can then spread from the US and Europe to the rest of the world. ...

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Pope Francis spoke against the effort by the European Union bureaucracy to limit the use of "Happy Christmas" and called it a form of "ideological colonization." He told reporters "many, many dictatorships" had tried this and all had failed on a trip back from Greece and Cyprus. The European Union bureaucracy then withdrew the 32 page guide on use of sensitive language.  Francis said European Union was "necessary" but warned against the EU bureaucracy trying to iron out the differences of culture and religion around the EU bloc countries. "This could end up dividing the countries and causing it to fail. The EU must respect each country as it is structured and not make them uniform." One of the main influences for the European identity, of western civilization, is Christianity. Less known is that King Alfred in his reign 871-899 AD, in one of the most stirring periods of British history, relied on Christianity as a civilizing influence on tribes of the Nordic countries that were invading Britain. The same process of bringing a civilizing influence on heathen tribes happened in mainland Europe. And a similar process took place in India with Vedanta and Buddhism as it spread to China, Japan, Sri Lanka and the rest of Asia. Civilization meant education, learning, wisdom, and came at this time through the ideas of the Bible or the Upanishads, or the Buddhist ideas.  Alfred struggles with how that wisdom once lost, may be retrieved by being written in the English language from Latin. He writes during this period of tumult and invasions- Learning had declined so thoroughly in England, that there were very few people on this side of the Humber who could understand their divine services in English. There were so few of them that I cannot recall a single one south of the Thames when I succeeded to the kingdom. Thanks be to God Almighty that we have any supply of teachers at all! Therefore I beseech you to do as I believe you are willing to do, as often as you can, free yourself from worldly affairs so that you can apply that wisdom that God gave you where ever you can. Remember what punishments befell us in this world when we ourselves did not cherish learning nor transmit it to other men. We were Christians in name only and very few of us possessed Christian virtues." What a contrast from the time of Alfred when Christian thought was identified with learning and wisdom, and the loss of learning and wisdom felt so deeply in this way. In the 12th century Dogen brought Buddhist thought and learning from China to Japan, before that Bodhidharma from India to China in the sixth century AD, and Buddhist thought evolved out of the Upanishads in the 6th century BC, in the same spirit of reflection.   ...

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Industry will bear the brunt of cuts under a gas rationing plan approved by EU nations. EU nations will reduce gas usage by 15% with some flexibility granted to Spain, Portugal and Hungary.

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EU energy ministers approve a windfall tax of $140 billion as solidarity contribution of fossil fuel producers. This follows action taken by president Biden in the $369 billion US Climate bill to generate the funds for social solidarity and for climate change action for brighter future in US and Europe.