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Emmanuel Macron graduated from Sciences Po University in 2004 with a degree in public affairs. He joins the Finance Ministry as an inspector and then buys himself out of government service contract by 2008 to join a private bank. He arranges an acquisition from Nestle and other business deals during this period. In 2012 he is appointed as deputy secretary general for the president's office after Francois Hollande a socialist is elected to the presidency. In 2014 he is offered the position of Minister of Industry and Digital Affairs in the second Manuel Valls government. He makes some changes to French government but opposes the wealth tax or tax on business, and is generally pro-business, though he acts as a member of the Socialist party.  He uses this period to build momentum for his own run for the presidency as support for Hollande falters having lost support from his working class base with Macron and Valls inspired changes.  Macron finally announces he will run for the presidency forming his own En Marche movement which he finances with his own fund raising. Throughout this period right up to the election in 2017 Macron has not run for public office. When he wins the presidency in that year he lacks the experience needed as the youngest president in French history at the age of 39. Like another young president Obama he handles his public image with the media for his En Marche movement promising to unblock France. This public image and his lack of experience makes him impervious to the social changes going on in France that lead to the yellow vest protests in 2018. This is a period when there are changes in the midwest as workers in Michigan and other midwestern states turn away from Hillary Clinton and Obama.  French workers are in the position of workers in the US with the decline of manufacturing, much of it shifted with the supply chain to China and Japan, and the gap opening between rural and urban tech educated areas. Macron follows Obama's quick rise from Senator to run for president yet lacks experience, and lacks sufficient grasp of the social changes with loss of manufacturing, the wide gaps between rural and urban tech educated people, conditions in the rural and farming areas. Macron survives this period, is reelected in 2022 with the help of socialist Melenchon voters. He says he will govern differently, less distant from average Frenchmen, but his instincts are to push for pension reform. At a time of cost of living crisis, and when the French budget office says the change in pension from 62 to 64 was not critical at the present time when inflation was hitting the public after the pandemic. Macron does this by Article 49 in the way he has done under the Manuel Valls government, by executive action alone. This time he faces a no confidence motion in parliament in March 2023 following some of the largest protests France has seen in years, with two thirds of the French according to FR24 opposing the change in pension law. Women see this as coming at a time when age discrimination hurts their chances of earning a living after 50 years of age.  Age discrimination is widespread in France, in a way it is not in Germany, say reports in the NYT. And with the cost of living crisis acts as a major hurdle for the average French person, if pensions are delayed without addressing these cultural issues in France. The result is that the protests have substance and Macron is seen as not sensitive to this at a time when he lacks a majority in parliament. ...

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British prime minister Theresa May, says Britain opposes the unilateral declaration of independence by the Catalan parliament. The Foreign Secretary and the shadow Foreign Secretary also expressed the need for Spanish constitutional integrity and sovereignty. The European Union has not supported the Catalan move.

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Prime minister Modi's visit to the US comes at a time when US president Biden is eager to show the US is fully engaged in the Indo-Pacific region with its allies in the Quad 4 countries- Australia, Japan and India. The recently announced Aukus defense agreement brought together 2 members of the Quad 4 the US and Australia, plus the UK. Aukus is designed to strengthen US presence as a naval power in the Indo-Pacific region in the Indian and Pacific oceans around India, Southeast Asia, China, and across the Pacific. After a futile engagement in Afghanistan the US is reorganizing its presence where it is strongest- in the oceans. In a way that Britain once did in the eighteenth and nineteenth century, the US is dominant in the high seas. US naval power far exceeds that of all navies in the world combined. This is meant to reassure India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia and Japan, which together have close to twice the population of China, that the US has not diminished its presence in any way from that it had in the 1950's following the Second World War. With this new framework India enters discussions that will focus on health to deal with the pandemic and its after effects, with security and rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region, with trade, technology, new supply chain manufacturing structure in which India plays a key role. With this new focus and clearing past engagements made by other US  presidents, including some mistaken policies, the US emerges as a new force in the Indian ocean, China seas and Pacific ocean region.  On September 23 Modi meets Tim Cook for what could be new supply chain arrangements that Apple could be preparing as it and other US corporations build new supply chain structures to rebuild US manufacturing technologies capabilities that were lost to China over the period 2000-2020. During that period manufacturing technology knowhow was shifted out of the US in a mistaken policy that assumed design and invention were sufficient for the US to keep. The first step in this direction was a change of CEO's at Intel Corp with US president Biden pushing for new US technology reclaiming policy. Following that the new CEO at Intel Corp, Patrick Gelsinger, completely reassessed Intel's mistaken policies of ceding its entire semiconductor manufacturing technologies capabilities to Taiwan and China. Intel made a U turn and is now investing all or most of $50 billion in the US instead of in China or Taiwan.  On September 24 Modi meets Mr Biden to discuss trade, investment, defense, and security. On the same day the leaders of Japan, Australia, Mr. Suga and Mr. Morrison join Modi and Biden for the Quad 4 talks. Indian infrastructure capabilities and Indian economic growth would be key goals to strengthen India along its land borders along Tibet occupied region and Himalayas as part of the overall effort to build a new US and allied presence in Asia.  On September 21 Modi attends a Covid Summit that will look at the way forward in the aftermath of the pandemic and ways to vaccinate the remaining unvaccinated population in the world, as well as vaccination passports.  ...

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The firing of John Bolton as National Security Adviser opens up the possibility of a meeting of Trump with President Rouhani of Iran. There is a need for both sides to begin talks on a nuclear deal that would replace the one Iran signed with president Obama to address issues raised by Mr. Trump and Republicans. Iran and countries that buy oil from Iran such as India, China and Japan have an interest in relief from sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on imports of Iranian oil. The European Union is keen to preserve aspects of the nuclear deal. Relief from sanctions is critical for Iran to develop its economy. The last two decades have seen Iran struggle to develop its economy with the sanctions imposed by  different U.S. administrations.   President Trump expressed flexibility on sanctions saying "we will see what happens. I think Iran has potential. They are incredible people." President Rouhani urged Mr. Trump "to put warmongers aside." Mr. Trump told reporters that he had resisted Mr. Bolton's opinions on issues and realized he had moderate views when compared to someone like Bolton.  Trump told Iran "We are not looking for regime change. We hope we can make a deal and if we can't make a deal thats fine too. But I think they have to make a deal." Helping the U.S. and Iran come to talks is president Macron of France who hopes to setup a meeting at the UN General Assembly which meets next week following his efforts at the G-7 meeting in France last month. In the past when tensions were high in the Straits of Hormuz President Trump refrained from aggravating this by saying actions that are "disproportionate" should not be taken and respected Iranian intentions. The tone of the conversation between the two sides has moderated to the point where both sides realize the need for coming to some compromise. This is in sharp contrast to the period a few months ago with rising tensions in the Straits of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian ship. Bolton's opinions were not the only issue for president Trump. He was also seen as the source of leaks including one that said Mike Pence, the Vice President, had opposed Mr. Trump's plan to bring the Taliban to Camp David. Also contributing to the new climate for talks is Mike Pompeo the Secretary of State, who has promoted the idea of talks with Iran. He told the media about such a meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York- "Sure. The president has made it very clear that he is prepared to meet with no pre-conditions." The willingness to try new ideas even contrary ones to policy pursued only a short while ago as long as the desired goal is reached is a feature of this presidency and key advisers. From the beginning of the Trump administration there is a firm sense of the need to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. and reduce foreign entanglements that have dragged on wasting resources and destroying priorities. With a willingness to try all sorts of approaches even ones that appear to be contradictory always keeping the end goal in sight. ...

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The close alliance between the CDU and the CSU in Bavaria appears to be unraveling. The immigrants at German borders have dwindled down a trickle, about 11,000 immigrants today compared to the wave of immigrants entering Germany in 2015. The CSU's prime minister in Bavaria Mr. Soder and the Federal Interior minister from the CSU Mr. Seehofer, blame the conflict between the two parties on the 2015 decision by Merkel on immigration. The German ARD broadcaster shows 62% of Germans favor stronger action on immigration. The pressure on the CSU comes from the gains by the anti-immigration party AfD in recent national elections. The CSU hopes that by shifting its own position on immigration to a standoff with the CDU and Merkel's position it can hold off the Afd in the elections in Bavaria in October 2018. The pressure on Merkel comes from members in the CDU and from the SPD leadership, which have accomodated some of the criticism of open immigration to reduce the immigrants at German borders, yet now see the need to meet any challenges to Merkel's authority. This is why the head of the SPD, Ms. Nahles called Mr. Soder's push for a confrontation on the immigration issue as acting "like a bonzai Trump." The CDU party leaders in Bavaria call for a "axis of the willing" joining leaders of the governments in Austria and Hungary. and the newly elected government in Italy to impose immediate controls on immigration at the borders. Merkel says she is open to different points of view within the CDU-CSU alliance, but action should be based on keeping the European Union together, and be taken after EU meetings in Brussels. Will this result in a fall of the government? Angela Merkel has adapted to the changing situation on immigration leading to the small trickle in new immigrants at German borders today. Even if the AfD anti immigration party joins the CSU the percentage of the vote for the AfD is mainly in the eastern part of Germany, and CSU in Bavaria, with 12.6% voting AfD in 2017 elections, and about 7% voting CSU mainly in Bavaria. This compares with the Left at 8.9%, Greens at 9.2%, and SPD at 20.5% for a combined 38.6% of the vote that favor Merkel's new coalition policies. This combined with the 25% of the vote gained by Merkel's CSU party gives it about 64% of the vote and about 489 seats in the 709 seat German parliament. A test of Merkel's authority is not likely to be sustained. By making this a pro-European position Merkel has shifted the issue from one of immigration which is now minimal and one on which Merkel has adapted her policies to a stand on Germany as leader with France of the European Union. At this particularly sensitive time when Germany and France are negotiating with the U.S. on trade and Britain on Brexit, German public opinion is likely to consider the impact of new elections and more uncertainty as not good for Germany. With the SPD, Left, Greens and CSU having 64% of the vote, and the anti immigrant parties CSU, AFD about 20% concentrated in the less economically developed eastern part and in Bavaria, the chances that Merkel's position would be weakened or her authority challenged is very unlikely.   ...

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Having an adequate supply of N95 masks is critical for each hospital tackling the coronavirus pandemic. The lack of enough masks leaves health care personnel without the basic protection and is a grave emergency. Hospitals are resorting to reuse of the masks in this crisis and this is not a good practice as it increases the chances of infection. President Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act on April 2 against 3M. This gives the federal government more control over 3M's operations to ensure that it goes all out to make the healthcare N95 masks that the hospitals need in this grave emergency. This report in the WSJ covers the situation as of April 3 on the supply of M95 masks for health workers and others. N95 masks block 95% of very small particles. Supply in the U.S. is for 50 million N95 masks. Demand in the U.S. is for 300 million N95 masks as estimated by the Department of Health and Human Services. in March- this is how many are needed by health care workers to fight this pandemic in the U.S. The principal manufacturer is 3M. 3M company has doubled its production since January 2020. The trend before this pandemic was to send production over to China and other countries. This is changing now with the pandemic and the U.S. policy shifting to be self sufficient in medical supplies in the event of an emergency. A policy Peter Navarro, who heads the agency in charge of getting medical supplies, says President Trump is insisting be implemented. Hospital buyers supported the earlier trend to keep costs down, but this appears to be a costly mistake, putting health care workers in hospitals across the U.S. without the basic protection they need. Minnesota based 3M invented the first modern disposable masks in the 1960's. Interestingly 3M continued to make millions of masks in the U.S. even though competitors moved manufacturing overseas. The 50 million disposable masks 3M made globally went to workers in industries where it provided extra safety from metal shavings or other substances, and medical workers. Now 90% of masks go to medical workers. 3M ramped up production globally since January 11 when the pandemic first hit to 100 million masks a month globally, and 35 million a month in the U.S. at plants in South Dakota and Nebraska. 3M says that it will import 10 million masks from its factory in China, which earlier this year was restricted from shipping it outside China as China needed masks for the pandemic. About 10 million more masks are made by two other manufacturers Alpha Pro and Louis Gerson Co.  U.S. Department of Health and Human Services ordered 600 million N95 masks from 5 companies to distribute to hospitals and build up the national medical supply stockpile. 190 million each of this is from 3M and Honeywell and 130 million Owens & Minor Inc.  3M says it will make 50 million a month in the U.S. by June. Honeywell which had moved production overseas, plans to bring back production to the U.S. by making 10 million masks by May at its Rhode Island and Phoenix plants. There is a company in Singapore that makes one million masks a day in China and other Asian countries, Pasture Pharma Pte, but most of it is committed to government agencies in China.   ...

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Two readers opinions cast doubts about Vickie Tillman's defense of S&P on the editorial page August 31, 2007. That article by an S&P employee looked like a PR effort.

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The Republican House health care bill AHCA  keeps some some of the more popular parts of the Affordable Care Act such as not taking pre-existing conditions to deny insurance, keeping children covered on parents insurance till age 26, and increase contributions to Health Savings accounts. It is different in that the expansion of Medicaid at 138% of poverty rate threshold is rolled back. Age is used for tax credits instead of income, hitting those approaching Medicare age harder. The maximum charged to older people is now set at  5 times compared to 3 times what young have to pay. In general the Republican bill is seen as targeting the elderly to keep premiums down. The elderly on low incomes are hit hardest. Fox News O'Reilly Show showed the host questioning House Republicans, citing the CBO estimates that elderly on low incomes may have to pay as much as $14,000 a year for insurance making it basically unaffordable, and 52 million Americans would be affected adversely. Large companies are no longer required to offer mandatory health insurance under the new bill. Conservatives from Freedom Caucus wanted to see the essential areas of benefits covered by the law limited to fewer than the ten areas in the Affordable Care Act. The ACHA Republican bill leaves to states to determine what are required essential benefits. At one point maternity benefits were to be dropped but this was changed to let states decide. As a result the bill is 33 votes short of the number needed for passing the house in March 2017.   Neither the Democrats Affordable Care Act or the Republican House bill of Speaker Ryan do much to tackle the real problem- the absolute amount and increases for health care dollars for treating each disease in the U.S. compared to European and other countries. As a result health care has become more of a partisan struggle between the two parties than a real effort by all to overcome the problems that have to be tackled. Republicans want to see premiums drop and keep the burden on the deficit down- but with the level of U.S. health care costs disproportionately high compared to Europe and the rest of the world the arithmetic is tough and ends up leaving out vulnerable groups such as the elderly on low incomes, thus making the whole proposition prone to fail. For the same reason the Democrats failed to keep premiums down with a wider safety net leading to calls for repeal of their version.   ...

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Foreign demand for US manufacturing exports especially in emerging market economies such as China, India, Mexico, the Middle East and South America, will help cushion the US economy from the effects of the housing market deterioration and the credit squeeze. Some of the figures point to a vigorous demand for US exports that will sustain the US economy in the years ahead as poorer countries around the world industrialize, urbanize, build infrastructure, and improve the living standards of people in their countries. First the world is less sensitive to US slowdown. Cooper cites numbers to show that the US contributionto world growth has declined from 19% to 12%. And in the past 10 years USA growth declined from 3% to 2.6% annually but the global economy accelerated from 3.2% to 4.4%. (Statistics from IMF?) IMF in World Economic Outlook estimates global economic growth in 2008 to slow from 5.2% to 4.8%, and the US in 2008 to be 1.9% same as 2007. Excluding the US, growth in the world economy would be 5.5%. China's imports of US goods is up 25% annually over the past 5 years. The proportion of US goods going to emerging markets is up to 45% from 38% in the past 2 years. And economies of countries like India and Mexico are sustained by internal consumer demand so they are stronger than before. Another way to see this happening is the US corporate earnings from overseas being up 22% from last year, and domestic profits up only 1%. Over the past year profits from foreign sales have accounted for 80% of increase in overall profits. So foreign trade and its continued expansion will act as a stabilizing effect on the US economy and US products especially in infrastructure development and related areas will help the developing countries make major improvements to living standards and infrastructure. ...

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See the World Economic Outlook November 2007 which talks about this phenomenon in Chapter 5 on the moderating influences in the global economic cycle, the drop in volatility in the global economy, and the expansion of the economy being across most countries in the global economy. Is this a period or a phase the global economy is going through as most emerging economies and developing countries are improving living standards and developing infrastructure, or will it last for several decades with broad sustained economic growth and foreign trade. Some smaller crises are to be expected for example the stock bubbles in China and India(?) will pop if this bubble phenomena continues in these countries. The pressures for expression of public opinion and environmental degradation in China are further challenges and at some point China's development might slow to a more sustainable longer term rate. Will India then pick up as it urbanizes and develops its manufacturing industry?

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China passes the U.S. in OPEC oil imports, with daily average imports of 3.7 million barrels compared to 3.5 million barrels for the U.S., according to Wood Mackenzie.

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After years of negotiations Russia and China reached agreement on a memorandum that provides deliveries by Gazprom of 38 billion cubic metres of natural gas to China by 2018, under a 30 year supply deal. The pipeline to deliver gas to China is part of a $50 billion project for a pipeline that takes gas to Vladivostock for liquefaction. A spur from that pipeline would take gas to China. This would make China the largest importer of natural gas from Russia. In 2012 Germany imported 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas from Russia, followed by other large importers Ukraine, Turkey, Belarus and Italy. A new agreement between China and Russia's state owned oil company, Rosneft, doubles the oil imports to 31 million metric tons a year under a 25 year deal. The current level of imports is 15 million tons set by a deal in 2009. The lower price of natural gas going to Europe helped the two countries bridge differences over price. China's National Petroleum Corporation will partner with Rosneft for exploration in new oil fields in the Russian Arctic region....

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On the production side output has fallen to an estimated 1.6 million barrels a day(U.S. government and independent analyst estimate) from nearly 3 million barrels a day in 1998. But even this is an estimate, PDVSA says its daily output is about 2.2 million barrels a day, and plans to boost it 4 million barrels a day by 2012. PDVSA points out that the oil exports to the US have remained steady at 1.5 million barrels a day. The content links to oil policy are 1. PDVSA direct involvement in economic development and social goals. 10% of annual investment budget to go to socail programs or about $1 billion a year. For private oil companies in joint ventures with government 3.3% of the local investment budget is required to go to social programs. Oil service companies include community projects such as low income housing in their bids. And spend 5% of the value of the contract in hiring worker owned service companies. Adding road construction and subsidized food programs the spending approaches $8billion for 2005 according to PDVSA. quote: "its not easy... but there will be no more projects with their backs turned to our reality." Rafael Ramirez President of PDVSA told industry executives in June. 2. According to the WSJ PDVSA's diminished production has cut world output by more than 1 %. PDVSA's 2004 financial results show exploration investment was only a meager $60 million in 2004 down from a small $174 million in 2001. Current wells are so old that that the ir output declines by about 23% a year, drilling new wells only keeps production levels stable. This decline can be seen also in the backdrop of the major strike in late 2002 and early 2003. At the time Chavez fired 19000 employees of PDVSA who opposed his policies. The employment levels are only now back to pre-strike levels. ...

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Experts say there may not be much difference whether a voluntary deal is reached between Greece and the Institute of International Finance or a deal is forced on private bondholders by Greece for the 93% of Greek bonds that are based on Greek laws. Most of the large banks that hold Greek bonds will be subject to persuasion by European authorites (EU, ECB) to accept the deal offered by Greece that brings debt down to 120% of GDP by 2020. The remaining holdouts are the hedge funds that will want to opt out of a voluntary arrangement anyway, because a forced deal by Greece would allow them to collect payments on their credit default swaps. Adam Lerrick, an expert on sovereign debt restructurings, says the hedge funds and other private bondholders are framing the discussion into one of a voluntary agreement that is orderly and an involuntary agreement that is disorderly, as a tactic to scare the European authorites (the EU, ECB) and Greece. He says not only can forced restructurings be orderly, but in this case the improved prospects for Greece with serious debt reduction would lead to a ratings upgrade for Greece. Some hedge funds have said they will sue if forced into the deal. Michael Waibel, at the Lauerpacht Centre for International Law at Cambridge University, says the case would first go to Greek courts where it would be received without much sympathy, and then to the European Court of Human Rights. Only the small number of bonds under Swiss and English law with pari passu clauses insisting on equal treatment of bondholders have any prospects, and even then legal enforcement of any awards is uncertain as shown in the case of Argentina. The 93% of bonds under Greek law have no such clauses and this gives Greece the option for special treatment of bonds held by the ECB....

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Simon Nixon points to two large capital gaps Spain's government faces for Bankia. Spain was not prepared for the events of the last month as it took control of Bankia. The agreement to convert 4.5 billion of preference shares into equity gives it 100% of Bankia parent, Banco Financiero y de Ahorros, and 45% of Bankia. The capital gaps Spain faces for Bankia comes from expected loan losses which it has been slow to deal with. BFA-Bankia's real estate loan losses are estimated at 52 billion euros. Capital provisions for this are only 11%. J.P. Morgan estimates another 4.9 billion euros will be needed under new government rules. But these rules do not reflect all the losses if real estate loans are written off and and other loans are correctly shown as nonperforming, and other corporate loan provisions are increased. When this is done total losses would in reality be about 12% of the 190 billion euro loans at BFA-Bankia or 22.8 billion euros, according to experts. To correctly deal with this would require $15 billion euros, in addition to the 4.9 billion euros, for a total of 19.9 billion euros. The other capital gap comes from BFA's capital carried on books at 12 billion euros, the pre-IPO value. This has been shrinking rapidly to 5.5 billion euros at 2011 end, and is now down to 2.8 billion euros. This could mean another capital gap of 5 billion euros, depending on to whether shareholders are wiped out. Bankia has 350,000 private shareholders and it will be important to maintain depositor confidence. The total is close to 25 billion euros in capital gap for BFA-Bankia that the Spanish government must face up to quickly. It does not stop there because there are other cajas savings banks and other banks that will have to be taken into account- too large a loss would mean losing market confidence and poorer access to financial markets. ...

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The accompanying article from Pro Publica about Lighthizer's term at USTR shows the lack of results as China shifted production to Mexico and Vietnam - it shows it was going to be a long struggle, carried over into another 4 DJT years this time in 2025. That article showed tariffs are really not so much a weapon against other countries  as they are a way to signal to America's corporations to invest in supply chains in the US.  In Congressional hearings towards the end of his term at USTR in 2020 Lighthizer said -

“They have a system, and their system is challenging our system.”  Lighthizer told Senators that the U.S. struggle with China is “going to go on for years.”

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Chancellor Merkel calls on China to respect Hong Kong citizen's right to free speech during premier Li Keqiang's visit to Berlin in Oct. 2014.

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As the related article in The Washington Post points out the narrative inside India relates more to the the sense that terrorism has been a persistent problem for India and the public's sense that action was needed. Most of the issues in South Asia relate to development, roads, dams, bridges, airports and housing that need to be built, healthcare, sanitation and education on a massive scale. This is an area where India can show the way forward for South Asia, and be the real test for Mr. Modi after the many projects that he has initiated in India in the first term. It is only ordinary Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Sri Lankans, and other people in South Asia that are paying the price for neglect of development and infrastructure as China, South Korea and other nations have forged ahead. A focus on development is the right sphere for competition both for Mr. Modi and for people in the region.

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Calderon's close race with Obrador in Mexico which was won by Calderon and the National Action Party (PAN).

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How the southern states Puebla, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero are more like northern Guatemala and Monterey in the north resembles southern Texas creating two different looking countries within one country. The south is heavily indigenous with native peoples and votes for Lopez obrador who won 40% of the vote there compared to 27% for Calderon. Its the reverse in the north where Calderon won 43% of the vote and only 24% went to Obrador. So with this kind of a divide it makes it very difficult to make any progress on policy formulationa and execution and on reaching some agreement in the common interest. The practice of divisive politics is common throughout the Mexican political system so that much needed infrastructure and other development and investment remains unrealized.

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The period when Lopez Obrador was Mayor of Mexico City shows his pragmatic bent to gradually work for his goals. He increased social spending and setup an old age pension, yet governed with fiscal conservatism. The new president of Mexico is likely to do this as president, working pragmatically to achieve goals for social programs to improve living standards of workers in Mexico.