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Savings for China and Japan by increasing oil imports at low prices could amount to about 1% of the economy for each country. Japan imports of oil are one tenth of total imports, and amount to $75 billion. At prices half of what they were before coronavirus the savings are about $40 billion a year. This will offset some of the drop in economic growth of about 3% in the year ending March 2021.

For countries where the coronavirus has been relatively controlled with manufacturing and infrastructure projects ready to go ahead the benefit is greatest. China expects to see about 7% decline in GDP in the first quarter resulting in minimal growth for the year as long as export markets in the U.S. and Europe remain weak. For India it depends on how long the lockdown continues and how quickly economic activity can resume under new conditions. 

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The pandemic has affected Brazil, and Peru, Ecuador, the worst in Latin America. Countries where there was a lack of funding for public health and no consensus on how to tackle the crisis such as Brazil have done worse. Brazil has 11 deaths per 100,000 people compared to just 1.0 for Argentina. Chile with a political crisis and months of protests has no consensus in the country. It has done worse with 4 deaths per thousand and 95% of intensive care beds in the country taken, leaving hospitals overburdened and in stressful conditions. 

In Argentina the lockdown has been extended till June 7 and there appears to be a consensus on the government's approach to the crisis. Mexico under president Obrador decided to reopen earlier and now faces more coronavirus cases. Reopening the economy so that people in the informal economy could provide for their families was a priority for president Obrador. 

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In his farewell address Mr. Trump stated there were no new wars during his presidency- "the first president in decades who started no new wars." He also stated that he stood up to China- "we rallied the nations of the world to stand up to China like never before."

About the controversies that dogged his administration he said - "I did not take the easiest course, by far it was actually the most difficult. I did not seek the path that would get the least criticism. I took on the tough battles, the hardest fights, the most difficult choices, that's what you elected me to do."

He urged prayers for the new administration.

About the movement he started to defend borders, bring back American factories, Mr. Trump said - "The movement we started is just beginning. There has never been anything like it."

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The Oxford second generation vaccine is being developed to handle several strains of the mutating virus at the same time. The Oxford team developing the vaccine is following what the vaccine is doing, in the way it is mutating, to develop the new vaccine.

The Oxford vaccine uses a virus that has been modified to contain a piece of genetic code from the coronavirus. When injected it causes human cells to produce the coronavirus spike protein, which the immune system learns to recognize. A single vaccine would contain different lines of benign virus, each containing the genetic code for the spike protein of a different variant so that the immune system can recognize several mutated coronavirus strains at the same time. This is also how the flu vaccine works. 

Quick regulatory approval is expected with much smaller trials that would be followed by immunization shots given in September 2021 when winter arrives.

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Following the Gaza conflict in mid 2014, the situation in Nov. 2014 is one of continued unrest among young people in the West Bank. Here Rudoren and Kershner give a exceptional account of the feelings of Palestinians at the Askar refugee camp in the West Bank. With no prospect for a way out or the way ahead, and lack of confidence in the leadership, no peace talks, Palestinian young people engage in random acts of protest or violence. A decade of protest has put Palestine further behind in development, jobs, and economic progress. A decade of conflict has not reduced Israel's sense of insecurity, even as it has evolved into an advanced technological society. The situation of Jerusalem divides the two peoples, just as it did a decade ago under Palestinian leader Arafat. No novel or out of the ordinary solutions for Jerusalem that would preserve Jerusalem as a city open to Muslims, Christians and Jews, without a preeminent status for any one community, have been tried.

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British prime minister Theresa May's EU withdrawal agreement was defeated in the House of Commons by a vote of 344 to 286, a margin of 58 votes. 5 Labour MP's voted in favor, and 34 Brexiteer MP's in the European Research Group voted against. The Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland voted against. The vote did not include a declaration on the future relations with the European Union. The vote happened on March 29, the deadline for Britain to leave the EU. A new deadline of April 10 has been set to seek a longer extension.

Options going forward are to use a longer delay of a year to come up with consensus, have a second referendum, or hold a general election. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for Mrs. May to resign and hold a general election. Britain will hold European parliament elections in May.

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Krugman sees Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck stalling an overall stimulus plan for the whole of the EU. Merkel told a political party meeting that Germany "wasn't going to participate in this senseless race for billions." And Steinbruck said Britian was engaging in "crass Keynesianism". True Germany has not been on the debt financed consumption binge that the UK has been in and does not have a housing bubble bursting like the UK, but says Krugman Germany is also facing a crisis like the rest of Europe. Ifo, German Research Insttitute points to the worsening crisis in Germany as the worst since the 1940's. Part of the reason is that Germany is abig exporter and its medium sized companies are big exporters and a large part of the economy. With the slowdown in China and the rest of Asia these exports have been hit hard. See the links to this. What happens without acoordinated response in the EU? Krugman warns that it would lead to leakages in which the advantages of the stimulus by the rest of the EU would not be as effective as with a coordinated response including Germany the biggest EU nation. He expects Merkel to wake up to the need for this once she sees the new numbers. ...

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Rohan Premkumar in The Hindu provides this report of Chinese prisoners from the Opium wars of the 1850's sent to this "ancient sub-jail"in the Nilgiris hills Tamilnadu by the British.  These POW camps provided cheap indentured labor to establish tea plantations in the Nilgiri hills. It helped to bring in revenue for the Empire through tea cultivation. About $1 million was spent to renovate this building so that future generations know what happened here since the arrival of the British by 1800. By contrast Yuen Yuen Ang at John Hopkins University from Singapore is interviewed for the NYT by Ezra Klein on China's Xi Jinping and the autocracy with democracy characteristics that prevailed under Deng, without an awareness of this period. For Zhongxun and Qi Xin, Jinping's parents this period of the Opium Wars, Taiping Rebellion, Boxer Uprising from 1850's and British, European invasion, must have been very real in the 1930's. And added to this the Japanese invasion of China. This has deeply influenced Xi Jinping.  ...

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Three finance ministers, Mr. Sinha, Mr. Chidambaram and Ms. Sitharaman, have favored strong action on PMLA, the preventing money laundering law, saying that it is of serious importance for the integrity and sovereignty of the country, says the Indian Supreme Court as it reproduces these statements. All have argued at different periods in favor of the interpretation of the law consistent with the judgement given by a special bench of the Indian Supreme Court last week.  It has significance in another respect, which is in restoring the faith of hundreds of millions of ordinary citizens in the local, state and federal governments. A faith that has been seriously eroded since independence and which affects the development of infrastructure and modernization of India, and the building of the defense capabilities of the country that rest on making India an advanced economy similar to China. India cannot build up its own financial and human resources to tackle that task with the constant erosion of trust in the management of development and infrastructure and in delivery, that has and is taking place in the country today. ...

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 Edward Jenner invented the small pox vaccine in 1796. Before this a method called variolation was used. Pieces of fabric or threads moistened with a sick person's small pox postules were pulled through incisions in a person's arm. This was effective until Edward Jenner invented the vaccine itself for mass vaccination efforts. Tom Parfitt of The Times writes about how Catherine Empress of Russia invited Dr Dimsdale from Britain to give her the inoculation against smallpox. She became the first person to be inoculated in Russia and had the courage to do so after this method had been tried and successfully tested in Britain. Catherine writes in this letter to Count Rumyantsev that she had only mild discomfort. She then championed smallpox inoculation for the Russian people and says "it does not call for huge expenditure." Today the Russian government is making its best efforts to vaccinate the Russian people, yet only 38% are fully vaccinated. The example of a medical revolution 200 years ago and how it was handled in Europe is new inspiration for renewed efforts. ...

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The two waves of the coronavirus in India can be compared looking at the graphs and this report in the Times of India. The case volume and deaths in the worst hit state Maharashtra is shown here. The case volume increased by about 50% in the second wave but deaths were about half that in the first wave. Most of the deaths were in the people over 65 and most of the cases in the ages below 40 years. In the over 65 age only 5% have been vaccinated which means that medical management is still the best way of tackling the coronavirus. Vaccine supplies are the bottleneck and this is beginning to change- so that by August ample supplies of the vaccine should make the difference in bringing down cases and deaths.  Lockdowns are managed carefully so that the economy can recover in the second half of 2021 and in 2022.  Any assessment of the crisis management must take into account the speed of the response, its effectiveness, and keeping in mind the economic recovery needed following the pandemic. ...

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Forty years after a canal around Utrecht's old town was turned into a 12 lane motorway, the Dutch city is replacing the motorway with its 900 year old moat. Utrecht old city is now surrounded once again by greenery and water rather than concrete and fumes of exhaust. Efforts to sideline cars and bring back healthier living with bicycles began in 2002. The city was born in 1122. In 2017 the city opened a 12500 bicycle park next to the rail station. The central Zocherpark has been restored to 1830's design. This should be an inspiration for other cities in Europe. It is also a reminder for other cities in America, in Latin America, Asia and Africa to be careful before they let motorways take over. Even in the waterfront of American cities such as Chicago and Seattle the motorways have taken much space where greenery and fresh air would make for healthier living. Some French cities have done what Utrecht has done, supporting the general trend to return these wide healthy spaces back to the people.  ...

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The Paris climate change agreement involved 195 countries. Agreed to on December 12, 2015 it was seen as a major step forward to limit global warming to 2 degrees celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Progress has been slow in taking action since then. Because of covid 19 the Glasgow conference was cancelled. Hope stems from the goals set for carbon neutral economy of Japan, the EU, UK, China, and the U.S. as it enters the agreement after withdrawing.  Much will depend on action taken as the pandemic has pushed economic goals of recovery to the forefront. As India has shown in renewable energy, particularly in solar energy targets and bold vision, there is a lot that can be done by each country acting on its own without the hype of the agreement. India now sees huge opportunities in solar energy because it is cheaper and pollutes less than coal. This is a game changer that comes from investing in new technologies and taking advantage of India's abundant access to sunny weather and the lower labor and other costs. ...

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Krugman points out that even though the economy has the lowest unemployment and inflation has dropped significantly, wages of working class Americans are up significantly, there is a huge infrastructure building effort, and investment in Make in America, there appears to be a disconnect when people are asked about the economy. Many tend to say they are personally better off yet the economy is not doing so well which is not reflected in  what is happening on the ground. Part of the problem could be the pandemic and the economic difficulties of the last three years that is only now gradually changing for the better and that the benefits of the better economy have not reached all people. Part of it is also a reflection of culture and other wars where opinion on social issues is transferred to the economy whether it is real or not. The extent of the culture wars has grown and sometimes been stoked for personal or party interest to affect the true civic responsibilities of the people to offer their best judgement based on careful understanding and reflection. ...

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It is important to remember that FDR and Harry Truman won in North Carolina by huge majorities, so did Adlai Stevenson, John Kennedy, LBJ. In fact going back to Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. Democrat Josh Stein, Attorney General elected in 2020 and Republican Mark Robinson, the Lt. Governor are very different candidates for governor in North Carolina. Rory Cooper, a Democrat, who won by 4 percentage points is not running after two terms as popular governor because of term limits.  Cooper's focus has been on education, ease of living, infrastructure and clean energy. North Carolina has one of the largest rural populations in the country with one in three being rural with new out of state residents settling in the suburbs. In recent years it has generally voted for a Democrat as governor and Republican for the legislature. Only in  elections since 1980 except in 2008 it has voted Republican for president. In 2024 it is expected to be a swing state. If elected Robinson would be the first black governor of North Carolina, Stein the first Jewish governor.   ...

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Much as the average American does not like too many numbers that confuse and sources that may be incorrect. It does not have to be that way and it is important to know what can mean ease of living for all. Trump 2017 tax cuts have been studied in detail at Princeton, U of Chicago, Harvard, and Treasury Department. The effects are that it is adding $100 billion each year to the national debt of $34 trillion. And gains to individual workers are only about $750 a year not the $4000 promised per worker. The corporate tax rate was reduced from top rate of 35% to 21%, and investment spending was given accelerated deduction for income taxes. The studies show investment growth in years after 2017 was the same as the years before. To test if the rate of investment was slowing and the law pushed it up studies show this not to be the case. It was also shown that accelerated deduction of investment was more effective in increasing investment for individual companies based on 12000 corporate returns studied. ...

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The US Fed under Jerome Powell is going to raise interest rates one more time in 2023 following rate increases in 2022- by a quarter percentage point this week. This is not only a fight against inflation but a way to reverse a situation that has affected the wealth and standard of living of ordinary Americans by reducing interest on savings to a paltry less than one percent. Only stock market investors benefitted under the previous regime widening income and wealth disparities in America. Just as today's story in the WSJ showing Bath and Body Works returning to basics such as producing soap in America, something that would not even have been given a second of thought in the 1900's, the Fed is doing its job under Jay Powell of going back to the basics. Where interest on savings provided retirees a comfortable stress free retirement and the inducement to save help build a savings pool in America to invest in what really improves the standard of living for all Americans across this country, from rural to urban, from all parts of the land. ...

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NYT looks at the corruption in city government in Los Angeles. During the turn of the century Tammany Hall was a term used for the organization down to city wards that controlled city government and under city bosses led to much corruption. Rapid real estate development in the city of Los Angeles with Chinese developers investing in building high rise office and other buildings in the city led to corruption. A large concentration of power, the lack of news coverage from local sources as one of the effects of the internet, surges in real estate growth, have led to reduced attention to the effects of corruption in the city of Los Angeles and in the state of California. Jose Huizar on the City council and Raymond Chang deputy mayor are shown here in this NYT report to be convicted of racketeering charges.  Over a decade 576 public officials in California have been convicted on federal corruption charges, according to Justice Department reports, says the NYT. This is more than the number of cases in states better known for public corruption, including New York, New Jersey and Illinois. ...

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Kashmir region has a long history that has been lost in the coverage since 1947 as the colonial rule ended in the region with intermittent peace and conflict. For 7 centuries since 100BC there was Hinduism from the Vedic period, then Buddhism, followed by 7 centuries of Shiva religion, till the 15th century. In the 15th century  Islam entered the region for 3 centuries till the Sikhs and Sikhism a religion around deity Ram around 1819, and the British after 1850. The British set up a protectorate in Kashmir under the British Empire ruled by a Sikh king from 1850 to 1948. What this says is that after a unsettled period till 1948 to 2020, the region is likely to return to its history of tolerance for different people from South Asia, with one huge difference, the rapid modernization of the region in the 21st century replacing the feudal poverty and backwardness of a overtaxed and underdeveloped farmers communities. This is a trend back to Kashmir's true history over 15 centuries since 100BC which is irreversible. ...

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After the Biden years when foreign born employment surged the decrease by 773,000 shown by Trend Macro in foreign born employment in the WSJ is an adjustment from the effects of open border policies. This also prevents downward pressure on wages for American workers in construction, hospitality and retail- the story of the last 20 years. This is similar to what would have been seen in the Eisenhower years after Operation Wetback led by Gen. Swing and AG Brownell in 1954. Just as by 1956 the foreign born employment declined after years of uninhibited growth and open borders in the years of World War II. Note that Mexico's agribusiness owners were against open borders in that period and the Mexican government was also against open borders and the loss of labor from Mexico needed in agribusiness. Today the situation is somewhat different but in the sense of an adjustment it may be very similar. Just as in 1956 Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 had a mandate for making this adjustment DJT has won a mandate for a similar adjustment in 2024. ...

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South Korea's crowded hospital environment and Asian culture of being in continual close proximity for caretakers lets the MERS virus spread. The government's failure to alert hospitals of known cases means doctors are totally unaware of the MERS outbreak until many patients with MERS were transferred to larger hospitals in Seoul. The result inhaled droplets of MERS virus and rapid spread. The government feared there would be panic in the neighborhoods and acted too late. The known cases of MERS virus reached 95 cases, and 2500 people are being monitored. All this happened in a few days- The first infected patient was at an hopital in Asan, south of Seoul on May 12-14, 2015. He was sent to a larger hospital St Mary's in Pyeongtaek, near Seoul, with no one knowing he had been to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. From there he was transferred to Samsung Medical Center in Seoul, and he was diagnosed for MERS virus on May 20. By this time 37 people at MERS were infected, and one of them admitted to Samsung hospital in Seoul infected a large number of people there. President Park Geun-hye's Gallup Korea approval rating dropped six percentage points to 34%, and the government moved to make an "all-out response."...

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This report in WSJ looks at the Biden education, healthcare and climate change plan. It is part of the Families and Workers Plan put forward by president Biden for $3.6 trillion. This figure has now been lowered to $2 trillion and may drop crucial provisions for education such as the cost free community college which poses serious risks for working class families unable to afford community college, and skews education access even further to higher income families. It also lowers college attendance of American men, which is falling to alarming levels. The reason the plans are being whittled down is the 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the failure of Republicans and two Democrat senators Manchin of West Virginia, Sinema of Arizona to support community college access. Parts of the current bill support child care, access to affordable housing and in home care for elderly Americans. New elections for Senate and House of Representatives in 2022 would have to settle the issues related to financing assistance for families and workers as the Senate today is divided 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. A separate Bipartisan Infrastructure package has the support of all in the US Congress to build bridges and roads, other infrastructure badly neglected by different administrations over the last 2 decades. ...

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50 years from 1975 and the passing away of the 40 year Franco era, and 44 years from 1981 and joining the European Economic Community Spain is still finding its way. This report from Spain in The Times of London looks at the period before 1975 when Spanish politicians of every party came together to support the transition to democracy and becoming part of the European Union. He looks with dismay at the fractious nature of today's politics and the frequent name calling, Socialists under Sanchez and the Partido Popular, Vox party, Podemos, failing to agree on how to handle the Catalonian independence movement. Those who supported autonomy for Catalonia and the Basque region in 1975 did this not as a pathway to the breakup of Spain, but to give room for regional aspirations and difference in language and traditions within the federal union of Spain. Much of this was forgotten in the politics of Arturo Mas and other politicians from Catalonia. Catalonia is now run by the Socialist party, elsewhere in Spain  the Vox party and Partido Popular in Andalusia and the Madrid region remain popular. The financial debt and housing crisis in Spain, the pandemic and other economic problems have affected Spain similar to the rest of Europe, creating problems in the economy which only now have been overcome.  ...

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Utah governor Spencer Cox and call for introspection on open debate and discussions without rancor and strife. Cox launched a “Disagree Better” campaign in 2023 with Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis in an effort to restore civility and respect in open debate between differing viewpoints. After all there have been strident difference of opinion since the founding of the Nation and the many crises it has faced. The years leading to the Declaration of Independence to the War with Mexico, the Civil War, the peace movement before World War II, the McCarthy years, Nixon years, and the strife over DJT rhetoric and style of politics. Cox says- “It’s important to understand that in our political system today all of the incentives are lined up against this concept of dignity and respect,” he added. “We made a decision that we would only run for this position if we could do it in a different way and it had to be a positive vision.”  “Social media is a cancer in our society right now, and I would encourage people to log off, turn off, touch grass, go hug a family member, go out and do good in the community."   ...

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Jens Thurau writes about a holiday trip to Fohr on the Wadden Sea on north German coast from Berlin by rail, on Deutsche Bahn, July 27 2025. Thurau writes about the travails of DB, the sudden announcements that the train is headed in another direction, having to get off and catch a regional train. On the return trip the train making a stop when sheep cause rail delays on the rail line further up, the train canceled an having to take aintercity regional express to Berlin. The employees struggle too as the conductor on the return trip offers vouchers from DB to passengers and his apologies. Many DB employees having to deal with customer complaints are planning to leave.  Next trip Jens plans to drive to Fohr.  DB has suffered for years with lack of investment on the 2800 mile rail network. Thanks to chancellor Merkel who never gave priority to such investment and who Jens says called the internet "uncharted territory" in 2013, the digital part of the German economy and DB, along with infrastructure has also suffered. The Scholz coalition promised but failed to deliver on infrastructure with opposition from FDP finance minister Lindner. Only in 2025 has the new coalition of Merz with SDP has the constitutional provision limiting infrastructure spending of Merkel been removed, and DB put on the way to modernizing German rail connections starting with the Berlin Hamburg line. ...