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There is a price for a socialist state run society adopting capitalism without understanding it. Russia experienced this in the 1990's as the Soviet system collapsed and the capitalist system took its place by 1990 with flagrant abuses. Only to be stabilized in the Putin years till the war in Ukraine affected the Russian economy. China avoided this fate by continuing its accelerated path to industrialization till the 2009 financial crisis. But hidden in its seemingly successful modernization effort was the role of LGFV's and selling of land to support the LGFV's. Local governments did not take on debt themselves, they passed on the debt to Local Government Financing Vehicles LGFV's- about 8 trillion dollars of debt 80%-90% not serviceable for interest payments, zombie status requiring borrowing for annual spending.  Most city councils or mayors did not understand these vehicles were debt and some even asked "do we have to pay it back?" LGFV's were not understood by mayors and city councils brought up under a socialist state run economy. They used it to follow the central government in Beijing's orders to come up with projects to boost growth year after year to rates of growth of 10% in the 1990's and 2000's, heedless of the risks because they never really understood the capitalist system and its pitfalls.  As long as land could be sold there was some revenue for local governments and room for shifting $8 trillion in debt to other LGFV's. Once the construction industry collapsed and companies went bankrupt their were few buyers for land. The central government cannot take on some of this $8 trillion in debt. As a result China is now facing what the Russians faced - a crisis from lack of grasp of the severe pitfalls of capitalism when its risks are not understood for economies that were in the 20th century experiencing upheavals, wars and then socialist state run economies. What this means is that the Chinese economy will slow, has no choice but to slow down for the next decade to find solutions to this debt overhang over its economy and industrial plans. It also means China's support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict is also problematic for China's internal growth to meet the aspirations of its people. As long as the administration in the US continues to pursue its own economic policies for growth as Biden has done by investing in the American economy, it will have the opportunity to lead the free world and be able to hold out hope for aspirations of countries and regions such as India, Africa and Latin America. ...

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Indian exports to US drop from $8.8 to $5.5 billion May to September drop of 37%. A trade agreement is likely and should be similar to Japan's or EU where with Japan it is now 15% and with EU it is 10%, both key allies of the US. India is also a key ally in Asia requiring the DJT administration -once it gets over Modi-DJT differences on the nuclear aspect of the India-Pakistan 48 hour conflict in 2025, and India reverts to getting oil and energy from non Russian sources as it did in 2019, and issues of agricultural exports to India- to drop this tariff of additional 25% for Russian oil and drop the basic tariff of 25% to 15% as the US did with Japan. At 15% Japan and India will still be able to compete with China's 47% (dropped from 57%) to export to the US.  The result can be positive for India as it improves it's cost effectiveness to export to the US and EU, with rapid investment to improve logistics, and streamlining import of technologies and machinery to rapidly cut costs of production. ...

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The U.S. Fed FOMC's decision to continue paring bond purchases by $10 billion monthly. Fed chairman Bernanke said in 2011 responding to criticism from other countries -"it is upto emerging markets to find the appropriate tools to balance their own growth." The Fed Open Market Committee voted 10-0 to continue tapering bond purchases, by reducing it to $65 billion a month from $75 billion a month. The Fed is forecasting growth for 2014 of 3% in 2014 and over 3% in 2015 can be made without sparking inflation. 2013 growth estimated by the Commerce Dept is 2.7%.

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The House healthcare bill that just passed by amargin of 220 to 215. The cost would be $1.055 trillion over 10 years, with cost of $894 billion factoring in penalties for individuals and businesses that don't buy insurance. Adding increased coverage for Medicare prescirption drug coverage for seniors its around $1.2 trillion. $460 billion is from new taxes on single people with income of over $500,000 or couples with inocme of $1 million. There are $400 billion in cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, and additional money coming from penalties for not buying insurance. First column here is Senate version, second for House version and third President's version. Other features individuals must have insurance or pay afee of 2.5% of income, hardhip waivers will be available. Employers must provide insurance to employees or pay a penalty of 8% of payroll. Small businesses with fewer than 10 workers get tax credits. The threshhold is $500,000 of payroll. To help families with lower incomes and the poor the bill provides: families earning $29,000 a year pay no more than 1.5% of income for premiums. Families with incomes of $88,000 ayear would pay no more than 12% of income for premiums. ...

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Altran says the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has evolved into avery different organization. It has about 100,000 supporters in a population of 80 million. Altran and other experts estimate that at the most it would get about the support of ony 20% of the people and over the years it has emerged as a moderate political party in Egypt, with its current focus on establishing free expression and democratic rights in Egypt.

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According to the General Accountability Office inquiry, 28 drug products had price increases over 100% in 2000, in 2008 71 drug products had such large increases. Medicines like Adderall for attention deficit disorder, Inderal for chest pain, Sumycin for infections were in the list of 416 brand name drug products where makers or distributors raised prices at least once by 100% or more for period 2000-2008. As large pharmaceutical companies sold their marginally profitable drug products or small selling products to smaller companies, these smaller companies would immediately increase prices to recover the money they paid to the large pharmaceutical companies. 26 of the brand name products saw prices raised 10 fold. A third of the drugs with large price increases treat depression and disorders of the central nervous system.

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In all elections since 2002 Mr. Erdogan has prevailed except June 2015. Much of the support for Erdogan is a result of economic gains by Turkey including 70% rise in per capita incomes since 2003.  These gains are under threat now because of heavy dependence on foreign investment and the decline of the currency Lira from 2.15 to the dollar in 2014 to 4.50 to the dollar in June 2018, losing half its value since the election of 2014. Experts say recent developments in Turkey have dented investor confidence, with investors uncertain about Mr. Erdogan's plans. The presidential candidate most likely to face Erdogan in a runoff election if Mr. Erdogan does not get 50% of the vote on June 24 is Mr. Muharrem Ince. Ince says he sees a wind of change, saying Turks are "very tired of this one-man regime" and that unlike before the economic trouble is so severe and harder to cover. This time the opposition is better coordinated and the secular CHP Party which was once dominant after Ataturk, is running in an alliance with traditional Islamist party Saadet, and with new secular nationalist Iyi party. Erdogan has called early elections a year and half ahead of time because he sees the economic troubles are at an early stage and his AKP Party would do better now than in 18 months when the economy may be in worse shape than it is now. ...

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A Land Rover takes president Biden and Jill Biden into Windsor Castle where he has tea with Queen Elizabeth. Even at 95 years Biden says the Queen was as keen as ever to know what is happening in the world. Biden tells reporters "She was very gracious. She reminded me of my mother." The couple met the Queen earlier at a reception for G-7 leaders at the Eden Project, an ecocenter with tropical rainforest and Mediterranean environments.

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This report in WSJ shows how the situation in Syria changed since 2011. The Kurds are spread out over several states formed as the British and French empires in the Middle East collapsed, leaving an ethnic group of 30 million people spread out over Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey.

A Kurdish zone was set up in northern Syria after the collapse of ISIS in operations by the U.S. and the Kurds in 2016-2018. A border area was taken by Turkey in the recent push by Turkish forces into border areas bordering Turkey, with the withdrawal of U.S. forces and Mr. Trump placing sanctions on Turkey. The incursion ended in a week after Russia agreed to broker a deal and the Kurdish forces left the border with Turkey. Turkey has Kurdish people in the southeast of the country who participate in elections and are Turkish citizens, and Iraq has an autonomous region run by the Kurds.

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Intel CEO Andy Grove in the 1990's wrote about his experience with the Japanese competitors in semiconductors, about the unlimited access to funds from the government, mysterious workings of Japanese capital markets that provided endless low cost capital to export oriented companies. These subsidies enabled Japanese companies to underprice Intel as he wrote in his 1996 book "Only the Paranoid Survive," and revealed an internal Japanese sales memo. It said: "Win with the 10% rule ... Find AMD and Intel sockets... Quote 10% below their price...if they requote, go 10% AGAIN... Don't quit till you WIN."  Peter Coy of NYT interviews Pat Gelsinger, CEO of Intel Corporation, on the effort with the help of the Biden administration to regain leadership in chip manufacturing technology. Biden, Gelsinger and American companies with such experience have no illusions about the competition. Intel plans to do this with $100 billion investment over 5 years in manufacturing and research and design of advanced chips, with projects in Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon and Ohio. To level the playing field with Taiwan and China -where as in Japan in the past the government pushes subsidies to its companies to gain competitive advantage in key industries- president Biden is supporting Intel with $11 billion in low cost loans and $8.5 billion in grants, plus $25 billion in investment tax credits.  ...

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This story in the NYT showing America's GE building a wind turbine three times as large as the Statue of Liberty in New York harbour, comes after a decade of bad news from GE, beginning with its role in the mortgage financial crisis when its stock dropped to new lows. Bad bets on conventional power generation in its power division are leading to the change at GE where it is now investing in renewable energy. Under CEO Immelt GE did not anticipate the surge in growth of renewable energy powered by government subsidies. Now GE is pursuing an aggressive strategy by building larger wind turbines than its competitors Vestas in Denmark and Senvion in Germany. A 12 megawatt turbine is planned by GE called Haliade-X, to be built at a cost of $400 million for demonstration in 2019, shipping units in 2021. Competitors are looking at building a 10 megawatt wind turbine. Vestas SA and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have a 9.5 megawatt wind turbine in operation as prototype in Denmark. The bit of good news comes with the backdrop of big changes at GE as its power division falters badly. GE under Immelt badly misjudged the market for gas and coal turbines, building inventory and resorting to aggressive pricing, not anticipating the push evident in Germany and in China towards renewable energy. The shift to renewable energy reduced demand for conventional power in Germany and the U.S. In Germany. Electric companies in conventional power generation are struggling. At GE orders declined by 25% and profits by 50% in the 4th quarter over the prior year. 12,000 job cuts are planned in the power division, 18% of its workforce. Older board members at GE are expected to leave, and GE under new CEO/Chairman John Flannery plans to shed $20 billion in assets in a major restructuring and shift to renewables.   Larger wind turbines of 10 megawatts or larger are the next stage in wind energy as the Netherlands and Germany move to build wind farms free of subsidies. The economics of larger wind turbines are critical as less geographic acreage is needed with larger turbines. ...

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Upward mobility in China was weak and income growth for average workers sluggish during the years before the coronavirus outbreak. In this sense China is similar to the U.S. and Europe where upward mobility gains after the second world war were lost in the last 30 years partly from the loss of manufacturing to China. It is much worse now as the effects of the coronavirus lead to drops of as much as a third in income for ordinary workers. Lower income workers, the vast majority of Chinese numbering hundreds of millions now suffer from lost work or diminished wages. Small businesses cannot afford to pay the salaries paid before and as workers dip into savings or increase borrowing the retail spending is taking a hit. As a result economists see a vicious cycle of lower spending and lower incomes for the hundreds of millions of ordinary workers in construction and smaller businesses. Some small businesses could just close down because of weak demand affecting the economy over the long term. Before the coronavirus China went over three decades from being a Communist country with relatively equal distribution of wealth but lack of growth and technological development to a capitalist country with the structure of state control of the economy from the Communist period. The result is that 1% of the people control 33% of the wealth and the bottom 25% having 1% of the wealth, according to a 2015 Peking University study. China's president Xi Jinping, head of the Communist party, tried to reverse some of these trends by attacking corruption and making changes that began the task of reversing decades of unequal distribution of wealth under state sponsored capitalist growth. Investments were made in rural medical care, infrastructure and basic services. This did not have much impact because much of the pattern of growth over three decades continues including the housing bubble.  With coronavirus the trend is set for even more unequal distribution of wealth as many workers at the bottom half of the population in incomes either lose work, or see drop in incomes as businesses that hire them struggle from shoe factories to other retail business. Reports of informal economy and street markets in Chengdu in western China and bringing this part of the economy back by the state are effort to get people work in other ways. Researchers estimate that China's bottom 60% of household in incomes lost about $200 billion in income in the first half of 2020. In May premier Li Keqiang said 600 million people in China earn only about $140 a month. Many who lost income or jobs do not have support from the government as China lacks a program of comprehensive unemployment insurance as in Europe and the U.S. to help people get over bad times. 300 million migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to loss of income and dipping into savings.   ...

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Larry Fink thinks there has been for retirement "an historical shift from certainty to uncertainty," from security in the earlypost war years of Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and LBJ to precarious living in the post Reagan era of "free to choose." It is mind boggling to grasp the idea that 4 in 10 Americans lack $400 in emergency funds for a health emergency. It has been hard to wrap my mind around such a fact. Are you in the same boat? Larry Fink CEO of Black Rock financial firm with half of its $10 trillion of funds in investment assigned to retirement has joined us. Fink says- "America needs an organized high level effort to ensure that future generations can live out their lives in dignity." He wants some hard conversations. And here are his initial thoughts- Create predictable income streams like pensions for all workers including lower paid or part-time workers.  Follow 20 states in setting up retirement systems to cover all workers, including gig and part time workers in lower paid income jobs. This covers a huge number of workers counted by the millions who perform the work that makes the country and the economy run. From workers in restaurants to hospitality workers, and in lower paid health care jobs, in help for the elderly, help for children in child care. Encourage employers to offer matching funds. ...

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French president Hollande's approval ratings dropped to a new low of 12% in a survey by TNS Sofres. In 2013 Hollande's approval ratings dropped to 26% before increasing to 30% after the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attacks in Jan. 2015. The recent terrorist attacks, France's high unemployment rate, his appearance of being indecisive, and the new labor law, have increased Hollande's unpopularity. As a result his colleague in the Socialist Party, prime minister Manuel Valls, now plays an important role in the administration. Middle class workers 35-49 years are the group where Hollande does poorly. Former president Sarkozy's rating never dropped below 30%. Compared to Hollande, Merkel of Germany has an approval rating that is far better at 54% and Obama in the U.S. of 56%. Merkel has achieved this following the differences in Germany over letting in large numbers of immigrants, and Obama after 8 years in office and differences in the Democratic Party on trade and economic policy. Trudeau in Canada has an approval rating of 63%. ...

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Senior officials from Russia and OPEC producers meet in Jeddah in April 2018 to work out plans to continue cuts in production to reduce inventories and lift oil prices. The deal was first made in 2016 to reduce the glut then prevailing that led to a slump in oil prices to the $50 per barrel level. The agreement has worked to remove about 2% of world oil production. Healthy demand in 2018 from economies of Europe and America has helped lift oil prices with the cuts in production in place to $70 per barrel. A reinstatement of sanctions on Iran could limit supplies from Iran. Venezuelan production is down in its current economic crisis. Russia says it is 100 percent committed to compliance with the agreement with Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries. It was the lack of agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia with each going its own way following the Russian intervention in Syria favoring Iran that increased the glut in oil supplies in 2015 leading to a fall in oil prices. For some time this hurt the Russian economy and Russia responded by actively devaluing its currency to maintain economic stability and internal growth. The Saudis were hit too by the fall in oil prices limiting new investments in the economy. The new agreement between Russia and the Saudis/OPEC comes after mutual interest has prevailed in the relations of OPEC  and Russia over the geopolitics in the region between Iran supported by Russia and the Saudis. It also comes as relations between the U.S. and Russia are worsening, with increasing investments in the military. ...

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Google, Meta, Apple, Microsoft effort to cancel all AI regulation by states, effectively leaving AI unregulated. What was Senator Ted Cruz doing sponsoring a 10 year rule of this kind that required protections to be put in place for child online safety so that the dangerous AI law for unregulation, no supervision, would not intrude into other areas such as child online safety. What was Senator Blackburn of Tennessee thinking when she joined that effort and had second thoughts pulling back to 5 years from 10 years of unregulated AI. Everyone from the entire Democratic caucus, Steve Bannon and advocacy groups fighting for citizen control over AI, and many Republican Senators who were not clear why such a law was being proposed by AI interests and Cruz's willingness to take the Tech monopolies interests in a dangerous direction of no regulation. “The way these provisions are written, they’re very sweeping, and they would trip up almost any attempt to regulate the harmful use of AI.”  -Ed Wytkind, interim director of the AFL-CIO’s technology institute. “Google and Meta had AI amnesty in the bag yesterday at 10 a.m. Then the Article III Project and Steve Bannon’s War Room sprang into action. Sometimes feeling the heat makes people see the light. We are pleased 99 senators finally decided to side with kids and content creators over AI amnesty and Big Tech profits.”-Mike Davis founder Article III Project ...

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There is a mixed picture behind the drop in investment in new oil exploration. The IEA estimates that overall investment will be down 15-20% in 2009. The number of drilling rigs in use globally fell 32% in the year to April 2009, to 2055, according to Baker-Hughes, an oilfield services firm. In America the number of rigs in use is down by 50%, and OPEC countries are cancelling 35 big projects, according to the OPEC secretary general, Salem Al-Badri. Cambridge Energy Associates estimates that 5.5 million barrels a day of capacity additions may not take place in the next couple of years, which is a third of expected net increase by 2014. Examine this a bit more closely and you find that the oil majors despite lack of access to oil in inhospitable terrain or foreign countries, are still holding up well in investment. Exxon increased capital spending by 5% in the 1st quarter 2009, and Shell and Chevron plan to invest the same in 2009 as in 2008, $31 billion and $23 billion. BP plans to go from $21 billion to $20 billion. Canadian Tar Sands investments are being reevaluated in the light of prices, and smaller companies like Devon Energy are cutting back, for Devon from $9 billion in 2008 to $4 billion in 2009. From the national oil companies the investments are holding up in Saudi Arabia, whereas they are faltering in Russia and cash strapped Venezuela. Saudi Aramco recently completed a 5 year project increasing capacity from 10m b/d to 12.5 b/d at cost of $70 billion. And another $60 billion is set aside for more investments which will be less vigorously pursued as Saudis have 4.5m b/d of idle capacity after production cutbacks by OPEC. Petrobras plans to increase its investment by 55% to $174 billion in the next 5 years in offshore discoveries challenged by deep waters and thick layers of salt. The oilfield services companies like Schlumberger are cutting back, with Schlumberger cutting investment in 2009 by 13% to $2.6 billion and shedding 5000 jobs. Baker Hughes shed 3000 jobs. Mature fields are also receiving less investment, so that the drop from mature fields will be 9.4% according to IEA instead of 7.7% projected earlier with larger investments. The picture described above shows investments by the Saudis, the majors, oil field services firms, investments in recovery improvements in mature fields, not in a precipitious decline. The picture is of cautious and careful investment and some pullbacks as the economies of the US suffered decline in GDP of 6% in the 1st quarter 2009 over prior year and the German and Japanese economies suffered decline of 15-16%. Even the most optimistic forecasts for China do not go above 8% for 2009. In the light of these growth estimates the moderate drop in investments in new oil exploration may match the moderation in growth in Asia and the drop in growth in the USA and Europe and Japan. The forecasts of steeply higher oil prices or spikes like those in 2007-2008 are based on the notion of a quick economic recovery. See the links to economic recovery on this. These links suggest that the current surge may not last as the basics for a recovery are weak. In the US foreclosures, toxic assets, housing, consumption and savings, and unemployment all indicate a weak economy for several years down the road. And it is this weakness that the oil investment exploration budgets may be responding to in amoderated manner. The latest sign of this weakness is the spread of foreclosures to prime borrowers with job losses, link NYT May 24, 2009. The Saudi king thinks that $75 is a fair price for oil. Current prices have taken oil to $60 a barrel, even as inventories remain strong with over 60 days of supply. No spikes like those in the past are realistic in this economic environment....

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The economic crisis in Turkey in 2022 wiped out half of the value of the lira. Inflation surged. The war in Ukraine hurt Turkey as it is dependent on Ukraine for grain supplies. The surge in fuel prices and the weaker currency meant higher inflation and more of its scarce foreign reserves going to imports of oil and gas. Net foreign reserves dropped to $6 billion in July, coming back up to $26 billion by December 2022.  President Erdogan maintained close relations with Russia to have access to  Russian oil and gas. Turkey has increased exports to Russia by 45% including clothing, household appliances and electronics. Russia is considering postponement of $20 billion owed for natural gas imports. And Russia transferred $5 billion to Turkey in July for a nuclear plant, with $10 billion expected later on. This helps cover the more than $100 billion the Turkish central bank used in 2022 to support the currency Lira. Erdogan's foreign policy has been to act as an intermediary in a UN negotiation for opening the Black Sea shipments of grain from Ukraine and fertilizer exports from Russia. This helps Arab countries in North Africa including Egypt which depend on Ukraine for vital grain supplies.  Everything Erdogan does says a former foreign minister is designed to push up his poll ratings which have risen about 5 percentage points from a low of about 39% in January of 2022 to about 44%. Inflation at 57% in Jan 2023 is still hurting ordinary people in Turkey and the outcome of the May 2023 election after 20 years of Erdogan in power is uncertain.  ...

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Just 1% over 10 million pounds of wealth would raise 42 billion pounds from 22,000 individuals and take pressure off the National Health Service in Britain. The capital gains made during the period of Covid has further distorted incomes by hollowing out blue collar workers and increasing incomes of remote white collar workers during the pandemic. The wealth tax would simply reverse this additional element that added to the increasing inequality of the last 2 decades during the pandemic. It would add to general wellbeing in Britain without affecting the individual ability and innovation. In fst by diverting some of the funds to education it could enhance the ability to innovate and take risks in business.

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The message to the US from Jackson, Mississippi which shut off its water for fears from aging infrastructure is that the US needs to replace its aging pipes and pumps. Short term patches are not the solution and don't work. Half of the 1600 miles of water main that distribute water through New Orleans are over 80 years old. In Santa Cruz, California, a single pipe goes from the reservoir to the city, with no backup. President Biden has allocated $55 billion for safe drinking water- the actual need is $1 trillion says the American Water Works Association. This WSJ report looks at the problem in different parts of the US.

 

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Samsung shipments of Galaxy smartphones S4 is estimated at 7 million per month for the 2nd quarter of 2011, increasing from the 6 million a month for the earlier model S3 smartphones, but much lower than the expected 10 million a month S4 shipments. Because other manufacturers can also make the Android smartpones and the uncertain reception for new features such as waterproof or large zooming camera lens, the sales of the Galaxy models do not have the same momentum as they did in 2012. Samsung gets over 70% of operating profits from smartphones. According to IHS iSuppli 63% of smartphone components are sourced inhouse by Samsung providing a cushion for margins and profits. Unlike Apple Samsung makes its own displays and memory chips preferring to do manufacturing within the company. About 5.7% of Samsung's operating profit in 2012 was from sales of components to Apple, according to Sanford Bernstein. Markets have apparently priced in the slower sales of Galaxy and the prospect of a drop in smartphone prices, with Samsung stock price down 10% in June 2013, and the share price at 6.4 times forecast 2013 earnings, according to FactSet. Apple shares trade at 10.8 times 2013 earnings....

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Global smartphone shipment sales are dropping with sticker shock over new smartphone prices, dropping 7% worldwide, and 15% in China in third quarter 2018, according to Canalys. Apple sales have stagnated in China at 8% market share, and shipments volumes have declined by 11% in 2018. Apple gets 20% of its sales revenue from China. Apple is now in fifth place behind Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi in China. Each of the Chinese brands gained from 2 to 5% increase in market share while Apple with its high pricing has stagnated. Apple had high hopes for the Apple XR priced at $945 and ordered large volume of the phone for sale in China. It now has excess unsold inventory of that phone as Chinese competitors with prices at little over half the Apple price the Huawei Mate 20 are proving to be strong competitors. The fact that the Chinese market has declined by 15% in smartphone shipments hurts Apple, even though trade tensions have not created anti-Apple sentiment.   ...

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Since 2000 the area under millet cultivation in India is steadily declining, reversing only since 2015. In 2006 millet was taken regularly by 39% of the population in India. By 2021 it had declined to 9 days a month. The area under cultivation for nutri-cereals declined from 41 million hectares in the 1980's to 24 million hectares in 2018 The reason being low yields, processing hand pounding millets time consuming laborious task of women, very little marketed.

Over the last 10 years production of sorghum (jowar), has declined, of pearl millet (bajra) stagnant, finger millet (ragi) also declining. Productivity of jowar and bajra has increased only marginally.

With these problems India if it is to realize the mission for millets in India's food supplies and nutrition, and export to the world, has to use mechanized hulling, better seeds, and improved agricultural practices, access to markets.

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Russian seaborne crude shipments are up 18% as of June 11 over the prior year, Iran's shipments up even more by 45%. The result is increased supplies even though the Saudis tried to increase oil prices by limiting production. China's economy is slowing and faces headwinds that will not go away anytime soon of debt close to 290% of GDP higher than US or Europe. And lower imports by the US and EU as they correct the mistakes of overconcentration in China. The European Union faces high inflation and a mild recession. This is cutting demand as supplies increase. It will help the Biden administration as it seeks to give all Americans a fair chance to improve their standard of living, by reducing the cost of living and investing in the economic potential of the country in a way no other adminstration has done in the last 40 years.

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Latin America makes up about half the world's deaths in the last 2 weeks of June with over a million infected in Brazil, and millions pushed back into poverty.

Mexico's antipoverty agency says 10 million, Peru 2.5 million says the central bank will be pushed into poverty. A entire generation of gains on poverty could be wiped out in 2020.

Goverments not just in Brazil, but also Mexico have not played an active role. Contrast this with India where the Indian prime minister said around March 21 that in stark terms India could be set back 21 years in the next 21 days or do the lockdown completely and be able to withstand it. And Merkel in Germany when she said back by the end of March that the virus could take the lives of millions of people in Germany if the country did not lockdown effectively.