LyrArc Article Gist
Of the 54 Blue Dog in the House, six have retired, 39 are in competitive races, and 22 of those are in pure toss-ups, according tot he Cook Political Report. Blue Dogs are Democrats from the conservative districts, which says one expert makes them an endangered species anyway. The result will be that the returning Congress will have Democrats who are more liberal than the previous Congress. The same dynamc is being repeated on the Republican side with some 50 newcomers expected, and they are not from the political centre. This will make for a very polarized Congress, with less opportunity for new legislation in areas where it is needed.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Senate voted 79-19 to go forward with a bill on sanctions against China for undervaluation of the yuan. The IMF says China's currency is "substantially undervalued."

LyrArc Article Gist
The opioid crisis, covid pandemic and failures in healthcare caused the life expectancy in the US to hit new lows in 2021, the lowest since 1996. Life expectancy dropped from 77 years to 76 years, with the death rate rising 5% in 2021.Before the covid pandemic the life expectancy was at about 79 years in 2019. Black people had a life expectancy gap of 6 years in 2021 compared to white people, 70 years compared to 76 years.

LyrArc Article Gist
Serious questions about the future of the car industry and investment in fuel efficient cars as a long term viable alternative, regardless of the specific price at the pump that reflects changing economic weakness in a global economy. Decisions that Obama will have to make in steering the auto industry in a new direction. Management and culture at the car companies remains as ever a big issue and this also will come up because fuel efficiency and making money on small cars and building the cars that the public wants and would pay good prices for, are a result of the resolve, skill and perseverance of management. The only thing that one can say for current management at GM and Chrysler is that it is entrenched and with the same culture that does things the way they have always been. It also lacks the vision and skills to make the changes to get Americans to buy more cars and small cars at prices where they are profitable to car companies. As it reminds us here for all the talk about fuel efficiency and cars, light trucks madeup 58% of GM's sales through November, 64% for Ford, and 72% for Chrysler. The market is bad for all car companies including Toyota and Honda, but things are much worse for the Big Three because of the way in which their sales are way skewed in the direction of SUV's and light trucks and the absence of winning models in the medium and small car segment that command good prices....

LyrArc Article Gist
Airbus and Boeing are expected to announce a net increase in orders of 50% in 2010, net of cancellations. Higher airline traffic is one reason, the other reason is that airline leasing companies are coming back in a big way. Lessors account for more than 35% of all orders at Airbus this year, up from 5% last year. At Boeing lessors have placed 21% of the orders, up from 12%. For Airbus and Boeing combined, the 27% of all orders placed by lessors is the highest proportion since 2000, according to Ascend Worldwide. Airbus and Boeing see lessors as more reliable buyers than airlines which are locked into their routes. Leasing companies are benefitting from funding by private equity, investment funds and commercial banks, which have taken up more than $18 billion in equity and debt issued by airplane lessors, according to Gary Liebowitz, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities. Many lessors are yielding 10%, far above what can be gained in other sectors. Banks are skittish about lending to airlines, but see lessors as less risky. Airlines need planes, but banks have restricted lending to airlines. Stricter financial regulations and higher borrowing costs for banks have reduced lending to all but the strongest airlines, says Kostya Zolotusky, managing director of capital markets development for Boeing's finance division. Investors like lessors because they can move planes to where they are needed worldwide, which is what happened after the financial crisis of 2008. Lessors make money by getting discounts on large orders of planes and then renting them out at higher rates to airlines. Airlines lease the planes for a few months to a number of years, when they can't afford to buy planes or need flexibility. The shift is significant, as Boeing expects one in two planes to be owned by lessors, compared to one in three today. AIG's unit, the International Lease Finance Corporation, faced problems during the crisis. ILFC has raised $9.4 billion in new debt issues in 2010 that allowed it to refinance existing debt and repay loans to the US government. There are risks, say some executives, if speculative orders and competition among lessors get Airbus and Boeing to make too many planes. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The use of Zyprexa in nursing homes, and Lilly's marketing of the drug as "requiring fewer skilled nursing staff hours", and "reduced caregiver stress." The lawsuit alleged that this meant it was " an effective chemical restraint for demanding, vulnerable and needy patients." Zyprexa has the risk of life-threatening infections like pneumonia and of heart failure in elderly patients. Lilly also marketed the use of Zyprexa to treat disruptive children, even though there are side effects of severe weight gain and metabolic disorders. The case is being prosecuted by the US Attorney's Office of the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. In the negotiations Lilly agreed to pay $1.2 billion to 31,000 Zyorexa plaintiffs. This is the biggest case and settlement of its kind.

LyrArc Article Gist
Economists point to a limited impact of Fed chairman Bernanke's $600 billion quantitative easing program. Interest rates decreased but only for companies with top credit ratings. Northwestern University Professors Krishnamurthy and Jorgensen, say rates for households and many corporations- mortgage rates and rates on lower grade corporate bonds- have for a large part not been affected by the Fed's second round of quantitative easing. Another economist Mickey Levy, of Bank of America, says the move has boosted the stock market, eased credit conditions, and suppressed the dollar, but no one really believes the Fed buying Treasuries and bulking up its balance sheet can create permanent jobs.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ideas being considered in the talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling are a one year extension of the 2 percentage point reduction in the payroll tax for employees. Changes in Social Security being considered are raising the eligibility age from 65 to 67, phasing in the increase till 2036. Another change would be to slow the adjustments in Social Security for inflation.

LyrArc Article Gist
Statistics from the Canadian government show that household debt in Canada now exceeds that in the USA. Household debt in Canada as a portion of disposable income was 148% in the third quarter, 2010, more than the US level of 147%. Canadians are taking on more debt. The average size of a mortgage is up from C$120,000 in 2004, to $170,000 as of last spring, according to CIBC World Markets.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the WSJ gives the background and positions taken by Patriarch Krill of the Russian Orthodox Church, and his support for the war in Ukraine as part of Russian lands nationalism. Russian lands nationalism is an idea that comes from the beginnings of the Russian version of Christianity that had its origins in Kviv Ukraine in the 10th century. Patriarch Krill has had a varied role questioning some some state policies and then backing off and supporting the state says WSJ. In 2011 patriarch Krill stood up for protesters critical of manipulation in parliamentary elections that year. Patriarch Krill grew up in the years of Soviet rule and was 24 in 1970 when he began his work in the church. He was rector of a seminary in Leningrad by 1984 and after being critical of the Soviets and war in Afghanistan was sent to Smolensk says this report in WSJ. After he returned he worked with the Soviet state, and after voicing concerns in 2011 about parliamentary elections described as manipulated he has supported the Russian state as it becomes assertive about Russian lands nationalism. To understand the Orthodox Church in Russia one has to know its presence in the post Soviet period. About 63% of Russians belong to the Orthodox Church. It also includes Ukrainians. After Crimean invasion by Russia the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that makes up one third of the Russian Orthodox parishes was recognized as a separate church by Patriarch Bartholomev of Constantinople. Patriarch Bartholomev and Pope Francis the two leaders of the eastern and western churches in Constantinople and Rome have been critical of Patriarch Krill and his support for the war and the idea of Russian lands nationalism. Since the war some parishes in Russia have signed a letter opposing the killing of brothers in Christ and one parish leader was fined $500 for his statements. There is now intense debate among Russians about what this war means in bringing conflict on brotherly peoples about their preferences in 2022 for aligning with Europeans in the western part of Europe. For most of Europe in the 21st century there is a big change, in the countries near the Baltic sea in Northern Europe, in countries in the middle of Europe, in Eastern Europe, the 21st century is seen as a time when states and peoples are making their own choices about freedom and what their preferences are particularly the young people. They no longer understand or conform to ideas of the earlier period or centuries. And this is what has made Ukrainian young people oblivious about what Russian lands nationalism means and its relevance today. Buddhism is today not prevalent in South Korea a democratic state and in China a Communist state in the way it existed for centuries. For it to be relevant people need to begin to believe in it as in Japan or Sri Lanka or Thailand. In the 21st century young people are making different choices and this may well be where the Ukraine war shows that people's choices count particularly in the 21st century, and it has little to do with the west or the US or NATO or even Russia. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange has seen a jump in the last week from an average of 4.26 billion shares traded daily in 2011, to an average daily volume of 7.31 billion shares in the first ten days of August 2011. Analysts say this reflects market anxiety, trading on conviction now compared to the light trading and a rising market in the earlier part of the year. The jump in volume also looks ominous as individual investors pull back say analysts.

LyrArc Article Gist
Unemployment in Spain among people ages 16-24 is 42.9%. This is the highest rate in Europe, and it is double the overall rate of 19.3% for Spain. By comparison the overall jobless rate in the USA for workers ages 16-24 is up to 19.1%. Why this high an unemployment rate for young workers? Greece has youth unemployment rate of 25%, while Ireland has a youth unemployment rate of 28.%, and Italy 26.9%. The rate in Poland is 21.2%, down from 35% a few years ago. In Eastern Europe overall the rate is 27.9%. This puts Spain at a level higher than Eastern European countries where youth unemployment has traditionally been higher. Worse, this is a result of a spike in unemployment from 17% at the height of the boom three years ago, to the currrent 43%. Alfonso Prieto, deputy secretary general of employment studies at the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, says this high rate in Spain is a result of a disproportionate share of Spanish youth employed on temporary contracts. During the boom years a large number of young workers joined a culture of temporary work, with the term "mil euristas," used for workers on 1000 euros a month. With the economy in trouble these were the first people laid off. Low skilled and immigrant workers who lost jobs are also reflected in the statistics, as Spain witnessed an influx of millions of immigrants during the boom. Still worse the government is under tremendous pressure from the EU and bond markets because its budget deficit reached 11% of GDP in 2011, and austerity measures are being adopted. Spain is spending 30 billion euros in unemployment benefits, but the money is not doing much to prepare workers for jobs in new industries or new vocations for the future. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Car sales in Germany are up 40% from ayear ago. This is not about to happen in the USA. The cash for clunkers program in Germany is broad and less complicated.In Germany eligible cars have to 9 years old and the subsidy covered the purchase of any new car, regardless of size and fuel efficiency. In the US the program just signed by President Obama covers a narrow profile of customers. In the US customers who benefitare economically challenged and in the midst of adeep recession. Cars can't be over 25 years old, and can't have a combined highway and city fuel economy rating of more than 18 miles per gallon as calculated by EPA. To get the full $4500 credit customers must buy either a new truck or sport utility rated 5mpg higher than the clunker or scrapped vehicle, or a passenger car rated at least 10 mpg higher.And the credit is given instead of the trade in value, so if the trade in value is higher it doesn't help. The German government is giving away upto $4500 but it started out with 1.5 billion euros to get 600,000 clunkers off the road, but because of the popularity of the program has expanded it to 5 billion euros for 2 million cars and extended it to end of 2009. The US program only has $1 billion for 250,000 cars or one eight of what the Germans are doing for amuch larger car market. Because of the dire shape Detroit and much of the midwest is in, because of the slump in the auto industry, this may be a mistake and a missed opportunity to do what the Europeans are doing, and get an even bigger impact. The American car market and industry is taking a severe blow from the deep recession. Because of the depressed region the impact of a real clunkers for cash program that targets a broader profile, with bigger financing and designed to give a boost to the market, could make a real difference. At this point it is more of a program designed to help people turn in their gas guzzling trucks for passenger cars, and those driving a $200 car are not likely to be the kind of customer who goes out and buys a new car say dealers. See the link to Alan Blinder's stimulus proposal in July 29, 2008, that suggested a $20 billion program even before the current crisis. The present program has only $1 billion....

LyrArc Article Gist
Nocera looks at the lack of efforts to help homeowners under water in the Obama administration. Sheila Bair comments on Geithner's role, as Geithner's book "Stress Test" provides little detail on how the Obama administration addressed the issue. A story by Dougherty in the WSJ on April 20, 2014, points out that about 10 million households in America are underwater in 2014, and another 10 million households have only 20% equity in their homes. Unemployment statistics in the same issue of the WSJ show 7 million people taking parttime jobs because they cannot find work. These households are critical for consumer spending to support growth. The weak economic recovery could very well be one of the results of poor policy decisions by the Obama administration including this one, when other alternatives proposed by Sheila Bair and Martin Feldstein were offered repeatedly in 2009-2010. Here Nocera documents the efforts by Senator Durbin to give homeowners rights to go to bankruptcy court to provide ways to negotiate ways out of foreclosure....