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Through 2015 oil companies expect to spend $15 billion a year on pipelines and to retrofit refineries to process heavy sands Canadian crude, and production of heavy sands crude is expected to go up to 3.7 million barrels a day by 2020 from 1.2 million barrels a day today. This is changing the way crude pipeline map looks as the diminished supply from Mexico and Venezuela means less crude going north, and more going south from Canada.

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Brazil, a country of income inequality, is becoming transformed by trade and growth and urbanization into a middle class country- defined as those with a job in the formal economy, access to credit and owership of a car or bike, with a monthly income over $600. According to the Fundacao Getulio Vargas, this part of the population has increased from 44% to 52%. And the PT or Workers Party is still popular, with President Da Silva high popularity.

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Should Arthur Levinson and some of the team he has assembled at Genentech leave it will be a big loss for Roche, as it was his team that helped bring a series of new drugs to the market such as Avastin, Herceptin, and Rituxan to bring Genentech sales from $1 billion in 1999 to $9 billion in 2007. As drug companies buy biotechs in large numbers, with $70 billion in deals this year almost twice the toal for 2007, the question remains whether the drug companies have succeeded in retaining talent as consolidation yields cost savings but does not improve drug discovery. Drug companies are struggling with this, and a couple of models have emerged for keeping minds engaged in scientific discovery satisfied that they have the freedom to operate as they always have and work with the teams they have assembled, similiar to the work style and in the similiar culture as before. Almost like walking into the offices they use as if its like before. J&J has come up with a hub and spoke model to acquire companies and then leave them alone- preserving their management teams, unique cultures and brands. Centocor was bought in 1999 by J&J and 10 of the top executives stayed on and developed Remicade, a drug for inflammatory disease that has sales of $3.3 billion. Glaxo has developed a new structure under new CEO Andrew Witty, which breaks up the primary research labs into "discovery performance units" or DPUs, which also include new biotech startups. In April Glaxo acquired Sitris, a Cambridge, Massachusetts startup. The company had come up with a new science for tackling heart disease, diabetes and other diseases associated with aging. Harvard trained scientist and CEO, Christoph Westphal, went with Glaxo turning down other companies because the independence of the DPU appealed to him. Each DPU has a 3 year budget and this also appealed to Westphal. He could walk into the labs, says Westphal as if nothing had changed. Is Roche making a mistake in acquiring Genentech when it could have left it alone. Are the consolidation savings worth it if some of the discovery team at Genentech leaves and there is the feeling that the culture will change, and if Levinson feels that he was not consulted about Roche's move. These are questions that remain even when Roche's CEO, Severin, says he does not want to change things at Genentech because Roche's actions will speak louder than its words. ...

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The Markit/HSBC Purchasing Manager's Index for China declined to 49.6 in Jan 2014 from 50.5 in Dec. 2013. A score below 50 shows contraction. China's GDP growth declined to 7.7% in the 4th quarter of 2013.

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Foreclosures and the impact on Lowe's and Home Depot, which is a net negative- as more homes are going into foreclosure and being neglected, than coming out of foreclosure and needing repairs.

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The British economy has contracted for 6 consecutive quarters. Third quarter 2009 show a 5.2% decline over the same quarter of 2008, and a 0.4% decline over prior quarter.

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The biggest part of oil use in the USA is in transportation and this is where the savings have to come from. Americans were driving twice as many miles a day as they did in the last oil crisis in 1979. So a lot of the savings are to be expected in fewer miles driven as prices rise. The other saving will have to come from more efficient cars with better fuel efficiency and use of alternative fuels. Americans consumed 9.1 million barrels a day of gsoline in April 2008, two million barrels a day more than in April 1979. In 1979 of every 100 barrels of oil produced globally 29 wnet into American transportation, homes and power plants. This figure is only slightly down to 24 barrels so there is much room for significant reduction in a world economy where new technology can be accessed and the Japanese model for conservation shows further gains have already been made in other countries. So Chinese and Indian demand and demand in other newly developing countries will play a part but the US and Europe by showing the way in new technologies that can be adapted for use to reduce overall emissions and to get more out of each barrel of oil would find that these technologies are attractive to China and India in stretching a limited resource for increasing numbers of users in large demographics. Figures from Cambridge Energy Associates....

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Reited Gen Gantz appears to be the likely head of a new government after winning the most seats in parliament. Policy towards Iran is not likely to change. But a Gantz led government is likely to reduce the divisiveness in the country, and provide a more unifying effort in Israeli society. The role of religious groups in daily life would also be held back. Better relations with Jewish people in America would result and peace negotiations with Palestinians would be encouraged. The prime minister would concentrate less power in his hands. By temperament Gantz is a quiet leader who preferred not to engage in the back and forth attacks in the election campaign even when Mr. Netanyahu  did not hesitate to do so. As the head of the military from 2011 to 2015 he also has the confidence of people in Israel looking for a new start after a long period of Netanyahu rule. The current prime minister could be indicted soon after a hearing next month on charges of bribery and fraud. Mr. Trump has said that U.S. relationship is not with any leader but with the country Israel. Gantz makes it clear after Netanyahu's style of politics has rocked Israel for many years- "We will bring about a real change in priorities, and heal Israeli society in all its parts." Mr. Gantz has said that he think the Obama administration could have done more in securing a better nuclear deal with Iran. Yet at an event in 2015 when the deal was being set, Mr Gantz said he also saw "the half full part of the glass." That the deal would keep Iran 10 or 15 years from making a nuclear weapon "with the right price." At this juncture in world affairs this is important because Mr. Trump has shown flexibility in dealing with Iran following the firing of National Security Adviser Bolton. Trump held back on a response at several points during the attacks in the Straits of Hormuz and the taking of ships hostage by Iran and the UK. The attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the difficulty of protecting oil installations in the region, Iran's increasingly difficult position under tight U.S. sanctions and pressure on Asian buyers of Iranian oil to cut back purchases, the efforts of Japan and India dependent on Saudi and Iranian oil to reduce tensions, all point to a new policy in the region with a new Israeli government playing a useful role to keep policy control in the hands of Asian countries dependent on oil supplies for their economies, and in the hands of a U.S. president better informed about a policy course that is in U.S. interests of avoiding unnecessary engagements overseas when there are other pressing priorities. ...

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WSJ reporter Monica Langley provides a glimpse behind the scenes of how Donald Trump comes up with his attacks on rivals, and statements on immigration, terrorism, refugees. Trump pays close attention to what is riling voters on any particular week, but other rival politicians are not willing to say. He looks for what resonates with the public, and in today's environment where politicians are cautious, careful and plodding, this strategy works. Donald usually puts down a few points on his private plane, looks at reports from campaign staff, yet makes all the decisions himself on what and how to say it. His memory helps, he says. And he has a flair for words, sounding uncouth at times, but yet choosing words carefully enough to sound reasoanble to his audience. In Jan 2016 this approach has worked for Trump in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, stalling progress by rival Ted Cruz, and holding back other rivals. Yet this approach has its risks as the primary season progresses. One of the changes in the Republican party politics in 2016 is the emergence of two candidates Donald Trump representing the white working class, and Ted Cruz representing evangelicals, who are both strident and willing to take strong positions on issues in striking contrast to leading Democrats. Trump on China, immigration, refugees, and Cruz on taxes, cultural issues for evangelicals, IRS, Affordable Health Care Act, and both candidates on terrorism. ...

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Public opposition in the summer of 2012 to the restarting of nuclear plants by prime minister Noda. A huge rally was held in central Tokyo with about 100,000 protesters.

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Reforms planned by the administration of prime minister, Naoto Kan. Plans to raise the consumption tax, to make changes to social security, and to commit Japan to join the Trans Pacific Partnership. Japan's business community supports the plan to join the free trade community called the Trans Pacific Partnership. This group consists of USA, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Peru, Chile. South Korea has signed free trade agreements with the USA and the EU, and Japanese business does not want to be left behind.

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Robert Shiller of Yale University, calls for revenue sharing by the federal government with local governments. This should go beyond the $26 billion approved this month for aid to local governments, designed to assist with Medicaid and hiring teachers. It is difficult to create jobs quickly and disperse and use money wisely, without the help of local governments, military or nonprofit organizations- as these organizations have the necessary infrastructure that can be used to get things done quickly. He cites the Civilian Conservation Corps created by FDR, using the Army as the organizational framework.

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Some of the hrdles Blu Ray is facing are the price of Blu-Ray disc players priced by Sony at $399 vs. $60 for a standard machine, and BluRay discs priced at $11 more than regular DVD's. Sony has said that the price of the disc players won't fall below $200 till the end of the year by which time consumers in the USA may further tighten their spending. An April report by Sanford Bernstein & Co. predicts sales of BluRay discs will add only 1% to sales of DVD's this year, so the outlook is very uncertain for BluRay. Part of the problem is that its a discretionary spending item and consumers may ask themselves why spend so much on the discs when there is not a signifcant appreciable difference in performance? Blu Ray discs do not provide that much of a noticeable difference except for action films.

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In the small Dutch town of Delft a factory of Unilever that operated for 124 years is now closing after a 4 week strike and settlement of $25 miillon pounds. Its part of Unilevers restructuring plan led by a former Navy officer with Motorola experience. Unilever has far smaller sales than P&G but more employees and it has lagged behind in responding to a changing market while P&G has been moving with changing market trends and making quicker decisions. To speed up decisionmaking and get people to perform the roles needed by the market, the right people in different jobs its scrapping the opld system and letting go half of the executives in the company- a big move. Roles are being reassigned based on market needs, leadership skills, and sales and profits of divisions and growth areas.

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The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact led by Japan and the U.S. moves to the next stage with legislation introduced by Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden in the U.S. Congress for granting trade promotion authority to the U.S. president. This would facilitate the negotiation of an agreement leading to concessions by different countries. Talks between Japan and the U.S. intensified with the U.S. president Obama saying in his 2015 State of the Union message that China wanted to write the rules for trade in Asia, and asking why the U.S. should not work to write its own rules. Defense Secretary, Aston Carter, called it more important than another aircraft carrier. Support from Europe, India and other countries for the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as a rival to the U.S. dominated World Bank and IMF, also give urgency to the TPP. The TPP countries, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Peru and Chile, make up over $400 billion of about $4 trillion in U.S. trade, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The TPP is now seen not just a free trade pact, but also as away to counter China's influence in Asia. Experts see the Obama administration as having bungled its handling of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which the U.S. did not join, and its allies in Europe, other Asian countries including India, decided to join as founding members. Democrats in Congress led by Senator Schumer, Warren, oppose the legislation granting fast track for free trade pacts citing the loss of jobs and lowering of wages for workers in manufacturing in the U.S., with only about a dozen Democrats favoring the legislation, leading to a split in the party. Projections by Peter Petri, Michael Plummer, Fan Zhai, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, show a net negative impact on depressed wage sectors such as U.S. manufacturing with additional $45 billion in U.S. imports and $35 billion in exports for heavy manufacturing from the TPP free trade pact, and additional $33 billion of U.S. imports and $10 billion exports in light manufacturing by 2025. Higher wage sectors such as U.S. Services including IT get a boost with additional $42 billion in exports and $ 8 billion imports. Agriculture shows insignificant gains with additional exports of $2 billion and imports of 0.5 billion. The auto and transport sector disproportionately favors Japan with $33 billion in additional U.S. imports and $8 billion in exports. ...

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In a meeting at 10 Downing Street on July 25, 2016, British prime minister Theresa May and Ireland's prime minister Enda Kenny, said there was strong will on both sides to maintain the Common Travel Area, which allows passport free travel between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Ms May also stated that Brexit should not affect the gains made by the Ireland peace process. Kenny said that it is in all our interests to see a "prosperous and outward looking UK which retains a close relationship with the EU."