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U.S. investor preference for value stocks over fast growing companies with high valuations and P/E ratios in April 2014.

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Russia is embarking on a huge wave of infrastructure spending and construction of roads, airports and railways. Russia is planning to raise about $1 trillion over the next 10 years to for infrastructure investment with 80% of it coming from private sources. Russia is planning to construct 39000 miles of new roads and 5300 miles of railways by 2015. The first major project is the Western high speed diameter near St Petersburg n eight lane 28 mile expressway that will link St Petersburg with expressways to Helsinki and Moscow by 2015. By early next year the local government will select one of 4 international groups, Bechtel, Bouygues of France, Deutsche Bank and a fourth group. The winning consortium would work under an arrangement that it will operate the expressway for 30 years charging tolls starting at about $1.60 per car. For foreign investors the expressways as toll highways can generate reliable returns that are better than the equity markets considering the risks in equity markets, and this is how the toll highways would be financed. There is some risk involved though for the investors because toll highways is a new concept for drivers in Russia, and construction costs may go up significantly if an investment boom takes shape (cement prices doubled in the past year and are the highest in Europe) which would cut into returns. But the investment community is looking at it as an opportunity considering the number of American and European investors showing interest. Also with Russia's high growth rates well into the future just as in China and India, a growing middle class and growing automobile numbers, this should be a decent bet for investors. ...

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Vast majority of DJT supporters 88% (down from 95%), approve of the president DJT's overall performance. On tariffs and Big Beautiful Bill. Democrats vastly disapproving, the messaging on cuts to Medicaid even though it's funding had grown close to $1 trillion ($909 billion in 2024), the uncertainty on tariffs even though the $1 trillion China trade surplus needed serious corrective action, federal government job cuts, leads to much larger proportions of Democrats opposing than Republicans supporting leading to about 60% unfavorable overall on tariffs and Big Beautiful Bill. Such unpopular action is sometimes the role of government like the action to rebuild the trading system and bring restraint to runaway spending on benefits, and can be overcome with a strong economy and capital investment for growth in future years. Another problem for the DJT administration is in the messaging to get the message across when some of the president's actions can be inconsistent or appear inconsistent. Add to this the distractions such as international diplomacy on Ukraine that take the president's time. Yet changes were needed in the international trading system and tough action is sometimes necessary when most countries and groupings, China EU, Canada, Mexico, can game the system their benefit to the detriment of the American people and jobs/communities at home. On the Big Beautiful Bill at the rate of growth in funding for Medicaid to $909 billion in 2024 from $2 billion at its inception under LBJ in the 1960's some restraint on spending would ultimately keep such help flowing where it is needed over the long haul. ...

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Brazil's ever increasing production of soyabeans and investments in Brazil by China and US's Cargill ADM result in a oversupply of soyabeans in world's markets leading to lower prices for American farmers. 70% of soyabeans imports by China were from Brazil in 2024 and Cofco state owned agricultural company in China is building a large port terminal on Brazil's coast to handle soyabeans and other exports. Trade tensions with the US mean there are no written agreements farmers can count on for soyabean exports to China. China purchased 13 million metric tons from Argentina last month and committed to buying 25 million metric tons in 2026-2028. Argentina lifted its 26% export tax for the first $7 billion in agricultural exports to bolster it's peso recently. US is turning to other markets in Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Europe to make up for volume lost to Brazil. For September and October there is a 45% increase in US exports in 2025 resulting from these non-Chinese buyers. No mention is made of India, yet India could in future be a significant buyer of soyabeans because of thenutritional value of soyabeans in an anti-cancer diet and the high protein content which would make Indian diets healthier. In agriculture farmers are not the ones who develop new tastes and new trends in new markets, yet this effort should be part of farmer's outreach to other nations and other cultural food habits with shifts to healthy nutrition. ...

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As the European leaders Starmer, Macron, Merz gather together, huddle together at meetings in London, Paris and Brussels, as the US under DJT and Rubio disengage from NATO and perceived expansion, Ariane Chemin gives this report and video in Le Monde on the situation in classrooms, around Square in the centrer of Kviv, at destroyed power plants, and at destroyed buildings in Kviv. Russian drone attacks on Kviv are leaving residents without electricity and without sleep. This is also what Europeans in France and Germany, and Britain, are seeing on news, video and on television.  The last peace initiative stalled after the hopes raised from the Alaska meeting of Putin and the US president. Efforts to get the Russians on board with US envoys in Moscow fail when the European leaders are absent in the talks, and when Russia insists on the 20% of the Donbass and eastern regions it does not control, and limits on Ukraine defense. Ukraine modifies the proposals and Russia insists on territorial concessions. A report in Germany's DW.com from Ukraine calls this "absurd." A new element emerges in this conflict in December 2025 when one sees this in the context of European history where such struggles between European powers happened repeatedly since 1500, with some of them in the period after 1700 involving Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Britain, France, Spain, Prussia and rest of Germany split into many states. That pattern has relevance today because when one power whether France, Austria-Hungary or Russia became dominant the other European powers acted together to keep the balance in Europe.  ...

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The CDU convention in Leipzig, Germany passed a compromise resolution that lays the ground for a EU country to voluntarily leave the euro zone and still maintain membership in the European Union. The resolution called for changes to the Lisbon Treaty to allow a euro zone member that is "unable or unwilling to permanently obey the rules connected to the common currency... to voluntarily... leave the euro zone without leaving the European Union." Merkel told delegates that Europe must change the EU treaty to allow for strong automatic sanctions for violations of the monetary union treaty. "We need to send a clear signal. We don't whine; we don't complain. We know instead that we have a job to do." On the issue of voluntary withdrawal from the eurozone, the earlier decision by Merkel and President Sarkozy of France- when prime minister Papandreou of Greece decided to put the issue of membership to a referendum- was to tell Greece that leaving the eurozone would mean leaving the European Union. This CDU resolution provides a basis for Greece to resolve its debt problems outside the euro currency, as experts suggest....

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Gives a long list of factors that are increasing price pressures in the US, Europe, China and India. Different factors in different areas all adding p to create a different environment than that we faced 10-20 years ago as inflation slowed with rising low cost imports from Asia. Not only imports but also domestic pressures in terms of very little spare production capacity in the US and Europe, and the shortage of skilled professionals and engineers is creating price pressures there as companies pass on higher labor costs and materials costs. See also industries like steel where prices are high because of consolidation in the steel industry which will keep them high for the foreseeable future.

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Honda will invest $750 million in the GM Cruise LLC, followed by $2 billion invested in development of self-driving autonomous cars over 12 years. Honda takes a 5.7% stake in GM Cruise, with Softbank having a 19.6% stake after investment of $2.2 billion in June 2018. Honda's investment with GM Cruise LLC which is a separate entity created by GM to develop autonomous self-driving cars, is a culture change for Honda. In the past Honda prided itself on its tech prowess, now this is changing. Automakers are likely to team up as they face competition from Waymo, a unit of Google's Alphabet, setup in 2016.

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In this op-ed in the NYT Matthew D'Ancona, former deputy editor of the Daily Telegraph, is sharply critical of British prime minister Theresa May for planning to remain in office after the election losses of the Conservative party in the June 2017 election. He calls her decision deplorable and the alliance with the Democratic Unionist party of Northern Ireland with its 10 seats and less than 1% of the total vote a huge mistake, because of its extremely conservative views on social issues which are out of touch with socially liberal conservative voters. His prediction is that the parliamentary majority will be under constant attack, making governing difficult. He expects the government to collapse.

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Spain's Mariano Rajoy loses a no confidence motion in parliament and resigns as prime minister in May 2018. He is replaced by Pedro Sanchez of the opposition Socialist Party. It has only 84 seats in the 350 member parliament making his government short lived and paving the way for new elections. Rajoy came in after the 2009 financial crisis assuming the prime minister position in 2011. He has governed throughout the period of the economic crisis and high unemployment in Spain during the eurozone debt crisis, the collapse of the housing boom, the banking bailout and austerity programs in Spain. Economic growth resumed gradually since 2013.

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UK's energy company, BG Group PLC is offering 12.9 billion Australian dollars for Origin Energy. Origin Energy Australia's biggest gas producer is also the owner of large coalbed methane assets, known as coal-seam. Trillions of cubic metres of natural gas are trapped in Australia's coal seams. Extracting this methane has been considered too costly until now as natural gas prices have risen significantly. There are environmental benefits as coal seam gas does not produce any sulfur dioxide or particulates, and emits only 50% of the carbon dioxide emitted when coal is burned.BG already has plans to spend A$8 billion on one LNG plant with capacity for 4 million metric tons a year of LNG. LNG is natural gas, mostly methane cooled to liquid form for transport by ship. This would use the coal-seam assets purchased from Queensland Gas Company for A$664 million as part of plans to start the LNG plant near the port town of Gladstone, in the state of Queensland. The Origin coal seam assets could provide gas for a second plant at the Queensland site. BG has an LNG supply deal to provide 3 million tons a year to Singapore from 2012. BG has prior focus in the Atlantic region with operations in Brazil, the UK, North Sea, and Trinidad and Tobago, the Queensland deal and acquisition of Origin gives BG an entry in Asian LNG markets. This will be the second biggest takeover of an Australian company after Mexican cement maker Cemex's acquisition of Rinker Group for A$16.7 billion....

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Abrams and De Acosta, Bellman of the WSJ look at growth and modernization in India in comparison with China and other countries. GDP per capita would take 10 years to reach the stage at which spending power of the people equals that in China today. At one point in 1980 China and South Korea were closer in GDP per capita than India. It is only now that India is accelerating towards the scale and depth of modernization done in China.  India's growth rate of over 7% is likely to surge after some of the problems in bad loans in the banking sector are cleared up. A wave of technological advances would help accelerate growth. Ease of doing business and foreign investment are on upward trend, for absorbing new technology from advanced countries. A shift to very low prices for data use with rapid development of 4G services is one of the recent achievements. Manufacturing growth remains a challenge to be tackled to create the jobs needed.  Revamping tax structures such as GST and shifting the economy towards use of electronic cash has increased revenues needed to invest in infrastructure, health and education.  As much of the potential for future growth comes from people at the lower income levels, improving social indicators such as sanitation, cleanliness, farmer incomes, universal bank accounts, universal access to health care, are steps that lay the foundation for the future. ...

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Biden said that after the pandemic which took a million lives and caused grave threats to mental health in the country the country has come out of these depths with record 15 million jobs created, unemployment at record lows of 3%, and inflation down from 9% to 3%. And huge investments in clean energy and in infrastructure under laws he had passed with bipartisan support generated from his decades of experience in Congress. "In fact my policies have attracted $650 Billion of private sector investments in clean energy and advanced manufacturing creating tens of thousands of jobs here in America!  Thanks to our Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, 46,000 new projects have been announced across your communities – modernizing our roads and bridges, ports and airports, and public transit systems.  Removing poisonous lead pipes so every child can drink clean water without risk of getting brain damage.  Providing affordable high speed internet for every American no matter where you live.  Urban, suburban, and rural communities — in red states and blue.  Record investments in tribal communities.  Because of my investments, family farms are better be able to stay in the family and children and grandchildren won’t have to leave home to make a living."  ...

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Krugman points to the need for action on revaluation of the yuan, and sees the vote in the House of Representatives sponsored by Sander Levin as a necessary step to get China to act. He sees China as dragging its feet on this issue for many years, and the need to keep the heat on US policy makers, who have acted very passively on this issue. He describes the US policymakers as being infuriatingly, incredibly passive in the light of the Chinese inaction and stalling on currency appreciation. China he says denies manipulating the exchange rate, even as $2.4 trillion foreign currency was purchased by China. Krugman says China is not letting what is a natural process to unfold that would help the world economy as a whole to recover. Its manipulation of the exchange rate, is in effect subsidizing its exports at the expense of other countries like the US. See the link to Roubini, who shows how this is bad for China. Roubini says China will see a growth collapse in 2-3 years, if it does not change direction and let the yuan appreciate. He says it is in effect a large transfer of income from Chinese households to Chinese state owned companies which is dangerous because of increasing misallocation of resources and real estate speculation. See David Barboza for information on the real estate speculation of these Chinese state owned companies. When all this information is added up, it shows China's serious need to act. This would make possible a transition to a new model of development that relies on domestic consumption, and bettter allocation of resources and investment. ...

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Greek unemployment is up to 11% and this does not reflect the women who are not registering as unemployed. About 100,000 public sector workers will be let go by 2013 as the austeity plan takes effect. The three year reform programme from the IMF, the European Commission and the ECB tries to cut the budget deficit from 13.6% to 2.7% of GDP in a quick three years even as the econmy is shrinking. The criticism of Germany is relatively less, but there is strong resentment in Greece for the IMF program with 60% of Greeks opposing it. And in Germany Merkel faces voter resentment of having to pay for other EU member countries mistakes in the election in North Rhine-Westphalia, where her CDU and FDP coalition faces a tough challenge. Intenationally Merkel is facing tough criticism for waffling as the euro currency faced a serious threat. The whole European Union plan was being put to the test resulting in the size of the bailout growing from $60 billon to $160 billion in a few weeks, many experts calling it ineptitude....

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Capital spending by oil companies after you take out the 10% inflation in the cost of most drilling epuipment and people isn't growing by much. In 2007 spending on exploration and production totaled $270 billion, increasing by 10% over 2006 with most of the increase in cost coming from higher costs of everything from rigs to labor and oil field services. And oil companies are pasing back huge earnings to shareholders in the form of buybacks and share purchases, the top 5 western oil companies will have spent an estimated $179 billion in share buybacks in the last 4 years. And the the companies are not able to replace reserves that are used up each year in production. As aresult they are basically shrinking and becoming smaller in the whole oil picture. Only in 2008 is the spending picking up a bit but only by a small amount after one takes out inflation, and that because there may be more confidence that oil prices will hold up better in the long run to justify the higher costs of finding oil....

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Hubbard was Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Bush. His plan is for the government and Congress to allow all residential, mortgages on private residences to be refinanced into 30 year fixed rate mortgages at 5.25% and place those mortgages under Freddie and Fannie. The idea is to have a low enough rate to support house prices. Where the homes are worth less than the total amount of the loan balance the mortgages would be refinanced into a 30 year fixed rate loan to be held by a new agency modeled on the 1930's era Homeowners Loan Corporation. New mortgages would be made of upto 95% of the current value of a home, with owners and servicers of the loan splitting the losses on refinancing the mortgage with the government agency. Servicers would have to accept refinancing on all or none of their mortgages, no cherry picking. And the government could take an equity position in return for the mortgage writedown so that taxpayers do well with a better housing market....

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Samuelson points to the risks to the American economic growth from excessive health care costs. This is hurting take home pay and shows up in consumer spending. It is hurting government spending in other areas such as needed infrastructure spending and efforts to reduce the deficit. This hurts private capital investment to create jobs because of lower demand from constricted consumer spending. The U.S. budget has as its largest single expense 27% on health care compared to 20% on defense the next largest expense, with growth in health care spending taking this to one third of the budget in coming years. Without addressing health care, says Samuelson, the Supercommitte in Congress even if successful at deficit reduction will basically have failed to do its job, and it did not have the time, resources or conviction to do this. According to a new study from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), U.S. healthcare spending per person is $7,960 per person in 2009. This compares with Norway $5,352, Britain $3,487, France $3, 978, an OECD average of $3,233. Life expectancy in the U.S. is 78.2 years, compared to Japan 83 years, OECD average of 79.5 years. Chile and the Czech Republic have life expectancy equal to the U.S. Except for cancer care where the five year survival rate is 89.3% in the U.S. and the OECD average is 83.5%, the U.S. lags far behind in much needed critical areas such as diabetes and asthma. Rates of emergency hospitalization for asthma are 3 times that in France and 6 times that in Germany and Italy. The U.S. has fewer doctors per thousand population and higher cost per medical procedure- with more frequent use of the costliest procedures- creating a supply shortage that induces higher prices, and less preventive and early action care through physician visits. The number of practicing U.S. doctors is 2.4 per thousand population in the U.S. compared to 3.1 per thousand for the OECD average; and number of annual doctor consultations 3.9 per capita in the U.S. versus 6.5 for the OECD average. Appendectomy cost $7,962 in the U.S., $5,004 in Canada and $2,943 in Germany. Coronary angioplasty cost $14,378 in the U.S., compared to $9,296 in Sweden, and $7,027 in France. Knee replacement cost $14,946 in the U.S., $12,424 in France, and $9,910 in Canada. Knee replacements, angioplasties and MRI exams are twice as common in the U.S. compared to the OECD countries. ...

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Drop in immigration reduces labor supply keeping the unemployment rate steady even as hiring cools off. Compared to the roughly 1 million in 2019 net migration was about 3 million in 2022 and 2 million in 2024. In 2025 this is now about a negative 250,000 or quarter of million negative migration. Out migration is expected at about 1 million. This means that about 35,000 non farm jobs created between May and July 2025 haven't increased the unemployment rate as fewer new workers join the workforce from illegal migrants. This has to have an effect for wages for the workers in construction and farm work as employers compete for a smaller number of existing workers though economists and the financial media rarely talk about this. This was needed following decades in which the labor supply increases from illegal migrants meant no pressures on employers to pay more than the minimum wage kept artificially low. This means that even well meaning Democrats who clamored for increasing minimum wage were doing exactly the opposite of what was needed for the existing worker base wages in construction, farm work, and household help, because of their sentiments or because of the immigrant wing in their party. Note that about a third of maids, a third of construction workers, and 25% of landscaping workers are not legal migrants. Agriculture Department estimates are for about 40% of farm workers to be without legal work authorization. ...

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The rally of about 1 million people in Berlin shows Germans are awakening to the need for vigilance in a democracy. Berliners and Germans were showing their awareness of Thomas Jefferson's words that eternal vigilance is the price of freedom. In the fragmented world of German politics where the main parties Social Democrats and Christian Democrats, the parties of Wily Brandt and Konrad Adenauer that built modern Germany command less than 20% support each, the need was never greater for a bulwark of freedom and free people in the center of Europe.