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Pete Pyhrr is interviewed by the WSJ's David Kesmodel 40 years after his zero based budgeting method became popular in the Carter administration. Pyhrr developed the method as a controller at Texas Instruments in the 1970's, and says it is a great tool in difficult economic times or periods of rapid technological change to make cost reductions. WIth zero based budgeting budget figures are not simply adjusted upwards or downwards from last years numbers, but the budget is developed from scratch to reflect purposes served in the current environment. It brings costs and benefits of each expenditure into focus, so that more profitable projects can be financed over less profitable projects. Pyhrr published "Zero-Based Budgeting: A Practical Management Tool for Evaluating Expenses," in 1977. It was used by President Carter in managing the budget process in the state of Georgia and in the Carter administration, but fell out of favor in the Reagan administration. Pyhrr says he sees the need for using the method in today's budget cost reductions for government agencies to help taxpayers. As with TQC under Deming, which came back to the U.S. following Japan's use of quality control methods developed decades earlier in the U.S., zero based budgeting is coming back to the U.S. through its use by private equity firm 3G Capital Partners of Brazil in its Heinz operation....

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The Third Biennial Update Report at COP26 Glasgow shows where India stands on renewable energy, solar, forest cover enhancement, and improving carbon intensity in its climate change efforts so far.  For instance a 17 times increase in solar in the last 7 years to 45 gigawatts, with target of 450 gigawatts by 2030. In carbon intensity 24% improvement between 2005-2014. Scientist Bhatt presented the report for India's Environment Ministry saying India represented 17% of the world's population and historically 4% of world carbon emissions, today 5%. Improvements of carbon intensity per unit of GDP planned under Mod's plan for 2030 require 45% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030. This suggests the trajectory of China will be avoided where highly polluting parts of industries such as steel and cement were left unregulated and lacking strict supervision leading to rampant pollution in 2000-2021. Mr. Birol, head of the Renewables Energy Agency said on BBC's "Hard Talk" program recently that if you combine all of China's steel and cement factory carbon emissions, that alone would equal the total sum of carbon emissions of the whole European Union today. A quick look at a graph of global carbon emissions trajectories shows three fold increase of China's carbon emissions from about 4 billion tons to 12 billion tons between 2000-2021, the period and the explosion of carbon that is the one activity that singlehandedly created the crisis of climate change today. By comparison US remains at about 6 billion tons of emissions, and EU, US, Britain Japan show flat trajectories. Business, globalization interests, US and European financial interests, and local governments in China that financed this explosion in steel and cement ignored the implications of so much pollution in so short a time through unregulated activities- writing a chapter of failure with most of the world's people left to bear the results of such a failure.  It is this that India plans to correct with a 45% improvement in carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 2030, and nothing could be more important in the government's plan than this. New technologies will be key for this. Modi and India realize how vulnerable India is to floods, drought stricken areas, shortages of water, and climate extremes, and see these plans as critical for healthy growth that benefits all of India's people and regions, It is a long term vision like no other today and sets a new direction for all developing regions of Asia, Latin America and Africa. As India leads the way in new technologies and ambitious programs such as one solar, one world, one grid, these technologies will also break open new paths for the regions of the world that need this most from Brazil to Indonesia.  China too suffers from the impact of so much pollution. Even as early as 2010 reports showed the higher pollution had lowered life expectancy in northern region of China compared to its southern region. Yet the most polluting factories were not removed and only recently is the activity being conducted seriously leading to the shortages of fuel from so much overexpansion in the boom years, and making adjustments done abruptly today more difficult.   ...

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The CEO of the New York Times and the former director general of the BBC, takes a look at the public discourse in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and in the Brexit campaign, and finds some troubling changes. The use of words that can eaily be picked up by Twitter and social media to attack opponents, the complete disregard for facts, and outright attempts to denigrate and destroy using rhetorical tactics, and a section of the public that has turned away from the facts or is disinterested in facts, is deeply troubling for Mark Thompson. When the public discourse fails, then the politics as a whole starts to collapse, says Thompson. We are children of the enlightenment, says Thompson, and were taught to look underneath statements to discern the truth. This is a crisis in public discourse. Worse it is one in which truth telling by people who say they are outsiders and tell it like it is, is not about telling the truth. Which is what makes it so dangerous. Thompson cites the statement by Michael Gove that "people in this country have had enough of experts," as another dangerous sign. He says it is time that experts make themselves understandable and talk in a way the public can understand. The media needs to explain issues in clear ways, and professional policymakers language of discourse needs to be conveyed in better ways that the public can grasp, in which the Brexit Remain campaign failed, says Thompson. Its important to acknowledge the problem, as the health of our democracies depends on finding solutions to what has happened in 2015-2016 to change the public discourse and let it deteriorate to unimaginable levels.  ...

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This opinion in DW.com says modernization of Saudi Arabia will take many years and a different mindset from the ultraconservative nature of the country, and cannot be accomplished by a few megaprojects that are announced by Prince bin Salman. He says the 32 year old leader lacks experience. The cost of the new project of $500 billion he has announced to be built in the northwest of the country is extremely high with no clear source of investment funding. Efforts for a more moderate Islam are also seen with much skepticism as Wahhabism has dominated the region for many years with little change. Change from the ground up is needed more than top down says DW.com. This is particularly true for gains to be made in women's rights and other social issues.

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The Wall Street Journal interviews Amr Moussa, leading candidate for the presidential elections in Egypt. He sees a change in policy towards Israel, and a parliament that has many Islamic legislators.

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The Italian government sold 5 billion euros of three year bonds in Jan 2013 at an interest rate of 1.85%, the lowest since 2010. This is a remarkable change from 2012.

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In this interview with Der Spiegel Bernie Sanders reflects on the 2016 election. He says that the Democratic Party missed the fact that many people in the midwest, south and other parts of the country, were worse off after president Obama left than when he came in in 2008. He also says Hillary Clinton relied too heavily on speechwriters and advisers upto the point of  having three speechwriters say why she was running for president. He finds the cuts proposed to healthcare, in the budget, and action on climate change, immoral. He also points out about the investigations that Mr. Mueller is someone everybody respects and that it would be wrong to offer a biased opinion, that Trump supporters would see this in the way that he is picked on when he just came in. He also believes Trump supporters are like other voters and are likely to look at the results, how better off they are under the Trump administration.

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The $369 billion climate and tax package that is coming out of a deal arranged by Schumer in the US Senate could be a path breaking action. It would enable president Biden to get close to the climate goals he promised last year of cutting US carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 over 2005 levels to combat effects of climate change. The $369 billion package would get the US to reduce carbon emissions by 40% in 2030 over 2005 levels.  Severe effects of climate change with fires and floods in the US, Europe, and Asia have brought a new spotlight to the issues facing the world and the fact that something needs to be done quickly with the US leading the way. Senator Manchin a holdout because he comes from a coal mining state was a holdout. He was persuaded to join as the new legislation provides for support for transmission lines and other investment during a transition period so that it does not affect the economy in his state. The transition period is now accepted as Europe now looks at gas and coal as a temporary resource following the cutoff of Russian supplies and the US will be shipping more LNG to Europe during this period. The vote for this legislation is planned under reconciliation so that the vice president MS. Harris can cast the deciding vote for Democrats in a 50-50 split Senate. Republicans oppose the legislation. Manchin now says it will reduce inflation. Briefly it will give $7500 to every buyer of an electric vehicle EV, and $4000 for a used EV. It would give rebates for heat pumps that increase home energy efficiency. Billions of dollars would be spent for clean energy industries, and for solar, wind, geothermal, other renewable energy projects. Democrats want to get the legislation through the Senate quickly by next week, and so secret were Schumer's negotiations that most Democrats did not know about it. Coming on the heels of the $280 billion CHIPS and Science bill for $280 billion investment in US semiconductor industry, this will be a big win for president Biden and shows the persistence and patience of Mr. Biden is paying off.   ...

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German chancellor Merkel is interviewed by DW.com's Max Hofmann as her 16 year period as Germany's leader comes to a close. She discusses immigration to Germany, climate change and other issues. Not discussed are the issues of neglect of infrastructure and failure in preserving upward mobility in Germany society during that period. She is described as a "compromise machine," which she refutes by saying "I'm not a machine, of course, but... a human being." Through compromise she was able to extend the Christian Democrats hold on power for this long. Yet for much of the time she kept the Social Democrats, who were lacking in conviction at the time for real upward mobility, out of power; by compromises that meant she would do just so much not enough on social values. In the end her party the CDU fell to a low of about 22% support of Germans in the 2021 election. The Greens with more conviction and the Social Democrats surpassed the CDU under Baerbock and vice chancellor Scholz. Her achievements came reluctantly in the end in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. This time she put all her convictions and support behind the German and European Union financial package for trillions of euros of support that would enable Europe to get back on its feet after the pandemic's devastation. This may be her singular achievement, long after everything else is forgotten. Yet not one word of this interview talks about this achievement made with the full conviction of both Scholz and Merkel. Scholz and Baerbock will lead a new Social Democrat+ Greens coalition that will finally rebuild Germany along new lines on pillars of social mobility, infrastructure building, and climate change action for the New Germany. Baerbock is just 40 years, and Germany now moves to be run by a new generation so unlike the last in conviction and vision, and more in line with the vision and aspirations after World War II. With both Willy Brandt's vision of the Social Democrats, and the vision of Konrad Adenauer of the Christian Democrats, now carried forward with the help of the Greens Baerbock and the young generation of Germans. ...

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This is an highly important interview by the BBC with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. We have followed the path breaking work of Mr. Lighthizer at Lyrarc.com over 10 years, and have great respect for his effort on behalf of the American people and American workers. Here are some of the remarks he made at the end of the term of the Trump administration. Lighthizer says the objective of trade is not just efficiency, it must be working men and women. This is the shift that Mr. Trump has made. It will be a lasting change as leaders in both parties see this as important, says Lighthizer. There are companies that immediately want to go back to the way things were but Lighthizer says members of both parties will prevent this. This will be a lasting change. Democrats in particular could soon face strident criticism that they have let down the working class from within their party, increasing the risks of the party to represent large parts of the American population. Lighthizer says its not accurate that we started a lot of trade wars, we have simply enforced our laws and insisted on fairness for American workers. There was really no trade war in the improved NAFTA deal in the interests of American workers, which also enhanced worker protections in Mexico, for a win-win on both sides of two neighbors. "We want strong communities in the U.S. and if that means T-shirts will cost another nickel, they will cost another nickel," sums up the way Lighthizer sees it, and the way all of America would see it if one regained the idea of government for the people, of the people and with the people. "We are proud of what we have done to reorient American trade towards working people in the U.S. and less towards outsourcing and corporations," says Lighthizer. And he says that was important to do. Lighthizer only highly underestimates what he has done for America and American workers.  A lot remains to be done. The about $800 billion in overall trade deficit the U.S. has with China, Germany and the rest of the world is not sustainable, he says. The job only gets harder now that the direction is clear.    ...

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Wilkins was British inventor, scientist and educator with profound unbelievable impact. Some thoughts on what it means for America to reject Science in 2024 for Climate Change in the face of sudden floods, wildfires- for Western civilization was based on Science since 1648, Eastern civilizations missing it completely. When George Washington was fighting in the Pennsylvania country against American Indians and the French, on the other side of the Atlantic a Britisher from Somerset was part of the British East India Company that had won control of Bengal in northeastern India. In 1760 Wilkins arrived in Calcutta a youth of 21 as clerk for the British East India Company, rising to examiner for new employees at the company. It is Wilkins as a printer who creates the first typography for both Persian and Bengali, and who translates for the first time the Bhagavad Gita into English from Sanskrit in 1785.  This is of interest mainly because the American colonists were fighting an Empire whose chief base of the Empire was in Bengal and which generated the funding of the British war against the American colonists led by Washington, Adams and Jefferson. This was before Bengal also funded the British fight against Napoleon in Spain and Portugal. And by the 1850's funded Britain's wars in Chinese ports including Hong Kong. Wilkins is key to this puzzle about India and China- why they succumbed to European colonialism? Gandhi says the Indians invited them in as they were mainly shopkeepers and commercial interests. It is also true that after the end of the 30 years war in 1648, the British, French and Dutch followed Science creating the scientific revolution and the industrial revolution, that India and China missed.  Imagine then what it means to reject Science in the West in 2024 on Climate Change? Gandhi wrote Hind Swaraj in November 1909 on the boat Kildonan Castle from London to South Africa. In it he says Indians have to look in the mirror and accept that it is they the princes of India who invited the British sepoys of the British East India Company into Indian states for their wars and losing Bengal, then the rest of India. ...

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 Franco German differences are growing as Macron of France and Merkel have serious differences on NATO, Russia, EU expansion with Balkan countries, and a eurozone budget. Macron has called NATO brain dead. Merkel disagrees. The personal relations between the two leaders never close have worsened. 

On climate change Macron's push to cut in half greenhouse gas emissions in Europe was supported by Merkel but only after much wrangling within Merkel's own coalition government. German conservatives in the CDU fear it disproportionately hurts a heavily industrialized country like Germany. And most Germans are wary of the Macron idea of more EU integration after the experience with Greece and Italy, suspecting that Germans will have to pay the bill. EU officials say personal relations between Macron and Merkel now border on animosity.

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Even with Brexit out of the way the Labour party has to worry that over 60% of people over the age of 65 years voted Conservative. The high percentage of older voters voting Conservative in ever larger numbers cannot make up for the young vote that Labour attracts with stands on climate change and other issues such as wages.

Older voters even in towns in the north of England, including pensioners are much better off and not that much different than traditional Conservative voters in their cultural attitudes. This will remain an obstacle for the Labour party in Britain after losses in three elections. After the NHS funding and infrastructure spending issues were neutralized by the Conservatives under Johnson, issues around cultural attitudes and patriotic sentiment play a big part particularly for older voters.

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Scott Shane of the NYT provides this exceptional account of how the ideology of Wahhabism on which the Saudi monarchy is based has influenced the evolution of Islam, but not in the way other religions have evolved into more moderate and open religions. Christianity evolved from the period of religious conflict, and evolved to the point that the basis of progress was based on education and technology in most of northern and southern Europe. Where the evolution did not take place because of more intolerant behaviours such as in Spain with the Spanish Inquisition and ideas from the medieval period, this development based on education and technology lagged severely behind.  Wahhabism developed as a result of a sect started by a religious cleric Wahhab in a poor desert region around Mecca and Medina, now the Saudi Kingdom, who sought the help of a tribal chief Ibn Saud. They used the religious-political alliance to gain tribal dominance in the region. Wahhabism sought to change Islam by banning worship and religious rites at tombs common in that period. It also as Brookings scholar William McCants cited here says, drew "sharp lines" and intolerance between believers and non-believers- all non-believers including other sects of Islam, Shiites, Christians. The movement spread throughout the region, but was crushed by the Ottoman Empire based in Istanbul, Turkey, by the 1850's, only to be revived in the 1920's following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. A Norwegian expert Heggenhammer cited here says clearly Islam did not benefit from the evolution that other religions had, and Wahhabism has slowed this evolution into and open, tolerant religion because of its "sharp lines" and intolerance of other faiths and ideas with the Wahhabism from a medieval perod. In India the British rule brought enlightenment thinkers (John Stuart Mill for example was a clerk for the British East India company). But no such change happened under Ottoman rule to inspire leaders like Gandhi and Nehru to setup a new constitution that made changes from medieval Hindu beliefs such as caste and religious practices based on superstition.  The development of an oil rich state in Saudi Arabia with the discovery of oil, and the dependence from 1950-2010 of the global economy, has led say experts to the export of the Wahhabist kind of Islam to other countries in Middle East and South Asia. This they say made the evolution to democracy and peaceful coexistence difficult or impossible in the region. ...

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Chancellor Merkel tells the newspaper "Sachsische Zeitung," that she sees a follow through on policies on refugees after reestablishing control over EU borders as one of the lessons learned from last years refugee crisis. This has reduced the flow of refugees and Merkel says the process of deportation of non-German nationals who had no residency permit had to be done rigorously and speeded up.  Having said this Merkel defended her policy on refugees as "coherent," and was clear about it- "I do not see a change of course, but coherent work over many, many months." Responding to Pegida and anti-immigrant sentiment in Dresden, Merkel said it is important to remember the lessons of history, that "we are the people" slogan used by the far-right is misplaced, that in a free society "we all are the people."

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This analysis by Mackintosh in WSJ points out that the low to negative interest  policy of the ECB has hurt savers, bank profits, and makes the ECB unpopular, yet it has shown tangible signs of success in creating jobs. This is true even though unemployment in the EU is still over 10% in some countries. He says that the unemployment is back to where it was in Nov. 1998 before the euro. There are 7.5 million jobs created in EU since beginning of 2014, the point at which ECB went to ultra low interest rates. This is above the 6.3 million created in the U.S. upto 1st quarter 2016. Big difference now is that companies and households are borrowing as rates fell. Inflation at 0.2% in August 2016 for EU is a weak spot, but considering where the EU was just 2-3 years before in 2013, the change is a largely positive one.

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U.S. president Obama says at a rally in Philadelphia that Donald Trump is a fradulent champion of the working class, saying that Trump is simply exploiting the populist mood, that for 70 years he has shown no concern for working class people. Obama told the crowd he understood the public's mood for change and that he himself had benefitted from it. Yet he said that it did not add up. Obama said: "This guy is suddenly going to be your champion? I mean, he spent most of his life trying to stay as far away from working people as he could, and now this guy is going to be the champion of the working people. Huh." "I mean he wasn't going to let you in his golf course. He wasn't going to let you buy in his condo. And now suddenly this guy is going to be your champion." 

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Senator Manchin of West Virginia secured a transitional use of coal, oil and natural gas in the Biden legislation including Inflation Reduction Act. The Biden team eventually accepted the need for use of oil and natural gas in the transition to clean energy. During the first Trump term the support for fossil fuels was tempered by the fact that industries looked at the situation in the long term as administrations can change every 4 years, and continued the transition to clean energy. The combination of these factors means that the transition to clean energy continues in some form.

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Elsa Fornero is an economics professor who is Labor Minister in the government of Mario Monti. After several decades Italy has finally tackled the much needed changes to the 1970 Workers' Charter that forms the basis of Italy's labor laws. The Charter protected workers jobs but was designed during a different period and had long since lost its relevance in a modern economy. The laws led to Italy losing its competitiveness and entrenched small family firms in the economy. The new labor law protects the individual instead of jobs, by increasing the safety net to cover unemployed workers for shorter periods and lower benefits, and makes it possible for firms to layoff employees for economic reasons. Fornero says Italians need to recognize that work is not a right to be enshrined in laws but something that is earned through hard work. Article 18 of the Worker's Charter was originally intended to remove discriminatory practices in the workplace, but was enlarged to provide blanket protections to workers so that companies could not fire workers and avoided hiring. Under the new law discrimination is illegal, but now companies can layoff employees for economc reasons and not face long legal disputes and be forced to rehire the workers. The new law will increase productivity says Marcello Giustiniani, a labor specialist at Milan law firm Nonelli, Erede & Pappalardo. Italy's productivity gap with Germany has widened to over 30% since the introduction of the euro. The ASPI, new unemployment insurance plan, goes into effect in 2013, older programs will be phased out by 2017, giving time for the culture change in Italy for workers and business. Another major change is designed to help 2 million workers earning less than 18,000 euros. Businesses will have to give these workers proper contracts. Fornero's effort to tackle the pension system also includes linking retirement checks to how much is contributed over the lifetime- a practice common in other countries- not the final and highest salary. This simple change was not not implemented by 10 governments since a law was passed in 1995, showing why the Monti government was needed to get things done....

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The retirement age in France is much lower than other European countries. As people live longer and pension system finances are strained retirement ages are being increased. In France the retirement age is 60, and dates back to the Socialist president Francois Mitterand in the 1980's when the Socialists and the unions strongly supported a retirement age of 60 and a 35 hour work week. Socialist party former general secretary, Francois Hollande, calls changes "unjust reform." The Sarkozy government is treading softly by making a gradual change with the legal retirement age increasing by 4 months per year starting in July 2011, till it reaches 62 by 2018. The pension deficit is forecast at $40 billion a year for 2010. People in taxing jobs or in difficult occupations are exempted. By contrast Germany as plans to change the retirement age from 65 o 67. Britain and Italy have set this at 65.

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The iphone 16e 2025 for $599 more battery, more camera and larger screen offers more features at the lower end of the price range. One can see this as a phone that helps tackle the cost of living crisis that could hurt Apple sales from buyers with moderate incomes who are cutting back. It could also target a growing middle class buyer segment in India. The e in 16e could stand for economy buyers who want basics in the Apple and could attract upper income buyers of Xiaomi , Huawei and Samsung. Apple iphones have strengths in: seamless ecosytem navigation interface reliable and secure ios software higher resale value Apple discontinues support for older iphones after about 7 years. iPhone 13's can still be used in 2025 4 years old, a good time to change would be by 2026. iPhone 15 was introduced in 2023 which means a good time for changing it is 2028 using a 5 year change which balances the need to update and  update to have access to newer iphones. ...

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Paul Krugman in NYT outlines the options president Biden faces if Republicans decide not to increase the debt ceiling in the House of Representatives. All the alternatives are better than defaulting on the national debt. All options also create some short term volatility in financial markets before things stabilize. Biden and Democrats refuse to allow a repeat of negotiations of the kind Mr. Obama made with Republicans on the debt ceiling. The cuts a small faction in the Republican party is asking for come from spending that has already been approved by the House. It is also spending that meets the needs of the American people during a cost of living crisis, and for national priorities in fighting climate change, health and defense. Krugman also points out that cuts to welfare spending won't put more people to work as the unemployment rate is at a new low, and the theory behind it in this situation only deprives the neediest from getting help during a cost of living crisis. ...

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The former commander of the NATO US forces in Europe 2014-2018, Gen. Ben Hodges, says the war could end in 2023 with air support to Ukraine. Hodges tells DW.com's Ines Pohl, that the only red line for Washington's support in Ukraine is "boots on the ground." Hodges says Ukraine must retake Crimea to maintain the international rules based order and the UN Charter.

About the Russian offensive in Feb 2023 Hodges says Russia was attempting to "surge" a new offensive but it does not have the capability to launch a "major' one. "They don't have the armored forces, the ability to break through," and that it will not change the "overall operational environment in Ukraine." This is the first serious assessment of the new phase in the war on an overall basis looking at the larger picture of Russian and Ukraine plus outside support capabilities. 

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India takes on the G20 presidency on December 1, 2023. Modi's phrase "this is not an era of war" becomes the classic part of India's vision for G20, that the next generation will miss out on development if conflict takes the place of cooperation. India stands firm on this point at the G20 and it is accepted by world leaders at the summit in Indonesia and makes it to the joint declaration as a key point. Modi also extended his hand to China's Xi Jinping showing where India stands. India's connections to Indonesia from ancient times, from the Buddhist and Hindu periods of Indian civilization, the connections to Hanuman that extend to Indonesia, were mentioned by Mr. Modi as he took on the role held by Mr. Widodo of Indonesia. India offers a new path forward and a lifestyle suited to the period of tackling climate change through its ancient Yogic civilization, Mr. Modi said.

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In a policy unchanged since 1950's women in China retire at age 50 and men at age 60 years. China is aging faster than the US and it's population that is over 60 years is 20% of the population. Over the 5 years to 2025 about 40 million people will retire, about the size of the population of Canada. There will be 36 million fewer people in the working age population ages 16-59 to support them. Chinese migrant workers and families work longer hours than white collar workers making it difficult to raise the retirement age to European levels in a short time. The government's approach is to get public support by creating awareness about the problem and change the retirement age gradually over a longer period. The first step will be bringing the retirement age of women to the level of men. The 10 year gap in retirement age of men and women is not found in any advanced economy.