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Jay Powell signals that protecting working families from inflation even as he attacks inflation and strong labor market to moderate wage increases that could hurt jobs is a difficult balancing act that he wants to get right. Here are his own words at the Brookings Institution- "My colleagues and I do not want to overtighten because... cutting rates is not what we want to do too soon. That's why we're slowing down and going to try to find out way to what that right level is." He said he did not rely on forecasting that could be inaccurate and is feeling his way through this. It showed - the remarkable humility of this central bank governor unlike any of the last five decades, and he was warmly received by Brookings. He is keenly aware that the pandemic has hurt labour market participation as many have retired and some are still struggling to join the labor market, and there are other working families in the labor market who are being hurt by inflation.    ...

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Two senior American military officers will now lead operations in Europe. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli takes over US European Command, and becomes the Head of all Allied Forces in Europe as Supreme Commander Europe, including NATO Command. Lt. Gen. Bryan Fenton will lead the Special Forces Command. Cavoli speaks 3 languages Russian, Italian and French, and has served as a foreign area officer. He also served as Director of Russia in the Joint Staff, and has a masters degree in Russian and Eastern European Studies from Yale University. General Eishenhower had this kind of broad experience in the years after World War I that helped him hold the position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe during the war with Nazi Germany. Lt. Gen Byran Fenton is from Seymour, Tennessee. He is currently based at Fort Bragg as head of Joint Operations Command. Both officers will have to be confirmed by Congress and will operate in a new situation with the insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq now being replaced by conventional war in Europe and threats to Taiwan, the Indian border with China, and at the Korean peninsula. ...

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Mr. Macron is beginning to listen to young voters says this report in The Guardian, yet after this election is over it says he has to do some profound rethinking. The abstention rate of 40% for young voters under 35 should be deeply disturbing. Too much power is concentrated in the presidency and little in parliament, it is true, with Macron's aloof style making things worse. Yet for young voter to say they are indifferent to a vote for Macron or Le Pen shows that Macron has much to do to win the trust of younger voters. The Guardian cites a Cambridge University study that shows the current disillusionment outstrips ones of previous generations, and has more substance than the one that shook De Gaulle in 1968 as opportunity was growing in France for all parts of society in 1968 compared to 2022.  The frustrations at work are common to US, Britain, Germany, France and all of western Europe- precarious and unfulfilling work, low pay, and asset based inequality, that is creating a slow burn generational crisis, says The Guardian. ...

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This report in DW.com shows the coverage in German media of the election of Droupadi Murmu as the president of India. She is the second woman and the first person from a tribal community to be elected president. She worked as a school teacher and was elected to the state assembly in Odisha (Orissa) in eastern India twice. She served as the governor of Jharkhand a state with a large tribal community in eastern India from 2015. About 27% of Jharkhand population is tribal and much higher in rural areas because over 90% of tribal people live in the rural villages. Murmu is from the Santhal tribe that is spread over several northeastern states. Most of the tribal population of 106 million people in India is in the northeast, east, some in the west, in border states with China and Pakistan, and in these parts of India it makes up as much as a quarter of the population or higher. This is why a new India requires better educated, good governance dedicated tribal leaders who can contribute to development under sab ka vikas sab ka prayas, development for all through everyone's efforts. ...

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Biden is seen in Ireland as the most Irish president Since John F. Kennedy. Biden's great- great grandfather is Owen Finnegan who lived in Carlingford, Ireland, and left for New York in 1849. Two ancestral towns are preparing for his trip in Ireland, one in the county of Mayo and one in the scenic east coast's Cooley peninsula. Some Irish say Biden's interest in Ireland is very genuine, very personal. Biden quotes from Irish poets. He is the most Irish president except for JFK. There are more than 30 million Irish Americans in America and there is a connection with the island that is not found anywhere else. Mr. Biden invited on member of his family to the White House from Ireland for St Patrick's Day. He is all family they say about Mr. Biden. There is great enthusiasm for his visit in Ireland and for what Biden is doing to keep the Good Friday Agreement signed 25 years ago in 1998 so that Brexit does not affect it and border are soft. The Bridge at the border may be called The Biden Bridge. ...

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The average price of a smartphone in India in 2022 was $206 excluding taxes, Apple's smartphones go for $898. With discounts Apple is now bringing the price down to below $500. In 2019 phones over $500 made up 3% of the market. This has increased to 6% in 2022. Apple is counting on this share of the market going up and prices being brought down below $500 to build a larger share of the market. Its market in 2023 is about 5% in India compared to 22% in China.

In China Apple has its own stores. It is only now opening its first store in Mumbai. This and building manufacturing facilities in India could be the way to increase its share of the market in India to where it provides an alternative comparable to the Chinese market. This is the first time after the pandemic and the supply chain issues, the idea of friendshoring, that Apple is reorienting its policy for making India a key part of its supply chain and market. 

 

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The revival of De Gaulle who led post war France and created the Fifth Republic is taking place in France as France looks for renewal following the devastation caused by the pandemic and other crises. Following the crisis of the Second World War and the defeat of France in 1940, it was General Charles De Gaulle who brought modernization to France and the self-belief that led to France joining Germany in setting up the European Union. It was De Gaulle who set setup the presidential system in France after weak coalition governments persisted throughout the period between the tow wars. As Barber points out here in the Financial Times this has a good claim to be France's most stable political system since the absolute monarchy of the 18th century. It was also De Gaulle who set French agriculture on the path to modernization and started the infrastructure building that created the France we know today. De Gaulle also appealed to all segments of French society and engaged them in the process of national development unlike the different administrations of the last three decades. ...

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NYT columnist David Brooks says Biden will be judged in the long run by what he has done to bring the two parts of America together that have drifted apart -one educated, affluent, city based and the other less educated, poorer, living in smaller towns and rural areas. One from the professional classes, and college educated that benefited from the tech boom, the other from working classes that felt the brunt of the shift of jobs to China. Biden is old enough to remember his emotional mentor Franklin Delano Roosevelt who faced a similar split America with farmers in small towns and workers who lost jobs in the Depression on one side and the smaller affluent classes of professional workers, small business owners in the earlier tech boom of the 1920's. Biden's father experienced unemployment and had experiences as a blue collar worker in Pennsylvania after business failures. It is an experience that has shaped Biden's views on America and the need to bring back hope after the pandemic that followed decades of neglect of working class Americans.   ...

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Viewing people as "pass throughs for units of fiscal stimulus" that is no longer an option, no longer wise, no longer possible. Brian Deese, US president Biden's economic adviser, uses this sentence as he describes the approach of president Biden in putting together a $2 trillion plan to invest in infrastructure and in the people of America. He compares 2009 to 2021 and talks about the differences then and now after the pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic exposed all the weak spots in the American fabric and society and in the way national life was organized. Today the pain is felt in socio economic groups throughout the country.    US president Biden wants to make a decisive impact with large investments in infrastructure, education, health and jobs. In American manufacturing competitiveness and in America's technological advancement. The investments made in 2009 were in simple recovery mode, this time the investments are intended to bring America back to its position in the world after 1945, the hope and the optimism for a better future. ...

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The two waves of the coronavirus in India can be compared looking at the graphs and this report in the Times of India. The case volume and deaths in the worst hit state Maharashtra is shown here. The case volume increased by about 50% in the second wave but deaths were about half that in the first wave. Most of the deaths were in the people over 65 and most of the cases in the ages below 40 years. In the over 65 age only 5% have been vaccinated which means that medical management is still the best way of tackling the coronavirus. Vaccine supplies are the bottleneck and this is beginning to change- so that by August ample supplies of the vaccine should make the difference in bringing down cases and deaths.  Lockdowns are managed carefully so that the economy can recover in the second half of 2021 and in 2022.  Any assessment of the crisis management must take into account the speed of the response, its effectiveness, and keeping in mind the economic recovery needed following the pandemic. ...

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New habits better than old ones are what builds character. And character cleaves through all manner of difficulties.  Experts say the wrong way to do this is to draw up lofty resolutions that are big steps and gradually lose hope through the year as carrying it out runs into problems.  It is best to go small, to take many mini steps towards a goal and associate each mini step with positive feelings. The goal should also be fairly simple and something you already wanted to do, or always wanted to do.  Going small one can set new habits in motion through little actions done through the day at particular times. It may even start taking no more than a few minutes, that is just fine. Its the accumulated actions, and the learning, the positive feelings, that set up a new habit. Gradually without thinking too much about it this changes us over time whether it is trying to meditate, do yoga or some other exercize, tackle some priority, or do something fun that is also vitally helpful for our growth and development. ...

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The crowded sports stadiums for soccer games during early February in the Lombardy region accelerated the spread of coronavirus in Italy by the end of February. The sports stadiums soccer games spread the virus like wildfire in northern Italy. This is why along with nursing homes, sports stadiums pose the greatest threat from coronavirus. The tens of thousands of people from a single game can contaminate as many as 40,000 or 50,000 people as these 10,000 people go on subways, restaurants and other places. This spreads to millions very quickly creating a wildfire effect. Airports and sports stadiums or music venues, theatres have this wildfire spreading effect that is then compounded by the use of public transport and restaurants other close proximity places, spreading it far and wide. These are also not essential activities as work and office, employees working at companies or in manufacturing, which are essential to the economy.  This is why in terms of priority sports and leisure travel can be deferred till a vaccine is developed. Business travel is increasingly being substituted by using videoconferencing and other ways of staying in touch remotely. ...

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Mr. Pascal Soriot of Astra Zeneca says his company has signed agreements for production of 2 billion doses of the coronavirus vaccine being developed by Oxford University. He says manufacturing is starting now because "we want it to be as fast as possible." One of the deals is with Serum Institute of India, the other is with Bill Gates of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for $750 million for CEPI and GAVI organizations which he supports. Mr. Soriot says the licensing agreement with Serum Institute is to supply one billion doses for low and middle income countries, with 400 million doses ready by end of 2020. He says Astra Zeneca is building supply chains across the world and so far has secured manufacturing capacity for 2 billion doses of the vaccine. Mr Soriot tells BBC that manufacturing vaccines on this scale is not an easy thing to do. He says that Astra Zeneca will not make a profit in production of these Oxford University developed vaccines. The U.S. has secured 300 million doses of the Oxford vaccine, and the UK 100 million doses.   ...

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The Oxford vaccine developed in partnership with Astra Zeneca aims to be the vaccine for the world. The partnership has said it will make 2 billion doses and will provide this without making a profit at about $3 for one dose. Serum Institute of India was the leading supplier of vaccines to the world before the pandemic. Now it is preparing to make 1 billion doses of the Oxford vaccine. Already Astra Zenca has setup agreements for manufacturing  in other countries, with about 24 manufacturing facilities in countries such as Brazil, Japan, and Australia. Arrangements are also made with Russia and Mexico. The Russian partner has capacity to make 1 billion doses of the vaccine. In May the U.S. agreed to buy 300 million doses for $1.6 billion and manufacturing facilities are already being setup in the U.S.  The U.S. and other governments are sharing the risks as Astra Zeneca is hiring other companies to build the manufacturing capacity and working with them to install the new machines and supply the vaccine ingredients. For this the U.S. has Operation Warp Speed a $10 billion vaccine initiative and its organization, including the military. ...

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The Paris climate change agreement involved 195 countries. Agreed to on December 12, 2015 it was seen as a major step forward to limit global warming to 2 degrees celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Progress has been slow in taking action since then. Because of covid 19 the Glasgow conference was cancelled. Hope stems from the goals set for carbon neutral economy of Japan, the EU, UK, China, and the U.S. as it enters the agreement after withdrawing.  Much will depend on action taken as the pandemic has pushed economic goals of recovery to the forefront. As India has shown in renewable energy, particularly in solar energy targets and bold vision, there is a lot that can be done by each country acting on its own without the hype of the agreement. India now sees huge opportunities in solar energy because it is cheaper and pollutes less than coal. This is a game changer that comes from investing in new technologies and taking advantage of India's abundant access to sunny weather and the lower labor and other costs. ...

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What was it like to be an American in those days? Sense of duty and a fighting spirit. Col. Dave Severance was commander of the Marines that landed on Iwo Jima, the 7 mile long volcanic island 660 miles south of Japan, on Feb. 19, 1945. The picture of marines raising the flag on the top of Suribachi mountain was taken as Marines battled entrenched Japanese troops. James Forrestal, Secretary of the Navy, was on the beach below, says this report in NYT, as Severance passes away at age 102 in La Jolla, California.   This picture has become a classic of American resolve and spirit since then. It is also about humility with what Queen Elizabeth calls "self-discipline and quiet good humored resolve" of the British and by extension Americans.  When asked about the photo and his role in Iwo Jima immortalized in John Wayne's role in The Sands of Iwo Jima, Severance said- "I never thought about it. Just that I was a Marine for 30 years and I never ended up in jail." ...

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"Once social change begins it cannot be reversed. You cannot uneducate a person who has learned to read. You cannot humiliate a person who feels pride." The United Farmworkers union was formed by migrant farm workers Cesar Chavez and Dolores Huerta to bring decent wages and good working conditions for farm labour in the US, with most of the work done in California farm areas. March 31st is now Cesar Chavez Day in the US with a Biden proclamation. His niece is shown in the adjoining article as an adviser in the White House and now campaign manager for 2024. She is a softspoken Latina who grew up around Chavez in the fields and farm pickup trucks of the sixties and seventies, as shown in the Washington Post on this page. Biden has proposed an overtime rule for farmworkers, and ensuring farm workers get a fair wage and decent working conditions is the goal of the White House- including recovering $21 million in back pay and wages ensuring 26,000 farm workers get the wages they earned. And remaining steadfast says Biden to ensure workers get paid sick leave, good working conditions. ...

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How quickly things can change - Italy is now growing faster than Germany or France. The construction industry is booming with energy efficient home renovation. The superbonus 110 is a payment by the Italian government for energy efficient housing improvements. The government pays 65% of the cost to homeowners making better energy efficient renovations plus 10%. As introduced by the Five Star movement government it was 100% plus additional 10%. Giorgia Meloni's government lowered it to 65% from 75% in 2023. This has boosted the construction industry in Italy and revived Italy's growth where it is growing faster than France and Germany. Germany is seeing about 0.3% growth compared to 0.7% predicted by OECD for Italy in 2024. Giorgia Meloni the new Italian prime minister, after Mario Draghi a central banking official, has continued Draghi's policies and provided a measure of stability and leadership to the government.  Much of the capital comes from the $216 billion or $200 billion euros that will be given to Italy from the COVID Recovery Fund. Italy is the largest recipient. ...

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PM Modi inaugurates India's first Vande Bharat Express in Ahmedabad. New Metro in Ahmedabad and the Express trains increase multi-modal connectivity in Gujarat. Modi says the Vande Bharat train operates quietly with sound that is one hundredth of the sound that is heard on modern aircraft. A new rail station is planned for Ahmedabad and twin city arrangement with Gandhinagar. Modi says the transport infrastructure in Ahmedabad would be taken to the whole nation. He says Ahmedabadis have calculated the cost of travel by other transport including buses, and found the value that is in travel by Metro with ease, speed and time saved. And found that this beats transport by any other way for seamless connectivity and ease of use. Modi says he had a vision of such service when a global connectivity committee visited Ahmedabad when he was chief minister. Yet it was only in the last 8 years that he having moved to the federal government was able to get both federal and state funding to develop the new rail and Metro services in Gujarat using new technologies and experience. ...

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France and Algeria see improving relations as a necessity and Macron visits Algeria on the 60th anniversary of its independence. About half a million civilians and soldiers died in the Algerian civil war that ended in 1962, 400,000 Algerians. Algerian estimates are higher. It was a trauma for France and for Algeria. De Gaulle pushed through Algerian independence against fierce opposition by 1962 using a referendum, with many assasination attempts on his life. Macron called for "looking back at the past with humility," to look back at the history long before the arrival of the French, and archives from both nations will be put together for an objective account of what happened. Macron has said that Algerians simply focused their hatred on French occupation since 1830 and Turkey whitewashed its own occupation of Algeria before 1830. The Ottoman Turks set up the Regency of Algiers in 1525 after defeating Spanish-Moroccan armies and Turks controlled the region till the French took over in 1830.  Macron says Algeria's identity as a separate nation was set only after French rule. ...

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This report in the NYT says a little known donation raising method used by the Republican National Senatorial Committee may affect Republican chances of taking control of the Senate in the US. The method is considered part of hyper aggressive methods that ask people provocative questions such as "Should Biden resign?" in millions of text messages sent out and asked to reply click YES to Donate, the amount is then processed immediately, says NYT. It was so controversial that WinRed the main Republican donation processing platform banned the practice. It appeared to be working earlier but with the cost of living crisis in 2022 donors are holding back. NYT says the digital ads to get these donations cost more than the donations in some situations. It cost $23.3 million for digital ads and expenses and raised only $6.1 million leading to a $17 million deficit, according to NYT. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell now thinks it could affect chances for the Senate. The NSRC Republican group has $23 million about half what the Democrats have. ...

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Fei Fei Lee and John Etchemendy co-founders of Stanford Univeristy's Institute for Human-centred Artificial Intelligence the public sector needs to lead AI development.  Acceptance and advocacy by the people at Stanford University that AI is too important to be left to the private sector. That like space exploration conducted by NASA and the Hoover Dam and Tennessee Valley Authority during the Depression, the Erie Canal in the mid nineteenth century, some work is better done by the public sector. For this to happen Stanford needs to accept its position as one of the many great educational and cultural institutions of this country not what Silicon Valley and the Reagan era hand it to being its preeminent beneficiary and representative. This marks a change at Stanford after thinking long and hard about the dangers to America that have emerged from the Reagan era thought that took in its fold Democrats like Clinton and Obama- the 2009 financial crisis fueled by deregulation and defunding of infrastructure and manufacturing, that laid the seeds for America's downward spiral.  ...

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A new terminal is taking shape at 41st st and 8th Ave. in New York City. This is the new $10 billion Port Authority Bus Terminal. NYT taks a look at the design of this new terminal that will replace one that had become old and haggard looking. Port Authority officials say the old building was a rundown 1950's era building that was a poster child for a failed infrastructure facility. The NYT says this brick building darkened two full blocks of midtown Manhattan. In its place will be a a brighter open looking space that is state of the art and has 2 office towers. Much of the US infrastructure was built in the period of the 1950's and 1960's. Much of it is crumbling and old, and the investment taking place step by step under the Biden plan for rebuilding infrastructure with trillions of dollars in investment is working. Construction will take 8 years by 2032 with coronavirus pandemic delay figured in. Step by step it will change the way cities, highways, airports, bridges will look in the US in the coming decade. ...

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Hospitals in New York City are coping better in the current wave of coronavirus variant in December 2021 as the symptoms of patients are milder and patients are going home quicker. This report covers NYU Langone, Northwell and Mt Sinai, Presbyterian  health systems. Only about 2% of healthcare workers were lost through dismissals because of the vaccine mandate at Northwell, which is the largest health system in New York City with about two dozen hospitals. About 400 covid patients turned up on Friday Dec. 17, a fraction of the 1350 last January and of the 3500 in early spring 2021. The head of integrated operations,, Dr. John D'Angelo says Northwell has enough staff to meet projected needs. Most covid patients had underlying health problems and a quarter are vaccinated up from 10-15% a month ago. Vaccinations and two years of experience make for a different picture now, though there will be challenges and I think we're going to have to think through a bit carefully, says Dr. D'Angelo. ...

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Turkey's inflation rate continues to rise even after a government effort in December to stabilize the economy by stabilizing the lira. Annual inflation jumped from 21% in November to 36% in December, according to the Turkey Statistical Institute. The true inflation rate could be much higher. The ENAGrup estimate after assessing thousands of prices is that true annual inflation is 82%. Ordinary Turks have difficulty affording essential food supplies, says this WSJ report. Turkey has overdependence on the US dollar in its government and bank borrowings which has intensified the impact of the cost increases world wide with the supply chain problems and higher energy prices. Food imports now are much costlier. Depreciation of the lira currency by about 50% added to the impact of the overall global inflation. The lira has come back a bit to 40% loss of value after an unorthodox government plan, yet inflation continues to rise. Deeper problems within the economy that were hidden when the economy was in high growth years are now apparent as the world sees an inflationary surge during the second year of the pandemic. ...